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Annual Meeting Southern California Earthquake Center 2010Annual Meeting Proceedings and Abstracts, Volume XX September 11-15, 2010 S C E C an NSF+USGS center ANNUAL MEETING of the Southern California Earthquake Center Proceedings and Abstracts, Volume XX Cover Image: Section of the Borrego fault rupture formed during the 4 April 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. (Peter Gold, Austin Elliott, Michael Oskin, and Alejandro Hinojosa. Image was generated in LidarViewer software developed by Oliver Kreylos at the W.M. Keck Center for Active Visualization in the Earth Sciences (KeckCAVES) at UC Davis.) Center Organization SCEC ORGANIZATION SCEC ADVISORY COUNCIL Center Director, Tom Jordan Mary Lou Zoback, Chair, Risk Management Solutions Deputy Director, Greg Beroza Jeffrey Freymueller, Chair-Designate, U. Alaska Associate Director for Administration, John McRaney Gail Atkinson, U. Western Ontario Associate Director for Communication, Education, Roger Bilham, U. of Colorado (new member 2010) and Outreach, Mark Benthien Donna Eberhart-Phillips, UC Davis Associate Director for Information Technology, Phil Maechling John Filson, U.S. Geological Survey (Emeritus) Special Projects and Events Coordinator, Tran Huynh Jim Goltz, CalEMA Research Contracts and Grants Coordinator, Steve Mahin, PEER Karen Young Anne Meltzer, Lehigh University Administrative Coordinator, Deborah Gormley Denis Mileti, U. Colorado (Emeritus) Education Programs Manager, Robert de Groot M. Meghan Miller, UNAVCO Digital Products Manager, John Marquis Farzad Naeim, John A. Martin & Associates Research Programmers, Scott Callaghan, Sandarsh (new member 2010) Kumar, Maria Liukis, Kevin Milner, Patrick Small John Vidale, U. Washington (new member 2010) Systems Administrator, John Yu Andrew Whittaker, U. Buffalo (new member 2010) SCEC PLANNING COMMITTEE SCEC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Chair, Greg Beroza Tom Jordan, Chair, USC Seismology, Egill Hauksson, Elizabeth Cochran Lisa Grant-Ludwig, Vice-Chair, UCI Tectonic Geodesy, Jessica Moraleda, Rowena Lohman Ralph Archuleta, UCSB Earthquake Geology, Mike Oskin, James Dolan Peter Bird, UCLA Unified Structural Representation, John Shaw, David Bowman, CSUF Kim Olsen Tom Brocher, USGS Menlo, liaison (non-voting) Fault and Rupture Mechanics, Judith Chester, Ruth Harris Emily Brodsky, UCSC Crustal Deformation Modeling, Liz Hearn, Jim Brune, UNR Kaj Johnson Steve Day, SDSU Lithospheric Architecture and Dynamics, Paul Davis, Thorsten Becker James Dieterich, UCR Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability, Yuri Fialko, UCSD Terry Tullis, Jeanne Hardebeck Tom Herring, MIT Ground Motion Prediction, Brad Aagaard, Rob Graves Ken Hudnut, USGS Pasadena, liaison (non-voting) Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, Paul Somerville, Nadia Lapusta, CalTech Nicolas Luco Jim Rice, Harvard Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation, Tom Rockwell, Kate Scharer Paul Segall, Stanford Working Group on California Earthquake Bruce Shaw, Columbia Probabilities, Ned Field Jill McCarthy, USGS Golden, liaison (non-voting) Collaboratory for the tudy of Earthquake Predictability, Tom Jordan, Danijel Schorlemmer Extreme Ground Motion, Tom Hanks Community Modeling Environment, Phil Maechling ii | Southern California Earthquake Center Table of Contents Table of Contents SCEC ANNUAL MEETING PROGRAM............................................................................................ 1 WORKSHOP DESCRIPTIONS AND AGENDAS.............................................................................. 5 Workshop on Transient Anomalous Strain Detection ......................................................... 5 Extreme Ground Motion (ExGM) Workshop: The Last Hurrah ........................................ 6 Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Workshop....................................................................... 7 Coulomb 3.2 Short Course ....................................................................................................... 8 Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation (SoSAFE) Workshop........................................... 9 The Great California ShakeOut Workshop for Science Educators................................... 10 Engineering Workshop on Tall Building Safety ................................................................. 11 STATE OF SCEC, 2010 .................................................................................................................. 13 Welcome to the 2010 Annual Meeting ................................................................................. 13 Goals of the Meeting ............................................................................................................... 13 SCEC4 Proposal ....................................................................................................................... 14 Organization and Leadership................................................................................................ 17 Center Budget and Project Funding ..................................................................................... 20 Communication, Education, and Outreach......................................................................... 21 A Word of Thanks ................................................................................................................... 23 REPORT OF THE ADVISORY COUNCIL....................................................................................... 24 SCEC COMMUNICATION, EDUCATION, AND OUTREACH........................................................ 36 RESEARCH ACCOMPLISHMENTS............................................................................................... 46 Disciplinary Activities ............................................................................................................ 46 Seismology ........................................................................................................................ 46 Tectonic Geodesy .............................................................................................................. 63 Earthquake Geology .......................................................................................................... 67 Interdisciplinary Focus Areas................................................................................................ 70 Unified Structural Representation ................................................................................... 70 Fault Rupture and Mechanics.......................................................................................... 77 Crustal Deformation Modeling ........................................................................................ 88 Lithospheric Architecture and Dynamics......................................................................... 92 Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability..................................................................... 105 Ground Motion Prediction ............................................................................................. 109 Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis................................................................................. 120 Special Projects....................................................................................................................... 126 Southern San Andreas Fault Evaluation ....................................................................... 126 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities ................................................ 126 Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability .............................................. 126 Extreme Ground Motion Project.................................................................................... 128 Community Modeling Environment.............................................................................. 132 2010 SCEC Annual Meeting | iii Table of Contents DRAFT 2011 SCIENCE PLAN ......................................................................................................139 I. Introduction.........................................................................................................................139 II. Guidelines for Proposal Submission ..............................................................................139 III. SCEC Organization..........................................................................................................140 IV. Proposal Categories.........................................................................................................141 V. Evaluation Process and Criteria......................................................................................142 VI. Coordination of Research between SCEC and USGS-EHRP.....................................144 VII. SCEC3 Science Priorities ...............................................................................................144 VIII. Disciplinary Activities..................................................................................................146 A. Seismology..................................................................................................................146 B. Tectonic Geodesy ........................................................................................................147 C. Earthquake Geology....................................................................................................148 IX. Interdisciplinary Focus Areas ........................................................................................150 A. Unified Structural Representation (USR).................................................................150
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