European Union, 2020
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A New Political Economy for Europe Post-COVID-19
EUV0010.1177/1781685820968301European ViewBergsen 968301research-article2020 Article European View 2020, Vol. 19(2) 131 –137 A new political economy for © The Author(s) 2020 https://doi.org/10.1177/1781685820968301DOI: 10.1177/1781685820968301 Europe post-COVID-19 journals.sagepub.com/home/euv Pepijn Bergsen Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented economic support measures from governments across Europe. With this, the crisis has provided an occasion for a significant demonstration of the ability of states to implement policies and deliver services. This could create expectations among electorates of permanent changes to the macroeconomic regime, towards one characterised by a more protective state and a rebalancing between the state and the market. Significant political barriers to such a shift remain. The article argues that, in contrast to the aftermath of the two previous economic crises in Europe, many new ideas are floating around and support for a more protective state is emerging across the political spectrum. The current crisis might thus represent a turning point. Keywords COVID-19, Europe, Political economy, Industrial policy, Fiscal policy Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has shocked European health systems and economies. So far it has not led to any political shocks. A crisis of this magnitude is unlikely to pass by without significant political consequences, though, particularly as it comes at the tail end of a decade of economic crisis in Europe that has not led to a fundamental shift in either the political or the economic regime. The global financial crisis of 2008–9 and the subsequent crisis in the eurozone had already led to demands for changes to the economic settlement. -
Euro Aggregate
Investment Highlights 2Q 2021 Euro Aggregate Performance Review Global Bond and Currency Returns Euro Aggregate portfolios outperformed their benchmarks Country 9 7.1 in 2Q21: 6 3.1 Overweight exposures to corporate bonds and hard 3 2.2 2.5 0.4 1.1 1.3 currency EM bonds were positive. 0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 Total Returns (%) Total -3 An opportunistic allocation to US and Australian Govt Year Bond 7–10 France Italy Germany Spain Mexico Poland Japan UK China* Australia US Indonesia*S. Africa* duration added to returns. Sector A flattening of global yield curves was beneficial. 3.0 EU UK US EM Tactical positioning in inflation-linked bonds added 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.0 to returns. 1.0 0.6 Currency positioning was a positive, driven by an 0.0 overweight position in the Hungarian forint. Excess Returns (%) -0.3 -1.0 Euro Euro UK UK US US US US USD EM EM Corp HY Corp HY Corp MBS HY TIPS Sovereign Corp Portfolio Activity Currency 6 Reduced eurozone duration by cutting exposure 3.4 4.1 4 2.5 2.6 to longer-dated French government bonds early 2 0.5 0.9 1.4 in the quarter. 0 -2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 Reduced US and UK duration during the quarter -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 -4 -2.4 NOKAUD JPY INR GBP USD KRW CAD SEK CNY PLN MXN ZAR RUB as yields declined. -
EU Proposes COVID-19 Recovery Plan and [Further] Adjusted Work Programme
Tax Policy Bulletin from Global Tax Policy EU proposes COVID-19 Recovery Plan and [further] adjusted Work Programme June 29, 2020 In brief The European Commission has proposed a detailed COVID-19 Recovery Plan which includes more taxes going directly to the European Union. In the short term, the European Union will borrow to finance Member State investment in what is effectively the multi-annual financial framework (MFF) for 2021- 2027. The framework will be discussed in the coming months and, if approved, put in place this year. There would be some knock-on effects on work previously planned for 2020 (as discussed in our earlier Bulletin of 7 May 2020), including a number of tax proposals. This Bulletin focuses on • the fairly immediate introduction of ‘green’ levies: an EU-wide emissions trading levy, non-recycled plastic packaging waste charge and a carbon border adjustment mechanism; • a EU single market tax on the 70,000 large companies with revenues over EUR 750m; • a digital tax in the event of the OECD-led digitalisation/ globalisation project not producing a suitable consensus among the near 140 members of the Inclusive Framework; • the delivery of planned 2020 projects, including an “Action Plan to fight tax evasion and to make taxation simple and easy” and a plan on “Business Taxation for the 21st century.“ In detail COVID-19 recovery fund and structuring repayments The European Council endorsed crisis funding to provide a safety net for workers, businesses and Member State governments of EUR 540bn on April 23, 2020. The European Commission has now proposed an emergency European recovery instrument, ‘Next Generation EU,’ amounting to a further EUR 750bn. -
OPEN LETTER to EU Heads of State on Funding the Fight to End Violence Against Women and Girls
OPEN LETTER To EU Heads of State on funding the fight to end violence against women and girls Brussels, 23 September 2020 Dear President of the European Council, Charles Michel Dear Head of Presidency of the Council, Chancellor Angela Merkel Dear EU Heads of State Dear Members of the European Parliament We, the undersigned, members of the European Coalition to end violence against women and girls consisting of civil society organisations, networks and trade unions fighting for gender equality and the rights of women and girls to live free from violence, are writing to you regarding the MFF 2021-2027 and Next Generation EU (NGEU). We urge all EU decision-makers to demonstrate their political leadership and commitment to protecting gender equality, women’s and girls’ rights, and eliminating violence against women and girls in all of its activities through increased funds to the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values programme. We are pleased about the recent decision by the European Commission to reverse the 20% cuts of the budget to the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values Programme, which is now proposed at €638 million (current prices). These commitments were further welcomed by the European Council following the July 2020 Special Meeting, who supported the Commission’s 2018 proposed amount of €841 million (2018 prices) to the Justice, Rights and Values Fund. In light of the European Parliament’s vote to withhold its consent for the MFF on 23 July 2020, we urge EU decision-makers to swiftly come to an ambitious agreement and meet the Parliament’s demands for targeted increases to flagship programmes, including tripling the amount allocated to the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values programme to €1.83 billion (current prices). -
Ten Issues to Watch in 2021
ISSN 2600-268X Ten issues to watch in 2021 IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service Author: Étienne Bassot Members' Research Service PE 659.436 – January 2021 EN This EPRS publication seeks to offer insights and put into context ten key issues and policy areas that are likely to feature prominently on the political agenda of the European Union in 2021. It has been compiled and edited by Isabelle Gaudeul-Ehrhart of the Members' Research Service, based on contributions from the following policy analysts: Marie-Laure Augère and Anna Caprile (Food for all? Food for thought), Denise Chircop and Magdalena Pasikowska-Schnass (Culture in crisis?), Costica Dumbrava (A new procedure to manage Europe's borders), Gregor Erbach (A digital boost for the circular economy), Silvia Kotanidis (Conference on the Future of Europe, in the introduction), Elena Lazarou (A new US President in the White House), Marianna Pari (The EU recovery plan: Turning crisis into opportunity?), Jakub Przetacznik and Nicole Scholz (The vaccine race for health safety), Ros Shreeves and Martina Prpic (Re-invigorating the fight against inequality?), Branislav Staniček (Turkey and stormy waters in the eastern Mediterranean) and Marcin Szczepanski (Critical raw materials for Europe). The cover image was produced by Samy Chahri. Further details of the progress of on-going EU legislative proposals, including all those mentioned in this document, are available in the European Parliament's Legislative Train Schedule, at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/ LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN Translations: DE, FR Manuscript completed in January 2021. DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT This document is prepared for, and addressed to, the Members and staff of the European Parliament as background material to assist them in their parliamentary work. -
European Debt Mutualisation
EU BUDGET POLICY PAPER NO.255 JULY 2020 EUROPEAN DEBT #EUBUDGET #RECOVERY #DEBT MUTUALISATION MUTUALISATION FINDING A LEGITIMATE BALANCE BETWEEN SOLIDARITY AND RESPONSIBILITY MECHANISMS Photo by CafeCredit under CC 2.0 ▪ ANDREAS EISL Executive Summary ▪ Research fellow, Jacques Delors Institute In the upcoming European Council on July 17 and 18, EU member states will fight for a compromise on the European Commission’s main project to tackle the economic fallout ▪ MATTIA TOMAY of the Covid-19 crisis across Europe: a new 7-year EU budget propped up with a temporary Political scientist, Recovery Instrument (Next Generation EU) amounting to EUR 750 bn of jointly issued debt Member of the Académie and to be passed on to EU countries as grants and loans. It is one of the most ambitious in Notre Europe 2019-2020 a long line of proposals for European debt mutualisation. While joint borrowing can carry a lot of advantages, debt mutualisation has always been very controversial. Confrontations between those countries supposedly benefiting and losing from mutualising debt have repeatedly centered on the legitimate balance of solidarity and responsibility that such debt implies. Democratic legitimacy in solidarity-responsibility arrangements can be achieved when they can deliver in terms of output legitimacy (being effective in economic terms), input legitimacy (ensuring sufficient room for domestic politics in deciding national policy trajectories) and throughput legitimacy (being run in a transparent and accountable manner). THINKING EUROPE • PENSER L’EUROPE• EUROPA DENKEN 1 ▪ 20 This paper analyses the solidarity-responsibility arrangements of various proposals and rea- lized forms of European debt mutualisation made over the last decades to evaluate their shortcomings and potential in finding a legitimate balance of solidarity and responsibility mechanisms for all EU member states. -
Frugal Member States Vs. the Eu : Not Too Much Please
PENSER L’EUROPE • THINKING EUROPE • EUROPA DENKEN BLOG POST BLOG POST FRUGAL MEMBER STATES VS. THE EU : NOT TOO MUCH PLEASE 27/10/2020 | DANIEL DEBOMY | DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP Daniel Debomy, Associate Research Fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute, Director of OPTEM 2020 has been a year marked by arduous negotiations which resulted in the adoption of the recovery plan for the European economy, hit hard by the consequences of the COVID 19 pandemic. During these negotiations, the leaders of so-called “Frugal Four” Member States expressed their major disinclination towards a solidarity-based commit- ment to recovery (and ultimately only came around when granted substantial financial concessions): the Netherlands – although a founding Member State of the European Community –, Denmark, Sweden and Austria. As the negotiations between European institutions continue, in particular with a view to finalising the European Mul- tiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027, this paper analyses the state of public opinion towards the EU in these four countries, as expressed prior to these events. This paper is based on data from the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey conducted in the autumn of 2019 and from the 2019 surveys of the European Parliament, the most recent comparable data available on the state of public opinion. Positive opinions regarding the economic situation Citizens of the “Frugal Four” Member States stand out for their highly positive opinions with regard to the economic situation in their country: 90% deem the situation positive in the Netherlands as in Denmark and 76% in Sweden and Austria - all scores which are much greater than the European average (47%). -
What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on Worldwide Effects of the Pandemic
26 EconPol 2020 October POLICY REPORT Vol. 4 World Economy: What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on Worldwide Effects of the Pandemic Dorine Boumans, Pauliina Sandqvist and Stefan Sauer (EconPol Europe, ifo Institute) headed by KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle KOF Swiss Economic Institute EconPol POLICY REPORT A publication of EconPol Europe European Network of Economic and Fiscal Policy Research Publisher and distributor: ifo Institute Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 Munich, Germany Telephone +49 89 9224-0, Telefax +49 89 9224-1462, email [email protected] Editors: Mathias Dolls, Clemens Fuest Reproduction permitted only if source is stated and copy is sent to the ifo Institute. EconPol Europe: www.econpol.eu World Economy: What Does the Road to Recovery from COVID-19 Look Like? Expert Survey on World-Wide Effects of the Pandemic Dorine Boumans, Pauliina Sandqvist and Stefan Sauer1 The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a detrimental effect on global health care systems, with a ripple effect on every aspect of human life as we know it. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 as a global emergency (WHO, 2020). In response, to “flatten the curve”, governments have enforced border shutdowns, travel restrictions, and general lockdowns with numerous social distancing measures such as closed schools, shops, services and, to a lesser extent, the manufacturing industry. This in turn led to an impending economic crisis and recession all around the globe. The IMF World Economic Outlook of June 2020 projects global growth at -4.9 percent in 2020 (IMF, 2020a). After more than six months of coronavirus being part of our life, most economies have opened up again, although with certain restrictions against the spread of the virus. -
Reading Between the Lines of Council Agreement on the MFF and Next Generation EU Jorge Núñez Ferrer
No 2020-18 / July 2020 Reading between the lines of Council agreement on the MFF and Next Generation EU Jorge Núñez Ferrer Abstract The recent agreement on the EU budget is an unprecedented and historic achievement for the European Union. It has broken a taboo and advanced the integration process. We all saw that the negotiations were arduous, but given the magnitude of the challenge facing the heads of state and government, it would have been naïve to expect otherwise. It is virtually impossible to find a comparable agreement between numerous countries in any other part of the world; by this measure alone it is impressive. Having said that, what has been agreed is complex and bewildering to many. While attention has focused on the Next Generation EU, the agreement also includes the ‘normal’ multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-27. Comments to the effect that the EU has deleted all funding for health, or much of the research budget, are based on the Next Generation EU ‘temporary’ measure and not on the underlying MFF. This paper aims to present a brief rundown of the actual changes in numbers and reflect on the meaning of the agreement. Jorge Núñez Ferrer is a Senior Research Fellow at CEPS. CEPS Policy Insights offer analyses of a wide range of key policy questions facing Europe. As an institution, CEPS takes no position on questions of European policy. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed are attributable only to the author in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which he is associated. Available for free downloading from the CEPS website (www.ceps.eu) © CEPS 2020 CEPS ▪ Place du Congrès 1 ▪ B-1000 Brussels ▪ Tel: (32.2) 229.39.11 ▪ www.ceps.eu 2 | JORGE NÚÑEZ FERRER In a nutshell, the major decisions taken are the following: a) The level of grants in Next Generation EU was cut from €500 billion to €390 billion. -
Evermore Global Value Fund Portfolio Commentary: 2Nd Quarter 2021
Evermore Global Value Fund Portfolio Commentary: 2nd Quarter 2021 1 | P a g e Dear Shareholder, Global markets continued their positive gains in the second quarter. In the U.S., despite continued investor concerns about rising inflation rates and after impressive first quarter GDP growth of 6.4%, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high in June. And, with the support of strong corporate earnings reports and a decline in COVID- 19 cases, European markets also had a solid quarter. The Delta variant has renewed concerns about the prolonged impact the pandemic may continue to have in coming quarters. The good news for individuals who have been vaccinated is that the data shows that an overwhelming percentage of Delta variant cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been associated with unvaccinated individuals. Thus, the push to ramp up vaccinations in the U.S. and abroad continues. From our perspective, the news flow from around the world has been more positive than anytime over the last few years. Growth is picking up in Asia, in Europe and here in the U.S. It turns out there really is pent up demand across many sectors and industries. The confluence of additional stimulus checks for individuals, massive economic stimulus, and extremely low interest rates has created an environment for explosive growth around the globe. As we speak with corporate leaders, key regional investment banking firms as well as families and individuals that control companies, we have seen a resurgence of optimism about the future despite concerns about a new wave of COVID infections from the Delta variant. -
Assessing Next Generation EU
LSE ‘Europe in Question’ Discussion Paper Series Assessing Next Generation EU Lorenzo Codogno & Paul van den Noord LEQS Paper No. 166/2020 February 2021 Editorial Board Dr Vassilis Monastiriotis Dr Cristóbal Garibay-Petersen Dr Spyros Economides Dr Bernardo Rangoni Mr Toon Van Overbeke All views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the editors or the LSE. © Lorenzo Codogno & Paul van den Noord Assessing Next Generation EU Lorenzo Codogno* & Paul van den Noord** Abstract The unprecedented fiscal package adopted by the European Council in the summer of 2020 ―dubbed Next Generation EU―is vital for the recovery of the euro area from the pandemic shock. However, there are risks that targets will not be met and that it may prove difficult to muster the same degree of European ‘solidarity’ in the future. Computations with a stylised macroeconomic model indicate that an alternative approach, with ex ante risk sharing through the creation of a Eurobond and permanent fiscal capacity at the centre, would be at least as powerful, yet it would be more sustainable, automatic and timely. Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Business fluctuations, Safe sovereign assests, Fiscal capacity JEL Classification: E32, E63, F33 * London School of Economics and Political Science Email: [email protected] ** Amstedam School of Economics Email: [email protected] Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... -
Coronavirus Politics
Coronavirus The Comparative Politics Politics and Policy of COVID-19 EDITED BY Scott L. Greer, Elizabeth J. King, Elize Massard da Fonseca, and André Peralta-Santos Coronavirus PolitiCs Coronavirus PolitiCs The Comparative Politics and Policy of COVID-19 Scott L. Greer, Elizabeth J. King, Elize Massard da Fonseca, and André Peralta-Santos, Editors University of Michigan Press ann arbor Copyright © 2021 by Scott L. Greer, Elizabeth J. King, Elize Massard da Fonseca, and André Peralta- Santos Some rights reserved This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Interna- tional License. Note to users: A Creative Commons license is only valid when it is applied by the person or entity that holds rights to the licensed work. Works may contain components (e.g., photo graphs, illustrations, or quotations) to which the rightsholder in the work cannot apply the license. It is ultimately your responsibility to inde penden tly evaluate the copyright status of any work or component part of a work you use, in light of your intended use. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ For questions or permissions, please contact um . press . perms@umich . edu Published in the United States of Amer i ca by the University of Michigan Press Manufactured in the United States of Amer i ca Printed on acid-f ree paper First published April 2021 A CIP cata log rec ord for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-i n-P ublication data has been applied for.