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Covid-19 on Public Health and the Economy of GTIPA Member Nations

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Covid-19 on Public Health and the Economy of GTIPA Member Nations GTIPA Perspectives: COVID-19 Impacts on Public Health and the Economy of GTIPA Member Nations October 2020 GTIPA Perspectives: COVID-19 Impacts on Public Health and the Economies of GTIPA Member Nations Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3 Argentina .......................................................................................................................... 8 Australia .......................................................................................................................... 13 Austria ............................................................................................................................ 15 Bangladesh...................................................................................................................... 21 California/Silicon Valley, United States ............................................................................... 27 Chile ............................................................................................................................... 36 Colombia ......................................................................................................................... 42 European Union ............................................................................................................... 51 Germany .......................................................................................................................... 65 Greece ............................................................................................................................ 71 Honduras ........................................................................................................................ 88 Indonesia ........................................................................................................................ 92 Italy .............................................................................................................................. 101 Jordan ........................................................................................................................... 116 Korea ............................................................................................................................ 126 Latin America ................................................................................................................ 132 Mexico .......................................................................................................................... 148 Poland .......................................................................................................................... 159 South Africa .................................................................................................................. 166 United Kingdom ............................................................................................................. 175 United States ................................................................................................................. 186 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 196 Endnotes ....................................................................................................................... 198 1 About the Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance/Introduction The Global Trade and Innovation Policy Alliance (GTIPA) is a global network comprising over 40 like-minded, independent think tanks that support greater global trade liberalization and integration and deplore trade-distorting “innovation mercantilist” practices, but yet believe that governments can and should play important and proactive roles in spurring greater innovation and productivity in their enterprises and economies. Member organizations advocate and adhere to research and policy consistent with a core Shared Statement of Principles. The Alliance gives world-class think tanks a space to collaborate on events, research, and reports while enjoying a platform that highlights and cross-pollinates member organizations’ work on trade, globalization, and innovation policy. Think tanks interested in joining the Alliance should contact Stephen Ezell, vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), at [email protected]. 2 Introduction By: Stephen Ezell and Kevin Gawora, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, October 22, 2020 The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic that emerged at the start of 2020 has impacted the global economy and public health to an unprecedented extent. This anthology analyzes the economic and public health impact and policy responses of 20 nations and regions—Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, the California Bay Area, Chile, Colombia, the European Union (EU), Germany, Greece, Honduras, Indonesia, Italy, Jordan, Korea, Latin America, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States—to the coronavirus pandemic. The Latin America section delves deeper into the coronavirus responses of seven additional nations: Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. (These monographs were written over the late summer and early fall of 2020, and reflect the most-currently available data as of their time of authorship.) Before moving into the individual country case studies, however, the report starts with a brief overview of the pandemic’s broad global health and economic impacts. Global Public Health Impact Even approaching almost one year into the crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the globe, with cases and deaths rising worldwide, with more than 5 million new cases in the past 14 days alone.1 As of October 21, 2020, there were over 41 million cases and deaths exceeded 1.1 million, according to the latest estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO). (See Figure 1). Figure 1: Global COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities (millions, as of October 21, 2020)2 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Cumulative Cases Cumulative Fatalities There is substantial variation by region, however, as the Asia-Pacific region continues to see relatively minimal COVID-19 impacts, at least compared with the much-higher case and death rates being experienced in the Americas, Europe, and Central Asia. (See Figure 2 and Figure 3). The Asia-Pacific represents the lowest region with regard to all four categories of new cases, cumulative cases, new deaths, and cumulative deaths. As of October 21, the entire Asia-Pacific 3 region experienced 3,225 new cases for a total of over 691,000 cumulative cases, and 25 new deaths for a total of almost 150,000 deaths. This compares with the Americas, which had almost 111,000 new cases for a total of 18.9 million, and 1,737 new deaths for a total of over 610,000 deaths.3 Figure 2: New Coronavirus Cases by Region (as of October 21, 2020)4 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Cases (Hundreds of of Thousands) (Hundreds Cases 0.2 0 Europe and Americas South and Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific Central Asia Southeast Asia Figure 3: New Coronavirus Deaths by Region (as of October 21, 2020)5 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Europe and Americas South and Middle East Africa Asia-Pacific Central Asia Southeast Asia 4 Europe and Central Asia are struggling as well, with a spike in recent cases and deaths surpassing even the Americas. Europe in particular now seems to be in the midst of the dreaded “second wave,” with movement restrictions and travel lockdowns beginning to reappear across the continent. In Europe and Central Asia, there were almost 146,000 new cases and 1,771 new deaths from COVID-19 on October 21, 2020.6 However, cumulative cases and deaths by region are much lower than in the Americas, with almost 8.4 million cases and just over 260,000 deaths. The Middle East and Africa represent two regions that are handling the COVID-19 pandemic surprisingly well, given their relatively low levels of development and medical care compared to the industrialized world. Like the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa have also seen relatively low levels of new cases and deaths. As of October 21, 2020, the Middle East experienced 23,000 new daily cases and Africa 4,000, while deaths were just 575 and 193, respectively. Cumulative deaths are low as well, with the Middle East having lost almost 72,000 people and Africa less than 29,000 since the pandemic started. South and Southeast Asia appear to be in the middle of the pack regarding their COVID-19 cases and deaths. On October 21, 2020, the region saw almost 64,000 new cases for a total of 8.6 million, and 891 new deaths for a total of more than 136,000. Regardless, the loss of over 1.1 million global citizens from this disease has been staggering. Global Economic Impact The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted the largest shock on the global economy since the Second World War, resulting in job losses for over 500 million individuals worldwide, reduced global trade flows, and a sharp decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth.7 The effects have been severe, with the global economy at the end of 2020 projected to be 8 percent smaller than it would have been in the absence of the pandemic.8 According to the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this month, the global economy is expected to shrink in aggregate by 4 percent in 2020, rebounding to 5 percent growth in 2021.9
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