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Multi-Decadal Scenario Simulation Over Korea Using a One-Way Double-Nested Regional Climate Model System

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Multi-Decadal Scenario Simulation Over Korea Using a One-Way Double-Nested Regional Climate Model System Clim Dyn (2007) 28:759–780 DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0203-z Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 1: recent climate simulation (1971–2000) Eun-Soon Im Æ Won-Tae Kwon Æ Joong-Bae Ahn Æ Filippo Giorgi Received: 21 January 2006 / Accepted: 6 October 2006 / Published online: 8 December 2006 Ó Springer-Verlag 2006 Abstract We present an analysis of a high resolution of simulated daily mean temperature agrees well with multi-decadal simulation of recent climate (1971–2000) the observed seasonal and spatial patterns. In the over the Korean Peninsula with a regional climate summer season, however, daily variability is underes- model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested sys- timated. (3) The RegCM3 simulation adequately cap- tem. Mean climate state as well as frequency and tures the seasonal evolution of precipitation associated intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at to the East Asia monsoon. In particular, the simulated various temporal and spatial scales, with focus on winter precipitation is remarkably good, clearly show- surface air temperature and precipitation. The mother ing typical precipitation patterns that occur on the intermediate resolution model domain encompasses northwestern areas of Japan during the winter mon- the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing while soon. Although summer precipitation is underesti- the high resolution nested domain covers the Korean mated, area-averaged time series of precipitation over Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. The simulation spans Korea show that the RegCM3 agrees better with the 30-year period of January 1971 through December observations than ECHO-G both in terms of seasonal 2000, and initial and lateral boundary conditions for evolution and precipitation amounts. (4) Heavy rainfall the mother domain are provided from ECHO-G fields phenomena exceeding 300 mm/day are simulated only based on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The model at the high resolution of the double nested domain. (5) shows a good performance in reproducing the clima- The model shows a tendency to overestimate the tological and regional characteristics of surface vari- number of precipitation days and to underestimate the ables, although some persistent biases are present. precipitation intensities. (6) A CSEOF analysis reveals Main results are as follows: (1) The RegCM3 success- that the model captures the strength of the annual fully simulates the fine-scale structure of the tempera- cycle and the surface warming trend throughout the ture field due to topographic forcing but it shows a simulated period. systematic cold bias mostly due to an underestimate of maximum temperature. (2) The frequency distribution E.-S. Im (&) Á W.-T. Kwon 1 Introduction Climate Research Lab, METRI, KMA, Seoul, South Korea The climate of Korea has experienced a gradual e-mail: [email protected] warming throughout the twentieth century (Oh et al. J.-B. Ahn 2004) in agreement with the warming observed at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, global scale (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Pusan National University, Pusan, South Korea Change, IPCC 2001). Average temperature over South F. Giorgi Korea has increased by about 1.5°C during the twen- Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy tieth century (more than twice the corresponding 123 760 E.-S. Im et al.: Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system global warming) mainly due to the greenhouse effect Im et al. 2006a). In the double nested approach and rapid urbanization (Kwon 2005). The Korean (Christensen et al. 1998) an intermediate resolution peninsula appears thus to be particularly responsive to ‘‘mother’’ domain simulation is first completed using possible anthropogenically induced climatic changes. lateral boundary forcing fields from an AOGCM. Fields As the global mean surface temperature is projected to from this mother domain simulation are then provided further increase in the twenty-first century, it is rea- as lateral boundary conditions to high resolution nested sonable to expect that Korea will be strongly vulnera- RCM simulations over a sub-domain of interest. In our ble to climate change. In fact, also associated with double-nested model, the mother domain encompasses global warming are changes in the frequency and the eastern regions of Asia and adjacent oceans at intensity of extreme climatic events (Bell et al. 2004), 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covers the and discernable evidence of increased rainfall intensity, Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. In a previous shifts of climatic seasons and lengthening of the paper (Im et al. 2006a) we examined the basic model growing season has already been observed over Korea performance in a ‘‘perfect boundary condition’’ (Giorgi (Kwon et al. 2005). It is thus important that credible and Mearns 1999) experiment using NCEP/NCAR scenarios of climate change over Korea are developed reanalysis boundary conditions for the period 2001– in order to evaluate related impacts and adaptation/ 2003. The model was validated against a dense obser- mitigation measures. vational network over the Korean territory and showed The primary tools used to generate climate change a realistic representation of Korean climate, however scenarios are coupled atmosphere ocean general cir- with some persistent biases, such as a cold bias during culation models (AOGCMs), and several generations winter (Im et al. 2006a). of AOGCMs have been used to produce such scenarios In this and the companion paper by Im et al. (2006b) (Kittle et al. 1998; Cubasch et al. 2001; Giorgi et al. we use the double-nested model system to investigate 2001; Giorgi and Bi 2005). AOGCMs represent many possible changes in regional surface climate due to broad features of current climate reasonably well global warming and to produce fine-scale regional cli- (McAvaney et al. 2001) and can reproduce the ob- mate information for impact assessment studies over served large-scale changes in climate over the recent the Korean peninsula. Toward this goal, we carried out past (Mitchell et al. 2001). They can therefore be used two 30-year long experiments, one for present day with some confidence to produce projections of the conditions (covering the period 1971–2000) and one for global climate response to anthropogenic activities. near future climate conditions (covering the period However, in areas where complex coastal and moun- 2021–2050) under forcing from the B2 IPCC emission tainous features have a significant effect on weather scenario, which lies towards the low end of the IPCC and climate, scenarios based AOGCMs, whose reso- scenario range. Global fields used to drive the mother lution is still of the order of 100–200 km, generally fail domain simulation are obtained from a corresponding to capture the local detail needed for impact assess- scenario experiment with the ECHO-G AOGCM. ments at the national and regional level (Mearns et al. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the present 2001). Also, at such coarse resolutions, extreme events day climate simulation (1971–2000), which is key for such as drought or heavy rainfall are either not cap- assessing and understanding the future climate change tured or substantially underestimated. Korea is a re- scenario. Im et al. (2006b) then focus on the future gion where these limitations of AOGCMs are scenario simulation. Our analysis is primarily centered particularly important, since the Korean peninsula is on large scale circulations affecting the region and small (the area of South Korea is 99,585 km2) and different statistics of surface air temperature and pre- mountainous, and since the climate of Korea is char- cipitation, the two variables most used in impact acterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation assessment studies (Mearns et al. 2001). Among the episodes (Park et al. 2003; Yun et al. 2001). statistics analyzed are monthly, seasonal, and annual One method for overcoming the resolution limita- means and the distribution of daily temperature and tions of AOGCMs and adding regional detail to global precipitation events, including extremes. In addition, projections is to use one-way nested regional climate we investigate whether the modeling system is capable models (RCMs; Giorgi and Mearns 1999). Because of to reproduce observed trends during the 1971–2000 the reasons presented previously, this technique can be period using a cyclostationary empirical orthogonal especially useful for the Korean peninsula, and there- function (CSEOF) technique. The model results are fore we developed a one-way double-nested RCM evaluated by comparison with large scale reanalysis system for the Korean region based on the regional data as well as station observations covering the South model RegCM3 (Giorgi et al. 1993a, b; Pal et al. 2006; Korea territory. 123 E.-S. Im et al.: Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system 761 In Sect. 2 we first present a brief description of the simulation include the comprehensive radiative model system, experiment design and observation data. transfer package of the NCAR Community Climate The results for the AOGCM, mother and nested do- Model, version CCM3 (Kiehl et al. 1996), the non- main simulations are then validated and intercompared local boundary layer scheme of Holtslag et al. (1990), in Sect. 3 and conclusion are presented in Sect. 4. the BATS land surface scheme (Dickinson et al. 1993), the mass flux cumulus cloud scheme of Grell (1993) and the resolvable scale precipitation scheme 2 Models, experiment design and validation strategy of Pal et al. (2000). The same model physics schemes are used in the mother and nested domain simula- 2.1 Atmosphere–ocean global climate model tions and we adopt a linear orography blending method similar to Hong and Juang (1998) at the The global climate model which provides the initial lateral boundaries in order to minimize the discern- and lateral boundary fields for the mother domain ible systematic error due to scale mismatch between simulation is the ECMWF Hamburg Atmosphere driving and model fields.
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