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Mohammed Bin Salman's Elevation and the Way Forward Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward Imad K. Harb August 1, 2017 Imad K. Harb Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al The Way Here Saud went on vacation in Morocco on July 24 For at least a month before his departure to and left his 31-year old son, Crown Prince Morocco, King Salman ordered essential Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), in charge of leadership changes in the country, beginning running the affairs of the Kingdom. This with the June 21 dismissal of his nephew, mission will test the abilities and aptitude of the former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef new crown prince for managing––even it were (MbN) and the appointment of his own son, for a short month––the intricacies of a political Mohammed, to the post. The king also stripped system facing the challenges of domestic bin Nayef of his job as Minister of the Interior concerns and regional and international affairs. and chief counterterrorism official, and This interregnum will probably give Saudi appointed MbN’s inexperienced nephew, Arabians, fellow Gulf residents, other Arabs, Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef, as his and the world at large an opportunity to gauge replacement. As the new crown prince, how he handles the pressures of rule. More Mohammed bin Salman retained both of his importantly, it will shed light on how he will posts as Minister of Defense and president of avoid the pitfalls of absolute power. the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, which oversees economic change in the Still, with King Salman reportedly suffering country. He is in charge of the kingdom’s from health problems, Prince Mohammed may ambitious “Vision 2030” plan to revamp the now be at the cusp of taking over a kingdom economy and lessen its reliance on the where 51 percent of the population in under 25 hydrocarbon sector. and the economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon receipts. Saudi Arabia is also in its third year of King Salman also reorganized security a stalemated war in Yemen, remains locked in a institutions in the Kingdom in such a fashion as dispute with Qatar, and risks losing a coveted to increase his and his son’s control over most leadership position in the Arab world. Indeed, centers of power. In a move set to consolidate Prince Mohammed will soon find himself––at a counterterrorism activities and domestic relatively early age––in charge of a kingdom intelligence, he established a new agency, the fraught with problems emanating from Presidency of State Security, to handle much of controversial decisions and unpreparedness for the Ministry of the Interior’s mission––which the contingencies of political, economic, and under bin Nayef was the fulcrum of all security social modernization. The responsibilities he activities. The new agency will be headed by an assumed since first coming onto the scene, after old hand at the ministry, General Abdulaziz bin his father became crown prince in 2012, have Mohammed al-Howairini, and will incorporate not been enough to prepare him for the myriad its departments of investigations, special challenges ahead. security and emergency forces, security aviation, technical affairs, and the national 1 | Arab Center Washington DC Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward information center. Finally, in addition to would not be a threat within the royal family increasing the number of Mohammed bin and who will serve him obediently. MbS is also Salman’s assistants, the king also dismissed the sure to face a backlash over the social and chief of the royal guard, General Hamad al- economic repercussions engendered by “Vision Awhaly, and appointed General Suheil al- 2030.” It is possible that religious authorities Mutiri in his place. may now want to hedge their bets and not appear too opposed to bin Salman’s social Interestingly, King Salman left the leadership of agenda, and Saudi citizens affected by economic the Saudi Arabian National Guard intact. changes may temporarily understand the Headed by his nephew Prince Miteb bin necessity for reform. Just as importantly, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, the National Guard is Mohammed bin Salman will most assuredly one of the royal family’s best institutional links grapple with thorny issues in the regional and to powerful tribal formations in the Kingdom international arenas that will test his mettle, but that helped the Al Saud establish the modern he has to start by reestablishing Saudi Arabia’s state in the first half of the 20th century. It is an reputation as a stable country despite the auxiliary military force with social services, appearances of instability. weaponry, and training. Prince Miteb was appointed Minister of the National Guard by his Restoring the Reputation of Stability late father, King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, in The drastic measures King Salman instituted in 2013 and was retained in his post when King the security realm were first and foremost Salman ascended to the throne in January 2015. intended to ease his son’s ascension to the He probably represents a challenge to throne. The king’s decision to eviscerate the Mohammed bin Salman’s rise. Indeed, the Ministry of the Interior cannot be seen except possibility of stripping him of his power base at through the lens of stripping Mohammed bin the same time King Salman removed Nayef’s power base of effectual influence. Mohammed bin Nayef may have been too much Within the structure of power centers that at that time, although there is no telling what constitute the rule of the Al Saud, the ministry the future may hold. was MbN’s––and before him his father’s, the late Nayef bin Abdulaziz––bailiwick and As heir apparent and an ambitious young became the central domestic security crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman will have organization. His ouster as Minister of the several issues to confront as soon as he assumes Interior, together with revoking his position as power as king. There is no indication as to crown prince, are bound to anger many in the whom he may choose for a crown prince, since ministry and its affiliates. Thus Mohammed bin his father did not appoint someone to his Salman’s very important mission now is to gain Deputy Crown Prince position. But there the loyalty of the security constituency in charge should be no doubt that he will choose one who of defending the realm from extremists and August 2017 | 2 Imad K. Harb terrorists, which bin Nayef had succeeded in with Qatar. First, Mohammed bin Salman must neutralizing. This is a top priority as the come clean regarding the United Arab kingdom’s stability faces renewed challenges Emirates’ hacking of Qatari sites and from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the so- dissemination of false information attributed to called Islamic State, and Yemen, to name only a the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al few. Thani. If MbS knew beforehand that this was planned, his credibility regarding the ongoing Most dangerous in this regard, however, are the Gulf crisis and other affairs will surely suffer. If widely-publicized stories about the pressure on he did not, he would do well for his country and Mohammed bin Nayef to abdicate his position future rule to admit to a serious mistake. as crown prince because of a supposed drug Developments since the end of May––when the addiction problem. Despite media reports about Kingdom, along with the United Arab Emirates, a smooth transition and public appearances of Bahrain, and Egypt began their anti-Qatar amity––with MbS and MbN exchanging campaign––have proven that the crisis was a pleasantries and the latter’s pledge of fiasco, at least in public relations terms. Qatar, allegiance—other reports from inside the on the other hand, has for all intents and Kingdom paint a picture of coercion and purposes succeeded in overcoming the effects intrigue. As for MbN’s alleged drug problem, of the Saudi-led blockade and has garnered the story was found to have been concocted by Arab and international sympathy and support an ally of bin Salman in the royal court, Saud al- for the way it has handled the crisis. In the Qahtani. What is even worse are reports that meantime, the four-state bloc continues to sink Mohammed bin Nayef has actually been placed deeper in the hole it dug by insisting on under house arrest and his guards replaced, unachievable demands from Qatar, in the eliciting outrage privately from American process making it harder and costlier to retreat. officials who have previously worked with him. Indeed, this report has prompted Human In addition to the public relations problem Rights Watch to petition Saudi Arabian Foreign precipitated by Saudi Arabia and its cohorts, the Minister Adel al-Jubeir for news of MbN’s current impasse threatens the security of the confinement. Such treatment of a Saudi royal is entire Gulf Cooperation Council, as an alliance conducive neither to a stable political system and as a collective of individual states with nor to an ascending young crown prince. common interests. Indeed, the crisis arguably represents Saudi Arabia’s most urgent external The GCC Crisis challenge because of its leading role in the Another aspect of Mohammed bin Salman’s GCC’s institutions and endeavors. mission to restore Saudi Arabia’s reputation and position in the Gulf and the wider Middle In strategic terms, the situation in the Gulf is East is to work diligently to end the Gulf crisis pushing the GCC toward a colossal failure that 3 | Arab Center Washington DC Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward its members may not be able to prevent or risk more damage to the kingdom’s reputation reverse.
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