(SWIO-RAFI): Component 1 - Hazard

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(SWIO-RAFI): Component 1 - Hazard Southwest Indian Ocean Risk Assessment Financing Initiative (SWIO-RAFI): Component 1 - Hazard FINAL Report Submitted to the World Bank June 1st, 2016 SWIO RAFI Component 1 Report - FINAL Copyright 2016 AIR Worldwide Corporation. All rights reserved. Trademarks AIR Worldwide is a registered trademark in the European Union. Confidentiality AIR invests substantial resources in the development of its models, modeling methodologies and databases. This document contains proprietary and confidential information and is intended for the exclusive use of AIR clients who are subject to the restrictions of the confidentiality provisions set forth in license and other nondisclosure agreements. Contact Information If you have any questions regarding this document, contact: AIR Worldwide Corporation 388 Market Street, Suite 750 San Francisco, CA 94111 USA Tel: (415) 912-3111 Fax: (415) 912-3112 i SF15-1061 COMP1REP SWIO RAFI Component 1 Report - FINAL Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1 Limitations .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 2 Hazard Catalogs and Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Tropical Cyclone .................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1 Wind ................................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Precipitation Hazard and Flooding ................................................................................................................ 9 2.1.3 Storm Surge Flooding ..................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.4 Tropical Cyclone Consequence Summary ................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Non-Tropical Cyclone Flood .............................................................................................................................. 13 2.2.1 Non-Tropical Cyclone Consequence Summary .......................................................................................... 16 2.3 Earthquake............................................................................................................................................................ 16 2.3.1 Ground Shaking .............................................................................................................................................. 18 2.3.2 Tsunami ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 2.3.3 Earthquake Consequence Summary ............................................................................................................ 21 2.4 Landslide (Comoros) ........................................................................................................................................... 21 2.5 Summary and Data Limitations......................................................................................................................... 23 3 Hazard Profiles ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 3.1 Comoros ................................................................................................................................................................ 27 3.2 Madagascar .......................................................................................................................................................... 28 3.3 Mauritius .............................................................................................................................................................. 29 3.4 Seychelles .............................................................................................................................................................. 30 3.5 Zanzibar ................................................................................................................................................................ 31 3.6 Marquee Events ................................................................................................................................................... 32 ii SF15-1061 COMP1REP SWIO RAFI Component 1 Report - FINAL 4 Appendix A – Detailed Model Documentation .................................................................................................. 38 4.1 Tropical Cyclone .................................................................................................................................................. 38 4.1.1 Event Generation ............................................................................................................................................ 38 4.1.2 Stochastic Catalog Summary Statistics ......................................................................................................... 44 4.1.3 Local Intensity Calculation ............................................................................................................................ 50 4.1.4 Storm Surge Flooding ..................................................................................................................................... 61 4.1.5 References ........................................................................................................................................................ 65 4.2 Non-Tropical Cyclone Flooding ........................................................................................................................ 67 4.2.1 Generation of Stochastic Catalog for Non-Tropical Cyclone Rainfall...................................................... 69 4.2.2 Non-Tropical Cyclone Induced Precipitation ............................................................................................. 71 4.2.3 Non-Tropical Cyclone Flooding.................................................................................................................... 73 4.2.4 Precipitation Hazard Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 74 4.3 Earthquake............................................................................................................................................................ 94 4.3.1 Earthquakes in the Southwest Indian Ocean .............................................................................................. 94 4.3.2 Local Intensity Calculation .......................................................................................................................... 120 4.3.3 Tsunamis in the Southwest Indian Ocean ................................................................................................. 129 4.3.4 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 137 4.4 Landslide ............................................................................................................................................................ 139 4.4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 139 4.4.2 Landslide Susceptibility ............................................................................................................................... 139 4.4.3 Brief Summary of Methodologies ............................................................................................................... 140 4.4.4 Data Sources .................................................................................................................................................. 141 4.4.5 Assumptions and Limitations of Methodology and Data ....................................................................... 146 4.4.6 Discussion and Results ................................................................................................................................. 147 4.4.7 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 149 iii SF15-1061 COMP1REP SWIO RAFI Component 1 Report - FINAL 4.4.8 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 151 5 Appendix B – Consequence Database ................................................................................................................ 154 5.1 Consequence Database for Tropical Cyclones and Flooding ...................................................................... 154 5.1.1 Data Sources .................................................................................................................................................
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