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WORLD BLUEPRINT FOR A DECADE OF CHALLENGES

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WORLD THE CASE FOR INFORMATION SHARING

PAGE 25 & A TEXT IN THE TIME OF COVID-19 WORLD BY SUN YUXI INDIA–CHINA FORMERBY NIRUPAMA FOREIGN SECRETARY OF INDIARAO FORMER CHINESE AMBASSADOR TO INDIA BORDER DISPUTE FULL REPORT | PAGES 2-3 PAGE 26

PRIVATE SECTOR RESPONSIBILITIES IN A PANDEMIC | PAGE 8 p2 MAY, 2020 SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

FACTS BILATERAL TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA ARE THE CHINA AND INDIA TOUCHED TWO MOST POPULOUS & COUNTRIES AND FASTEST GROWING MAJOR US$89.6 ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD FIGURES BILLION IN 2017–18 INDIA AND CHINA: ANCIENT BONDS NEED FRESH STIMULUS The India-China relationship, despite differences, is too important to squander. The future should be built on a balanced partnership that works for a world order that is inclusive, open, compassionate, development-oriented, and respects diversity

Chinese as brothers, anticipating decades must serve the cause of The Synergia the slogan of the fifties, but with the peoples, not just mercantilist Foundation in much more intellectual depth and interests. The aspirational youths of partnership with feeling. In Liang’s words, “We are both countries must not be denied Centre for China brothers, India is our elder brother livelihoods, skill enhancement, and Globalization, Beijing and we are the younger. This is not access to the fruits of technological organised a joint webinar to only an expression of courtesy. We advancement and progress. Public have got ample proof of that state- health and education must become initiate a dialogue to build ment in history… Indians did not the new frontiers of cooperation. an understanding across covet anything from China. They Cooperation in scientific research, the border, on both sides. gave us the sadhana (contempla- new technologies that have mass Excerpts from keynote tion, meditation, and focus) of application and benefits includ- speeches by Former Indian freedom, and maitri (friendship). ing in urban development and Foreign Secretary, Nirupama .... Rabindranath has come to mass transportation, environment Rao and Former Chinese am- us from the country of our elder protection and pollution control, bassador to India Sun Yuxi.... brother.” Tagore responded saying climate change and renewable re- that India felt a “very great kinship sources, bio-tech, pharmaceuticals, with China”, sraddha as he called it, compounds the tragedy because peaceful commerce, and rich cul- electronics and communications which translates to mutual respect, “grown-up nations are supposed tural traditions. But looking back on should form part of our bilateral awareness, and kinship. to behave like grown-ups”. Where the last 70 years, both are seemingly relationship. Tagore’s ideal was the universal there should be convergence, there intent on charting a course more in Hundreds of global leaders and BY NIRUPAMA RAO human spirit linked by reason and is divergence and dissatisfaction. line with habits and practices im- opinion makers have advocated the rationality and rising above the Populism, protectionism and the ported from the Western playbook, absolute need for a COVID-19 vac- Former Foreign Secretary of India, narrow confines of nationalism. retreat to isolationism is the natural the precepts of Westphalia seems to cine, which when developed, would and retired Ambassador of India Today, as every corner of the world backlash from the dislocation. Many override the principles of equality be available to all -- patent-free -- to China and the United States is ravaged by a virus, the world worlds are colliding. and mutual benefit, and the peace- and produced at scale, at no cost to needs to be reminded of the need What is diplomacy without a ful coexistence of all beings that the people everywhere. This ‘people’s he India-China relation- for rationality, for the respect of uni- strategy, without a vision? And a great Sakyamuni preached 2,500 vaccine’ should be a common goal ship, despite differ- versality that rises above the narrow vision must be defined by the goals years ago. towards which both countries must ences, is too important confines of cartographic borders. we plan for the future. We have to Will the pandemic teach us les- pool scientific talents, resources to squander. The future think about a future when we chart sons? The India-China relationship, both human and material. There is should be built on a bal- CHALLENGES OF a vision and plan a strategy. What is despite their differences, is too also a need to institute an impartial ancedT partnership that works for a the future we want? It is not about important to squander. The issues inquiry into the origins of the pan- world order that is inclusive, open, THE PANDEMIC kicking the can down the road. Two that should determine our future demic so that its cause and spread compassionate, development- to three years from now, what is the are questions of peace, not conflict. can be unravelled and fool-proof oriented, and respects diversity The world is on edge. It is on the world we want to see? Both have to avoid ‘the Thucydides protocols can be developed. brink of what could be a cataclysm Trap’, although in the present As the Canadian historian Mar- that is both societal and economic context it has not been applied garet MacMillan said recently, the OLD BONDS which tests human resilience. And THE COMPLEX precisely; the war between Athens river of history is changing direction BETWEEN CHINA yet, nations act as if it is business EQUATION and Sparta cannot be a paradigm and the need of the hour is moral as usual, continuing to pursue for a 21st century Asia. leadership. Multilateralism that es- AND INDIA outstanding differences, unresolved India and China have a complex The May Fourth Movement was chews hegemony, needs strength- problems, old grievances, and relationship. Both are Asian giants, an anti-imperialist, cultural, and po- ening and preservation. While there would be ups and rivalries, in the race towards global but with an irksome frequency, their litical movement which grew out of Organisations such as the WHO downs in geopolitics, with regional leadership or regional supremacy. interaction is fraught with tugs and student protests in Beijing on that cannot be dismissed just because and global competition between Insularity, the chase of narrow ambi- pulls, with repetitive suspicion, and day in 1919. The spirit of the young its work during the pandemic could nations, there are certain threads tion, jockeying for spheres of influ- issues that have defied resolution men and women of China, who led have been better. WHO is relevant that bind them together. India and ence, instead of interdependence despite all the positive outcomes that movement, is remembered to to come up with sensible strategies China, two of the world’s ancient -- seem to be the preferred route. that capture media headlines when this day --- their quest for scientific to combat the pandemic, and to civilisations, have always shared a The speed with which the our leaders meet, informally or enquiry, modernisation, develop- develop global protocols for mitiga- cultural bond. This two-nation con- disaster, the anthropological threat formally. This year commemorates ment, freedom from bondage and tion, treatment and prevention of nect was never more highlighted (a definition coined by French 70 years of diplomatic relations equality for all. The present genera- the disease as also against future than in the reverence of Rabindra- President Emmanuel Macron between the two countries. While a tion too must be guided by that biological threats. nath Tagore. The joint celebration recently) that is COVID-19, has pandemic rages, there is news that spirit, of constructive cooperation The future should be built on of the birthday of this great poet, overwhelmed all nations and we are engaging in confrontations rather than mutually wasting and a balanced partnership between artist, novelist and musician -– a it should induce much greater along our shared borders. narrow definitions of interest. India and China, as mutually re- true Renaissance man – both in sobriety in the way nations think. New generations of young Indi- sponsible countries, that work for a India and China with equal fanfare, Sadly, there is a game of global ans and Chinese have grown up on world order that is inclusive, open, is a manifestation of such bonds. finger-pointing, and countries such a diet of strong nationalism, quite THE FUTURE PATH compassionate, development- When Tagore visited China in as the United States and China, the different from the vision of Tagore, First and foremost, both nations oriented and respects diversity 1924, he said: “Where is the differ- leading powers, have also suc- and despite the processes of global- have to ensure that there are and the rule of international law. ence between China and India?” In cumbed to this exercise, infusing isation that like a tide, have lifted up self-correcting mechanisms that Both must build middle ground in Beijing, where “an almost inconceiv- the current situation with even boats in both nations. Historically, are built into our relationship that a polarised world and stress on the able crowd” turned up to greet him greater complexity. The grammar both nations are not known to have will prevent it from becoming core values as a humanity. It could at the station, he was felicitated by of so-called diplomatic language practised hegemony, or indulged prey to self-destructive threats of perhaps be the start of a ‘Himala- a gathering of scholars led by Liang has descended into depths that in armed conquest, rather we are conflict. The trade and investment yan Consensus’ between India and Qichao, who spoke of Indians and reduce it to street insults. This only purveyors of civilisational values, or relationship built over the last two China that can apply to the world. MAY, 2020 p3 SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

GROWTH IN DIPLOMATIC CHINA AND INDIA GDP 2018: 13.6 TRILLION (CHINA) AND ECONOMIC TOGETHER SHARE 19.46% AND 2.7 TRILLION (INDIA) INFLUENCE HAS AND 27.18% OF TOTAL GDP GROWTH RATE (2019) INCREASED THE GLOBAL WEALTH IN INDIA: 5% IN THE FIRST QUARTER SIGNIFICANCE OF THEIR NOMINAL AND PPP TERMS OF FY20 BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP RESPECTIVELY CHINA: 6.2% IN Q2 OF 2019 WE CAN WIN THIS BATTLE BY WORKING TOGETHER: SUN YUXI Solidarity and cooperation are the most powerful weapons to fight against COVID-19, and finger-pointing would be detri- mental to the international community, says former Chinese Ambassador Sun Yuxi

BY SUN YUXI SINO INDIA TRADE RELATIONS Former Chinese Ambassador to India. India is the third-largest pro- BILATERAL am here to talk about coop- ducer of pharmaceuticals in the eration between China and world by volume. The country’s TRADE India on fighting against the Department of Pharmaceuticals COVID pandemic. reported that it supplies 20% AS OF FEB 2020 My three years as Chinese of global exports of ‘generic’ ambassador in India left me drugs. deeply in love with the land and its I It is estimated that people. During my tenure here, Chi- na and India established a strategic, Chinese manufacturers India also produces 65% of the cooperative partnership for peace make around 40% of all World Health Organisation’s and prosperity. Since then, I think APIs (active pharma- requirement of DPT – diphthe- our people have enjoyed more in- ceutical ingredients) ria, pertussis and tetanus – and depth exchanges and cooperation, tuberculosis, as well as 90% of used worldwide and that and our two governments have its measles vaccines. coordinated more on major interna- China and India are the tional and regional affairs. source of 75% to 80% of March 18: India provides 15 85.17 Now, the COVID-19 outbreak is the APIs imported to the tonnes of medical supplies to posing a severe challenge to man- BILLION YUAN kind. While global efforts have come U.S. . coronavirus-hit China compris- to a crucial point, I think solidar- ing masks, gloves and other ity and cooperation are the most emergency medical equipment $12 BILLION powerful weapons to fight against at a cost of about Rs. 2.11 the epidemic. crore. QUOTE box: Viruses are en- emies of mankind. They respect April 14: Indian companies TRADE no borders, and epidemics do not and government entities place DEFICIT distinguish between races. We are orders for 15 million Personal now in the same boat. India relies on China for Protective Equipment (PPE) FOR INDIA I would like to focus my attention about 70% of its supply mainly on international cooperation kits, including gowns and to fight COVID-19. We can win this of APIs. And for some masks, and 1.5 million rapid battle by working together. well known drugs, such testing kits from China. China has taken responsibil- as paracetamol, amoxi- $56.77 ity and provided support to the cillin and ibuprofen, India April 16: Of 1,70,000 PPE kits international community. We have is almost 100% depen- that arrived in India on April BILLION worked closely with international dent on China. 5, about 50,000 failed quality AS OF FEB 2019 and regional organisations, espe- tests. cially WHO. We have sent many medical teams to other countries and provided huge amounts of medical supplies. What we have done is based on the belief of building a community of a shared future for mankind. China and India against the Japanese aggression will be greatly appreciated and health cooperation, and overcome are both ancient civilisations, with in China, and he sacrificed his life long remembered. And since the difficulties. AMB. SUN YUXI is the former populations accounting for more in China. We should carry forward outbreak of COVID-19 in India, we However, in a crisis like this, I feel Chinese Ambassador to than one-third of the world. So, I his spirit of internationalism and in China have shared the same very sorry to hear leaders or politi- India. He is a graduate of think that we have all the reasons to cooperate with this spirit in fighting feeling and have also extended a cians complaining, finger-pointing, or Beijing Foreign Studies strengthen cooperation. against the epidemic. helping hand. China has, in a timely playing the blame game. Such moves University and the London So far, China and India have been manner, shared experiences with will likely divide the international School of Economics. He maintaining close communication the Indian side in epidemic preven- community, lead to prejudice against was Ambassador of the and cooperation on the pandemic MUTUAL MEDICAL tion and treatment. Some Chinese specific groups, and ultimately hurt People’s Republic of China and control. The leaders of our ASSISTANCE provinces and cities have do- the shared interests of the world. At to Afghanistan (2002–2005), two countries have exchanged nated medical materials, and many present, I have learned that the Indian Italy (2008–2010) and Poland messages and telephone calls. I have noticed that at a critical Chinese companies and charities government has taken strict preven- (2010–2012) as well. He was We both believe in strengthening moment in China’s epidemic fight, have provided India with a large tion and control measures, which the spokesperson for the international cooperation. This the Indian government provided number of medical supplies, such has delivered positive results. India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminds me of the touching story medical supplies to China, and the as facial masks, protective suits, victory in epidemic control is of great of the People’s Republic of of Dr. Kotnis who went all the way Indian people have shown their gloves, and ventilators. I’m sure that significance against the global fight China and deputy director of to China during the Second World support in various ways. All this China will continue to jointly work against COVID-19. As a friend, I sin- its information department. War to support the war of resistance valuable support and assistance with India, strengthen medical and cerely wish India an early victory. p4 MAY, 2020 SYNERGIA FOUNDATION BLUEPRINT FOR A DECADE OF CHALLENGES AHEAD The Chinese annual government work report released at the Two sessions 2020 revealed plans for reviving the economy, alleviating poverty and fiscal reform top the agenda

-- the only electric car of the rich and BY LAURENCE BRAHM elite. Electric vehicles will become ACTION PLAN predominant if not mandatory in Founder Himalayan Consensus. China. This year’s NPC infrastructure Senior International Fellow, Center CHINA’S 2020 MILITARY BUDGET approvals include a blueprint of 1.2 of China and Globalization million ultra-high-voltage charging 1.27 TRILLION YUAN stations across the country. remier Li Keqiang (US$178 BILLION) delivered the annual BRIDGING THE GAP Government Work Re- 2014 $191.6 BILLION port at the Great Hall BETWEEN COASTAL of the People before 2015 $141 BILLION assembled delegates AND INTERIOR Pof the National People’s Congress 2016 $147 BILLION A large portion of this year’s report on May 22. It was a defining moment 2018 $175 BILLION addressed poverty alleviation, the in the wake of the most devastating focus of which will be development public health crisis that China has 2019 $177.5 BILLION of China’s western regions, setting had to face in its modern history. The an ambitious target to achieve coronavirus pandemic is an ongoing modernisation of all western crisis for which China must take spe- regions by 2035. China’s western cific remedial economic measures to “unlimited” quantitative easing or balancing between overly developed play a much bigger role. Local gov- development has been an ongo- address it. debt-buy-back liquidity now called coastal megalopolis cities and the ernments will be encouraged to raise ing three-decade process that has Unlike certain western countries “repo”, with most of the cash flood- lesser-developed rural landscape of money particularly through green involved layers of different types that have politicised coronavirus in ing into big tech that control social the interior. While past development bond issues. of investment from the earlier rail the context of social divide and rule media, and with it the minds of the leaned on heavy infrastructure and China is probably the largest and road infrastructure. This crucial before electoral cycles, China has people. This policy of singular focus industry, the new focus will be on green bond issuer in the world stage will witness the re-configuring focused entirely on controlling the on capital market health has proved corrective environmental technolo- today. Green bonds require that debt of ecological cities that can offer pandemic, preventing future waves, successful in maintaining the cur- gies and an overarching matrix shift raised be applied under specific the same if not even better, at least and addressing the problems left in rent caste system, keeping the rich in the energy grid from fossil fuels to conditions, such as grid conver- newer, facilities for health, environ- its wake, namely unemployment, extremely rich and making sure that green energy. sion to green energy sources or for ment and new technology develop- globalisation decoupling, and the the poor are opiated with addictive Toward achieving such an purposes of water safety among the ment within the areas that have need for remedial environmental social media and anger-inciting economic transformation from the many clean environment infrastruc- previously been designated as rural policies that can be effective in the entertainment. American democracy current stage that has emphasised ture needs. and agricultural. long term. is about divide and rule. In their industrial production and export Just to put this in perspective, Post the coronavirus crisis, eco- context it always works. trade as the focus, there will be a Guangdong, a coastal highly devel- nomic recovery may be understood On the other hand, Beijing’s eco- shift toward re-development of the SHIFT TO CORPO- oped manufacturing and technology in the context of either Chinese or nomic policy is concerned more with interior calling for infrastructure that RATE FINANCE province has an annual GDP of 10 tril- western medicinal approaches, the overall health of the economy. is smart, green and blue. Seven fields In addition, 600 of China’s listed lion yuan. By comparison the annual depending on which one you want This session of the NPC will approve have been identified as the focus: companies will serve the main GDP of western interior provinces to choose. a 1 trillion yuan bond issue spe- 5G infrastructure, ultra-high-voltage investors drawing upon capital such as Qinghai or Ningxia does not Western medicine does not cifically for COVID-19 control, while intercity high-speed railway systems, market resources. The very nature of even reach 1 trillion yuan. Through- adopt preventive medicine or con- pursuing prudent monetary policy urban rail transit, new energy vehicle financing for China’s own domestic out China’s four decades of reform siders the totality of one’s health and involving reductions in reserve ra- charging stations, big data centres, infrastructure investment is clearly and opening up, there has been a the effects of environment on overall tions and interest rate cuts together artificial intelligence, and industrial shifting away from policy lending massive migration of workers from social health. It rather narrowly with re-lending to increase M2 internet to enhance data collection, toward corporate finance. rural western provinces to coastal focuses on curing the endgame sick- broad money supply, while making exchange, and analysis to enhance The report focused on devel- cities looking for both opportunity ness, often when it is too late. lending to small- and medium-sized productivity efficiency. opments in technology, artificial and better quality of life, leaving the In Chinese traditional medicine, enterprises both more convenient “Ecological Civilisation” was re- intelligence, and big data. These interior largely gutted of productive the entire state of mind-body bal- and accessible. Everything is focused peated throughout the Government are key components in the massive talent. At the individual urban level, ance, environment, diet and outlook on the real economy, with skill train- Work Report, referring to China’s transition under way in China from there are only 17 cities that qualify are considered as integrated parts ing to enable more than 35 million overarching policy of sustainable de- fossil fuel reliance to green energy. as part of China’s “club” of cities with of a totality. Preventive medicine vocational jobs. velopment requiring massive energy Moreover, these technology sec- GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan. Twelve and the opening of blockages so shift from fossil fuels to green and tors are key in upgrading China’s of these cities are on the east coast that blood and positive energy can development of the green finance public health sector. Through- and only two in the west. flow freely prove key in preventing ‘NEW INFRASTRUC- and technology capacities to affect out the coronavirus crisis, new These western areas are the unhealthy situations and sickness. TURE’ CONCEPT such transition, including education technologies were applied proving regions where the highest poverty Maintaining a balance is the most and environmental awareness. the necessity of correctly applied levels have historically been concen- important consideration. This year’s report also set a frame- The emphasis on ecological technology to solving health care trated, largely due to the remoteness work for quality versus quantity in civilisation indicates that China’s challenges. of many areas. So in keeping with CHINESE PREVEN- overall life improvements. Where “new infrastructure” will be very the principles of Chinese tradi- past programmes have focused on different from the old fixed asset PUSH FOR GREEN tional medicine, balance must be TIVE MEDICINE fixed asset infrastructure invest- infrastructure investments that have prioritised between developed and ments to drive the economy and driven economic growth in the past. China has set the ambitious yet underdeveloped regions, economic In many ways these approaches are create new jobs, this year a fresh Rather than focusing on the hard realisable target of shifting the growth and environment together being reflected in the economic poli- concept is on the table called “new infrastructure of roads, rails, airports energy grid to 80% green by 2050. with public health. cies and economic stimulus of both infrastructure” to solve actual snags and new urban landscapes involving This energy transition will also seek This Government Work Report is Washington DC and Beijing. Methods in the economic system to keep massive steel and cement, the new to address blockages in transport especially significant as 2020 heralds adopted are almost divergent in arteries of supply and demand infrastructure will be more about through investment in high-speed the beginning of a decade that will nature. smoothly running and preventing smart transport, ecological restora- rail networks that are both intra probably go down in world history as The White House and the snags in the supply chain that can tion, social health and well-being and inter-city. Moreover, aggres- one of the most challenging in terms Federal Reserve have promised create economic distortion. --- smart, green and blue. sive promotion of electric vehicles of natural catastrophe and possibly “unlimited” quantitative easing in Following this year’s report, it The mechanism of financing will will witness a transition in the auto most turbulent in reconfiguring the order to prop up their market. Some is clear that China will be pursuing be different as well. The last grand industry to drastically reduce carbon global system from what has existed $3 trillion in debt-buy-back backed comprehensive, balanced economic stimulus programme responded to output. Auto industry insiders in since World War II to a new system dollars was thrown at the market in development by addressing all lev- global recession following the 2008 Beijing know that all of the major that will emerge in the years ahead. one surge before the end of March. els, sectors and geography together. American subprime-sparked finan- vehicle manufacturers are focused By eliminating poverty, China could Washington DC’s economic poli- Emphasis will be placed on “new cial crisis. At that time, China rolled on designing and producing the next very well become the only country cy is concerned with the buoyancy of infrastructure”, which can be defined out massive infrastructure projects generation of electric vehicles in- that actually achieves the United Na- the capital markets, not the overall as smart, green and blue. much of which were financed cluding some of the really big luxury tions 2030 Millennium goals. Chinese health of the economy. The focus is The policy will focus on the total through traditional bank lending. car brands present in the China mar- medicine is all about balance and to keep the elite enriched through health of the economy requiring a re- This time, the capital markets will ket today. It will go way beyond Tesla cultivating internal soft power. MAY, 2020 p5 SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

198 8 JANUARY 8 FEBRUARY 2ND WAVE JOB LOSS New Coronavirus 724 died from coronavirus China: 73 cases of coronavirus as on Loss of 5 million jobs, RECURRING identified as infection-associated pneumonia 28 May, with four in critical condition. 300 million rural migrant MUTATIONS cause of 34,878 were confirmed to have Previous stats 82,995 confirmed cases workers have been TO VIRUS pneumonia been infected 78,288 patients cured, 4,634 death stranded at home

TESTING REGIME

The lockdown was lifted in May after 76 days, and an ambitious testing regime was introduced in Wuhan after new cases emerged, raising fears of a second wave. On May 26, Wuhan stated that it tested nearly 7 million people in 12 days. China’s prompt response and efficient monitoring can be credit- ed with curtailing the spread of the virus, along with the willingness of citizens to adhere to protocol. China now has sent medical equip- ment and PPE all over the world to help other countries still working on slowing down their cases. While there have been issues raised about the quality of the PPE and that China could have hidden the exact number of cases, the effort put in by the doctors on the ground in controlling the spread of the virus cannot be negated. INFORMATION SHARING

Some databases offer informa- tion on COVID-19 through public- private partnerships, such as by Dawex, Parexel, and the EU’s ERAvsCorona Action Plan. But this kind of data-sharing is done only in certain circles, with no one govern- mental organisation having taken the lead. Patient-level COVID-19 data is also not publicly avail- DATA SHARING CRUCIAL able. The data available is said to “lack comprehensive information beyond typical registry resolu- tion”. Dr. Ye believed that there is a DURING A PANDEMIC need to create a unifying multina- tional COVID-19 electronic health record, which can be accessed by researchers globally. With lockdowns the world over being lifted gradually, it is important to have a com- The non-existence of this is not due to the absence of technology. mon pool of information for countries to prepare for the unpredictable road ahead One such example of a publicly- available, anonymous, electronic health record is the MIMIC-III (Medi- cal Information Mart for Intensive here is much to be THE SPREAD AND systems were used to keep a check Care III), present since 1996. It learnt from China on on the epidemic. Makeshift hospi- contains roughly 40,000 patients in how they managed CHINA’S RESPONSE tals that resembled those made for the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical the pandemic. This is the 2003 SARS outbreak in Caidian, Center (BIDMC). It offers insights what Dr. Ye highlight- The COVID-19 pandemic originated Wuhan, were built. China was also into a critical care cohort, allowing ed in his talk at the as a cluster of unidentifiable pneu- the first country to go into a full clinicians and computer scientists panelT hosted by Synergia Founda- monia cases in Wuhan, the capital lockdown -- on January 23 -- on its to address research questions and tion in cooperation with CCG. of Hubei province. As the number own and not on the advice of the build predictive models. (Quote) In an interview with of cases grew, the potential for an WHO. Much of what is known about Global Times, Dr. Ye said, “Having outbreak was discovered by the A lockdown of this scale had COVID-19 comes from how it has gone through all the hardships National Health Commission (NHC) never been seen before. Caught spread in different countries, based Dr Ye Baixin and eventually conquered the epi- in Beijing after sending experts to off-guard, China received help on which doctors make their as- is a doctor at Renmin Hospital demic, Wuhan doctors are like an Wuhan. On the same day, the au- internationally from countries like sumptions. Creating large-scale of Wuhan University. He is internationally recognised brand thorities notified the World Health Japan and Guinea, and even the COVID-19 Real World Evidence credited with founding four name to overseas health workers. Organisation. Bill Gates Foundation. (RWE) studies that take in data WeChat rooms dedicated We cannot only provide them with By the first week of January, Many cities limited the number from a variety of real-world sources to sharing the experience of experience, but also boost their the genetic sequence of the virus of people going out per household, — like patients being treated in the COVID-19 by Wuhan profes- confidence.” was published on an open-access with only one person permitted for hospital — could help accelerate sionals. Nearly 2,000 doc- China’s roadmap to recovery database. The Wuhan seafood purchasing necessities every 1 to the development of treatments in tors are in touch through his followed the following protocol market was closed down by Jiang- 3 days in February. Temperature a more patient-centric and patient- efforts, including 400 doctors -- the containment of spread and han District’s Health Agency and checks were made necessary and friendly way. in China and more than 600 disease action, good procedures Administration for Market Regula- commonplace at each entrance. The need for open-source from the United States. The for disease management, avoid- tion on January 1. On January 20, There was round-the-clock surveil- hardware and software that allows ‘Global health professionals on ing medical resource wastage (all the NHC set up a team to deal with lance through contact-tracing for national and sub-national COVID-19’ chat rooms created of which was free to the people in pneumonia caused by the coro- apps, CCTV usage, and check-in health systems to collect and share by Dr. Ye have witnessed great China), and using highly scientific navirus, which then went to other by doctors. What they learnt from live and updated data in a timely cooperation. With the help of technology. provinces and cities to supervise their battle with COVID was that manner, while being mindful of a team from Wuhan Univer- Its success in fighting the pan- the control of the epidemic. The even though they asked suspected privacy laws has never been more sity, the chatrooms now also demic makes the case for the need mainland also stepped up its cases to stay at home, the number topical. This would allow already include seminars and other to set up resources to allow shar- production of masks from 10 mil- of cases still increased, which then overburdened healthcare systems academic exchanges. ing of information across borders lion to 116 million daily. Delivery had to be controlled through com- around the world to quickly adjust between medical professionals. drones, AI, and facial recognition munity containment. in their fight against COVID-19. p6 MAY, 2020 SYNERGIA FOUNDATION A 73-YEAR-LONG INTRACTABLE BORDER DISPUTE An in-depth appraisal of the India-China standoff indicates that there’s more to the tensions than meets the eye

and sought refuge in India. The BY MONI CHANDI Government of India, not only gave CHINA VS INDIA political asylum to the Dalai Lama Retd Major General, Chief Strategy and the Tibetan refugees, but also Officer, Synergia Foundation permitted the Central Tibetan Ad- ministration (Tibetan government in exile) to be established in Dharam- as the internation- shala, Kangra district, Himachal al border between Pradesh. India and China In 2006, the PRC enlarged been delineated its territorial claim, including the and demarcated? whole State of Arunachal Pradesh (90,000 sq. km.), as South Tibet. There is a distinct difference The claim has little legitimacy and Hbetween delineation and demarca- no visible popularity with the local tion. The former relates to markings CHINA INDIA people. However, it was formally on a map, while the latter means 2,183,000 ACTIVE PERSONNEL 1,444,000 made and repeated periodically. marked on the ground. There is no $237,000,000,000 DEFENSE BUDGET (USD) $61,000,000,000 established international border be- Analysis: The Tibetan government 3,210 TOTAL AIRCRAFT 2,123 tween India and China. What exists, in exile receives funds from several and that too only in the perceptions 1,232 COMBAT AIRCRAFT 538 sources, including the U.S. govern- of the states concerned, is the Line 3,500 COMBAT TANKS 4,292 ment. For the PRC, the presence of Actual Control (LAC), established 33,000 ARMORED VEHICLES 8,686 of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan after the 1962 Indo-China war. The 2,650 ROCKET PROJECTORS 266 government in exile, in India, is a 3,488-km-long LAC, between India 74 SUBMARINES 16 grave provocation. It has, on multi- and the People’s Republic of China 220 COASTAL PATROL 139 ple occasions, accused the Tibetan (PRC), has neither been delineated government in exile of receiving nor demarcated. Both countries è Buddhism was transmitted from India to China in the 1st century CE. support from external sources and hold on to their own perceptions è plotting to separate Tibet from the of the alignment of the LAC. This The Indian epic Mahabharata (c. 5th century BCE) contains references to “China”. mainland. Tenzin Gyatso (now in situation was inherited from the è The dhyana master Buddhabhadra was the first abbot of Shaolin Monastery, who his 80s), in 2011 formally wrote to British, but even after 73 years of hailed from Southern India. the Assembly of Tibetan People Independence and the 1962 war, Deputies, requesting relief from all India and China have failed to solve è Bodhidharma, the founder of the Zen school of Buddhism in China, as a prince of temporal duties. Arunachal Pradesh this seemingly intractable problem. the Pallava dynasty. has very little historical or cultural connection with Tibet. Even the Analysis: After the 1962 war, è China is India’s largest trading partner Buddhist monastery in Tawang, which continues to taint relations Kameng district, is more associated between the two countries, official with Indian Buddhism than Tibetan India – China border talks began in perceptions of both countries and absence of a border settlement, September 10, 1959, Prime Minister Buddhism. 1981. The Joint Working Group was the fact that the establishment of and the demarcation, face-offs Jawaharlal Nehru made the follow- formed in 1989, and the Experts’ the border is still a work in progress. between troops in contact are likely ing statement: “It is an inhospitable Assessment More than 60 years Group created in 1993. However, The PTA comprises eight para- to continue. area and has not been under any have passed since the annexation of even after 22 rounds of border graphs, stresses the importance kind of administration. Nobody has Tibet by the PRC. Successive Indian talks, the last of which was held of peaceful and friendly consulta- Why has there been no political been present there. It is a territory, PMs have acknowledged the PRC’s in in 2019, there is little tions, and places controls on troop solution to the dispute so far? where not even a blade of grass sovereignty over Tibet. Most of the optimism for a resolution to the levels and activities, in proximity to India became independent on grows, about 17,000 feet high…” approximately 1,00,000 Tibetan vexed border dispute. Indian Prime the LAC. The CBM Treaty is a more August 15, 1947, and the PRC was To which, freedom fighter refugees in India, have absorbed Ministers Rajiv Gandhi in 1988, Nar- detailed document comprising formed after the Chinese Civil Mahavir Tyagi and then MP, pointing the Indian culture and show little in- asimha Rao in 1993 and Atal Bihari 12 articles. It contains a commit- War on October 1, 1949. Both the to his bald head famously replied: clination to return to Tibet. For the Vajpayee in 2003, had attempted to ment that neither side shall use or new governments inherited the “Nothing grows here either… present, there appears to be a tacit bridge the divide. Modi has visited threaten force nor seek unilateral unresolved border from previous should I cut it off and give it to quid pro quo. India’s acceptance the PRC more than any other leader military superiority. Article III places regimes. In hindsight, it is surprising somebody?” of one-China (Tibet) is conditional (nine times) and shares a special restrictions on the deployment of that both governments endorsed to China’s acceptance of one-India relationship with Chinese President troops and weapons in proximity to maps of their respective countries, Assessment: Tyagi’s diatribe is now (J&K). China’s deliberately planned Xi Jinping, which was demonstrated the LAC; Article IV places restrictions erroneously including common folklore. However, it also perhaps claim over Arunachal Pradesh by informal and personal meetings on the conduct of military exercises, territories. The bulk of the disputed caught India’s first and Oxford-edu- is perhaps designed to provide (Sabarmati: 2014; Wuhan: 2018 and and Article VI prohibits the use of territory was Aksai Chin, involving cated PM off-guard. No satisfactory strategic offset, to India’s claim over Mahabalipuram: 2019). weapons and explosives, within 2 38,000 sq. km. response was given to Tyagi, and Aksai Chin. km of the LAC. China had never accepted the his remark continues to impose Assessment: Despite repeated legality of the McMahon Line, in the caution on parliamentarians, who THE WAY FORWARD initiatives by Indian PMs, there is no Analysis: Kiran Rijiju, former Min- Eastern Sector. However, in 1960, dare to suggest an amendment Both Modi and Jinping are strong indication of a settlement on the ister of State for Home, reported in Chinese PM Zhou Enlai said China to India’s borders or a change to leaders who currently enjoy enor- horizon. Parliament that between 2010 and was prepared to accept the line as a India’s now accepted but perhaps mous political power. They have It appears that the border dis- 2014, there had been a total of 1,612 possible boundary, provided India erroneous map. Tyagi’s statement both demonstrated courage in pute has more complications than transgressions on the LAC. Most recognised China’s claim in the will remain an eloquent and pas- taking decisions and the charisma can be solved by bureaucracy and violations are not reported in the Western Sector, primarily referring sionate comparison, but is actually to carry detractors. A mutually leadership alone. media. While violations on the LAC to Aksai Chin. After the 1962 war, a case of mixed metaphors. Barren, acceptable solution to the border- are commonplace, there are also the offer was taken off the table. unoccupied, and inhospitable real dispute will require compromises In the absence of a recognised two to three incidents each year in- However, in June 1980, Deng Xiaop- estate cannot be compared to a by both nations, involving changes border, how is border manage- volving more serious confrontation. ing, as the paramount leader of the precious human head, even if it be to the maps of both countries. ment carried out? In April – May 2020, Chinese and PRC, renewed the offer with minor one without hair! This would promise harmony and The management of the India – Indian troops were involved in at modifications. cooperation between the two most China border is governed by the least two non-lethal but aggressive China’s Western Highway (now What is the Chinese perspective populous countries in the world. Peace & Tranquillity Agreement actions in Ladakh and Sikkim. called China National Highway 219), to the dispute? India should concede Aksai Chin to (PTA), 1993, and the Confidence linking Xinjiang to Lhasa, Tibet, was In 1959, the People’s Liberation China (already in their hands) while Building Measures (CBM) Treaty, Assessment Both the PTA and constructed from 1951 to 1957. It Army (PLA) took control of Tibet, China should concede Arunachal 1996. Further additions to this the CBM Treaty have been profes- was only in 1958 that India discov- suppressing the rebellion of the Pradesh to India (already in Indian framework have been progressively sionally drafted and are capable ered that 179 km of the alignment Tibetan people. Faced with grave hands). Once this political principle built-in, in 2005, 2012 and 2013. of sustaining peace along the LAC, passed through, India-claimed danger, the 14th Dalai Lama is accepted, it should be relatively These treaties accord recognition despite the absence of a mutually Aksai Chin. The matter was debated (Tenzin Gyatso) and his entourage easy to delineate and demarcate to the LAC, including the differing recognised border. However, in the in the Indian Parliament and on fled Tibet, crossed the Himalayas the LAC. MAY, 2020 p7 SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RESEARCH TEAM DISRUPTIONS IN SUPPLY CHAIN

t the ‘India and China: è Domestic and International Trade in China - Two Asian giants amidst a pandemic’ webinar, hosted by drop in February Synergia Founda- 56% tion in collaboration withA CCG (Center for China and è The United States, United Kingdom, Globalization), moderator Andy Mok and Europe - 26% in the beginning of (Senior Fellow, CCG) focused on April, and a continuing decline of the supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19. The speakers were Kevin Kang (Chief Economist, KPMG in late April. China), Jason LU (Vice-President, 17% KORRUN Group), Gina QIAO (Senior Vice-President and Chief Marketing è IATA requires cash infusion of Officer, Lenovo), and Gopi Hanu- manthappa (Managing Director of ThyssenKrupp). $200 bn The discussion centred around how supply chains could be strengthened. China has restarted most of è its industries and factories, along 90% with a percentage of flights. The Fortune 1000 companies with tier 2 suppliers in China affected number of new cases reported since April has been few compared to the thousands reported in Febru- ary, which is thanks to a rigorous è 75% regime of screening, testing, and companies reported global supply chain management disruptions quarantine. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) was 50.8 in April, above the average 50 that separates growth from contrac- tion in a survey of factory owners, which is a testament to increased SUPPLY CHAINS NEED TO morale across the economy. SLOW BUT SURE RECOVERY BE SMARTER, LEANER Dr. Kevin Kang stated that the Chi- nese economy, as per the economic data released for April, can be seen AND MULTINATIONAL to be slowly recovering in both the money market and industries. China is one of the biggest produc- ers in Asia, and strengthening its The pandemic has highlighted how industries were disrupted due to frozen supply chains. ties with the rest of Asia would be an advantage. Here’s what needs to change to ensure minimum damage in the future China is the largest energy- friendly market, which is why there’s a Tesla factory there. The country accounts for nearly half the sales of ation optimisation software. in India - 30% in PCs and 50% in years. While there is an improved no flexible supplier bases face. One new-energy vehicles globally. While these definitions do not tablets. This shows that while the trend for regional transportation, likely consequence of this pan- account for a pandemic, the need future is hard to predict, one must it is not the case for larger aircraft. demic is the further diversification, to shift integration to machines be in a position to act quickly and Consumer behaviour modification perhaps even with localisation, of STATE OF MUL- and inventories and using ad- be prepared. It calls for a more is the cause for this, even though supply chains. Manufacturing hubs vanced analytics stands out in this multinational approach to supply aerospace is already global and the such as Vietnam, Mexico, and India TINATIONAL situation. Different sectors are also chains and the flexibility to shift supply chains are fairly distributed. could benefit from such a shift. SUPPLY CHAINS bound to get affected differently, as operations, and the importance of Businesses now will perhaps learn COVID-19 has revealed the vul- can be seen in the IT vs aerospace globalisation. There is the diver- to manage this risk while hedging nerabilities of complex global sup- The key areas of supply chain comparison that arose during sification of labour, demand, and security and politics. Though gov- ply chains built on lean manufac- management today are cost con- the webinar. Gina Qiao, Senior supply created when parts of the ernment stimuli are likely to boost turing principles. This is true in the tainment, visibility risk, customer Vice-President and Chief Market- supply chain are spread around the liquidity, there is no telling about healthcare sector too, where there intimacy, and globalisation. ing Officer at Lenovo: Lenovo was globe. Qiao indicated that if we are the demand side of things. The are inherent risks with inventory In a 2010 report released by IBM initially affected by the lockdowns to build a strong economy, there is focus now is on “business efficiency and single-sourcing models driven after interactions with 400 senior the world over, but they managed the need to work together. There is and cost. The re-evaluation of what exclusively by cost control, which supply chain executives, the key to keep up with the demand and also the need for smarter technol- is essential in businesses reflects was seen in the case of protective finding was “to deal effectively with continue production in countries ogy for people working from home. changing consumer behaviour. equipment. risk and meet your business objec- where a lockdown hadn’t been an- In the next three years, 75% of Future rising industries in the From a technical perspective, tives, we believe supply chains must nounced yet. companies expect to have achieved short term could see heavy off-road the pandemic is likely to see digital become a lot smarter”, and to start digitalisation. Lenovo, in this equipment increasing, along with transformation initiatives for busi- building the vision immediately. scenario, is a technology-enabler as the emphasis on automation, and nesses across the globe. Technol- A smart supply chain is defined LENOVO’S well as a provider. the need for telecom and hardware ogy-led business models would be as one having three important As for aerospace, Gopi Hanu- space. more important than ever, which components: MANOEUVRES manthappa discussed how the would count in further strategic Instrumented: Data collection Lenovo has 33 manufacturing sites entire aviation sector had been hit planning for companies. There is networks that provide real-time through which they could navigate because there was no demand for SUPPLY CHAIN also a need to reduce dependency visibility will support supply chains; a change in supply and demand. its services. As an extension, allied on physical labour across transpor- pallets? will “report if they wind up When China first went into a lock- industries such as business travel, NAVIGATION tation, logistics, and warehousing, in the wrong place”. down, the firm’s factories in India (in hotels, bookings, and other service- FOR THE FUTURE which could be where AI comes in. Interconnected: System-to-system Puducherry and Chennai) stepped industry operations had also seen “It’s about how to navigate choppy integration up and down the supply up production. Later, when the losses. A Dun & Bradstreet report on supply waters now,” Mr. Hanumanthappa chain, not only to trading partners, lockdown was announced in India Roughly two months ago, com- chain effects showed that over 90 said. While there might not be but to machines and inventory in March, the factories that opened panies were sitting on a backlog of % of the Fortune 1000 companies much shrinking of global supply (shop floor to top floor). up slowly in China could take products that had to be supplied have tier 2 suppliers in China. The chains, there will be changes in Intelligent: To achieve better sup- over to keep up with the demand. to commercial aviation. Now they impact of China’s lockdown on how to leverage technology and ply chain decision-making through Lenovo also holds a massive market are looking at a downturn with manufacturing has highlighted the processes to get leaner and faster at advanced analytics and next-gener- share in PC and personal devices maybe no demand in the next three problem that supply chains with what businesses do. p8 MAY, 2020 SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

PRIVATE SECTOR Wang Huiyao President, Center for China and Globalization

RESPONSIBILITIES think we had a very excel- visas, have more airline con- lent discussion this after- nections - we should have noon. We really appreciate more close collaborations. IN A PANDEMIC Ambassador Rao and Am- Being the two most populous bassador Sun. It’s very posi- countries neighbouring each How does one shift the focus from profit-making to ethically tive, it’s very constructive, other, we have every reason to andI it’s very forward-looking. And collaborate and work together. we are backed up by so many As we said at the beginning, if sustaining businesses when a pandemic hits? distinguished panellists - from China and India combined, it how we can fight pandemics would be 1/3rd of the world’s together, share experiences, and population. SYNERGIA FOUNDATION KORRUN isn’t alone. London- how we can support each other. I don’t see any potential RESEARCH TEAM based boutique liquor brand The global value chain that we’re conflicts, basically, we’re a 58 Gin stopped making gin and in, where we are in the same situ- peace-loving country. There started making hand sanitizers. ation and can help each other. may be some historical n the webinar, two of the Vacuum-maker Dyson took an I would just like to say that misunderstanding, but I think main topics addressed were order of 10,000 ventilators from the China and India really have so now, with the economy and how supply chains could UK government. While the drastic many similarities and so many all the things going on, we be made stronger and how change in products did create cer- ways that we could collaborate have all the reason to work corporate responsibility could tain hurdles in sourcing materials, closely. Firstly as Ambassador together. If we really think help navigate a pandemic, navigating alternatives in the supply Sun said we have a long civilisa- about the two biggest giants thisI article highlights the thoughts chain ensures that this problem tion - India is a long civilisation in Asia we should really set shared on the latter. “Since [COVID-19] doesn’t last too long. There are and China has a long civilisation good examples of collabora- Responsible capitalism, where those who hesitate, though. The - we really have a long tradition tion. This webinar is a good companies seek to act quickly and happened so main concern with using other of working together. One of the example of how China and have a backup plan for a backup companies as manufacturers is that early Chinese returnees was an India’s businesses, public, aca- plan, now faces its biggest test rapidly, we initiated there could be large differences in Indian of the Tang Dynasty and demics, and think tanks can yet. Today’s CEOs are faced with our PPE and medical the manufacturing process. he brought back Buddhism from work together and is a good multiple choices and decisions in India. So we see a lot of cultural way to exchange. I hope that the face of the pandemic, ranging business units. We heritage as well. We have a lot of in the future we can continue from how to deal with losses in their said that we have to HOW DO similarities in terms of urbanisa- the dialogue. We should try business, handling the cash flow, COMPANIES tion, rural development, infra- to seek common ground and balancing the needs of investors, do more and have structure, telecommunication, minimise the difference. I customers, staff and suppliers - the to involve people DEAL WITH A and now particularly we have to think the economic dividend list goes on. Since no one saw CO- share with each other on public between the two countries VID turning into a pandemic, there more and utilise our PANDEMIC health fighting this coronavirus. will unleash more desire to are no firm solutions as to what strengths…since we As Wang Feng said, Indian collaborate for both countries, is the best way to deal with the Pandemic preparedness for one’s experts are actually really those we need each other. scenario. Naturally, it will be impos- have global facilities company can be only as good as leaders that are collaborating China has a lot of experi- sible to keep everyone happy. the experience, flexibility, knowl- with India. We have a TATA in ence gained from its dense not only in China but edge, and wisdom of the coworkers. China, we have a lot of Indian population. That experience also in Indonesia It would be even better if there was companies in China. There’s a can be exchanged and can SHIFTING GEARS the collective experience of all the huge potential. In the future, we benefit India, and India’s and India. We started companies in the world—if they should have more student ex- experience can benefit China. The focus of any company during to donate to were willing to share. changes. I understand there are I’m glad we had a very good a pandemic is (or should be) to Michael T. Osterholm, an Ameri- some Indians studying in China, discussion this afternoon. I protect their workforce and ensure governments. can infectious disease epidemiolo- there should also be more Chi- want to thank Ambassador Rao continuity of output. This has seen gist and director of the Center for nese studying in India. We should and Ambassador Sun, and all Jason Lu companies change, for the time be- Vice President, Infectious Disease Research and have more tourism. India is such the distinguished panellists. I ing, the products they produce, to KORRUN group Policy at the University of Minne- a nice, big, civilised, traditional want to thank my friend Tobby keep production going along with sota, states that “We see frightfully country with many historical sites Simon as a counterpart to creating necessary equipment for little private or public sharing of to be seen. China had 150 million co-organising this and my staff the pandemic. creative approaches or experiences outbound tourists before the for putting this together. It’s Jason Lu, VP of the KORRUN wrestling with tough preparedness coronavirus. So we hope more been a great exchange. And so group, a business travel company, issues. No one has assembled a tourists go to India and more many people have viewed this, did just the same. In the webinar, Mr workers, especially to Indonesia comprehensive collection of plans Indian tourists come to China. and we hope we have more to Lu spoke about how his company and India. Their factory in Ben- from companies—not trade asso- I think there are many ways we generate on this. So thank you contributed their services in mak- galuru, Karnataka, was also given ciations, other business groups, nor can work - we should simplify again for participating in this. ing masks to donate to healthcare clearance to operate due to this. the federal government.”

OTHER SPEAKERS AT THE WEBINAR

Sambratha Gopi Dr. Kevin KANG Gina QIAO WANG Feng Shetty Hanumanthappa Chief Economist, Senior Vice President, Editor-in-Chief of Chief Operating Managing KPMG Chief Strategy Officer FTChinese, Officer, Director, China and Chief Marketing Financial Times Synergia Foundation Thyssen Krupp Officer, Lenovo

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