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Ctc Sentinel 9 v Combating Terrorism Center at West Point Objective • Relevant • Rigorous | January 2016 • Volume 9, Issue 1 FEATURE COMMENTARY A VIEW FROM THE CT FOXHOLE: The Threat in Richard Walton 2016 An interview with the head of Counter Terrorism Command at the London Metropolitan Police daniel benjamin and steven simon FEATURE COMMENTARY 1 The Global Terror Threat in 2016: A Forecast Editor in Chief Paul Cruickshank daniel benjamin and steven simon Managing Editor John Watling INTERVIEW 5 A View from the CT Foxhole: An Interview with Richard Walton, Head, EDITORIAL BOARD Colonel Cindy R. Jebb, Ph.D. Counter Terrorism Command, London Metropolitan Police Department Head paul cruickshank Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Ph.D. ANALYSIS Deputy Department Head Dept. of Social Sciences (West Point) 10 Hezbollah’s Calculus after the Iran Nuclear Deal Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Price, Ph.D. magnus ranstorp Director, CTC 14 Al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State Benefit as Yemen War Drags On Brian Dodwell gregory johnsen Deputy Director, CTC 18 The Islamic State and WMD: Assessing the Future Threat CONTACT stephen hummel Combating Terrorism Center 22 U.S. Military Academy The Hotel Attacks and Militant Realignment in the Sahara-Sahel 607 Cullum Road, Lincoln Hall Region West Point, NY 10996 andrew lebovich Phone: (845) 938-8495 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/ BRIEFINGS 29 The Jakarta Attack and the Islamic State Threat to Indonesia SUPPORT The Combating Terrorism Center kirsten e. schulze would like to express its gratitude to its financial supporters, for without their support and shared vision Our first issue of the year forecasts how the global terrorist threat may of the Center products like the evolve in 2016. Two months on from the Paris attacks and with deadly CTC Sentinel could not be produced. attacks already perpetrated in Istanbul, Jakarta, and Ouagadougou, If you are interested in learning there are storm clouds overhead. In our cover story Daniel Benjamin more about how to support the Combating and Steven Simon predict that continued progress in the campaign against the Islamic State in Terrorism Center, please visit http://www. Iraq and Syria could see the group double down in 2016 with increased attacks in Europe, Russia, ctc.usma.edu or call Allison Barry at West and Turkey as well as possibly Lebanon and Jordan. But they assess that an attack under the com- Point’s Association of Graduates at mand and control of the group is less likely in the United States. In our interview, Commander 845-446-1561. Richard Walton, who for almost half a decade has headed Counter Terrorism Command (SO15) at SUBMISSIONS the London Metropolitan Police, explains how British security agencies have mobilized to con- front an unprecedented terrorist threat. After the Paris attacks, France’s Prime Minister Manuel The CTC Sentinel welcomes submissions. Please contact us at [email protected]. Valls raised the specter of the Islamic State using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against the West, a threat Captain Stephen Hummel assesses in his article. With no end in sight to the conflict in Yemen, Gregory Johnsen predicts both al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic The views expressed in this report are State will continue to expand, and may, as they compete for recruits and try to outbid each other, those of the authors and not of the U.S. plot attacks against the West. In the Sahara-Sahel region, following attacks on hotels frequented Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. by Westerners in Bamako and Ouagadougou, Andrew Lebovich envisages that competition be- Government. tween groups aligned with the rival global terror franchises will lead to greater insecurity. Magnus Ranstorp analyzes how Hezbollah’s future calculations and behavior may be afected by the Irani- an nuclear deal and other regional dynamics. Kirsten Schulze provides a briefing on the Jakarta Cover: German police guard the Munich railway station during the New Year’s Eve attack and the Islamic State threat to Indonesia. Paul Cruickshank, Editor in Chief terror alert. GETTY JANUARY 2016 CTC SENTINEL 1 Te Global Terror Treat in 2016: A Forecast By Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and peshmerga in The Islamic State faces serious barriers to growth. It Iraq will continue to whittle away at Islamic State territory while in- has earned an array of capable adversaries, including terdicting its supply lines. This is already underway. Iraqi peshmer- the United States, Iran, Russia, and the Kurds, as well ga units are cutting of Islamic State access routes to Turkey, while as the Iraqi government and the Syrian regime. Military the United States, using air power and special operations forces, eforts against the Islamic State have steadily intensified blocks maneuver routes between Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State’s with the accumulation of intelligence against it, which battlefield successes will become increasingly scarce. Territory actu- ally controlled by the group will shrink. Although Russian airpower has facilitated targeting, and with greater coordination has been directed at armed Syrian opposition groups unafliated among and operational competence of its diverse with the Islamic State, it has been directed at the Islamic State as enemies. Its territorial losses and internal strains will well. And in Iraq, Iran has also contributed to the fight against the erode its ability to recruit. These challenges, however, Islamic State. Russia’s and Iran’s tacit collaboration is diplomat- will likely prompt increased attacks in Europe, Russia, ically awkward but militarily convenient in the fight against the Turkey, and possibly Lebanon and Jordan. Rivalry Islamic State. between jihadi groups could also spur attacks by al- Qa`ida and its afliates. An eclectic targeting strategy Panic and Progress combined with an ability to motivate lone wolves and For all the measurable success against the Islamic State, panic over returnees suggest that an impenetrable defense will the group persists throughout the West as it continues to launch be difcult to mount. Yet the actual threat, especially terrorist attacks, even as its ambitions to entrench the so-called ca- liphate in the Middle East fray. Public alarm has grown thanks to to the United States, is relatively manageable. Despite a stubbornly chaotic regional landscape in which jihadist violence this reality, U.S. political dynamics have generated a figures prominently, especially in states afected by the turmoil of nationwide anxiety that could contribute to violence. the Arab Spring. The contrast between the Islamic State’s decay In Europe, where the risks are higher, the prospects for in the Sunni heartland and the public perception of the group as social cohesion are bleaker. ascendant matters greatly. The success of a terrorist group depends not just on its actual strength, but also on its opponents’ percep- hat will 2016 bring for the contest between tions. This fear is stoked by a reckless media and by politicians the West and the jihadist movement? The who believe their electability hinges on pervasive public anxiety only certainty is, of course, more uncertainty and are therefore determined to paint as dire a picture as possible. and surprise. But it is, nonetheless, a good bet This stratagem is working, insofar as survey data show clearly that that we will see the principal paradox of this Americans, at least, feel they are under siege and at greater peril Wfight—the erosion of the Islamic State’s hold on its territory in Iraq than any time since 9/11.1 and Syria against a backdrop of continued Western anxiety—sharp- To dig deeper into the conditions driving these circumstances, en inexorably. That, in turn, will make the challenge of distinguish- consider the following. In 2016, air strikes by the United States ing appearance from reality in an asymmetric conflict—the core and its coalition partners will continue to become more efective challenge of the endeavor—a near impossibility in the fog of a U.S. as the intelligence base grows. Collection from UAVs (unmanned national election. aerial vehicles), a growing cadre of human sources, defectors, and The reality is that the Iraqi army and police, under the tutelage slowly improving signals intelligence all combine to make the air of U.S. and other Western forces, will slowly—at times impercepti- campaign more efective. Islamic State leaders are being killed at bly—climb back from the ignominy of their 2014 defeat in Mosul. an increasing pace;2 those who survive must spend more time and energy on personal security and less on command and control. Since the November 2015 decision to loosen restrictions on tar- geting3 and disregard the long-term costs of rebuilding infrastruc- Ambassador Daniel Benjamin is director of the John Sloan ture in favor of diminishing Islamic State revenue—primarily from Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth oil—the group’s fortunes have dwindled as its income has shrunk College and served as coordinator for counterterrorism at the State and the costs of a multi-front war have mounted. Increasingly, the Department 2009–2012. Steven Simon is a visiting lecturer at Islamic State relies on taxation of residents in the territory it con- Dartmouth and served as senior director for the Middle East and trols, though perhaps extortion is a more accurate term. Such ef- North Africa on the National Security Council staf 2011–2012. forts to raise funds further diminishes its popularity and heightens They are co-authors of The Age of Sacred Terror. resentment among inhabitants. The Islamic State had edged away 2 CTC SENTINEL JANUARY 2016 BENJAMIN / SIMON “Conventional terror atacks against a in Kenya, Uganda, and elsewhere.) As the Islamic State’s social me- dia output declines,5 messaging about the historical achievement of wide range of targets near and far will the caliphate rings ever more hollow and voices of dissent multiply.
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