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1.3 Mangroves and Climate Change in Mozambique

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1.3 Mangroves and Climate Change in Mozambique CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN THE QUIRIMBAS NATIONAL PARK, MOZAMBIQUE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY FOR QUIRIMBAS NATIONAL PARK WWF MCO 2015 This publication, Climate Change Impact on Mangrove Ecosystem and Development of an Adaptation Strategy For Quirimbas National Park, was prepared as part of the efforts of WWF to support the national interventions for climate change adaptations and sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. Published by the World Wide Fund for Nature – Mozambique Country Office in 2015 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Disclaimers This technical report is the result of the mangrove assessment and climate change adaptation of QNP. All conclusions and recommendations given are those considered appropriate at the time of the project development. They may be modified in the light of further knowledge at future subsequent stages. The opinions expressed in this document are those of the author and co-authors to reflect the WWF project objectives. The use of information from this publication for publicity or advertising is not permitted. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention of infringement on trademark or copyright laws. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. © Maps, photos and illustrations as specified. Collaborators and Reviewers Author: Denise Nicolau, Forest Program, WWF MCO Collaborators: Célia Macamo and Hugo Mabilana, Eduardo Mondlane University WWF Team: Mark Hoekstra, Luis Augusto, Augusto Omar, Manuel Nota, João Manuel Field data support: Dinis Chichava, Gonçalves Barnabé, Teófilo Damião, Jacson Cotimane, and Dórsia Langa. Photos credits: WWF MCO Source: WWF MCO Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 7 1. Background ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview of mangroves .............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Climate Change ........................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Mangroves and Climate Change in Mozambique ....................................................... 3 1.4 Climate change: history and predictions ..................................................................... 5 1.4.1 Mozambique Climate ........................................................................................... 5 1.4.2 Mozambican Historical Climate Data .................................................................. 6 1.4.3 Future Changes in Climate for Mozambique ..................................................... 10 2. Project Context ................................................................................................................. 12 2.1 Project Activities Components .................................................................................. 12 2.2 Research Objectives .................................................................................................. 12 2.2.1 General Objective .............................................................................................. 12 2.2.2 Specific Objectives ............................................................................................ 13 2.2.3 The specific objectives will include:.................................................................. 13 2.3 Research Questions ................................................................................................... 13 2.4 Significance of this research for the project .............................................................. 13 3. Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Geographical and Socioecological Context the Quirimbas National Park ............... 14 3.2 Study Area ................................................................................................................. 16 3.3 Mangrove Cover Change Detection .......................................................................... 17 3.3.1 Image acquisition and processing ...................................................................... 17 3.3.2 Mangrove mapping and land change analysis ................................................... 18 3.3.3 Assessment of mangrove deforestation status and future modeling .................. 19 3.4 Mangrove Structure and Regeneration Status ........................................................... 20 3.4.1 Structural Parameters ......................................................................................... 20 3.5 Conservation Status ................................................................................................... 22 3.6 Regeneration Classes................................................................................................. 22 4. Statistical Analysis ........................................................................................................... 23 5. Climate Change Scenarios ................................................................................................ 24 6. Results .............................................................................................................................. 26 6.1 Mangrove Change Analysis ...................................................................................... 26 6.2 Mangrove Forest Structure ........................................................................................ 29 6.3 Regeneration.............................................................................................................. 37 6.4 Climate Change Scenarios and Vulnerability ........................................................... 39 7. Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 43 7.1 Mangrove mapping and forest structure.................................................................... 43 7.2 Regeneration.............................................................................................................. 44 7.3 Climate Change Analysis .......................................................................................... 45 7.4 Scientific Climate Change Gaps ............................................................................... 47 8. Mangrove Adaptation Strategy ......................................................................................... 49 8.1.1 Reduction of non-climate stressors (Human-induced factors) ........................... 49 8.1.2 Legislation Enforcement .................................................................................... 52 8.1.3 Active Actions, Monitoring and Evaluation ...................................................... 55 8.1.4 Sustainable Alternative Livelihoods and Long-term Partnerships .................... 58 8.1.5 Monitoring Mangrove Areas.............................................................................. 58 9. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 60 10. Recommendation .......................................................................................................... 61 11. References ..................................................................................................................... 62 Figures Figure 1 – Mangrove distribution in Mozambique (Source: USFS report, 2014 from Giri et al., 2011). ................................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2– Hazards and vulnerability of Mozambican coast (Source: INGC, 2012). ................. 7 Figure 3 - Geographic Location of Quirimbas National Park.................................................. 16 Figure 4 – Change detection analysis procedures for mangrove in the QNP. ......................... 19 Figure 5 - Rectangular plot layout with four subplots adapted from Kauffman and Donato (2012). ...................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 6– Mangrove change detection between 1991 and 2002 in Quirimbas National Park. 27 Figure 7– Mangrove change detection between 2002 and 2013 in Quirimbas National Park. 28 Figure 8– Importance Value Index of mangrove species on QNP. ......................................... 29 Figure 9– Species diameter distribution classes in in the QNP. .............................................. 35 Figure 10– Mangrove forest conditions in the 3 sampling areas within the QNP. (I) Intact; (PC) partially cut; (SC) severely cut; (S) stump and (DB) die back. ....................................... 36 Figure 11 – Mangrove forest quality poles in the 3 sampling areas (regions). ........................ 37 Figure 12 - Seasonal variation of mean rainfall in Mozambique for 2015 projections for 2050. .................................................................................................................................................. 40 Figure 13 – Seasonal variation of mean rainfall
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