Assessing the Strength of Hezbollah Hearing
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“New” Vs. “Old” Terrorism*
The Debate over “New” vs. “Old” Terrorism* Prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, August 30-September 2, 2007 Martha Crenshaw Center for International Security and Cooperation Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-6165 [email protected] Since 9/11, many policy makers, journalists, consultants, and scholars have become convinced that the world confronts a “new” terrorism unlike the terrorism of the past.1 Thus the government and policy elites have been blamed for not recognizing the danger of the “new” terrorism in the 1990s and therefore failing to prevent the disaster of 9/11.2 Knowledge of the “old” or traditional terrorism is sometimes considered irrelevant at best, and obsolete and anachronistic, even harmful, at worst. Some of those who argue 1 Examples include Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), although Hoffman is sometimes ambivalent; Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Age of Sacred Terror: Radical Islam’s War Against America (New York Random House, 2003); Walter Laqueur, The New Terrorism: Fanaticism and the Arms of Mass Destruction (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999); and Ian O. Lesser, et al., Countering the New Terrorism (Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1999). Ambassador L. Paul Bremer contributed “A New Strategy for the New Face of Terrorism” to a special issue of The National Interest (Thanksgiving 2001), pp. 23-30. A recent post 9/11 overview is Matthew J. Morgan, “The Origins of the New Terrorism,” Parameters (the journal of the U.S. Army War College), 34, 1 (Spring 2004), pp. -
The Resurgence of Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq
December 2012 Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ Photo Credit: Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq protest in Kadhimiya, Baghdad, September 2012. Photo posted on Twitter by Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. ©2012 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2012 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. http://www.understandingwar.org Sam Wyer MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 7 THE RESURGENCE OF ASA’IB AHL AL-HAQ ABOUT THE AUTHOR Sam Wyer is a Research Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, where he focuses on Iraqi security and political matters. Prior to joining ISW, he worked as a Research Intern at AEI’s Critical Threats Project where he researched Iraqi Shi’a militia groups and Iranian proxy strategy. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science from Middlebury College in Vermont and studied Arabic at Middlebury’s school in Alexandria, Egypt. ABOUT THE INSTITUTE The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. ISW is committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. -
Iranian Strategy in Syria
*SBOJBO4USBUFHZJO4ZSJB #:8JMM'VMUPO KPTFQIIPMMJEBZ 4BN8ZFS BKPJOUSFQPSUCZ"&*ŦT$SJUJDBM5ISFBUT1SPKFDUJ/45*565&'035)&456%:0'8"3 .BZ All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. ©2013 by Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project Cover Image: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, and Hezbollah’s Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah appear together on a poster in Damascus, Syria. Credit: Inter Press Service News Agency Iranian strategy in syria Will Fulton, Joseph Holliday, & Sam wyer May 2013 A joint Report by AEI’s critical threats project & Institute for the Study of War ABOUT US About the Authors Will Fulton is an Analyst and the IRGC Project Team Lead at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Joseph Holliday is a Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. Sam Wyer served as an Iraq Analyst at ISW from September 2012 until February 2013. The authors would like to thank Kim and Fred Kagan, Jessica Lewis, and Aaron Reese for their useful insights throughout the writing and editorial process, and Maggie Rackl for her expert work on formatting and producing this report. We would also like to thank our technology partners Praescient Analytics and Palantir Technologies for providing us with the means and support to do much of the research and analysis used in our work. About the Institute for the Study of War The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. -
America and the New Terrorism by Steven Simon and Daniel Benjamin
America and the New Terrorism 59 America and the New Terrorism ○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○ Steven Simon and Daniel Benjamin The arrival of the new millennium was accompanied in the United States by fears of spectacular terrorist violence. Several agencies of the US government issued an unprecedented succession of warnings about possible attacks, and there were terrorism-related arrests in Canada, Jordan and the US.1 The successful interdiction of these attackers and the passing of a date of unique significance will not, however, mean the end of this concern. It will continue, and even intensify, because the old paradigm of predominantly state- sponsored terrorism has been joined by a new, religiously motivated terrorism that neither relies on the support of sovereign states nor is constrained by the limits on violence that state sponsors have observed themselves or placed on their proxies. The new terrorism has emerged during the Clinton presidency: the 1993 World Trade Center bombings in New York, and related conspiracies; the 1996 Oklahoma City bombing; the 1998 East Africa bombings; and the Tokyo sarin- gas attack in 1995. These attacks were the unmistakable harbingers of a new and vastly more threatening terrorism, one that aims to produce casualties on a massive scale. Although the new terrorism stems from a welter of causes, and cannot be considered the invention of any one individual, the face of this phenomenon belongs to Osama bin Laden, the exiled Saudi who has marshalled a network of operatives in more than 50 countries. US analysts believe that religiously motivated terrorism will persist for many years, and that its Islamic manifestation will remain a threat regardless of bin Laden’s fate. -
Mapping the Jihadist Threat: the War on Terror Since 9/11
Campbell • Darsie Mapping the Jihadist Threat A Report of the Aspen Strategy Group 06-016 imeless ideas and values,imeless ideas contemporary dialogue on and open-minded issues. t per understanding in a nonpartisanper understanding and non-ideological setting. f e o e he mission ofhe mission enlightened leadership, foster is to Institute Aspen the d n T io ciat e r p Through seminars, policy programs, initiatives, development and leadership conferences the Institute and its international partners seek to promote the pursuit of the pursuit partners and its international promote seek to the Institute and ground common the ap Mapping the Jihadist Threat: The War on Terror Since 9/11 A Report of the Aspen Strategy Group Kurt M. Campbell, Editor Willow Darsie, Editor u Co-Chairmen Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Brent Scowcroft To obtain additional copies of this report, please contact: The Aspen Institute Fulfillment Office P.O. Box 222 109 Houghton Lab Lane Queenstown, Maryland 21658 Phone: (410) 820-5338 Fax: (410) 827-9174 E-mail: [email protected] For all other inquiries, please contact: The Aspen Institute Aspen Strategy Group Suite 700 One Dupont Circle, NW Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 736-5800 Fax: (202) 467-0790 Copyright © 2006 The Aspen Institute Published in the United States of America 2006 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-456-4 Inv No.: 06-016 CONTENTS DISCUSSANTS AND GUEST EXPERTS . 1 AGENDA . 5 WORKSHOP SCENE SETTER AND DISCUSSION GUIDE Kurt M. Campbell Aspen Strategy Group Workshop August 5-10, 2005 . -
The Evolution of the Revolution
The Evolution of the Revolution THE CHANGING NATURE OF IRAN’S AXIS OF RESISTANCE KENNETH M. POLLACK MARCH 2020 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE Executive Summary ince the earliest days after the 1979 Islamic Soleimani in January 2020 could significantly impede S Revolution, the Iranian regime has sought to build further progress. a coalition across the Middle East to help it achieve its As it stands currently, the Axis is comprised of ideological and geostrategic goals. Tehran understood both state and non-state actors. These groups include that its ability to secure the Islamic Republic in Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Popular Front for the Liber- overturn the regional status quo, drive out the United ation of Palestine–General Command (PFLP-GC), States, and make Iran the regional hegemon was lim- Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and occasionally the ited if it acted on its own. It could only succeed with Kurdistan Workers’ Party. State and quasi-state actors the help of others. openly aligned with Tehran include Hamas in Gaza, However, for the next two decades, the Axis was Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, and the Houthis little more than rhetoric, ascribing greater unity in Yemen. of effort to an amalgam of states,semi-states , and Ultimately, the new operating method of Iran’s non-state actors than was ever the reality. It was pri- Axis of Resistance is a strategy born of necessity. It marily a psychological ploy to frighten its adversaries is a strategy of the weak, unlikely to succeed against and make its members feel less isolated in the face the strong except when they are badly constrained of American hostility. -
The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq
The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq By Anthony H. Cordesman, Peter Alsis, Adam Mausner, and Charles Loi Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Revised: December 20, 2011 Note: This draft is being circulated for comments and suggestions. Please provide them to [email protected] Chapter 6: US Strategic Competition with Iran: Competition in Iraq 2 Executive Summary "Americans planted a tree in Iraq. They watered that tree, pruned it, and cared for it. Ask your American friends why they're leaving now before the tree bears fruit." --Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.1 Iraq has become a key focus of the strategic competition between the United States and Iran. The history of this competition has been shaped by the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the 1991 Gulf War, and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Since the 2003 war, both the US and Iran have competed to shape the structure of Post-Saddam Iraq’s politics, governance, economics, and security. The US has gone to great lengths to counter Iranian influence in Iraq, including using its status as an occupying power and Iraq’s main source of aid, as well as through information operations and more traditional press statements highlighting Iranian meddling. However, containing Iranian influence, while important, is not America’s main goal in Iraq. It is rather to create a stable democratic Iraq that can defeat the remaining extremist and insurgent elements, defend against foreign threats, sustain an able civil society, and emerge as a stable power friendly to the US and its Gulf allies. -
Policy Notes March 2021
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY MARCH 2021 POLICY NOTES NO. 100 In the Service of Ideology: Iran’s Religious and Socioeconomic Activities in Syria Oula A. Alrifai “Syria is the 35th province and a strategic province for Iran...If the enemy attacks and aims to capture both Syria and Khuzestan our priority would be Syria. Because if we hold on to Syria, we would be able to retake Khuzestan; yet if Syria were lost, we would not be able to keep even Tehran.” — Mehdi Taeb, commander, Basij Resistance Force, 2013* Taeb, 2013 ran’s policy toward Syria is aimed at providing strategic depth for the Pictured are the Sayyeda Tehran regime. Since its inception in 1979, the regime has coopted local Zainab shrine in Damascus, Syrian Shia religious infrastructure while also building its own. Through youth scouts, and a pro-Iran I proxy actors from Lebanon and Iraq based mainly around the shrine of gathering, at which the banner Sayyeda Zainab on the outskirts of Damascus, the Iranian regime has reads, “Sayyed Commander Khamenei: You are the leader of the Arab world.” *Quoted in Ashfon Ostovar, Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (2016). Khuzestan, in southwestern Iran, is the site of a decades-long separatist movement. OULA A. ALRIFAI IRAN’S RELIGIOUS AND SOCIOECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN SYRIA consolidated control over levers in various localities. against fellow Baathists in Damascus on November Beyond religious proselytization, these networks 13, 1970. At the time, Iran’s Shia clerics were in exile have provided education, healthcare, and social as Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi was still in control services, among other things. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies name redacted Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs December 21, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Summary Iran’s national security policy is the product of many, and sometimes competing, factors: the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution; Iranian leadership’s perception of threats to the regime and to the country; long-standing Iranian national interests; and the interaction of the Iranian regime’s various factions and constituencies. Some experts assert that the goal of Iran’s national security strategy is to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that Iran asserts favors the United States and its allies Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. Iran characterizes its support for Shiite and other Islamist movements as support for the “oppressed” and asserts that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. Others interpret Iran as primarily attempting to protect itself from U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate it or to change its regime. Its strategy might, alternatively or additionally, represent an attempt to enhance Iran’s international prestige or restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of the ancient Persian empires. From 2010 until 2016, Iran’s foreign policy also focused on attempting to mitigate the effects of international sanctions on Iran. Iran employs a number of different tools in pursuing its national security policy. Some Iranian policy tools are common to most countries: traditional diplomacy and the public promotion of Iran’s values and interests. -
From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’S Popular Mobilisation Units
From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units By Inna Rudolf CONTACT DETAILS For questions, queries and additional copies of this report, please contact: ICSR King’s College London Strand London WC2R 2LS United Kingdom T. +44 20 7848 2098 E. [email protected] Twitter: @icsr_centre Like all other ICSR publications, this report can be downloaded free of charge from the ICSR website at www.icsr.info. © ICSR 2018 From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units Contents List of Key Terms and Actors 2 Executive Summary 5 Introduction 9 Chapter 1 – The Birth and Institutionalisation of the PMU 11 Chapter 2 – Organisational Structure and Leading Formations of Key PMU Affiliates 15 The Usual Suspects 17 Badr and its Multi-vector Policy 17 The Taming of the “Special Groups” 18 Asa’ib Ahl al-Haqq – Righteousness with Benefits? 18 Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Iranian Connection 19 Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada – Seeking Martyrdom in Syria? 20 Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba – a Hezbollah Wannabe? 21 Saraya al-Khorasani – Tehran’s Satellite in Iraq? 22 Kata’ib Tayyar al-Risali – Iraqi Loyalists with Sadrist Roots 23 Saraya al-Salam – How Rebellious are the Peace Brigades? 24 Hashd al-Marji‘i – the ‘Holy’ Mobilisation 24 Chapter 3 – Election Manoeuvring 27 Betting on the Hashd 29 Chapter 4 – Conclusion 33 1 From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualising the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units List of Key Terms and Actors AAH: -
Ambassador Daniel Benjamin
Ambassador Daniel Benjamin (ret.) John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding Dartmouth College The Muslim Brotherhood’s Global Threat Testimony Before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security Washington, DC July 11, 2018 Chairman DeSantis, Ranking Member Lynch, Distinguished Members of the Subcommittee: Thank you for inviting me to appear here today. The subject of the Muslim Brotherhood remains one of broad interest both for policymakers and the public. I welcome the opportunity to contribute to a discussion that could have important consequences for our nation’s relationship with the Muslim world and, ultimately, our national security. As a starting point, I would like to address the title of this hearing: “The Muslim Brotherhood’s Global Threat.” I do so because I believe it is important to deal with two questions the title begs. The first is whether there is a singular entity entitled the Muslim Brotherhood. The second is whether that entity – or some group of Muslim Brotherhood branches or affiliates – represent a genuine global threat. With regard to the first question, this answer is fairly straightforward. As scholars, intelligence analysts and policymakers in past administrations have come to agree, there is no singular, monolithic Muslim Brotherhood. Founded in the 1920s in Egypt by Hassan al-Banna, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood inspired and even assisted in the creation of many of other branches in other countries, including Jordan, Syria, Tunisia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Some countries have Islamist parties that have ties to the Brotherhood of varying kinds. But decades after the genesis of the Egyptian Ikhwan, there is no central administration linking these disparate groups. -
Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and the Khazali Special Groups Network
Backgrounder #38 Asaib Ahl al‐Haq and the Khazali Special Groups Network By Marisa Cochrane, Research Manager, Institute for the Study of War January 13, 2008 Introduction Multi‐National Force‐Iraq has identified various Shia extremist groups operating in Iraq, often using the label Special Groups or Secret Cells (first described in a press conference on July 2, 2007). MNF‐I named Asaib Ahl al‐Haq (AAH, or the League of the Righteous) as an active group on August 19, 2008 and released information that AAH is “affiliated” with Special Groups. This paper evaluates how the two groups are affiliated by testing four hypotheses about the relationship between the Special Groups network, led at one time by Qais Khazali, and Asaib Ahl al‐Haq (League of the Righteous): 1) Asaib Ahl al‐Haq (AAH) is the same as the Khazali Special Groups Network (referred hereafter as Special Groups or SGs); 2) AAH was an affiliate of SGs in 2006 and its successor after Khazali’s arrest in early 2007; 3) AAH was an affiliate of SGs in 2006 and remains so today; and 4) AAH is not related to SGs. After a brief description of Special Groups and AAH, this paper will explore the evidence in support of each hypothesis. The first two hypotheses are most plausible given what is known about these two groups. Because the evidence is ample but indirect, the paper will list the assumptions or qualifications required for each of these hypotheses to be true. The third and fourth hypothesis can be ruled out given the amount of contradictory evidence, the clear connections between the leadership of the two groups, and the statements by MNF‐I.