Modelling Slum Dynamics Using an Integrated Agent Based Simulation Framework
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MODELLING SLUM DYNAMICS USING AN INTEGRATED AGENT BASED SIMULATION FRAMEWORK DEBRAJ ROY School of Computer Science and Engineering A thesis submitted to the Nanyang Technological University in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2017 Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Asst Prof. Bo An for his incredible understanding, help and support in a very difficult situation. I would also like to thank my co-supervisor and mentor, Dr. Michael Lees for giving me the opportunity and the inspiration to pursue my dreams. He has always been a reliable and uncompromising critic who has been there to help, advise and discuss about everything ranging from my research to teaching to technology and life in general. The weekly team meetings over coffee and, more recently, over hangouts, and his emphasis on encouraging everyone in his team to discuss their projects with each other not only helped me develop a lot of my ideas but made PhD life a lot more interesting when things got boring; and bearable when the going got tough. I am grateful to Dr. Karin Pfeffer for her guidance and contributions in my research and helping me collect data from India. Prof. Peter Sloot has my sincerest gratitude for taking time out of his busy schedule to give me valuable feedback, advise and support for my research. I would also like to thank the members of my Thesis Advisory Committee - Prof. Cheong Siew Ann and Prof. Cai Wentong for their support and valuable feedbacks during the course of my doctorate studies. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to the School of Computer Science and Engineering, The Computational Intelligence Lab and the Parallel and Dis- tributed Computing Center for providing me with the opportunity, the funds and, above all, the excellent facilities to pursue my doctorate studies. A special thanks is also due to Irene (Ng-Goh Siew Lai) and Kesavan Asaithambi for their excellent support with the resources at the laboratory. Finally, I would like to thank my family for their unflinching support and belief in me; and my wife Ria Ghosh for listening to my constant complaints and rants, and always being there to cheer me up. i ii Contents List of Figures viii List of Tables xii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research Salience . .2 1.2 Research Framework . .3 1.3 Research Goals and Key Contributions . .5 1.4 Dissertation Structure . .6 1.5 Scope and Limitations . .8 2 Slums Definitions and Characteristics9 2.1 Definition of Slums . .9 2.1.1 Definition by The Cities Alliance . 10 2.1.2 Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India . 10 2.1.3 Definition by The Karnataka Slum Areas Act . 11 2.1.4 Definition by UN Habitat . 11 2.1.5 Impact of Multiple Definitions of Slum . 12 2.2 Characterization of Slums . 13 2.2.1 Entry-points of the poor . 13 2.2.2 Safety concerns of Women . 14 2.2.3 Health and Child Mortality . 14 2.2.4 Lack of Education . 14 2.2.5 Exclusion from formal financial system . 15 2.2.6 Political and Social Exclusion . 15 2.3 Identifying Growth factors of Slums . 15 2.3.1 Population Dynamics . 16 iii CONTENTS 2.3.2 Economic Growth . 16 2.3.3 Housing Market Dynamics . 17 2.3.4 Informal Economy . 17 2.3.5 Local Topography . 18 2.3.6 Street Pattern . 18 2.3.7 The politics of Slums . 19 2.4 Discussion . 19 3 Review of slum models 21 3.1 Developing a framework for evaluating slum models . 22 3.1.1 Spatial Resolution . 23 3.1.2 Temporal Resolution . 23 3.1.3 Level of Abstraction . 24 3.1.4 Growth Phenomenon . 24 3.1.5 Sensitivity Analysis . 24 3.1.6 Validation and Calibration . 24 3.2 Taxonomy of Slum Models . 25 3.3 Description of existing Slum Models . 26 3.3.1 Informal Settlement Growth Model (ISGM) . 26 3.3.2 The Peripherization Model . 29 3.3.3 Informal Settlement Growth Pattern Model . 31 3.3.4 Manzese Settlement Growth Model . 33 3.3.5 Economic Disparity Model . 34 3.3.6 Slumulation . 37 3.4 Discussion . 39 4 Slums in Bangalore 41 4.1 Local Governance and Distribution of Slums in Bangalore . 42 4.1.1 Local governance structure of Bangalore . 42 4.1.2 Spatial Distribution of Slums in Bangalore . 42 4.1.3 Spatial clustering of Slums in Bangalore . 45 4.1.4 Status of low-cost housing in Bangalore . 46 4.2 Status of Slums in Bangalore using the Survey Data . 46 4.2.1 Demographic Profile of Households . 50 iv CONTENTS 4.2.2 Age of Marriage . 51 4.2.3 Literacy and Occupation . 52 4.2.4 Income Distribution . 54 4.2.5 Expenditure distribution . 57 4.2.6 Status of Welfare Benefits . 58 4.2.7 Housing Status and Security of Tenure . 59 4.2.8 Rural-Urban Migration . 59 4.2.9 Physical Infrastructure in Slums . 59 4.2.10 Choice of Slums . 60 4.3 Discussion . 61 5 Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Segregation in the Slums of Bangalore. 63 5.1 Methodology . 65 5.1.1 Theoretical Framework . 65 5.1.2 Quantitative Methods . 66 5.1.2.1 Index of Dissimilarity . 66 5.1.2.2 Correspondence Analysis . 67 5.1.2.3 Stepwise Regression . 68 5.2 Results . 68 5.2.1 Degree of Segregation . 68 5.2.2 Spatial Segregation based on Religion . 69 5.2.3 Income Inequality and Poverty based on Religion . 70 5.2.4 Opportunity Bias based on Religion . 74 5.2.5 Satisfaction Based on Religion . 77 5.3 Discussion . 78 6 Population Dynamics Model 81 6.1 Related Work . 83 6.2 The Model . 85 6.2.1 Overview . 85 6.2.1.1 Purpose . 85 6.2.1.2 State Variables and Scales . 86 6.2.1.3 Process Overview and Scheduling . 86 6.2.2 Design Concepts . 89 v CONTENTS 6.2.2.1 Emergence . 89 6.2.2.2 Adaptation . 90 6.2.2.3 Fitness . 90 6.2.2.4 Prediction . 90 6.2.2.5 Interaction . 90 6.2.2.6 Sensing . 90 6.2.2.7 Stochasticity . 91 6.2.2.8 Collectives . 91 6.2.2.9 Observation . 91 6.2.3 Details . 92 6.2.3.1 Input . 92 6.2.3.2 Initialization . 93 6.2.3.3 Calibration of Dynaslum ...................... 93 6.3 Validation and Sensitivity Analysis . 94 6.3.1 Validation of Model Initialisation . 95 6.3.2 Validation of Model Steps . 96 6.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis . 96 6.3.3.1 Sobol' Indices . ..