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GM Vs. Tesla Before in August of 2020 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 1 von 30 Editors' Pick Long Ideas Consumer The GM-Tesla Market Value Gap Will Shrink Significantly By 2025 Jul. 05, 2021 11:50 AM ET | General Motors Company (GM) | TSLA | 82 Comments | 12 Likes Summary GM versus Tesla by the numbers shows GM's 2025 potential. GM's 1 million+ EV sales by 2025 goal will be a challenge for Tesla to match. The Ultium battery modular design could be another long-term advantage. The Cruise AV (Autonomous Vehicle) adds to GM's value. BrightDrop is a GM product that already has FedEx as a customer. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 2 von 30 them exclusively at Turnaround Stock Advisory. Learn More » Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images As General Motors (GM) continues its very aggressive EV push, the disparity between GM and Tesla's (TSLA) MV (Market Value) becomes more apparent. While Tesla's current EV market leadership is undeniable, GM's $35 billion spending commitment to transition to EVs by 2025 indicates the battle is on for EV primacy. Justifying the difference between GM's $80 billion MV and Tesla's $400 billion will become more difficult as time moves forward. I have written about GM vs. Tesla before in August of 2020 "GM Vs. Tesla: Buy GM If You Have A 5-Year Plan. My first summary point in that article was this: • GM's price can easily double from here but Tesla's maybe not so easy. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 3 von 30 Since that article was published on August 30, 2020, GM's stock has gone from $29.63 to $58.76, a gain of 98% while Tesla's price has gone from $498.32 to $623.31, a gain of 25%. That makes my first Summary point correct but about 4 years earlier than I had anticipated. Here are 5 reasons why I think GM's gains will continue through at least 2025. 1. GM versus Tesla by the numbers shows GM's 2025 potential. There are a lot of numbers to look at in this comparison but generally speaking, they show the enormous potential of GM's EV business. Of course, great potential does not always turn into great results but GM's commitment is impressive. We knew that GM has much more revenue than Tesla but the CAPEX number is even more impressive at 7x Tesla's. That huge CAPEX is why GM can commit $35 billion to EV development over the next 5 years. In fact, GM's CAPEX for the last 5 years totals a prodigious $125 billion. So the $35 billion is just for EV enhancement, there is even more for plants and equipment that are already in place. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 4 von 30 The OCF (Operational Cash Flow) is another indicator of GM's huge cash generation abilities. While GM's goal is to produce 1 million+ EVs by 2025 it's the other 6 million or so of non-EVs GM sells that will generate the cash flows to fund ongoing EV production. Tesla does not have that same non-EV source of cash flow. The unit sales are indicative of GM's huge reach in the world's largest market - China. GM's goal is to convert many of those 2.9 million units into EVs by 2025. That will likely dwarf whatever Tesla does in China over that same period. 2. GM's 1 million+ EV sales by 2025 goal will be a challenge for Tesla to match. GM's huge $35 billion investment in EVs by 2025 will drive the conversion to an all-EV GM by 2040. Since Tesla sold 500,000 Teslas in 2020 that would require about a 15% percent growth rate per year through 2025 to match GM's total. And although EV sales are growing rapidly, competition is growing even faster with Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) now leading in EV sales in Europe, replacing Tesla. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 5 von 30 Tesla also dropped to 5th place overall European sales. GM has also committed to 30 new EV models by 2025. How many models will Tesla have by then? 3. The Ultium battery modular design could be another long-term advantage. GM's idea with the Ultium battery is to make it based on small modules that can be combined to make any kind of battery needed. This means that GM can have battery factories (4 and counting) just generate millions of modules which can then be easily configured to fit any model old or new. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 6 von 30 Source: GM You can see the modules in the picture above in a flat more traditional configuration. But they can also be stacked horizontally or a combination of the two. The modular approach allows maximum flexibility for powering any EV from a compact SUV to the Hummer. Per GM engineering manager Kent Helfrich: 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 7 von 30 So for us, the Ultium platform is the answer to our entire light duty portfolio. So this Ultium platform includes not only the battery cell module and packs but also the drive, the electric motors and the gearing and the means to create the torque and diverter front-wheel drive, rear-wheel drive, e-assist all-wheel drive and performance wheel drive. So by mixing and matching these different components, we're able to create the entire light duty vehicle portfolio. So from a capital intensive perspective, we want to maintain the efficiency of capital. Source: Evercore TMT Conference. Making everything modular minimizes capital spending and all efforts can be concentrated in making a known and trusted product, Ultium, better and better over time. Of course, Tesla is famous for its battery prowess and this is not to say they won't be more than competitive. But GM's modular concept is another way to lower battery cost via manufacturing efficiencies as well as technology. 4. The Cruise AV (Autonomous Vehicle) adds to GM's value. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 8 von 30 GM has expanded its outside interest considerably under CEO Mary Barra. Perhaps the best-known effort is Cruise, a self-driving transport that has been selected by Dubai to provide up to 4,000 driverless taxis by 2030. Source: Forbes Although GM owns more than half the equity in Cruise, other big-name companies have joined GM in this AV business including Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Honda (NYSE:HMC), and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) giving Cruise even more credibility. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 9 von 30 Note that the valuation of $30 billion makes GM's share worth over $15 billion reducing GM's current market value net of Cruise to only $64 billion. And guess what's going to power Cruise? The modular, configurable, all-purpose Ultium battery, of course. 5. BrightDrop is a GM product that already has FedEx as a customer. Although Cruise is perhaps the best-known, GM is also involved in other carbonless ventures. One of these is BrightDrop, a last-mile delivery van system that includes EV panel trucks and has FedEx as a customer. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 10 von 30 Source: GMAuthority Check this short video out that shows the van working in the street in front of Willie Nelson's storefront. Yep, that pesky, modular, easy-to-configure Ultium battery will be powering FedEx too. Seems like Ultium is everywhere, doesn't it? Conclusion The investment graveyard is full of people who bet against Elon Musk and I am not suggesting that approach here. Tesla will continue to be successful but price-wise, I think its growth will be considerably more muted than it has in the past. GM, on the other hand, is just beginning a new journey to a carbonless future. It is being driven by CEO Mary Barra's laser-like focus on that goal. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 11 von 30 Here is Mary's vision of the future from the Q4 2020 earnings transcript. We envision a future where there is an EV offering for everyone. Our future will be inclusive and comprehensive, and it will create new businesses, and in some cases new brands. Source: Seeking Alpha So new businesses and new brands are coming to stodgy old GM. It is this transformation that you should invest in. GM is a long-term buy. If you found this article to be of value, please scroll up and click the "Follow" button next to my name. Note: members of my "Turnaround Stock Advisory" service receive my articles prior to publication, plus real-time updates. This article was written by Bill Zettler 10K Followers Author of Turnaround Stock Advisory Focused on value stocks with turnaround potential and low risk/reward ratio Disclosure: I am/we are long GM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. 10.07.21, 08:10 Seite 12 von 30 12 Likes 82 Comments Comments (82) Sort by Newest Mortadella Yesterday, 7:42 PM Comments (382) | + Follow GM has a history of turning out substandard cars (junk used by some). You are assuming they won't screw up their electric cars also. If they are made as poorly as the ICE cars all bets are off.
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