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Page 11 Pages 6-7, 13 Page 4 Iranian Protests usher in transitions protesters adopt anthem but no light at end of tunnel of their own

The Arab Weekly staff

Tunis Ali Alfoneh he past week was a period of transitions and celebrations of change in parts of the very protest movement T Arab region. and revolution has an Algerians swore in a new elected anthem and poetry of president after months of street its own. Think of “La demonstrations, the Sudanese cel- Marseillaise” of the ebrated one year of regime-changing French Revolution, the protests, the Tunisians marked the E“Internationale” of socialist upris- ninth anniversary of the 2010 upris- ings and revolutions across Europe ing, which ousted former President and Russia and leftist, nationalist Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali from power, and Islamist anthems of Iran’s 1979 while the Iraqis and Lebanese strug- revolution. gled to agree on a new prime minis- Iran’s November 2019 protest is no ter after more than two months of exception. Released December 10, protests. Soroush Lashkari’s “With Clenched Socio-political dynamics have Fists” has become the anthem of the thrown stones into the region’s still latest protests but what is the mes- waters. Transitional authorities in sage of Lashkari’s poetry? abolished a repressive “moral Lashkari, 34, also known by his code” imposed for decades by Omar artistic name “Hichkas” (“No One”), al-Bashir’s Islamist regime. left Iran for Britain after the 2009 New Algerian President Abdelm- protests against the fraudulent adjid Tebboune promised to heed election that secured Mahmoud the lessons of the largely peaceful Ahmadinejad’s second term in office Hirak but protesters were divided on as Iran’s president. his proposed reforms. No fear. A woman protester confronts security forces during a demonstration in Algiers. (AP) At the time, Lashkari’s “A Better The sectarian systems of Day Will Come” was widely inter- and , along with the shadow of preted as a commentary on the Iran and its proxies, have been under The protesters attacked Iranian con- In Lebanon, Washington wields not apply the law nor is the political Islamic Republic’s harsh repression assault. However, the old systems do sulates in Najaf and Sulaymaniyah the sanctions card. US measures establishment subject to oversight of the protests. not seem ready for retreat quite yet. but there were still reports of Iranian against Hezbollah-connected banks mechanisms which give rise to cor- From his self-chosen exile in Lebanese President Major-General Qassem Soleimani and businesses, which were among ruption and unaccountability that London, Lashkari, in cooperation said December 19 that he named as meddling in Iraq’s government for- the causes of Lebanon’s economic creates frustration,” said Salamey. with other Iranian musicians and prime minister the academic and mation talks. crisis, could be followed by sanc- It is not clear what kind of compro- songwriters, not only innovated former minister Hassan Diab, de- In Iran and Iraq, the tug of war tions against Hezbollah’s Christian mises will be accepted, if at all, by Persian-language rap music but also spite opposition from protesters. between protesters and the rul- allies. the largely leaderless protests. followed developments in Iran as his Hezbollah was said to be the main ing elite has been intertwined with Protests in Iraq, Lebanon and to The other key question is whether primary source of inspiration. political force behind the nomina- the US-Iran showdown but, while a large extent those in and the protests will improve or worsen He is the sole singer and song- tion of Diab. it was encouraged by Washington Sudan are in a way a “revolution of the economic situations, which had writer to translate the desperation, Imad Salamey, a political science pundits to seize the opportunity of rising expectations” with protesters sparked the unrest in the first place. rage and hopes of the protesters into professor at the Lebanese American the mounting resentment of Iraqis wanting to do away with the ruling “Transitions can be very costly, rhyme: University, said Diab’s appointment against Iran’s encroachment, the elites in order to “get their country especially if there is resistance to “With clenched fists, bereaved of will deepen Lebanon’s crisis because Trump administration dramatically back.” change by political elites,” Salamey all possessions and left in a desert it means “the coming government reduced the size of its diplomatic Much has to do with outdated sys- said. with thirsty lips, with all hopes will be dominated by Hezbollah and staff in Baghdad, casting doubt tems of government and obsolete “Resistance to change can be very killed without even receiving the its allies” without Sunni support. about its willingness to push for an social contracts. “The problem is not costly both economically and hu- corpse,” the song begins with refer- In Iraq, demonstrators chanted Iraqi government that stands up to in the text of social contracts but it manely,” he added. ence to families who did not even “Iran out” in massive street protests. Iran. is in weak state institutions that can- P 2-3, 5-6, 8-9, 13 receive the bodies of their killed loved ones. “Even absent the sanctions, hap- piness is not possible as if the home- land is a colony where not a cent is Turkey’s militarised foreign policy puts spent on the nation,” continues the song reflecting the widespread belief that Iran’s ruling elites are enriching Ankara on collision course with Russia themselves rather than caring about the welfare of the Iranian public. Thomas Seibert military support. activism in the Eastern Mediterra- has changed. Eruptions of violence, Iranians, Lashkari sings, “work Citing military sources, the inter- nean against Greece over Cyprus.” such as the Syrian war on Turkey’s day and night but have to ask for a net publication Haberturk reported Military power has always played southern border, demonstrated the loan at the end of the month, are Istanbul that Turkey may build a mili- a role in Turkey but, in recent years, limits of soft power for Turkish lead- now streaming into the streets to tary base in like those unilateral military action has be- ers. Ankara’s bond with the Muslim somehow get what is rightfully urkey is increasingly relying in if the Libyan gov- come a much more regular feature Brotherhood and its neo-Ottoman theirs.” on military capabilities in its ernment asks for a Turk- of Turkish foreign policy, sparking rhetoric alienated governments in Even more directly, the song at- foreign policy, triggering re- ish troop deployment. friction with neighbours, regional the Middle East while Ankara’s rela- tacks the regime: “They don’t want T gional and international ten- Ankara said it is try- powers and other NATO members. tions with the European Union and citizens but slaves, from the cells sions, the latest being with Russia ing to make its voice Since 2016, Turkey has staged the United States soured. one hears cries and shrieks.” about a potential troop deployment heard in a region three military interventions in Turkey’s latest Syria intervention The song goes on and on but not in Libya. where conflicts on Syria. In November, Erdogan triggered a crisis of confidence with with an optimistic end: “It’s world- Ankara seems to be on a collision Turkey’s doorstep announced the construction the United States. At the same time, weary, who are screaming.” But at course with Moscow over Turkey’s pose threats and of a second military base in Turkey threatened military action to least the protesters of the song are plans to deploy troops in support of where other players Qatar. Turkish soldiers are stop gas exploration by other coun- screaming: “We are all in it together.” the Islamist-backed Tripoli govern- ignore Turkish inter- deployed in . tries off Cyprus, driving up tensions For now, Iran’s ruling elites are ment. ests. However, the ap- A decade ago, in the Eastern Mediterranean. turning a deaf ear to the poetry of Turkish President Recep Tayyip proach is not winning soft power and the Some observers said it is doubtful the protests but, by ignoring the Erdogan assailed the presence of the Turkey any friends. “Turkish model” that the abrasive approach will turn critical voices, they may be losing a Russian private military company Mustafa Gurbuz, a of a “Muslim de- out to be to Turkey’s advantage, precious opportunity to the society Wagner in Libya and Russia said it non-resident fellow at mocracy” were breeding only confrontations. they are increasingly alienating. was “very concerned” by the possi- Arab Centre in Wash- at the centre ble Turkish troop deployment. ington, said: “Erdogan’s of Turkey’s Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Erdogan recently stated Turkey nationalist allies are foreign policy. correspondent. Arab Gulf States Institute in Wash- was ready to send troops to Libya pushing for military The picture ington. to back the internationally recog- Full version of this article appears on nised government in Tripoli, which Making no friends. Turkish soldier patrols the northern Syrian www.thearabweekly.com Full version of this article appears on is already a recipient of Turkish town of Tal Abyad, on the border with Turkey, in October . (AFP) P 5, 7 14,16 www.thearabweekly.com 2 December 22, 2019 Top news Iraq at ‘crossroads’ as protesters push for overhaul of ruling elite

Nabil Ahmed Iraqi authorities outsourced their dirty work against protesters, leav- ing just as the killings commenced Baghdad and returning to assist with ar- rests.” raqi protesters seem headed “If they stood by and allowed towards another victory over these armed men to attack pro- the ruling parties resisting de- testers or carried out the murders I mands for an overhaul of the themselves, the Iraqi government political system protesters see as forces will be responsible,” she profoundly corrupt and flagrantly said. influenced by neighbouring Iran. Divisions between parties cling- Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- ing to power have threatened to Political paralysis. An Iraqi protester carrying his national flag walks past graffiti at Tahrir Square in Mahdi yielded to the protesters’ cause more unrest as protesters Baghdad, December 20. (AFP) demands to resign but not until seem adamant that the next prime more than 450 people were killed minister be independent and not run-up to the deadline, which without needing parliament’s ap- in the southern provinces,” Nujaifi and an estimated 20,000 wounded under suspicion of corruption. started on Abdul-Mahdi’s resigna- proval, as the constitution stipu- replied: “All of Iraq does not accept in a government crackdown since The protesters’ specifications for tion date. lates. Iranian influence.” protests began October 1. the next prime minister included Salih said he received a letter The unusual disassociation of Iraqi Professor Mohamed al-Ru- not having held any ministerial from the parliament speaker ac- the highest Shia religious author- beai, writing in Baghdad’s Al Mada post since 2003, not being over 55 cepting Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation ity, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, newspaper, accused leaders of fol- The unusual disassociation years old or a dual citizen of anoth- on December 4 although it was from the process is another fac- lowing an “ostrich strategy” that of the highest Shia religious er country in addition to pledging tendered December 1. tor complicating the negotiations. consists of ignoring protesters’ de- authority, Grand Ayatollah not to run in upcoming elections. Leaked names of prime minister While he has played kingmaker mands. “The truth is that ostriches Ali al-Sistani, from the Faced with the ruling elite’s ina- candidates included Mohammed of Iraqi governments since 2003, do not actually bury their heads in process is another factor bility to nominate a candidate who Shia’ al-Sudani, Qusay al-Suhail, Sistani recently said this time he the sand. I see it as a useful meta- complicating the meets the demonstrators’ specifi- Asaad al-Eidani, Moustafa al-Kaze- intended to play no role, only ex- phor for describing the Iraqi lead- negotiations. cations, protesters are not likely to mi, Raed Jouhi, Tawfiq al-Yassiri, pressing a wish that the choice be ers who face a great challenge and stop calling for regime change. Ali Abdul Amir Allawi. made without “foreign interfer- perhaps chronic psychological Despite Abdul-Mahdi’s resigna- A protester who identified him- However, none seems to stand ence.” problems by denying reality,” he tion, protests continued in the face self as Ali told the Associated Press a chance of gaining protesters’ ap- Former parliament Speaker Osa- said. of repression, killings and abduc- that he and his comrades had gone proval. Sudani, a former minister ma al-Nujaifi described the situa- Rubeai wrote: “Think for a mo- tions to which the Iraqi govern- too far to stop now. “This is a one- and ex-governor who announced tion in Iraq as “a dangerous cross- ment when you hear the resigned ment appears complicit, Human way street,” he said. “It’s either us his resignation from the Islamic roads,” pointing out to a “signed prime minister, former prime min- Rights Watch (HRW) said. or them. If they win this time, it’s Dawa Party, was the first to face request by 150 deputies to choose isters and leaders of political forces HRW put the human toll in over.” widespread street rejection on an independent personality for the refusing to admit responsibility for Baghdad’s main protest area on The constitution says the prime grounds that he was not “inde- prime minister’s post” who can the spread of administrative and December 6 at 29-80 killed and 137 minister is to be selected by the pendent,” being a long-standing manage “a transitional phase.” Al- financial corruption, mismanage- injured. largest parliamentary bloc but none member of a party known to have hurra news channel quoted him ment and violation of human dig- The HRW report was based of the names floated gained street strong historical links with Iran. as saying that “the street wants nity… Why do they prefer to look on interviews with witnesses of approval and Iraqi President Bar- Agence France-Presse quoted a reforms, a new government, the other way, instead of tackling violence at Al-Khilani Square. It ham Salih postponed the process source familiar with the negotia- elections and anti-corruption problems head-on?” quoted Sarah Leah Whitson, HRW to December 22, based on a fed- tions as saying Salih was betting on stances…” Middle East director as saying: eral court ruling allowing holidays Sudani’s rejection “so he can pre- Responding to a question about Nabil Ahmed is a former broadcast “There’s very strong evidence the to be excluded from the 15-day sent the candidate of his choice” “the rejection of Iranian hegemony journalist writing from Iraq. Hezbollah-backed PM-designate faces backlash from Sunnis

Samar Kadi should come from the Sunni com- of dollars in frozen aid for which served as minister of education Visiting US Under-Secretary of munity and is usually backed by Lebanon is in bad need.” from 2011-14 in a government State for Political Affairs David the community’s main leaders. “We are obviously heading to- formed after Hezbollah brought Hale encouraged Lebanese politi- “Diab has been stamped in the wards a polarised government down a previous Hariri cabinet. cians to commit to the necessary Western media as Hezbollah’s can- which will not gain any interna- Following Diab’s appointment, reforms that can lead to a stable, he nomination of Hezbol- didate and his government, regard- tional support because the US-Iran protesters gathered in Beirut’s Mar- prosperous and secure country. lah-backed Hassan Diab less of how many ‘technocrats’ it talks have not matured yet and tyrs’ Square, the epicentre of the “It’s time to put aside partisan as prime minister-desig- will include, will be regarded as a Lebanon will be part of any US-Iran protests, and cut off roads. They interests and act in the national T nate to form Lebanon’s Hezbollah-dominated administra- deal. The West wants to make Iran rejected Diab and cast him as part interest,” Hale said, adding the so-called “salvation government” tion,” Mounayar said. pay a price in Lebanon, Iraq and of the old class of politicians they 2-month-old anti-government pro- will unlikely help the debt-ridden “A government dominated by Syria,” Mounayar added. are revolting against. tests reflected the Lebanese peo- country to overcome its worst so- Hezbollah, which has been target- Diab, a 60-year-old professor “I see the country is going to ple’s “longstanding and legitimate cio-economic and financial crisis ed by increasingly biting US sanc- at American University of Beirut waste. With this kind of govern- demands for economic and insti- since the 1975-90 civil war. tions, is unlikely to secure billions largely unknown to the public, ment, no one will deal with it, no tutional reform, better governance Diab’s designation, which came Arab, no Europe and no US,” Saeb and an end to endemic corrup- after caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hujrat, a protester in the square, tion.” Hariri pulled out of the race, was told the Associated Press. endorsed by a weak majority in In his first public address, Diab, Johnny Mounayar parliament comprising Iran-backed who described himself as an “in- Hezbollah and its allies, Shia Amal dependent,” said he would work “Sunnis feel that they Movement and President Michel quickly to form a government in have been humiliated and Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic consultations with all political par- marginalised by Diab’s Movement. ties and representatives of the pro- appointment.” Hariri’s Future Movement bloc test movement. did not nominate a candidate in the He said he is committed to a re- much-delayed consultations with form plan and described the cur- Demonstrators of all sectar- the president. Other blocs nomi- rent situation as “critical and sensi- ian backgrounds have been in the nated former Ambassador to the tive” requiring exceptional efforts streets every day since October 17 United Nations Nawaf Salam. and collaboration. to demand the removal of the en- Analysts said Diab’s failure to se- A daunting task awaits Diab and tire political leadership, seen as cure a consensus, especially from his efforts to form a government corrupt and incompetent. his Sunni community at exception- will almost certainly hit snags in Pierre Issa, secretary-general of ally difficult times, makes it more the deeply divided country, even the National Bloc party, which is complicated for him to form an in- if Hezbollah and its allies sought participating in the protest move- clusive government. to facilitate his mission, journalist ment, said protesters are mostly “Today we have a mobilisation Amin Kammourieh said. unhappy with Diab’s appointment of the Sunni community,” said po- “His (Diab’s) appointment could and would continue demonstrat- litical analyst Johnny Mounayar. be a test,” Kammourieh said. “If ing. “Whether they like or (economic and political) pressures “We fear Diab might form a cos- not, the Sunnis feel that they have at home and from the international metic cabinet of experts who are been humiliated and marginalised community exacerbated, Hezbol- effectively controlled by political by Diab’s appointment. The mood lah and its allies might reconsider parties and this won’t solve the cri- is very tense and might be a prel- Diab’s eligibility or they would go sis,” Issa said. ude to Sunni-Shia friction.” What’s in store? Hassan Diab arrives to talk to the media after for a unilateral government and Under Lebanon’s sectarian-based being named Lebanon’s new prime minister, December 19. take all the challenges that come Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly political system the prime minister (Reuters) with it.” Travel and Society section editor. December 22, 2019 3 Top news

Algeria’s new president reiterates reform pledges, protesters divided

Lamine Ghanmi see whether the cabinet of Bouka- protests that led to his downfall. doum will be short in duration or In a symbolic but important move, lengthy and what the shape and line- Tebboune declared that the presi- Tunis up of the new government will be. It dent would no longer be referred to is through the new government that as “Your Excellency” (“Fakhama- lgerian President Abdelm- we can identify, with more precision, touhou” in ) but as “Mr Presi- adjid Tebboune was sworn the policy of the new president,” po- dent.” into office December 18, litical writer Sonia Lyes said. “We are all Algerians. No one is A promise of reforms. Newly elected Algerian President A succeeding long-time leader Tebboune, who served as prime greater than another,” he said. speaks during a news conference Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who was oust- minister under Bouteflika, won 58% He promised that young people in Algiers, December 13. (DPA) ed by mass protests eight months of the vote in the December 12 poll. would have greater access to posi- ago. The election was marred by mass tions of power through revisions to Tebboune promised an “extended protests and a low turnout rate of the electoral law. whether Tebboune releases doz- wards civil disobedience and revolu- hand for direct dialogue” with pro- 40%, official figures indicated. More than 53% of Algerians under ens of detained protesters, includ- tion. If they can do that, we will ap- democracy protesters who had large- Tebboune is seen as close to armed the age of 30 are unemployed gradu- ing leaders, a central demand of the plaud them,” Dijlali said. “Otherwise, ly opposed the election. forces Chief-of-Staff General Ahmed ates and school dropouts have been a movement. two other options are left: abandon One of his first acts in office was Gaid Salah, who has been Algeria’s large part of the protest movement. “The first step for dialogue is to the protests or organise the protests to fire Interior Minister Salah Eddine de facto strongman since Bouteflika’s While Tebboune outlined a strat- free the detainees who enjoy the into pluralist organisations to fill the Dahmoune, who had criticised oppo- ouster. He and other military leaders egy to diversify the economy and trust of the Hirak (pro-democracy political vacuum.” nents of the December 12 election as attended the swearing-in ceremony end Algeria’s dependence on oil and protests),” said Islam Benattia, a lead- Analysts said Algeria is experienc- “fake Algerians, traitors, mercenar- alongside the four defeated presiden- gas exports, his promises of reforms ing protest figure. “Their release will ing a kind of “political desertifica- ies, perverts (and) homosexuals.” tial candidates. and economic diversification seemed ease the tensions and help open the tion.” Housing Minister Kamel Beldjoud Tebboune was fired by Bouteflika similar to pledges made by Bouteflika way for wise people among the Hirak They pointed out the ruling Na- was picked to replace Dahmoune in after he targeted “political money” a few days before he was ousted. and the regime to overcome, togeth- tional Liberation Front and the Na- the new cabinet, headed by acting and corruption but protesters still see What remains to be seen is wheth- er, this crisis.” tional Democratic Rally both backed Prime Minister Sabri Boukadoum, Tebboune as part of the regime they er Tebboune will be granted leeway “If the crisis persists, the situation the failed candidacy of former Cul- who previously served as foreign want dismantled to establish a “civil from the military to tame protests will be worse and everyone will lose: ture Minister Azzedine Mihoubi. minister. democracy, not military state.” without violence. Analysts said mov- youth and old people, elites and ordi- Leaderless protests underlined Analysts said the cabinet would ing beyond Algeria’s military-dom- nary Algerians. If we fail to overcome the weakness of opposition parties, work as a caretaker government while inated regime will be a gradual step. together the situation, we will regret which are struggling to push for Tebboune consults with national fig- One of Tebboune’s first Tebboune spoke highly of the mili- that we missed the opportunity of- broader political freedoms. ures to select a prime minister who is acts in office was to fire tary, praising the armed forces for fered by the protests,” he added. “It is not certain that the new presi- “most palatable” to protesters. Interior Minister Salah protecting protesters and the coun- He was assailed by other protest- dent has the power and the ability Algeria’s ruling elite, including the Eddine Dahmoune. try and singling out Gaid Salah as the ers on social media as preparing for a to enter a genuine dialogue with the military, said Tebboune will tame the “moudjahid” (“freedom fighter”). “political sell-out.” protest figures and the opposition 10-month-old protest movement that Tebboune outlined reforms in his His election left leading protest Opposition leader Soufiane Djilali because we can easily imagine that jolted the country’s army-dominated first presidential speech, many of figures divided over how to move for- and other politicians said they face the high command of the military has regime and threatened to worsen its them claimed by protesters. He an- ward. Some advocated accepting his a dilemma: either accept dialogue or already drawn ‘red lines’ for this dia- deep economic crisis. nounced plans to revise the constitu- offer of dialogue while others hoped take the radical path of civil disobedi- logue,” said Algiers University Profes- Many protesters claim Tebboune is tion to introduce a two-term limit for to increase protests to strengthen ence. sor Mohamed Hennad. part of the regime they are seeking to presidents. their hand ahead of negotiations that “The alternative to dialogue is the change. Bouteflika’s bid for a fifth term — could lead to “genuine democracy.” organisation of the protesters to defy Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly “The whole country is waiting to despite his poor health — sparked the Both camps are waiting to see the authority of the state and go to- correspondent in Tunis. Sudanese celebrate first marks anniversary anniversary of uprising of revolution as it grapples that ousted al-Bashir with socio-economic woes

The Arab Weekly staff protest groups are under pressure The Arab Weekly staff achieve the goal. He promised to police harassment. Since then, the to address economic and political return to the region “when funds Sidi Bouzid region has experienced problems, restore the rule of law are allocated for development further unrest fuelled by unem- London and protect human rights. Tunis programmes.” ployment and poverty. “On the first anniversary of the Tunisians expressed their frus- In December, protests broke undreds of thousands of revolution, we reaffirm the con- unisia on December 17 tration with promises, demanding out in the region after the death people marched across tinuation of covenant with the commemorated the start action to save the country from of a 25-year-old man who set Sudan to mark the first Sudanese people and we will not of the uprising that toppled economic collapse. The despair was himself on fire in the impover- H anniversary of the start deviate from the demand for free- T President Zine el-Abidine noted during parliamentary and ished town of Jelma in despera- of the uprising that toppled long- dom, peace and justice,” the Su- Ben Ali, with recently elected Tuni- presidential election campaigns tion over his economic situation. time Islamist-backed President danese Professionals Association, sian President vowing to this year, with voters pushing for Omar al-Bashir and demand jus- the main protest group during the “honour the demands of the revo- change and attempting to create a Tunisians expressed tice for people who died during uprising, said on Twitter. lution.” new political reality. protests. Amnesty International said it Saied, an academic with no prior A recent poll by Sigma Conseil their frustration with Waving national flags and chant- was “time to deliver” on human political experience, recorded a said more than 80% of Tunisian promises, demanding ing slogans, marchers vowed to rights. landslide election victory in Octo- respondents said the country was action to save the press on with the political transi- “The responsibility on Prime ber. He has made few public state- “going in the wrong direction.” country from economic tion that stemmed from the pro- Minister Hamdok’s shoulders is ments since taking office. It showed, however, the collapse. tests that began December 19, as large as the aspirations of the However, he made an unan- president to be the most 2018, in Atbara and led to the mili- Sudanese people who suffered nounced visit to Sidi Bouzid, where trusted public figure. While Tunisia has been praised tary deposing al-Bashir on April 11. decades of serious human rights the first protests of Tunisia’s up- Saied announced in as a model of democratic transi- Repeating a rallying cry for jus- violations and crimes under inter- rising erupted, and promised to Sidi Bouzid that De- tion, wealth and control of the tice for those killed when security national law including genocide, realise the key demands of the cember 17 would be economy remain concentrated forces fired weapons to end a sit- war crimes and crimes against hu- revolution — freedom, work and a national holiday. in the hands of a small group in near Sudanese Defence Minis- manity,” said Seif Magango, Am- dignity — within the “framework Tunisia already marks against a background of region- try headquarters and al-Bashir’s nesty International deputy direc- of the constitution and within January 14, the date al imbalances, slow economic residence, they shouted: “Blood tor for East Africa. “The victims legitimacy.” Ben Ali was deposed, growth and a large informal sec- for blood, we won’t accept blood have the right to truth, justice and “I will work… as a holiday. tor. money!” reparations under international to honour your Ben Ali died in Deteriorating living standards A Sudanese court on December l a w.” demands,” he told September in and rising prices are causing in- 14 convicted al-Bashir on corrup- The public prosecutor’s office a crowd in Sidi Saudi Ara- creasing atrophy of the middle tion charges and sentenced him to said in a statement December 19 Bouzid. bia at the class. The country is grappling two years of detention in a reform that it had opened more than 400 Though Saied age of 83. with an inflation rate of more facility, the first ruling against the cases alleging corruption and that spoke of the Protests than 6% and the unemployment former president. it was committed to investigating political will to broke out rate stands at more than 15%, Some protesters waved posters “all those who committed viola- resolve many December with nearly double that rate of Abdalla Hamdok, Sudan’s civil- tions and all those who wasted the of the coun- 17, 2010, among youth and women. ian prime minister who heads a blood of martyrs.” try’s problems after street The country’s government has technocratic government. “Ham- The statement said cases have and meet the vendor been in limbo since October’s dok represents me,” the signs said. been opened from 1989, the year demands of Mohamed legislative elections as Prime However, the authorities gov- al-Bashir seized power in a coup, the people, Bouazizi, Minister-designate Habib Jemli erning under a 3-year power-shar- through June 30, 2019. he did not set himself struggled to put together a coali- ing agreement between the mili- present pro- on fire to tion government that could win tary and former opposition and (With Reuters.) grammes to protest parliamentary approval. 4 December 22, 2019 Top news

German parliament calls for full ban of Hezbollah activities

The Associated Press

Berlin

he German parliament passed a resolution De- cember 19 calling for a na- T tional ban on the activities of Hezbollah and for the Lebanese militant group to be put on the Eu- ropean Union’s terrorist list. Mathias Middelberg, spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Mer- kel’s conservatives in parliament, said the resolution was agreed upon with the junior coalition Social Democrats, as well as the opposi- tion Free Democrats. “It is unacceptable that Hezbol- lah is waging a terrorist fight against Israel in the Middle East, which is being financed through worldwide criminal activities, among other things,” he said in a statement. “In view of Germany’s special responsi- bility towards Israel, we call on the government to ban all activities for Hezbollah in Germany.”

Britain banned Hezbollah in March following moves of other countries, including the Netherlands, the United States and Canada.

The European Union lists Iran- backed Hezbollah’s military wing as a banned terrorist group but not its political wing, which has been part of Lebanese governments in recent years. “The separation between a po- ing Hezbollah to the EU terrorist Hezbollah.” ing several sets of sanctions on the caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hari- litical and a military arm should list could complicate relations with It was not clear whether the group and its regional backer, Iran. ri’s unity cabinet, which resigned be abandoned and Hezbollah as Lebanon. Members of the Greens resolution would prompt the gov- In Berlin, US Ambassador to Germa- October 29 in response to mass anti- a whole should be placed on the said they agreed with almost all ernment to pursue the ban of Hez- ny Richard Grenell applauded the government protests amid a wors- EU terrorist list,” Middelberg said. of the resolution but objected to a bollah’s activities but, with the resolution, saying “we stand ready ening economic crisis. “This could freeze Hezbollah’s point that they said could lead to governing parties and most of the to support the government’s imple- Israel and Hezbollah fought a funds and assets in Europe more ex- “military intervention” in the Mid- opposition on board, such action mentation of a ban.” month-long war in 2006 that ended tensively than before.” east. seemed likely. German Foreign Minister Hei- in a UN-brokered ceasefire. While However, other member coun- Johann Wadephul, a politician Several lawmakers noted that ko Maas acknowledged that with direct fighting has been rare since tries have opposed broadening the with Merkel’s Christian Democrats, a ban would allow authorities to Hezbollah’s ties to Lebanese gov- then, there has been occasional vio- scope of the European Union’s Hez- offered assurance that the resolu- prevent Hezbollah supporters from ernment “the political reality in lence, most recently September 1 bollah ban. tion’s call for measures to reduce staging an annual anti-Israel march Lebanon is complex,” but, he said, when Hezbollah fired anti-tank mis- The parliamentary resolution in the influence of Hezbollah in the in Berlin. “this should not prevent us from siles into Israel and Israel respond- Germany was approved December region, particularly in Syria, did not Britain banned Hezbollah in exhausting the legal possibilities ed with artillery fire. 19 with a majority show of hands by foresee military action. March following moves of other in Germany to tackle Hezbollah’s The barrage was in retaliation for members of Merkel’s bloc, the So- “But we are all called upon to countries, including the Nether- criminal and terrorist activities.” an Israeli air strike in Syria, which cial Democrats and the Free Demo- isolate Hezbollah internationally,” lands, the United States and Cana- “Hezbollah denies Israel’s right to Hezbollah said killed two of its crats. Other parties represented in Wadephul told fellow lawmakers. da. exist, threatens violence and terror members. It also followed an in- the German legislature abstained. “They threaten Israel, they threaten The German resolution comes as and continues to massively increase cident in which two Israeli drones The Left Party said it could not the peace process in the Mideast the United States has been increas- its arsenal of missiles,” Maas said. crashed in a Hezbollah stronghold vote for the resolution because add- and therefore we must confront ing pressure on Hezbollah, plac- In Lebanon, Hezbollah was part of in southern Beirut. GCC reconciliation attempts with Qatar face new obstacles

Mohammed Alkhereiji close ties with Iran at the expense of evade its commitments,” Gargash neighbouring countries. said. The Arab Quartet issued demands “Riyadh is leading a wide front London for Qatar to comply with to normal- [composed] of its brotherly [coun- ise relations, which included sev- tries] in this portfolio and other tatements by Qatari Foreign ering ties with Islamic extremists, regional portfolios, and its commit- Minister Mohammed bin Ab- shutting Al Jazeera TV and scaling ment to demands and allies is essen- dulrahman al-Thani regard- back relations with Tehran. tial and firm.” S ing rapprochement of Qatar Instead, strengthened rela- A diplomatic source in the Gulf with irked members tions with Iran, while expanding said Doha’s “divide and conquer” of the Gulf Cooperation Council and ties with the Muslim Brotherhood- attempts might put talks with Saudi risked prolonging the 30-month dis- friendly government in Turkey, Arabia at a dead end. The source pute. which Thani said would continue said Riyadh, which is the leader of In interviews addressing develop- and was non-negotiable. Turkey has the boycott, assured mediators that ments with Riyadh, Thani said the established two military bases in Qa- Qatar needs to fully comply with the “stalemate” with Saudi Arabia had tar since June 2017. quartet’s demands. been broken. Recent developments might hin- “There (is) some progress… We der Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have broken the stalemate of non- UAE Minister of State for reconciliation. These include an on- communication to starting commu- Foreign Affairs Anwar line campaign calling for a boycott of nication with the Saudis,” Thani told Gargash accused Doha of Emirati products sold in Saudi Ara- Birds of a feather. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad CNN on December 15. trying to cause “division” bia. UAE officials said they suspect Javad Zarif (L) and Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin In an interview with Bloomberg among countries the campaign originated in Qatar. Abdulrahman al-Thani at the Doha Forum in the Qatari capital, TV, Thani confirmed that talks on involved in the dispute. Under the hashtag “Boycott Emi- December 15. (AFP) resolving the dispute had only in- rati products,” online campaigners cluded Saudi Arabia and none of the Thani’s statements did not sit well called on consumers in Saudi Arabia other members of the Arab Quartet with some Gulf officials, particularly to shun products from the United media users from outside Saudi Ara- that products exported into the king- — the , in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arab Emirates, especially tobacco- bia.” dom were in line with the standards and — that severed ties with Arabia’s main regional partner. based products, alleging they con- It said the campaign was from of the World Health Organisation. Doha in 2017. UAE Minister of State for Foreign tain “lethal poison.” countries known for their “hostility Thani’s statements, which UAE “Our conversation right now is Affairs Anwar Gargash, writing on Campaign supporters targeted towards the United Arab Emirates” and Bahraini officials coupled with with Saudi Arabia and we think we Twitter, accused Doha of trying to goods manufactured in the Jebel and that the goal was to create ten- the subsequent campaign against are going to look at the rest of the is- cause “division” among countries Ali Free Zone in Dubai, claiming the sion between Saudi Arabia and the UAE products, are the latest obsta- sues at a later stage,” Thani said. involved in the dispute. products were made for export and United Arab Emirates. cles facing GCC reconciliation and In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the “The latest Qatari leaks concern- prohibited from being sold in the In an interview on Saudi Televi- could make attempts at it with Qatar United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and ing solving Doha’s crisis with sis- United Arab Emirates. sion, Hisham al-Jadhey, CEO of the even more daunting. Egypt imposed a boycott on Qa- terly Saudi Arabia, without the three The Dubai Media Office said: “In- Saudi Food and Drug Authority, said tar over accusations it was funding [other] countries, is a repetition of vestigations showed that the false reports that products were causing Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf radical Islamist groups and fostering Doha’s aims to [cause] division and campaign was promoted by social health problems were untrue and section editor of The Arab Weekly. December 22, 2019 5 Top news

Libya war dramatically escalates as Russia expresses concern over possible Turkish intervention

Anti-Turkish feelings run deep throughout Libya, based on centuries of perceived Ottoman misrule

Michel Cousins that prospect. Erdogan said on December 20 that Turkey would not remain silent over support by Tunis Russian “mercenaries” to the LNA while Moscow openly criticised he struggle for control of Turkey’s plans for military deploy- Libya, pitting the Liby- ment in Libya. an National Army (LNA) Erdogan was referring to the sup- T against the Government of port which the Wagner Group, a National Accord (GNA) , has dra- private Russian military company matically escalated, moving into a close to the Kremlin, is said to be stage that could either see the civil providing to LNA’s troops led by war end in an LNA army victory or Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar. widen into a regional conflict. “Through the group named The Government of National Ac- Wagner, they are literally working cord announced it had activated as Haftar’s mercenaries in Libya. the agreement in which Turkey is to You know who is paying them,” provide military support to troops Erdogan told Turkish broadcaster and militant militias backing the NTV. “That is the case and it would GNA. not be right for us to remain silent The details of the agreement against all of this. We have done our have not been disclosed but Turk- best until now and will continue to ish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan do so.” said Turkish troops would be sent Russia earlier said it was “very to Libya if the GNA requested their concerned” by the prospect of Tur- intervention. GNA Prime Minister key sending troops to Libya and that Fayez al-Sarraj said he was not yet the agreement between Ankara and asking for such help but that was Tripoli “raised many questions” for before the Libyan National Army Moscow, the Interfax news agency intensified its bombardment of reported. Tripoli and edged closer towards There was speculation that Turk- the city centre. ish troops deployed in Libya could A powder keg waiting to blow. A fighter loyal to the Government of National Accord carries a bullet greatly change the military situa- belt as he and fellow fighters hold a position south of Tripoli. (AFP) tion. In the case of Turkish inter- The LNA could be forced vention, the LNA could be forced to could develop into hostile protests. The LNA, pitted for nearly nine ing and evolving situation, with its to withdraw and could withdraw and its retreat could lead There would probably be a surge months in fierce battles against potential for a regional confronta- even be pursued as it to Libya being definitively divided in Libyan nationalism across the the GNA troops on the outskirts of tion, other outside players are try- retreated, which would into eastern and western parts. country. Tripoli, is trying to force the situ- ing to secure a diplomatic deal. set up many different Egypt would be pressured to send Everything depends on a Turkish ation before Turkey intervenes. It Italian Foreign Minister Luigi scenarios. in forces in response. A Turkey- deal with Russia but Turkey is un- issued a statement December 20 Di Maio was in Tripoli for a meet- Egypt confrontation in Libya could likely to go ahead with deployment telling pro-GNA Misrata militias to ing with Sarraj and in Benghazi to It has not been officially an- devolve into a regional war. plans against the objections of Rus- withdraw from Tripoli and the city talk with Haftar on December 17. nounced, either by Ankara or Trip- Anti-Turkish feelings run deep sia. With Russian “mercenaries” of Sirte within three days. His efforts have the backing of the oli, that Turkish troops would be throughout Libya, based on centu- fighting alongside the LNA, neither The Misratans, along with mili- French, the British and the Ger- sent but the GNA’s activation of the ries of perceived Ottoman misrule. Erdogan nor Russian President tants forced out of Benghazi and mans, and probably the Americans, agreement was considered a formal Turkish forces would be unwel- want a confronta- Derna by Haftar, constitute the main although the latter’s prime interest request for such an intervention. come and resented as bitterly as tion between the two sides. They force fighting the LNA. They could is getting the Russians out of Libya. Contrary to speculation that Rus- would Italian troops. As a result, managed to avoid that in Syria and, continue to fight, although there are There seems little prospect of those sia could agree to Turkish deploy- the GNA might see itself accused of following a phone conversation reports of contingency plans being efforts succeeding, however. ment in favour of the GNA, there treachery by Libyans for delivering December 17, both men agreed to drawn up for defence of their city were clear signs of disagreement the country to Turkey and Erdog- meeting in January in Turkey for should they be forced to retreat. Michel Cousins is a contributor to between Moscow and Ankara over an’s neo-Ottoman agenda, which further talks. Against the dangerously escalat- The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. unveils new cabinet amid Jerusalem issue complicates protests, royal family infighting Palestinian elections

“Game over,” tweeted @Mar- waiti government resigned over an The Arab Weekly staff ing the Israeli position “means, in The Arab Weekly staff sana2011, sharing a picture of both alleged clash between members of practice, that this decree may never the resigning prime minister and the government and after lawmak- be issued.” Hamas officials said it was London Ghanem. ers filed no-confidence motions London possible to overcome the Israeli rejec- Ghanem kept his position and against two ministers, including the tion. fter allegations of corrup- said Kuwaiti Emir Sabah al-Ahmad interior minister. he question of East Jerusalem However, the Palestinian Authority tion and infighting within al-Jaber al-Sabah informed him he On November 16, local media has become an obstacle that insists that Jerusalemites vote in the the royal family, the Ku- had no intention to dissolve par- said the ruling family was expect- threatens efforts to enable city’s post offices, as was the case in A waiti government unveiled liament, a common occurrence in ed to meet to contain the dispute T Palestinians to vote in the previous elections. a new cabinet to address issues that Kuwaiti politics that is usually pre- between resigned Prime Minister Palestinian territories. The Palestinian Authority directly sparked anti-corruption protests ceded by a call from parliamentar- Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Sabah, This reality became more evident addressed Israel, the United Nations, and caused the resignation of gov- ians to interrogate about corruption caretaker Defence Minister Sheikh after Palestinian Authority (PA) Presi- the European Union and other coun- ernment officials. allegations. Nasser Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah dent conditioned tries to allow having elections in Jeru- Kuwait revealed the members of “According to what I was told by and caretaker Interior Minister the first Palestinian general elections salem, as in the West Bank and Gaza cabinet to be led by Prime Minister his highness the emir, I do not think Sheikh Khaled al-Jarrah al-Sabah. in 13 years on Israel allowing residents Strip. Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Hamad there are any plans to dissolve the Matters escalated when, in a of East Jerusalem to participate in the The overwhelming majority of Pal- al-Sabah. The government said it National Assembly at the current statement on the army’s Twitter ac- vote. estinians in East Jerusalem cannot hoped the latest reshuffle will end time,” Ghanem was quoted as say- count November 16, Sheikh Nasser, “If Jerusalem residents can’t vote vote in national elections in Israel be- a turbulent period that started with ing by the state news agency Kuna the eldest son of Sheikh Sabah, in the heart of the city where they cause Israeli law only permits citizens anti-graft demonstrations in No- on November 14. said he discovered embezzlements live, there will not be elections,” Ab- to cast ballots. Palestinians in East vember. of approximately $790 million bas said December 17. “We are very Jerusalem largely do not hold citizen- Kuwaiti demonstrators gathered from the Kuwaiti Army fund when interested in having elections but not ship but rather permanent residency. outside parliament in early Novem- The government said it Sheikh Khaled was the minister of at any price.” Israel forbids any official activity in ber to protest against graft. They hoped the latest defence from 2013-16. Abbas, who heads the Fatah party, Jerusalem by the Palestinian Author- were galvanised by statements in reshuffle will end a Sheikh Nasser also claimed he said in September he would issue a ity, saying it breaches interim peace parliament by pro-government turbulent period that asked the prime minister to act decree for national elections but gave deals with the Palestinians. Speaker Marzouq al-Ghanem, who started with anti-graft against the alleged embezzlements, no date. An Israeli official said Israel was said corruption allegations in Ku- demonstrations in which he said were “the main rea- The rival Hamas movement sup- aware of the Palestinians’ request but wait were greatly exaggerated and November. son for the government’s resigna- ported the move while PA officials re- “has not yet taken a position on it.” said there had been attempts to tion.” quested Israel permit polling stations Palestinians seek East Jerusalem show that Kuwait was “the capital of “The issue is larger than ques- Agence France-Presse reported in East Jerusalem, as the Israelis had as the capital of a state they want to the corruption world and that all Ku- tion [of ministers]… The problem that Sheikh Nasser was seeking in the 2006 parliamentary election establish in the West Bank and Gaza waitis are involved in corruption,” with the cabinet team is its lack of the prosecution of his predecessor and a presidential vote a year earlier. Strip. Agence France-Presse reported. coherence,” Ghanem said in a video along with five other top Defence However, recent statements by Ab- Speaking at the Doha Forum in Kuwaitis then gathered in front of carried by the privately owned Al- Ministry officials over the alleged bas appear aimed mainly at Hamas, Qatar December 15, senior Palestin- the parliament building, calling on Qabas. embezzlement. which is pressing the Palestinian ian official Saeb Erekat said an Israeli legislative and executive leaders to It was followed by what is con- The Kuwaiti Justice Ministry im- president for the decree for the elec- refusal to allow voting in East Jerusa- step down. sidered a rare occurrence in local posed an order banning local media tions regardless of Israel’s position on lem “would be a major problem” and “Resign! Resign, Marzouq. The politics when Kuwait’s defence and from reporting on the embezzle- allowing voting in Jerusalem. could stop the vote from taking place Kuwaiti people don’t want you!” pro- interior ministers clashed publicly ment case. It said the trial would be Hamas Political Bureau Member entirely. testers chanted. over allegations of embezzlement. closed and that no information re- Moussa Abu Marzook said Abbas’s de- The cabinet resigned November 14. The dispute came after the Ku- lated to it should be circulated. cision to postpone the decree pend- (With news agencies.) 6 December 22, 2019 Opinion

Editorial Looking back at 2019 and ahead to 2020

s 2019 ends, the looks to the coming year with hope and wariness. This one was a year of largely de-escalated but even more compli- cated wars. ASyria remains a major flashpoint despite progress by the Syrian regime’s Russia-backed soldiers, who recaptured lost territory. The armed intervention of so many regional and global powers, including Russia, the United States, Turkey, Iran and Israel, and the entan- gled web of local allies and proxies leave the country in unpredictable strife. Next door, Iraq suffers from the chronic interference of Iran and its manipulation of local militias to settle scores with its traditional nemesis, the United States, through the target- ing of US troops based in Iraq. To the West, Libya is becoming another theatre for regional and international confron- tation as Turkey threatens to ratchet up its military support to the Muslim Brotherhood- supported Government of National Accord, fuelling concerns for all of Libya’s neighbours. In the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs, political scientist Robert Malley said a combina- tion of self-restraint and wariness about the © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly risks of a wider conflict has kept the situation relatively under control. “Yet,” he said, “the conditions for an all-out war in the Middle East are riper than at any time in recent memory.” Choosing common sense in Lebanon This year, the United States continued to disengage from the Middle East while Russia stepped in. A few weeks before the first votes Khairallah Khairallah are cast in its 2020 presidential campaign, no American presidential candidate is likely to As we wait for an answer, one that is already known is, barring a advocate for renewed military engagement. A report by the Watson Institute of International miracle, Beirut seems a forlorn city, an inconsolable, dying city. and Public Affairs at Brown University stated that US military involvement in Afghanistan, wo months have gone nese who will choose to migrate in a base for the Houthis in or Iraq, Syria and Pakistan “cost American by since the beginning droves to Western countries, where a refuge for all representatives of taxpayers $6.4 trillion” since it began in 2001. of the popular revolt some of them will be welcome. the Iran-backed sectarian militias Such figures will loom large on the campaign against the “Hezbollah The option of the Gulf countries that are working against certain Gulf trail. Era” in Lebanon, an era is shrinking rapidly because of the countries? Declining official casualty tolls cannot hide that started in late 2016 stalemate gripping those countries’ Will Lebanon choose common the miserable plight of the millions of refugees Twith the forced acceptance of the economies that makes it difficult sense and prudence or will it choose and displaced persons spread across the region. presidential settlement and there are for them to absorb more Lebanese, to remain in limbo as a country that Terrorism remains a threat to the world and quite a few phenomena happening regardless of their sects and orienta- does not know where its interest lies? the Arab region. In Syria and Iraq, the Islamic in Beirut that require a closer look. tions. It is well known that Lebanese This is a fundamental question that State (ISIS) has been defeated as a territorial Hezbollah’s era dragged the coun- expatriates in Gulf countries are has become urgent, especially when entity and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, try into bankruptcy and none of the appreciated for their skills and pro- none of the political parties is willing killed but the danger of ISIS and other jihadist excuses referring to events from fessionalism in certain sectors. to save Lebanon from its economic organisations lurks in the shadows. Next year the past three decades diminish If there is a lesson to be drawn crisis without imposing specific and could see ISIS move into other areas of North everyone’s responsibility. There are from the events of recent years well-known conditions. Africa and the Middle East and expand its many positive and negative things in Lebanon, it would be that the This is not the time for theorising operations in sub-Saharan countries. The that have occurred in the 30 years Christian Lebanese are not going and bringing up unrealistic options flailing French-led effort in the Sahel is reason to be able to restore their rights — if to worry. since the Taif Agreement. Normal such as opening up to China. The lat- The risks of conflict are made greater by Iran’s life had returned to Beirut, whose indeed there are any rights to be re- ter does not need anyone’s advice to brinksmanship, which continues to test the centre was rebuilt. Roads connect- stored — by going through the chan- look to Lebanon if it had a real inter- patience of its neighbours. Turkey’s muscle- ing Lebanon’s various regions were nel of Hezbollah and its weapons. est in investing in it. flexing strategy is adding to the tensions. In laid out and, until 1996, electricity The Free Patriotic Movement What is the use of talking about both countries, foreign adventures can barely was readily available. must know that Iran’s agenda in developing industry or agriculture? conceal their domestic political pressures. After 1992, Beirut reincarnated Lebanon does not coincide with its Before uttering such nonsense, it In Iran, 2019 has been a year of mass protests the culture of life and of unifying own agenda and aspirations. In the seems more urgent to preserve what against rising prices and falling standards of Lebanese from all regions, sects and Iranian agenda, priorities and cir- remains of Lebanon. One of the most living. Intensified US sanctions took their toll social classes. It happened despite cumstances vary from time to time important things left for Lebanon on Iran’s economy, as did Tehran’s squandering the existence of demolishing forces, but Lebanon’s Christians represent is its banking system. With tourism of its oil revenues on its militant designs which resumed their activities after only a minor detail in a game whose gone, banking is the backbone of the abroad. Despite internet censorship, the world the assassination of Rafik Hariri on framework is much broader than economy. saw the magnitude of bloodshed caused by the February 14, 2005. Some say this Lebanon. Lebanon’s banking system used to government’s repression. started even before then, during the It is a shame that Lebanon’s senior be supported by Lebanese and Arab In Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s era of Emile Lahoud. In any case, officials lack common sense. The funds. Changing the nature of the case, June elections demonstrated the ruling these demolishing forces worked problem is that the absence of com- popular revolution that the country Justice and Development Party’s shrinking tirelessly to reach the present situ- mon sense will bring hunger to the has been witnessing for two months support base. By the end of the year, the ation in which Beirut has become a Lebanese as private establishments from a peaceful revolution to a vio- Turkish president’s authoritarian reflexes were dying city. collapse one after the other and lent one will not do it a bit of good. increasingly challenged, not just by opposition Perhaps the first phenomenon unemployment soars. Were it not for It’s true that the widespread sympathisers but also by former supporters. that must be stopped is senior of- a lack of common sense, Lebanon revolution has taken a violent bend. Former Prime Minister and Erdogan associate ficials’ denial of the dangers of the would have a government of special- There are well-known groups that Ahmet Davutoglu announced his own party, the economic and financial crisis. It is a ists, backed by parties that can mobi- have sparked violence between the Future Party, to counter the Turkish president’s policies. Former Finance Minister Ali Babacan crisis threatening the very existence lise people behind the government. protesters and security forces and this is to introduce his own splinter party in the of Lebanon and yet the country’s Those parties know that the country has resulted in injuries and damage to coming months. officials act as if there is nothing is much more important than hav- property in the centre of Beirut, which It was a year of protests across the region. wrong with the backbone of the ing a share in the new government, reflects the extent of the hidden Whether in Sudan, Algeria, Iraq or Lebanon, country’s economy and its lifeline, regardless of what the United States hatred for the city and for the culture 2019 will be remembered as the year when namely its banking system. wants or does not want. of life. Such acts will not move things youthful populations rose up against corrup- For the first time in Lebanon’s America has a powerful and lethal forward as much as they represent an tion, unemployment and unfair and inefficient century-old short history, citizens weapon called the dollar. Lebanon attempt to deny Lebanon its rightful systems of government made worse in some have been denied access to their cannot fight a war with America. and vital rights and benefits. cases by foreign interference. money in banks and prevented from The United States, which can de- When all is said and done, and Two leadership transitions, in Sudan and making overseas transfers. Worse, stroy the Lebanese banking system since Hezbollah is afraid of losing its Algeria, followed the protests. There is no clear the country’s biggest trading estab- in an instant, does not want to hear grip over Lebanon, will it allow the outcome of the Lebanese and Iraqi protest lishments will soon stop all activi- of a Lebanese government in which formation of a reasonable Lebanese movements. The street movement has brought ties because they will no longer be the parties, including Hezbollah, are government that will be acceptable to the surface resentment of Iranian encroach- able to pay for imports with foreign represented. to the international community and ment and the intrinsic unfairness of the currencies. Those parties can be present Arab countries? Then again, perhaps sectarian systems in place. Much will depend More unemployment is inevitable through personalities affiliated with Hezbollah’s sole interest is in defend- on the resilience of the ruling systems and their but here we are in the middle of a them in one way or another but not ing Iran’s interests without giving ability to accommodate real change. dispute over the shape and compo- through people who have a clear consideration to those of Lebanon Much will depend, as well, on the capacity of sition of the new government, one desire to confirm that Lebanon has and the Lebanese, including the Shia leaderless movements to translate their sweep- that is supposed to include qualified become dependent on the Iranian community. ing demands into actionable reform agendas. specialists and technicians who axis. As we wait for an answer, one that Despite the turmoil and the violence, there is have in-depth knowledge of the is- Above all, no Arab country willing is already known is, barring a miracle, hope for political systems to keep pace with the sues they will be dealing with. to help Lebanon, if a “respectable” Beirut seems a forlorn city, an incon- high degree of educational and social attain- ment achieved in many parts of the Arab world. More unemployment will lead to government is formed, would solable, dying city. The new year does not have to repeat previous further social unrest and more emi- accept the survival of this Arab setbacks. gration for those who can afford it. country as a mere “arena” for Iran. Khairallah Khairallah is a Lebanese It will be mostly the Christian Leba- Is it reasonable for Lebanon to be writer. December 22, 2019 7 Opinion

The Turkish decade that will live in infamy Published by Al Arab Stephen Starr Publishing House Though there are signs that a critical mass may be fed up with the president’s ways, the battle for the future of Turkey has yet to begin. Publisher and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD n 2010, Turkey was tional songs, banned in their one of the most widespread of events outside Turkey’s con- regarded by some as an ex- home country, performed in human-rights crackdowns the trol — the war in Syria and con- Editor-in-Chief emplary case of economic public for the first time. Syr- world has seen in recent years, sequent refugee crisis and the and internal stability, hav- ian intellectuals gathered in with hundreds of thousands broader, global move away from Oussama Romdhani ing weathered the global teahouses giddily imagining of suspected opponents of the emerging markets by investors.

financial crash better than a democratic future for their government detained, many They wouldn’t be wrong. Managing Editor Imost other countries. The homeland. without trial. In truth, however, these are were set up for a defining dec- On the economy front, Today, Turkey’s economy is minor factors: Syrian refugees, Iman Zayat ade as it approached its cente- Turkey has undergone enor- flagging. With Erdogan alone in fact, fuelled major economic Deputy Managing Editor nary as a modern state in 2023. mous change with the building at the helm and with no one to growth and development in A nascent peace process with of billions of dollars’ worth of stop him driving the country south-eastern Turkey and in and Online Editor Kurdish militants was taking infrastructure projects. The into the ground from his $615 poorer parts of Istanbul. It was Mamoon Alabbasi shape and Kurdish civilians Justice and Development Party, million, 1,100-room palace in Erdogan’s constant meddling in enjoyed an unprecedented which has ruled throughout the Ankara, its international isola- the country’s monetary policies level of rights with the lifting of decade, is a building party; its tion looks set to continue. In- that saw the lira lose most of its Senior Editor restrictions on broadcasting and mantra: construct new facilities credibly, GDP per capita stands value against major currencies John Hendel minority languages, including for the masses — trains, hous- at less than $9,000, around (when I moved to Turkey in May the opening of a state Kurdish ing, bridges, airports and high- $1,000 less than in 2010 and a 2013, the lira stood at 2.2 to the channel — TRT Ses — in 2009. ways — and come election time staggering $3,500 less than in US dollar. Today, it’s 5.88 and Chief Copy Editor Istanbul’s Taksim Square your seat in parliament will be 2013, the year before Erdogan falling). Richard Pretorius was opened for the first time in all but assured. took over as president. In 2010, Erdogan’s leading decades to May Day demonstra- However, the latter half of That means that, despite the allies were Ahmet Davutoglu, Copy Editors tors and trade unionists in 2010. the decade has seen Turkey widespread availability of easy Abdullah Gul and the other Stephen Quillen “Constitutional amendments slide into an autocratic credit, Turks today are visionaries that transformed Kyle Arensdorf granted the right of collective grip from which there more than one-quarter Turkish politics. Today, as the bargaining for public-sector em- appears no way out. less well off than they president continues his hell- ployees,” said Amnesty Interna- Tragically miscued were the year before bent mission to retain power, Gulf Section Editor tional, describing it as a major policies in Syria, includ- Erdogan took complete they are his rivals — enemies, Mohammed Alkhereiji shift towards workers’ rights. ing allowing rebels, who control of Turkish poli- even. These days Syrians in Is- A decade ago, Ankara was by 2015 morphed into tics. That’s a staggering tanbul hide from police charged Society and Travel beginning to enjoy the keen ties fundamentalist extrem- indictment of the presi- with relocating them to the Sections Editor it had worked hard to develop ists, over the southern dent and the government’s Turkish hinterland. Samar Kadi failures. On the street, with a host of important re- border, contributed to In 2017, academic Howard Eis- gional and international actors a series of Islamic people are frus- senstat wrote how “One of the Senior Correspondents (excluding Israel, following a State attacks in trated and jaded, core arguments that President deadly raid on a Turkish-domi- Istanbul, Ankara in part because Erdogan has offered for expand- Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) nated flotilla to Gaza). and elsewhere of the constant ing his power through consti- Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) In 2009, Turkey signed an that year. There rhetoric of tutional reforms is that further agreement to open diplomatic has been a conspiracy that centralisation of authority will Regular Columnists relations with Armenia. With return of the dominates increase stability. Yet the experi- Rashmee Roshan Lall Abdullah Gul as president and decades- newspapers, ence of the past ten years has Claude Salhani Recep Tayyip Erdogan as prime long war TV and radio demonstrated that the opposite minister backed by a fleet of with Kurd- but mostly is true.” Yavuz Baydar keen, ideological local politi- ish sepa- because Though there are signs that a cians spread across Anatolia, ratists that there’s less critical mass may be fed up with Correspondents the future looked good. continues and money to go the president’s ways, the battle By 2013, Istanbul and other which has taken around. for the future of Turkey has yet Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) cities in Turkey served as sanc- thousands of Many observ- to begin and the ten years to Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) tuaries for thousands of Syrians civilian lives in ers say the come look very grim. fleeing political and other forms south-eastern troubles Roua Khlifi (Tunis) of persecution. Turkey. engulf- Stephen Starr is the author of On the streets of Istanbul’s The failed ing the “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to Chief Designer Beyoglu district, Syrian Kurds coup in July country the Uprising” and has lived in Marwen el-Hmedi openly wept at hearing tradi- 2016 triggered are because Syria and Turkey since 2007. Designers Ibrahim Ben Bechir It’s going to be a year of ‘conscious uncoupling’ Hanen Jebali

Rashmee Roshan Lall All bets are off on what lies ahead in 2020 but it probably won’t be a sober Contact editor at: and well-judged 3M strategy on the part of the West. [email protected]

s 2019 hastens to an cordingly, Trump’s much-hyped into the area. powers. Instead, he argues, the end, its defining pat- grand bargain seems destined to Even as he acknowledged West should adopt a “3M” strategy: terns are clear. The remain a ghostly, unseen pres- concerns that Turkey was “mov- minimalist, multilateralist and year was marked by ence, at least for the remainder of ing out of the NATO orbit” and Machiavellian. Al Arab Publishing House two rancorous rela- this presidential term. towards Russia and engaging in There is something to be said for Quadrant Building tionships: between Trump all but acknowledged actions “to the detriment of the Mahbubani’s 3M strategy. 177-179 Hammersmith Road ChinaA and the United States and this in his address December 7 to alliance,” Esper laid out six broad Minimalism, which is a call to London W6 8BS between Turkey and NATO. Then the right-leaning Israeli American objectives for the US military in do less — intervention, fighting there was United States and the Council. Seeming to blame the the region that served to empha- unnecessary wars — will not only sole superpower’s shape-shifting intractable nature of the conflict sise the narrow prism of America’s help regions such as MENA where view of its role in the Middle East rather than his administration’s perceived interest. the West has traditionally meddled Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 and North Africa. maladroit diplomacy and partisan “The stability of the Middle East to little purpose and great harm but Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 Taken together, the world goes attitude towards one party to the remains important to our nation’s would also prevent the draining of into the 2020s in an extraordinary dispute, Trump said he had been security,” he said. “As such, we spirits and resources from Western flux, engaged in something that told that achieving peace between will continue to calibrate all of our societies. actress Gwyneth Paltrow and the Israelis and the Palestinians actions to deter conflict, to avoid As for multilateralism, it ties in US Publisher: singer Chris Martin once said of would be the hardest deal of all. unintended escalation and to en- with a Machiavellian strategy of the state of their disintegrating “If Jared Kushner can’t do it, it able our partners to defend them- self-preservation. With most of the The Arab Weekly USA LLC. marriage: conscious uncoupling. can’t be done,” he declared. selves against regional aggressors. world population — 88% — living [email protected] In the new year, US policy In doing so, we will preserve the What might this mean in real outside the West, it is wise to prop [email protected] terms for the region? on Syria is also likely to remain hard-won gains of the past and up global multilateral institutions, In 2020, the final year of US reflexive and short-term. On De- ensure the security of the United Mahbubani argues. Tel: 248-679-6624 President Donald Trump’s first cember 11, US Defence Secretary States and our vital interests.” It all makes good sense but term, it’s clear that his promised Mark Esper told a congressional In the circumstances, it’s fair the year is closing out with a key Deal of the Century is off the committee that the reduced US to ask if the new year will see the multilateral institution — the World immediate agenda. Though the contingent in Syria had a cir- United States all but washing its Trade Organisation — crippled by White House said the long-de- cumscribed focus: “The mission hands off the MENA region. If so, the Trump administration. On De- layed peace plan for the Israeli- remains the enduring defeat of what might this mean? cember 11, the WTO’s trade court Palestinian conflict is complete [the Islamic State] ISIS,” he said, There are parts of the US ap- became ineffective because Wash- Subscription & Advertising: and had promised its release after adding “We could consider rede- proach that accord with a theory ington has repeatedly blocked [email protected] Israeli elections in September, ploying… when we feel confident put forward by Singaporean dip- judicial appointments since 2017. Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 that schedule has been disrupted that local security and police lomat Kishore Mahbubani, whose All bets are off on what lies by Israel’s domestic political situ- forces are capable of handling any academic research re-envisions ahead in 2020 but it probably won’t ation. type of resurgence.” global power dynamics. Mah- be a sober and well-judged 3M Mohamed Al Mufti bubani’s latest book bears a Israel’s third election in less Two months after Trump’s strategy on the part of the West. Marketing & Advertising decision to pull troops out of somewhat provocative title, “Has than a year looms in March. By Manager then, the US presidential season northern Syria in a tacit go-ahead the West lost it?” In it, he argues Rashmee Roshan Lall is a will be roaring ahead and the to Turkey’s subsequent offensive, that the West, which is to say the columnist for The Arab Weekly. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 focus will narrow to Trump’s Esper admitted that the United US-led community of Western Her blog can be found at www.alarab.co.uk re-election campaign through States “expected turmoil” as countries, must not “lose it” in www.rashmee.com and she is Election Day, November 3. Ac- Turkey moved Syrian refugees the impending clash with rising on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 December 22, 2019 News & Analysis Iraq Elusive consensus on prime minister makes early Iraqi elections more likely

Azhar Al-Rubaie

Baghdad

he constitutional deadline to name a prime minister- designate in Iraq passed De- T cember 19 with parliament unable to agree on a candidate. Lawmakers continued to debate who should replace Adel Abdul- Mahdi, who resigned November 29 but remains on as caretaker prime minister. Anti-government protests that began October 1 and forced Abdul- Mahdi to step down also continued, despite a death toll of more than 450. Demonstrators rejected the people touted in the media as pos- sible prime minister candidates, saying they belong to the corrupt ruling class the protesters are try- ing to depose. Protesters have called for radical changes in Iraq’s political makeup, which include ending corruption and the muhasasa system. “Here in Tahrir Square, we do not support a particular candidate,” said Korea Reah, an activist in Baghdad. “Iraqi President has the constitutional right to choose a candidate from the Tahrir (Reuters) streets but he does not have the will Elusive wishes. An Iraqi demonstrator looks at a wall of wishes in Baghdad, December 20. to do so. He is under the influence of the biggest blocs in parliament.” not frighten us, our peaceful revo- al-Bahadly. “All the current candi- who is willing to rebuild Iraq not political class to nominate a right- She added: “We will keep protest- lution is continuing and will keep dates come from the same corrupt destroy it, one who gives life, not eous candidate while it finds itself ing until the government chooses protesting till all our demands are parties, the government insists to kills people just as they demand accused in tonnes of corruption the one who answers to us not to met,” said Baghdad resident Taw- nominate old faces and, in turn, we their right, one who thinks about files. If the candidate comes from them, the one who meets our ex- feeq Ihsan. will reject them all. the needs of people not favours his the people, it means government of- pectations and aspirations. I hope “They (government and militias) “In Tahrir Square, we suggested a own benefits.” ficials will face trials in the courts international community pressures want to test our patience. They couple of names to the government In the absence of a consensus and be sentenced for the massacres the government to help the Iraqi think we will get bored. The fact to take into consideration but we candidate, early elections may be against protesters.” people decide their future, away is we are happy to stay for a longer were given the deaf ear. The govern- the only option left to end the cri- Abed said: “I think Adel Abdul- from any external influence.” time on the ground until we get jus- ment fears choosing a patriotic per- sis. Mahdi will stay as caretaker prime Massive intimidation and arrest- tice for the blood of the martyrs as son for the prime minister post. It “There is a big gap between the minister for longer but that in- ing campaigns were carried out by well as get rid of all those who are fears to pick someone from outside protesters and the government. The creases the anger of the people and the authorities — as well as militias corrupt.” the muhasasa system. Thus, we will protesters announced the features means demonstrations will con- — against demonstrators to subdue If parliament does agree on a can- never give up or return home until of the new prime minister: he must tinue.” the leaderless protests. The where- didate for prime minister soon, that we get someone who deserves to be be independent, secure justice for abouts of many activists and pro- nominee is unlikely to be accepted Iraq’s prime minister.” the killed protesters and carry out Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance testers arrested are unknown. by protesters. He added: “The government has early elections under community journalist based in Iraq. His writing “Both of them, the government “The government does not have a to go. All the political parties must supervision,” said political analyst focuses on politics, health, society, and Iran-backed militias, could not suitable candidate to replace Abdul- realise we do not want them any- Ghanim Abed. wars and human rights. Follow him shake a hair in our body, they could Mahdi, “said Basra resident Alaa more. We want a prime minister “It is not in favour of current on Twitter: @AzherRubaie. Unanswered Iranian provocations in Iraq undermine US influence

in Iraq or elsewhere in large part A month later, IRGC-backed because the mullahs called Uncle Shia jihadists launched a rocket Tallha Sam’s bluff each time they were attack on a compound housing Abdulrazaq threatened and got away with it. ExxonMobil employees near Basra In the past five weeks, Iran- and the oil company evacuated its backed Iraqi Shia militant outfits staff again. have launched ten attacks on Iran also shot down an American US bases and interests, utilising drone over international waters he United States react- longer-range 122mm rockets. last summer in the Arabian Gulf. ed angrily to news that Outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister US President Donald Trump made Iran’s Islamic Revolu- Adel Abdul-Mahdi received a a whole song and dance in the tionary Guard Corps phone call December 16 from US US media and on Twitter about proxies in Iraq had, yet Defence Secretary Mark Esper, how he had been “cocked and again, targeted bases who called on the caretaker Iraqi loaded,” ready to retaliate against Thousing US troops and military prime minister to do more to three Iranian military targets equipment. defend American interests in Iraq. but changed his mind at the last The Trump administration Esper’s call followed comments second because of the potential for issued a stark warning to the he made to US lawmakers that Tehran to lose 150 soldiers. Iranians of a “decisive” retaliation “Iran should not mistake the Such drama hardly holds water, should Tehran’s actions bring United States’ restraint for an though, particularly when one harm to Washington’s interests in unwillingness to respond with considers that the United States Iraq. decisive military force.” That, could have struck any number It is, however, extremely however, is indeed the “mistake” of IRGC targets, a formation that A nation taken hostage. An Iraqi man carries a placard depicting unlikely that the United States will that Iran has been making and is Washington considers a foreign protesters who died during anti-government demonstrations, do anything to bring Iran to heel continuing to make without ever terrorist organisation. at a rally near the local government headquarters in Basra, (AFP) being corrected. In sum, and taken with the December 13. After all, the spate of rocket December 17 announcement that The veritable attacks is hardly the first the State Department will decrease The United States is absolutely American allies in the Middle East such instance of an Islamic its footprint in Iraq 28%, it would not interested in any kind of who may begin to view this as a mountain of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps appear that Iran was right to call military confrontation with further manifestation of American provocations that (IRGC) proxy targeting US military the United States’ bluff. Iran. The veritable mountain of indifference to the threats they deployments and other interests. The US drawdown in Iraq is Iranian provocations that have face daily because of Iran’s have gone Earlier this year, the US State indicative of its wider policy of gone unanswered by the United belligerence. unanswered by the Department evacuated non- disengagement. Iran hardly needs States has allowed the mullahs to It is time for the Americans to United States has emergency staff members from to attack US interests in Iraq at conclude that the White House is put up or shut up when it comes its embassy in Baghdad, citing all. If it simply bides its time, it is all bark and no bite. to Iran. allowed the mullahs security concerns and threats from likely that Washington will all but This is catastrophic for US to conclude that the Iran-linked groups. This caused US totally withdraw without much influence not only in Iraq, Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher oil giant ExxonMobil to remove its need for further encouragement of which is arguably already lost to at the University of Exeter’s White House is all staff in May as a “precautionary the terrorist variety that Tehran is Iran, but it will reduce regional Strategy and Security Institute in bark and no bite. measure.” so well known for. confidence among traditional England. December 22, 2019 9 News & Analysis Lebanon

Viewpoint Political impasse endangers Lebanon’s economy and security

and other food services, with commodities diminishing from the supermarket shelves. Rami Rayess A recent news report in Beirut mentioned that, in the new year, banks will fully refrain olitical developments from supplying customers with in Lebanon are com- cash dollars, which will make ing fast. What seems to the situation even worse. The be possible at the start Lebanese Banks Association of one week becomes denied the report. impossible or irrelevant The most dangerous aspect is Pbefore the end of it. The impasse the security threat that entails fear the country is passing through of descending into chaos. With deepens the crisis and increases mounting stress among political the dangers at political, economic parties’ members, the equation of and security levels. a street confronting another street At the political level, Lebanese seems to be the alternative amid President Michel Aoun postponed the absence of political solutions. the binding parliamentary Thugs have “invaded” the consultations to nominate a streets of Beirut and other towns A prompt answer. Lebanese protesters shout slogans outside parliament to denounce the nomination new prime minister-designate. in southern Lebanon, demolishing of Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab in Beirut, December 19. (AFP) The process should have protesters’ tents. There have happened weeks ago. It is true been clashes not far from having the constitution does not impose a confessional dimension that a specific time frame for the usually aggravates the situation. president, yet the spirit of the constitution considers that this is Naming of prime a process that should be done soon after a cabinet resignation — which A recent news report happened in this case on October in Beirut mentioned 29. that, in the new year, It is the duty of the prime minister-designate minister-designate to coordinate banks will fully with the president and the refrain from parliamentary blocs to create a new cabinet and not the duty supplying customers of the president to assign, with cash dollars, adds to Lebanon unrest beforehand, the identity or size which will make the of the cabinet. Aoun has set a Simon Speakman Cordall she said. ficials, including parliament precedent in this regard that situation even worse. Diab’s backing by the Shia Hez- Speaker Nabih Berry and reli- undermines the constitution and bollah and Amal, as well as their gious symbols such as Imam Ali, sets a new approach for presidents The Lebanese street is severely Tunis largest Christian ally, the FPM, attempted to break through a in the future. divided and this complicates could prove problematic. His lack security cordon around a make- After a delay, the consultations the capacity of the state to hold ith unrest continuing of support from Lebanon’s main shift campsite erected by anti- took place and a Hezbollah-backed accused people accountable, which across Lebanon, the Sunni bloc is unlikely to help him government protesters. Security prime minister was chosen. Hassan increases anger in the street and so naming of not widely form a new government or secure services used tear gas to push Diab, a former education minister on. The vicious circle that Lebanon W known former minis- the Western backing that Leba- them back. and academician received 69 votes has entered has severe negative ter Hassan Diab as prime minis- non desperately needs. The latest violence came after from the 128 parliament members, results at the political, economic ter-designate could open a new The severity of Lebanon’s fi- an especially brutal mid-Decem- a very slim winning-margin and security levels. chapter in the fraught relations nancial circumstances is difficult ber weekend in which 40 people supported basically by the March With the failure of the political between the government and the to overstate. The confessional were injured after police inter- 8 alliance including Hezbollah, the forces to agree on a new cabinet, country’s increasingly agitated system of government, in which vened to separate Amal and Hez- Amal Movement and the Aoun’s capable of earning the adequate population. roles and ministries are allo- bollah supporters from attack- Free Patriotic Movement. political, popular and international Anti-government demonstra- cated by sect, has become over- ing protesters in central Beirut. Supporters of caretaker Prime support simultaneously, the tors poured into central Beirut, whelmed by corruption and little Violence, however, escalated and Minsiter Saad Hariri took to the situation will deteriorate. protesting Diab being chosen for of the country’s infrastructure is police resorted to rubber bullets, streets and demanded that Hariri Lebanon’s coming weeks are the post soon after the decision functional. tear gas and water cannons in an not step down and allow someone difficult indeed. was announced. Across Lebanon, The Lebanese pound has fallen attempt to regain control of Bei- who does not have strong support It seems that the new prime the Daily Star reported, roads to one-third of its official rate rut’s city centre. from his Sunni constituency to minister will not win sufficient were blocked as protesters re- while banks impose tight capi- “From the start, there has al- replace him. Hariri asked his international support, which is jected the former education min- tal controls. Across Lebanon, ways been a concern that the supporters to withdraw to preserve deeply needed for Lebanon to ister’s selection. companies are cutting jobs and protests could either turn sectar- security and stability. confront the economic issues that For several weeks, protesters squeezing salaries. ian, violent or both,” said Mouna At the economic level, the hinder its entire system. This will called for replacing Lebanon’s Yacoubian, a senior adviser at the scarcity of the US dollar is the talk complicate the situation amid fears United States Institute of Peace. of the town. It has affected all that the new government would be confessional system of govern- Anti-government ment with a technocratic one. “Indeed, the fact that the pro- sectors. Hospitals raised concern a confrontation cabinet with local This would preclude parties rep- demonstrators poured tests have still remained rela- that essential medical material and opponents and the international resenting the countries’ various into central Beirut, tively peaceful is remarkable in tools are being missed because community, an accusation Diab sects from government. protesting Diab being and of itself given Lebanon’s his- of the incapacity of transferring ruled out after his designation. While those demands were chosen for the post soon tory of civil war and conflict,” dollars to international suppliers. echoed among many senior poli- after the decision was Yacoubian said. “The current Factories are having a hard time Rami Rayess is a Lebanese writer. ticians, the Free Patriotic Move- announced. unrest is largely the result of sec- importing raw material. The same Follow him on Twitter: ment (FPM), the Amal Movement tarian actors instigating greater problems apply to agriculture @RamiRayess. and Iran-backed Hezbollah were “A government with a Hezbol- violence by attempting to inject insistent that any government lah-backed prime minister would a sectarian element into the pro- include a mix of technocrats and be even less likely to secure sup- tests and by resorting to more politicians. port from the Gulf countries… aggressive tactics, e.g. throwing Popular anger was initially trig- and might also potentially reduce stones, in confrontation with se- gered by a series of small events, the chances of Lebanon getting curity forces.” including a proposed tax on the support from the [International Little of the violence appears to WhatsApp messaging service, it Monetary Fund] if the US raises be directed by any of the parties’ “morphed quickly into protesters concerns,” Jason Tuvey, a senior leadership. While Amal and Hez- demanding a drastic overhaul of emerging markets economist at bollah were initially critical of the the country’s political system,” Capital Economics, told Reuters. anti-government protests, their said Emily Hawthorne, a MENA The increasingly sectarian na- position has become more ac- analyst at risk consultancy Strat- ture of the violence in the streets commodating, raising questions for. continues, something Diab’s ap- about the motivations behind the “That is much easier said than pointment is unlikely to ease. violence. done in Lebanon, where a com- On December 16, hundreds “What is more concerning is plicated confessional system of of men on motorbikes crowded the prospect that some of the governance in some ways pre- Beirut’s streets, carrying flags violence is being generated from dates even the modern country’s of Shia groups as they chanted, the grass roots and that party and founding and was reinforced after “Shia, Shia,” setting tyres on fire, religious leaders have less control the civil war’s end in 1990. The throwing stones at security forces over these elements,” Yacoubian entrenched system is trying to and setting cars ablaze, witnesses said. defend itself against political re- said. Caught into a vicious circle. Lebanese President Michel Aoun (L) forms that risk eroding their pow- The men, reportedly incensed Simon Speakman Cordall meets with caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri at the presidential er with sectarian constituencies,” by a video criticising Amal of- is a freelance writer. palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, December 19. (AFP) 10 December 22, 2019 News & Analysis Gulf Iran ties hinder Gulf normalisation with Syria

Sami Moubayed with not a single word said against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz. When Beirut asked about him at a news confer- ence, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid delegation of state-sanc- Muallem said Khashoggi’s death tioned Syrian journalists was of no interest to him. arrived in Riyadh in mid- “It seems that Syrian-Saudi A December, invited to a governmental relations are now meeting of the Arab Journalists moving forward,” said Mustapha Syndicate for the first time since al-Sayyed, a Syrian political com- bilateral relations between Syria mentator based in Dortmund, Ger- and Saudi Arabia were suspended many, aimed at curbing both Irani- in August 2011. an and Turkish influence in Syria. That coincided with reports that “Moscow is the main drive behind the Saudi Embassy in Damascus this re-engagement,” he said, add- and the offices of Saudi Airways ing that the Kremlin hopes to re- were being refurbished in prepara- duce Syria’s economic and military tion for reopening. dependence on Tehran. Just days earlier, the UAE charge The Russians had pushed for the d’affaires in Damascus was quot- reopening of the Syrian-Jordanian ed as saying that the United Arab border, giving Syrian products safe Emirates was looking forward to passage to the Arab Gulf and a life- a return of calm to Syria “under line for the cash-strapped Syrian the wise leadership of President economy. Bashar Assad.” After the United States an- That was shortly after Arab coun- nounced it was withdrawing troops tries issued back-to-back state- from Syria, Russia hoped that, by ments fiercely condemning the regaining oilfields from the Kurdish Turkish invasion of the north-east- fighters east of the Euphrates River, ern Syria that started October 9. the Syrian government would be- Gradual changes. UAE Charge d’Affaires Abdul-Hakim Naimi (C-R) cuts a cake with Syrian Deputy (AP) Earlier this year, a delegation of come less dependent on Iranian oil. Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad (C-L) marking the UAE National Day, in Damascus, December 2. Syrian lawyers was hosted in Am- That aspiration was interrupted by man, followed by a visit by Syrian US President Donald Trump’s last- The Saudis were left out of the ment” instead of “regime,” adding the two countries, in infrastruc- Parliament Speaker Hammouda al- minute decision to keep US troops Astana process, which monopo- that it was inconceivable for Arab ture, telecommunications, housing Sabbagh to the Jordanian capital. at the Syrian oilfields, ostensibly to lised Syrian affairs in the hands of countries to be excluded from the and agriculture. prevent an Islamic State comeback. Russia, Turkey and Iran. They were entire political process in Syria. Arab countries expressed will- Saudi officials believed they excluded from the recent UN-led One week later, a favourable in- ingness to restore Syria’s member- Mustapha al-Sayyed, could lure the Syrians away from constitutional talks that started in terview with the Syrian president ship in the Arab League and invite a Syrian political commentator Iran, repeating a strategy that Sau- Switzerland last October and from was run in the Kuwaiti-newspaper it to the 2019 Arab Summit in Tuni- “It seems that Syrian-Saudi di Crown Prince Mohammed had the Russia-approved Turkish safe al-Shahed, in which Assad praised sia but that did not happen because governmental relations are carried out — with limited success zone between Ras al-Ayn and Tal Kuwaiti Emir Sabah al-Ahmad of a veto from Qatar — still at dag- Abyad. al-Jaber al-Sabah. Weeks later, gers drawn with Damascus. now moving forward.” — in Iraq. Instead of trashing the post-Saddam leaders of Baghdad as Last year, Bahraini Foreign Min- then-Sudanese President Omar It was decided that Syria could agents of Iranian expansionism, he ister Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa al-Bashir travelled to Damascus, return to the league but only after The snail-paced Arab normali- reached out to them, one after an- took the initiative, warmly em- the first Arab head of state to visit it fulfilled two conditions: the im- sation with Syria began with the other, courting them with red car- bracing his Syrian counterpart at the Syrian capital since 2011. Many plementation of UN Security Coun- reopening of the UAE Embassy in pets in Riyadh and Jeddah. the UN General Assembly. The speculated he was carrying a good- cil Resolution 2254, which calls for December 2018, followed by those The Saudi crown prince signalled footage — not surprisingly — was will message from Saudi Arabia, to the start of a political process, and of and Bahrain. The Syrians prominent Iraqi allies of Tehran, aired exclusively on the Saudi Al which he was allied in the war on to distance itself from Iran. While reciprocated, muting their criti- such as Muqtada al-Sadr, Ammar Arabiya channel and not on Syrian Yemen. the first has sluggishly kicked off cism of Saudi Arabia in state-run al-Hakim and then-Prime Minister state-run television. He then ap- Gulf countries reopened their with the constitutional talks in Oc- media outlets, focusing only on the Haider al-Abadi, with the sole aim peared on Al Arabiya saying: “We embassies but did not provide di- tober, Syrian-Iranian relations re- Turkish threat, which was music to of creating a threshold in Iraqi poli- deal with the Syrian government rect financial aid or investment to main fully intact. the ears of leaders in Riyadh and tics and not leaving the Iraqi stage and not with those trying to bring Syria, fearing US sanctions. That Abu Dhabi. wide open to Iranian meddling. He it down.” prompted Assad to travel to Tehran Sami Moubayed is a Syrian Syria notably stayed out of the Ja- seemed convinced that he could do The Bahraini foreign minister in February 2019, triggering a series historian and author of “Under the mal Khashoggi controversy in 2018, the same with Damascus. noticeably used the word “govern- of economic agreements between Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015).

Viewpoint Arab Gulf countries seek resolution, not conflict in standoff with Iran

Sabahat Khan Arab Gulf countries, led by Saudi Gulf, acknowledge potentially Arabia, have been supportive of the catastrophic consequences of a American “maximum pressure” military conflict involving Iran. campaign against Tehran owing That could endanger not only the edia reports suggest to Iran’s regional activities. Earlier rapid economic growth and progress backdoor dialogue this year, oil tankers were attacked of recent years but jeopardise has taken place in or near UAE waters and attacks ambitious development plans for between Saudi and on Saudi oil facilities in September those ahead. Iranian officials rattled markets. The incidents were As Gargash stressed, escalation with intended to ease both pinned on Iran. Iran “at this point serves no one” Mtensions between the regional rivals. The Saudi-led coalition’s but there is potentially “a path to a The reports said the two sides intervention in Yemen against deal with Iran that all parties might discussed confidence-building Houthi rebels, who are supported soon be ready to embark on” that measures designed to de-escalate by Tehran, has been characterised ultimately creates “a new, more tensions and discussed the as a proxy war between the two stable regional order in which all possibility of a non-aggression sides. Iran is seen to be behind countries will be able to thrive.” agreement. the advancing missile and drone For Iran, an international deal could There is little information to capabilities of the rebels that pave the road ahead for its re-entry confirm either the reported talks threaten Saudi Arabia and the into the global economy, creating between Saudi Arabia and Iran or wider region, including the highly opportunities and prosperity for possible areas of discussion that strategic Bab el Mandeb Strait. its people at exactly the moment may have taken place. However, the In earlier years, Iran’s role in Syria, A note of optimism. Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio (R) they are most needed. For the Arab possibility of diplomatic activity Iraq and Lebanon also challenged meets with Saudi Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Gulf, an international agreement (AP) occurring is a genuine plausibility, the regional order and its stability al-Jubeir during the Rome Med 2019, December 6. with Iran would enable it to focus even if unlikely. with Tehran’s utilisation of armed on growth plans in a regional Iran has been facing growing groups as proxies. their territorial waters and their Iran’s growing challenges is by environment that is stable and economic pressures the past 18 Saudi Arabia is closely aligned with economy.” transforming its regional behaviour. secure rather than one hostage to months with crippling US sanctions the United States and its Western At the summit’s opening address, At the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate armed proxies. and, in November, some of the partners in calling for Iran to change Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al in November, UAE Minister of State Decision-makers in Tehran will need largest nationwide protests since its behaviour, which not only Saud emphasised the importance for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash to address the highly contentious Iran’s revolution in 1979 erupted endangers regional stability but calls of the GCC securing itself against said the region’s crises need to be Yemen situation by supporting against deteriorating economic into question co-existence itself. missile attacks from hostile forces brought to negotiated ends that are activation of a peace process conditions. At the Mediterranean Dialogues and he criticised Iran’s “aggressive “sincere and sustainable.” starting with the implementation Pakistan and, to a lesser extent, Iraq Conference in Rome, Saudi Minister policies” that “undermine the Calling on Iran to join international of the Stockholm Agreement, have been trying to diffuse tensions of State for Foreign Affairs Adel stability of neighbouring countries.” talks and allay concerns over ending direct or indirect attacks on between Saudi Arabia and Iran as al-Jubeir struck a note of optimism Earlier, King Salman called on its nuclear programme, ballistic Arab Gulf economic and political well as more widely between the suggesting there “is a possibility to Tehran to abandon its “expansionist missiles and regional interference, interests and by disengaging from United States and Iran in the hope calm down the situation that will be ideology” that has harmed its own Gargash warned that the the regional activities seen by Saudi that direct talks can be started. followed by a settlement in Yemen.” people and long-term interests. international community “should Arabia and its Arab Gulf partners as Despite having constructive ties The recent Gulf Cooperation Council Reiterating that Riyadh does not not fall for the false choice between aggressive and destabilising. on both sides, Pakistan and Iraq (GCC) summit in Riyadh stressed a seek war with Iran, King Salman said war on the one hand or a flawed have limited sway over either Saudi need among members to increase Iran’s leaders should understand [Iran nuclear agreement] on the Sabahat Khan maintains a Arabia or Iran and their efforts are military and security co-operation that an international position has other.” cross-disciplinary focus in better characterised as facilitation to counter Iran’s growing threat formed against its strategic thinking Saudi and Emirati perspectives, international security, defence rather than mediation. to “the lands of the GCC states, and the only way to overcome like those of the wider Arab policy and strategic issues. December 22, 2019 11 Viewpoint Syria

Washington continues to get it wrong in Syria

As part of Washington’s focus on oil, there are reports that a team from Aramco recently Geoffrey Aronson inspected the al-Omar oilfields in Deir ez-Zor with a view towards expanding production — a key part of Washington’s effort to en- able the SDF to maintain an exist- here isn’t much that ence independent of Damascus. the United States gets Esper’s self-serving justifica- right about Syria. The tion of the SDF’s oil trade with the die was cast when regime would be fine if the United US President Barack States was playing chess with Obama’s ill-considered itself. In Syria, however, Wash- Tdeclaration in the summer of 2011 ington is confronted by players that “Assad must go” proved to be far more adept than itself in the an aspiration rather than a policy. contest for influence and control. Washington continues to get it Far more important than cash wrong in Syria. for the SDF is the punishing grip To take one recent example, of the strategic vice that threatens comments by US Secretary of to squeeze the life out of the SDF. Defence Mark Esper at the Halifax The happy talk from Washington International Security Forum in ignores this unpleasant reality. November acknowledged what No matter how full the SDF’s everyone has known all along — treasury, its shrinking fiefdom and that the Syrian Democratic Forces its eroding ability to act indepen- (SDF) is selling oil to Damascus dently from Damascus and Mos- and Turkey. cow are direct consequences of As a consequence, Washing- the American decision in October, ton, whose new mission in Syria a decision that gave new life to is controlling oil at the regime’s the halting reconciliation between expense, finds itself in business the government and the SDF. with the very regime it is presum- The Assad government is ably determined to undermine! reclaiming space throughout the Zigzags. US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper (L) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Go figure. SDF’s contracting domain, send- Milley testify to a US House committee hearing on US policy in Syria, December 11, on Capitol Hill in Esper contended that the fact ing its teachers, administrators Washington. (AP) that oil-hungry Damascus and An- and taxmen along with its soldiers kara are the SDF’s main customers to reclaim territory formerly un- is less important than the revenue der SDF-US command. did cause the Kurds to “vibrate,” may gain quiet satisfaction that istan trap of the 1970s and 1980s, earned by these transactions. Syria’s intelligence chief, Ali Russian Foreign Minister Sergei the Americans are, in effect, sell- overextending itself in a battle Flush with oil receipts, the SDF, Mamlouk, is trying to assuage the Lavrov acknowledged during a ing oil to the regime but he has ac- that, in no small part thanks to so Washington says, would be fears of the Sunni tribes in the recent visit to Rome. knowledged that those opposing Washington, it cannot win. better able to prevent the govern- Jazirah region of eastern Syria “Before that, I thought [the the regime “must be persuaded, However, since 2011, the ment from reasserting sovereignty about their rapprochement with Kurds] understood our arguments one way or another and particu- United States has been serially over the dwindling areas under the regime. that only a direct agreement with larly through dialogue, that it is in wrong about almost everything SDF control. On December 5, Mamlouk met Syria’s official authorities can all our interests in Syria that they of consequence in Syria, in- Indeed, the SDF has a cash flow with tribal leaders in Qamishli, reliably solve all the problems embrace the homeland and join cluding Russia’s role. Indeed, problem. Its ability to fund opera- where he called on their “chil- the Kurds are facing there,” he the Syrian state’s efforts to liber- Esper in testimony before the tions through taxation and fees dren” to abandon the SDF. Mam- explained. ate all its territories. At that point, US Congress professed himself is squeezed by its loss of territory louk’s dialogue with the tribes is “The latest zigzags of US policy it’s only natural that there will less concerned about Russia’s and border-crossing points. an old story, as old as the conflict should convince them that there be no prospect for an American no-win presence in Syria than its regarding Damascus’s efforts over is no other way but to come to an presence.” growing relations with Egypt and the decades to exert control over agreement within a united Syrian Washington is all but a bystand- Saudi Arabia. the countryside. The tribes’ fears state and not to bet on those who er in those efforts. Raqqa was These developments are the are strikingly pedestrian and thus want to dismember Syria and light once the centrepiece of US efforts consequence of the collapse of not too difficult to assuage. They the fuse under the bomb that the to stabilise a front against the the security structure built by the Washington, whose don’t want their boys in prison for Kurdish issue has been for many regime. Recently Russian forces United States in league with the new mission in Syria fighting with the SDF nor do they countries in the region.” entered the city giving out aid SDF. US President Donald Trump want them forced into the Syrian The SDF’s careful, halting but packages. Russians are standing broke the back of this structure is controlling oil at the Army. ever-expanding security, intel- up new local forces in Hasakah in October but Washington still regime’s expense, While the trajectory favours ligence and, yes, commercial province and elsewhere to supple- says that all is well with its Syrian Damascus, the restoration of state relations with Damascus are oc- ment both the national army and allies. However, those who insist finds itself in business authority throughout the country curring in a far broader and more the SDF, part of a broader effort to the sun is shining when it is rain- with the very regime is nevertheless a process of starts menacing (from the standpoint of refashion a new status quo after ing are bound to get wet. it is presumably and stops. US policy) context than the rev- the US retreat. The US decision to concentrate enue gained from a few thousand There are those in Washington Geoffrey Aronson is a non- determined to its deployment on securing Syria’s barrels of oil. who see, and indeed hope, that resident scholar at the Middle undermine! Go figure. oilfields east of the Euphrates Syrian President Bashar Assad Russia is walking into the Afghan- East Institute in Washington. US ‘Caesar’ bill on Syria war crimes welcome but not enough

from the Syrian government who the realities of Syria’s situation “And [the regime] will always “But anything that will make smuggled from the country tens and fail to serve Syrians who need blame it on the sanctions and, these atrocities less likely in fu- of thousands of photographs of assistance. therefore, I think it has a poten- ture is to be applauded. It is very James Snell the dead and evidence of crimes “Anything that is meant to curb tial to be perceived inside Syria important that the US government committed in the regime’s prison what the regime is doing, I think is as something that is not directed puts down a marker that, in future, system whose extremities chal- fine,” said Bente Scheller, direc- towards the right people.” dictators, despots and rogue states lenge description. tor of the Middle East office of the International sanctions and who commit atrocities will be Caesar was quoted lamenting the Heinrich Boell Foundation. counterterror provisions have severely punished, and this may go fter many years and lack of action the world had taken In comparison with sanctions made delivering aid to those in some way to condemning chemical several failed at- to sanction the regime and prevent placed on the regime by the need of it in Syria more difficult. weapons and hospital attacks to tempts, the US Senate its worst crimes. In this light, the European Union, the US act “also Stories of aid convoys being pre- history.” passed legislation US legislation is a small measure to addresses Iran and Russia,” which vented from unloading because of Activism of the sort that pro- containing tougher counteract that trend but a notable the EU sanctions failed to do, she regime pressure, which the regime duced the bill assumes that contin- sanctions on the victory for the Syrian diaspora noted. justifies by protesting against sanc- ued global attention and continued regimeA of Syrian President Bashar and the community of Syrians in The indirect sanctions proposed tions, abound. So, too, do stories legal sanctions would prevent Assad, its foreign backers and cor- America, whose activism has borne by the bill, however, “potentially… of necessities, such as soap, being crimes against humanity and suf- porations that profit from Syria’s fruit after years of failure by US hit civilians and this act is very denied to insurgent-held areas be- fering from fading from view. war. legislators. strongly focused on withhold- cause they contain trace amounts Sanctions alone, however, are lit- The bill is named after “Caesar,” The bill is attached to the Na- ing anything from Syria and that of chemicals, like nitrates, that tle bar to those left, untroubled, in the assumed name of a defector tional Defence Authorisation Act means civilians maybe will be hit could be used to make bombs. power after nearly a decade of war. for the coming year, effectively hard by the sanctions — and that in The bare facts of the conflict “Though I expect these groups guaranteeing it being enacted. a situation in which the economy remain unaddressed by sanctions. will probably only hold back on Its advocates suggest the bill in- anyway is ailing, in which they “Assad and his allies have been these terrors if military strikes are Activism of the sort dicates the United States’ willing- have a financial crisis due to the committing crimes against human- also added as an action, along with that produced the bill ness to deter and punish those who situation in Lebanon… [and where] ity for the last eight years. The use sanctions to these types of heinous would support or profit financially more than 30 million people in of chemical weapons and attacking crimes,” de Bretton-Gordon said. assumes that from crimes of the Assad regime Syria are in need of international hospitals — both war crimes — have For many who have seen the continued global and demonstrates Washington’s aid [including] in government now become common place in Syr- results of a decade of brutal attention would attention on a conflict many Syr- areas,” Scheller said. ia. Nothing is going to bring back civil conflict largely unaffected by ians feared the United States had, The regime cannot be trusted to the innocent dead or cure those outside sanction, every piece of prevent crimes perhaps gladly, forgotten. deliver aid even if it is given the millions with horrific injuries,” foreign legislation represents effort against humanity and Critics disapprove of the tools funds to do so. “However the sanc- said Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, applied too weakly and too late to employed to advance the measure. tions for [the regime]… will make the co-director of the medical NGO save many lives. suffering from fading More pertinently, many say any sure less will be coming into Syria,” Doctors Under Fire and a frequent from view. law of this sort will fail to address she said. visitor to Syria. James Snell is a British journalist. 12 December 22, 2019 News & Analysis Egypt

Egypt watches cautiously as Hamas edges closer towards regional rivals

Amr Emam alert as Hamas gets close to Turkey and other countries with the same policy.” Cairo Hamas is more ideologically in line with Turkey and Qatar, both he Egyptian government staunch sponsors of political Islam watched intently as Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Chairman Ismail Haniyeh In April 2017, Hamas issued a po- T recently met with Turkish litical document in which it declared President Recep Tayyip Erdogan disengagement from the Muslim and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Brotherhood. That allowed for close Hamad al-Thani. security cooperation between Cairo The meetings were part of an ex- and Gaza, which helped Egypt in tended foreign tour by Haniyeh, his its fight against ISIS in Sinai. It also first since taking over the Hamas po- helped Cairo play a greater role in litburo in May 2017. unifying Gaza’s factions in prepara- In a meeting December 14 in Is- tion for inter-Palestinian reconcilia- tanbul with Erdogan, Haniyeh dis- tion. cussed humanitarian conditions in The fear in Cairo is that Hamas the Gaza Strip, Jerusalem, al-Aqsa drifting away from Cairo and towards Mosque, Turkish support for the Pal- Istanbul and Doha, which could en- estinians and efforts Hamas makes tice Hamas to play a negative role in towards Palestinian elections, Ha- Sinai security and perhaps cause an mas said in a statement. ISIS revival and weaken Egyptian Haniyeh and his delegation dis- counterterrorism efforts. cussed the same issues with Sheikh A deterioration of the security sit- Tamim in Doha two days later. uation in Sinai, analysts said, would There was concern in Egypt that a serve Turkey and Qatar on several coming together of Hamas and two counts. The shift would keep Egypt of Egypt’s most avowed regional busy and give Turkey and Qatar an rivals would have negative implica- opportunity to expand their influ- tions for Egyptian national security ence in Libya. and regional standing. Egypt has been trying to con- tain Hamas for a long time, hav- Hamas’s turn to Egypt’s ing convinced the movement — an regional rivals would ideological offshoot of the Muslim open the door for many Special season. Pope Tawadros II of Alexandria leads the Coptic Orthodox Christmas Eve mass at the Brotherhood, an Islamist movement scenarios — all of them Cathedral of the Nativity of Christ in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital, January 6, 2019. (AP) designated “terrorist” by Cairo, to bad for Cairo, analysts turn from a direct enemy to a shy said. collaborator. Many extremists who fight the Turkey signed a security docu- Fears of terrorism trigger Egyptian Army in Sinai entered ment with Libya’s Islamist-leaning Egypt from Gaza through smuggling Government of National Accord, tunnels operated by Hamas. which controls Tripoli, along with “There has been a direct link be- another document defining mari- tight security in Egypt as tween Gaza and terrorist activity in time borders. The security docu- Sinai,” said Egyptian security expert ment, Erdogan said, gives Turkey Gamal Eddine Mazloum. “Now, the the right to send troops to Libya if Gaza-ruling faction comes together the Tripoli government requests. with two countries that have always On December 17, Egyptian Presi- Christians prepare for holiday worked to undermine Egypt both in- dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said Libya ternally and externally.” is a national security issue for Egypt Cairo contained Hamas by offer- and that countries that think they Ahmed Megahid minority in the past five years Cairo, killing nine people and, in ing aid, including fuel for Gaza’s can control the North African coun- seemed aimed at causing panic December 2016, an ISIS extrem- electricity plants, and mediating try are mistaken. among Christians and at embar- ist set off a bomb in a church in between the Palestinian movement Sisi had met with Palestinian Au- Cairo rassing Egyptian President Abdel central Cairo, killing 25 people, and Israel. Egypt recently worked on thority President Mahmoud Abbas Fattah al-Sisi, who claims respon- mostly women and children. a possible long-term truce between in Sharm el-Sheikh two days earlier hristians in Egypt are pre- sibility for the protection of the “The terrorist threat is still Gaza and Tel Aviv. when he called for building trust be- paring for Christmas amid Christians. alive and very strongly,” said re- Haniyeh travelled to Istanbul via tween Palestinian factions within an tight security. The Christian minority has tired police General Fouad Allam. Cairo, the only transit point to the integrated pursuit and away from C The Christian minor- been at the heart of support to “Egypt is an important country in outside world for Hamas leaders be- temporary solutions, the Egyptian ity, around 10% of the Egyptian Sisi since he became president the region and the terrorists and cause of the blockade imposed on presidency said in a statement. population, marks the religious in mid-2014. Sisi’s crackdown on their state sponsors know that the enclave by Israel since 2007. Egypt is a long-time sponsor of occasion while being more em- Islamist extremism has had the hitting at its Christian minority Hamas’s turn to Egypt’s regional the Palestinian issue but Turkey’s powered following internal de- support of Egypt’s Christians. will produce the desired destabi- rivals would open the door for many and Qatar’s scrambling for influence velopments, including the licens- lising effects.” scenarios — all of them bad for Cairo, in the Palestinian territories would ing of hundreds of churches, a This is probably why the au- analysts said. complicate matters and stoke ten- milestone on Egypt’s road to Christmas comes this year thorities are taking special meas- By shifting loyalties, Hamas gives sions among the Palestinians. granting the Christian minority as the spectre of terrorism ures to prepare for Christmas this Qatar and Turkey leverage over “There is a lot of regional jostling its rights. seems more distant after year. Tens of thousands of police, Gaza. Egypt partly owes its regional over influence in the Palestinian ter- “The failure of authorities to security agencies including secret policemen, have importance to its ability to influence ritories,” said Nadia Helmy, a profes- license churches was a problem- dismantled many armed been deployed near churches. Palestinians in Gaza and the occu- sor of political science at Beni Suef atic issue for the Christians in offshoots of the Muslim Some streets where churches pied West Bank. University in Egypt. “Each of the the past,” said Christian activist Brotherhood and a cell of are located have been blocked to “The clear thing is that Egypt countries jockeying in this regard Ehab Ramzi. “Those living [far] the Islamic State. traffic and pedestrians passing or could not fully contain Hamas,” works to serve its own interests, not away from churches had to pray entering the streets are searched said Hazem Abu Shanab, a member those of the Palestinians.” at home but they were often pre- Sisi was the first Egyptian and their baggage checked with of the Revolutionary Council of the vented from doing this by their president to attend Christian cel- electronic detectors to ensure occupied West Bank-ruling Fatah Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly Muslim neighbours and the au- ebrations, including Christmas that they do not contain weap- Movement. “It needs to be on the contributor in Cairo. thorities.” services. He has stressed that ons. All churches are provided Egypt’s Christians are mostly Christians are an inseparable part with metal detectors. Coptic Orthodox who celebrate of the Egyptian social fabric. This year, the Coptic Orthodox Christmas on January 7. In the Each of the 14 cities to be built Church is enlisting the services month leading to Christmas, they in the Egyptian desert to increase of thousands of scouts who re- abstain from eating beef, poultry habitable space is to include a ceived security training in guard- and dairy products. The celebra- major church along with a ma- ing churches and ensuring that tion starts January 6 with well- jor mosque. Last January, Sisi those entering them are there attended services at churches opened the Middle East’s largest for worship practices only. The across the country. church in Egypt’s new capital be- scouts search and check identity Christmas comes this year as ing constructed between Cairo cards of those entering churches. the spectre of terrorism seems and Suez. “All these measures give us more distant after security agen- This personal sponsorship by confidence that this year will cies dismantled many armed the president is giving Christians be free from problems,” said Fa- offshoots of the Muslim Broth- a feeling of confidence but wari- ther Polis Halim, the spokesman erhood and a cell of the Islamic ness of risk endures. There is fear of the Coptic Orthodox Church. State (ISIS). Egypt paid dearly among Christians, especially giv- “The Christians also have confi- in terms of security personnel en that many attacks were aimed dence that there is a government casualties to reduce the terrorist at churches and Christian gather- in Egypt now that is very keen on threat. Nonetheless, extremists, ings ahead of or during Christmas protecting them.” especially in Sinai, are capable of celebrations. Shifting loyalties. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) staging attacks. In December 2017, terrorists Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian and Hamas Chairman Ismail Haniyeh during their meeting in Attacks against the Christian attacked a church in southern reporter in Cairo. Istanbul, December 14. (AFP) December 22, 2019 13 Viewpoint

Changing the relationship with should be part of Tebboune’s quest for ‘New Algeria’

that pushed matters with Algeria While the Bouteflika regime he signalled to the outside world between Algeria and Morocco re- to a dead end but it is to the credit advanced several arguments for not more than to Algeria that “the quires giving up the old rhetoric. of Moroccan King Mohammed VI opening borders between the two relationship between Algeria and Morocco cannot expect a major to have made repeated offers to countries, Moroccans considered Morocco is greater than this issue shift in Algeria’s official position, Mohamad Kawas Algeria to return to dialogue that the core of the dilemma relates to (support for the Polisario),” con- which has been in place since could result in full normalisation the question of Western Sahara. Ra- sidering that Algeria, Tunisia and 1975. It would be unfair for Rabat in the two countries’ relations. bat considers it Moroccan territory Libya are going through signifi- to rush the new Algerian president Tebboune spoke of a new Alge- while Algeria supports the Polisario cant changes that could revitalise for a radically new philosophy of t will be a pointed and inter- ria and King Mohammed VI found Front. the Maghreb. his country’s foreign policy before esting exercise to monitor the moment opportune in his con- A remarkable development oc- Tebboune and Saadani are two testing the man’s capacity to wage the performance of Algeria’s gratulatory message to reiterate curred two months ago from within figures from the same regime in an internal battle that meets the new president, Abdelmadjid his offer “for starting a new page the Algerian political class. Ammar Algeria and therefore the “prob- aspirations of the street. Tebboune, who won an elec- in the relations between the two Saadani, the former secretary- lem and causes” mentioned by The “New Algeria” for which tion that stirred controversy neighbouring countries.” general of the National Liberation Tebboune do not hide an internal Tebboune is advocating requires Iover its merit. Tebboune had shown open- Front Party, acknowledged that debate (expressed by Saadani) in that he performs in a way that While the new president makes ness for dialogue with Morocco “the Sahara is Moroccan,” that the corridors of power in Algeria. persuades people at home as well promising statements to reassure on two occasions. As a candidate, “Algeria had paid a high price for its Some within the circle of power as the world’s capitals, especially the popular movement and calm Tebboune called on Rabat to support for the Polisario” and that may come out and regard Saada- Morocco, that the country is shift- its passions, it remains to be seen apologise to Algeria for accusing “the closed borders between the ni’s views as a personal opinion ing to accommodate the effects of whether Tebboune can take the it of having been involved in the two countries must be reopened.” that does not bind the state but the popular earthquake that hit traditional “deep state” head-on bombing of the Atlas-Asni Hotel Saadani is part of the main ruling this would not change the fact the whole political class. and change Algeria’s hostile for- in Marrakech in 1994. After the circle in Algeria and is described that this unprecedented acknowl- In his December 19 speech, eign policy towards Morocco. election, he declared that certain as being close to Algerian military edgement of Moroccan identity Tebboune said: “The question of Algeria may have valid and circumstances had led to the clos- Chief-of Staff General Ahmed of Western Sahara broke down a the Moroccan Sahara is a matter objective reasons to be angry at ing of the border between Algeria Gaid Saleh. Even if Saadani made taboo and gives Tebboune new of decolonisation and it is an issue Morocco, reasons that may be and Morocco and that “the prob- his declarations in Paris, it can be ground to build on. in the hands of the United Na- related to its internal affairs that lem will disappear once its causes assumed he was not just “making Algeria absolves itself from tions and the African Union and it make it reluctant to explore solu- are removed.” conversation.” any interference in the affairs of should remain far from disturbing tions with its neighbour. It wasn’t expected of the new There is persistent talk about Morocco, considering that it has relations with our brothers in the Morocco may also have reasons Algerian president to announce Saadani’s imminent return to nothing to do with the matter of Maghreb.” a radical reversal in his country’s assume an important position in Al- the dispute between Rabat and This is an ambiguous position stance towards Morocco. How- geria, which raises more questions the Polisario Front. It has argued that might be described as both ever, since Algeria has witnessed about the nature of his Western that it is just a member, with Mau- firm and flexible. The big ques- Morocco cannot a real revolution that led to the re- Sahara position and about whether ritania, of the monitoring team in tion, however, is this: Isn’t chang- expect a major shift in moval of the Abdelaziz Bouteflika his declarations were a message any talks related to the Western ing Algeria’s relationship with regime, Morocco became hungry from within the Algerian regime Sahara conflict, while UN Security Morocco the strongest message of Algeria’s official for a shift in Algerian politics to major world capitals, especially Council resolutions, especially change for people at home before position, which has that would do away with the old, Paris. last October’s Resolution 2494, those outside? sterile rhetoric that character- The interview with Saadani was consider Algeria as involved in been in place since ised Algeria’s relationship with published October 17, before the the conflict and its solution. So Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese 1975. Morocco. Algerian elections. At the time, the way to overcome the dispute writer. Tunisia wraps up 2019 with no clear path forward

age 83 in Saudi Arabia after a long illness. Ben Ali, who led Tunisia for 23 years before being ousted in the Iman Zayat revolution, announced he hoped to return to Tunisia just months before his death. The question of his return ine years after Tuni- sparked debate between those who sia’s 2011 uprising, wanted to forgive an old and frail the country is at a man and those who insisted he be critical juncture. held to account. The latter camp With parliament prevailed and Ben Ali’s body was plagued by divisions, buried in the Muslim holy city of Nthe Islamist Medina in Saudi Arabia. controlling political affairs and a For critics of the two former president seemingly in self-im- presidents, their passing constitut- posed isolation, the path forward ed an irreversible departure from is murky. the past and its old school of poli- This comes after an eventful tics. For others, the death of Caid year that reshaped Tunisia’s politi- Essebsi, in particular, meant the cal scene and created new chal- loss of a veteran politician unique- lenges for the young democracy. ly able to manage the country’s The first major setback was June divergent factions and prevent a 27 when Tunis was hit with two dangerous political vacuum from terror attacks at the time Tunisian taking shape. President was Such fears soon materialised. being rushed to hospital in critical Ennahda came out ahead in leg- condition. islative polls and an independent Rumours circulated that Caid former professor with no political Essebsi had died but it was later experience, Kais Saied, won presi- revealed that he had been “se- dential elections with Ennahda’s dated.” backing. The crisis renewed security Almost three months after the concerns in the country and raised elections, the future looks as Waiting for change. Tunisians queue outside a polling station during the first round of the questions about the line of succes- uncertain as ever. Political parties presidential election, last September. (AP) sion in the absence of an approved continue fighting, the designated constitutional court. prime minister has been strug- Caid Essebsi, 92, recovered gling to form a government and the people, with the aim of eventu- prospects of riots because of its some as a witch hunt for promi- from the June health issues but the concerns of the population go ally pushing for his decentralisa- economic and political crises that nent critics of Ennahda. died July 25. Parliament Speaker unheeded. tion project if state institutions only seem to be worsening. The In light of these controversies, Mohamed Ennaceur took over as The impasse has led many to collapse or find themselves under country’s economy, especially, is Tunisia, more than ever, needs interim president and presiden- question the intentions of En- siege by the mob. in dire shape. The state survives a constitutional court to ensure tial elections were moved from nahda and wonder if Saied was The suspicions grew after Saied’s on donations and loans, which the rule of law is followed and the November to September 15. too utopian to adequately address December 17 speech in Sidi Bouzid, are often misused, and purchas- country’s democratic principles Before parliamentary elections Tunisia’s complex problems. in which he accused politicians of ing power decreases as any wage upheld. October 6, the country was again Saied has also been criticised being involved in “plots and con- increase is quickly overtaken by However, it should be evident rocked by news of death. This time for isolating himself by directing spiracies that they end up blaming inflation. that no democracy is functional it was exiled former President Zine fiery rhetoric at some of Tunisia’s on him.” The judicial system, which is amid widespread impoverishment el-Abidine Ben Ali, who died at foreign partners in Europe and the He explained he was not inter- accused of being used as a tool of and inequity. Arab world. Some have gone so far ested in power or even holding political parties, has also resisted , increasingly as to describe him as another Mua- onto the presidency but only in calls for reform, causing many to disenchanted, need achievements, mmar Qaddafi, the long-time Liby- realising the Tunisian people’s lose trust in the institution. not promises. The fight against cor- Tunisian people, an leader, but in a country with no dreams of freedom and dignity. Media mogul and presidential ruption must become a priority for natural resources or wealth. Saied then spoke against the “en- candidate Nabil Karoui was ar- which the country’s leaders need increasingly Saied inflamed tensions at home emies of the revolution and the rested on years-old charges right to devise an effective strategy, with disenchanted, need by publicly criticising state institu- people hiding behind them,” before the presidential election. concrete actions. tions, such as customs authorities. calling on the crowd to resist Prominent media figure Sami Fehri achievements, not There is suspicion that Saied is “dark designs.” was also arrested. The two high- Iman Zayat is the Managing Editor promises. testing how far he can influence In 2020, Tunisia faces the profile arrests were criticised by of The Arab Weekly. 14 December 22, 2019 Spotlight Turkey-Libya Deal Fallout

Viewpoint Turkey’s dangerous game in the Eastern Mediterranean

explained. It claims “extensive maritime jurisdiction in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas” Francis Ghilès — large segments of the Eastern Mediterranean continental shelf for Turkey’s benefit to the exclu- rmed Turkish Bay- sion of its neighbours. raktar TB2 drones Turkey recently enlarged a landed in Northern military base in Qatar and one Cyprus as tensions in Somalia. In a show of growing rose over Turkey’s self-confidence, Turkish Presi- deal with Libya’s dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan inter- GovernmentA of National Ac- vened against the Syrian Kurds, cord that extended both of their to the fury of French President claims to the gas-rich Eastern Emmanuel Macron, who sup- Mediterranean. ports the LNA. A significant discovery of natu- Erdogan has neutralised US ral gas offshore confirmed the President Donald Trump, who economic potential but quickly has refused to bow to pressure spilled into the protracted from the US Congress to impose disputes surrounding Cyprus, sanctions on Ankara for the flout- Turkey and other EU countries ing of Iran sanctions and buying on several issues. the sophisticated S-400 Russian The Greek and Cypriot govern- missile defence system, despite ments see the memorandum of the fact that Turkey is a member understanding (MoU) as a chal- of NATO. Headlong into tension. A 2016 file picture shows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) and lenge to their exclusive economic Erdogan has taken advantage Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Cairo. (AFP) zones (EEZ). The Greeks argue of the disarray in Washington that the MoU and the subsequent to articulate a more independ- delineation of the economic ent foreign policy. His MoU with boundaries ignore the presence Tripoli was signed after his visit of the Greek island of Crete and to Washington and just before a its EEZ between Cyprus and NATO summit. Libyan diplomats in Turkey. Is Erdogan just putting down The MoU needs to be set in the markers before serious negotia- context of two other develop- tions take place to resolve the ments. Libyan civil war or just getting Since last April, the Libyan Na- carried away by hubris at a time Cairo break ranks with tional Army (LNA) has laid siege European Union has threatened to Tripoli but failed to take it. to impose sanctions on Turkey LNA Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar for the latter’s exploratory moves has the support of a motley crew in Cyprus waters? that includes Egypt and France This would not be the first time and more recently Russia, whose Ankara acted unilaterally and ag- Sarraj government gravated tensions in the region, 200-plus mercenaries give the LNA a significant advantage on leaving Brussels and Washington the ground. to pick up the pieces. A more as- Ahmed Fouad cember 14 on Facebook that it was struggle within the mission, with sertive policy plays well domesti- suspending operations because of most members loyal to “former cally and in the Turkish parlia- “security reasons.” ambassadors Darsi and Shuaib, Hubris can easily ment. Cairo Tunisian media reported that who were appointed by the gov- Erdogan uses his office as a Libyan diplomats had arrived by ernment of Abdullah al-Thani, breed miscalculation, bully pulpit. He has asked Rus- he legitimacy of Libya’s sea at Tunis, in preparation for affiliated to the Libyan (Tobruk- especially if Trump sian President Vladimir Putin to Tripoli-based Government transfer to Tripoli. This probably based) parliament and the LNA withdraw Russian troops sup- of National Accord is be- referenced the Egypt-based dip- before the formation of the GNA” changes tack. porting Haftar and warned the T ing tested after members lomats. The GNA denied that any and a second smaller faction that European Union it has no right of the country’s diplomatic staff diplomats had been expelled. is supportive of the GNA, includ- The MoU has complicated UN to declare its agreement with in Cairo reportedly broke with the ing Abdel Aziz. efforts to resolve Libya’s civil Libya unlawful. Turkish Foreign government. “Therefore, the embassy has war. Turkey is quite open in its Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu de- The diplomats, an official state- If confirmed, the more than one Facebook page, support for the Muslim Brother- clared, petulantly, that, though ment issued December 13 bearing defection would not each of them managed by a hood to which the Government no formal request for troops had the seal of the Libyan Embassy be the first to rattle group,” the employee said. of National Accord (GNA) leader been made by the GNA, “sending stated, said they were defecting the GNA. “The seals of the embassy are Fayez al-Sarraj is affiliated. troops is the easiest way.” from the Government of National carried by some loyal to the LNA Turkey has, for decades, had The question is whether we are Accord (GNA) and declared their This could lend credence to the and others loyal to the GNA. important economic interests in sliding into war without realis- loyalty to the rival Tobruk-based defection story because Egypt Therefore, the statement of defec- Libya, not least in the construc- ing? Macron’s remark that NATO parliament, which is allied with would likely be unwilling to ex- tion may not be accurate in saying tion sector. It has sold weapons was “brain dead” must be set in a the Libyan National Army (LNA). pel diplomats who had expressed that the entire diplomatic mission to the GNA — the maritime agree- Mediterranean context in which The diplomats said they parted loyalty to the LNA, which Cairo is had defected. However, in fact ment amounts to payback to NATO allies are working at cross ways with the GNA because they aligned with, to the GNA, which most diplomats at the embassy Ankara. It can thus hope to gain purposes, allowing the Russians disagreed with a maritime demar- could file criminal charges against split from the GNA,” he added. important contracts when the to play on their divisions. cation agreement the GNA signed them. Libyan Embassy officials in civil war ends and the recon- As for the gas reserves around with Turkey, which would grant If confirmed, the defection other missions have reportedly struction of Libya begins. Cyprus, not only will they take Ankara greater access to Mediter- would not be the first to rattle the defected. In August, Libyan Am- Turkey’s behaviour is closely a long time to develop but they ranean waters and is believed to GNA. bassador to the Central African linked to the division in Cyprus can hardly be said to contribute be unconstitutional. In April, media shared a state- Republic Hussein Mahmoud said between the southern interna- to Europe’s energy security. The The GNA denied that any of its ment bearing the seal of the Lib- he had defected from the GNA tionally recognised government world is awash with gas whose diplomats had defected and said yan Embassy in Cairo expressing and expressed the diplomatic mis- and the northern Turkish one, price is lower than it has been for the statement had been forged by support for the LNA’s advance to- sion’s support for the LNA’s de- the Turkish Republic of Northern years. The European Union does an unknown group that stormed wards Tripoli aimed at “eliminat- clared objective of rooting out ter- Cyprus (TRNC). not need more gas at present. the embassy and attempted to ex- ing terrorist militias.” rorism and militias in the capital. Ankara argues that the Greek Its outside supplies from Russia, tort its staff. In February 2018, Libyan dip- The Libyan Foreign Ministry said Cypriots should not proceed with Norway and Algeria are more The Arab Weekly spoke to wit- lomats in Cairo called for Libyan Mahmoud no longer represented exploration and possible export than sufficient. nesses and an embassy employee Ambassador to Egypt Mohamed Libya and that he defected after of gas without a buy-in from Erdogan’s more assertive present on the day of the alleged Abdel Aziz to be dismissed be- his request for another term was Turkish Cypriots. Ankara has policy in the Mediterranean has extortion who cast doubt on the cause they refused to work with rejected. used the TRNC to begin exploring many explanations. A combina- GNA’s account. any official assigned by the GNA, Former Egyptian Ambassador for oil and gas in Cypriot waters tion of economic interests and The witnesses, residents of which they accused of being affili- Mohamed Abdel Hamid said the while an anti-Turkish coalition strong desire to show the West buildings near the embassy in Za- ated with the Muslim Brotherhood defections would probably en- has formed that includes Greece, that Turkey is no longer the tra- malek district, said they did not and “terrorist organisations.” courage more missions to defect the Republic of Cyprus, Egypt, ditionally compliant ally needs to notice any absence of embassy se- The statement charged that Ab- from the GNA, especially as the Israel, Jordan and Italy. Coming be set in the ideological subtext curity forces or struggles between del Aziz had been managing the LNA continues its push to take under the umbrella of the East- of the Blue Homeland Doctrine. them or another group. embassy with non-official diplo- control of Tripoli. ern Mediterranean Gas Forum, It has worked well so far but hu- The embassy employee, who mats and employees, or others He said the United Nations and the partnership has the appear- bris can easily breed miscalcula- spoke on condition of anonym- who were suspended when for- foreign countries would most like- ance of being energy-related but tion, especially if Trump changes ity, said he noticed no abnormal mer ambassadors Saleh al-Darsi ly reconsider their recognition of its purpose is ultimately military tack. activity at the embassy while he and Tarek Shuaib served from the GNA if defections continued. and Turkey is excluded. was at work that day. He said he 2015-18. The broader context of Tur- Francis Ghilès is an associate believed diplomats had defected. The embassy source explained Ahmed Fouad is an Egyptian key’s “Mavi Yatan” or Blue fellow at the Barcelona Centre for The embassy announced on De- there had long been a power writer. Homeland deserves to be International Affairs. December 22, 2019 15 Viewpoint Palestine Israel

Will it be ‘three strikes, you’re out’ for Netanyahu?

ment, Gideon Saar, is challenging Netanyahu for leadership in a party primary December 26 and Saar has Gregory been picking up steam. Aftandilian On December 15, Saar received the endorsement of Haim Katz, the head of the Likud Central Commit- tee, as well as several current and n American popular sports cul- former Knesset members of the ture, when a batter in baseball party. gets three strikes at the plate, Netanyahu still has powerful sup- the umpire shouts: “You’re port from the Likud rank and file, out!” so he may be able to withstand the Israel’s embattled Prime challenge from Saar. Nonetheless, IMinister Binyamin Netanyahu is the internal battle in Likud sug- getting one more chance at the plate gests that Netanyahu’s fortunes are but momentum is growing among slipping. Saar has made the point the Israeli electorate for him to be that, with Netanyahu indicted by thrown out. the judiciary on corruption charges, Given that the latest two Israeli he is jeopardising Likud’s chances in elections, within a few months, the March election. produced no governing coalition, Even if he should win the internal new general elections are scheduled Likud contest, Netanyahu has no for March 2, 2020. new ideas to present to the Israeli This means Israeli voters will electorate except for the fact that he go to the polls for the third time is touting his ability to possibly per- within the course of a year. Reports suade US President Donald Trump to indicate they are exasperated by endorse Israeli annexation of parts the governing class not being able of the West Bank and perhaps nego- to form a new government but Ne- tiate a US-Israeli security treaty. tanyahu may be taking more of the However, such a treaty is not a blame for the impasse than other top issue for Israeli voters because The clock is ticking. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu checks the time during a meeting of politicians. Washington has demonstrated its the right-wing bloc at the Knesset in Jerusalem, last November . (AFP) One Israeli poll suggests that security commitments to Israel and Netanyahu’s Likud party has slipped a treaty might tie Israel’s hands in 4 percentage points in recent weeks some respects. Annexation of parts ing a significant segment of Israeli the game. ians. Gantz supports some of the against its Blue and White alliance of the West Bank is seen by moder- voters, say Netanyahu’s chief goal is Netanyahu continues to rail hard-line measures of Likud, such rival, headed by former military ate and left-wing Israelis as unnec- to stay in power for as long as possi- against the media and the judici- as Israel retaining the Jordan Valley, Chief-of-Staff Benny Gantz, and essarily provocative. ble so he can cut a deal for immu- ary. Sounding much like Trump, but he seems more sympathetic to many Likudniks are not happy. One Trump has already done Netan- nity from criminal charges. Former Netanyahu is trying to portray his the problems facing them and is on prominent Likud member of parlia- yahu several favours — recognising US peace process diplomat Aaron legal troubles as part of a left-wing record stating: “We do not want to Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and David Miller, now at the Carnegie conspiracy. However, for all of the rule the Palestinians.” This opens moving the US Embassy to that city, Endowment for International Peace, rough and tumble of Israeli politics, the possibility of a renewed peace If the polls hold up, it recognising Israeli sovereignty over has written that Netanyahu staying there is respect among the elector- process. the Golan Heights and declaring on as prime minister “puts him in ate for the judiciary, so outside of It is looking like Netanyahu is at is possible that Gantz explicitly that settlements in the the best possible position to avoid a his core supporters, Netanyahu may the plate with two strikes — using could wind up as West Bank are not illegal. There is conviction and maybe cut a deal.” not get much traction by his rants. the baseball metaphor once again — not much more Trump can do. This is one reason Gantz was If the polls hold up, it is possible may be a swing, a miss and an out. prime minister in a Trump seems to be backing off reluctant to enter into a coalition that Gantz could wind up as prime coalition government from his friendship with Netanya- government with Likud with Netan- minister in a coalition government Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer that would relegate hu, perhaps not wanting to hurt his yahu at the helm. Gantz is signalling that would relegate Likud to a junior in the Pardee School of Global chances with a future Israeli prime to Likud — and the Israeli electorate partner, with or without Netan- Studies at Boston University and a Likud to a junior minister. as a whole — that he is willing to yahu. Such a government would former US State Department Mid- partner. Many political observers, includ- play ball but not with Netanyahu in not be a panacea for the Palestin- dle East analyst. Anti-BDS move likely among first actions of new UK government

The Conservative Party, whose Union, it is highly unlikely that Is- can set. dents in the United States.” election manifesto was judged rael would be one of the countries This final appeal resulted from This follows the recent decision to be “thin” on policy, had found the commitment applies to. In fact, an initial judicial review that by the French parliament to equate Kamel room to mention the conflict under it singled Israel out for exception determined the government acted anti-Zionism with antisemitism. Hawwash a section headed “Promote our val- from accountability for human unlawfully by imposing restric- Taking together, the moves seem ues,” which begins with the claim rights abuses. tions. It is possibly significant that designed to silence Palestinians that the United Kingdom “has long This came under the “Support- the manifesto commits to ensuring and their supporters by label- been a beacon of freedom and hu- ing all victims of crime” section, in that “judicial review is avail- ling any action in support of their he United Kingdom’s man rights — and will continue to which it mentioned a policy that is able to protect the rights of the rights as anti-Semitic. The BDS general election be so.” The United Kingdom would undoubtedly designed to protect individuals against an overbearing movement’s demands are legal resulted in a resound- “continue to support international Israel from the BDS movement, state, while ensuring that it is not and moral. It calls for an end to the ing victory for Prime initiatives to achieve reconcilia- though this was not stated explic- abused to conduct politics by an- occupation, equal rights for all citi- Minister Boris Johnson, tion, stability and justice across itly but through the government other means or to create needless zens of Israel and the promotion of providing him an 80- the world.” The commitment in the committing to “ban public bodies delays.” the right of return for Palestinian Tseat majority in the House of Com- Middle East is only to “maintain from imposing their own direct or The Conservatives have a record refugees. How is this anti-Semitic? mons and therefore a free hand in our support for a two- indirect boycotts, disinvestment or of changing British law to pro- pushing his programme through state solution.” sanctions campaigns against for- tect Israel, as they did when they with little resistance. While the mani- eign countries.” The reason given changed the universal jurisdiction His first task will be to honour festo lays out a is that such campaigns “under- law to protect Israeli leaders and Considering its his promise to deliver Brexit. He strong commit- mine community cohesion.” military personnel from arrest for historic responsibility will then have to honour promises ment to champi- Why now? This may be because possible war crimes. to the Palestinian on health, policing and housing. on human rights of the rising effectiveness of the Another reason for the anti-BDS However, it was rather surpris- once outside the peaceful movement and pres- move by the British government people, the United ing that one of the first non-Brexit European sure from the pro-Israel lobby, may be an implicit encourage- Kingdom should be announcements was made not which includes CFI and Pickles. It ment from across the Atlantic in Westminster but in Jerusalem. may also be to counter through to act following US President atoning for the This came via Lord Eric Pickles, a legislation the government Donald Trump’s executive order Balfour Declaration. known ardent supporter of Israel possibly losing an appeal in the effectively defining Judaism as a and denier of Palestinian rights. Supreme Court brought about nationality, not just a religion, in Considering its historic responsi- He is chairman of the Conservative by the Palestine Solidarity a move that could suppress the bility to the Palestinian people, the Friends of Israel (CFI) in the House Campaign, on whether local BDS movement, especially on US United Kingdom should be atoning of Lords, an influential but notori- authority pension schemes campuses. for the Balfour Declaration, a 1917 ously anti-Palestinian, pro-Israel can divest from companies Writing in the New York Times, statement issued by the British lobby group that claims to have complicit in human rights Jared Kushner, the president’s government that supported the es- 80% of Conservative MPs among abuses. The government son-in-law and driver of the tablishment of a “national home” its members. He is also the United argued this constitutes in- executive order, said: “Students, for Jewish people in Palestine. Kingdom’s special envoy for post- terference in setting foreign in particular, continue to face The new British government’s first Holocaust issues. policy, which it says only anti-Semitic harassment in schools move on the Israeli-Palestinian Speaking December 15 at the the national government and on college campuses.” With conflict should have been to im- Institute for Strategic Dialogue’s the December 11 “executive order, plement international law but in- conference in Jerusalem, Pickles the president takes crucial action stead, it chose to legislate to shield claimed the Boycott, Divestment to support and defend Jewish stu- Israel from legitimate protest and and Sanctions (BDS) movement boycott. was “antisemitic and should be The message to Israel is clear: treated as such.” He said Johnson You can continue to defy interna- would attempt to pass a law ban- tional law with the United King- ning local councils from joining dom’s support and protection. the BDS campaign. He said the law would not allow public bodies Kamel Hawwash is a to work with those who boycott, Unexpected start. Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaking at the despatch box in the House of Britain-based Palestinian divest from or sanction Israel. Commons in London, during the first sitting of Parliament since the general election, December 17. (AFP) university professor and writer. 16 December 22, 2019 News & Analysis Turkey Tensions, sanctions offer US chance to reset Turkey policy

David Lepeska States have the two largest armies in NATO. London “Maybe we don’t want a divorce. We want a separation,” Schenkkan he crisis in US-Turkey rela- said in a podcast, “but there’s no tions and looming US sanc- question that the US still has inter- tions against Turkey offers ests it needs to protect because the T an opportunity for the Unit- bilateral relationship has got so un- ed States to reassess its policy and reliable and so volatile.” craft a vision that points towards a As for sanctions, he said the US renewed partnership in a post-Er- Congress should compel US Presi- dogan future. dent Donald Trump to levy sanc- The US Senate Foreign Relations tions under the Countering Ameri- Committee advanced the Risch Bill, can Adversaries through Sanctions which aims to impose sanctions on Act (CAATSA), which is mainly what Turkey for its purchase of Russia- the Risch Bill does. made S-400 missile defences and its For months, Trump blocked sanc- latest offensive in Syria. tions against Turkey for its S-400 Idle for months. The stalled Dudullu-Bostanci metro project construction site on the Asia side of The Senate unanimously passed purchase, which should have trig- Istanbul, December 12. (AFP) an Armenian genocide resolution, gered CAATSA sanctions. This frus- after Republican senators had three trated US lawmakers. “The pressure times blocked the motion, and is building up and they’re looking to “It is a no-brainer that a rally- Turkish media but rather that Er- and Schenkkan said it had estab- passed a defence bill that calls for escalate,” said Schenkkan. around-the-flag call based on the dogan had found new ways to stamp lished relationships and built mo- sanctions against Turkey and pro- Schenkkan sees CAATSA sanc- new wave of anti-Americanism that out independent reporting. Two in- mentum for democratic improve- hibits the delivery of F-35 fighter jets tions for Turkey’s S-400 purchase as is sure to come would be the main dependent newspapers, BirGun and ments. He acknowledged that to Ankara. narrowly signalling the crossing of campaign theme of President Er- Evrensel, reported that the state such a policy would likely provide a red line that discussed with Turk- dogan,” Unluhisarcikli said. body that places ads in newspapers Erdogan and other Turkish offi- ish officials for more than two years, This sort of campaign rhetoric, stopped advertising with them, re- cials fodder for their anti-American Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, while some of the proposed sanc- combined with US-Turkey tensions sulting in a sharp decline in revenue. rhetoric. director of the Ankara tions could devastate the Turkish related to sanctions, the S-400 deal Schenkkan said the government “We’re going to be accused of office of the German economy or nearly sever the secu- and Turkey’s offensive in north- pulling advertising from critical coup plotting no matter what we Marshall Fund, predicted rity relationship. eastern Syria, has trickled down to media outlets had likely reached a do, it seems,” he said, pointing to US sanctions levied as a “These are as much about US do- the citizenry on both sides. peak and that the main reason few- the trial against Turkish philanthro- result of the Risch Bill mestic politics and about frustra- A Pew Research poll stated that er journalists were being impris- pist Osman Kavala, who is charged would undermine tions Congress has with President 2% of Turkish respondents said they oned was that so few independent with attempting to overthrow the Turkey’s economic Trump’s foreign policy as they view the United States as a top ally, news outlets were still operating. government because he took part in growth. are about Turkey policy,” he said. down from 4% in 2007. Nearly half of “There’s so many fewer outlets mass protests. The European Court “That’s not a good way to make big Turks surveyed (46%) said the Unit- that engage in critical activities,” he of Human Rights has called for Kav- Turkish President Recep Tayyip decisions about what is still a very ed States is the top threat to Turkey. said, pointing to the closure of some ala’s immediate release. Erdogan dismissed the Armenian important ally and partner.” A YouGov poll indicated that 6% of 180 outlets after the coup attempt, “Osman Kavala’s in prison for genocide decision as “null and void” In a series of tweets December 16, Americans asked said they see Tur- as well as government-backed me- over two years for coup plotting, and threatened to shut a NATO radar Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the key as an ally, while 43% said Turkey dia takeovers, such as that of the for something that has been ruled base in south-eastern Turkey and Ankara office of the German Mar- was unfriendly or an enemy. Dogan Media Group last year. by the European Court of Human Incirlik Airbase, which is used by US shall Fund, predicted that US sanc- “It’s been a very rough at least five “You have a ton of journalists, in- Rights to be total nonsense,” said forces, in response to US sanctions. tions levied as a result of the Risch years, probably ten years, of decline cluding some pretty famous ones, Schenkkan. “I think that practically That might be fine with Nate Bill would undermine Turkey’s eco- in Turkey in terms of democratic who don’t have anywhere to write,” everyone who’s engaged in democ- Schenkkan, director for special re- nomic growth and possibly push standards,” said Schenkkan. “I don’t said Schenkkan. “They’ve purged racy and human rights work, wheth- search at Freedom House. Erdogan to consider calling for early think Turkey can really turn that the space to a very large degree.” er they are foreign or local, has been In a brief for Freedom House, he elections in order to avoid a decline around without concrete actions.” Schenkkan argued that the United accused of coup plotting.” laid out a new US policy towards in support. The Committee to Protect Jour- States should support and finance Turkey that included expelling, Since Turkey launched its north- nalists (CPJ) said that, for the first independent journalism in Turkey, David Lepeska, a freelance rather than suspending, Turkey eastern Syria offensive on October time in four years, Turkey was no as well as human rights activists and journalist, has reported about from the programme to build F-35 9, rising nationalist sentiment has longer the world’s leading jailer of defenders, to keep the door open for Turkey, including Kurdish areas in fighter jets, removing US nuclear driven up support for Erdogan. Ob- journalists. That distinction goes to a renewed partnership under new south-eastern Turkey, from 2013- weapons from Incirlik and generally servers expect US sanctions to spur China. political leadership. 16. This article first appeared on reducing the US military presence greater nationalist sentiment for a The CPJ said the change did not The United States does similar ahvalnews.com and is republished in Turkey. Turkey and the United president seen as unfairly besieged. signal an improved situation for work in countries all over the world with permission.

Viewpoint Is Erdogan’s Turkey a rogue state?

When looking at Turkey’s place in ister, whose government doesn’t the term “rogue state” applied to “Greece’s already difficult the world, it is important to recall recognise Cyprus, whose embassy Turkey and I am afraid it won’t neighbour is becoming even more that both world wars were caused in Damascus shut down, whose be the last. Since the collapse of unpredictable, if not downright normalisation protocols between Yavuz Baydar in part by “ostrich mentality” — the diplomatic relations with Israel and unhinged. Turkey no longer seems refusal to deal with problems at Egypt are nearly non-existent. Turkey and Armenia a decade ago bound by rational thinking and hand. “Whichever major issue we because of Erdogan’s last-minute balance of power considerations,” Has this lesson been learnt? Do choose, we see Ankara as the one change of heart, Turkey has en- he added. world powers fully appreciate that with a problem and solution-orient- gaged in irredentism, so far uninter- There are objections to the rogue urkish President Recep the course of history is sometimes ed…” rupted. state argument. “Turkey believes Tayyip Erdogan’s ma- determined, for better or worse, by Another attendee chimed in: “We Its incursion into Syria, chal- — rightly — that regional power noeuvres south of Turk- single leaders? have a rogue state at hand, nobody lenging major governments in the structures are being reconfigured; ish border and broader If we presume this to be the case, wants to openly admit that and Eastern Mediterranean on gas drill- its aggressive foreign policy stance global ambitions are it is clear appeasement is no way to that’s the point.” ing and signing a memorandum is an attempt to position itself for finally getting the atten- move forward when facing a dire Is Turkey a “rogue state?” Let’s with the Government of National this reconfiguration,” wrote Howard Ttion they deserve. Foreign capitals threat. have a look at the definition. Collins Accord in Libya are all part of its Eissenstat, a professor at Saint Law- are waking up — albeit slowly — to I was struck by a simple fact dictionary defines a rogue state as expansionist policy. Everything rence University. Turkey’s expansionist agenda. when listening to two senior inter- “a state that conducts its policy in Ankara does indicates it is planning However, while Turkey’s posi- Turkish officials are making no national analysts react to Turkish a dangerously unpredictable way, to go all the way and all alone. The tions may have been caused by the effort to hide their intentions. They Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusog- disregarding international law or latter is the part the international need for recalibration, the way it are taking every opportunity, in- lu’s rowdy defence of Ankara’s posi- diplomacy.” Cambridge dictionary community is waking up to, in slow has conducted itself has fuelled cluding at international forums, to tions on Syria, hydrocarbon drilling describes it as a state “dangerous to motion. polarisation in the region while employ defiant and often threaten- off Cyprus and the Libyan conflict at other nations.” Wikipedia describes As Tom Ellis commented in the alienating Ankara. ing rhetoric. This muscle-flexing the Rome MED conference. Despite “rogue state” as “a term applied Greek newspaper Kathimerini: One issue that is rarely consid- was evident at the Rome MED Turkey’s known aversion to tradi- by some international theorists to “Turkey is behaving like a mighty ered is that the core of Turkey’s for- Conference, as well as in Doha and tional diplomacy, no one expected states they consider threatening country that doesn’t need anyone’s eign office is broken. The rational, Kuala Lumpur. such a maximalist stance, especially to the world’s peace. This means support. Almost like a superpower. first-rate, soft power-oriented at a forum whose declared motto being seen to meet certain criteria, It takes every opportunity to show diplomatic staff has been replaced was “positive agenda.” such as being ruled by authoritar- that it is determined to do what it with third-rate footmen, directed One gentleman I spoke with after ian or totalitarian governments wants to do, without accounting for vertically by the palace in Ankara. Rogue state or not, the event exclaimed that “we are that severely restrict human rights, the reactions of the international Rogue state or not, the militarisa- the militarisation of fooling ourselves regarding Turkey.” sponsoring terrorism and seek- community, including those of the tion of Turkey’s foreign policy is When asked how, he replied: ing to proliferate weapons of mass United States…. a mirror of Erdog- a harbinger of far deeper regional Turkey’s foreign “Look at Syria, and look now what’s destruction.” an’s own megalomania, which has troubles. policy is a harbinger happening with Libya…Here we are, A combination of unilateralism only grown worse following how pretending as if the entire picture and maximalism in action helps easily he was allowed to carry out Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish journalist of far deeper regional has all the options to turn rosy and explain the meaning of the term. his operation in Syria at almost no and regular columnist troubles. we have just heard a foreign min- This was not the first time I heard political cost.” for The Arab Weekly. December 22, 2019 17 News & Analysis Iran International nuclear pact with Iran could collapse in 2020, analysts say

Thomas Seibert

Istanbul

ollowing several severe blows in 2019, the landmark agreement between world F powers and Iran to prevent the development of nuclear weap- ons by Tehran could collapse in the new year, analysts said. The recent prisoner exchange between the United States and Iran sparked hopes of a rapprochement. Iranian President Hassan Rohani said, during a 2-day visit to Japan, that Iran would “not turn down any negotiation and agreement that serve our interests,” a December 20 statement from the Iranian presi- dency said. However, chances for a last- minute resolution of the confron- tation appear slim. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed seri- ous concerns to Rohani about Iran scaling back its commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal and urged him to refrain from steps that undermine the agreement, Reuters reported. Rohani said Iran’s reduction of its commitments were “based on the deal itself,” Iran’s presidency said. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), hailed as a dip- Deadlock. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Abbas Araghchi (C-R) and German Secretary-General of the European lomatic breakthrough when it was External Action Service Helga Maria Schmid (C-L) attend a meeting of the Joint Commission on Iran’s nuclear programme in Vienna, signed four years ago, has been on December 6. (AFP) a downward spiral since US Presi- dent Donald Trump withdrew his of US sanctions. calculating the consequences prop- protect US interests in the country the [Arabian] Gulf, which has in- country from the pact in 2018. This European envoys used a meet- erly. Sooner or later the Europeans while mulling the deployment of cluded attacks on tankers and on year, the Trump administration ing of the remaining parties to the will trigger the Dispute Resolution 5,000-7,000 additional troops to Saudi oil installations. It has weak- stepped up a “maximum pressure” accord — China, France, Germany, Mechanism under the JCPOA, with the region. ened President Hassan Rohani and campaign against Iran to force Teh- Russia and the United Kingdom — possible European or UN sanctions Consequences of those develop- his Foreign Minister [Mohammad] ran to accept stricter limits on its with Iranian officials in December following.” ments might not be limited to the Javad Zarif, who were the best nuclear programme, threatening to warn that their countries could The Trump administration is nuclear pact itself. Tehran could hopes for a rapprochement with the sanctions against countries that trigger a mechanism that might not showing any inclination to end also decide to abandon the Nuclear West, and has greatly strengthened buy Iranian oil. lead to a return of UN sanctions its “maximum pressure” strategy. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), un- and emboldened the hardliners.” against Tehran. Such a step would Trump, fighting for re-election next der which Iran has vowed to pursue Jahanpour said victories by Irani- probably be the end of the JCPOA. November, is unlikely to end sanc- a nuclear programme for civilian an hardliners in parliamentary elec- Tensions between the A decision is expected in January, tions unless Iran gives in to his de- purposes only and to accept interna- tions in February and presidential United States and Iran reports stated. mands. Tehran has seen oil exports tional inspections of its nuclear sites. elections in 2021 would “seal the are rising because of a The European powers — called drop to around 400,000 barrels per “Iran could leave the JCPOA and fate of the JCPOA.” spike of attacks on the E3 — and Iran also clashed over day (bpd) from 2.5 million bpd be- the NPT as well,” Fathollah-Nejad Japan’s mediation offered “a military bases in Iraq the Iranian ballistic missile pro- fore Trump’s sanctions programme said. “We could have a veritable nu- glimmer of hope,” Jahanpour said. that host US troops. gramme, with the E3 charging that started and is facing domestic un- clear crisis on our hands with a pos- Abe, who has a close relationship Iran tested a nuclear-capable ballis- rest but has been digging in its heels. sible military confrontation.” with Trump, said Japan arranged Iran responded with attacks on tic missile, which Iran denies. Tensions between the United Farhang Jahanpour, a British the Rohani visit because it wanted oil tankers in the Gulf and oil instal- “Things are likely to escalate in States and Iran are also rising be- academic of Iranian descent and to play a greater role in resolving lations in Saudi Arabia by its own the new year,” Ali Fathollah-Nejad, cause of attacks on military bases in a commentator on Iranian affairs, the nuclear impasse between Teh- forces or by proxies and with a se- a visiting fellow at the Brookings Iraq that host US troops. Washing- said prospects for survival of the ran and Washington. ries of violations of JCPOA rules, Doha Centre, said by telephone. ton blames Iran-backed Shia para- JCPOA in 2020 were dim. The visit comes after Trump including resuming uranium en- “Both Iran and the Europeans could military groups. A US source recent- “It is clear that the Trump admin- sounded optimistic with regards to richment at its underground For- reach the end of the line soon. ly told Agence France-Presse that istration’s policy of ‘maximum pres- the recent prisoner swap. dow plant. Caught in the middle, “There is no indication that Iran pro-Iran factions in Iraq were con- sure’ has failed to persuade Iran to “Thank you to Iran on a very European co-signatories of the ac- will change its strategy. It will stick sidered a more significant threat to take part in new talks,” Jahanpour fair negotiation,” the US president cord failed to secure economic ben- to the reduction of its commit- US troops than the Islamic State. said by e-mail. “On the contrary, it tweeted. “See, we can make a deal efits for Tehran to offset the effect ments under the JCPOA without Washington has told Baghdad to has led to a dangerous situation in together!” Not the season to be merry in Tehran

t is sad to see a country, the Palestinian territories, where the country in mass protests in the problem of young demonstrators such as Iran, rich in mineral it funds Islamist groups, such as streets of Tehran and cities around demanding a say in the way they resources, having a capable Hamas and Islamic Jihad. the country. are governed. That approach seems Claude Salhani workforce and a cultured The government of the Islamic To say that the Iranian leadership to be breeding a new generation middle class and, yet, a large revolution has allocated tens of and its proxies are in dire straits is of enemies, this time among Iraqi portion of the people strug- millions of dollars in trying to not overstating the situation. Shias. Igle just to keep their heads above impress and impose its policies in The government has over- Protesters are not about to stop water, financially speaking. Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza and stretched its resources by support- the demonstrations whether in Iraq When the cost of diapers for a the West Bank. ing the Syrian regime in the civil or in Lebanon. baby hovers around $24 a packet, Not to mention the infiltration of war, financing and arming proxies Lebanon’s Hezbollah faces a rude you know something is not right. Iranian intelligence agents in the in Lebanon and Iraq. Hezbollah is awakening as protesters who have When the price of petrol doubles rest of the world, including Western unable to pay its fighters because taken to the streets for two months overnight and residents turn the Europe and the nuclear issue that funds from Tehran have not come do not seem to fear threats from streets into battle zones, you know has triggered economic sanctions. through. The shrinking budgets of the Party of God. something is not right. In so doing the mullahs gained Hezbollah’s military and propa- The narrative used to describe When authorities arrest people some friends, a few, on whom they ganda operations are causing many Hezbollah as part of the resistance by the thousands, possibly execut- can call on for favours, as with defections from its ranks. to Israel has outlived its purpose. ing some, you definitely know Lebanon’s Hezbollah. If they have For Iran, Iraq is maybe an invest- It cannot shield it from protests something is not right. gained some friends, they have ir- ment in the future control of a rich the people in Lebanon participate For that regrettable state of ritated many more people, not least country’s destiny but this strategy in daily. Not even Lebanon’s Shia affairs Iranians can thank the mul- of which are the Americans. is badly backfiring and earning Teh- community is convinced anymore lahs who control the day-to-day Iranians are beginning to ques- ran’s leading supporters in Baghdad by Hezbollah’s promises of distri- issues that touch the people of Iran. tion the logic of propping up proxy new sanctions. bution of spoils and benefits. Shias, For Iran, Iraq is The clergy controls every aspect groups around the region when Iranians got involved in Iraq be- as well as Sunnis and Christians, maybe an of government, including monitor- their citizens go hungry or broke, lieving they were expanding their see such sectarian handouts as part ing the internet. In their ever- just trying to buy diapers for a influence there but they became so of a corrupt system that must go. investment in the so-fine wisdom, ruling mullahs baby. involved that the welcome mat has future control of a have final say over the country’s After Iranian years of squan- been removed with prejudice. Claude Salhani is a regular involvement in the region’s domes- dering huge sums of money, the In Iraq, Iranian militias kid- columnist for The Arab Weekly and rich country’s tic policies. Ergo, Iranian influence disenchantment of the regular napped protesters and shot them at a senior fellow at the Institute of destiny. in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and in people is being heard throughout will, believing this could solve the World Affairs in Washington. 18 December 22, 2019 Spotlight Jihadist Threat in Sahel Viewpoint Sahel region terror sparks fears of ‘jihadist arc’ from Africa to Levant

Majed Nehme

ews from the Sahel is alarming for the people in the region, which stretches from Nigeria to , as much as it is for the Nfailed states that claim to govern it. There are fears those countries could be swept by trafficker- supported jihadists thriving in the region. Mafia-like organisations traffic in illicit drugs, cigarettes and people. Their support for local tribal armed groups in the region provides them insurance. The Sahel covers 3 million sq.km, which constitutes a link between the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Afri- ca, crossing a dozen countries from the mouth of the Senegal River to the Sudanese Upper Nile. Although the countries in the region are ranked among the poor- est in the world, the Sahel is not a physical and human desert but is very fragile because of extreme cli- matic vagaries, repeated droughts and rampant demography. The total population of the five main countries of the Sahel — Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad — was 135 million in 2015. By 2050, Complex mission. A soldier of the French Army adjusts the coordinates of a mortar ready to be used at a Temporary Operative Advanced it could exceed 330 million. Base (BOAT) during the Bourgou IV operation in Northern Burkina Faso, November 10. (AFP) Security in the Sahel deteriorated dangerously because of the weak- ness of the involved countries and intentions of its members, the G5 tomorrow it will be Chad. None of Tripoli is backed by an array of could advance to the Middle East,” geopolitical upheavals caused and remained an empty shell as was the our countries can do it alone in the Islamist militias and supported that they are “linked to the Islamic amplified by the implosion of Libya. UN Multidimensional Integrated face of this armada.” by Turkey and by Qatar, sponsor State” and “are in the process of Since NATO’s military intervention Stabilisation Mission in Mali, which The Libyan disaster adversely of the Libyan Muslim Brother- constituting an arc towards Chad against Muammar Qaddafi’s Libya was deployed July 1, 2013, and affected more and more countries. hood and a suspected financing and Nigeria, which could go all the in 2011, the fragmented territory which followed the International Algeria, which strongly opposed the source of Islamist movements way up to the Middle East.” has been seen as a sanctuary for Support Mission in Mali formed by war against Libya, was the target, in Mali and Niger. Those groups He said there were “terrorist jihadist movements that congre- the Economic Community of West in January 2013, of a terrorist attack are attacking French soldiers and groups operating in Libya and gated in northern Mali and created African States. from Libya against the In Amenas shedding French blood as well as all of this makes an arc of terror- an ephemeral Islamic Caliphate. It would be excessive to say the gas site. The attack resulted in that of the allied forces of Mali ist groups that can go up to the Those movements, notably the war in Libya is the main factor in the death of 32 militants and the and Niger. Levant.” Movement for Oneness and Jihad in the destabilisation of the Sahel. capture of five assailants after the French experts wonder if the 13 What to do, then, in the face of West Africa (MOJWA) and al-Qaeda However it opened a Pandora’s box killing of 37 foreign workers and French soldiers killed November 25 Islamic State fighters fleeing Iraq in the Islamic Maghreb, suspected that led to chaos in the region. one Algerian. during a combat mission in north- and Syria towards Libya and the to be financially supported by Former French President Nicolas Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon had eastern Mali and the subsequent Is- Sahel? Qatar, took the upper hand over the Sarkozy was oblivious to the repeat- been the target of Boko Haram at- lamic State-claimed attack in Niger For some experts, the French Tuareg movements and, in Novem- ed warnings of the main Maghreb tacks. Burkina Faso, after the fall of that caused the death of 71 soldiers, strategy did not address serious ber 2012, moved towards Bamako, and African leaders and the African the Compaore regime, has become a could trigger the long-awaited security threats in the region as it threatening the central Malian Union about the dangerous conse- hub for Sahel terrorism. awakening of French diplomacy applied isolated and short-term power and the entire Sahel. quences of the French-led interven- In his April 2016 interview with vis-a-vis the Sahel and Libya. tactics that failed in Iraq and tion in Libya, lack of exit strategy the Atlantic, Obama admitted that Statements by French Minister of Syria. The French strategy did not and short-sightedness of former US managing the post-Qaddafi era Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian consider the regional picture and President Barack Obama’s strategy was his worst foreign policy failure give French experts hope. excluded security cooperation with Eight years after of “leading from behind.” but he blamed Sarkozy and British In an interview with public forces fighting terrorism in Libya the fiasco in Libya In an interview with Le Figaro Prime Minister David Cameron. radio RFI, Le Drian admitted that and in the Levant. It remained too in June 2013, Chadian President “When I go back and I ask myself “the terrorist groups in the Sahel Franco-centric and was unable and the Sahel, Idriss Deby recalled: “I believe that what went wrong,” Obama said, to mobilise wide international there is every the current situation in the Sahel “there’s room for criticism because awareness about the threat or real reason to believe should not come as a surprise to I had more faith in the Europeans, African support. anyone. From the start of the war given Libya’s proximity, being To avoid a new Afghanistan that the European in Libya, we knew that the con- invested in the follow-up.” in the Sahel and the Maghreb, a “proximity” sequences would be dramatic for Eight years after the fiasco in stone’s throw from Europe, mili- neighbouring countries but also for Libya and the Sahel, there is every tary solutions are not enough. Only Obama mentioned Libya itself. reason to believe that the European a radical change of strategy, based resolved nothing. “Our fears were drawn from our “proximity” Obama mentioned on the rehabilitation of the failed knowledge of the men, culture and resolved nothing. Neither in Libya Sahel states, on global and sustain- Following the fall of Konna, a social organisation of that country. nor in the Sahel countries where able socio-economic and cultural strategic MOJWA victory that could This is why I had asked, at the time, popular anger is brewing against development and on national rec- have led to the fall of Bamako, for a formula that would allow the French strategy, accused of onciliation can dry up the ground former French President Francois Qaddafi to leave while allowing the complacency in which terrorism, organised Hollande decided, on January 13, Libyans to be reconciled and to set vis-a-vis crime and trafficking flourish. 2013, to intervene militarily, with up institutions. My views were tak- terror- For this change to occur, the support of Chad, to recapture en for a plea of a​​ friend of Qaddafi ism. experts said, the French must territories controlled by the jihad- but I knew the consequences of this In let go of the ideological prism ists. war. Nobody prepared for them.” Libya, through which France and Europe Dubbed Operation Serval, the Deby added that Sarkozy “must French have looked at the Arab world French intervention force included have thought, doubtless in good policy sup- and Africa and which has led to nearly 1,800 soldiers. On August 1, faith, that, after Qaddafi, Libya ports a govern- geopolitical blindness. The status 2014, Operation Serval became Op- would have a democratic and ment with dubious quo aggravates insecurity in Libya, eration Barkhane and was extended organised regime. It was really mis- legitimacy. The knowing that the country is being to the entire Sahel-Saharan strip, an understanding Libyan society. Government of used by Turkey and by Qatar as area as large as Europe. “Mali was the first country af- National Accord in their battle against the whole of the It covers parts of the countries fected by the Libyan problems but Arab world and Europe. of the G5, a regional grouping of we must not delude ourselves. We, Setting off alarm bells. French Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Yves Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Burkina the countries of the Sahel, will all be Le Drian addresses a session of questions to the government at the Majed Nehme is a Syrian-French Faso and Chad. Despite the good affected. Mali and Niger yesterday, National Assembly in Paris, December 17. (AFP) journalist in Paris. December 22, 2019 19 News & Analysis East West Washington’s policies straining Israel, Jordan ties

Emily Przyborowski turn to Israel to Palestinians living in Jordan border. “The establish- ment of a Palestinian state with Washington East Jerusalem as its capital is a top Jordanian interest and any- ith its starkly pro-Isra- thing that opposes it will have to el stances, the Trump be confronted,” said Mohammad administration may al-Momani, a former minister of W be complicating the state affairs and communications strained relationship between Is- for Jordan, following Pompeo’s an- rael and Jordan, analysts said. nouncement. In an unconfirmed release of the To make matters worse for Jor- Trump administration’s Israeli-Pal- dan, Netanyahu is pushing for the estinian peace plan, Jordan would annexation of the Jordan Valley. lose custodianship over the Tem- He claimed he had a conversation ple Mount in Jerusalem. The report with Trump regarding annexation. claims Saudi Arabia would be ap- “We talked about Iran but we also pointed custodian and Israel would talked at length about historic op- have overall sovereignty of the site. portunities that stand before us in Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the coming months. Among them the Brookings Institution, a Wash- are [establishing] the Jordan Valley ington think-tank, said the Trump as the recognised eastern border of administration may be endanger- the state of Israel, as well as a de- ing the status of the 1994 Israel- fence treaty with the United States. Jordan peace treaty. Things we could only dream of but now we have the opportunity to re- alise them,” said Netanyahu on De- Jordan depends on a close cember 2. The Trump administra- relationship with Israel to tion had not spoken out in support keep its economy afloat, of the annexation until then. especially in technology US experts also expressed con- cern about the implications of and tourism. A troubled relationship in a volatile region. Jordanian visitors walk next to a poster depicting annexing the Jordan Valley, land Jordanian King Abdullah II during their visit to Baqoura area on the Jordanian side of the border with thought to be guaranteed to the “The Trump administration has Israel, November 13. (Reuters) tilted dramatically towards Israel Palestinians should a deal with Is- on all the issues that concern Jor- rael be reached. Annexation would danians about the future of the increase tensions between Israel Islamic State, as well as Palestinian 2020. Jordan has a similar agree- sion but its symbolic value reveals Palestinian issue, especially the and the Palestinians. nationalist groups such as Hamas, ment for $15 billion with the Egyp- a lot about the gradual erosion of status of Jerusalem,” said Riedel in “It is difficult to predict the pre- to establish a greater foothold and tian government. trust and optimism in the bilat- a Brookings report. The Jordanian cise reaction of Jordan’s Palestin- take aim at Israel. This would likely The natural gas deal with Israel eral relationship,” Ellen Laipson, a government likely senses the close ian population to Israeli annexa- invite a response from groups such revealed simmering discontent US Middle East expert and former relationship between Israeli Prime tion of parts of the West Bank but as Iran and Hezbollah to intervene among the Jordanians with their president at the Stimson Centre, Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and it would not be in Israel’s favour,” in the area, extending and building government’s relationship with wrote in Asia Times. US President Donald Trump as well wrote Albert Wolf, dean of the Col- upon their foothold in Syria and Israel. Palestinian and Jordanian Despite strains on their relation- as US policies that favour Israel put lege of International Studies at the exacerbating the security dilemma legislators and political activists ship, Jordan and Israel have too its concerns on the back burner, he American University of Kurdistan, throughout the region.” have called for the agreement to be many interests in common to walk said. in Foreign Policy. The Jordanian economy has cancelled. Protests occurred in Jor- out of that relationship. Further straining the relation- Wolf asserted that annexation been struggling under the burden dan after the deal was signed and On November 28, only days after ship was US Secretary of State could lead to mass protests that of hosting 6 million Palestinian were expected to escalate when Is- the deteriorating relations over the Mike Pompeo announcing that the could threaten the stability of the refugees since 1968 and 1.4 million raeli gas starts being pumped into land leases, Israeli President Reu- United States would no longer con- Jordanian monarchy or cause an- Syrian refugees in recent years as Jordan. ven Rivlin and a special adviser to sider the West Bank settlements other influx of Palestinian refugees well as those from Iraq. Tensions have also been rising Jordanian King Abdullah II, Prince a violation of international law, into Jordan. Jordan depends on a close re- because of two territories — Baqou- Ghazi bin Muhammad, met in Lon- which further distanced Jordan Such a destabilisation may ren- lationship with Israel to keep its ra and al-Ghamr — returned to Jor- don. While they discussed several from both Israel and the United der Jordan vulnerable to Islamic economy afloat, especially in tech- danian sovereignty in November. issues, the most important was States. The announcement further extremist groups, considering the nology and tourism. A $10 billion Jordan declined Israeli requests to planning a joint Christian tourism dims chances of an agreement be- country’s proximity to Syria and natural gas deal was signed in 2016 renew the land leases on the terri- project along the Jordan River. tween Israel and the Palestinians. Iraq, Wolf said. in which Israel agreed to supply tories, which were part of the 1994 Jordan, host to a large Palestin- He argued that the situation Amman with gas for 15 years. Con- Israel-Jordan peace deal. Emily Przyborowski is an ian population, wanted an agree- “could in turn provide a window of struction on the project was ex- “It’s important not to exaggerate Arab Weekly correspondent in ment that guarantees right of re- opportunity for groups such as the pected to be completed in January the significance of Jordan’s deci- Washington.

Viewpoint France’s pension protests spark unexpected debate on immigration

Has the public got it wrong? Rabault said at the time that wel- In one of his last acts as France’s coming 300,000 newcomers a year pensions commissioner before being was “essential for regenerating the Colin Randall forced to resign over legal issues population, allowing our economy to regarding his sources of income, Jean- preserve its capacity for innovation Paul Delevoye said that, with people and perpetuating our social protec- t each outbreak of dis- living longer, Europe needed 50 mil- tion system.” ruptive strikes in France, lion immigrants by 2050 to make the This preceded the crises that gener- international reaction working population more balanced. ated mass migration from the Middle Unresolved issue. People take part in a human chain to protest ranges from sneaking re- The right and far right responded East, Africa and Afghanistan, strain- against the government’s policies against migrants in Briancon, gard for Gallic traditions with predictable anger, both to Del- ing resources in southern European south-eastern France, December 4. (AFP) of rebellious defiance to evoye’s projection and to the words countries of entry and stirring social wearyA sighs of “not again.” he chose when challenging polemic and political tensions. Last year, The latest explosion of anger, surrounding immigration: “We make France received more than 120,000 average EU migrant to the United More than a year on, he stands escalating to the sabotage of power the Jew the scapegoat of yesterday, asylum requests, a 22% rise on 2017. Kingdom contributed $3,000 more by those conclusions and insists it supplies, was aimed at forcing French the Muslim today.” French Prime Minister Edouard in net terms than the average adult must be made simpler for dynamic, President Emmanuel Macron to act Eric Ciotti, from the centre-right Philippe appeared to borrow a page born in Britain. modern businesses to recruit skilled on his planned overhaul of a costly party the Republicans, called it a from the book of populist rhetoric The value to the exchequer, the overseas staff. and chaotic pensions system. “dubious and unacceptable parallel.” when he announced a 20-point immi- MAC said, was the equivalent of put- Despite his attempts to appear It also highlights an unexpected Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right, gration plan, effectively anticipating ting 5p in the pound on income tax. It tough on immigration and appease development in the debate on im- anti-immigration National Rally and the Le Pen response to Delevoye by concluded that, while migration rules the conservative voters who helped migration. Far from sinking under neck-and-neck with Macron in opin- promising France would “take back could not be changed without creat- him to emphatic victory over Le Pen the weight of unmanageable waves of ion polls, urged voters “to wake up control.” The proposals include limits ing winners and losers, the United in the 2017 presidential election, the migrants, Europe, some experts say, quickly and take back control of their on access to health care and the impo- Kingdom should focus after Brexit message will not be lost on a modern needs more of them as its population destiny.” sition of quotas for industries needing on enabling higher-skilled migration technocrat such as Macron. ages. There is another narrative that at- skilled foreign recruits. coupled with a more restrictive policy His much-quoted statement that The case for a liberal approach to tracts endorsement on both sides of Between the lines of an ostensibly on lower-skilled immigrants. “France cannot host everyone if it immigration is difficult to advance on the English Channel. tough stance, France is nevertheless Jonathan Portes, professor of eco- wants to host people well” is not at a continent where electoral gains by In stressing the benefits of immi- acknowledging that home-produced nomics and public policy at King’s odds with a recognition that, however populist movements are influenced gration, Delevoye was saying nothing workers cannot meet the needs of its College London, said in a paper for selectively, France must keep its by the widespread belief that large new. His thoughts echoed those of economy. The arguments by Berger the MAC that immigration had a doors open to talent. numbers of foreigners, frequently French socialist politicians, Karine and Rabault are finding echoes in substantial, positive and significant seen as unlikely to share Western Berger and Valerie Rabault, who esti- Britain. effect on productivity, adding: “An Colin Randall, a journalist based in values, threaten national identity and mated, in a book in 2011, that France An analysis by Oxford Econom- increase in the immigrant share of London and France, worked in vari- security. The view is more vocifer- needed 10 million more immigrants ics, commissioned by the British the labour force by 1% is associated ous roles for the Daily Telegraph from ously expressed when the migrants by 2040 or faced having one-quarter government’s Migration Advisory with an increase in overall productiv- 1977-2006 and was executive editor of happen to be Muslims. of its population aged 65 or older. Committee (MAC), suggested the ity of 2 to 3 percentage points.” the National at its launch in 2008. 20 December 22, 2019 Viewpoint Economy

Riyadh looks to bond markets to manage fiscal shortfall Briefs

stating: “The FY2020 budget is pre- Oil prices rise on pared in the context of challenging global economic and international optimism about Jareer Elass market conditions. Trade dis- putes continue to cast a negative economy in 2020 shadow over the global economic audi Arabia is ringing out outlook, through negative effects Crude oil traders have become the year having recorded on international trade, investment progressively more bullish about the world’s largest flows and stability of international the outlook for prices since the initial public offering markets.” beginning of October as the trade and convinced fellow Riyadh boosted spending in its war between the United States oil producers to rein in 2019 budget to jump-start a soft and China eased, lifting concerns Scrude output in support of higher economy amid hopes that in- about a global recession. oil prices. creased expenditures would spur Deeper production cuts by Saudi Riyadh’s 2020 state budget growth in the private sector. Stim- Arabia and its allies in the expand- doesn’t suggest much joy for the ulating private-sector growth has ed OPEC+ group of oil exporters coming year, though, with an been a focus of Saudi Vision 2030, have probably accelerated the anaemic global economic picture the government’s economic trans- bullish shift. prompting Saudi Arabia to trim formation programme designed However, production cuts are a government spending and expect to shift Saudi Arabia from its high second-order effect. The rise in oil lower revenues. dependence on oil revenues. prices has been primarily driven However, it’s not all doom and Despite projecting a 2.6% growth Meeting challenges. Participants attend the Saudi budget Forum by greater optimism about the gloom for the largest Gulf Arab in GDP in its 2019 budget, the Saudi in Riyadh, December 10. (AFP) outlook for global trade and the economy: its fledgling private sec- economy expanded only 0.4% economy next year. tor is making gains and Saudi GDP this year, constrained by lower oil growth is expected to rise after a production and stagnant oil prices. from 2019 levels of $20.5 billion to to do some of the projects that we (Reuters) flat performance in 2019. The government estimated that $18.4 billion. would have otherwise done, which non-oil sector gains will push GDP However, Riyadh has continued yielded a reduction of about 50 bil- growth to 2.3% in 2020. the Citizens Allowance programme lion Saudi riyals ($13.3 billion) from Volkswagen Next year’s budget Despite efforts by the Saudi-led it initiated in early 2018 that our expenditure this year. That is coalition of OPEC and independ- provides monthly cost-of-living going to continue next year.” halts production shortfall will mark the ent producers known as OPEC+ payments to lower- and middle- While encouraged by the uptick seventh consecutive to maintain production cuts of 1.2 income families, offsetting the in private sector activity, Riyadh in Algerian factory million barrels per day (bpd), poor economic sting felt from energy- is looking at tapping into proceeds year that Saudi Arabia compliance by some producers, related subsidy cuts and tax levies. from the initial public offering Car manufacturer Volkswagen recorded a deficit a global oil glut and weakening Those allowances reportedly cost of Saudi Aramco that generated suspended production in Algeria, since the collapse in economic demand kept a lid on oil the government upward of $13 $25.6 billion to stimulate economic where the head of its local partner prices during 2019. billion annually. growth in the country’s private has been detained since June in a oil prices in 2014. Riyadh, which has taken on the Interestingly, Riyadh did shave industry. Jadaan indicated that corruption probe, a spokesman for largest percentage of the produc- 8% off its projected military spend- the Saudi Public Investment Fund the German auto giant said. In the budget released December tion cuts, helped convince OPEC+ ing for 2020 from 2019 levels, allo- would probably allocate “a lot” of “Volkswagen is aware of a cor- 9, the Saudi government forecast to further slash collective output cating $48.5 billion for that sector. the Saudi Aramco sale proceeds to ruption investigation by Algerian state expenditures of 1.02 trillion by 500,000 bpd through March to Official spending does not reflect local investments. authorities into Mourad Oulmi,” riyals ($272 billion) for 2020, a 2.6% try to propel prices. off-budget military items and there Faced with a budget deficit next who heads Algerian partner Sovac, dip from this year’s spending. Saudi Arabia’s projected oil is scepticism that Saudi Arabia year that is expected to reach 6.4% the spokesman said. The budget estimates total rev- income for 2020 is $136.8 billion, a would truly rein in its defence ex- of GDP — a rise from an anticipated “Production at the factory, oper- enues at $222 billion, a 9% fall from nearly 15% slide from estimated oil penditures when relations remain 4.7% in 2019 — Riyadh will turn to ated in a co-venture with Sovac, 2019 earnings. The government revenues in 2019 of $160.5 billion. volatile with Iran, particularly after international and domestic bond is suspended, as are deliveries by anticipates the budget deficit to be Non-oil revenue is predicted to the September bombings of Saudi markets to manage its fiscal short- Volkswagen” to Sovac, the spokes- approximately $50 billion in 2020, increase next year to $85.3 billion, Aramco infrastructure that Riyadh fall. Since tapping into internation- man added. up from $35 billion. Next year’s up 1.5% from this year. has said was carried out by Tehran. al bond markets in 2016, Riyadh budget shortfall will mark the sev- The Saudi government will Saudi Finance Minister Moham- has reportedly raised as much as (Agence France-Presse) enth consecutive year that Saudi maintain spending on public med al-Jadaan credited progress $60 billion in international bond Arabia recorded a deficit since the wages at $134.4 billion next year, in the kingdom’s nascent private issues. collapse in oil prices in 2014. though it has signed off on a 22% sector in part for the government’s Giant solar park The Saudi Finance Ministry al- decrease in subsidies funding to decision to reduce its 2020 expen- Jareer Elass reports from luded to the effects that the global $4.5 billion for 2020. It plans to re- ditures, saying: “We have seen the Washington on energy issues jump-starts Egypt’s economy is having on the country, duce social benefits expenditures effort of enabling the private sector for The Arab Weekly. renewables push

Near the Egyptian city of Aswan, New budget won’t fix Iran’s economic, social or political problems the Benban plant is one of the world’s largest solar parks follow- political as fiscal. Hence, the impor- bottom 60%, penalise the top 40% ni. This explains why the protests ing completion of a second phase tance of the 15% increase (in money and cut the poverty rate 2.6%. against petrol prices are so serious. of the estimated $2.1 billion devel- terms) in government salaries and Salehi-Isfahani looked back at “At the start, the Islamic Republic opment project. opposed rich people in the name of Gareth Smyth of expanding cash handouts for 2011 when former Iranian President The plant provides nearly 1.5 most citizens. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad raised en- ‘social justice’,” said Saeid Golkar, gigawatts to Egypt’s national grid The outlook would be far worse if ergy prices and extended transfers. assistant professor of political sci- and has brought down the price loods in southern prov- employment were not increasing — He estimated the real value of what ence at the University of Tennessee. of solar energy at a time when the inces in Iran exposed 3.3% year-on-year in the third quar- people would receive today in cash “In its third decade, especially with government is phasing out elec- creaking infrastructure, ter of 2019 — as the falling rial and transfers is half that of 2011, given the Green Movement, the middle tricity subsidies. with sewage flowing sanctions favour domestic produc- that prices have quadrupled. class demanding social freedom A third phase at Benban could into the streets in Ahvaz. ers. At 10.5%, the unemployment “However, given the looming also become an enemy. add more than 300 megawatts, al- A large clean-up bill rate is the lowest for seven years. government budget deficit, this “Now, in 2019, we see protests though nothing has been decided, Fwill add pressure to government Still, the protests obscured the ra- should be seen as rather generous,” of poor and lower-middle-class while another large-scale solar finance. tionale for increasing petrol prices. Salehi-Isfahani wrote on Novem- people — the mustazafin. The social development is planned north of Parliament is considering a draft Government plans to cut energy ber 23. “The Rohani government base of the Islamic Republic has Aswan at Kom Ombo. budget for March 2020-March 2021, subsidies, which favour the better- is not repeating the mistake of the shrunk. Even the religious poor are recently presented Iranian Presi- off and divert some of the savings Ahmadinejad government that surprised by the brutality of the re- (Reuters) dent Hassan Rohani, that sets out into cash transfers to less well-off paid out [in transfers] more than action and they are hurting because to manage a 70% fall in oil revenue Iranians, were praised by both the it received from the [energy] price of the economy.” since the United States imposed IMF and advocates of social justice. increase… Without compensation, Golkar stressed the souring of Morocco holds stringent sanctions. While the However, raising petrol prices gasoline price increases hurt the popular perception. “Many peo- budget has become less transparent before new cash payments were an- poor, not because the poor are big ple believe corruption and poor benchmark interest in recent years the overall shape is nounced sparked attacks on petrol consumers of gasoline but because management are problems. Few rate steady at 2.25% clear. stations, banks and police stations. there is no room in their budgets for believe the justification for increas- Proposed government spending The harsh reaction from security further cuts.” ing the prices of gasoline and oil. Morocco’s central bank main- of 4.8 trillion rials — converting to forces left more than 300 people They think the revenue saved [from tained its key interest rate at $115 billion or $40 billion at market dead, Amnesty International said. lowering subsidies] is going into 2.25%, saying borrowing costs or official rates — is a 25% increase “I’m not sure why they picked The budget aims to someone’s pockets,” he said. were in line with medium-term but a cut in real terms, given 36% November 15 but they’ve been Hence, restoring support from forecasts for inflation, growth and inflation. Options are constrained kicking the can down the road for a reduce the effects of poorer Iranians is not just about public finances. by an economic downturn, with the while,” said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, falling oil sales and strengthening and simplifying cash The Bank al-Maghrib said, International Monetary Fund (IMF) an economics professor at Virginia recession by raising transfers, urgent as that is. In his however, that it would implement estimating contraction of 9.5% this Tech. “I suspect prospects for gov- December 4 statement, Iranian measures to support entre- year after a 4.9% contraction in ernment revenues looked bleak and taxes, selling bonds Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali preneurs after Moroccan King 2018. hiking the gasoline [petrol] price and privatising state- Khamenei promised that anyone Mohammed VI called, in October, The budget aims to reduce the seemed like a good option. killed who had no role fomenting on commercial banks to make it effects of falling oil sales and “I also suspect Rohani did not owned companies. unrest would be treated as a “mar- easier for small and medium-sized recession by raising taxes, selling have his heart in the cash-transfer tyr” with their family paid “blood businesses to access loans. bonds and privatising state-owned part, which is why he announced The notion that poorer Iranians money as restitution.” Even families The bank has kept a freeze on companies (the total state budget, the one without the other, causing deserve a larger share of the coun- of those “killed while armed and in its benchmark interest rate since including state companies and popular anger.” try’s resources has an important clashes with security forces” would March 2016 “in view of the effect banks, comes to 19.8 trillion rials, Salehi-Isfahani has monitored political pedigree. The 1979 Islamic be shown “Islamic clemency… [and] it could have on lending and the $470 billion). Rohani also envisaged the situation for many months, revolutionaries stressed their com- compensated proportionally.” mobilisation of savings,” central a $5 billion loan from Russia. criticising the belief of many Rohani mitment to the mustazafin (‘the bank Governor Abdellatif Jouahri However, widespread protests advisers that cash transfers “foster dispossessed’), a Quranic term Gareth Smyth is a regular said at a news conference. following increased petrol prices beggars.” He calculates the pro- adopted by activist-philosopher contributor to The Arab Weekly. He November 15 highlight that Rohani’s posed switch from petrol subsidies Ali Shariati and then by revolution has reported from the Middle East (Reuters) challenge is as much social and to cash transfers would benefit the leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomei- since 1992. December 22, 2019 21 Economy Chinese firms looking for lucrative business opportunities in Morocco

Saad Guerraoui who aim to contribute to the digital transformation of the African market. “The CTW Morocco platform em- Casablanca bodies the historic Sino-Moroccan re- lationship that dates back more than hinese companies flocked to 60 years, making China the third- Casablanca in mid-December largest trading partner of Morocco,” for the third China Trade said Zahoor. C Week, organised with the MIE Jing Ning, the economic and com- Group. mercial adviser at the Chinese Embas- More than 150 Chinese exhibitors sy in Rabat, said the objective of the representing agriculture, renewable Belt and Road initiative was to bring energy, construction and the tea in- together the cultures of the countries. dustry took part in the 3-day fair. “We are proud of the development “Morocco-China trade relations experienced by the ties of Sino-Mo- grew stronger over the past few roccan friendship and cooperation years,” said MIE Group CEO David and we encourage Chinese compa- Wang at the opening ceremony. “We nies, which offer products adapted to are very grateful to Morocco for its the Moroccan market, to come to Mo- perpetual support for the Belt and rocco to establish new partnerships,” Road Initiative. Morocco is an impor- said Ning. tant hub for trade between China and Chinese investors expressed op- Africa.” timism about the potential of the Moroccan market because of its geographical location and measures More than implemented by Rabat, including agreements on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, visa waivers and the crea- Growing interest. Moroccan customers asking for information at the third China Trade Week in 150 tion of a trade zone in Fez. Casablanca. (Saad Guerraoui) Chinese exhibitors A large part of these measures was representing agriculture, taken after Moroccan King Moham- med VI’s visit to China in 2016 during Energy Company. Morocco. Morocco is the number one which warned that some Chinese tea renewable energy, which some 15 conventions, totalling “We sell all sorts of renewable importer of China’s green tea in the brands sold in Morocco contained construction and the tea hundreds of millions of dollars, were energy equipment. Morocco has world. We are looking to expand our traces of pesticides exceeding official signed between major Chinese and a great potential in terms of sun- business in such an important mar- limits. industry took part in the Moroccan firms. light as electricity bills here are ket,” Yang said. Yang said her company was in line 3-day fair. The event was an opportunity for quite high.” In 2018, Moroccans consumed with Moroccan customs regulations. Moroccan entrepreneurs to look for Ruby Yang, sales manager of Hu- almost 78,000 tonnes of Chinese Trade between Morocco and China Ahmed Zahoor, MIE Group vice- business deals with Chinese firms. nan Tea Group Company, knows tea, nearly one-quarter of China’s has increased the past two decades president of strategies and partner- “This is our first participation in the the Moroccan market well because total exports. from $1.7 billion to $5.4 billion in ships, said China Trade Week (CTW) trade fair. Our company is going glob- she has been dealing with it for nine New standards regulating the tea 2018, official statistics show. brought together Moroccan and al and seeking business opportunities years. imported from China went into ef- African professionals in the digital in Morocco,” said Wang Kun, deputy “We have been exporting Chinese fect in July following a report by the Saad Guerraoui is a contributor to landscape, as well as business leaders general manager of Longitech Smart tea and gunpowder since 2010 to National Office for Food and Safety, The Arab Weekly on Maghreb issues. strikes $1 billion privatisation deal with China

The Arab Weekly staff credit classification to high risk. the 2019 budget. Oman previously announced Omani ports and free zones will plans to privatise the land and mari- not be immune to the Omani Group London time transport sector over a 3-year strategy in enhancing their role in period, in line with the government’s the local economy despite difficul- he Omani Electricity Holding plans to diversify the economy and ties in improving their performance. Company, known as Nama increase revenues. A reduction in port activity has af- Group, said it completed Oman sold stakes in both electric- fected the country’s economy. The T the sale of a 49% stake in ity companies after receiving about sector is facing tremendous chal- the Oman Electricity Transmission 25 offers from foreign investors. lenges because of fluctuations in the Company to the China National Elec- Muscat was trying to address the fi- global economy and economic con- tricity Grid Corporation for about $1 nancial imbalances without resort- ditions internally. billion. ing to borrowing, which has become Data published by the Central The deal represents one of five costly because of the downgrade of Bank of Oman indicated that Oman’s privatisations planned by the Oman the country’s credit rating. economy slowed in the first half of Electricity Company in the coun- The Omani government is relying the year because of the decline in try’s efforts to strengthen its coffers, on the Omani International Group non-oil sector activity, reflecting the which have been depleted over the for Logistics — Asyad — which has as- difficulties the government will be past few years because of low oil sets of about $10 billion, to maximise facing in implementing reforms. prices. the financial returns of the state’s in- The data showed that Oman’s Oman Electricity Company vestments in ports, free trade zones, economy shrank 1.9% from January- spokesman Mansour al-Hinai said maritime and land transport compa- June. Low oil prices in recent years a deal to sell a stake in the Muscat nies and logistic services. affected Oman’s financial situation Electricity Transmission Company Asyad is seeking to privatise com- but the economic downturn this was scheduled for the second quar- panies, including Oman Shipping, year stems from the slowdown in ter of next year. He said Nama had which reports good results and plans non-oil industrial activities and the received 14 non-binding offers to in- to add five ships to its fleet. By 2022, services sector. vest in the company. the company’s fleet will stand at 72 The Central Bank reported that ships. the non-oil sector shrank 3.4% dur- The oil industry contributes Muscat is looking to the private ing the first half of this year. The oil sector to invest in projects in the and gas sector grew 2.1% during the about 44% of GDP but transport sector but this is contin- same period. Domestic oil and gas Muscat aims to reduce this gent on the government’s restruc- production increased 1.5% and 5.6%, share to 22% by 2020 turing of the sector. respectively. through investments The Omani government owns The oil industry contributes totalling $106 billion. more than 60 companies but, be- about 44% of GDP but Muscat cause it has fewer energy and oil aims to reduce this share to 22% Oman has fewer energy reserves reserves than its neighbours, it is by 2020 through investments and smaller production than its exposed to greater financial risks, totalling $106 billion. wealthy neighbours. Muscat ex- which threaten the financing of so- Despite Oman’s return to financial pects a budget deficit of around cial and job-creation programmes. markets with the sale of $3 billion in $7.3 billion, equivalent to 9% of In recent years, the Omani govern- bonds last July, Muscat’s financial GDP, this year. ment planned to sell state-owned as- position remains weak. The Omani government collected sets to address a budget deficit that Fitch Ratings said Oman’s eco- $3 billion from global bond mar- has accumulated after the downfall nomic growth was expected to be kets, confirming interest by global of oil prices since mid-2014. The 1.8% this year because of the coun- financial markets despite three rat- government expects the deficit to try’s commitment to the OPEC+ Time to upgrade. Technicians fix the electricity power in Salalah, ing agencies having reduced Oman’s reach $7.3 billion (9% of GDP) in agreement to reduce oil production. Oman. (AP) 22 December 22, 2019 Society Women Tunisian women build momentum in fight against sexual violence

Special Correspondent “The idea for the mobilisation de- veloped over time and we created Falgatna, an independent feminist Tunis and intersectional platform to de- nounce violence,” said Amal bint hile Tunisia is often Nadia, one of the group’s organis- hailed as a pioneer for ers. women’s rights, vio- “The platform is independent W lence against women in relation to all existing organisa- remains a widespread problem in tions and initiatives and it is with- the country, activists leading a cam- out leadership. We are also all vol- paign against harassment and abuse unteers and we rely essentially on said. funding provided by members of Tunisian women raised their the movement,” she explained. voices against sexual assault and “In this regard, we hope for Fal- harassment as part of the #EnaZeda gatna to remain as independent as (MeToo) movement, collecting hun- much as possible from donors, who dreds of testimonies from victims usually interfere in the perspectives and leading demonstrations in Tu- of such projects.” nis. Since Tunisia’s 2011 uprising, The campaign began in October, feminists’ efforts to address vio- when photographs of a political lence against women have gained candidate allegedly masturbating momentum but there is a long way outside of a high school went viral to go to change the culture, they on social media. The photo, taken said. by a girl who said she was har- “A sensitive issue such as vio- assed by the prospective politician, lence against women does not ap- sparked uproar and led others to pear overnight,” said Ksiksi. “I think speak out about their experiences. violence has been rooted in our Outrage grew after the man was society as a result of the autocracy elected to parliament and given that prevailed during the era of for- immunity, meaning no charges can mer President Zine el-Abidine Ben A cry for justice. Tunisian women protest outside the government headquarters in Tunis, chanting a (Youssef Abdellah Ben Ammar) likely be filed against him until his Ali — an autocracy that generated Chilean feminist song titled “The rapist is you!” term expires. cultural phenomena like individu- alism and indifference.” the general public.” education and awareness, but so far there. To prove the aggression, the “After the revolution, I believe In July 2017, Tunisian lawmakers we have seen nothing, except for a victim needs to go to a public hospi- Victims of sexual violence people have become more daring passed legislation aimed at elimi- meagre decision to include sexual tal and there they must wait for long continue to face numerous in the absence of the fear factor cre- nating violence against women. The education in school curriculum.” hours. To cut it short, this could obstacles from law ated by the old regime. Today, in law prohibited physical, economic “The concern here is that sexual amount to a moral and emotional enforcement and the fact, there’s no iron fist anymore to and psychological abuse against education does not necessarily violence that adds to the pain of the judicial system. punish those involved in violence women and outlawed public har- mean gender education or raising victim.” or those encouraging violence,” she assment. It scrapped a loophole that awareness about rights and individ- Bint Nadia, Ksiksi and others On December 14, approximately said. allowed rapists to avoid jail by mar- ual freedoms,” she added. committed to ensuring Tunisia’s 100 women protested outside the Ksiksi added that activists’ work rying their victims. Victims of sexual violence contin- hard-won legislation translates to government headquarters in Tunis, has been bolstered by Tunisia’s in- Two-and-a-half years later, how- ue to face numerous obstacles from real improvement in women’s lives chanting a Chilean feminist song ti- creased “margin of freedom” after ever, activists say the law has not law enforcement and the judicial hope that movements Falgatna and tled “The rapist is you!” the revolution, as well as techno- been effectively implemented and system, bint Nadia said. #EnaZeda can help move forward One participant, Khawla Ksiksi, logical advances that allow them to failed to deliver its declared objec- “Accessing justice in Tunisia is dif- the cause of women’s rights. said the event made her “feel both easily link to the rest of the world tives. ficult. To file a complaint against “I hope Falgatna will gain mo- brave and safe at the same time.” “Today, we have found out about “(The 2017 legislation) was a great violence, you must find a lawyer, mentum as a mobilisation force that “For the first time, I felt I was not new concepts such as mental shock leap forward but it is not as revolu- pay the fees, go to a police station will raise awareness about violence alone,” she said. that allowed us to identify and de- tionary as it was branded when it because when you contact the po- against women and harassment, The event was organised by a new lineate some crimes such as harass- was passed” said bint Nadia. lice, they don’t necessarily move including the lasting effect on vic- feminist group “Falgatna” (We’re ment and gender-based violence,” “If we are to compare it with oth- to the scene of the aggression,” she tims,” said Ksiksi. Fed Up), which said it prides itself she said. “In the past, we didn’t er legislation in the MENA region, said. “Now and then, officers at a “I’d also love the campaign to on being “an independent, feminist, really know how to behave with the law actually constitutes an ad- police station reject the complaint act as a force to exert pressure on citizenry movement that aims to re- victims. The more we understand, vance. However, when this law was and rather redirect the victim to the sexist and misogynistic politicians sist patriarchy, discrimination and the more we see the failures of the approved, we heard much about Brigade for the Eradication of Vio- while providing a space for women violence against women, assigned system at hand and we double our the various mechanisms to activate lence Against Women and Children. to shed light on some key concepts at birth or identifying as women.” efforts to expose these failures to it and a whole strategy to work on “The misfortune does not stop and notions.” Interview Saudi woman writer sees social change as ‘desperately needed’

and a vital ambassador for a that have taken place and touched on ensuring freedom of opinion.” hibernation current, proved to be society’s identity and its indig- women’s lives and empowered “At the level of ‘opinion,’ the a failed project . enous culture, not to mention them to serve their society weakness of the local press is not “We can also cite the decision to Zaki al-Soudeir their intrinsic economic value in economically, culturally and the result of the lack of freedom allow women to drive. Most of terms of revenues and creating humanly have a very big role to of expression, as some claim, but those who opposed that project new employment opportunities play in changing the narrow the result of the lack of financial ended up getting driver’s licences audi writer Halima for young people, she said. mindset and deficient view of a resources from which these for their wives and daughters. Mudhaffar does not hide “We do have significant cultural segment of society that still papers suffer,” Mudhaffar “What we are experiencing her delight with the heritage and well-known figures considers women as followers.” explained. today is happening with the significant transforma- in literature, theatre, music and “Freedom of expression is an consent and support of the Saudis tion that Saudi Arabia is criticism,” Mudhaffar said. elastic term,” Mudhaffar said. themselves because these were experiencing in cultural, Mudhaffar classifies herself as “Even major newspapers of the Saudi writer decisions that answer their needs Ssocial, legal and economic part of the middle generation of world place limits on it. Halima Mudhaffar and affect the quality of their levels. writers and artists. She said she is “As far as the local Saudi press is lives. She said she is particularly biased in favour of the younger concerned, I think I’m quite “As to those who are bemoaning happy with developments in generation but also loyal to the familiar with it since I worked in “We have to pay attention to the Revivalist era, they are a older generation. the press for years before I minority who had been taking culture and with the attention creations by new talents and given to the arts, especially after a “We have to pay attention to decided in 2007 to devote my full advantage of that era for their support them.” long period of distortion by creations by new talents and time to writing my columns in own personal gains. Today, the extremist ideologies. support them but we must not addition to my government job,” law has put an end to their “Since the launch of Vision marginalise the previous genera- she said. “I wrote social and She said the Saudis have turned excesses.” 2030, we have been in a stage of tion of creators on account that cultural columns and I criticised the page of the Revivalist current Regarding the new-old social developing and building a they had their chance,” she senior officials and their minis- and stand behind the clear official conflict between the conservative cultural future,” Mudhaffar said. added. tries, especially the Revivalist position against extremist Revivalist current and the liberal She pointed out that the arts are Mudhaffar said Saudi women current in those ministries. ideology contaminated with modernist trend, Mudhaffar said neither superfluous nor only for have gone beyond waiting for the “We cannot forget the incident Muslim Brotherhood ideology. Saudi society promotes an entertainment purposes. When gender barrier to come down and, of burning the Al-Jouf Literary She said Saudi society is heading authentic culture and aspires to societies deal with theatre, music because of empowering them as Club by the Revivalists because of to be more effective and more modern and sophisticated life so and the arts in general, as they full citizens, they have moved to my writings and, yet, I have never attached to the civil state. there is room for everybody. would with physics, medicine and the stage of production and been arrested for my writings and “Change is desperately needed “Everybody has the right to chemistry, they build long-stand- building a legacy. no one has interfered in what I because time does not stop express his opinion ethically and ing and strong civilisations. “Change in social culture starts write. changing the world around us,” responsibly,” she said. That’s because the arts are a with organisational legal change,” “In all honesty, I find the Saudi Mudhaffar said. “The Revivalist wheel for human development she said. “These vital changes leadership open-minded and keen current, which I consider rather a Zaki al-Soudeir is a Saudi writer. December 22, 2019 23 Culture Books Tunisian book fair bridges gap between publishers, readers

Roua Khlifi gions. Children will have a special Nurturing programme as they are the future.” readers’ The fair awarded various prizes, interest. Tunis including awards for Best Female A visitor Writer and Best Writer Under 35 examines books he second National Exhibi- Years. Panels to discuss contempo- during the tion of the Tunisian Book rary issues were on the agenda. second National kicked off December 19, in- Under the banner “The Book is Exhibition of T viting bookworms, writers, Life,” the festival sends a message the Tunisian publishers and everyday Tunisians that reading should be a priority for Book, to enjoy a large selection of national everyone. December 20. works and literary events. “The slogan definitely reflects (National Exhibi- Including classic Tunisian litera- on a variety of issues that books tion of the Tunisian ture and the latest publications, the can address… A book helps read- Book) fair featured 15,000 titles from all ers manage their lives, to build the genres and some 70 Tunisian pub- personalities of children and teens,” lishers. The festival began as an said Slaheddine Lahmadi, president initiative by the Union of Tunisian of the Union of Tunisian Writers. Publishers to promote literary pro- “Books are also what our coun- ductions, particularly from Tunisia. try needs in the current situation “All festivals and arts are noble of political division and deteriorat- but this festival remains one of the ing values. Books build society and noblest festivals, for it promotes without books we can’t make pro- books,” said festival director Imen gress.” Boukhobza. “It is part of the Min- Lahmadi stressed how the fair istry of Culture’s policy to promote was uniquely dedicated to Tunisian creativity and artistic expression, books and their history, giving Tu- ons and hospitals. from the exchange. We learn from books compete on the inferential especially that these are part of the nisian writers a needed platform to “This has been a concern for us them and they learn from us. level in the Arab world.” values of freedom of expression and showcase their work. as directors of the festival and it “The talks will provide hope and He added: “We have publishers thought that are guaranteed by the “The book of Tunisia is a book was fruitful as we received encour- energy and the writers will have who distribute books outside of Tu- constitution.” that has an identity and Tunisian agement from the ministries,” said deep insight into the lives and nisia successfully. In this context, writers have a long, rich history,” Boukhobza. “It will consist of three circumstances of prisons and pa- we devoted a professional work- Lahmadi said. “It is an opportunity meetings in prisons to discuss is- tients.” shop for these issues. As publishers, Under the banner “The to learn about the past of Tunisian sues that prisoners can relate to.” Maalej said the fair has become we struggle with many issues like Book is Life,” the festival literature and also the new releases President of the Union of Publish- an important part of Tunisia’s cul- the lack of markets for books, which sends a message that of Tunisian writers to encourage ers Mohamed Salah Maalej said the tural life, with some 200,000 visi- is why fairs like this event play an reading should be a and promote them. initiative could play an important tors taking part last year. It allowed important role in the absence of li- priority for everyone. “If we want to help our country role in sending a message of support for a partnership between publish- braries in the capital and in the re- develop, we need to promote books to those in difficult circumstances. ers and writers to promote Tunisian gions.” She added: “It aims to create a and literature. We need to set an ex- “The book helps give life for pa- books. The fair included workshops for space for an exchange between Tu- ample even on the Arab level. We tients in the hospital,” said Lah- “The presence of 70 publishers children, as well as panels on cin- nisian readers and writers where hear of all these statistics about the madi. “Books are therapy to help in Tunisia is important because ema and literature featuring promi- both can explore the newest Tuni- low numbers of readers in the Arab with many illnesses. Also, hosting they are publishing and are produc- nent writers from around Tunisia. sian writings. It is also an opportu- world. This should be a chance to literary meetings in prisons will tive,” said Maalej. “Some publishing nity to encourage reading among set an example.” give hope to them and this time we houses publish 150 books per year. Roua Khlifi is a regular Travel youth. There are also new activities In addition to the fair and panels, will have writers in prisons and hos- Such a partnership between writ- and Culture contributor to and literary panels in different re- the event includes outreach to pris- pitals to talk to them and to benefit ers and publishers helps Tunisian The Arab Weekly. Interview Should Arab novels carry political agendas?

Abu Golayyel, speaking to The atmosphere and customs. He did Arab Weekly, said that Arab that in his novels and short stories novelists should replace political “Retired Thieves,” “Folding the Mustafa Abid issues with personal experiences Tents,” “The Rise and Fall of Saad because “stripping one’s self is the Sheen.” best defence against the prevailing In his latest novel, specifically, he late Egyptian waves of extremism and intoler- not only does Abu Golayyel Writing without pride or shame. Egyptian novelist Hamdi Abu novelist Naguib ance.” portray scenes from the life of a Golayyel. (Al Arab) Mahfouz wondered: He stressed that the novel is not character called Saad Sheen, a “Isn’t truth stranger the expression of a lofty meaning Bedouin from the eastern desert of than fiction?” Egyptian or morality or of politics or a Libya and the western desert of to see, which makes the novel plights of Arab societies were, writer Tawfiq al-Hakim cause. Some novelists intention- Egypt who migrates to the Sabha, valid for all times and places. Abu politically, the independence Twrote that he no longer could ally place political ideas in their Libya, after the announcement by Golayyel cited the example of revolutions led by the nationalist distinguish the boundaries novels and this constitutes a crime Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi American writer Ernest Heming- liberation movements and, between the world of truth and the against the novel. “Drafting the that citizenship will be granted to way and his novel “A Movable culturally, the application of world of fiction, as many current novel into the service of a cause, the Saad Sheen Bedouins of Egypt, Feast,” which recounts the modernity. events were fantasy decades ago. any cause, is incompatible with he also uses the authentic dialect author’s experience in Paris during “The national liberation US writer Sidney Harris went the greatness of this art form,” Abu of the Bedouins and songs from the 1920s. movements expelled foreign even further when he said: “The Golayyel said. their folklore. In the Arab world, Abu Golayyel colonialism and established unfair reason that truth is stranger than He said the Arabic novel, since Abu Golayyel said he did not said the best example of a reality authoritarian regimes in most fiction is that fiction has to have a the time of Mahfouz, has been intentionally target the desert or novel is Suleyman Fayyad’s “The countries while modernity had rational thread running through it politically exploited. Human the Bedouins but he was seeking Book of Gossip,” a revealing work demolished the structures of the in order to be believable, whereas characters and even animals are to write about his own experience about the nature of Egypt’s elite native cultures, which led socie- reality may be totally irrational.” used to express the writers’ as an Arab nomad who had and intellectuals, such as Amal ties to fall prey to Salafi religious This is why Egyptian novelist political ideas. migrated to Cairo. Dunqul and Naguib Sorour, all of movements,” he said. Hamdi Abu Golayyel suggested His premise is that reality is whom were amazing literary Abu Golayyel explained that that people should write about Egyptian novelist stronger, richer and more fascinat- figures. texts written by the pioneers of their lives to present the world Hamdi Abu Golayyel ing than fiction because human The Egyptian novelist pointed Arab modernity died during their with stories worthy of immortality experience is much deeper than out that some confuse the subjec- lifetimes. That was the case of the because people expect reality, not “Drafting the novel into the novelists’ imagination. He tive experience with the literature poetry of Adonis or the books of fiction. This is also why he said the service of a cause, any cause, emphasised the one novelist who of confessions. What he meant by Edwar al-Kharrat. The modernists’ Arab world is eager for new literary is incompatible with the can be said to have come closest to “confession” genre was not the claim that native cultures had to pioneers to express their own greatness of this art form.” this ideal is Colombian writer scandalous type but the act of be overthrown was no longer experiences, pouring out their Gabriel Garcia Marquez when he relating reality for readers who valid. “If you had an old wall, leave own nectar, sharing their “egos” said: “I did not write anything I did don’t know it to enjoy. it till it crumbles by itself; that’s with the world, without precon- He said those who wish to not see.” Among reservations voiced by better,” he said. ception or moralisation. promote a political idea or Abu Golayyel reiterated his Abu Golayyel was concerning the He stressed his disbelief in the Abu Golayyel represents a programme should create a party, belief that a writer should write language he uses in his work. He revolutions of the “Arab spring,” unique experience in Arab publish a pamphlet, write an about his own experiences, about relies on colloquial Egyptian despite his participation in the literature, an experience inspired editorial, make a tirade, organise a everything he went through and Arabic in books and said that January 25, 2011, uprising in Cairo. by the spirit of the desert and demonstration or go on strike but place himself as the hero of his resorting to dialects should not be He said he particularly resented which presents Arab Bedouin life they should stay away from the novels. To do that, the novelist perceived as weakness or intoler- the hijacking of the revolution by in an atypical manner. His work novel. should not select some events and ance. He asserts that colloquial fanatical religious currents that makes the reader cling to his or her In his own work, Abu Golayyel hide others. He should be truthful, Egyptian Arabic has become tried to drive society 15 centuries Arab heritage and refuse to focuses on drawing a portrait of writing without pride or shame. widely accepted and understood backward. abandon it to modernity or the Bedouin society and convey- A great novelist is one who by a large segment of Arab society. Salafism. ing the charm of its characters, presents his life bare for everyone Abu Golayyel said the greatest Mustafa Abid is an Egyptian writer. 24 December 22, 2019 Christmas in Lebanon www.thearabweekly.com

Beirut Christmas carolling Agenda Tunis: Through December 29 comes with a revolutionary twist The second national Tunisian Book Fair takes place at the City of Culture in Tunis. Samar Kadi Beirut: Through January 6 Beirut Organised by the Sursock Museum hile the drums of the with the support of the Musee na- popular anti-govern- tional Picasso-Paris in the frame- ment rebellion were work of Picasso-Mediterranee, “Pi- W beating in Beirut’s casso et la famille” explores Pablo streets during violent clashes in Picasso’s relationship to the notion recent days, Christmas carols and of the family. Bringing together Muslim Sufi hymns were sung in drawings, etchings, paintings and churches for the annual Beirut sculptures, the exhibition spans 77 Chants Festival. years of artistic creation. The pre-Christmas event, with 28 free concerts over December 1-23, Dubai: offered the public a much-needed Through April 4 break from the pressures of the political and socio-economic cri- Sponsored by the Dubai Culture sis gripping Lebanon as attendees and Arts Authority, the tenth Live indulged in peaceful and spiritual, Our Heritage Festival is organised yet revolutionary, musical perfor- on the theme “An Eye on Emirati mances. Heritage” and invites visitors to “We believe that music should be better understand the legacy and free for all, as we believe in toler- customs of the people of Dubai. ance and coexistence among differ- Activities include traditional ent cultures and religions because crafts, national folk songs and we believe in unity,” said Micheline heritage workshops. Abi Samra, founder of Beirut Chants Festival. Tozeur: “Definitely the intercultural Is- December 25-28 lamic-Christian aspect is always present in the festival, and every The Tozeur International Oasis year it is more pronounced and more Festival, in southern Tunisia, will feature art exhibitions and musical sophisticated. Quranic chants are Sheikh Ahmad Hawili (L) and soprano performances along with displays being chanted in churches at the Ghada Shbeir. (Beirut Chants Festival) same time as Christmas carols to of local food and traditional crafts. encourage tolerance and mutual ac- Artists from various countries will ceptance and understanding and to ten to beautiful music,” Abi Samra perform and interact with visitors. get to know each other better,” Abi said. Samra said. Beirut Chants is not just about Dubai: Since the festival was founded 12 bringing culture to the masses and January 5-February 16 years ago, Lebanon has united each bonding over beautiful music; it is December for concerts in that very also about voicing a powerful mes- This year’s Carpet Oasis takes spirit, using culture and music to sage. place at Mina Rashid Marina. The exhibition brings together shop- spread a message of hope for the One of the most acclaimed con- pers, collectors and retailers from country. This year it is even more certs was a religious event that com- all over the world. Entertainment pronounced with the anti-govern- bined Quranic singing by Muslim activities and games are scheduled ment rebellion that united protest- cleric Sheikh Ahmad Hawili and so- during the exhibition. ers across Lebanon’s religions and prano Ghada Shbeir at the Saint Jo- regions. seph Church in downtown Beirut. Muscat: Sheikh Hawili, a Lebanese Sufi January 16-February 15 singer, and Shbeir, who has a doctor- Beirut Chants is not just ate in Syriac chants, the oldest form The annual Muscat Festival in about bringing culture to of Christian singing, enchanted the Oman will feature nightly fire- the masses and bonding audience. works, traditional Omani music over beautiful music; it is “I found it unique and mesmeris- performances, local cuisine, craft also about voicing a ing,” said audience member Randa displays, exhibitions from regional Imad. “The fact that there are a cleric powerful message. countries and traditional dancing. and a vocalist singing lyrics from the A riot police officer stands next of a Christmas tree during a protest Quran and the Bible, sometimes as a near the Parliament Square in downtown Beirut, December 14. (AP) Marrakech: The concerts draw thousands of duo or alternately, was fascinating. January 26 people to churches around Beirut The church was packed. The atmos- every night for one or two hours of phere was great. They even placed The revolutionary mood prevail- Hall at the American University of More than 8,000 runners from all music — some classical, some reli- seats in the alleys to accommodate ing in Lebanon affected this year’s Beirut (AUB), where the concert took over the world will be racing in the gious and some unexpected, such the crowd.” festival, intertwining with the place. Marrakech International Marathon as the revolutionary and nationalis- Beirut Chants began in 2007 when Christmas spirit. “What I lived in that particular in Morocco. Many international tic songs that marked some of this Abi Samra said she wanted Members of the rebellious young concert I haven’t lived for 12 years sports personalities will partici- year’s concerts. to make use of the beauti- generation seeking change while ex- since Beirut Chants started. The na- pate in the race while various tour- “This year, it is a miracle that we fully renovated churches pressing their attachment to Leba- tional mood and the ambiance were istic activities and street shows are still going on. I myself cannot be- in Beirut and thought to non were well-served by Lebanese already there… Emotions were high. take place during the event. lieve it when I look at the churches bring life to those spaces musician, composer and pianist Guy People sang along and cried,” Abi and I see that every single night to “feel that the com- Manoukian, accompanying al Fayha Samra said. Beirut: crowds are more numerous with dif- munity is participating choir, a group of 100 singers from all The performance by an ensemble February 18-March 22 ferent ages, different backgrounds and living the Christmas denominations. National and patri- from the Balamand University Choir and yet they are one when they lis- spirit in a beautiful way.” otic songs inflamed the Assembly and soprano Reem Deeb at the As- Al Bustan International Festival sembly Hall was another highlight of of Music and the Performing Arts the festival. is a musical celebration that takes Deeb presented a surprise song place at various venues in Beirut that sounded as a perfect contribu- and promotes music from all over tion to the revolutionary situation. the world. The festival includes Some of the lyrics translate as fol- orchestral concerts, choral music, lows: “In times of pain and poverty, opera and dance performances. Beirut cries for people’s hunger and people’s eyes weep for people’s thirst, yet, the Christmas spirit gives Zammour, Tunisia: people back their dignity and faith.” March 19-22 An AUB student who attended the performance said the surprise The fourth Zammour Trekking anthem was “a beautiful addition will take place in a Berber village to the festival, especially in times of in the Tunisian Sahara over four hopelessness.” days and three nights. Visitors The people who gave standing can camp in Bedouin tents, trek ovations at the concerts understood or bike in the village, visit moun- the message of love and tolerance tains, attend folklore parties and enjoy traditional food. and the big hope that the differ- ences in the Lebanese society are its We welcome submissions of strengths, Abi Samra said. calendar items related to “We should work on more projects cultural events of interest to that make us all one nation,” she travellers in the Middle East added. and North Africa. Lebanon has been rocked by un- precedented popular protests over Please send tips to: Lebanese visitors gather around a Christmas tree made of discarded plastic water bottles in the official mismanagement and corrup- [email protected] northern coastal town of Chekka, December 15. (AFP) tion since October 17.