Cyclone ‘BUBUL’ Situation Updates- Very High to High Risks for Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh Version: 02, Date: 09 November 2019 (18.00 BST)

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ (Pronounced as Bul bul) over northwest Bay of Bengal continued to move nearly northwards Very high likelihood impact of very sever cyclonic storm over Southwestern district of Bangladesh from midnight of 09 November 2019. Updates on Location and direction:  The current speed is 09 kmph during past 06 What you need to know? hours, and lay centered about 140 km east- Report (From – To) 07 Nov - 09 Nov northeast of Paradip (Odisha), 85 km south of Sagar Islands (), and 270 km west- 49,090,169 (Bangladesh) Exposed population southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh); About 5,755,578 People under 445 km west-southwest of Chattogram port, 445 (Estimated) high risk areas km west- southwest of cox’s bazar port, 240 km

southwest of Mongla port and 275 km The maximum Storm surge

Southwest of payra port. It is likely to move in a height is forecasted 2.0 m

north/northeasterly direction at Sharankhola Forest Maximum storm And may cross west bengal- coast (near Office, Bangladesh. This sundarban) by this midnight. surge height is estimated for 10  It is very likely to weaken gradually, move Nov 2019 05:00 BST. northeastwards and cross West Bengal - (Sharankhola, Bagerhat) Bangladesh Coasts between Sagar Islands (West Bengal) and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across Average storm surge of Bangladesh areas through Sundarbans delta by about 1.0 to 1.5 meter late evening/ night (between 2030 & 2330 hours Average Strom height above astronomical BST) of 9th November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm Surge Height tide is very likely to with maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 inundate low lying areas of

Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph. the coastal districts.  The coastal areas of Bangladesh It’s peripheral gusty/squally wind is affecting coastal belt. Vulnerability Very High (Bangladesh)

Pareshganj, West Bengal

Number Landfall on 09th Novemebr evening

DANGER of 20:30 to 23:00 BST Level District Name of the District GREAT 9 Low lying areas of the coastal BARISHAL, BHOLA , DANGER belt started to inundated by BORGUNA, PATUAKHALI, SIGNAL tidal surge. The track of the BAGHERHAT, JHALOKATHI, NUMBER KHULNA , PIROZPUR , Impact on cyclone may cross Bangladesh TEN (R) TEN Bangladesh , tomorrow early with 80 to100 GREAT kmph wind speed through DANGER CHANDPUR , Shyamnagar of Satkhira SIGNAL CHATTOGRAM, FENI, district. NUMBER LAXMIPUR, NINE (R) NOAKHALI Cyclonic strom NINE 5 Total 14 districts are under very and tidal Surge severe cyclonic storm and 5-7 Risk in DANGER feet tidal surge risks and one SIGNAL 1 Cox’sBazar Bangladesh NUMBER SIX districts are under tidal surge (R) SIX risks.

Impact Anticipation: With overlay analysis of GIS track areas of proximity information from three different sources (IMD, GDACS, and Windy) are analyzed and overplayed in GIS software for anticipation of impacts.

7.00 PM; 09 November 2019 22.00 PM; 09 November 2019 6.00 AM; 10 November 2019(Entering Bangaldesh

Source: https://www.windy.com/?22.680,89.028,7

Geographical Snapshots of Risks Estimation of Population in the Impact Areas: ADAMs-WFP 60km/h 90km/h 120km/h Total Division District Barisal Barguna 594,458 442,882 3,797 1,041,137 Barisal 122,964 965,830 1,631,297 2,720,091 Bhola 2,068,715 1,968 2,070,683

Jhalokati 17,103 776,885 793,988

Patuakhali 1,585,659 196,734 1,782,393

Pirojpur 86,380 1,222,765 1,309,145 Chittagong Brahamanbaria 1,560,141 1,560,141 Chandpur 2,853,821 2,853,821 Chittagong 6,384,601 6,384,601 Comilla 6,281,181 6,281,181 Feni 1,673,747 1,673,747

Khagrachhari 695,713 695,713

2,035,830 Lakshmipur 2,035,830 Noakhali 3,610,677 3,610,677 Rangamati 595,432 595,432 Khulna Bagerhat 20,935 270,537 1,440,946 1,732,418 Chuadanga 217,503 217,503 Jessore 3,210,273 3,210,273 Jhenaidah 1,634,011 1,634,011 Khulna 1,327,750 1,024,583 366,916 2,719,249

Magura 1,081,017 1,081,017

834,310 Narail 831,009 3,301 Satkhira 1,398,696 531,128 312,972 2,242,796 Rajshahi Pabna 10,012 10,012 39,794,145 3,540,446 5,755,578 49,090,169

Anticipated Impact over Bangladesh:  Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large  Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. avenue trees.  Roof tops may blow off.  Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees.  Unattached metal sheets may fly.  Dead limbs blown from trees.  Minor damage to power and communication  Major damage to coastal crops. lines. Damage to embankments/ salt pans.  Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to  Pucca roads.

Preparation for NAWG and Assessment:  NAWG is closely observing the cyclone track and situation.  With the technical Support from WFP-VAM unit, NAWG has started to work on 72 Hours Assessment preparation of Cyclone Bulbul. The general findings of the Zero draft- 72 hours assessment will be shared in tomorrow inter cluster meeting,  NAWG already updated and prepared the secondary pre-crisis data set for the anticipated risks areas of Cyclone ‘Bulbul’.  All cluster and working group coordinator/focal are requested to stay alert and take necessary actions to collect their sector specific secondary data. NAWG will seek collaborative support if we decided for 72 hours’ needs Assessment.  Humanitarian agencies in the coastal belt areas are requested to share field level information on situation and intervention report in the below google drive folder link. https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/14x5pHp2dl_vHTWvr-IpLWCYFiuA65Tnz?usp=sharing

Government Reponses and Preparation:

Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief: As per the SoD under supervision of Ministry of Disaster management and Relief all concerned district administrations have taken preparation and started to evaculating people from the risky areas. GoB also allocated different relief items and cash for rapid response. Shelters opened Capacity in the risk prone district as of o8 November Source: NDRRC Report 09 November Note: More shelter already opened in all high risk prone district and on 09 November which is still not yet reported District Upazilla Number of Cyclone Accommodate District total Shelter (with School/ Capacity Capacity of College) Accommodation Bagerhat Mongla 84 47600 112400 Bagerhat Rampal 32 12200 Bagerhat Sharankhola 97 38800 Bagerhat Morelganj 82 13800 Khulna Koyra 121 87000 238950 Khulna Dakope 89 62500 Khulna Paikgacha 32 26250 Khulna Batiaghata 27 15000 Khulna Dumuria 29 12750 Khulna Terokhada 22 15400 Khulna Rupsha 29 20300 Satkhira Kaliganj 105 10500 1026500 Satkhira Shyamnagar 175 175000 Satkhira Ashashuni 81 81000 Satkhira Satkhira 264 260000 Satkhira Kalaroa 218 200000 Total 1487 1078100 1377850

GoB Response Allocation Number of GR Rice GR Cash in Packages of Packages of Fodder Support Date Districts in MT BDT Dry food Baby Food in BDT

8-Nov-19 13 2000 11,000,000 14000 900000 900000 Source (NDRCC Report)

Directorate General of Health Services:

 DGHS and Health Cluster lead WHO are closely monitoring the overall cyclone Bulbul for effective implementation of Health Emergency Operations Centre and Control Room.  Local level DGHS staffs are ensure Emergency Medical buffer stock is in place to support all affected districts.  Total 1577 Medical teams have been formed and ready to tackle impending health problems.  Field based WHO surveillance health staffs are working with local Health officials closely to monitor health situation.

Non-Government Agency response and preparation: Name of NGO Preparedness Coordination Ashroy Early Warning Dissemination team, Shelter Management team, Staff assigned to each district (Khulna, Bagerhat and Foundation Rescue and Evacuation/Shifting team, Women & Child Protection Satkhira) to maintain close collaboration, contact and team and coordination team are working at field level at Khulna, coordination with DMC,s as well as district and upazila Bagerhat and with close collaboration with DMC,s. administration , local govt institution and community Lead partners are working at field level for Early Warning level. Close contact with all control room at district and Dissemination, Shelter Management and rescue as well as close upazila level Humanitarian Coordination team meeting collaboration at District,Upazila ,Union and Community level. Staff completed as on 08 November 2019. Establish assigned to collect information from local and national Newspaper, Emergency Operating Center (Control Room) at head Online media, office and upazila level to coordinate early warning Bangladesh Metrological department website and dissemination to dissemination & evacuation, rescue activities and same the focal person as well as HCT team of AF to concern sub Emergency Response Team, Need assessment team, Primary district level. Coordination with sector actors at district Treatment/First Aid team are ready to perform their activities if and upazila level. Attend DDMC meeting (Khulna, necessary. A special phone used to keep communication with AF Bagerhat and Satkhira) and UzDMC at khulna and field offices and relating govt. offices for these purposes. Bagerhat sub district level. SAPLING BD The USAID-funded Development Food Security Activity, SAPLING, and partners in SAPLING is in touch with the local Bandarban are supporting community level preparations in coordination with the government to coordinate the local local. § SAPLING has activated emergency management team and standby its’ 24 actions along with the local authority. Unions, 5 Upazila, 2 Pourashova and a District level. Activated of the communication channel between IPs (implementing partner i. Updating the Union, Upazila and District level Emergency Management Team organizations), NGO’s of DRR activist. (EMT); ii. Mobilizing and make alert to the members of CDRTs, RCYs, UCVs, School Volunteers and FMBs including BDRCS; - Installed flag at the mass gathering place; - Early warning message disseminating through mega phone, bell, making from the religious worship centers and traditional warning system; iii. Communicated with different stages of DMCs such as UDMCs, UzDMCs and DDMC including different administrations. - Fitness checking of the Personal Safety Equipment’s (PSE) of Volunteers; - Fitness checking of the Search and Rescue Equipment’s distributed by SAPLING to the RCY.

JAGO NARI • JAGO NARI 56 Staff and 120 volunteers are in filed level. • JAGO NARI is preparing to distributed cooking for 400 people at Cyclone shelter. • but Upazilla government has requested to distribute for 2000 People • JAGO NARI training center is ready to book for JAGO NARI partner as a priority. Nabo Jatra • 2 NJP representatives from Kaliganj are continuously working with Upazila An emergency UzDMC meeting has been Program, Control Room. Front line staff, and facilitators have been instructed to take MCHN called at Kaliganj UNO office at 9.00 AM World Vision CCT mothers to shelter in coordination with Union Parishad today and DFoM participated in that • Shyamnagar Field Office formed a special team to work in to meeting. DFoM has visited Krisnanagar mobilize people to take shelter in cyclone shelter by 12pm in November 09, 2019 Union with UNO, Upazila Chairman, OC, which is now working with Union Parishad. Fire service to motivate the community • Community people are advised to preserve dry food with them and to bring people to reach the Shelter in time. them in shelter tomorrow by local administration Evacuation campaign began in 12 Unions • CWF,CNF and VDC members attended UDMC meetings and they are engaged in where 16 WV staffs and 46 facilitators are the preparedness process working side by side at field in Kaliganj. • WVB Stocked adequate water filled up fuel in Motorbikes and Generator based Kaliganj Field Office and Shyamnagar Field on the needs in the field offices. Life safe equipment are well checked and ready Office kept close coordination for the to use as well responding to the Bulbul and working with • Concerned staffs are ready for emergency deployment. Continuous UPs & Upazila administration on communication is intact with region/SBR. Each field offices opened EOC and it is evacuation as well. being updated twice a day. UZDMC assigned NJP to disseminate • Field offices ensured availability of equipments like motor bikes, speed boat & warning message through announcement vehicle and stocked adequate water, filled up fuel in Motorbikes and Generator and mobilize people to send them to • Evacuation campaign began in 12 union where 14 WV staff and 46 facilitator cyclone shelter of Gabura union of are working side by side at field in Kaliganj. 4 officer are continuously supervise Shyamnagar on November 09, 2019 by them at field level .Yet now 2417 people moved to 14 cyclone shelter of 5 union , 12pm. Nalta & Bishnopur, people of 9 union shifted their valuable asset at Shelter but yet not moved in cyclone shelter. Nlata Union parishad distributed dry food and candle to all sheltered people • Dry food are ready for the people who already atken shelter • 07 medical team is ready to provide services. Our MCHN staff are involved the medical team. • More than 50 NJP staff included in different teams formed by UNO for union level. They are working with union level committee led by UP chairperson.

Note: Many other agencies also taking preparation and deployed staffs for rapid response. As we are getting the situation updates continuously, will update this table accordingly.

Table: Projected Tidal Inundation location and anticipated storm Surge Height. The forecasted location are interpolated on online map, can be accessed from this link http://arcg.is/1qziSC

Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m) 11/9/2019 23:00 Sarankhola Forest Office Bangladesh 2.0 11/9/2019 20:00 Sibsa Point Bangladesh 1.6 11/9/2019 23:00 Dhalua Bangladesh 1.5 11/9/2019 23:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh 1.5

11/10/2019 8:00 Andharmanik Bangladesh 1.5

11/10/2019 8:00 Jagannathpur Bangladesh 1.2 11/10/2019 9:00 Adam Manirabad Bangladesh 1.2

11/10/2019 9:00 Char Tarabania Bangladesh 1.2 11/10/2019 10:00 Hogla Char Bangladesh 1.2 11/10/2019 9:00 Boro Char Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 9:00 Bhatkul Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 9:00 Mugadi Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 8:00 Char Idris Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 8:00 Aithadi Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 9:00 Bara Char Kalia Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 9:00 Chandpur Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 8:00 Nilkamal Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 8:00 Fatehjangpur Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 9:00 Ahadi Bayatir Kandi Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 9:00 Baniagaon Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 10:00 Banari Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 9:00 Bara Krishnanagar Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 9:00 Amanullapur Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 7:00 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 7:00 Char Kali Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 8:00 Chiladi Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 7:00 Mahishkhola Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 10:00 Baghia Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 10:00 Adhara Bangladesh 1.1

11/10/2019 8:00 Damla Bangladesh 1.1 11/10/2019 8:00 Char Haim Bangladesh 1.0 11/10/2019 10:00 Aldi Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 12:00 Tulatali Bangladesh 1.0 11/10/2019 12:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 12:00 Banskhali Bangladesh 1.0 11/10/2019 7:00 Bausia Bangladesh 1.0 11/10/2019 11:00 Lamchhi Prasad Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 10:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh 1.0 11/10/2019 10:00 Aswadia Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 10:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 12:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 12:00 Maitbhanga Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 10:00 Miar Hat Bangladesh 1.0 11/10/2019 10:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 10:00 Kripalpur Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 10:00 Baraipur Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 10:00 Maijdi Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 10:00 Noakhali Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 7:00 Char Hijla Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 8:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh 1.0

11/10/2019 7:00 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh 1.0

Source and Disclaimer: 1. The track interpolated from projected forecast of IMD, GDACS and Windy.com on 12.00 to 17.00 BST on 09 November 2019. 2. Information from Different Sources (GDACS, IMD, and BMD) are compiled here. No information is generated nor authored by NAWG. 3. This report is only for internal use of Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh as preparatory activities not official information of GoB. 4. There will be no situation report as 72 hours needs assessment will proceed as per the HCTT contingency protocol.

For any kind of information please contact: 1. Kaiser Rejve; Director- Humanitarian and resilience; CARE Bangladesh E: [email protected]. 2. Md Jafar Iqbal, Coordinator-NAWG. M: +8801915177117, E: [email protected] 3. Apurba S Mahboob, TC_IM-NAWG, M: 01622837796, E: [email protected]