Russian and Serbian Minorities After Secession
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ETHNIC POLITICS IN NEW STATES: RUSSIAN AND SERBIAN MINORITIES AFTER SECESSION Anna Batta Dissertation Prepared for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS May 2013 APPROVED: Idean Salehyan, Major Professor John Ishiyama, Co-Major Professor T. David Mason, Committee Member Steven Forde, Committee Member Richard Ruderman, Chair of the Department of Political Science Mark Wardell, Dean of the Toulouse Graduate School Batta, Anna. Ethnic Politics in New States: Russian and Serbian Minorities after Secession. Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science), May 2013, 295 pp., 22 tables, 15 figures, 234 titles. New states are often born in a volatile environment, in which the survival of the new country is uncertain. While analysis of the nationalizing new governments exists, research focuses mainly on domestic politics. I argue that the treatment of minority that remains in the new states is a function of the interaction of the dual threat posed by the minority itself domestically on one hand and the international threat coming from the mother state to protect its kin abroad on the other hand. Specifically, I argue that there is a curvilinear relationship between domestic and international threat and the extent of discrimination against the politically relevant minority. Most discrimination takes place when domestic and international threats are moderate because in this case there is a balance of power between the government, the minority, and the rump state. With time-series-cross-sectional (TSCS) data analysis this dissertation systematically tests the treatment of Russian and Serbian minorities in all post-Soviet and post-Yugoslav states between 1991 and 2006 and finds statistically significant results for the curvilinear hypothesis. Territorial concentration of the minority and the ratio of national capabilities between the mother and the seceded states prove to be especially important predictors of minority treatment. In addition, with most similar systems (MSS), most different systems (MDS) design methods, and directed case studies I apply the curvilinear hypothesis to the Russian minority in the Baltic States and the Central Asian Republics, and also to the Serb minority in the countries of the former Yugoslavia to present a detailed analysis. Copyright 2013 by Anna Batta ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION: STRANDED ETHNIC MINORITIES ....................................................... 1 1.1 A Different Kind of Diaspora ................................................................................... 8 1.2 Theoretical Sketch................................................................................................. 10 1.3 Outline of Dissertation .......................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 2 THE RUSSIAN AND SERBIAN MINORITIES .................................................................. 20 2.1 History of Migration .............................................................................................. 20 2.1.1 The Russians .............................................................................................. 20 2.1.2 The Serbs ................................................................................................... 24 2.2 The Russian Minority after Independence ........................................................... 29 2.3 The Serb Minority after Independence ................................................................ 34 2.4 Relations with Russia ............................................................................................ 38 2.5 Relations with Serbia ............................................................................................ 45 CHAPTER 3 A THEORY OF MINORITY PROTECTION AFTER SECESSION ........................................ 53 3.1 Bargaining Literature ............................................................................................ 55 3.2 Secession and Irredentism Literature ................................................................... 57 3.3 Minority Rights Literature ..................................................................................... 62 3.4 Domestic and International Threat: A Curvilinear Relationship ........................... 64 3.5 Domestic Threat .................................................................................................... 72 3.5.1 Threat of Further Secession ...................................................................... 72 3.5.2 Territorial Concentration .......................................................................... 77 3.5.3 Zero-Sum Game and Threat to National Authority .................................. 80 3.6 International Threat .............................................................................................. 83 3.7 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 86 CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 92 4.1 Research Strategy and Justification ...................................................................... 93 4.2 Measuring the Concepts ....................................................................................... 95 4.2.1 Dependent Variable .................................................................................. 95 iii 4.2.2 Independent Variables .............................................................................. 97 4.2.3 Control Variables..................................................................................... 100 4.3 Quantitative Results ............................................................................................ 102 CHAPTER 5 THE RUSSIAN MINORITY IN THE BALTIC STATES ...................................................... 117 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 117 5.2 Historical Background ......................................................................................... 120 5.3 The Treatment of the Russian Minority in the Baltic States ............................... 123 5.3.1 Political Discrimination ........................................................................... 123 5.4 Domestic Threat .................................................................................................. 131 5.4.1 Threat of Further Secession .................................................................... 131 5.4.2 Threat to National Authority .................................................................. 141 5.5 International Threat ............................................................................................ 151 5.5.1 Relations with Russia .............................................................................. 151 5.6 Discussion............................................................................................................ 156 CHAPTER 6 THE RUSSIAN MINORITY IN CENTRAL ASIA .............................................................. 167 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 167 6.2 Historical Background ......................................................................................... 171 6.3 The Treatment of the Russian Minority in Central Asia ..................................... 176 6.3.1 Political Discrimination ........................................................................... 176 6.4 Domestic Threat .................................................................................................. 190 6.4.1 Threat of Further Secession .................................................................... 192 6.4.2 Threat to National Authority .................................................................. 203 6.5 International Threat ............................................................................................ 208 6.5.1 Relations with Russia .............................................................................. 208 6.6 Discussion............................................................................................................ 213 CHAPTER 7 THE SERB MINORITY AFTER THE DISSOLUTION OF YUGOSLAVIA............................ 224 7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 224 7.2 History of the Serb Minority until Secession ...................................................... 227 7.3 The Treatment of the Serb Minority ................................................................... 231 7.3.1 Political Discrimination ........................................................................... 231 iv 7.4 Domestic Threat .................................................................................................. 239 7.4.1 Threat of Further Secession .................................................................... 239 7.4.2 Threat to National Authority .................................................................. 247 7.5 International Threat ............................................................................................ 251 7.5.1 Relations with Serbia .............................................................................. 251 7.6 Kosovo ................................................................................................................. 256