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Climate History Spanning the Past 17,000 Years at the Bottom of a South Island Lake

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Climate History Spanning the Past 17,000 Years at the Bottom of a South Island Lake VOL. 98 NO. 10 OCT 2017 Lakebed Cores Record Shifting Winds Cell Phone App Aids Irrigation Earth & Space Science News Red/Blue and Peer Review A New Clue about CO2 UPTAKE Act Now to Save on Registration and Housing Early Registration Deadline: 3 November 2017, 11:59 P.M. ET Housing Deadline: 15 November 2017, 11:59 P.M. ET fallmeeting.agu.org Earth & Space Science News Contents OCTOBER 2017 PROJECT UPDATE VOLUME 98, ISSUE 10 12 Shifting Winds Write Their History on a New Zealand Lake Bed A team of scientists finds a year-by-year record of climate history spanning the past 17,000 years at the bottom of a South Island lake. PROJECT UPDATE 18 Growing More with Less Using Cell Phones and Satellite Data Researchers from the University of Washington and Pakistan are using 21st-century technology to revive farming as a profitable profession in the Indus 24 Valley. OPINION COVER Red/Blue Assessing a New Clue 10 and Peer Review Healthy skepticism has long formed the to How Much Carbon Plants Take Up foundation of the scientific peer review Current climate models disagree on how much carbon dioxide land ecosystems take up process. Will anything substantively new be for photosynthesis. Tracking the stronger carbonyl sulfide signal could help. gleaned from a red team/blue team exercise? Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 1 Contents DEPARTMENTS Editor in Chief Barbara T. Richman: AGU, Washington, D. C., USA; eos_ [email protected] Editors Christina M. S. Cohen Wendy S. Gordon Carol A. Stein California Institute Ecologia Consulting, Department of Earth and of Technology, Pasadena, Austin, Texas, USA; Environmental Sciences, Calif., USA; wendy@ecologiaconsulting University of Illinois at cohen@srl .caltech.edu .com Chicago, Chicago, Ill., José D. Fuentes David Halpern USA; [email protected] Department of Meteorology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pennsylvania State Pasadena, Calif., USA; University, University davidhalpern29@gmail Park, Pa., USA; .com [email protected] Editorial Advisory Board Mark G. Flanner, Atmospheric Sciences John W. Lane, Near-Surface Nicola J. Fox, Space Physics GeophysicsJian Lin, Tectonophysics 41 and Aeronomy Figen Mekik, Paleoceanography Peter Fox, Earth and Space Science and Paleoclimatology Informatics Jerry L. Miller, Ocean Sciences 31–37 AGU News Steve Frolking, Biogeosciences Thomas H. Painter, Cryosphere Sciences Edward J. Garnero, Study of the Philip J. Rasch, Global Environmental 2017 Class of AGU Fellows Earth’s Deep Interior Change Michael N. Gooseff, Hydrology Eric M. Riggs, Education Announced; Returning Fall Meeting Brian C. Gunter, Geodesy Adrian Tuck, Nonlinear Geophysics Chair Looks to New Orleans and Kristine C. Harper, History of Geophysics Sergio Vinciguerra, Mineral Beyond; Communities and Experts Sarah M. Hörst, Planetary Sciences and Rock Physics Susan E. Hough, Natural Hazards Andrew C. Wilcox, Earth and Planetary Collaborate for Climate Resilience. Emily R. Johnson, Volcanology, Surface Processes Geochemistry, and Petrology Earle Williams, Atmospheric Keith D. Koper, Seismology and Space Electricity 38–42 Research Spotlight Robert E. Kopp, Geomagnetism Mary Lou Zoback, Societal Impacts and Paleomagnetism and Policy Sciences 8 Natural Resource Exploitation Could Reach New Depths; Are Staff Faith A. Ishii, Production Manager; Melissa A. Tribur, Senior Humans to Blame for Worsening Production and Design: Production Specialist; Elizabeth Thompson, Production Assistant, Beth Bagley, Heat Waves in China?; A New Manager, Design and Branding; Travis Frazier and Valerie Friedman, Senior Graphics Model for River Meanders; Can Specialists Water Vapor Help Forecast When a Editorial: Peter L. Weiss, Manager/Senior News Editor; Mohi Kumar, Scientific Content Editor; Randy Showstack, Senior News Writer; JoAnna Wendel, News Writer; Volcano Will Blow?; Hubble Reveals Liz Castenson, Editorial and Production Coordinator; Kimberly M. S. Cartier, News Less Studied Regions of Jupiter’s Writing and Production Intern Auroras; Sediment Cores Reveal the Marketing: Jamie R. Liu, Manager, Marketing; Angelo Bouselli and Taryn Hudson, Marketing Program Managers; Ashwini Yelamanchili, Digital Marketing Coordinator Black Current’s Past Life; Tsunami Advertising: Tracy LaMondue, Director, Development; Tel: +1-202-777-7372; Records Show Increased Hazards for Email: [email protected] Chile’s Central Coast; A Powerful ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may 33 New Tool for Research. be photocopied by individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is also granted to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific books and journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Office. 43–47 Positions Available Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by the American Geophysical Union, 3–9 News 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid Current job openings in the Earth at Washington, D. C., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address Indonesian Cave Reveals Nearly and space sciences. changes to Member Service Center, 2000 Florida Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009, 5,000 Years of Tsunamis; Satellite USA. Observations Could Help Forecast Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900; Fax: +1-202-328-0566; Tel. orders in U.S.: 1-800-966-2481; Email: [email protected]. an Eruption’s End; Engineering 48 Postcards from the Field Use AGU’s Geophysical Electronic Manuscript Submissions system to submit New Foundations for a Thawing A researcher perches on a cliff in a manuscript: http://eos-submit.agu.org. Arctic; Quakes Pack More Punch Hawaii to study basalt weathering Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect in Eastern Than in Central United and erosion. official positions of the American Geophysical Union unless States; David S. Evans (1936–2016). expressly stated. Christine W. McEntee, Executive Director/CEO On the Cover 10–11 Opinion Credit: Bahadir Tanriover/iStock/ Red/Blue and Peer Review. Getty Images Plus. facebook.com/AmericanGeophysicalUnion @AGU_Eos linkedin.com/company/american-geophysical-union youtube.com/user/AGUvideos 2 // Eos October 2017 NEWS of recurrence intervals, the team suggests. Indonesian Cave Reveals That’s particularly important in the Indian Ocean, a region that’s prone to megathrust Nearly 5,000 Years of Tsunamis earthquakes and, accordingly, large tsunamis. Those massive waves include the deadliest tsunami in history, which was unleashed in 2004 not far offshore from where the cave is he cave didn’t look that promising from Rubin and his colleagues showed that at located and which killed more than 200,000 the outside, Charlie Rubin remembers. least 11 tsunamis had swept over the region people. T But when the earthquake geologist and over a span of about 5,000 years. But the mas- The geological record contained within the his colleagues walked in and started digging, sive waves were not regular in time; periods of Banda Aceh cave is “extraordinary,” said Brian “our jaws dropped,” he said. The researchers McAdoo, a tsunami scientist at Yale-​­NUS noticed that a depression in the floor of the The massive waves were College in Singapore. This study also rep- cave—near Banda Aceh, Indonesia—con- resents the first time that cave data have been tained distinct stratigraphy: dark layers of not regular in time; used to measure tsunami recurrence intervals, organic material separated by clearly defined Mc Adoo said. layers of lighter- colored sand. periods of calm ranged “We looked at each other and wondered if from millennia to merely A Layer Cake the sand was tsunami sand,” Rubin said. After In 2011 and 2012, Rubin and his colleagues closer examination, the team members real- decades. excavated six trenches at the rear of the 120- ized they had found a natural record of tsuna- meter-long​­ coastal cave. Beneath a crust of mis sweeping sand repeatedly into the cave sand topped with bat guano, they dug into over thousands of years. By radiocarbon dating calm ranged from millennia to merely alternating layers of sand and organic mate- the sandy layers, the researchers were able to decades. This finding—that tsunami recur- rial that reached depths of 2 meters in some achieve what’s often thought of as a holy grail rence intervals are highly variable—is proof places. The scientists carefully collected tiny in tsunami science: a reconstruction of when that regional hazard mitigation plans should pieces of charcoal and shells from the layers previous tsunamis occurred thousands of be based on the high likelihood of future and radiocarbon dated the material in the years in the past. destructive tsunamis rather than on estimates laboratory. Using these radiocarbon mea- surements, the team calcu- lated the most likely age of each of the 11 buried layers of sand and therefore the approximate date of each tsu- nami. The researchers found that the 11 sand layers spanned roughly 4,500 years, from about 7,400 to 2,900 years ago. However, the guano- encrusted twelfth and upper- most sand layer—which con- tained shreds of clothing, suggesting it was deposited very recently—differed from the stack of alternating deposits beneath it: Its bot- tom face was jagged and irregular, unlike the smooth boundaries between the deeper layers. The scientists suspect that this irregularity resulted from powerful waves from the 2004 tsunami triggered by the Sumatra- Andaman earth- quake sweeping into the cave, scraping away previously deposited material, and liter- ally erasing the geological record laid down after Kerry Sieh (left) and Charlie Rubin use fluorescent lights to look for charcoal and shells in sediment layers in a cave in Indonesia to use to 900 B.C.E. The older layers of radiocarbon date tsunami deposits. Credit: Earth Observatory of Singapore sand were probably never dis- Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 3 NEWS rupted in a similar way because they’re located in a natural depression in the cave, Satellite Observations Could Help Rubin said. “They’re packed down and they’re protected.” Forecast an Eruption’s End The research team reported its findings in July in Nature Communications ( http:// bit .
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