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CHDRAUI Inicio De Cobertura 28 De Septiembre De 2018

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CHDRAUI Inicio De Cobertura 28 De Septiembre De 2018 Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil México0 CHDRAUI Inicio de cobertura 28 de septiembre de 2018 www.banorte.com Inversión defensiva con una atractiva valuación @analisis_fundam . Iniciamos cobertura de CHDRAUI con recomendación de COMPRA y PO2019 de P$52.00, el cual implica un múltiplo FV/EBITDA 2019E Valentín Mendoza Subdirector de 7.1x, similar al promedio de 3 años Autopartes/Bienes Raíces/Comerciales / Consumo Discrecional . El sólido posicionamiento de la compañía en México, sumado a una [email protected] generación de ingresos dolarizados cercana al 41% de las VT (2019E) proveniente de El Super y Fiesta Mart, son cualidades defensivas COMPRA Precio Actual $41.33 . La valuación actual en 7.8x nos parece atractiva, al representar un PO 2019 $52.00 Dividendo 0.45 descuento de ~54% respecto de Walmex (16.9x) y de 15% frente a la Dividendo (%) 1.1% mediana de empresas comparables a nivel global (9.2x) Rendimiento Potencial 26.9% Máx – Mín 12m (P$) 50.00 – 35.05 Valor de Mercado (US$m) 2,118.7 En camino a recuperar la rentabilidad previa a la adquisición. La Acciones circulación (m) 963.9 adquisición de Fiesta Mart en Texas, impulsaría los crecimientos en 2018 Flotante 15.8% Operatividad Diaria (P$ m) 18.0 (+22.2%e Ventas; +14.9%e EBITDA y +10.4%e Utilidad Neta) y aumentará Múltiplos U12M la exposición a dólares de la compañía, pero también presionará la FV/EBITDA 7.8x P/U 18.5x rentabilidad consolidada (6.0%e vs 6.4% en 2017) e incrementará el apalancamiento (1.2x DN/EBITDA vs 0.7x en 2017). No obstante lo anterior, estimamos que el enfoque corporativo en el control de gastos en México y una eventual recuperación en los márgenes de EE.UU. por sinergias, encaminarían Rendimiento relativo al IPC 12 meses a Chedraui a recuperar los niveles de rentabilidad previos a la adquisición y a 40% disminuir el apalancamiento. Asimismo, creemos que la estrategia de 30% crecimiento hacia formatos de proximidad debería ser catalizador de un 20% aumento de 511pb en el ROIC hacia 2023. Mientras tanto, consideramos que 10% la valuación actual en 7.0x FV/EBITDA 2018E luce muy atractiva respecto de 0% la mediana del sector en México (13.5x), más aun al considerar el sólido -10% -20% posicionamiento que guarda la compañía en el sector detallista local y los sep-17 dic-17 mar-18 jun-18 sep-18 crecimientos que tenemos estimados para la misma. En consecuencia, fijamos MEXBOL CHDRAUIB nuestro PO2019 en P$52.00 con recomendación de COMPRA. Estados Financieros Múltiplos y razones financieras 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Ingresos 88,529 94,583 115,610 137,675 FV/EBITDA 7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 5.9x Utilidad Operativ a 4,254 4,418 5,085 6,212 P/U 20.6x 19.3x 17.5x 13.4x EBITDA 5,747 6,039 6,940 8,232 P/VL 1.5x 1.4x 1.2x 1.2x Margen EBITDA 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% Utilidad Neta 1,953 2,079 2,296 2,996 ROE 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 8.8% Margen Neto 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% ROA 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 4.4% EBITDA/ intereses 8.1x 6.9x 6.9x 7.9x Activ o Total 53,279 55,006 64,205 68,268 Deuda Neta/EBITDA 0.9x 0.7x 1.2x 0.9x Disponible 943 1,522 2,623 2,454 Deuda/Capital 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x Pasiv o Total 26,341 26,574 31,429 33,235 Deuda 5,855 5,775 10,610 10,219 Capital 26,938 28,432 32,777 35,033 Fuente: Banorte Documento destinado al público en general 1 CHDRAUI – Estados financieros proforma Ventas y Margen EBITDA cifras nominales en millones de pesos cifras en millones Estado de Resultados Año 2016 2017 2018E 2019E TCAC 160,000 6.5% 6.6% Ventas Netas 88,529 94,583 115,610 137,675 13.3% 140,000 6.4% 6.5% Costo de Ventas 70,313 74,916 90,963 108,230 13.0% 6.3% 6.4% Utilidad Bruta 18,216 19,666 24,646 29,445 14.4% 120,000 6.3% Gastos Generales 13,924 15,258 18,594 21,214 11.6% 100,000 6.2% Utilidad de Operación 4,254 4,418 5,085 6,212 12.0% 80,000 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% Margen Operativo 4.8% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% -1.2% 60,000 Depreciación Operativa 1,493 1,621 1,855 2,020 7.6% 6.0% 40,000 EBITDA 5,747 6,039 6,940 8,232 10.9% 5.9% 20,000 Margen EBITDA 6.5% 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% 5.8% Ingresos (Gastos) Financieros Neto (1,182) (1,181) (1,595) (1,721) 13.4% 0 5.7% Intereses Pagados 616 664 687 912 11.2% 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Intereses Ganados 19 42 62 38 -3.0% Ventas Netas Margen EBITDA Otros Productos (Gastos) Financieros (577) (595) (959) (835) Utilidad (Pérdida) en Cambios (9) 36 (10) (12) -169.0% Part. Subsidiarias no Consolidadas Utilidad antes de Impuestos 3,073 3,238 3,490 4,491 11.5% Provisión para Impuestos 1,063 1,120 1,150 1,437 8.7% Operaciones Discontinuadas Utilidad Neta y ROE Utilidad Neta Consolidada 2,010 2,117 2,340 3,054 13.0% cifras en millones Participación Minoritaria 57 38 44 58 Utilidad Neta Mayoritaria 1,953 2,079 2,296 2,996 13.0% Margen Neto 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 3,500 8.6% 10.0% UPA 2.026 2.157 2.382 3.109 13.0% 3,000 7.3% 7.4% 7.0% 7.1% 8.0% Estado de Posición Financiera 2,500 Activo Circulante 12,967 14,125 18,441 21,229 14.5% 2,000 6.0% Efectivo y Equivalentes de Efectivo 943 1,522 2,623 2,454 17.3% Activos No Circulantes 40,312 40,880 45,764 47,039 4.8% 1,500 4.0% Inmuebles, Plantas y Equipo (Neto) 29,898 30,829 31,760 33,017 2.3% 1,000 Activos Intangibles (Neto) 500 522 945 945 21.8% 2.0% 500 Activo Total 53,279 55,006 64,205 68,268 7.5% Pasivo Circulante 18,419 18,513 17,867 20,052 2.7% 0 0.0% Deuda de Corto Plazo 1,404 688 347 335 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Proveedores 14,018 14,597 16,470 17,351 5.9% Pasivo a Largo Plazo 7,922 8,061 13,562 13,182 17.8% Utilidad Neta Mayoritaria ROE Deuda de Largo Plazo 4,451 5,088 10,263 9,883 Pasivo Total 26,341 26,574 31,429 33,235 7.7% Capital Contable 26,938 28,432 32,777 35,033 7.2% Participación Minoritaria 38 44 58 Capital Contable Mayoritario 26,938 28,150 32,435 34,668 7.2% Deuda Neta / Deuda Neta a EBITDA Pasivo y Capital 53,279 55,006 64,205 68,268 7.5% cifras en millones Deuda Neta 4,881 4,156 7,987 7,765 23.2% Estado de Flujo de Efectivo 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 9,000 1.4x 1.2x Flujo del resultado antes de Impuestos 2,675 6,600 6,121 7,385 8,000 1.2x Flujo de la Operación 2,675 6,600 2,488 (1,900) 7,000 0.9x Flujo Neto de Inversión (1,760) (3,857) (8,065) (4,129) 0.8x 1.0x 6,000 Flujo Neto de Financiamiento (3,027) (1,120) 4,515 (1,524) 0.7x 0.7x 5,000 0.8x Incremento (disminución) efectivo 563 8,224 5,059 (169) 4,000 0.6x 3,000 0.4x 2,000 1,000 0.2x 0 0.0x 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Deuda Neta Deuda Neta/EBITDA Fuente: Banorte, BMV 2 Valuación y PO 2019E de P$52.00 Valuación por flujos descontados (DCF) Nuestro precio objetivo 2019, calculado a través del método de DCF, es de P$52.00 por acción. Éste representa un rendimiento potencial de 26.9%, muy atractivo desde nuestro punto de vista, más al considerar que implicaría un múltiplo objetivo FV/EBITDA 2019E de 7.1x, similar al promedio de tres años del múltiplo adelantado 12 meses (7.5x), y por debajo de la mediana del sector de tiendas de autoservicio a nivel global de 8.6x. En nuestro modelo de valuación utilizamos una tasa de Costo de Capital Promedio Ponderado (WACC) de 11.6%, la cual fue calculada con una Beta de 0.9, Tasa Libre de Riesgo Preliminar de 8.6% (bono de 10 años de México), premio de mercado de 5.5% y el valor residual se calculó utilizando un múltiplo de salida FV/EBITDA de 8.4x, en línea con la mediana de pares comparables. Valuación por flujos descontados (DCF) Millones de pesos 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e (+) EBITDA 8,232 8,872 9,660 10,500 11,450 11,730 (-)Capital de Trabajo (740) (760) (773) (840) (916) (938) (-) Inversión en Activo Fijo (4,258) (4,378) (4,392) (4,423) (4,449) (4,672) (-) Impuestos (2,469) (2,662) (2,898) (3,150) (3,435) (3,519) (=) Flujo Efectivo 764 1,073 1,598 2,087 2,650 2,601 (+) Perpetuidad 0 0 0 0 0 0 98,534 (=) Flujo Total 764 1,073 1,598 2,087 2,650 2,601 Tasa Libre de riesgo (RF) 8.6%* (+) Valor presente de los Flujos 6,963 Riesgo Mercado (RM) 5.5% (+) Valor presente Perpetuidad 51,100 Beta 0.9 = Valor empresa 58,062 CAPM 13.5% (-) Deuda Neta (7,765) (-) Interés minoritario (366) Costo de la Deuda 5.8% Tasa impuestos 30.0% (=) Valor del Capital 49,932 Costo Deuda Neto 4.0% Acciones en circulación 964 Deuda / Capitalización 20.8% Valor Teórico P$ 51.80 WACC 11.6% Múltiplo EBITDA 8.4x Fuente: Banorte *Preliminar A continuación realizamos un análisis de sensibilidad para reflejar las variaciones a nuestro PO asumiendo distintos niveles de múltiplo FV/EBITDA para el valor terminal, así como de Beta y WACC.
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