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FROM Fostering Interdependence to Managing Kristi Raik & András Rácz (eds.) post-crimea shift in eu-russia relations: from fostering interdependence to managing vulnerabilities Title: Post-Crimea Shift in EU-Russia Relations: From Fostering Interdependence to Managing Vulnerabilities Language editing: Refiner Translations OÜ; Martin Rickerd (freelance) Layout: Kalle Toompere Project assistants: Kristi Luigelaht, Kaarel Kullamaa Keywords: EU, Russia, interdependence, security, energy Disclaimer: The views and opinions contained in this report are solely those of its authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the International Centre for Defence and Security or any other organisation. ISBN: 978-9949-7331-5-6 (PRINT) ISBN: 978-9949-7331-6-3 (PDF) ©International Centre for Defence and Security 63/4 Narva Rd. 10152 Tallinn, Estonia [email protected], www.icds.ee 3 Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... 4 List of Tables, Figures and Maps ............................................................................................ 5 List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................ 6 1. Introduction: Competing Perspectives on Interdependence – Kristi Raik ............ 8 Part I: THE EU’S AND RUSSIA’S APPROACHES TO INTERDEPENDENCE 2. From Ostpolitik to EU-Russia Interdependence: Germany’s Perspective – Stefan Meister ....................................................................... 25 3. Interdependence as a Leitmotif in the EU’s Russia Policy: A Failure to Live Up to Expectations – Katrin Böttger .............................................. 45 4. Russia’s Perspective on EU-Russia Interdependence – Igor Gretskiy ..................... 58 5. Russia’s View of Interdependence: The Security Dimension – James Sherr ......... 79 6. The EU after 2014: Reducing Vulnerability by Building Resilience – Rein Tammsaar ........................................................................ 100 Part II: EU-RUSSIA INTERDEPENDENCE IN DIFFERENT SECTORS 7. Limited Interdependence in EU-Russia Trade – Heli Simola ................................ 123 8. Between Geopolitics and Market Rules: The EU’s Energy Interdependence with Russia – Anke Schmidt-Felzmann ....... 142 9. From Interdependence to Vulnerability: EU-Russia Relations in Finance - András Deák ....................................................... 162 10. Ties Severed from Both Sides: EU-Russia Mutual Dependence in the Defence Industry Sector – András Rácz ......................................................... 182 11. Business as Usual? Police Cooperation under a Cloud of Political Animosity – Ludo Block ........................................................... 204 12. EU-Russia Cross-Border Cooperation – Boris Kuznetsov & Alexander Sergunin ..................................................................... 222 13. Russian-Speakers in the European Union: Positive Interdependence or a Source of Vulnerability? – Anna Tiido ................ 250 Part III: CONCLUSIONS AND WAY AHEAD 14. Weakened Preconditions for Positive Interdependence – András Rácz & Kristi Raik .......................................... 269 15. EU-Russia Relations: Where Do We Go from Here? – Kadri Liik ........................ 276 References ............................................................................................................................... 287 About the Authors ................................................................................................................ 316 3 Acknowledgements This book is the outcome of a research project that was launched by the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute (EFPI), operating as an auton- omous unit under the International Centre for Defence and Secu- rity (ICDS) in Tallinn, in early 2018. The idea to review the nature and degree of interdependence between the EU and Russia, now that more than five years have passed since the outbreak of the conflict over Ukraine, took shape in numerous discussions with research- ers and practitioners from various EU member states and Russia. We are most grateful to all the colleagues who contributed to the report, allowing us to bring together the perspectives of major actors involved and to utilise expertise in various issue areas. The project benefited greatly from discussions among the authors and other experts at the seminar and workshop organised by EFPI/ICDS in Tallinn in early November 2018. A number of colleagues gave invaluable practical help in the process of transforming our ideas into an edited volume. We would like to thank in particular Kaarel Kullamaa for most diligent and helpful research assistance, Kristi Luigelaht for outstanding support with management of the project, and Martin Rickerd for his always thor- ough and professional language editing. We are also thankful to the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung for its support and encouragement, and particularly to Elisabeth Bauer for her keen interest and commitment to this research, without which the project could not have been realised. Kristi Raik and András Rácz Editors 4 5 List of Tables, Figures and Maps TABLES Table 1. Shares of the EU and Russia in each other’s goods trade, % (average 2015–17). ........................................................................................... 132 Table 2. Russia’s share of total trade in goods, individual EU countries, % (average 2015–17). ........................................................................................... 134 Table 3. Soviet-/Russian-made weaponry in service in EU member states, comparison of 2016 and 2018 data. ................................................................. 199 Table 4. EU–Russia CBC programme funding for 2014–2020 (million EUR). ..... 243 Table 5. Largest populations of Russian-speakers in the EU, 2017. ......................... 256 FIGURES Figure 1. EU28 (fixed composition) goods trade with Russia in 1993–2017, USD billion. .......................................................................................................... 124 Figure 2. Change in the USD value of Russian goods trade and Urals oil price, % yoy. ...................................................................................................................... 125 Figure 3. Change in the value of Russian goods imports from selected countries in 2014–17, % yoy. ................................................................................................ 137 MAPS Map 1. Baltic Sea Region CBC programme area, 2014–20. ..................................... 233 Map 2. Kolarctic programme area, 2014–20. .............................................................. 234 Map 3. Karelia CBC programme area, 2014–20. ........................................................ 236 Map 4. South-East Finland–Russia CBC area, 2014–20. .......................................... 237 Map 5. Estonia–Russia CBC programme area , 2014–20. ........................................ 238 Map 6. Latvia–Russia CBC programme area, 2014–20. ........................................... 239 Map 7. Lithuania–Russia CBC programme area, 2014–20. .................................... 240 Map 8. Poland–Russia CBC programme area, 2014–20. ......................................... 242 4 5 List of Abbreviations APC Armoured personnel carrier APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BSR Baltic Sea Region BSTF-OC Baltic Sea Task Force on Organised Crime CERT-EU Computer Emergency Response Team of the EU CBC Cross-border cooperation CBMs Confidence building measures CBR Central Bank of the Russian Federation CDP Capability Development Plan CDPF Cyber Defence Policy Framework CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany CEE Central and Eastern Europe CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe CSDP Common Security and Defense Policy CSO Civil Society Organisation CTA City Twins Association EAEU Eurasian Economic Union EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECSC European Coal and Steel Community ECT Energy Charter Treaty EDA European Defence Agency EEA European Economic Area EEAS European External Action Service EEC European Economic Community EFTA European Free Trade Association EIB European Investment Bank ENISA European Union Agency for Network and Information Security ENI European Neighbourhood Instrument ENPI European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument ERDF European Regional Development Fund ESCO European Cyber Security Organisation ESDP European Security and Defense Policy ESPO Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean oil pipeline EU European Union EU MS European Union Member States FAC Foreign Affairs Council 6 7 FDI Foreign Direct Investment G7 Group of Seven GDP Gross domestic product GRU Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, also known as the G.U. HFC Hybrid Fusion Cell iFDI Inward Foreign Direct Investments IFV Infantry fighting vehicle INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty LNG Liquefied natural gas MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MIC Military-industrial complex MVD Ministry of Interior of the Russian Federation NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCB National Central Bureau ND Northern Dimension NDEP Northern Dimension Environmental Partnership NDPHS Northern Dimension Partnerships in Public Health and Social Well-being NDPTL Northern Dimension Partnerships
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