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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 12 Apr 2021 08:21 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Hammerson Retail Parks disposal progress confirmed Company Events 13-Apr Givaudan; Q121 Results Irish Housebuilders Strong outlook from Irish 14-Apr easyJet; Q221 Trading Update construction PMI as sector reopens Hammerson; Shareholder Engagement Session Tesco; FY21 Results Irish Banks Easing of some Covid-restrictions today; 15-Apr Entain; Q121 Trading Update Travis Perkins; Q121 Trading Update sovereign bond holdings Economic Events Ireland 15-Apr Trade Balance Feb21 United Kingdom 13-Apr BRC Retail Sales Mar21 Construction Output Feb21 GDP Feb21 Industrial Production Feb21 Manufacturing Production Feb21 Trade Balance Feb21 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Hammerson Retail Parks disposal progress confirmed As had been expected now for a number of weeks, though we lacked an amount, Recommendation: Hold Hammerson (HMSO:LN) are understood to have agreed to sell the UK retail parks portfolio Closing Price: £0.37 (which had a book value £384m at the end of FY20) to Canadian investor Brookfield for in the region of £350m. The figure is noted in an article in the Retail Gazette yesterday morning Colm Lauder +353-1-641 6042 (and noted in an RNS from the Company this morning). Interestingly, this is believed to be [email protected] higher than Brookfield’s previous bid in early 2020. In our estimates, we had estimated net proceeds of £340m for the retail parks disposals this amount suggested is very much in line with our expectations. We expected the UK retail parks disposal to be the main item of FY21, so it is welcome progress for the company and new CEO. This refreshed disposal follows the collapse of the sale to Orion Capital Partners in May 2020 which would have netted Hammerson £395m. Hammerson were able to keep the deposit (£21m) which helped cushion the blow of the failed transaction. At the time the underbidders ranged from £310-345m. Hammerson’s recent results noted that the retail parks portfolio was valued at £384m at the end of FY20. With improving levels of liquidity in this market segment, and comparatively robust income performance in the second half of 2020, we were relatively optimistic for the retail parks disposal in early 2021. We are making no changes to our factoring in of estimated net proceeds of £340m from this disposal, which when added to the retained deposit from the aborted transaction, delivers HSMO net proceeds of £361m, less than 10% shy of the figure they would have attained last year. This is an important transaction for Hammerson as it is a critical element of their balance sheet strengthening process. This is also welcome news as the price mooted will be ahead of market expectations. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 2 12 Apr. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Housebuilders Strong outlook from Irish construction PMI as sector reopens With the construction sector only beginning to re-open from today (April 12th), it is Robert Eason absolutely no surprise that the construction PMI for the month of March remains deep in +353-1-641 9271 contraction territory. At a headline level, total activity of 30.9 does represent an [email protected] improvement on both the February and January readings of 27.0 and 21.2 respectively but David O’Brien clearly remains deep in contraction territory nonetheless. The contraction in the index was +353-1-641 9230 widespread with Housing (33.8), Commercial (31.3) and Civil Engineering (23.8) activity still david.a.o’[email protected] well below the critical 50 market. Despite construction activity being exceptionally weak in Q1 amidst pandemic related restrictions, “respondents are becoming increasingly upbeat Dudley Shanley +353-1-641 9174 about the prospects for recovery”. Indeed the future activity index rose again in March and [email protected] now stands at its highest level in two and a half years with 58% of firms noting an expectation for expansion over the coming 12 months as the sector re-opens and we see a Shane Carberry release of pent-up demand. The theme of rising input cost inflation remains to the fore with +353-1-6419118 the pace picking up for the third consecutive month. Input cost inflation is now running at [email protected] the fastest pace in February 2018 with both the pandemic and Brexit touted as the key factors and shipping costs and “raw materials such as metals” flagged as the key contributors. Given pandemic related restrictions through March, the PMI reading is not surprising. What is noteworthy, is just how positive the outlook with almost 60% of firms expecting a bounce back to expansion over the next 12 months. This level of confidence echoes the optimistic outlook from both Cairn Homes and Glenveagh Properties, with similarly upbeat commentary from Grafton Group. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 3 12 Apr. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Banks Easing of some Covid-restrictions today; sovereign bond holdings There is plenty of coverage in the UK about the easing of Covid-related restrictions there and Eamonn Hughes today also sees some easing of restrictions in Ireland with all remaining children returning to +353-1-641 9442 school, an easing of the 5km restriction to now within your county (and/or 20km), a return [email protected] of construction workers for residential projects and households can meet outdoors with one Barry Egan other household. +353-1-641 6059 [email protected] At least some progress on the easing of restrictions in Ireland, which is welcome, with the number of new cases overnight as well also the lowest since mid- December. So helpful in terms of economic activity that residential construction is re-opening and this will also be helpful in terms of supporting completions – and mortgage lending – into H2. The Irish Independent business section runs a story with the large rise in sovereign bond holdings by the banks last year as evidenced by their recent annual reports. AIB increased its sovereign bond holdings by €2.5bn to €7.7bn, which equated to 7% of total assets and 70% of its capital, with a €1.8bn rise at BOI to €7.6bn, or 6% of total assets and 88% of total capital. The rise in deposits last year will have seen a large rise in liquid assets at the banks, driving the rise in sovereign bond holdings. We commented on this issue last week when the FT ran a story that Italian and French banks’ exposure to their own sovereign debt hit record highs since the pandemic began. The FT reported that Italian bank domestic sovereign bond holdings equated to 18% of total assets and almost 2x their total capital, the highest in Europe. It appears the Irish exposures are still below the average risk exposures noted by the FT. Elsewhere, the Irish Independent reports that the Junior Finance Minister has been meeting insurance companies following the recent judicial council approval of guidelines for lower court awards for motor related claims to ensure that insurers will start lowering motor premiums. The Junior Minister indicates that most insurers he has met with will start reducing premiums from June when the new awards regime comes into place. The Junior Minister is half way through meetings with industry players and noted that a number of insurers he has spoken to are assuming the new personal injury guidelines will lead to fewer cases going to court and an overall lowering in the cost of compensation. This is broadly as anticipated that the industry would soon start to quote premiums This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates reflecting the lower mandated court awards. This will also likely reduce reserving requirements for the sector rolling forward. Home… Page 4 12 Apr. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Issuer & Analyst Disclosures Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report. Regulatory Information Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as Goodbody, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, is also subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. This publication has been approved by Goodbody. The information has been taken from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.
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