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Inside Spain Nr 177 19 October - 17 November 2020 Inside Spain Nr 177 19 October - 17 November 2020 William Chislett Summary Venezuelan opposition leader flees to Madrid. Most regions seal off their borders as virus pandemic cases remain high. Government sees off no-confidence vote amid deepening divisions in the right. 2021 budget finally unveiled with tax rises for rich and hike in social spending. Cellnex buys CK Hutchison’s European towers for €10 billion. Foreign Policy Venezuelan opposition leader flees to Madrid Leopoldo López, who spent 18 months living at the Spanish Ambassador’s residence in Caracas, arrived in Madrid last month and pledged to continue his struggle to unseat the government of Nicolás Maduro. López was jailed in 2014 for leading violent protests against Maduro and put under house arrest in 2017 after his release. In April 2019 he joined Juan Guaidó, head of Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly, who had invoked the constitution to assume an interim presidency, following widely viewed fraudulent presidential elections in 2018, on the streets in a failed bid to trigger a military revolt. López then sought refuge at the residence. Spain is one of more than 50 countries which recognises Guaidó. There were no details of how López managed to leave the residence undetected by the Venezuelan authorities. The Spanish Foreign Ministry said his decision to leave was ‘personal and voluntary’. López’s wife left for Spain in May 2019. His father was granted Spanish nationality in 2015 by the previous Popular Party (PP) government and is a PP MEP. Caracas accused the Spanish government of aiding the ‘illegal escape of a dangerous criminal’ in violation of international law. Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias, leader of the hard-left Unidas Podemos, the junior partner in the Socialist-led minority government, criticised his own government for allowing López to come to Madrid. Iglesias admired Maduro’s equally authoritarian 1 Inside Spain Nr 177 19 October - 17 November 2020 predecessor, Hugo Chavez, who died in 2013. His party, Podemos, reportedly received funds from Venezuela. Iglesias called for dialogue with Caracas, praising the efforts of Spain’s former Socialist Prime Minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. His frequent visits to Venezuela have achieved nothing; the opposition regards him as not being neutral. The Spanish government downgraded its diplomatic relations with Venezuela last month by replacing the outgoing Ambassador, Jesús Silva, with a chargé d’affaires and not a new ambassador. Domestic scene Most regions seal off their borders as virus pandemic cases remain high Citizens in 12 of Spain’s 17 regions are banned from travelling to another region unless they have a valid reason in a desperate attempt to reduce the still high 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases of 470 per 100,000. The total number of cases stood at almost 1.5 million on 16 November, the sixth highest in the world, and deaths at 41,253 (see Figure 1). Some regions such as Andalucía, Murcia and Asturias have reported more deaths a day than in the first wave. Including ‘excess deaths’ –the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods– the total number of fatalities is 64,709. 2 Inside Spain Nr 177 19 October - 17 November 2020 Figure 1. Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by region (1) Notified cases (PCR Cases per 100,000 people test) in past 14 days Deaths Andalucía 200,550 547 3,264 Aragón 68,814 733 2,039 Asturias 19,136 629 732 Balearic Islands 21,988 244 391 Basque Country 87,101 758 2.245 Canary Islands 19,360 81 312 Cantabria 13,235 523 279 Castilla y León 108,777 792 4,122 Castilla-La 77,866 466 3,574 Mancha Catalonia 283,937 530 7,382 Extremadura 26,066 468 838 Galicia 43,714 296 1,084 Madrid 333,215 311 11,082 Murcia 49,720 678 486 Navarre 37,870 591 800 La Rioja 15,305 736 516 Valencia 84,029 284 2,028 Spain (2) 1,496,864 470 41,253 (1) Figures at 16/XI/2020. (2) Including the North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. Source: Health Ministry. The regions are implementing different policies to bring the virus under control. Madrid has kept its bars and restaurants open, while in Catalonia they remain closed until 23 November. Germany closed all its bars and restaurants as of 2 November, even though its 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases is much lower than Spain’s at around 300. The situation in Burgos (population 355,000) in the region of Castilla y León is so bad that authorities there requested permission from the central government to order people to stay at home with few exemptions, similar to the lockdown imposed nationwide in 3 Inside Spain Nr 177 19 October - 17 November 2020 March. It was denied as such a measure does not form part of the second state six- month of emergency as of 29 October. Instead, Burgos is limiting meetings to no more than three people and extending PCR tests. Spain’s rush to a ‘new normality’ after the end of its first state of emergency on 21 June and a severe three-month lockdown, partly in the hope of spurring a recovery in tourism, has proved to be not just ineffective, but counterproductive. As Figure 2 shows, countries that got to grips with the virus the quickest have tended to suffer the least economic pain. According to the European Commission’s latest forecast, GDP will shrink 12.4% this year, up from 9.4% in its spring forecast and the sharpest contraction in the bloc. Figure 2. Countries that were unable to control their outbreaks have tended to suffer the most economic pain Source: Financial Times. Another factor behind the larger than average impact of the pandemic on Spain’s economy is the weight of the tourism and hospitality sectors (26% of GDP –five points more than the EU average–), which have been decimated. Those countries that achieved this were also the ones that followed scientific as opposed to political advice the closest. Spain is ranked near the bottom of adhering to scientific advice, according to a survey of researchers in May and June in the early months of the pandemic (see Figure 3). New Zealand comes out top. Perhaps it is no coincidence that the country has become virtually COVID-19 free. 4 Inside Spain Nr 177 19 October - 17 November 2020 Figure 3. The scientific method? Source: The Economist. The General Medical Council called for Fernando Simón, the health emergencies chief and the public face of the government’s response to COVID, to be sacked for ‘patent and prolonged incompetence’ in his handling of the pandemic. As of 23 November, Spain will become one of the last EU countries to make travellers from nations designated high risk by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) provide proof of a negative coronavirus test in order to enter the country. Government sees off no-confidence vote amid deepening divisions in the right The minority Socialist-led coalition government comfortably survived a censure motion tabled by the hard-right VOX, which saw the mainstream conservative Popular Party (PP) continuing its shift toward the centre. The government with 155 of Congress’s 350 seats won the day with 298 votes against and VOX’s 52 in favour. The PP (89 seats) had the political class on tenterhooks as it left its decision until the very end of the parliamentary debate when it joined with 15 of the 16 other parties to vote down the censure motion. 5 Inside Spain Nr 177 19 October - 17 November 2020 The PP’s leader Pablo Casado told Santiago Abascal, his counterpart in VOX, he was ‘part of the problem and you cannot be part of the solution that my party represents’. VOX supports the PP in regional governments in Madrid, Andalucía and Murcia. The government, in which the hard-left Unidas Podemos is the junior partner, won considerably more support than it did when it was formed in January following the inconclusive election in December 2019. Then, the government garnered support from 167 MPs in the second investiture vote when a simple as opposed to a qualified majority was required. This time parties that backed it after rejecting its formation included the liberal Ciudadanos (Cs, 10 seats) and both Catalan parties pushing for the region’s independence (21 seats). Casado followed this vote a week later by abstaining in the motion to back the government’s six-month state of emergency, which was predictably rejected by VOX. Cs supported it. These votes, together with Casado’s sacking of Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo in August as the PP’s spokeswoman in parliament, would appear to mark a turning point in the PP’s strategy and a distancing from VOX (formed in 2013 by former PP members). The combative Álvarez de Toledo parted ways with the PP on some of its policies. Nevertheless, like the rest of her party, she voted against the censure motion, but no sooner had the debate ended and she publicly disagreed with the party’s line, saying the PP should have abstained and by not doing so ran the risk of ‘dynamiting the bridges with VOX’s voters’. The PP’s more moderate image, in its bid to win the centre ground, is, however, threatened by the party’s erratic management of the pandemic in Madrid, the PP’s political stronghold, under the regional presidency of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who, unlike the presidents of other PP controlled regions, is at constant loggerheads with the central government.
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