Will Vote-by-Mail Elections Increase Participation? Evidence from California Counties (! (! (! (! Thad Kousser (!(! (! University of California, San Diego
[email protected] Megan Mullin Temple University (!
[email protected] (! A Project Sponsored by the John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation (! (! (! (! (!(! Voters in small precincts throughout California cast ballots exclusively by mail. The maps show mail ballot precincts from the 2002 general election in selected portions of Orange and Alameda counties. Executive Summary Advocates of mail ballot elections predict that voting by mail will produce higher turnout and allow voters to become more informed. Our study tests these predictions by taking advantage of a “natural experiment” in which many California voters are assigned to vote by mail because they live in less populous precincts. By matching these mail ballot precincts with traditional polling place precincts that contain voters with similar demographic characteristics, we are able to observe the effects of voting by mail on comparable groups of voters taking part in the same elections. We find that: • Voting by mail does not increase turnout in presidential and gubernatorial general elections. In fact, turnout was 2.6 to 2.9 percentage points lower in mail ballot precincts, according to our analysis of two general elections held in representative samples of 18 and 9 counties. • Voters who cast their ballots by mail in general elections are more likely to skip downballot races, another finding that runs counter to the expectations of vote-by-mail advocates. • However, voting by mail appeared to bring an average 7.6 percentage point turnout increase in local special elections, which have much lower participation rates overall.