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Investment Market Commentary

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Investment Market Commentary INVESTMENT MARKET COMMENTARY For the Period 1 October – 31 December 2020 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL APAM Ltd 3 Barrett Street London W1U 1AY T: 0207 963 8858 | E: | W: www.apamuk.com [email protected] As at 6 January 2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On Christmas Eve 2020, the UK and EU agreed a trade deal, ahead of the end of the transition period in January 2021. The deal has been referred to as a framework, with key issues such as financial services, to continue to be debated in the New Year. Yet, the deal represents a key moment in the UK’s exit from the bloc and assuages any concerns over the damaging effects of crashing out in a no-deal scenario. In certain areas, such as tax and state aid, the UK and EU have agreed high level commonality in rules but have not yet fleshed out the details. In other areas, such as farming, the UK has accepted greater friction in trade with the EU in order to assure the flexibility to strike deals with the rest of the world. With the conclusion of the EU trade deal and a separate deal with Turkey, the UK has now signed 62 trade agreements since it left the European Union. The markets have responded positively to the UK’s progress as it endeavours to redefine itself as a forward-thinking green tech hub in the post-Brexit world. After emerging from a month-long lockdown, the UK successfully approved and administered the world’s first COVID-19 vaccine. Markets rallied on the news with the MSCI All-Country World Index climbing by a record 12.2% in November, followed by a correction on 21 December after the discovery of a variant strain of the virus and the imposition of a strict lockdown which is expected to last until February. Returning optimism is balanced by remaining challenges yet to overcome, and whereas the end may be in sight, unemployment is expected to rise from 4.9% to 7.4% in 2021, which in turn could trigger a wave of defaults and bad debts. Retail empires have continued to collapse, but as lockdowns end and consumer confidence rises, those on their last cash reserves may survive. After a tumultuous four years of Trump, the global economy eagerly awaits a more level-headed Biden approach. President-elect Joe Biden has promised to reform relationships with allies and take a less reckless approach to international affairs. The shopping centre and student sectors are underperforming, while Build-to-Rent, industrial, and retail warehouse outperform. The office sector paints a mixed picture in which Grade B office markets are struggling, whereas Grade A space remains in demand. Life sciences and tech generally will be crucial to the post-COVID recovery of offices as the government endeavours to brand the UK as a global science and tech hub. The industrial sector continues to be buoyed by strong demand, increasingly in the cold storage sector, although there is nervousness around the weak retail sector, which in part underpins its demand. The retail sector experienced several high-profile liquidations and CVAs in the past few months as its retransformation accelerates. Build-to-Rent residential investment is largely unaffected by COVID-19, but the student sector is marked by rental write-offs, poor occupancy, and striking students. Several key phenomena are reshaping and will continue to reshape the UK commercial real estate landscape. COVID-19 has ushered in a rethinking of shared space, predominantly in offices. The UK government’s efforts to rebrand itself as a tech hub and champion of life sciences and green energy will also transform the real estate landscape, whether it be through heavy investment into technology parks or an ‘eco-friendly’ redesigning of cities. 2 Other factors could increase or decrease the flow of foreign capital to the UK. The management of Brexit is crucial and will define the UK economic landscape for decades, especially in terms of the future tax and competition status of the UK. Early trade deals with Singapore and Taiwan are promising signs. Finally, the degradation of East/West tensions and how Biden may approach them are integral to future global political and economic stability, which in turn influences investor willingness to place capital in perceived safe havens such as the UK. POLITICAL OVERVIEW The UK has agreed a trade deal with the EU, setting out the framework for cooperation and divergence over the coming decades. Although the finer details have not been finalised, a no-deal Brexit has been avoided and compromise has been reached, contrary to significant media commentary over the past few years. There remain key questions to answer, such as on financial services and Northern Ireland, but the agreement provides the momentum to tackle these issues head on. Although the transition period has ended, smaller micro-transition periods form part of the new deal; car manufacturers benefit from a six-year window before rules of origin change (rules on how much of a product must come from a particular nation). Important questions have been addressed by the deal: free movement has ended, except for short term business travel, and the UK and EU have agreed to diverge in certain respects, such as agriculture, in order to allow the UK to strike deals with the rest of the world. Over the coming months and years, implementation will be contested, independent bodies created, and legal teams across the continent will pore over the 1,246-page document. The government imposed a month-long lockdown in England on 5 November, amid rising COVID-19 cases. This lockdown was less severe than the first as construction sites remained open and essential work continued from the outset. High-frequency indicators of economic activity including volumes of people travelling to workplaces and HGV traffic remained unchanged compared with before the restrictions were imposed. On 2 December, the lockdown was replaced by a tiered system, which prevented retail and leisure-focused businesses from trading at full capacity. This was then followed by the discovery of a variant strain of the virus and a Christmas lockdown of varying regional intensity, causing sterling and the FTSE to dip on 21 December. Finally, on 4 January, the government introduced a nationwide lockdown, similar to the one experienced in March, which is expected to end in February. At the time of writing, it is estimated that every 1 in 50 people in England has COVID-19. However, preliminary vaccine testing results have shown high efficacy in tackling the virus, and the UK was the first to approve and administer doses. There are three principal vaccine contenders: Oxford-AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer-BioNTech. The Oxford vaccine is the cheapest to produce and, crucially, can be stored at standard temperatures of 2-8C. The other two vaccines have higher efficacy but are more expensive and require specialist cold temperature storage. Now that there is a vaccine it will be critical to the economic recovery as to how swift the rollout will be. Equity markets have bounced significantly as the vaccines were announced, although some of the excitement was dampened by the prospect of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Donald Trump lost the US presidential election to Joe Biden by 306 electoral college votes to 232. 67% of the eligible population voted, which represents the highest turnout since 1900. Biden secured over 80M votes, which 3 is the highest ever for a US president. The markets responded positively to the news, starved of certainty in recent years and yearning for a more level-headed presidential approach to geopolitics. Biden’s approach to the world stage will be pivotal in the coming years. His stance on Brexit, China, and Europe will all determine the strength of the global economy. It is unlikely that a Biden presidency will immediately relax East/West tensions. There will continue to be global political and economic instability for the foreseeable future. Global uncertainty has historically benefited UK property, which is perceived as relatively secure. Foreign investment into UK property will furthermore be amplified as trade deals are signed, especially with the US. UK ECONOMIC OVERVIEW TABLE 1: KEY UK ECONOMIC INDICATORS CPI GDP Halifax HPI Unemployment FTSE 10-year GBP/ GBP/ Inflation Growth Quarterly Rate (Oct-20) 100* Gilt Yield* EUR* USD* (Nov-20) (Oct-20) Change 0.3% 0.4% +3.8% 4.9% 6,787 0.25% 1.11 1.36 *As at 6 January 2021 The UK economy experienced record GDP growth of 15.5% between July-September following the lifting of the first COVID lockdown restrictions. The second lockdown has dampened the strength of recovery, but it is not as damaging as the first given that considerable economic activity has continued throughout the period. The W- shaped recovery now seems a far more likely outcome as periodic tightening and untightening of COVID restrictions becomes commonplace to keep the virus subdued before vaccines are widespread enough to lift all restrictions. The OECD forecasts that the UK will be hit hard by the pandemic with an economy 6% smaller by the end of 2021 than before the COVID crisis. This is the worst outcome of all G7 nations and many others across the globe and in part results from the UK’s services-focused economy. The OECD has predicted economic growth of - 11.2% in 2020, 4.2% in 2021, and 4.1% in 2022. Yet influential organisations such as Goldman Sachs are advising their clients to buy British, predicting that the pound could rise to $1.44 in 2021 as the economy recovers faster than expected and investment into UK business, infrastructure, and real estate continues to defy the gloomy forecasts.
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