•

RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS GLOBAL IN RUSSIA • 2019 • MARCH – JANUARY • 1 No. • 17 VOL.

Volume 17 IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS Bread andcircuses! RU Print ISSN1810-6374;Online2618-9844 S No. 1•JANUARY–MARCH2019 SIA ISSN 1810-6374

VOLUME 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY – MARCH • 2019

FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH Moscow 2019 FOUNDATION Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS Print ISSN 1810-6374 Volume 17 • No. 1 • JANUARY-MARCH • 2019 Online ISSN 2618-9844

EDITORIAL OFFICE Fyodor Lukyanov Editor-in-Chief BOARD OF TRUSTEES Natalya Kostromskaya Deputy Editor-in-Chief Vladimir POTANIN Alexander Solovyov Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Chairman) Interros Holding Company Glenn Diesen Yevgeniya Prokopchuk Natalia Zablotskite Associate Editor Assistant to Editor-in-Chief Computer Makeup Igor ASHURBEILI Irina Palekhova Vladimir Shabalin Andrei Yevdokimov Chairman, Board Administrative Director Web Editor Circulation of Directors "Socium-A" Robert Mulcahy, [email protected] [email protected] Ruslan YUNUSOV Alexander Zakharov Yelena Blinnikova Director General Copy Editors Assistant to Chairman of Russian Quantum Center of the Editorial Board

BOARD OF ADVISORS FOUNDERS: Anatoly Adamishin Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs of USSR (1986–1990), First Vice- COUNCIL ON FOREIGN Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia (1993–1994), Minister of CIS AND DEFENSE POLICY Affairs for Russia (1997–1998).Moscow, Russia • Olga Butorina Dr. Sc. (Economics), Professor. Head of Chair, European Integration THE RUSSIAN Dpt., Advisor to the President, Moscow State University а Foreign NEWS & INFORMATION Affairs.Moscow, Russia AGENCY RIA NOVOSTI • Alexander Filippov Doctor of Social Science, Full Professor with National Research University–Higher School of Economics, Head of the Center RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL of Fundamental Social Science of the Poletayev Institute of AFFAIRS COUNCIL Humanitarian Historical and Theoretical Studies.Moscow, Russia Leonid Grigoriev Chief advisor to the head of the Analysis Center under the PUBLISHED BY Government of the Russian Federation, Head of the World Economy FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH Chair of the World Economy and International Affairs Department FOUNDATION of the National Research University–Higher School of Economics. 17 Malaya Ordynka Str., Moscow, Russia Moscow 119017, Russia Sergey Kravets Executive Editor of The Great Russian Encyclopedia publishers, Chief of the Religious and Research Center Orthodox Encyclopedia. Address: Moscow, Russia 17 Malaya Ordynka Str., Andrey Lankov PhD in History, Prof., Kookmin University, College of Social Studies. Moscow 119017, Russia Seoul, Republic of Korea tel.: +7 (495) 980-7353 fax: +7 (495) 937-7611 Alexander Lomanov Dr. Sc. (History). Chief Researcher at the Institute of Far Eastern e-mail: [email protected] Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences. Moscow, Russia http://www.globalaffairs.ru Alexei Miller Dr. Sc. (History). leading researcher at the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Registered with and is a professor at the Central European University in Budapest. THE MINISTRY St.-Petersburg, Russia OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Yuri Slezkine Professor of History, Director of the Institute of Slavic, East FOR PRESS, TV AND RADIO European, and Eurasian Studies at the University of California, BROADCASTING AND MEANS Berkeley. U.S.A. OF MASS COMMUNICATION PI No. FS 77-52915 Anatoly Vishnevsky Dr. Sc. (Economics), Director of the Institute of Demography of the 20 February 2013 State University- Higher School of Economics. Moscow, Russia

Printed by Typography “GART” Order No. 295 Circulation: 500 copies The views of the authors do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of the Editors. The responsibility for the authenticity and accuracy of the facts in the published articles rests with the authors.

© Foreign Policy Research Foundation, 2019 All rights reserved. Reproduction in part or whole is allowed only with the explicit authorization of the publisher. EDITORIAL BOARD

Sergei Karaganov Dr. Sc. (History), Honorary Chairman, Sergei Lavrov Minister of Foreign Affairs of the (Chairman) Presidium of the Council on Foreign (in a personal capacity) Russian Federation. Moscow, Russia and Defense Policy; Dean of the Vladimir Lukin Dr. Sc. (History), Prof., Ambassador Faculty of World Economics and Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary World Politics of the National of Russian Federation, member Research University Higher School of of The Federation Council of Economics. Moscow, Russia the Federal Assembly of Russian Martti Ahtisaari President of Finland, 1994–2000. Federation; research professor at NRU Finland Higher School of Economics. Moscow, Graham Allison Douglas Dillon Professor of Russia Government, John F. Kennedy School Fyodor Lukyanov Chairman of Presidium of the of Government at Harvard University. Council on Foreign and Defense Cambridge, Massachusets, U.S.A. Policy; Editor-in-Chief, Russia in Alexei Arbatov Member of the Russian Academy Global Affairs, research professor at of Sciences; Director, Center of NRU Higher School of Economics. International Security, Institute of the Moscow, Russia World Economy and International Vladimir Mau Dr. Sc. (Economics), Prof., Director, Relations, Russian Academy of Russian Academy of the National Sciences. Moscow, Russia Economy and Public Administration Alexander Avdeyev Ambassador Extraordinary and under the President of the Russian (in a personal capacity) Plenipotentiary. Moscow, Russia Federation. Moscow, Russia Director, French Institute of Lev Belousov Dr. Sc. (History), Prof. of Moscow Thierry de Montbrial International Relations; Member, (Deputy Chairman) State University, Head of the Academie des Sciences Morales et Department of Modern History of Politiques, Institut de France; Founder European Countries, Moscow State and Chairman of the World Policy University. Moscow, Russia Conference (WPC). France C. Fred Bergsten Ph.D. (Economics), Senior fellow Dr. Sc. (History), Prof., Chairman, and director emeritus, Peterson Vyacheslav Nikonov Polity Foundation; Chairman, Institute for International Economics; (Deputy Chairman) Russky Mir Foundation; Chairman, former Assistant Secretary, Treasury State Duma Committee on Departmen. Washington, D.С., U.S.A. Education; dean, School of Public Carl Bildt Prime Minister of Sweden Administration at Moscow State (1991–1994), Minister of Foreign University. Moscow, Russia Affairs of Sweden (2006–2014), Co- First Deputy Head of the Russian Chair European Council on Foreign Sergei Prikhodko Government Office.Moscow, Russia Relations. Halmstad, Sweden (in a personal capacity) Vladimir Grigoryev Deputy Head of the Federal Agency on Gideon Rose Editor-in-Chief of Foreign Affairs; (in a personal capacity) Press and Mass Communication of the member of the Council on Foreign Russian Federation. Moscow, Russia Relations. U.S.A. Igor Ivanov Dr. Sc. (History), President, Russian Vladimir Ryzhkov Dr. Sc. (History), prof., NRU Higher Council on Foreign Relations, Prof., School of Economics. Moscow, Russia Moscow State Institute of International Horst Teltschik Head, Foreign Policy Office of the Relation. Moscow, Russia Chancellor of Germany (1982–1998); Karl Kaiser Prof., former director, German headed the Munich Security Council for Foreign Policy; Senior Conference (1999–2008). Rottach- Associate Emeritus, Harvard Kennedy Egern, Germany School; Professor emeritus at the Anatoly Torkunov Member of the Russian Academy of University of Bonn. Bonn, Germany Sciences; Prof., Director, Moscow State Irina Khakamada Dr. Sc. (Economics), Politician, Institute of International Relations; lecturer (Moscow State Institute of Ambassador Extraordinary and International Relation), journalist, Plenipotentiary. Moscow, Russia civic leader. Moscow, Russia Yuri Ushakov Aide to the Russian President. Moscow, Ivan Krastev Chairman of the Centre for Liberal (in a personal capacity) Russia Strategies in Sofia, permanent fellow Lord William Wallace Prof., London School of Economics; at the IWM (Institute of Human in the past Council Member of the Sciences) in Vienna. Bulgaria Royal Institute of International Affairs. Andrei Kokoshin Member of the Russian Academy London, U.K. of Sciences; Director, Institute of Xiong Guangkai General (ret.), Adjunct Professor International Security. Moscow, Russia at Qinghua University and Beijing Mikhail Komissar Director General, Interfax News University. China Agency. Moscow, Russia Igor Yurgens Dr. Sc. (Economics), Chairman of Konstantin Kosachev PhD (Law); Charmain of International the Board, Institute of Contemporary Affairs Committee of the Federation Development (INSOR). Moscow, Council (upper chamber of Russian Russia Parliament). Moscow, Russia Sergei Zverev President, KROS Public Relations Yaroslav Kuzminov Dr. Sc. (Economics), Rector, National Company; member of the NRU Higher Research University—Higher School of School of Economics's Academic Economics. Moscow, Russia Council. Moscow, Russia Contents

Fyodor A. Lukyanov The House That Built Who? 5

THE CRUMBLING ORDER

Andrey V. Kortunov Between Polycentrism and Bipolarity 10 Andrei P. Tsygankov From Global Order to Global Transition 52

THE LOOMING CONFLICT

Alexei V. Fenenko “Long Peace” and Nuclear Weapons 72 Alan W. Cafruny Can the United States Contain China? 100

THE CHANGING CONTEXT

Vassily A. Kuznetsov Western Asia and North Africa in the Neo-Modernity Context 124 Darya Yu. Bazarkina, Yevgeny N. Pashentsev Artificial Intelligence and New Threats to International Psychological Security 147 Dmitry V. Poletaev From Mistrust to Solidarity or More Mistrust? 171

INTERVIEW

Ivan Krastev: “We do not dream of the future anymore, we’re scared of it.” 202

REVIEW

Glenn Diesen War with Russia? 212