SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Christian Wagner Security Cooperation in South Asia Overview, Reasons, Prospects RP 6 June 2014 Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2014 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu- tive board of the Institute. They express exclusively the personal views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3­4 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] ISSN 1863-1053 (English version of SWP-Studie 2/2014) Table of Contents 5 Problems and Conclusions 7 In Search of Security Cooperation in South Asia 9 Security Cooperation in South Asia: An Attempt of an Overview 9 The Bilateral Level: India and Its Neighbors 9 Pakistan 10 Afghanistan 11 Nepal 12 Bhutan 13 Bangladesh 14 Sri Lanka 16 Maldives 17 The Multilateral Level: Security in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation 18 Potential and Limitations of Cooperation 19 Reasons for Cooperation 19 The National Level: Democracy and Internal Conflicts 19 The International Level 20 India’s South Asia Policy: From Indira to Manmohan Doctrine 20 The Multilateral Level: The SAARC Charter of Democracy 21 The Role of External Actors: The China Factor 22 Prospects: Toward a Security Architecture in South Asia? 22 Abbreviations Dr. habil. Christian Wagner is Head of SWP’s Asia Division Problems and Conclusions Security Cooperation in South Asia Overview, Reasons, Prospects South Asia continues to be one of the most important crisis regions in the 21st century. It is characterized by an interlocking web of old and new security risks. There are unresolved territorial disputes such as Kash- mir and the recognition of the Durand Line; the pro- liferation of nuclear technology; a broad range of ethnic, religious, and left-wing rebellions that have links to regional and global terrorist groups connected with organized crime; and the unpredictable reper- cussions of climate change, which could turn one of the poorest regions in the world into a tinderbox. In contrast to Southeast and Central Asia, there are no regional organizations for security cooperation so far. But a closer look reveals a variety of forms of security collaboration between India and its neigh- bors, but they have yet to be included in academic and political discussions. The present study offers an initial overview of existing forms of security cooper- ation in the region. Moreover, it elaborates various reasons for the collaboration and future prospects. The main starting point is that regional security has to first be provided by affected states in the region rather than by extra-regional powers. The main findings are: 1. There is more security cooperation among member countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) than is visible in the political and academic debates. The collaboration is mostly bilateral and depends on the overall relation- ship between India and its neighbors. 2. The most important reason for the expansion of security cooperation is probably the change in India’s South Asia policy since the 1990s. India has been will- ing to make unilateral concessions in bilateral con- flicts and in economic cooperation. Today, India pur- sues its security interests through cooperation with its neighbors and no longer by interfering in their domestic affairs. A related factor is that most govern- ments in South Asia see the biggest threats coming from domestic challenges, such as various ethnic, reli- gious, and communist rebellions, rather than from external forces, for instance from India, as was the case in the 1980s and 1990s. Hence, national security perceptions have converged, thereby opening the door for more security cooperation. SWP Berlin Security Cooperation in South Asia June 2014 5 Problems and Conclusions 3. Because of the different types of conflicts in South Asia, an institutionalization of security co- operation on the regional level, such as that exhibited by the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), is not very likely to develop in this region. Regional security architecture will be characterized by a network of different forms of collaboration. 4. Extra-regional powers such as China and the United States have intensified their economic and security relations with South Asian countries. But they have only limited interest in becoming involved in the various domestic conflicts. Therefore, military cooper- ation with extra-regional powers is not an obstacle for security collaboration among South Asia countries. 5. Given the complex security situation in the region, Germany and the European Union (EU) also have a high interest in fostering the process of secu- rity cooperation. Although a multilateral security framework is missing, existing bilateral cooperation offers a variety of entry points to support security col- laboration in this part of Asia. The improvement of the national security architecture and its democratic control is one of the most important areas. Most secu- rity agencies in the region have been confronted with allegations of human rights violations. Moreover, the enforcement of the rule of law is impeded by deficits in the infrastructure of the courts and law enforce- ment agencies. In the context of bilateral cooperation, Germany and the EU can improve the national secu- rity architecture in South Asia, which at the same time may also contribute indirectly to better regional collaboration in this field. SWP Berlin Security Cooperation in South Asia June 2014 6 In Search of Security Cooperation in South Asia Debates about the regionalization of security policies are responsible for attacks in India and Afghanistan, in Asia increased enormously after the end of the are matters of serious international concern. More- East-West conflict.1 In Southeast Asia, the ARF, which over, the region has a wide spectrum of ethnic and was established in 1994, has been the most ambitious separatist movements from Baluchistan in Pakistan attempt to deal with regional security issues in a to India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, up to the Chittagong Hill multilateral framework. In Central Asia, the member Tracts in Bangladesh. For decades, civil strife and states of the SCO have put a strong emphasis on natural disasters have triggered internal migration security issues since its creation in 2001. In East Asia, and refugees in the region. Additionally, there are China’s rise and the possible implications on the frequent violent clashes between religious communi- territorial conflicts in the East and South China Sea – ties, for instance between Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, and in addition to the rebalancing of US-Asia relations Christians in India, and sectarian violence between through the US “pivot” to Asia – have intensified the Sunni and Shia groups in Pakistan. Left-wing extrem- debate about regional security structures.2 ism in India and Nepal adds another dimension to There have been no similar developments in South the already complex spectrum of conflict that has lost Asia. For many years, this part of Asia has been per- relevance in many other parts of the world. ceived as a region of chronic instability and economic In the face of these multidimensional conflict sce- disintegration.3 On the one hand, the security situa- narios in South Asia, closer security cooperation seems tion is characterized by conventional boundary and necessary but is regarded to be nearly impossible by territorial conflicts, for instance between India and many observers.4 There are currently no attempts to Pakistan over Kashmir, and between Pakistan and develop organizations such as the ARF or SCO to tackle Afghanistan on the recognition of the Durand Line. common security challenges in the region. The limited The Kashmir dispute led to three of the four wars academic discourse on regional security in South Asia between India and Pakistan and has triggered a con- focuses on Western or European experiences from the ventional and nuclear arms race, usurping resources Cold War, for example the Conference on Security that could have been used instead to tackle the eco- and Cooperation in Europe, which was established in nomic and social problems in both countries. Helsinki in 1975.5 Because of the different starting On the other hand, the region is also plagued by a positions concerning the conflicts and their causes, variety of non-conventional security threats. The pro- such a mechanism for South Asia does not seem to be liferation of nuclear technology by A. Q. Khan, the too promising. First, there is no comparable confron- father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb, and the regional tation between divergent ideological blocs, as with the and global networks of militant Islamic groups such Cold War. Second, territorial and minority disputes, as Lashkar-e-Toiba, which have links to Al Qaeda and 4 See, among others, Regional Security in South Asia, ed. Sridhar 1 See Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features, K. Khatri (Kathmandu, 1987); Crisis Prevention, Confidence Building, ed. Muthiah Alagappa (Stanford: Stanford University Press, and Reconciliation in South Asia, ed. Michael Krepon and Amit 2003); Amitav Acharya, “The Emerging Regional Architecture Sevak (New Delhi, 1996); Conflict and Violence in South Asia, ed. of World Politics,” World Politics 59, no. 4 (July 2007): 629–52. K. M. de Silva (Kandy, 2000); CBMs in South Asia: Potential and 2 See Mely Caballero-Anthony, Regional Security in Southeast Possibilities, ed. Dipankar Banerjee (Colombo, 2000); Confidence Asia: Beyond the ASEAN Way (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Building Measures and Security Cooperation in South Asia. Challenges Asian Studies [ISEAS], 2005); Hillary Clinton, “America’s Pacific in the New Century, ed. Mohammad Humayun Kabir (Dhaka, Century,” Foreign Policy (November 2011): 189, also accessible 2002); Politics and Security in South Asia.