Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward

Imad K. Harb

August 1, 2017 Imad K. Harb

Saudi Arabia’s Salman bin Abdulaziz Al The Way Here Saud went on vacation in Morocco on July 24 For at least a month before his departure to and left his 31-year old son, Crown Morocco, King Salman ordered essential (MbS), in charge of leadership changes in the country, beginning running the affairs of the Kingdom. This with the June 21 dismissal of his nephew, mission will test the abilities and aptitude of the former Mohammed bin Nayef new crown prince for managing––even it were (MbN) and the appointment of his own son, for a short month––the intricacies of a political Mohammed, to the post. The king also stripped system facing the challenges of domestic bin Nayef of his job as Minister of the Interior concerns and regional and international affairs. and chief counterterrorism official, and This interregnum will probably give Saudi appointed MbN’s inexperienced nephew, Arabians, fellow Gulf residents, other Arabs, Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef, as his and the world at large an opportunity to gauge replacement. As the new crown prince, how he handles the pressures of rule. More Mohammed bin Salman retained both of his importantly, it will shed light on how he will posts as Minister of Defense and president of avoid the pitfalls of absolute power. the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, which oversees economic change in the Still, with King Salman reportedly suffering country. He is in charge of the kingdom’s from health problems, Prince Mohammed may ambitious “Vision 2030” plan to revamp the now be at the cusp of taking over a kingdom economy and lessen its reliance on the where 51 percent of the population in under 25 hydrocarbon sector. and the economy relies heavily on hydrocarbon receipts. is also in its third year of King Salman also reorganized security a stalemated war in , remains locked in a institutions in the Kingdom in such a fashion as dispute with , and risks losing a coveted to increase his and his son’s control over most leadership position in the Arab world. Indeed, centers of power. In a move set to consolidate Prince Mohammed will soon find himself––at a counterterrorism activities and domestic relatively early age––in charge of a kingdom intelligence, he established a new agency, the fraught with problems emanating from Presidency of State Security, to handle much of controversial decisions and unpreparedness for the Ministry of the Interior’s mission––which the contingencies of political, economic, and under bin Nayef was the fulcrum of all security social modernization. The responsibilities he activities. The new agency will be headed by an assumed since first coming onto the scene, after old hand at the ministry, General Abdulaziz bin his father became crown prince in 2012, have Mohammed al-Howairini, and will incorporate not been enough to prepare him for the myriad its departments of investigations, special challenges ahead. security and emergency forces, security aviation, technical affairs, and

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Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward

information center. Finally, in addition to would not be a threat within the royal family increasing the number of Mohammed bin and who will serve him obediently. MbS is also Salman’s assistants, the king also dismissed the sure to face a backlash over the social and chief of the royal guard, General Hamad al- economic repercussions engendered by “Vision Awhaly, and appointed General Suheil al- 2030.” It is possible that religious authorities Mutiri in his place. may now want to hedge their bets and not appear too opposed to bin Salman’s social Interestingly, King Salman left the leadership of agenda, and Saudi citizens affected by economic the Saudi Arabian National Guard intact. changes may temporarily understand the Headed by his nephew Prince Miteb bin necessity for reform. Just as importantly, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, the National Guard is Mohammed bin Salman will most assuredly one of the royal family’s best institutional links grapple with thorny issues in the regional and to powerful tribal formations in the Kingdom international arenas that will test his mettle, but that helped the Al Saud establish the modern he has to start by reestablishing Saudi Arabia’s state in the first half of the 20th century. It is an reputation as a stable country despite the auxiliary military force with social services, appearances of instability. weaponry, and training. Prince Miteb was appointed Minister of the National Guard by his Restoring the Reputation of Stability late father, King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, in The drastic measures King Salman instituted in 2013 and was retained in his post when King the security realm were first and foremost Salman ascended to the in January 2015. intended to ease his son’s ascension to the He probably represents a challenge to throne. The king’s decision to eviscerate the Mohammed bin Salman’s rise. Indeed, the Ministry of the Interior cannot be seen except possibility of stripping him of his power base at through the lens of stripping Mohammed bin the same time King Salman removed Nayef’s power base of effectual influence. Mohammed bin Nayef may have been too much Within the structure of power centers that at that time, although there is no telling what constitute the rule of the Al Saud, the ministry the future may hold. was MbN’s––and before him his father’s, the late ––bailiwick and As and an ambitious young became the central domestic security crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman will have organization. His ouster as Minister of the several issues to confront as soon as he assumes Interior, together with revoking his position as power as king. There is no indication as to crown prince, are bound to anger many in the whom he may choose for a crown prince, since ministry and its affiliates. Thus Mohammed bin his father did not appoint someone to his Salman’s very important mission now is to gain Deputy Crown Prince position. But there the loyalty of the security constituency in charge should be no doubt that he will choose one who of defending the realm from extremists and

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Imad K. Harb

terrorists, which bin Nayef had succeeded in with Qatar. First, Mohammed bin Salman must neutralizing. This is a top priority as the come clean regarding the United Arab kingdom’s stability faces renewed challenges Emirates’ hacking of Qatari sites and from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the so- dissemination of false information attributed to called Islamic State, and Yemen, to name only a the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al few. Thani. If MbS knew beforehand that this was planned, his credibility regarding the ongoing Most dangerous in this regard, however, are the Gulf crisis and other affairs will surely suffer. If widely-publicized stories about the pressure on he did not, he would do well for his country and Mohammed bin Nayef to abdicate his position future rule to admit to a serious mistake. as crown prince because of a supposed drug Developments since the end of May––when the addiction problem. Despite media reports about Kingdom, along with the , a smooth transition and public appearances of Bahrain, and began their anti-Qatar amity––with MbS and MbN exchanging campaign––have proven that the crisis was a pleasantries and the latter’s pledge of fiasco, at least in public relations terms. Qatar, allegiance—other reports from inside the on the other hand, has for all intents and Kingdom paint a picture of coercion and purposes succeeded in overcoming the effects intrigue. As for MbN’s alleged drug problem, of the Saudi-led blockade and has garnered the story was found to have been concocted by Arab and international sympathy and support an ally of bin Salman in the royal court, Saud al- for the way it has handled the crisis. In the Qahtani. What is even worse are reports that meantime, the four-state bloc continues to sink Mohammed bin Nayef has actually been placed deeper in the hole it dug by insisting on under house arrest and his guards replaced, unachievable demands from Qatar, in the eliciting outrage privately from American process making it harder and costlier to retreat. officials who have previously worked with him. Indeed, this report has prompted Human In addition to the public relations problem Rights Watch to petition Saudi Arabian Foreign precipitated by Saudi Arabia and its cohorts, the Minister Adel al-Jubeir for news of MbN’s current impasse threatens the security of the confinement. Such treatment of a Saudi royal is entire , as an alliance conducive neither to a stable political system and as a collective of individual states with nor to an ascending young crown prince. common interests. Indeed, the crisis arguably represents Saudi Arabia’s most urgent external The GCC Crisis challenge because of its leading role in the Another aspect of Mohammed bin Salman’s GCC’s institutions and endeavors. mission to restore Saudi Arabia’s reputation and position in the Gulf and the wider Middle In strategic terms, the situation in the Gulf is East is to work diligently to end the Gulf crisis pushing the GCC toward a colossal failure that

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Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward

its members may not be able to prevent or risk more damage to the kingdom’s reputation reverse. If the original crisis––now proven and national interests. concocted––was partly caused by worries about the dangers posed by the Islamic Republic of Unfortunately, since 2015 Prince Mohammed , how can its creators ensure GCC security has shown a dangerous degree of and unity without the council’s collective overconfidence in domestic and regional affairs efforts, including Qatar’s? How will GCC in a country steeped in tradition and reluctant defense be assured without assistance from to conduct an aggressive foreign policy. It could Qatar’s sophisticated missile systems, which be argued that he did not know about the UAE’s could help prevent feared Iranian ballistic hacking plan and believed the accusations missiles from reaching Saudi Arabian, Emirati, against Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad. But and Bahraini shores, economic installations, if this is true, it follows that he should end his and population centers? Equally important, association with the scheme, now that Abu how can Kuwait and Oman now trust that Dhabi’s involvement has been made public. and Abu Dhabi would not resort to However, he continues to sanction the ongoing pressuring them––to the point of imposing escalation, which paints him as guilty of blockades––to force them to adhere to their participating in a nefarious plan that, in the end, policies? Indeed, what is the future of the GCC will likely harm his country irreparably. The now that fear, intimidation, and outright threats latest revelations that UAE diplomats had have become tools in relations between actually lobbied the Obama Administration in supposedly sister states? 2011 and 2012 to host a Taliban Movement office in their country, instead of in Qatar, This is why Saudi Arabia has the responsibility– points to Abu Dhabi’s double-dealing on –as the most powerful among GCC states and accusing of supporting terrorism—an potentially the most harmed by the crisis––to essential contention in the current GCC crisis. In come clean. Statesmanship is the ability to find fact, given such uncertainty about their main compromise despite vastly divergent positions, ally, Saudi Arabia’s leaders should reevaluate especially when vital interests are affected. It is their position on the whole affair. also admitting to a mistake. As Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and thus the traditional Prince Mohammed can begin modestly by possessor of moral authority, King Salman cancelling the anti-Qatar advertisements in the would do well to arrest any further , for instance, or informing Foreign deterioration of the situation and to declare an Minister al-Jubeir to tame his rhetoric toward end to the crisis. If he becomes incapacitated, it Doha—a recent example of which is his behooves Crown Prince Mohammed bin announcement that Qatar’s call on the United Salman to do the same, lest the continuing crisis Nations to help in easing Qatari pilgrims’ visits to the Muslim holy places was a “declaration of

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Imad K. Harb

war.” More importantly, MbS could give more Yemen, is working to replace Yemeni President consideration to the Kuwaiti mediation effort, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who is in exile in assisted and encouraged as it is by , none other than Riyadh itself. The war effort Germany, France, the United States, and the costs Saudi Arabia $700 million a month at a , among others. The last iteration time of lower energy prices and needed of Kuwait’s effort was stalled by the Saudi-led economic restructuring, issues that are forcing entente’s rejection of Qatar’s insistence on its painful cutbacks in services and social support sovereignty. Even US Secretary of State Rex in the Kingdom. Attacks by Houthi and Saleh Tillerson’s intervention in mid-July was aborted forces have inflicted major damage on Saudi despite Qatar’s signing a Memorandum of Arabian villages close to the Yemeni border. Understanding with the United States about Even the holy city of has been attacked fighting the financing of terrorism. Prince by Houthi missiles. Mohammed could also simply lift the blockade that the bloc imposes on Qatar. But it is the human costs of the war in Yemen that are hurting Saudi Arabia’s reputation in the The War in Yemen region and prestige around the world. Riyadh is Another mission MbS could undertake is to being accused of war crimes, despite the help in ending the ongoing carnage in Yemen, purported efforts by Saudi military officials to where Saudi Arabia’s involvement has entered spare civilians. About 10,000 Yemenis have its third year. Some accomplishments have been been killed by military operations. Nearly 2,000 achieved since March 2015: southern Yemen have died from cholera and about 419,000 have appears to have been saved from the Houthi- been infected since April 27; the number is Saleh alliance; the Saudi-led Arab coalition has increasing by about 5,000 every day. Only 45 driven up the Yemeni coast toward al- percent of hospitals in the country are Hodeida seaport; and the city of Taiz has been operational. Other reports state that “nearly 19 saved from occupation by the insurgents. But million people require assistance and 6.8 the victories have been overshadowed by million are at risk of ,” and that a child serious problems that are likely to stretch the “dies every 10 minutes from the combined Yemeni war in a Sisyphean fashion that does effects of hunger and lack of medical facilities.” not advance anyone’s interests. A United Nations panel accused Saudi Arabia of responsibility for an attack on a boat off the Important examples of serious problems throw Yemen mainland in March in which 42 Somalis the Yemen war into relief. remains in the were killed and 34 others were wounded. hands of insurgents who have set up their own institutions that they consider to be more It is the combination of the stalemate in Yemen representative of their interests. Reports and the human cost of the war that should invite indicate that the UAE, the premier ally in needed introspection in Saudi Arabia, primarily

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Mohammed bin Salman’s Elevation and the Way Forward

among advocates of the intervention, and the GCC has triumphed over the preferences of especially by Crown Prince Mohammed bin the occupant of the Oval Office, and that the Salman. It may be justified to advocate action to American position is one of neutrality while it safeguard the kingdom’s security because of affirms GCC unity and reconciliation. neighboring Yemen’s instability; but if the costs of such a step are financially and morally high, As Qatar continues to defend its independent perspectives need reevaluation. And if Prince decision-making and the anti-Doha entente Mohammed pushed in early 2015 for a full-scale insists on the blockade, the Gulf crisis is in a Saudi Arabian intervention on the grounds that stalemate. In this context, it is necessary for it might be a walkover, it behooves him and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman to Saudi strategists to do a thorough reassessment reevaluate his relationship with the American and end the war as quickly as possible. The administration, with collective GCC interests in Kingdom and its allies could also throw their mind. Importantly, MbS would do well to pay weight behind the peace mission of UN Special attention to numerous investigations into the Envoy for Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmad. Trump Administration’s principals’ relations Needless to say, the Houthis and their allies in with during the 2016 presidential Yemen, for their part, must also be engaged in campaign. While the investigators’ work working diligently toward a political solution. remains mainly shielded from the public, daily press reports shed a very worrisome light on Relations with the United States what have become accusations of outright Much has been said about the flourishing collusion with Moscow to influence the relationship between Prince Mohammed and elections. There is no telling where these the Trump Administration. It is easy to accusations will lead, but there is enough speculate that this relationship may have evidence to prompt a necessary distancing by dovetailed with the early position taken by Saudi Arabia, its allies, and Qatar from President regarding the current Washington until the dust settles, at least partly. GCC crisis, when he agreed with the hardline anti-Qatar rhetoric from the Saudi-led coalition Conclusion and took credit for the its severance of The worrisome revelations about the details of diplomatic relations with Doha. But Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s elevation, the developments in the American position have public relations fiasco of the Gulf crisis, the shown a retreat by the and the uncanny hubris describing the UAE’s double- advancement of cooler and more experienced dealing, the tragic developments in Yemen, and policy-makers at the Departments of State and the uncertain future of the Trump Defense. Indeed, it has become quite clear that Administration give reason for a needed pause the political and military institutional by Saudi Arabia and its would-be king. As the relationship with Qatar and other members of Kingdom navigates very difficult economic,

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political, and social waters on its course to Third Saudi State’s (established in 1932) longest modernization and reform, it needs a steady reigning monarch. He is sure to be called upon hand unencumbered by false pride. The time is to play a pivotal role in the Gulf and the Arab now for leadership, statesmanship, and world at a time of unprecedented regional compromise. In his father’s absence and after instability. The bleeding ulcers of Palestinian the king’s return, Prince Mohammed would do dispossession and Syrian carnage, the well to change the course of his country in a uncertainty emanating from such places as reasoned direction, one that preserves its Yemen, , and Libya, and the dangers national interests and helps to safeguard those germane to sectarianism in the will of the Gulf Cooperation Council. require a stable Saudi Arabia that is capable of addressing and resolving the Arab world’s Slated to become king upon his father’s passing, multifarious problems. Mohammed bin Salman would likely be the

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