WMG (Warwick Manufacturing Group), University of Warwick – Written Evidence (BAT0014)
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WMG (Warwick Manufacturing Group), University of Warwick – Written evidence (BAT0014) About WMG WMG is an academic department at the University of Warwick and an international role model for successful collaboration between academia and the public and private sectors, driving innovation in applied science, technology and engineering. As one of the largest academic departments at the University of Warwick and the lead centre for the High Value Manufacturing Catapult strategic objectives of Vehicle Electrification and Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV); WMG is a leading multidisciplinary group, making a real impact through both collaborative R&D and world-class education. 1. To what extent are battery and fuel cell technologies currently contributing to decarbonisation efforts in the UK? • What are the primary applications of battery and fuel cell technologies for decarbonisation, and at what scale have they been deployed? There are several primary uses for battery technologies for decarbonisation. The first is the electrification of vehicles, ranging from personal vehicles to public transport and commercial transport. In personal vehicles, battery technology has already reached mass adoption, with 13.4% of new vehicles registered so far in 2021 being either Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV) or fully Electric vehicles. This increases to 37% of New Vehicles having some form of battery power, when Hybrid (HEV and Mild-Hybrid Vehicles (MHEV) are included1. As you extend from personal to commercial, niche and specialist vehicles, we are seeing the development of EVs in the Construction, Freight, delivery and public transport systems, with product ranging from mini-diggers2, to vans, trucks, busses, and very light rail3. As vehicle energy needs grow larger, the challenge of managing battery-weight, charge time, and vehicle configuration becomes greater, so to date, there has been very limited uptake of lithium-ion battery technology in the truck sector, with adoption limited to the van, delivery and smaller bus segments, while technologies such as Lithium-Titanate (which permits faster charging but lower density) have a niche in scenarios where battery size is less of an issue, such as Trains4 and Trucks5. 1 https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/evs-and-afvs-registrations/ 2 https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/news/2018/03/zero-emissions-mini-so-quiet-it-gives-jcb-something-to-shout- about 3 https://revolutionvlr.com/vehicle/ 4 https://www.railjournal.com/fleet/obb-battery-electric-train-to-carry-passengers-next-month/ The second key area for battery application is in supporting energy storage on distribution networks. Here, batteries can offer storage to balance supply and demand from intermittent renewable supplies. They can sit either at industrial premises (downstream of the meter) or on the network itself (upstream of the meter) offering network storage capability to balance overall demand. There is also an emerging market in home battery storage. Here, similar to the industrial level, batteries are able to store energy from domestic renewable supplies (typically photo-voltaics), reducing the overall stress on the network. Looking at Fuel Cells, there is very little current adoption of Fuel Cell technology in the UK Transport market. In the personal vehicle space there are only three models of Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicle available for sale, and these in very limited numbers. (for example, the UK is planned to receive just 15 of the Toyota Mirai vehicle next year6). As battery technology has reduced in price by a factor of ten, and doubled in energy storage capacity over the last decade, most passenger car companies, including early pioneers like Honda, have now abandoned fuel cell research and development in favour of battery electrification due to concerns over future technology cost and lack of infrastructure. Notable exceptions are Toyota and BMW (who have a joint programme). In commercial vehicles and public transport, there remains significant fuel cell technical development, but little commercial deployment. Examples of developments include Hydrogen Fuel Cell Range extenders in ambulances7, trains8 and busses9. It’s important to note that in the case of Hydrogen fuel cells trains, batteries are also a key component. As Alicia Gillman of VivaRail says “All our technology revolves around batteries – a hydrogen train is simply a battery train with the fuel cell used to charge the batteries, not for traction. Fuel cells are not responsive enough to cope with the demands of a train whereas batteries are much more flexible”.10 2. What advances have been made in battery and fuel cell technologies in recent years and what changes can we expect in the next ten years (for example, in terms of energy density, capacity, charging times, lifetimes and cost reduction)? 5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/hyliion-doesnt-fear-disruption-it-has-plans-of-its-own-51613171398 6 https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/toyota/mirai 7 https://www.theengineer.co.uk/hydrogen-ambulance-set-for-london/ 8 https://www.theengineer.co.uk/on-track-advances-uk-hydrogen-rail/ 9 https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/429071-the-wheels-on-the-hydrogen-bus-go-round-and-round-in- aberdeen 10 ibid There have been significant improvements in both cost and energy density for Li-Ion batteries. For an auto battery pack, costs in 2010 were c$1000/kwh, which has fallen to $137/kwh today, with predictions of future cost to fall below $100/kwh by 202311 for high volume purchases. In energy density, we have seen a doubling of battery density since 2010, with top performance now sitting at around 300wh/kg compared to 150wh/kg a decade ago12. As the Faraday Institution notes “the highest specific energy reported for a near-commercial lithium-ion cell is 304 Wh/kg, claimed by Chinese company Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL).”13 This has largely been achieved by improved materials, optimisation of battery performance, significant advances in manufacturing technology, and higher volumes of battery production providing economy of scale. This has meant that the Automotive Council targets of 2017 are being achieved ahead of expected timeline. Looking to the future, it seems likely that there will be a continued focus on lowering costs and improving energy density of batteries for use in automotive applications in the near term. In the medium term, we can expect to see a divergence of battery products – with low cost chemistries (such as Lithium Iron Phosphate and Sodium Ion) being deployed in mass-market vehicles, high energy density chemistries (such as high nickel cathodes and silicon anodes) being developed for premium and long-range vehicles, and very low-cost chemistries (such as lithium sulfur) being particularly suited for domestic and grid storage applications. We will also see efforts to reduce the reliance of battery production on cobalt and copper such as moving to Lithium Iron Phosphate cathodes, to improve cost, security of supply and sustainability of raw materials. The rapid pace of battery development has not been matched by fuel cells, and recent advances in battery electric vehicles have significantly eaten into the potential market opportunity originally envisaged for fuel cells – that of the long range, fast-to-refuel passenger vehicle. With passenger cars now commercially available with 300+ mile range, and recharging times of as little as 30 minutes, the remaining market opportunity for fuel cells in passenger cars is vanishingly low. There has been a significant fall in hydrogen costs over the last decade, but much of this relies on processing of fossil fuels, and is therefore not sustainable 11 https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while- market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/ 12 https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/19/bloombergnef-lithium-ion-battery-cell-densities-have-almost- tripled-since-2010/ 13 https://faraday.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/High-Energy-battery-technologies-FINAL.pdf p12 in a zero-carbon future. As the production of fuel cells is limited, and relies on precious metals such as platinum, we’ve also not seen similar economies of scale to those seen in Battery production. These factors, plus the lack of public hydrogen fuelling infrastructure (or any visible or viable plans for one) has made fuel cells a difficult investment case for car manufacturers. The biggest fuel cell car manufacturer in the world (Toyota) plans to ship just 15 vehicles to the UK in 202114. A further disadvantage of hydrogen fuel cells in passenger car applications is their very low well-to wheels energy efficiency – with typically 80% of the renewable source energy being wasted before it gets to the wheels of the car (the equivalent figure for a battery electric vehicle being just 20%)15 For heavy duty vehicles, such as 40T trucks, however, there is no clear and easy zero carbon solution yet. Battery electric is not a straightforward option as the battery size would need to be up to 9T, and chargers would have to be several MW per vehicle. For these vehicles, fuel cells would be relatively cheaper and lighter, but with the attendant problem of very low energy efficiency. The technically optimal solution would be for an electric truck with a small battery to allow travel between depot and trunk route, and catenary electrification of trunk routes. This would be far more energy efficient, but would require technical agreement and simultaneous deployment between vehicle manufacturers and infrastructure providers. The infrastructure cost for this would be moderately higher than for fuel cells (around £3-5bn) but the energy requirements would be around three times smaller. Further research and trials are needed to set a technical direction which the market can follow. • What advances are expected beyond this timeframe, but in time to have an impact upon the 2050 net-zero target? Are there any fundamental limits to these technologies that would affect their contribution to the target? There are several new routes for battery technology and chemistry on the horizon.