DBS Equity Picks
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China / Hong Kong Market Focus DBS Equity Picks (Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Therefore, investment products mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors) Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 7 Nov 2019 ANALYST Position for a short term rebound Dennis LAM +852 36684177 [email protected] Byron LAM +852 36684169 [email protected] Add DBS Equity Picks at a glance SHK Properties (16 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), BOCHK (2388 HK) Ke y fa c ts and HKEx (388 HK) into Blue Chip Inception Date 22 Jun 2018 T WRR (%) 8.23% Remove Start Value (HK$) 1,000,000 TWRR Ann (%) 5.90% China Mobile (941 HK) and Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK) from Blue Current Value (HK$) 1,082,264 Total Div. Recd' (HK$) 45,520 Chip; Fortune REIT (788 HK) and HKBN (1310 HK) from Dividend Cash level (HK$) 2,101 Ca te gorie s October has proven to be an eventful month, with US-China trade BLUE CHIP DIVIDEND GROWTH talks, HK’s ongoing social unrest and China’s Fourth Plenary Provides steady growth over a Provides steady income stream Provides capital growth over 12 Session being the focus of the market. Given that the prevailing longer time period months negative sentiment has been factored in, we have taken a less DBS Equity Picks Constituents conservative approach in our selection. Entry Last UGL* Div We believe it is time to remove some of the very defensive names # of Price Price No. of (CD) paid from our top picks, such as Shenzhou Int’l (2313 HK), HKBN (1310 Stock Entry Date shares (HK$) (HK$) day s % (HK$) SHK PPT 6-Nov-19 680 121.3 121.3 1 0.0% 0.00 HK), Fortune REIT (778 HK), China Mobile (941 HK). In their place, MENGNIU DAIRY 2-Aug-19 2,900 31.0 30.5 97 -1.6% 0.00 we have selected HKEx (388 HK), BOCHK (2388) and SHKP (16 TENCENT 22-Mar-19 230 365.0 334.0 230 -8.5% 1.00 HK). These are Blue chip names which have been PING AN 6-Nov-19 880 94.0 94.0 1 0.0% 0.00 underperforming YTD but the key negatives have been mostly BOCHK 6-Nov-19 2,960 28.1 28.1 1 0.0% 0.00 HKEX 6-Nov-19 330 251.2 251.2 1 0.0% 0.00 priced in. LINK REIT 5-Aug-19 930 90.7 85.6 94 -5.6% 0.00 XIABUXIABU 2-Aug-19 8,230 10.9 10.5 97 -3.9% 0.06 As for the rest, we continue to prefer Food & Beverage names CG SERVICES 2-May-19 5,730 14.9 27.4 189 83.1% 0.08 such as China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) and Xiabuxiabu (520 HK). CHINA EDUCATION 28-May-19 6,660 12.5 11.9 163 -4.6% 0.00 SHIMAO PROPERTY 3-Sep-19 3,390 21.9 28.5 65 30.1% 0.60 For sectors that offer secular growth and are not impacted by the CHINA RAIL CN-H 4-Oct-19 9,900 8.7 9.0 34 3.2% 0.00 trade war, we maintain our preference on China Education Group A v erage 81 7.7% (839 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK), and Tencent (700 *Unrealized gain/loss HK). Cha nge s ove r the pa st month We maintain Shimao (813 HK) in the list for its strong sales Return CD outlook, stable margins, high dividend yield and healthy balance Stock Date # of shares Price ($) (%) sheet. A ddition SHK PPT 6 Nov 680 121.3 0.0% PING AN 6 Nov 880 94.0 0.0% We add Ping An Insurance back (2318 HK) for its continual focus BOCHK 6 Nov 2,960 28.1 0.0% of higher margin products and better product mix. HKEX 6 Nov 330 251.2 0.0% Remov al CHINA MOBILE 6 Nov 1,100 83.9 -6.9% SHENZHOU INTL GP 6 Nov 830 109.0 4.8% HKBN LTD 6 Nov 7,300 13.4 10.8% FORTUNE REIT 6 Nov 8,300 10.4 -7.2% DBS Equity Picks Performance Since Inception One Year sa - CS / AH China/Hong Kong Market Focus DBS Equity Picks Blue Chips Bank of China Hong Kong Despite ongoing US/China trade uncertainties, BOCHK has maintained its Price Chart (2388 HK) guidance for FY19 loan growth to be in the high single digit driven by strong HK$ Relative Index Sector: HK Banks credit demands across the board; Expect BOCHK to continue to deliver 8-9% loan 45.0 200 growth p.a. in FY20-21F. 40.0 180 35.0 160 30.0 140 25.0 120 Risk Factor : Worse-than-expected asset quality. 100 20.0 80 Price: HK$28.10 12-mth TP: HK$33.00 Upside: 17.4% 15.0 60 10.0 40 Date added to list: 6-Nov-19 Price when added HK$28.10 5.0 20 Days passed 1 Dividend received HK$0.00 0.0 0 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19 % gain/(loss) 0.0% % chg relative to HSI: 0.0% Boc Hong Kong Holdings (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) China Mengniu (2319 HK) Solid outlook driven by core SKUs and margin enhancement from better product- Price Chart mix and lower A&P spending; Expect UHT milk and UHT yogurt to remain the key HK$ Relative Index Sector: Food & Beverage drivers, while the company will continue to invest in milk powder and ice-cream; 40.0 Delivering 24% y-o-y earnings growth in FY19F, and another 20% growth in 35.0 250 FY20F. 30.0 200 25.0 Risk Factor : Demand slowdown, raw material cost fluctuation 20.0 150 15.0 Price: HK$30.50 12-mth TP: HK$34.30 Upside: 12.5% 100 10.0 50 Date added to list: 2-Aug-19 Price when added HK$31.00 5.0 Days passed 97 Dividend received HK$0.00 0.0 0 % gain/(loss) -1.6% % chg relative to HSI: -4.5% Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19 China Mengniu Dairy (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) HKEx (388 HK) The trend of US-listed Chinese companies to secondary list in HK will continue, Price Chart due to the recent new listing regime and the escalation of the Sino-US trade war; HK$ Relative Index Sector: Financials Expect Northbound trading to benefit substantially from MSCI China A-share 350.0 160 inclusion. The increasing number of derivative products would also boost HKEx’s 300.0 140 earnings. 250.0 120 100 200.0 80 Risk Factor : Weak market sentiment 150.0 60 25.8% Price: HK$251.20 12-mth TP: HK$316.00 Upside: 100.0 40 Date added to list: 6-Nov-19 Price when added HK$251.20 50.0 20 Days passed 1 Dividend received HK$0.00 0.0 0 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19 % gain/(loss) 0.0% % chg relative to HSI: 0.0% Hong Kong Exs.& Clear. (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) Ping An Insurance (2318 Positive on Ping An’s upcoming FYP growth, given both insurers’ have managed Price Chart HK) to expand their agency headcount amid last year’s challenging environment. We HK$ Relative Index believe the rebound in bond yield helps to alleviate the concerns over the rising Sector: China insurers 120.0 250 reserving risk as we move into FY20F. 100.0 200 80.0 150 Risk Factor : competition, economic slowdown in China 60.0 100 Price: HK$94.00 12-mth TP: HK$115.00 Upside: 22.3% 40.0 50 Date added to list: 6-Nov-19 Price when added HK$94.00 20.0 Days passed 1 Dividend received HK$0.00 0.0 0 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19 % gain/(loss) 0.0% % chg relative to HSI: 0.0% PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) OF CHINA 'H' (LHS) Page 2 China/Hong Kong Market Focus DBS Equity Picks SHK Properties As the largest home builder in town, its share price performance should correlate Price Chart (16 HK) with the fundamentals in the HK real estate market; For FY20, SHKP targets to sell HK$ Relative Index Sector: HK Property HK$47.5bn worth of properties comprising HK$40bn in HK and HK$7.5bn in 160.0 160 China; Valuation is undemanding from a historical perspective and should help 140.0 140 cushion any downside risk on share price. 120.0 120 100.0 100 Risk Factor : Deterioration in property demand 80.0 80 60.0 60 11.8% Price: HK$121.30 12-mth TP: HK$135.60 Upside: 40.0 40 Date added to list: 6-Nov-19 Price when added HK$121.30 20.0 20 Days passed 1 Dividend received HK$0.00 0.0 0 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19 % gain/(loss) 0.0% % chg relative to HSI: 0.0% Sun Hung Kai Properties (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) Tencent (700 HK) Enhancing its position in the online advertising business, through partnerships Price Chart with e-commerce platforms; Positive on ad load growth from under-monetised HK$ Relative Index Sector: Technology WeChat Moment and Mini Program; Expect Tencent to deliver a segmental 500.0 revenue CAGR of 29% during FY18-20F, due to its dominant position in the 450.0 300 400.0 250 online game segment.