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CURRENTS and CROSSCURRENTS of RADICAL ISLAMISM CURRENTS and CROSSCURRENTS of RADICAL SLAMISMI A REPORT OF THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES TRANSATLANTIC DIALOGUE ON TERRORISM April 2006 CSIS TRANSATLANTIC DIALOGUE ON TERRORISM 1 2 CURRENTS AND CROSSCURRENTS OF RADICAL SLAMISMI TABLE fo ONTENTSC 4 INTRODUCTION 6 STILL IN THE DARK: THE INTEGRATION CHALLENGE 10 RECOMMENDATIONS 11 LOCAL GRIEVANCES, GLOBAL JIHAD 14 RECOMMENDATIONS 15 AL QAEDA’S SOUTHEAST ASIAN AFFILIATE: JEMAAH ISLAMIYAH 16 TERRORIST USE OF THE INTERNET 18 RECOMMENDATIONS 19 LITTLE UNDERSTOOD AND PROFOUNDLY FEARED: SUICIDE BOMBING 21 THE COMING THREAT? THE RETURN OF IRAQ’S JIHADISTS 22 OUT OF THE SHADOWS: THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP AND THE FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM 25 RECOMMENDATIONS 26 THE EU’S ROLE IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERROR 27 APPENDIX A > DIA LOGUE PARTICIPANTS CURRENTS and ROSSCURRENTSC fo RADICALSLAMISM I A REPORT OF THE CSIS TRANSATLANTIC DIALOGUE ON TERRORISM April 2006 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1800 K STREET, NW, WASHINGTON, D.C. 20006 PH: (202) 887-0200 FAX: (202) 775-3199 WWW.CSIS.ORG DESIGN: BILLY SOUNTORNSORN CSIS TRANSATLANTIC DIALOGUE ON TERRORISM 3 INTRODUCTION The second phase of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Transatlantic Dialogue on Terror took place against a backdrop of rapid change. When the first conference in this series took place in Berlin in the spring of 2005, scholars and practitioners were still absorbing the details of the previous year’s attacks against the Madrid light rail system, the murder of Dutch artist Theo van Gogh and a host of other attacks and foiled plots. Global radicalism continued to be shaped by the deepening insurgency in Iraq, in which radical Islamists from inside and outside that country play a pivotal role. In the months following the Berlin meeting, the bombing of the London Underground, the attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh and Amman, and a stream of revelations about radical Islamist activity from Europe to the Middle East to South Asia and Australia — where a group of conspirators were arrested for plotting an attack against that country’s sole nuclear facility — had also to be taken into account. Complicating the picture was increasing evidence of the decline of the core al Qaeda group. Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and other senior leaders were apparently contained in the forbidding border region of Pakistan; other senior leaders were in Iran, where they seemed to be largely, if not completely, restrained. Top operatives were being hunted and captured with considerable efficiency, preventing the organization from reviving its network and carrying out terrorist strikes. The juxtaposition of a weakened al Qaeda and continued terrorist activity — and a seemingly thriving radical milieu — has compelled observers to think hard about the state of terrorism today, which little resembles anything in the past half century of non-state violence. In the course of Transatlantic Dialogue conferences in Berlin, Washington and The Hague, participants explored conceptions of this new terrorism as being the product not of traditional extremist, hierarchical organizations but rather a burgeoning social movement. Networks have loosened and, in some cases, atomized. But the activism continues, fueled by the spread of jihadist ideology. Increasingly, we see that the key actors are not the established radical organizations, which are under severe pressure from police and intelligence services, but “self-starter” cells, which operate largely without outside direction. The emergence of such small groups from the grass roots forces us to examine more closely the phenomenon of radicalization, the means of transmission of ideas as well as 4 CURRENTS AND CROSSCURRENTS OF RADICAL SLAMISMI tactics, and the conditions that may trigger a handful which have supported us generously and shared our of individuals to commit their lives to a cause with belief that the work of the Dialogue is essential both for which they have had little previous formal contact. exploring key areas of the new terrorism and for building bridges between leading researchers and institutions These issues provided the basis for a set for enormously on both sides of the Atlantic. We are grateful as well to rich exchanges between distinguished European and our conference partners: the Heinrich Böll Foundation American researchers and officials, who were joined and the German Foreign Ministry, which hosted the by some of world’s foremost experts from such other Dialogue’s meeting last spring in Berlin, and Clingendael, parts of the world as the Middle East and Australia. the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, and Running through the sessions of the last year have been TNO, which hosted our December conference in The two shared, overarching understandings: First, that the Hague. Both conferences surpassed our expectations, transformation of the terrorist threat from one that both in terms of the liveliness of exchange and the emanated from a network of organizations to one that is fruitfulness of ideas because of these partners’ rooted in a social movement indicates the durability of superb preparation and substantive contributions. the phenomenon. If individuals are turning to violence without the familiar blandishments and psychological At CSIS, we have also benefited from the strong support seduction of traditional terrorist recruitment, then of our president and CEO, John Hamre, Executive Vice the ideas of the global jihad must have a dangerous President Robin Niblett, who, as director of the Europe resonance in the Muslim world. Second, while important Program, has been an invaluable help in coordinating progress has been made in exploring the pathways of and strengthening our transatlantic activities, and radicalism, we are still very much in the early stages Senior Vice President and Director of the International of understanding the challenge before us. The field of Security Program Kurt Campbell, within whose terrorism studies, which was small and under-developed ambit this program falls and who has been its most before September 11, 2001, is expanding rapidly and dedicated champion. More members of the CSIS staff finding its balance. But the agenda of topics for future have contributed to the Dialogue than could possibly examination is lengthening, and the boundaries of the be mentioned, but two whose involvement has been field are nowhere in sight. critical are Andrew Tabler, whose research, writing and logistical support have been heroic, and Billy The Transatlantic Dialogue owes many debts. In the last Sountornsorn, who has been designer-in-chief of our year, our principal funding came from the Robert Bosch publications and a tremendous help in a wide variety of Foundation and the U.S. National Intelligence Council, other areas. We greatly appreciate all their assistance. Daniel Benjamin Aidan Kirby Julianne Smith Senior Fellow Research Associate Senior Fellow CSIS TRANSATLANTIC DIALOGUE ON TERRORISM 5 STILL IN THE DARK the integration challenge Over the last few decades, immigration has transformed the demographic landscape of Europe. The result has been the creation of parallel societies that, up until recently, did not appear to pose much of a problem for European governments. Clashes between these two societies, however, have grown in the last few years both in frequency and severity, taking many Europeans by surprise. While the arrival of large numbers of Muslims in Europe in the 1950s and 1960s to fill the postwar labor shortage was no secret, few Europeans expected the newcomers to stay. As such, governments did little to integrate these individuals, especially as many of the immigrant communities seemed reluctant to embrace European lifestyles and values. For a time, ignoring the growing cleavages in European societies suited both sides. But as many of the economic opportunities that drew the original generation of immigrants to Europe dwindled, due in part to technological advances, and the disappearance of low- wage jobs, the socio-economic status of most immigrants failed to improve significantly. Today, Muslims in Europe, many of them now citizens, frequently live in ghettos, receive second-rate schooling and suffer much higher un- and under-employment than the general population. Unemployment is 10% higher among British Muslims than the national average and, in the case of the Netherlands, the figure has reached 60%. The bombings in Madrid and London as well as the murder of the Dutch filmmaker, Theo van Gogh, in the Netherlands raised new questions about the security threats European governments may have inadvertently helped 6 CURRENTS AND CROSSCURRENTS OF RADICAL SLAMISMI create in ignoring their alienated and isolated Muslim “The real issue is not structural communities for so long. The attacks, together with the spreading recognition that elements of the immigrant assimilation — we’re interested in communities had embraced radical sentiments, revealed identity assimilation: do immigrants fundamental questions about issues of coexistence and integration. identify with the country of residence as being their own?” European nations have taken different approaches to the challenge of integrating Muslims into their societies for a variety of reasons. First, the Muslim community in — Robert Leiken Europe is far from monolithic. Germany’s Muslims are Director, Immigration & National Security predominantly Turkish, France’s Muslims come primarily Program, The Nixon Center from North Africa and those in the United Kingdom
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