01.04.2019-07.04.2019 • No: 205

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KYRGYZSTAN’S REGIONAL POLITICS UNDER JEENBEKOV In the past two years, regional cooperation through the queues of cargo trucks. The conflict esca- in has been undergoing signif- (EAEU), and Jeenbekov is very optimistic lated further after a series of Atambayev’s icant changes due to the transformation of about the potential of the EAEU, being critical statements that resulted in the denun- the political establishment in some of the re- among the active supporters of the union ciation by the Kyrgyz government of $100 gional countries. , with its spe- and a possible introduction of its single cur- million of technical assistance offered by cial place in the region, the so-called “dem- rency. Notably, the EAEU membership has to support Kyrgyzstan’s EAEU ocratic island” of Central Asia, has also in- led to a significant increase in ’s eco- membership. The situation was regulated fluenced this trend. Therefore, it is worth ex- nomic and foreign policy influence in Kyr- only after the in Kyr- amining the current foreign policy of Kyr- gyzstan. Besides, during Russian President gyzstan, at the CSTO meeting on November gyzstan and its impact on the regionalization ’s visit to in March 30, 2017, when Nazarbayev and Jeenbekov process in Central Asia. 2019, the sides have agreed to expand the signed a road map of economic cooperation. Sooronbay Jeenbekov, the fifth president of territory of Russia’s air base in the northern The interaction with Tajikistan that is aimed Kyrgyzstan, came to power in October town of Kant to 60 hectares and increase its at developing economic and energy cooper- 2017, when the regional leaders were al- annual rent from $4.5 million to $4.79 mil- ation is also complicated by the border prob- ready starting their efforts to bring the exist- lion. lems. The parties have started the negotia- ing problematic issues closer toward resolu- The Kyrgyz President’s first was tion process to reconcile their differences, tion. He became the first Kyrgyz president, made to , where he took part in the but the issue is too complex. Only 504 km who came to power not as a result of a re- Summit of the Heads of the SCO States in of the 976 km-long Kyrgyz-Tajik border gime change. President Jeenbekov was Qingdao in June 2018. On the sidelines of have been delimited and demarcated, which among the founders of the Social Demo- the summit, Jeenbekov managed to arrange remains one of the key obstacles for bilateral cratic Party, led by ex-president Almazbek a deal with his Chinese counterpart on the cooperation. Recently, on March 13-14, Atambayev, therefore, in the beginning of allocation of the 600 million yuan grant for 2019, a conflict occurred between residents his tenure, he was perceived as a protégé of the implementation of projects that should of the village of Aksai of Kyrgyzstan and the Atambayev, yet Jeenbekov quickly man- create scientific and innovative agricultural village of Mekhnabad of Tajikistan due to aged to avoid an expected patronage of his technological parks, equip veterinary and the construction of the Aksai-Tamdyk by- former boss. His team, largely consisting of phytosanitary laboratories, develop the road pass road in the Batken region. As a result his family members with strong support network in Bishkek, and provide drinking of the violent clashes, two Tajiks were killed from the south of the country, demonstrates water to the country’s areas in need. Another and dozens from both sides injured. Never- a conservative approach with the elements significant project is the China-Kyrgyzstan- theless, it should be noted that trade rela- of religiosity. tions with Tajikistan in 2018 increased by Concerning international activities of Presi- railway, the details of which are 54% compared to 2017, which is very sig- dent Jeenbekov, there is a strong focus on still being finalized. If completed, the $5 bil- nificant as the trade with Uzbekistan only the region as he has already visited all the lion railway should contribute to the devel- grew by 8.6% and while there was a de- Central Asian states: Uzbekistan and Ka- opment of Kyrgyzstan’s trade and economic crease in trade with Kazakhstan and Turk- zakhstan in December 2017, Tajikistan in relations. However, Bishkek’s relations menistan by 5% and 10%, respectively. In February 2018 and Turkmenistan in August with Beijing are challenged by the anti-Chi- addition, both Bishkek and Dushanbe are in- 2018. In the frame of multinational cooper- nese sentiments that are growing domesti- terested in developing energy cooperation, ation, the president participated in the sum- cally, mostly because the Chinese invest- particularly, in the launch of the CASA- mit meeting of the Central Asian leaders in ments have become a large burden for the 1000 project, which envisages the genera- March 2018 in Astana, hosted the fourth country. For instance, over 2013-2018, tion of electricity in Kyrgyzstan and Tajiki- meeting of the High Council for Strategic China’s share in Kyrgyzstan's foreign debt stan and its subsequent resale to Afghani- Cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Tur- has increased from 2% to 44%. stan and . key, and organized the Third World Nomad Meanwhile, Jeenbekov has started to repair Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan’s cooperation with Games with the participation of high-rank- the Central Asian direction of Kyrgyzstan’s Turkmenistan is, probably, the least prob- ing guests, including the presidents of Ka- foreign policy with an important thaw in re- lematic as the two countries do not share zakhstan, , and Tatarstan (Russia), lations with Uzbekistan, with which it had borders. Both states are interested in the de- and the prime minister of . long-lasting issues over the disputed borders velopment of economic and trade ties and President Jeenbekov’s foreign policy priori- and on the construction of the Kambarata can contribute to addressing the region’s ties are circled around the main strategic dam. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan water and energy issues. During Jeen- partners of Kyrgyzstan, which are Russia, railway, the project that fully meets the in- bekov’s visit to Turkmenistan, the parties China, and Kazakhstan, whereas in his inau- terests of both Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, signed the declaration on strategic partner- guration speech President Jeenbekov named has become an important pillar of mutual ship and a number of other documents, in- Russia as the main priority, followed by the cooperation. In addition, the parties have in- cluding an agreement on avoiding double countries of Central Asia. Consequently, tensified negotiations on border issues and taxation. Russia, which accounts for more than 50% reached an agreement on the simplification To sum up, Kyrgyzstan, with its weak econ- of Kyrgyzstan’s external trade, was the des- of customs procedures to promote bilateral omy and dependence on external support, tination of his maiden foreign visit. By this, trade. strives for pursuing flexible policies towards Jeenbekov confirmed that Kyrgyzstan keeps Jeenbekov’s relations with Astana began the region. By supporting the wave of coop- its loyalty to Russia. It should be noted that with a diplomatic test on resolving the situ- eration among the Central Asian states, offi- Kyrgyzstan’s economy is extremely de- ation at the Kazakh-Kyrgyz border in the au- cial Bishkek is also interested in maintain- pendent on remittances of Kyrgyz labor mi- tumn of 2017, which had arisen even before ing efficient cooperation with its fraternal grants working mainly in Russia and Ka- his election as a president. The ties between neighbors, along with resolving the existing zakhstan, which constitute about 30% of the the two brotherly nations worsened in Sep- issues with them. Therefore, the Central country’s GDP, therefore the agreement on tember 2017 after a meeting of presidential Asian states, all of which, including Kyr- the application of the migration amnesty and candidate Omurbek Babanov with Kazakh gyzstan, have the border, water and energy the withdrawal of Kyrgyz citizens from the President . President issues as their key challenges to address, are “blacklist” was scored as a practically im- Atambayev responded with harsh critics of moving towards overcoming these obstacles portant achievement of Jeenbekov. Rela- Kazakhstan, which led to the problems on and developing pragmatic cooperation tions with Russia are also strengthened the Kazakh-Kyrgyz border, leading to long based on mutual benefits. Written by Albina Muratbek, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture  Speaking at NATO’s ministerial meet-  Uzbekistan Railways implements a new  First President of Kazakhstan – Leader ing in Washington, Turkish Foreign project to modernize the strategically of the Nation Nursultan Nazarbayev re- Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that important Andijan-Sawai-Khanabad ceived President of the International Ankara would develop constructive re- railway and organize intercity passen- Turkic Academy Darkhan Kydyrali. lations both with Russia and the West. ger traffic on this route. The project During the meeting, Kydyrali informed According to the minister, as an inde- worth more than $15 million provides Nazarbayev of the academy’s current pendent and sovereign country, Turkey for the upgrade of the 50 km railway activities and future work plans, includ- should have good relations with all section and the construction of a new ing the progress in the implementation neighboring countries and doesn’t have 10.5 km segment bypassing the territory of the tasks set at the latest session of the to choose between Russia and other na- Cooperation Council of Turkic Speak- tions. of Kyrgyzstan.  The Uzbekistan-Tajikistan commission ing States.  Acting President of Kazakhstan  According to an edict signed by Presi- Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev paid his first for trade and economic cooperation held its regular session in the Uzbek city of dent of Kyrgyzstan Sooronbai Jeen- foreign visit to Russia and met with his bekov, an organizing committee was counterpart Vladimir Putin. The leaders Termez. As a result of the talks, the par- ties signed a protocol confirming their formed that will prepare and conduct discussed issues of bilateral political, activities related to the 10th anniversary trade, economic, cultural and humani- interest in further expanding, through concerted measures, mutually benefi- of the 2010 April Revolution. The com- tarian cooperation, as well as regional mittee is tasked with drafting a plan of and international matters. They issued a cial bilateral cooperation in trade, en- joint statement pledging to strengthen commemorative events, while the gov- ergy, transportation, agriculture, light ernment is recommended to solve finan- traditionally friendly relations between industry, and science. the two countries. cial and other issues for the implemen-  The Russian enterprise, the Chelyabinsk tation of this plan.  The CSTO member states held consul- Pipe-Rolling Plant, won the tender of tations on cooperation in the field of  The emergency ministries of Kyrgyz- the Turkmengas state concern for the stan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan held arms control, disarmament and nonpro- supply of pipes for the Turkmenistan- liferation in . The delegations their first joint meeting in Bishkek. Rep- Afghanistan-Pakistan- gas pipe- resentatives of the three countries con- exchanged views on the current situa- line. According to a deal worth $219 tion in this field and prospects for its sidered ways to improve cross-border million, the plant will supply pipes for cooperation, including experience shar- further development, coordinating their the construction of the 214 km linear approaches to pressing issues of interna- ing in responding to transboundary nat- tional security, such as the prevention of part of the pipeline. ural and man-made disasters. They also arms race in outer space.  During the visit of the Russian delega- discussed the creation of a unified early  The CIS Council of Ministers of For- tion headed by Minister of Industry and warning system for disaster threats. eign Affairs met in Moscow to discuss Trade Denis Manturov to ,  The Expert Council on Public Health current issues on the international and the parties signed a number of agree- under the CIS Inter-Parliamentary As- regional agenda, and prospects for ex- ments on economic cooperation. At the sembly held a meeting in St. Petersburg panding economic and humanitarian co- joint business forum, representatives of to discuss the development of medical operation within the organization. In more than 60 Russian companies oper- tourism in the CIS countries. The partic- particular, the parties reviewed draft ating in various sectors of the economy, ipants reviewed such problems of med- agreements on the coordination of inter- including agriculture, ICT, automotive ical tourism as the increasing commer- state relations in the field of fundamen- engineering, chemical industry and cialization of health care, a wide varia- tal research and on cooperation in mu- other sectors, established partnerships tion in costs, underdevelopment of in- seum studies. with Azerbaijani entrepreneurs. ternational medical insurance and other  The Tajik-Kyrgyz commission for de-  The delegation of Kazakhstan’s Minis- pressing issues. limitation and demarcation of the bilat- try of Digital Development, Defense  Kazakhstan’s Lev Gumilyov Eurasian eral border held its meeting in Du- and Aerospace Industry paid a working National University opened its repre- shanbe. The parties signed a protocol, visit to Azerbaijan to meet with the sentative office at the Modern Educa- under which the two sides agreed to co- country’s government officials. During tion and Research Institute in Brussels. operate on preventing provocations the talks, the parties exchanged views The office is tasked with developing co- along the disputable stretches of the mu- on prospects of bilateral interaction in operation with European universities, tual 976 km long border, of which only the , as well as on transport, promoting double degree programs, 504 km have so far been delimited and defense and aerospace, ICT, digitaliza- seeking partners for Kazakh researchers demarcated. tion, military-technical cooperation and as part of EU scientific grants and at-  The delegation of Uzbekistan, led by the other areas of common interest. tracting European students to Kazakh- country’s Foreign Minister Abdulaziz  According to the forecast of the Asian stan. Kamilov, visited Kabul to meet with Development Bank, Kazakhstan’s eco-  The Belarusian border city of Brest, President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani. nomic growth will slowdown in 2019 which celebrates its millennial anniver- The parties discussed the Afghan peace and 2020 due to lower oil prices and re- sary this year, was awarded the status of process, including a possibility of hold- duced growth in China and Russia. The the cultural capital of the CIS in 2019, ing talks between the central govern- the 15th city to be given this title. More ment and the Taliban movement in bank expects the growth of Kazakh- Tashkent, regional connectivity, infra- stan’s GDP to moderate to 3.5% in 2019 than 30 major cultural events with the structure projects and economic ties be- and 3.3% in 2020 from 4.1% achieved participation of representatives of the tween the two countries. in 2018. Average inflation is expected CIS countries are planned to be held in Brest.  The security councils of Kazakhstan to remain at 6% and moderate to 5.5% and Uzbekistan held extended bilateral in 2020.  According to the Ministry of Health of consultations in Tashkent. The parties  According to the World Bank’s report, Azerbaijan, the country’s population of- discussed issues of regional security and in 2018, the amount of remittances sent ficially reached 10 million. A baby girl sustainable development in the context home by Ukrainian labor migrants ex- deemed to be the 10 millionth Azerbai- of the situation in Afghanistan, as well ceeded $14 billion, up about 19% com- jani was born in to a couple of in- as ways to improve the efficiency of in- pared to 2017. Thus, has be- ternally displaced people from Na- teraction between their border services come the largest remittance recipient gorno-Karabakh. The baby was given and customs authorities in the fight among the countries of Europe and Cen- the name Mehriban, after Azerbaijan’s against smuggling and violations of cus- tral Asia, ahead of Kyrgyzstan, Tajiki- first lady and first vice president, toms legislation. stan, Uzbekistan, and Russia. Mehriban Aliyeva.

Prepared by Dauren Aben and Kanat Makhanov