Nairobi Forum, 21 February 2013

Rift Valley Institute Meeting Report Nairobi Forum, 21 February 2013 POLITICS NOW Ethiopia After Meles: National and regional implications broader region, to assess progress in the post-Meles Key points political transition, and to weigh the implications for § Meles was instrumental in the political anD relations with Eritrea, Kenya, Sudan, and South developmental changes Ethiopia has Sudan, and for state-building in Somalia. undergone in the last two DecaDes. The Meles legacy § The ruling EPRDF was boosteD by the out- pouring of national grief on Meles’ death Opening the forum, the event chair, Tobias anD Hailemariam Desalegn succeeDeD him as Hagmann, began by detailing three different strands Prime Minister without controversy. of Meles’ legacy, which the panellists would address. Firstly, as Prime Minister, Meles was the driving force § There have been as yet no Discernible shifts behind politics in Ethiopia, the architect of a system in government policy since the Death of of ethnic federalism, and the leader of the ruling Meles, but this coulD change as a collective Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front leaDership style emerges. (EPRDF). Hagmann asked whether Meles, a § Meles was the Driving force behinD the charismatic and influential character, had effectively promotion of IGAD as the moDel for regional still been governing Ethiopia from the grave? cooperation anD the primary channel for Secondly, the Meles legacy has had an impact on diplomacy and security anD its influence Ethiopia’s relationships with her neighbours and the coulD be affecteD by his death. politics of the Horn, particularly in the form of IGAD, § The new Ethiopian leaDership appears more which has become a critical diplomatic forum for willing to engage with the FeDeral conflict resolution, in large part due to his direction Government of Somalia but the news corDial and initiative. Lastly, having played a central role in relationship neeDs to be institutionalizeD. propagating and implementing the idea of the across both governments ‘developmental state’, Meles died leaving Ethiopia as Participants one of the darlings of the international donor community and the recipient of huge sums of foreign Tobias Hagmann Roskilde University, Denmark, and aid. What signs have emerged in the last six months RVI Fellow (Chair) that the new leadership in Ethiopia is breaking from Asnake Kefale Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia or continuing with Meles’ policies in the domestic, Sally Healy Independent analyst and RVI Fellow regional and international arenas? Ibrahim Farah University of Nairobi, Kenya National development IntroDuction Asnake Kefale addressed the question of Meles’ The death of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi record within Ethiopia. While recognizing that in August 2012 marked the beginning of the end of a opinion on his legacy is divided, Kefale argued, few generation of ‘reform rebels’ that came to power in dispute that Meles was pivotal in effecting many of East Africa in the 1990s. Prime Minister from 1995 the tremendous changes undergone by Ethiopia in until his death, Meles’ political influence within the last 20 years. The introduction of a system of Ethiopia and the East Africa region was significant. A ethnic federalism, vast improvements in formidable intellect and at one time the face of a infrastructure, and the expansion of education and heralded African renaissance, he became a key ally of health services are all positively attributed to the the West in the global war on terrorism. leadership of Meles Zenawi. Then again, critics Six months after his death, it is an appropriate time question the record of democratization in Ethiopia, to reflect on his legacy, both in Ethiopia and the Rift Valley Institute | Meeting Report | Nairobi Forum | Ethiopia after Meles | 6 March 2012 | Page 2 of 3 arguing that stability has been pursued over political the creation of the African Union Mission in Somalia, pluralism and freedom of speech. AMISOM. 1 While it is no coincidence that IGAD’s In terms of the succession and the way it was priorities match Ethiopia’s diplomatic interests, such managed, Kefale recalled widespread anxiety and a regional approach has nonetheless produced concern over the risks of inter-elite competition and notable successes, Healy argued. Meles repositioned instability in a political vacuum left by Meles. But, Ethiopia, both within the region and within the Kefale suggested, the EPRDF seized upon the out- paradigm of international development. He pouring of national grief to strengthen and shore up capitalized on renewed interest in Africa in the early the ruling party’s legitimacy, and Hailemariam 1990s and the newfound preference on the part of Desalegn was able to succeed as donors for countries with strong governments to address high Prime Minister without ‘There are early signs that a controversy. Speculating about levels of poverty. Ethiopia the nature of the political style of collective leadership became the donors’ darling, transitions taking place, Kefale is emerging, characterized by receiving substantial aid sums that in turn produced impressive perceived early signs that a style greater consultation and of collective leadership is re- growth figures. consensus building.’ emerging, characterized by Healy concluded by speculating greater consultation and how these relationships—with consensus building. the region and with the donor community—will be This style of governance, he added, disappeared after managed in the absence of Meles. If the collective the 2000 split in the Tigrayan People’s Liberation leadership that Kefale described is less decisive, it is Front when Meles’ paramount position was possible that Ethiopia’s role in the region may solidified. Dangers in collective leadership include diminish. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea elite competition and inefficiency. But thus far there could reignite if the current leadership proves unable have been no discernible shifts in government policy to contain its neighbour without resort to arms, as since the death of Meles. As the country continues to Meles had done since the end of the war in 2000. make the transition from a Meles-dominated era, Meles’ successors may not be as effective at however, changes in leadership style and structure negotiating aid from the international community, are inevitable. Healy added, or at challenging the so-called ‘Washington consensus’—but short of an escalation of human rights abuses that the donor community Foreign policy would be unable to ignore, it is likely that Ethiopia Addressing Meles Zenawi’s record in matters of will remain a highly attractive recipient of foreign aid. foreign policy, Sally Healy remarked that while success in this field is difficult to measure, Meles Ethiopia and Somalia undoubtedly made a distinct impact both regionally and on the international scene. He was able to Continuing the theme of foreign policy, Ibrahim identify and exploit particular trends that emerged in Farah considered the implications of Meles’ death for the last two decades, she argued, specifically post- relations between Ethiopia and Somalia. He outlined Cold War regionalism and the the different modes of restoration of aid and ‘Meles was the driving force engagement tried by the late prime minister in Somalia during international attention to Africa. behind the promotion of While he didn’t create these different periods of his rule. trends, they were waves he rode IGAD as the paramount First, Farah recalled, there was a to his own and Ethiopia’s vehicle for regional period of constructive advantage. engagement in the early 1990s, diplomacy and for addressing typified by the 1993 Addis Over the last 20 years, new security concerns.’ Ababa Conference on National approaches have emerged to Reconciliation in Somalia, at resolve longstanding tensions and conflicts in the which Meles was instrumental in bringing Somali Horn of Africa. Meles was the driving force behind leaders together. The mid to late 1990s witnessed a the promotion of IGAD as the paramount vehicle for more offensive approach, evident in the incursion of regional diplomacy and for addressing security concerns. IGAD has become an international model 1 Paul D. Williams, ‘AMISOM in Transition: The Future of the for regional cooperation, credited with being the African Union Mission in Somalia’ (RVI Nairobi Forum Briefing “midwife” to the independence of South Sudan and Paper No. 1), 13 February 2013; free download at www.riftvalley.net/publications. Rift Valley Institute | Meeting Report | Nairobi Forum | Ethiopia after Meles | 6 March 2012 | Page 3 of 3 Ethiopian troops into Somalia in 1996 and 1997, and developing between Ethiopia and Somalia. The future the strategic engagement with particular factions in for regional integration remains uncertain, one western Somalia. After this, from 2000 onwards, participant commented, given institutional Meles pursued a policy of containment, which broke weaknesses within IGAD and the East African down between 2006-9 when Ethiopian forces fought Community. For now, the merging of trade blocs alongside the Transitional Federal Government across the continent seems like a distant dream. against Islamists within Somalia. Closing the forum, Hagmann reflected that Meles’ sudden death had demonstrated once again that Farah suggested that some changes in Ethiopia’s however good the analysis, major political policy towards Somalia could be discerned since developments are often unforeseen. August 2012. He

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