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BUILDING TOOLS TO MODEL THE EFFECTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND HOW IT SCALES FROM PHYSIOLOGY TO FISHERIES by Travis Christopher Tai B.Sc., The University of Western Ontario, 2010 M.Sc., The University of Victoria, 2014 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Oceans and Fisheries) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) September 2019 © Travis Christopher Tai, 2019 The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the dissertation entitled: Building tools to model the effects of ocean acidification and how it scales from physiology to fisheries. submitted by Travis Tai in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Ocean and Fisheries Examining Committee: Dr. U. Rashid Sumaila Co-supervisor Dr. William W.L. Cheung Co-supervisor Dr. Nadja Steiner Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Marie Auger-Méthé University Examiner Dr. Colin J. Brauner University Examiner Dr. Sam Dupont External Examiner Additional Supervisory Committee Members: Dr. Christopher D.G. Harley Supervisory Committee Member ii Abstract Ocean acidification is a direct consequence of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by anthropogenic fossil fuel burning and is one of multiple climate-related stressors in marine environments. Understanding of how these stressors will interact to affect marine life and fisheries is limited. In this thesis, I used integrated modelling approaches to scale the effects of biophysical drivers from physiology to population dynamics and fisheries. I focused on ocean acidification and how it interacts with other main drivers such as temperature and oxygen. I used a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model (DBEM) to project the effects of global environmental change on fisheries under two contrasting scenarios of climate change—the low optimistic climate change scenario in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5˚ C, and the high climate change scenario on par with our current ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory. First, I developed an ex-vessel fish price database and explored methods using various ocean acidification assumptions. Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for fisheries economic analyses, while model development of ocean acidification effects are important to better understand the uncertainties surrounding acidification and the sensitivity of the model to these uncertainties. These tools and methods were then used to project the impacts of ocean acidification, in the context of climate change, on global invertebrate fisheries—the species group most sensitive to acidification. My results showed that areas with greater acidification have greater negative responses to climate change, e.g. polar regions. However, ocean warming will likely be a greater driver in species distributions and may overshadow direct effects of acidification. While greater climate change will generally have negative consequences on fisheries, Arctic regions may see increased fisheries catch potential as species shift poleward. Canada’s Arctic remains one of the iii most pristine marine regions left in the world and climate-driven increases in fisheries potential will have major implications for biodiversity and local indigenous reliance on marine resources. In the face of global environmental change, my thesis provides databases, modelling approaches, scenario development, and assessments of global change necessary for adaptation and mitigation of climate-related effects on marine fisheries. iv Lay Summary Marine species are impacted by climate change and human exploitation for fisheries resources. There is a major gap in understanding how ocean acidification—amongst other climate-change impacts—will affect organisms and how impacts will scale from biology to fisheries. My thesis uses quantitative simulation models to determine how climate-change related stressors and fishing pressure affect the biology, population, and fisheries of commercially valuable marine species. Two main findings emerge: 1. Climate change has profound effects on global and regional fisheries, affecting potential catch and revenues; and 2. Ocean acidification effects on species are variable across regions, and its impacts may be secondary to temperature effects. I used future scenarios of ocean acidification to derive results from various indicators to evaluate impacts at different spatial scales. Scenario development facilitates an understanding of potential climate change outcomes and is used to identify and quantify the various sources of uncertainty. v Preface I am the primary author of this thesis and the lead author for all chapters. I led the primary design, implementation, and analyses of all research in this thesis. This thesis was written with the guidance and support of my co-supervisors, Dr. Rashid Sumaila and Dr. William Cheung, as well as my other committee members, Dr. Chris Harley and Dr. Nadja Steiner. Furthermore, co- authors provided insightful thought and contributions to ensure the quality of each chapter for publication. A version of chapter 2 has been published as, “Tai TC, Cashion T, Lam VWY, Swartz W, Sumaila UR (2017) Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Disaggregating Prices for Low-Priced Species from Reduction Fisheries. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4:1–10, DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2017.00363.” I conceived the initial idea for this manuscript with guidance from URS. The original draft of the manuscript was researched and written by me. I primarily collected the data for this manuscript, with help from TC to identify and collect additional data. TC also added valuable suggestions and knowledge on the various fisheries end-products (e.g. direct human consumption, fishmeal and fish oil) and kindly provided that dataset to be incorporated into the update of fisheries ex-vessel prices and landed values. All authors contributed to writing and revisions for publication. A version of chapter 3 has been published as, “Tai TC, Harley CDG, Cheung WWL (2018) Comparing model parameterizations of the biophysical impacts of ocean acidification to identify limitations and uncertainties. Ecological Modelling, 385:1–11, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.007.” I conceptualized the initial research questions for this vi manuscript. Furthermore, I collected the data, conducted the model simulations and statistical analyses, and wrote the original draft version of the manuscript. The initial model was written by WWLC and then revised by me to test the main research questions. All authors contributed to writing and revisions for final publication. A version of chapter 4 has been prepared as a manuscript with co-authors UR Sumaila and WWL Cheung, with the working title, “Ocean acidification amplifies multi-stressor impacts on global marine invertebrate fisheries.” This manuscript has been submitted for peer review. I conceptualized the research questions for this manuscript with guidance from WWLC, collected the data, conducted the model simulations and analyses, and wrote the original draft version of the manuscript. The initial model was written by WWLC and then revised by me to test the main research questions. All authors contributed to writing and revisions for final publication. A version of chapter 5 has been prepared as a manuscript and published to Marine Policy as, “Tai TC, Steiner NS, Hoover C, Cheung WWL, Sumaila UR (2019) Evaluating present and future potential of arctic fisheries in Canada. Marine Policy, 108, 103637, DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103637.” I conceptualized the research questions for this manuscript, collected the data, ran model simulations, conducted analyses, and wrote the original draft version of the manuscript. The initial model was written by WWLC and then revised by me to test the main research questions. All authors contributed to writing and revisions for final publication. vii Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii Lay Summary ................................................................................................................................ v Preface ........................................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... viii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. xiii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. xvi List of Supplementary Material ............................................................................................. xxiv List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................ xxv Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. xxvi Dedication ................................................................................................................................ xxvii Chapter 1: Introduction ..............................................................................................................

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