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DARFUR – Dimensions and Dilemmas of a Complex Situation Johan Brosché

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DARFUR – Dimensions and Dilemmas of a Complex Situation Johan Brosché Department of Peace and Conflict Research Johan Brosché DARFUR – Dimensions and Dilemmas of a Complex Situation Johan Brosché DARFUR – Dimensions and Dilemmas of a Complex Situation Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Research UCDP Paper No. www.ucdp.uu.se Department of Peace and Conflict Research Uppsala University Box 51 S 751 0 Uppsala Sweden www.pcr.uu.se Darfur– Dimensions and Dilemmas of a Complex Situation Copyright © 2008 Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. All rights reserved. Cover photos: ©Johannes Saers, all rights reserved Cover design, layout and typesetting: Maria Wold-Troell Printed in Sweden by Universitetstryckeriet, Uppsala, 2008 ISBN 978-91-506-1991-1 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................ ......... i Executive Summary .....................................................................................................................ii Policy recommendations ...........................................................................................................v Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................viii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................1 . Backgound and Comprehensive View of Sudan .......................................... Background on Sudan ................................................................................... Background on Darfur ..................................................................................5 Comprehensive View of Sudan ............................................................... 1 Discussion About Background and Comprehensive View of Sudan 18 3. Some of the Major Actors ............................................................................. 1 The National Congress Party: Strengths and Weaknesses ................ 1 Abdul Wahid ................................................................................................. Minni Minawi ................................................................................................ 26 Rebel Unification / Juba Process .............................................................. 0 Arabs in Darfur; Janjaweed, Rebels or Neutral Onlookers? ............. 8 Dicsussion About Some of the Major Actors.... .................................. . Situation on the ground ................................................................................. 5 Humanitarian Situation, Camps and Human Rights ............................ 5 Fur-Zaghawa Relations .............................................................................. 9 Elections ....................................................................................................... 50 Chad and CAR ............................................................................................ 5 Discussion About the Situation on the Ground .................................. 56 5 5. UNAMID .......................................................................................................... 59 Background ................................................................................................... 59 Problems Concerning UNAMID ............................................................. 60 Attacks on AMIS and UNAMID ............................................................... 70 Discussions About UNAMID ................................................................... 7 6. Negotiations ..................................................................................................... 75 Venue ............................................................................................................. 75 Most Important Issues ............................................................................... 76 Views on Negotiation Team ...................................................................... 8 Signing, not Implementing.......................................................................... 85 Discussion About Negotiations ............................................................... 87 7. International Response .................................................................................. 91 United States ............................................................................................... 91 China .............................................................................................................. 96 EU ................................................................................................................... 98 Arab Countries ......................................................................................... 100 International Criminal Court - ICC......................................................101 ”Barking Without Biting”.........................................................................10 Discussion About International Response ..........................................106 8. Conclusions and Future Research ..................................................109 References ...............................................................................................11 UCDP Papers ..........................................................................................126 6 Acknowledgements First of all I would like to extend my gratitude to the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which financed this report. In addition, numerous people have enabled the writing of this report and this is an attempt to show my appreciation. First of all thanks to Ralph Sundberg, who spent much of his spare time discussing this report with me, something that has improved it greatly. I also wish to thank Professor Peter Wallensteen and my other colleagues at the UCDP and the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University for useful comments and valuable discussions. Thanks also to Maria, for help in designing the report’s cover. I am also grateful to Johannes and Linnéa for approaching me at the conference in Brussels and the many rewarding discussions we have had on our favourite subject of Darfur in Uppsala. In Sudan, a large number of people have been an indispensable help in writing this report. First of all I am grateful to all the people that took the time to let me discuss the situation in Darfur with them. Special thanks to Samia and Asma; your kindness symbolises the warmth that I received from people when I was in Sudan. Thanks also to Tarik for your good friendship and your help with some of the interviews; Elshafie for helping me get in contact with good people; Mohammed for great discussions and driving when in Khartoum and Joseph and Sam for the same (under much tougher conditions due to the state of the roads) in Juba. Finally, I want to express my gratitude to my family for being supportive and not letting their concerns stand in the way for a trip to a place that might not be the safest in the world. And of course I have not forgotten you, Ann-Sofie. Thank you for everything my beloved. I Executive Summary • The purpose of this report is to deepen knowledge about the current crises in Darfur through a broad approach. The point of departure is a field study conducted by the author in Sudan during November and December, 2007 divided into three weeks in the Sudanese capital Khartoum and one week in Juba, Southern Sudan. While in Sudan a sample of politicians, academics, traditional leaders, rebel leaders from varying factions, students, NGO representatives, people working for different UN-organs, human rights workers etc were interviewed. This sample deliberately includes both biased and unbiased sources to achieve as broad a view as possible. One intention with this report is to use this unique material as extensively as possible but it is also complemented with secondary sources. • Sudan is characterised by a persistent domination of the centre over the marginalised peripheral areas leading to extreme regional imbalances. This periphery-centre dimension has been stressed in the armed conflicts within Sudan. Various rebel groups have demanded increased share of resources and political influence for marginalised areas. • Since the conflicts in Sudan have this periphery-centre dimension, arguably, a solution to these conflicts requires change in the centre. The best chance for such a change is the CPA-stipulated elections in 2009. If these elections take place and if they are free and fair this might open up possibilities for the creation of a more peaceful Sudan. However, it is important to note the obstacles in the path of such elections. There are doubts both regarding if the elections will be held at all and also whether or not the elections will be free and fair. Both these aspects have been stressed by different experts. • It is important to take other areas of Sudan into account while dealing with Darfur since the situation there is highly affected by, and affects, other parts of Sudan. Of highest importance is to carefully observe the regions of Kordofan, the East and the far North since potentially large-scale fighting might erupt in these areas. These problems must be dealt with before these crises deepen further. • The current disaster in Darfur is a result of three parallel interlinked types of conflicts: communal conflicts, conflicts between different regional elites and periphery-centre conflicts. It is important to keep this in mind,
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