An Uncertain Road Muslims and the Future of Europe hroughout Europe today, it is not un- Amid these demographic shifts lie a host of common to see women wearing head- social challenges. While many European Mus- T scarves and men with skull caps and lims have become successful in their new beards. On many European streets, shops homes, many others do not speak their host now sport signs in Arabic and other Near country’s language well, if at all, and are often Eastern languages and sell an array of exotic jobless and poor. Moreover, segregation, looking products from the Middle East and whether by choice or necessity, is common, other parts of the Islamic world. Indeed, in with large numbers of Muslims living in ghet- the space of a few decades, whole neighbor- tos where the crime and poverty rates are high. hoods in cities like Birmingham, Rotterdam For Europeans, too, Muslim immigration and Paris have been transformed. Streets that poses special challenges. Unlike the United have witnessed hundreds of years of European States – a land of immigrants with no domi- history are now playing host to a decidedly nant ethnic group – most nations in Europe non-Western people and culture. are constructed around a population with a This is the new Europe, one in which a rapidly common ethnicity. In addition, these coun- growing Muslim population is making its pres- tries possess deep historical, cultural, religious ence felt in societies that until recently were and language traditions. Injecting hundreds of largely homogeneous. Muslims are still very thousands, and in some cases millions, of much minorities in Western and Central Euro- people who look, speak and act differently into pean countries, making up roughly 5 percent these settings often makes for a difficult social of the European Union’s total population. But fit. a number of demographic trends point to dra- matic change in the years ahead. The centrality of Islam in the Islam is already the fastest-growing religion in lives of so many European Europe. Driven by immigration and high Muslims is hard for increasingly birthrates, the number of Muslims on the con- secular Scandinavians, Germans tinent has tripled in the last 30 years. Most and Frenchmen to comprehend. demographers forecast a similar or even higher rate of growth in the coming decades. Tensions also have arisen over religion. The The social impact of this growing population is centrality of Islam in the lives of so many magnified by a low birthrate among native European Muslims is hard for increasingly Europeans. After a post-World-War-II baby secular Scandinavians, Germans and French- boom, birthrates in Europe have dropped to men to comprehend. Europeans worry that The Forum is an average of 1.45 children per couple, far be- Islam will make it difficult for their Muslim A Project of low the 2.1 needed to keep population growth neighbors to accept many of the continent’s The Pew at replacement levels. The continent that gave core values, like tolerance, democracy and Research the rest of the world tens of millions of immi- Center equal rights for women. grants and Thomas Malthaus’ dire predictions of overpopulation is now faced with a shrink- These social pressures have been compounded December 2004 ing populace. by the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United AN UNCERTAIN ROAD Page 2 European governments have grappled with this migra- Muslims in Europe in 2003 tion in various ways and with varying degrees of success. Population Some countries, like France and Britain, have had rela- Percentage (in millions) tively well established policies toward immigrants for decades. And Britain, in particular, has had some suc- France 8% 5 cess in integrating Muslim newcomers into the broader Netherlands 6 1 society. Other states, like Germany, Spain and Italy, Germany 4 3.5 have, until recently, treated their Muslim communities as Belgium 4 0.4 temporary phenomena, groups of “guest workers” or Austria 4 0.3 foreigners who would eventually return to their home- United Kingdom 3 1.6 lands. Sweden 3 0.3 But the growing presence of Muslims coupled with in- Italy 2 1 creased social tensions and terrorism-related fears have Spain 2 1 forced governments around the continent to focus more Bosnia Herzegovina 40 1.5 intently on trying to bring this community into the mainstream. Efforts have ranged from new laws aimed Source: International Religious Freedom Report 2004, at hastening the pace of assimilation, such as the recent U.S. Department of State French head scarf ban, to proposals to assist in creating a more homegrown, European brand of Islam. States and subsequent events – particularly the March 11, 2004, train bombings in Madrid and more recent The successful integration of European Muslims is cru- killing of Dutch filmmaker Theo Van Gogh. Terrorism cial to the future of Europe. Prognosticators may dis- and its link to radical Islam have made Europeans even agree on the community’s ultimate demographic and more wary of Muslims, especially those living within social impact, but all believe that Muslims will, at the their midst. These concerns have provided fuel for very least, be a significant and sizable minority that will xenophobic, nativist parties, helping to propel a number play an important role in shaping the continent’s future. of them into the political mainstream. Into this volatile mix comes the continent-wide debate A Matter of Demographics over whether Turkey should be admitted into the Euro- pean Union (EU). Efforts by Europe’s political elite to etermining the size of the Muslim population convince a skeptical populace of the benefits of includ- in Europe today is difficult for a number of ing a largely Near Eastern and Muslim country of 70 D reasons. First, many European countries do million into Europe’s grand experiment have, so far, not collect census data on religious groups. Further- mostly fallen flat. Polls show majorities in many Euro- more, many nations aren’t forthcoming with the infor- pean countries remain opposed to Turkish accession. mation they do have, because the size of their Muslim population is a sensitive political issue. Finally, there is The argument over Turkey goes beyond the geopolitical no straightforward geographic definition of Europe. pluses and minuses of EU membership and raises the Should it include Muslim Turkey, for example, or the larger issue of Europe’s troubled relationship with Islam. republics of the former Soviet Union? As a result, esti- It is an old acquaintance, one stretching back more than mates of the size of Muslim Europe can and do vary 1,300 years. And it is marked by countless wars and widely. occupations, as well as a vibrant, steady cultural ex- change. Over the last 40 or more years, though, the Using figures provided by the State Department and relationship has entered a new phase, one dominated by other sources, and a definition of Europe that does not the largely peaceful migration of Muslims to Europe, include Turkey (which has a mostly Muslim population usually in search of work or freedom. of 70 million) or the countries of the former Soviet Un- AN UNCERTAIN ROAD Page 3 ion, there are approximately 23 million Muslims in whole. And in Great Britain and Belgium, one-third of Europe.1 The majority of this community – 15 to 18 all Muslims are under age 15, compared to one-fifth of million – lives in the 25 countries that now make up the the general populations of those countries.3 The fact EU. Most of the rest live in the Balkans, notably Bos- that this sizable young cohort is approaching its peak nia, Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia, small states or child-producing years should help drive Muslim num- quasi-states where Muslims comprise either the majority bers up. “Given the age spread of the Muslim popula- or a substantial minority of the population. tion, their numbers would grow quite a bit even if immi- gration stopped tomorrow,” says Furman University Within the EU, France has the largest Muslim popula- Professor Brent Nelsen, an expert on religion in Europe. tion – as many as 5 million people, most from North Africa, comprising about 8 percent of the country’s total Meanwhile, low native birthrates throughout the conti- population. Germany, with up to 3.5 million, is home to nent will further increase the Muslim share of the entire the second largest group of Muslims, followed by Eng- population. Indeed, with a birth rate of 1.45 children land with 1.6 million and Spain and Italy, with roughly 1 per couple, the European Union is expected to shrink million each. from 455 million today to 425 million in 2050, even if current immigration While these communi- levels remain con- ties are sizable, Muslims stant.4 Moreover, with still only make up a Europe’s demand for young workers Europe’s aging popu- small portion of and the Islamic world’s excess supply lation putting an in- Europe’s population, no creasing strain on the more than about 5 per- of people are likely to increase the flow continent’s generous cent of the EU’s more of migrants from South to North, unless health and pension than 425 million people. Europe adopts draconian immigration schemes, much greater But most demographers immigration may be predict that that number restrictions, a development viewed as necessary to maintain will increase dramatically unlikely though not impossible. a workforce large in the coming decades – enough to pay benefits to 10 percent as early as to retirees. 2020. Indeed, if the past is any guide, that estimate may be low, since the size of the European Muslim commu- Waiting to fill this need are an estimated 300 million nity has tripled in the last 30 years.