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Download File I /' ~ • I .... .' ... t • f I • • .. Southwest Indian Ocean Risk Assessment and Financing Initia tive . : ". -.... -::: ":. :::: : ••:.:: ~iog Disaster ::::::::::Resilience in ,•••••~••........":,Stib-Sol'1o.ron Africa • ••••• ••• :·:·:·i:~$ ~- ••0i.\f" p".; ~ _ @WORLDBANKGROUP r,.... I,"J"," ~ ____.._. ..__ . (12016 The World Bank The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development TheWorld Bank Group 1818 HStreet, NW Was hington, D.C. 20433, USA November 2016 Africa Disaster Risk Profiles are co-financed by the EU-funded ACP­ EU NaturalDisaster Risk Reduction Program and the ACP-EUAfrica Disaster Risk Financing Program, managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reductionand Recovery. DISCLAI MER This document is the product of work performed by GFDRR staff, based on information provided by GFDRR's partners. Thefindings , analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not nec­ essarily reflectthe views of any individual partner organization of GFDRR , including,for example, the World Bank, the Executive Directorsof the World Bank, UNOP, the EuropeanUnion, or the governments they represent. Although GFDRR makes reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed. Useof any data or information from this document is at the user's own risk and under no circumstances shall GFD RR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result from reliance on the data con­ tained in this document. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracyof the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of TheWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. BecauseThe World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge. this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this workis given. Any queries on rights and licenses. including subsidiary rights. should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, TheWorld Bank, 1818 HStreet NW, Washi ngton, DC20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. The SWIO RAFI Project The SWIO RAFI included the collection of existing hazard and exposure data, and the creation of new hazard and exposure data, that were used in the he Southwest Indian Ocean Risk Assessment deve lopmen t ofa risk assessment and risk profiles and Financing Init iative (SWIG RAFI) for The Comoros,Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, seeks to provide a solid bas is for the futu re T and Zanzibar. imp lemen tation ofdisaster risk financi ng th rough the improved understanding of disaster risks to participa ting isla nd nations. This initiative is The exposure data includes detailed informati on in pa rtne rsh ip with th e Ministries of Finan ce, on building cons truction for a var iety of occupancy National Disaster Risk Management Offices and classes including: resid enti al; commercial; Insurance secto r representatives from The Comoros, indu strial; public facilities such as educational Mad agasca r, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Zanzibar, and facilities and emergency facilities; and infrastructure carr ied out in coordina tion with the Indian Ocean such as roads, airports, ports, and utilities. Finally, Commission (lOC) ISLANDS Project. the United risk information that is determi ned through a Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), combi nation of data on hazard, exposure, and and the French Development Agency (AFD). The vulnerability is provided at the national level and SWID RA FI supports the ISLANDS project's Islan ds at several administration levels for each peril and Fina ncial Protection Program (IFPP), which is also for all pe rils combined, and broke n down int o supported by the European Union (EU), UN ISDR,and occupancy classes. AFD. Africa Disaster Risk Profiles are co-financed by the Elf-funded ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk In add ition to the information provided in the risk Reduction Program and the ACP-EU Africa Disaster profiles, the hazard and exposure data and the Risk Financing Program, managed by the Global results of the risk analysis will be collated and stored Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. on ope n data geospatial risk information platforms, or GeoNodes, in each country and will be available SWIO RA FI complemented the ongoing wo rk of to a wide ra nge of end-users. The results will be the IOCto reduce vulnerability to natural disasters ava ilable in the form of geospati al files. text files, in accordance with the Mauriti us Strategy for the and de tailed fina l rep orts and can be used for sector Further Implementation of the Program of Action speci fic development pla nning and implementation. for th e Susta ina ble Development of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 2005-2015. More broadly, this initiative offers support to long-term, core economic, and social developmen t objectives. The risk mo deling undertaken through SWIO RAF I focused on th ree pe rils: tropical cyclones, floods produced by eve nts other than tropical cyclones, and earthquakes. Three hazards associated with tropical cyclones, wind, flooding and storm surge were considered in the risk assessment. In addition, as part of the earthquake risk assessment, tsunami risk zones were identified for each country. DISASTER RISK PROFILE I INTROOUCTION 1 hiS analys is suggests th at, on average, Comoros experiences nearly US$S.7 mi llion in combined direct Tlosses from earthquakes, floods. a nd tropical cyclones each year. However,a specific event such as a severe tropical cyclone can prod uce significantly larger losses. For example. Key Facts results suggest that a lOO-year return period tropical cyclone This ana lysis suggests that: event cou ld pro duce direct losses of $43 million and require approximately $9.9 million in emergency costs. • The average annual direct losses from earthquakes, l100ds, and Tropical cyclones are by far the most significant risk of the tropical cyclones are $5.7 million. three perils in this study, causing approximately 64 percent of the average loss per year. Flooding is the next largest risk. • The tun-year return period loss accounting for nearly 35 percent. It is important to note that an from all perils is over $48 million, I important risk on Grande Comcre, the Karthala volcano, was not or nearly 8% of Comoros's 2014 included in this analysis. • ~ l GOP. e In this analysis the residential sector experiences 80 percent • The 2S0-year return period loss of the combined losses, the public sector over 11 percent, and from all perils could be $150 the commercial sector nearly 6 percent. The highest loss takes million, or 24% ofComoros's 2014 place in Anjouan, which experiences nearly 80 percent of GDP. the average annual losses from the three perils combined In addition to the direct losses, an annual average of nearly $ 1.3 million is estimated for emergency costs. Direct Losses from All Perils Average Annual Loss ('*oJ 0 % 0 .1 0 .2 0 .3 0 .4 Avt'rage Annual Loss (%) Direct Losses by Hazard o 0.060.12 0. 18 0.24% Earthquake Flood Tropical cyclone [1 It ~ ~ ~ $160 M ul $80M ~. + $40M $20 M ~ Ml RPIO RPIOO- RP250 ML RPIO RPIOO RP250 2 DISASTER RISK PROFILE I RISK SUMMARY he population of Comoros in 20 15 build ings and other infrastructure is sector accounts for over 66 percent of was approximately 790,000. The estimated to be nearly $2.6 billion. The the tota l replacem ent value. Tmos t populous island is Gra nde largest con centration of replacement Comore. Nearly 58 percent of Comoros's value is on Grande Cc more . In terms of constructio n type, buildings population lives in metropolitan or with masonry and concrete wall urban areas (that is, areas with more To assess risk be tter, replacement values constr uction account for nearly 83 than 2,000 people per square kilometer) and loss are often categorized according percent of the total replacement value. and slightly more than 29 percent in to occupancy and const ruc tion types. In rural areas (fewer than 1,600 people per terms of occupancy type, the residential square kilometer). In 20 14, Comoros's gross domestic product (GOP) was approximately $6 20 million ($t.3 billion Average Annual Loss 100·Year Return Period Loss in purchasing power parity), and the per capita GDP was $790. Peril Total Direct Emergency Total Direct Emergency Losses Costs Losses Costs For 20 15, the estimated total Earthquakes $99,0 00 $16,00 0 $1.8 million $280 ,0 00 replacement value for all residential, commercial, industrial, and pub lic Floods $2.0 million $460, 00 0 $10 million $2.3 million Tropical Cyclones $3.6 million $830 ,0 0 0 $43 million $9 .9 million _ Direct Losses by Building Type for all Hazards Residential Commercial/Industrial Average Annual Loss (%) Average Annual Loss (%) 0 .36 % . 0 .36 % _ 0 .27 . 0 .27 0 .18 0 .18 0 .09 0 .09 a a Infrastructure Public* Average Annual Loss (%) Average Annual Loss (%) _ 0 .36 % _ 0 .36 % - 0 .27 . 0 .27 0 .18 0 .18 0 .09 0 .09 a a o no data -toucanon. Healthcare, Religion, Emergency DISASTER RISK PROFILE I RISK SUIollolARY 3 his analysis suggests that , on ave rage, flood loss. On Anjouan, Ouan i has the highes t Comoro s will experience around $2.0 risk ofdirect losses with average annual flood T milli on each yea r in dir ect losses from losses of $66 0,000.
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