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Company Report EQ EQUITY RESEA RC H Ageas August 2015 Company results 5 August 2015 Ageas Buy (mai ntai ned) Capitalising on reassurance on cash flows Price (04/08/15) They message on capital and cash flow are very reassuring; dividends and €38.50 holding expenses are well covered from up-streamed dividends of the Target price (12-mth) business units. We stick to our €1.65 DPS for FY15F, but a surprise seems €43.00 (previously €41.00) possible. The message on Asia continues to remain positive. We have Forecast total return 16.0% increased the value of Asian operations in our SOTP: TP raised to €43.0. BUY. Solid 2Q15 result: The net insurance profit show ed a beat at €306m versus our forecast at Insurance €280m (incl. a one-off gain of €100m from Taiping Life). In Belgium net profit w as ahead of our Belgium forecast at €102m (INGF 92m), driven by non-life. Asia recorded another strong quarter, w ith Bloomberg: AGS BB reported profit at €154m; excluding the one-off gain in China, still a beat at c.€54m (INGF Reuters: AGES.BR €48m and 1Q: €58m). Adjusted for FX Asian earnings grow th remains very sound. Non-life profit show ed a clear beat (€74m vs INGF €49m) driven by Belgium and CEU. The 2Q15 Share data combined ratio w as a strong 94%, adjusted for prior year reserve releases 99.5% (in line). Av g daily volume (3-mth) 641,246 Guidance w as unchanged for a COR below 97% FY15. Free f loat (%) 94.5 New versus old forecasts (€m) Market cap (€m) 8,078.9 Net debt (1F, €m) FY15F FY16F F Y17F Enterprise v alue (1F, €m) New Old %ch New Old %ch New Old %ch Div idend yield (1F, %) 4.3 Belgium 384 374 3 399 385 4 407 393 4 Source: Company data, ING estimates UK 69 75 -8 80 83 -4 91 93 -3 CE 99 91 9 95 78 22 100 82 21 Share price performance Asia 317 215 48 246 242 1 288 276 4 General* (63) 14 -547 (56) (38) 47 (56) (38) 47 40 Net profit 811 771 5 763 749 2 829 806 3 o/w Insurance profit 869 755 15 819 788 4 885 848 4 35 EPS (€) 3.72 3.52 6 3.50 3.43 2 3.81 3.69 3 30 DPS (€) 1.65 1.65 0 1.80 1.80 0 1.90 1.90 0 25 Source: ING estimates *) we have not included book gains on purchases of CASHES as timing is difficult 20 15 Capital and cash flows reassuring messages: 1H15 cash flow from operations w ere €381m 10 (incl. €15m from RPI) and from capital restructuring €125m or €506m. Our previous forecast was 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 total dividend upstream for FY15 of €527m; we now see €594m. Management repeated that the Price full year dividend is based on a pay-out of 40-50% of insurance profit, including the €100m BEL 20 (rebased) exceptional gain in Asia. For now we keep our DPS forecast for FY15 unchanged at €1.65 (FY14: Source: ING €1.55), but this could surprise on the upside. Ageas announced a new share buyback of €250m (INGF €200-250m) in line w ith the previous programme. Ageas did not comment on speculation about the potential sale of Hong Kong (De Tijd: value indicated c.€1bn). We w ould regard a potential sale as a positive at this valuation level. Ageas is setting up an internal reinsurance company based in the Netherlands (invested €100m), as the location chosen is for tax reasons (DTAs). Retention of premiums w ill thus rise over time and w e believe there are S2 benefits. Cash and free cash flow yield (Єm) 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Holding f ree cash flow yield (%) 8.2 8.3 9.5 10.5 Holding free cash flow yield (%) ex net cash 10.2 10.4 11.9 13.2 Share buy back program 250 250 250 250 Total cash & liquid assets* 1,912 1,775 1,567 1,315 % market capitalization 22 20 18 15 Source: ING estimates *) we assume €100m cash-out related to CASHES over 2015-16F BUY r ating maintained, TP raised to €43.0 (from €41.0). In our view the results show that the Asian angle that w e have highlighted before remains overlooked in the investment case. In our SOTP w e have raised valuation of Asian activities from €2.2bn to €2.9bn. If w e would value Albert Ploegh, CEFA the Asian activities at transactions multiples w e reach over €5bn. Moreover, the cash flow Amsterdam +31 20 563 8748 [email protected] profile remains supportive for capital returns to shareholders, also demonstrated by the new share buyback programme of €250m (c.3% of market capitalisation). research.ing.com SEE THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & ANALYST CERTIFICATION1 Ageas August 2015 Valuation: TP set at €43.0 (from €41 .0) (€m) Financials P/B (x) PER (x) Fair PS Year end Dec (€m) 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 1H15 2016F value (€) Income statement Belgium (100%) 0.8 9.7 5,151 24.7 o/w lif e 0.8 10.3 4,252 20.4 Gross written premiums 7,111 6,498 6,631 6,893 7,221 7,568 o/w non lif e 1.0 7.7 899 4.3 Property & casualty 4,362 3,971 4,103 4,268 4,439 4,616 Put option AG insurance (25%) (1,286) (6.2) Lif e 2,749 2,527 2,528 2,624 2,782 2,952 Belgium v aluation 0.8 9.7 3,865 18.6 Segmental operating profits UK 0.6 10.0 798 3.8 Lif e 779 734 766 946 943 1,005 Continental Europe 0.9 9.0 855 4.1 Property & casualty 368 319 236 377 383 397 Asia 1.0 11.7 2,860 13.7 Asset management 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating entities 0.9 10.2 8,378 40.2 Other businesses 147 (85) (260) (60) (56) (56) General account 0.7 919 4.4 Net interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0.8 12.3 9,296 44.7 Corporate expenses/consd (26) 11 50 (19) (8) 2 Litigation risk (500) (2.4) Operating profit 1,268 980 792 1,244 1,262 1,348 Restricted cash 130 0.6 Net capital gains (losses) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Target Price (€) 0.8 11.8 8,926 43.0 Non-op income (expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 1,268 980 792 1,244 1,262 1,348 Source: ING estimates Tax (339) (241) (137) (250) (296) (309) Minorities (186) (169) (180) (183) (204) (210) Implied PER (ex Taiping stake – China) Other post-tax items 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit 743 570 475 811 763 829 Market cap Ageas 8,078 IFRS net operating profit 743 570 475 811 763 829 Minus holding co cash (equivalents) 1,721 Value operating entities 6,358 EEV income statement Minus v alue 25% stake Taiping Life 1,777 Lif e new business value 69 120 89 92 95 98 Remaining v alue operating entities 4,581 EEV operating prof it 236 326 266 357 350 343 Net prof it insurance (2015 ex Taiping) 705 EEV net prof it 1,557 678 597 357 350 343 Implied PER (x) 6.5 Opening embedded v alue 4,008 5,542 5,629 5,691 5,513 5,328 Source: ING estimates Closing embedded value 5,565 5,787 5,691 5,513 5,328 5,136 Balance sheet Company profile Opening shareholders’ funds 7,760 9,749 8,698 8,391 9,493 9,725 Ageas offers international insurance services under its Closing shareholders’ funds 9,749 8,698 8,391 9,493 9,725 9,868 segments, Life (70% of net insurance profit in 2014) Ordinary equity 9,799 8,525 10,223 11,325 11,478 11,665 Equity 9,799 8,525 10,223 11,325 11,478 11,665 and Non-Life (30%), as well as disability and medical Minorities 872 805 688 594 594 594 services to individuals and groups. The company Total equity 10,671 9,330 10,912 11,919 12,072 12,259 operates in Belgium, the UK, Continental Europe and Total debt 4,884 4,335 4,570 4,570 4,570 4,570 Asia. Belgium, its largest market, accounted for c.50% Total capital 15,554 13,665 15,481 16,489 16,642 16,829 of net insurance profit, while Asia contributed almost Performance & returns 25%, and the UK and Continental Europe contributed the remainder. APE (new business) mgn (%) 11.2 22.6 18.4 100.6 96.0 91.1 PVNBP margin (%) 1.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 P&C combined ratio (%) 99.1 98.6 99.6 98.4 96.9 96.9 Risks IFRS net op profit growth (%) n/a -23.4 -16.6 70.7 -5.9 8.7 BV growth (%) 26.3 -13.0 19.9 10.8 1.4 1.6 General risks relate to financial markets: for example, Embedded v alue growth (%) 51.0 4.0 -1.7 -3.1 -3.4 -3.6 lower equity markets, prolonged low interest rates. Lif e ROEV (%) 5.9 5.9 4.7 6.3 6.4 6.4 Reported ROE (%) 8.5 6.2 5.1 7.5 6.7 7.2 Legacy issues that remain and can cause quarterly Solv ency ratio (%) 203.8 207.1 205.5 217.6 220.2 222.8 volatility in earnings and shareholders’ equity are: (1) Gearing (%) 31.4 31.7 29.5 27.7 27.5 27.2 the written put option on the 25%+1 share of AG Insurance to BNP Paribas Fortis and (2) RPN(I) Valuation liability, which reflects the net present value of the Price/embedded value (x) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 expected future interest payments related to a liability Price/book (x) 0.96 1.0 0.81 0.74 0.73 0.72 Price/tangible book (x) 1.1 1.2 0.95 0.85 0.84 0.82 vis-à-vis BNP Paribas Fortis and to the Belgium State PER (IFRS net op EPS) (x) 12.3 15.5 18.1 10.3 11.0 10.1 for its granted guarantee.
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