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European Insurance – an Analyst’S View

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European Insurance – an Analyst’S View European insurance – an analyst’s view September 2018 Sami Taipalus (Executive Director) Goldman Sachs International 44-20-7051-7237 [email protected] Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Many investors see insurance as a black box European insurance – an analyst’s view Insurer Premiums + capital ? Global Investment Research 2 Presentation overview European insurance – an analyst’s view Equity markets – what you need to know Sector themes – opportunities and challenges Case studies Conclusions Global Investment Research 3 The traditional view of the market has limitations Equity markets – all you need to know Equity value = NPV of cash flows The traditional view< has some practical limitations Cash flows based on consensus IFRS E3S and book value metrics EPS/DPS expectations are not “economic” Risks are reflected in the cost of The market does not wait around for equity changes in consensus estimates Global Investment Research 4 SourceDGoldman Datastream,SachsGlobal Investment Indexed 12-month forward consensus netincome consensusforward 12-month Indexed 100 120 140 160 180 60 80 ene.-10 ul.-10 Allianz ene.-11 7markets Equity to know need all you The market moves fasterthan accounting profits ul.-11 ene.-12 ul.-12 ene.-10 AAA ul.-10 ene.-14 Research ul.-14 ene.-15 Generali ul.-15 ene.-16 ul.-16 ene.-1. Burich ul.-1. ene.-18 ul.-18 Share price volatility price Share 10 15 20 25 0 5 ene.-10 ul.-10 ene.-11 ul.-11 Average standarddeviation forthe period TrailingSAI3 C0-day standard deviation ene.-12 ul.-12 ene.-10 ul.-10 Global Investment Research Investment Global ene.-14 ul.-14 ene.-15 ul.-15 ene.-16 ul.-16 ene.-1. ul.-1. ene.-18 ul.-18 5 An economic view of equity value Equity markets 7 all you need to know Economic net asset value Economic profits Risk spread Return on risk Cost of liabilities Expected surplus Cost of risk held on balance sheet Return in excess of the cost of risk Return commensurate with the cost of risk Recognised on expectation Recognised on emergence IFRS earnings are a mix of economic profits and risk spreads -E not all IFRS profits are the same SourceD Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global Investment Research 6 Fey themes in European insurance Fey sector themes - challenges G opportunities Macro themes Micro themes Low growth ,ew technology Low interest rates 2GA/simplification Shifting demographics Regulation 3olitical uncertainty Capital returns In summary… the market environment is seen as challenging but with some potential opportunities Global Investment Research . Iow will new technology affect the industry5 Fey sector themes 7 new technology Clear conclusions ncertainties 3otential for operational improvements Is there risk of disruption5 Risk exposures will change Iow will legacy issues be resolved5 Insurers that do not adapt will fail Who will be the main beneficiaries5 Global Investment Research 8 Re-modelling the insurance value chain Fey sector themes 7 new technology Technology will place high specially in process demands on insurers< heavy areas Insurance value chain Traditional Sales W Admin Claims AM Risk Insurer Disaggregated Sales W Admin Claims AM Risk Insurer eg. PCW eg. )uidewire eg. ,lackrock eg. Reins/ILS Compressed Sales Claims Admin W Risk Risk M)A Reinsurer A narrower focus may be The main beneficiaries helpful may not be insurers SourceD Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global Investment Research C A modern UF motor insurer Case study 7 new technology 3rice comparison sales UF motor insurance distribution is dominated by price comparison websites 3remium Commission UF motor insurer Underwriting, claims, admin 22L retainedM 22L The insurer makes money at a low price point due Risk(only to operational and capital efficiency Commission Reinsurers Ience, the insurer is able to deliver economic profitability in a competitive market SourceD Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global Investment Research 10 Ageing populations Fey sector themes - demographics Rising life expectancy and lower birth rates have Life expectancy in France (years at birthM transformed developed world demographics 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 Men Women ,ew solutions are needed across the protection and 50 savings landscape< 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Estimated retirement savings gap (NtnM 450 400 350 300 250 and legacy liabilities need to be managed 200 150 100 50 0 2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 UK India China US Global SourceD I,ED, 2ercer, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global Investment Research 11 A UF bulk annuity writer Case study 7 demographics Consultant Defined benefit pension obligations weigh on corporate Advice balance sheet, particularly in the UF Fees The bulk annuity writer assumes liabilities against an DO pension scheme upfront payment 3remium, liabilities G risk Iowever, what is discounted in pricing5 What drives Oulk annuity writer capital generation5 Longevity risk ,uffer 2-42 New E8uity 2-82 business strain SCR 3-122 Reinsurer Risk Margin .-112 Net Premium Received ,est Estimate Liabilities Solvency II Liability Assets SourceD Rothesay Life, Goldman Sachs Investment Research Global Investment Research 12 3rofits create value, not investment themes European insurance company valuations European insuranceD 3/E ratio (x, 201C P/E, GS estimatesM 28 Iigh proportion Iigh proportion "risk 24 economic profits spreads" 20 16 12 8 4 0 SourceD Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global Investment Research 10 Capital returns increasingly in focus Fey sector themes 7 capital returns Given the lack of growth, capital returns are At year-end 201., 20 insurers in our coverage key to the insurance value proposition were in or close to an excess capital position< but only three returned excess capital To understand dividend capacity we need to look beyond solvency and earnings metrics Iolding company Capital returns alone will not deliver value for Solvency coverage Debt capacity shareholders Unencumbered liquidity SourceD Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global Investment Research 14 Capital returns alone do not create value European insurance company valuations European insuranceD 3/E ratio (x, 201CeM vs. dividend yield (L, 2018eM 25 Low payout, high proportion economic profit Tryg 20 SJP Gjensidige 15 Admiral Sampo Helvetia SCOR Baloise Hannover Re NN Hastings Allianz Zurich Standard Life 10 RSA Ageas Swiss Re Munich Re L&G Direct Line ASR Axa Aegon Generali Aviva 5 Iigh payout, high proportion risk spread 0 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% SourceD Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global Investment Research 15 Disclosures 7 moving in the right direction Communicating insurance If the market is assessing insurers on an economic basis, surely disclosure should be economic5 IFRS1. moves economic disclosure in the right direction but is it more informative than Solvency II5 Deterministic-based approach Market-based approach Re8uired US GAA3 / disclosure local GAA3 IFRS 4 Solvency II IFRS 1. Optional Traditional European 2arket disclosure Embedded Embedded Consistent Value Value Embedded Value SourceD Goldman Sachs Investment Research Global Investment Research 16 Conclusions Iow insurers create value for investors Insurance is a black box for most investors but the market as a whole understands it quite well There are no obvious tailwinds but plenty of challenges To create value for investors insurers need to offer economic profits or access to underwriting risks Global Investment Research 1. ;&A 18 Disclosure Appendix September 25, 2018 Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the ob ectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FI,RA in the U.S. 1C Disclosure Appendix Reg AC I, Sami Taipalus, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal view about the sub ect company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman SachsR Global Investment Research division. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman SachsR Global Investment Research division. )S Factor Profile The Goldman Sachs Factor 3rofile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market
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