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2 0 1 1 April June 2011

Foreign Policy in 32

Foreign Policy in Post-Conflict 's Global Dynamics Improving Indo-Pak Relations The Prospects for Indo-Pak Dialogue Foreign Relations and Identity Politics in Bangladesh Imperatives of Bangladesh's Foreign Policy Blasphemy, the Media, and Governor Taseer's Murder Recent Trends in Corruption in India The Monolithic State and Ethnicity in Sri Lanka

I The Governance Deficit in Kashmir (1947-90) s s u Addressing Public Reaction to 's Energy Crisis e :

3 2 Contents

Editor's Notes 77 The Monolithic State and Ethnicity in Sri Lanka Vineeth Mathoor i Foreign Policy in South Asia iv Comes to South Asia 84 The Governance Deficit in Kashmir (1947-90) Aijaz Ashraf Wani

9 Foreign Policy in Post-Conflict Sri Lanka 105 Addressing Public Reaction to Pakistan's John Gooneratne Energy Crisis Muhammad Asif

18 India's Global Dynamics 111 Book Review: The Sociology of Suicide Bombings Prakash Nanda P Radhakrishnan

29 Improving Indo-Pak Relations Documents Khalid Mahmood 116 India-Pakistan Relations: An Economist's Peek into the Future 38 The Prospects for Indo-Pak Dialogue Ijaz Nabi Satish Chandra 120 Food Price Increases in South Asia, National 47 Foreign Relations and Identity Politics in Bangladesh Responses and Regional Dimensions, Mohammad Sajjadur Rahman Executive Summary The World Bank 55 Imperatives of Bangladesh's Foreign Policy 127 Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia, South Asia Asian Development Bank 64 Blasphemy, the Media, and Governor Taseer's Murder Kiran Hassan

71 Recent Trends in Corruption in India Paranjoy Guha Thakurta

Editor: Imtiaz Alam Executive Editor: Khaled Ahmed Associate Editors: Bushra Sultana, Maheen Pracha Sub-Editor: Zaair Hussain Director Marketing: Imran Riaz Designed by: DESIGN 8

Editorial Board: Farida Nekzad (Afghanistan), Dr Imtiaz Ahmed (Bangladesh), Dr S. D. Muni (India), Yubaraj Ghimire (Nepal), Dr Hasan Askari-Rizvi (Pakistan), Dr Saman Kelegama (Sri Lanka) Publisher: Free Media Foundation Facilitator: South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA) Printer: Qaumi Press Editor’s Post: E-mail: [email protected] www.southasianmedia.net Editor's Notes

policy has become overwhelmed by military conflict, further complicated by the development of nuclear weapons and the illusion of 'military parity' they create. Here foreign policy takes on special significance even as it involves the interests of extra- regional states alarmed by the prospect of a nuclear conflict. Both countries need to stabilize the nuclear regime in South Asia for the sake of the world's largest Foreign Policy in South Asia concentration of human beings. The Indo-Pak conflictual relationship has held the entire region hostage. Futuristic oreign policy is often described as a state's pursuit of national interest in the programs of cooperation and co-dependency could not be carried forward because of the realm of international affairs. Since 'national interest' is nonpermanent and dark shadow of this bilateral maladjustment. Intense hostile concentration on only one often described as 'pseudo-theory' by some scholars, one expects foreign policy F neighbor has prevented Pakistan from concentrating on its other neighbors even though to change over time. However some aspects of it remain permanent as, for instance, in it desperately needs trade outlets. As the terrorist assault on Pakistan increases, it needs regard to policy about neighboring states. In South Asia, 'neighborhood' or contiguity to work against it in tandem with India and the other states, like Nepal. But because of plays a role in the formulation of state policy. persistent hostility, any approach to Nepal is seen as suspicious in India, while Pakistan On ground, this means that India will bestow special attention on its ties with all the looks askance at any linkages developed by India with Afghanistan. South Asian states, except Afghanistan, which will get only the strategic focus In foreign policy, 'state sovereignty' is allotted a special polemical space, but the truth is necessitated by circumstances. From the point of view of the other states found on that 'external' state sovereignty is a myth. However, to overcome fears of being 'unequal', India's periphery, contiguity demands special attention to relations with India with a the regional states created the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation lesser emphasis on relations with one another. In the case of Pakistan, because of (SAARC). Although its foremost concern in 1985 was clearly 'a meeting of the states on contiguity, special attention is bestowed on its relations with both India and the basis of equality' its deeper significance appears by the turn of the to relate to Afghanistan. Given this geographic determinant, it is no surprise that India dominates the creation of a regional bloc based on an integrated market where trade and the foreign policy of the states in its neighborhood. By the same token, India cultivates investment will flow without hindrance. The idea of economic co-dependency, now special interest in the states that surround it. mooted clearly at SAARC, will determine the future of foreign policy formulation in The nation-state in South Asia has so far conformed to the definition of nation-states South Asia. elsewhere in the world: (i) it responds to nationalism within, and its relations with its What we may be observing are the terminal manifestations of the foreign policy of the neighbors are colored by this internally binding principle; (ii) it guards its national nation-state. But as South Asia moves in the direction of a new collective identity in the identity by protecting it against 'intervention' from beyond its borders; (iii) it gives region, the conventional dispute-oriented formulations will fade away. Hostile special importance to the integrity of its borders and will therefore have 'border assessments of the intent of the neighbor – read India – will no longer dominate the disputes' whose resolution becomes a permanent part of its foreign policy; (iv) it will foreign policies of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. As the region trades more organize a national army under the rubric of national defense and will link its within itself – under a free trade regime - there will be persuasion to suppress the nationalism to the army in varying degrees; and (v) 'nationalism' will be a permanent negative aspects in the bilateral equations. Extra-regional relations, once based on ingredient in its foreign policy. hostile relations within the region, are however less threatening after the end of the Cold From this geographic paradigm, it becomes obvious that the burden of having an War. The world is more decidedly in favor of South Asia becoming an integrated effective regional foreign policy falls on India. It is not only a neighbor to almost all of the economic bloc. India's relations with are on an improved pragmatic footing and South Asian states but is also dominant in the region by reason of size and strength. All will have salutary effect on the Indo-Pak equation. As and engage its smaller neighbors, by the same token, must give priority to their relations with India. in their latest round of 'composite talks', the extra-regional equations will become less In some measure, the relations of South Asian states at the global level too will be threatening, especially the Indo-US equation. determined by their regional equations; in short, with their relations with India and vice 'Strategies of destabilization', practiced as part of foreign policy in the past, are giving versa. way. The free trade agreement between India and Sri Lanka has gradually become a The question of sovereign equality has always been a major issue in South Asian foreign settled reality and has allowed Sri Lanka to face up to its intra-state security challenges. policy. Given India's size, the smaller states tend to be 'self-conscious' about how they A similar change in the India-Bangladesh equation has become discernible, which are engaged with by the big neighbor. This obviously requires a very careful handling of means that India will no longer perceive Pakistan as 'intervening' in its north-eastern foreign policy by its experts in India. In the case of Indo-Pakistan relations, foreign i ii states through Bangladesh. A similar 'normalization' between India and Pakistan, begun tentatively by the prime ministers of the two countries during the 2011 ICC World Cup, will allay Pakistan's fears that India is 'destabilizing' it by 'intervening' in Balochistan from Afghanistan.

A number of vectors are converging in South Asia that presage a change in the paradigm Cricket Comes to South Asia of foreign policy based on nationalism: (i) The rise of the region as a fast growing group of economies not yet organized in a regional bloc; (ii) the intensification of intra-state he 10th International Cricket Council (ICC) World Cup that concluded in March conflict which tends to eclipse the importance of inter-state conflict in the formulation of in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, turned out to be an exclusively South Asian foreign policy; (iii) the rising need to exploit the synergetic benefits of 'connectivity' in affair with three regional teams qualifying for the semifinals out of four. In the the region, making South Asia an inward-looking region based on trade and investment; T end, after Pakistan lost to India, the final was between India and Sri Lanka, with India 4) the regional demand for energy which can only be met through a co-dependency of gas deservedly winning the Cup. The 10th ICC world competition in the game of cricket resources and extra-regional pipelines passing through neighboring territories; and 5) marked the coming of cricket to South Asia, on playing merit and with complete financial the rise of climatic challenges that threaten the region through degradation of viability. Cricket craze in the region is unmatched anywhere else in the world; nowhere environment, identifying the 'enemy' outside the region rather than inside it. else do four contiguous states play the game with such total emotional engagement of their populations. Can peace be achieved through the decline of the nation-state and its hostile foreign policy paradigm? In the 20th century, Europe, which saw the rise of the nation-state, India is the centre of world cricket now also because of international participation in its also acquiesced in its gradual obsolescence through economic co-dependency. In IPL 20-20 competitions arranged annually by the Board of Control for Cricket in India Southeast Asia, the establishment of ASEAN in 1963 began the journey of the regional (BCCI). Complete with its attractive financial packages, the Indian venue is a magnet for states in the same direction, ending in the 'destination' year of 2015 when ASEAN will be talent from all the playing nations. Countries that surround India are no less intensely an integrated regional market. In South Asia, the vision of SAARC has matured to a point engaged. Out of the four countries that play the game, three have already won the Cup, where a consensus among its economists demands that 'introverted' foreign policy give while Bangladesh can defeat any team on the day its players are playing to their optimum ground to 'extroverted' trade and investment co-dependency for the prosperity of its capacity. The rise of Bangladesh has surprised many since there was hardly any cricket population. there before 1971.

Pakistan which won the ICC cup in 1992 has been unlucky in 2011. It was prevented from co-hosting the latest competition. The World Cup was supposed to be co-hosted also by Pakistan, but in the wake of the 2009 attack on the Sri Lanka national cricket team in Lahore, the ICC was forced to strip Pakistan of its hosting rights. The headquarters of the organizing committee were originally to be situated in Lahore, but were shifted to Mumbai. Pakistan was supposed to hold 14 matches, including one semifinal. Eight of Pakistan's matches (including the semifinal) were awarded to India, four to Sri Lanka and two to Bangladesh which was co-hosting for the first time.

Cricket is played in South Asia with a lot of national emotion, which is why the game is so captivating off the field and full of tension in the field. The Olympic parallel with war, which the games were meant to offset through 'catharsis', was greatly in evidence, while the evil spirits in the shape of betting mafias played their role in the wings. And in the midst of all this, an act of high statesmanship on the part of India and Pakistan inspired hope for the dawning of a new era. Indian Prime Minister Dr invited his Pakistani counterpart Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani to view the semifinal match between India and Pakistan. Earlier, both teams had by turns defeated the world champion, Australia.

For Pakistan, losing the semifinal but winning the opportunity of normalizing relations iii iv with India turned out to be a good bargain. On objective analysis, India's was a better team which performed well on the day of the match. What Prime Minister Gilani won was the fund of goodwill needed to push forward the 'composite dialogue' Pakistan had In This Issue been canvassing with India after the low point reached in 2008 when Mumbai was The views expressed in this journal are solely those of the authors attacked by the terrorists. Not only was green light given to the talks by Dr Singh but his government indicated that it was open to the resumption of normal cricket ties including Foreign Policy in Post-Conflict Sri Lanka a tour of the Indian team to Pakistan if Pakistan could guarantee foolproof security. Dr John Gooneratne, a retired foreign and former associate director of the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies in Colombo, traces the history of Sri Lankan South Asian peace depends on the two big countries if they can learn to benefit from each foreign policy in the context of several decades of ethnic conflict. He focuses on the other's strong points. This has been realized among the regional economists and their oscillating relationship between Sri Lanka and India between 1983 and 2009, given consensus is now orchestrating the unofficial dialogue going on between India and the latter's alleged role in training and arming Tamil militant groups. Dr Gooneratne Pakistan. What is needed at this stage is the taking on board of the politicians who react also highlights the role of the Tamil diaspora in representing its interests abroad and to the popular sentiment and have a hand in shaping it. Both governments are awake to the importance of engaging with it through dialogue. Finally, he examines relations the advantages of peace and the opportunity of economic cooperation. At the forum of between Sri Lanka and two of its most important counterparts, the US and China. SAARC both have discussed the possibilities of intra-regional 'connectivity' that will allow South Asia to improve its outreach into the adjacent regions. Improving Indo-Pak India's Global Dynamics All neutral studies made into free trade between India and Pakistan conclude that it Relations Prakash Nanda, a New Delhi-based would be to the advantage of Pakistan. So far Pakistan has been holding back on a free Khalid Mahmood, a former journalist and author of trade area agreement with India that it has signed. Instead, it is content trading on the Pakistani ambassador, traces the Rediscovering Asia: Evolution of basis of a positive list of 2,000 items with all the disadvantages of restricted trade. India history of volatile relations between India's Look-East Policy, provides has paid heed to the international opinion asking India not to put conditions on the India and Pakistan, highlighting a comprehensive overview of resumption of 'composite talks'. Now that it has relented, international opinion will not only periods of turbulence and India's foreign relations with its swing back in favor of New Delhi; and any defiance on the part of Pakistan will simply intense mistrust between the two seven South Asian neighbors, lead to more international isolation than it can handle. countries, but also the gains of China, Southeast Asia, the back-channel diplomacy during European Union, the US, and While the two prime ministers were watching the semifinal at Mohali, interior 2004-07. He argues that, in the Russia. He identifies India's key secretaries of the two countries had concluded their talks, ending them on an optimistic Pakistani view, cooperation can trade and security concerns with note. One issue they wanted to resolve in the coming days was related to the visa regime only take place if the composite regard to each of the countries or between the two countries. An easy grant of visa is crucial to normalization of relations dialogue process is resumed from regions he looks at, and examines between states. It opens the door to people-to-people contact needed to break the where it was left in 2008 after the how India's foreign policy has stereotypes created on both sides to perpetuate hostilities. It also gives a fillip to Mumbai attacks, and emphasizes increasingly come to be shaped by economic activity through tourism which has almost dried up in Pakistan because of a that any way forward must take the country's desire to play a global poor state of law and order. Tough visa restrictions to achieve security are usually into account “the recognition that role in the “new international counterproductive because they end up blocking the movement of peaceful citizens terrorism is a common enemy.” economic order.” without preventing terrorists from crossing the border secretly. The Prospects for Indo-Pak Dialogue The dawning of a new era of peace in South Asia depends on the initiatives undertaken Satish Chandra, a former deputy national security advisor to the Indian government, by its largest member, India. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has begun in the right narrates from a typical official standpoint how India has so consistently pursued good direction despite political difficulties with his large coalition government and has neighborly relations with Pakistan, while the latter has always frustrated all such improved India's bilateral equation with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. He must also generous overtures because of its "inimical" mindset. Mr Chandra conveniently succeed with Pakistan because by doing so he will transform the region of South Asia absolves New Delhi of its share in keeping relations between the two countries in an into an economic sphere of new prosperity. adversarial mould. The "inimical" mindset represented by Pakistan that Mr Chandra brings into critical scrutiny should also have persuaded him toward critical self- reflection. The South Asian Journal notes the self-righteous tendency on both sides is inimical to peace between the twins of the subcontinent. v vi Foreign Relations and Identity Politics in Bangladesh The Monolithic State and The Governance Deficit in Mohammad Sajjadur Rahman, a lecturer at the Department of International Ethnicity in Sri Lanka Kashmir (1947-90) Relations at the University of Chittagong in Bangladesh, examines how changes Vineeth Mathoor, a research scholar Aijaz Ashraf Wani, an assistant within the nationalist discourse can influence foreign policy decisions. Discussing at the Centre for Historical Studies professor at the Department of Bangladesh's relations with the Muslim world during the first two decades of the at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Political Science at the University of country's independence, he shows how the nationalist vs. secularist debate in India, examines the rise of ethnicity Kashmir in Srinagar, traces the history Bangladesh impacted its foreign policy. He argues that, while economic interests were in Sri Lanka by locating the of the state of Jammu and Kashmir in also important factors, the ideological positions of successive ruling regimes played a sociohistorical origins of the terms of its mis-governance and the key role in shaping this transformation in external relations. problem. He argues that ethnic repercussions of this for the Kashmiri identity was constructed during the people. He points out the irony that colonial period and fostered along mis-governance has continued even Imperatives of Bangladesh's Foreign with postcolonial nation-building, after the installation of elected Policy implying that ethnic identity is not governments since 1947. Importantly, Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, a professor of international relations innate to Sri Lanka, but instead the he identifies the emergence of at the University of Dhaka in Bangladesh, identifies product of certain historical and militancy in Kashmir as a result of four aspects of foreign policy that have shaped spatial relations. continual mis-rule. Bangladesh's external relations since its emergence in 1971: the diplomacy of recognition, economic Addressing Public Book Review diplomacy, energy diplomacy, and cultural diplomacy. Reaction to The Sociology of He focuses on the country's relations with India, Pakistan, China, and the US, particularly in the context Pakistan's Energy Suicide Bombings of globalization, regional cooperation, the global Crisis Dr P Radhakrishnan, a former energy crisis, climate change, and the rise of Islamist Dr Muhammad Asif, a lecturer at professor of sociology at the Madras militancy. He recommends the establishment of the School of the Built and Institute of Development Studies, institutions geared specifically toward improving and Natural Environment at the reviews Riaz Hassan's book Life as informing Bangladeshi diplomacy. Glasgow Caledonian University in a Weapon: The Global Rise of the UK, discusses the Suicide Bombings, which accounts repercussions of Pakistan's for the alarming increase in suicide Blasphemy, the Media, and Governor Taseer's Murder energy crisis, which continues to bombings from a sociological Kiran Hassan, a doctoral candidate at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies cause increasing socioeconomic perspective. (University of London), analyzes the role played by the Pakistani media in damage to all sectors. Here, he Documents disseminating information (or the lack thereof) on the country's controversial focuses specifically on the public blasphemy law. She argues that the broadcast media in particular failed to highlight reaction to energy shortages and Food Price Increases in the potential for misuse of the law, thus contributing indirectly to the recent murder continuous load shedding, South Asia, National of former Punjab governor, Salmaan Taseer, who had spoken up in defense of a poor pointing out that the resulting Responses and Regional Christian woman indicted under the law. She focuses on specific television anchors social unrest could have serious Dimensions, Executive and compares their handling of the issue, concluding that a large section of the media consequences for the country. He Summary has failed to abide by the ethical standards it presumes to uphold. also identifies a number of measures that policymakers can Economic Trends and initiate to address this problem. Prospects in Developing Asia, South Asia

vii viii (Gooneratne 2009). The foreign policy ambit during this period also became more circumscribed and India-centric because of the role India began to play post-1983 in allegedly training and arming the Tamil militant groups that had sought refuge there. As the conflict dragged on, the West deferred to India on how to react to developments in Sri Lanka because it was seen as a conflict in India's neighborhood.

Foreign Policy in Post-Conflict Sri Lanka The emphasis of Sri Lanka's foreign policy was now geared largely to a fire-fighting John Gooneratne exercise to battle against charges of human rights violations at UN forums, and Western n May 2009, the Sri Lankan armed forces succeeded in defeating the Liberation concerns over the conduct of the war against the LTTE. This gave a heavy human rights Tigers of Talim Eelam (LTTE). There was a huge sense of relief in the country at the coloration to the Sri Lankan case, and less emphasis to the secessionist goals of the Ithought that the damage and destruction wrought by the LTTE over a roughly 30- armed groups that the Government of Sri Lanka was fighting against. year period of military confrontation was finally at an end. Politics and events peaked with the signing of the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement of July But things are not so simple. Was Sri Lanka now in a post-conflict or a post-war 1987. This agreement sought primarily to put in place measures to address some of the situation? These are not mere semantic games—they have a far deeper interpretation. security concerns that India had with countries from whom Sri Lanka had sought Those who saw Sri Lanka's predicament solely as an antiterrorism issue considered the military support, such as the US, China, Pakistan, and Israel. The agreement also set out country to be at a post-conflict stage; those who felt that there were issues that gave rise measures to meet some of the political demands of the Tamil militant groups for more to the armed conflict, such as the lingering “national question,” described it as a post- self-government. This was the basis for subsequent legislation, which provided for the war stage. setting up of provincial councils in Sri Lanka. Because of the way the ethnic conflict had turned out, it was India who could either help reach a resolution to the ethnic conflict or This difference in angles of view is not mutually exclusive. Political life is not always well- prevent its resolution. defined or clear cut. The post-May 2009 situation in Sri Lanka shares facets of both points of view. Keeping in mind such nuances, we will keep to the more commonly used During the period of conflict, there was increasing external interest in Sri Lanka because label of “post-conflict.” of the effects that such a military conflict might have on the region and beyond. Sri Lanka also began to sound out third parties to assist in resolving the conflict. An attempt by In the short span of a little over 60 years of Sri Lanka's independent existence (since President Chandrika Kumaratunga to involve a monitoring mission during the 1948), issues of equal treatment of those who comprise the state surfaced within just negotiations in 1994/95 was aborted, but in 2000, she initiated the third-party role of eight years (from 1956). Over the next 27 years (1956-1983), efforts were made to resolve Norway in attempts to talk to the LTTE. Although this did not go far, it prepared the the question politically. But politics doomed such efforts, and the situation morphed ground for Norway's formal involvement as a facilitator in the implementation of the into an armed conflict that lasted the next 26 years (1983-2009). From another Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) that was signed between the Sri Lankan government and the perspective, for 54 of its 62 years of independent existence, Sri Lanka has been trying to LTTE in February 2002. answer the question, has it become a “nation state” or a “national state” (Ayoob 1995, 24)? The CFA and the subsequent peace process involving talks with the LTTE brought a significant supportive response from Western countries. Two donor Post-World War II, the world has now moved past the classical model of foreign policy, conferences—November 2002 in Oslo and June 2003 in Tokyo—saw Western countries whereby foreign offices communicated with each other and only with each other. Now, and Japan coming forth with pledges of assistance. These could not be utilized for other foreign policy has, in a sense, gone postmodern. It covers the gamut of interstate reasons connected to the lack of progress in the talks. This period also saw a large relations— interactions at state-to-state level and at people-to-people level. It is not just number of foreign institutes, foundations, and nongovernment organizations about matters of war and peace or security. Foreign policy now involves culture, climate participating in programs in Sri Lanka to support the peace process. However, as the and environment, health and pandemics, and natural disasters, etc. peace process showed little or no results, local politics opposing the continued talks with the LTTE started to gather greater salience. The period of “jaw-jaw” and “war-war” Nearly three decades of armed conflict from the early 1980s saw attempts to solve the India's position toward Sri Lanka began to change from the 1990s. With the conflict through negotiations in 1989/90, 1994/95, and 2001/08, all of which were assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE in 1991, and changes ultimately unfruitful. in India's economic and foreign policies in the 1990s as well as its new worldview, India In the mid-1980s, as the internal situation started to become confrontational, Sri Lanka adopted a more cooperative attitude toward Sri Lanka and its efforts to defeat the LTTE. entered a kind of foreign policy hibernation compared to its earlier active engagement Among the major countries with which Sri Lanka enjoyed a steady and close

9 10 relationship, i.e., Pakistan and China, the government was able to steer a steadier international conditions had changed. course. Assistance from Pakistan and China was critical in supplying the needed military hardware without the inhibitions that India had. India supplied “nonlethal” equipment The Tamil diaspora A significant development over the 30-year period—which gathered momentum after (because of its electoral sensitivities toward Tamil Nadu) and provided important naval the anti-Tamil pogrom of 1983—was the very large number of Tamils who sought refuge intelligence on the LTTE's sea activities. overseas in Canada, the UK, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, France, the Netherlands, The presidential elections of November 2005 saw elected president. the US, Italy, Malaysia, Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, Sweden, and India. From With his coalition government showing a strong Sinhala sentiment in its composition, inchoate beginnings, they have now become the Tamil diaspora, which is now a very and the general feeling that the nonfunctioning CFA was only to the advantage of the effective lobby group in its respective host countries. One manifestation of its ability to LTTE, the government's position began to change, and the need for a more forceful bring crowds out on to the streets was seen when it demonstrated in several capitals military tack gained ground. Three rather forced attempts at talks (February 2006 in against the Sri Lankan government in the last days of the military campaign against the Geneva, June 2006 in Oslo, and October 2006 in Geneva again) showed that the LTTE in April/May 2009. The effective electoral power of the Tamil diaspora was also usefulness of talks was at an end, and the CFA had become nonfunctional. When the evident when it was able to persuade the British and French foreign ministers to visit Sri LTTE closed the sluice gates of an irrigation canal in Mavil Aru in July 2006, which Lanka to advocate a pause in the fighting. stopped the water supply to a large rice-growing area, the Sri Lankan government The Tamil diaspora is now a well-coordinated body in organizing activities against the responded with a military move to clear the area of the LTTE. This was followed by the Sri Lankan government. After the defeat of the LTTE in May 2009, there has been a clearing of the Eastern Province of the LTTE's presence, and thereafter the Northern further spurt in improving its organizing ability. Bodies such as the Transnational Province, culminating in the defeat of the LTTE in May 2009. Government of Tamil Eelam with branch country working groups have been formed. In the international arena, especially in the West, there were several unexpected The Global Tamil Forum has been set up in London, with branches in other countries. reactions to the military turn of developments in Sri Lanka. While noting the benefits of The Tamil diaspora in the UK has been able to use the electoral pressure of its numbers the LTTE's defeat, Western countries began to highlight the human rights abuses to good effect. There is an All Party Parliamentary Group for Tamils in the British allegedly perpetrated by the two sides in the latter stages of the campaign, perhaps even parliament. In the US, the Tamils have formed Tamils against Genocide (TAG), a group amounting to war crimes, and calling for an independent international investigation. strong on the legal activities they initiate. The diaspora in other countries has similar These demands began to be highlighted in relations between these countries and Sri groupings such as the Canadian Tamil Congress and the Norwegian Council of Eelam Lanka, to the exclusion of other areas of mutual interest. Tamils. A more comprehensive picture is given by the International Crisis Group (2010).

As the war continued, its economic costs began to mount. With Western countries taking The following activities provide an indication of the Tamil diaspora's strength: a critical attitude toward Sri Lanka, bilateral assistance from these countries started to On 17 January 2011, two Tamil diaspora groups—the Swiss Council of Eelam Tamils and slow down. Considering the influence these countries have on institutions like the World TAG—filed with the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court a request to initiate Bank and other lending institutions, Sri Lanka had to turn to other sources and war crime investigations, leading to the issuance of a warrant of arrest of dual countries. Some of the newer sources that came to Sri Lanka's support from 2006 were Australian-Sri Lankan national Dr Palitha Kohona, who is presently Sri Lanka's Libya and . Some of the economic benefits that Sri Lanka enjoyed with the European permanent representative to the UN in New York. Union (EU), such as the GSP-plus granted after the December 2004 tsunami that struck Sri Lanka, were terminated when the two sides could not negotiate on the human rights In January 2011, three Sri Lankan Tamils filed a case in a Washington court alleging that conditionalities attached. President Rajapaksa, as supreme commander of the forces, was responsible for cases of torture and extrajudicial killings. They have demanded USD30 million in damages from The military defeat of the LTTE in May 2009 changed the country's political atmosphere him. Among the petitioners, who are affiliated with TAG, is the father of a 20-year-old overnight. Gradually, the political processes that had been nonfunctional in the north student who, along with four friends, was allegedly murdered by the Special Task Force and east began to be restored. Provincial council elections were held in the Eastern in January 2006 in Trincomalee. Another case cited was the killing of 17 local aid Province in May 2008, and presidential and general elections held in the Northern workers from the Paris-based organization Action against Hunger in Muttur (eastern Sri Province in 2010 without the earlier tension witnessed. Provincial council elections are Lanka) the same year. The petitioner, the wife of one of the deceased, claims that expected to be held soon for the Northern Province. government troops murdered the workers. The last petitioner claimed that four family Post-conflict challenges members were killed during shelling by the Sri Lankan navy in Mullaitivu in May 2009, With the war over, it was not simply a case of getting back to a period and style of 30 years just days before the civil war ended. earlier, before the conflict in Sri Lanka had entered a military phase. Both domestic and

11 12 When President Rajapaksa was scheduled to address the Oxford Union on 2 December Ocean connecting Europe and the Middle East to China and the rest 2010, the talk was called off by the union because Tamil protest groups posed a security of Asia. The cannot afford to 'lose' Sri Lanka …. The challenge to the venue. Tamil diaspora groups had also organized protests at Heathrow Obama administration is currently weighing a new strategy for Airport on the president's arrival. There was also some uncertainty as to whether a war relations with Sri Lanka [sic]” (US Senate Committee 2009). crimes case would be brought against a member of the president's security staff and, hence, the president's visit had to be cut short. The fact that the US does not seem to think that much progress has been made is reaffirmed in a subsequent US Senate resolution (US Senate Committee 2011), which In a recent interview with the French journalist Veronique Queffelec of Entreprendre, focuses on the need for “accountability” of actions during the conflict. It says that US-Sri President Rajapaksa stated that some Western embassies had refused visas to ministers Lanka relations would be enhanced by “progress on domestic and international of his government (Sunday Leader, 13 March 2011). There have also been a few investigations into reports of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and other human instances where some Western capitals have not agreed to the nomination of retired rights violations during the conflict” and calls for an “independent international military officers as ambassadors to those countries. Sri Lanka faces a number of difficult accountability mechanism to look into reports of war crimes, crimes against humanity, areas in its relations with some of these countries. and other human rights violations” (US Senate Committee 2011). In a way, there is a sharpening of the US position on these matters. The US The country most outspoken about its position has been the US, whose views have been Post-May 2009, interaction between the US and Sri Lanka has been primarily on clearly set out in a US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations report (2009). On the accountability issues over reports of war crimes in the last days of the war against the post-war/post-conflict context, the US is very clear: LTTE and Sri Lanka's human rights record. Any interest or concern the US might have over the “rising” presence of China in Sri Lanka has been outsourced to India, with The war in Sri Lanka may be over, but the underlying conflict still whom the US has a common position on this matter. simmers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Sri Lanka is not a post- conflict environment. While the fighting between the Government In an insightful speech, H. M. G. S. Palihakkara, a former foreign secretary, identifies and the LTTE may have ended, the reasons for the political and social two of the above areas as some of the challenges that Sri Lankan foreign policy: the conflict (that also gave rise to youth militancy and armed clash in the challenge of accountability and the challenge of human rights. “In journalistic 1970s and 1980s) will take time to address. Those root causes must shorthand,” he says, “the debate on accountability of compliance with international be tackled soon and with a sense of urgency to prevent the country Humanitarian Law has been reduced to the 'war crimes issue' [sic].” Mr Palihakkara also from backsliding (US Senate Committee 2009). feels that Sri Lanka should not be afraid to talk about such issues with “all countries especially with those who may disagree with us on certain issues.” He adds On the state of the US-Sri Lanka bilateral relationship, the report is uncharacteristically epigrammatically: “Diplomacy is all about dealing with people with whom you disagree frank: “This growing rift in U.S.-Sri Lanka relations can be seen in Colombo's or agree to disagree.” On human rights, he says: “Sri Lanka need not be defensive on realignment toward non-Western countries, who offer an alternative model of human rights. Human rights problems exist in all countries. Addressing human rights development that places greater value on security over freedoms [sic].” Amplifying this concerns is good in itself …. If we continue to argue that human rights problems are not view, the report adds: “As Western countries became increasingly critical of the Sri unique to us and therefore no one should talk about that, it is simply not prudent Lankan Government's handling of the war and human rights record, the Rajapaksa diplomacy” (Palihakkara 2011). leadership cultivated ties with such countries as Burma, China, Iran, and Libya.” It also states that: “U.S. assistance to Sri Lanka, although delivered in grants and not loans, has India attracted criticism from the Rajapaksa Government for its emphasis on political reform In international relations, distance lends enchantment and proximity has the opposite [sic]” (US Senate Committee 2009). effect. Sri Lanka and India is a good example of this. It is a psycho-geopolitical condition guaranteed to produce neuroses on both sides. The report recognizes the strategic value of Sri Lanka, which needs to be taken into account, without abandoning human rights concerns: A veteran journalist, Shekar Gupta, was the first Indian journalist to break the story in 1985 of the existence of military training camps for Sri Lankan Tamil militant groups in This strategic drift will have consequences for U.S. interests in the different parts of India. In a recent address given in Sri Lanka, Gupta says that, while the region. Along with our legitimate humanitarian and political war was on, “everything about Sri Lanka was viewed through the prism of the war, concerns, U.S. policymakers have tended to underestimate Sri because the war meant Tamil interests and complications in the South of India. The war Lanka's geostrategic importance for American interests. Sri Lanka is also changed a lot in India [sic].” Now that the war is over, he points out that “the located at the nexus of crucial maritime trading routes in the Indian paradigm on which the relationship between the two countries had been built for over 30

13 14 years is no more.” He notes that “it is very tempting to be intellectually lazy, especially not a balancing or hedging exercise but one of having good political and economic when the formulas, formulations, statements are in place and when a policy remains in a relations with all three countries. paradigm for an extensive period of time. The challenge before both Indian and Sri Lankan policy-makers is to move away from the earlier paradigm positions” (Daily Both the EU and US are important trading partners, especially in the garment trade. News, 6 October 2010). However, perhaps because of the war with the LTTE, Sri Lanka did not give sufficient importance to the trade aspect in its interactions with the EU, treating it rather Gupta mentions that “India's coalition politics has shaped up in such a way that a ruling cavalierly.1 As the sole superpower, the US was treated more respectfully but, again from coalition cannot be set up (in New Delhi) unless the party that won the election in Tamil Sri Lanka's point of view, it was engaged in a basic struggle to maintain the territorial Nadu is part of that coalition.” Sri Lanka knows the effects of this well. The additional integrity of the country. Perhaps being more understanding of the circumstances that Sri point he makes is that “India has a greater challenge in being concerned about the Lanka faced, the US did not apply sanctions or withdraw benefits as the EU did. These influence of a country bigger (China?) than India” (Daily News 2010). are two areas to which Sri Lanka needs to pay more attention in its diplomacy.

China The propensity for misunderstanding is alive and kicking in Indo-Sri Lanka relations. In a study published in 2010, De Alwis notes: The dispute over the recent killing of two Indian fishermen in the Palk Strait (Subramaniam 2011), and the Sri Lankan prime minister's statement in the parliament It is clear that a military resolution of the ethnic conflict would not on 9 March 2011 on the presence of LTTE training camps in Tamil Nadu (UK Parliament have been possible without the pivotal power play that ensued 2011), which the Indian external affairs ministry spokesperson promptly and between two regional giants—the quiet dominance of China and the “categorically” denied on 10 March (Ministry of External Affairs 2011) is evidence of this. 'hands off' approach of India, particularly during the past three years. Chinese aid, de-linked from human rights conditionalities, All these challenges are ones in which the different states involved have had earlier included military hardware which was crucially buttressed by experience of. Hence, it is a matter of adjusting bilateral relations to meet national extensive loans and investments in infrastructural projects that interests. considerably plumped dwindling foreign currency reserves, and significant diplomatic support at international fora (De Alwis 2010). In a way, dealing with the Tamil diaspora is the most difficult challenge. This is a new element with which Sri Lanka has to deal, considering the influence the diaspora has in This concisely highlights the role that China has played in supporting Sri Lanka in its host countries (as explained earlier). The Tamil diaspora comprises people who have different areas. Economic relations with China increased significantly during this fled their home country for a variety of reasons, but they are not a monolithic group. period, with loans for major projects such as the construction of a new harbor in Their attitudes toward their home country differ—from trying to see how fences can be Hambantota. This was to become of great interest to India and the US in terms of its mended to those utterly opposed to Sri Lanka. In trying to talk to them, an honest wider strategic implications. China's activities in the Indian Ocean are watched with approach is necessary. We have seen how they are sometimes made to look like a threat much suspicion by India, especially Chinese assistance to the port at Hambantota. Both or an enemy. This is not an unknown stance, and is one that states sometimes take to India and China are developing their economic and military capabilities. What this consolidate their domestic support. There are no set ways to resolve this, but all efforts means for Sri Lanka is that it must be able to cope with Indian suspicion (by allowing an need to be made. After all, they are part of the “national question” that remains to be Indian consulate in Hambantota where there is not a single Indian citizen in sight), and settled. remind India that the Hambantota project was first offered to India.

Conclusion Dr John Gooneratne is a retired foreign service officer (1961-93) and former associate The foreign policy challenges that Sri Lanka faces can be put in the following way. Sri director of the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies in Colombo (1993-99). He is the Lanka will have to learn to skillfully manage two trilateral relationships (Sri author of A decade of confrontation: Sri Lanka and India in the 1980s (2000) and Lanka/India/China and Sri Lanka/India/Pakistan), and greatly improve on three Negotiating with the Tigers (LTTE) (2002-2005) (2007). bilateral relationships (Sri Lanka/India, Sri Lanka/US, and Sri Lanka/EU). The most difficult foreign policy challenge for Sri Lanka will be to learn how to deal with the Tamil Endnote 1. In April 2009, the Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt was unable to join David Milliband, the diaspora. UK foreign secretary, and Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister on their visit to Sri Of the countries that were significantly involved with Sri Lanka during the period of the Lanka, on the grounds that he did not have a visa to visit the country. conflict, Pakistan and China have turned out to be all-weather friends. Their ability to References understand the predicament Sri Lanka faced, and help when needed, was crucial. Both lAyoob, Mohammed. 1995. The Third World security predicament: State making, regional have their own set of issues with India and manage them differently. For Sri Lanka, it is conflict, and the international system. Colorado: Lynne Rienner.

15 16 lDe Alwis, Malathi. 2010. The 'China factor' in post-war Sri Lanka. Inter-Asia Cultural Studies 11 (3). lGooneratne, John. 2009. The ethnic conflict and its impact on Sri Lanka's foreign policy in the last 60 years. In Sri Lanka: 60 years of independence and beyond, ed. Ana Pararajasingham, 518-34. Chennai: Centre for Just Peace and Democracy Switzerland. lIndia Ministry of External Affairs. 2011. Spokesperson categorically denies existence of LTTE in India. 10 March. http://meaindia.nic.in/mystart.php?id=530317377. India's Global Dynamics lInternational Crisis Group. 2010. The Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora after the LTTE. Asia Report Prakash Nanda No. 186. Colombo/Brussels: International Crisis Group. lPalihakkara, H. M. G. S. 2011. The post-conflict foreign policy challenges for Sri Lanka. hen one talks of India's interactions with the outside world, three factors are Twenty-first J. E. Jayasuriya Memorial Lecture at the J. E. Jayasuriya Memorial Foundation, worth keeping in mind. First, notwithstanding all its proclamations of Colombo, Sri Lanka. nonalignment, the new international economic order, and sovereign l W Subramaniam, T. S. 2011. Tide of protest. Frontline 28 (6): 129-134. equality of nations in official announcements, ideology no longer plays an important l Parliament. 2011. Hansard Parliamentary Debates, Official Report 198 (2): role in Indian foreign policy. India has become “realist” and “pragmatist” in pursuing its 184-185. national goals, the core of them being to preserve the country's pluralistic democracy, lUS Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. 2009. Sri Lanka: Recharting U.S. th st protect its territorial unity and integrity, and sustain and expand its unprecedented strategy after the war. 111 Cong., 1 sess. l ———. 2011. Expressing support for internal rebuilding, resettlement, and reconciliation economic and industrial growth in recent years by fully utilizing the opportunities of within Sri Lanka that are necessary to ensure a lasting peace. 112th Cong., 1st sess. S. Res. 84. economic reforms and globalization. Second, while India, a committed status-quoist country with no territorial ambitions, has always aspired to play a global role, it is only recently that the world has started taking the country seriously. Unlike in the past, India is now recognized and, more importantly, accepted as a major world power by other world powers. India has “transformed” to emerge as one of the world's leading economies with a vast “young” working force (the demographic dividend), a responsible nuclear weapon power with demonstrated scientific and technological competence, and a stable democracy. These are not mean achievements. In fact, at an average growth rate of at least 7.5 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) per year to achieve a tenfold increase in per capita income in the next 30 years, India is about to join the ranks of the developed countries.

Third, dynamic overseas Indians and people of Indian origin have distinguished themselves abroad, particularly in leading industrialized and militarily powerful countries, on the wide canvas of human endeavor. It would not be out of place to recognize the special role played by the Indian diaspora in influencing the emergence of modern India. In fact, if the American perception of India has changed of late, it has been mainly due to the ever-growing influence of Indian-Americans in the US polity and society. The same is the case in Europe and Australasia.

India and South Asia It is against this background that one needs to analyze Indian foreign policy. For a country that happens to be the home of every sixth person on the planet, the challenges are enormous. So also are the opportunities, if one takes into account India's unique geographical position, ancient history, huge natural resources, democracy, and culture and traditions. The basic idea is to secure a global environment that is conducive and, if possible, supportive of India's developmental aspirations. Here lies the importance of a stable neighborhood. That a prosperous and stable India needs to be at peace with itself and its neighbors does not need to be emphasized, for a troubled neighborhood not only limits India's global ambitions but also jeopardizes its internal security.

17 18 If one goes by the official proclamations, India wants to play a stabilizing role in the leaderships have obviously failed in dealing with this challenge, and it is highly unlikely region. It claims that the Indian economy with its rapid growth and the impact this that they will behave otherwise in the foreseeable future, unless of course there is exerts beyond its borders is fast becoming an anchoring element in the region. Indian popular pressure from the people. That can only be built if there is free movement of officials have articulated a policy in the neighborhood that stresses the advantage of people and ideas within the region by overcoming the obstacles of national boundaries. building networks of interconnectivity, trade, and investment, so that prosperity can be shared and the region can benefit from India's rapid economic growth. India says that it India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan With this broad regional background, we can now examine India's interactions with its wants to create an economic environment with its neighbors so that all can work neighbors. Relations with Pakistan have been extremely complicated and merit special together to fulfill the common objectives of economic development. The key phrase that treatment. Only this much can be said: there are sharp differences in perception between has been used in this context is “mutually beneficial relationship.” India and Pakistan on how to move forward. For Pakistan, Kashmir is the core issue to be India and its seven neighbors comprise the South Asian Association of Regional settled whereas India thinks that it is more important to see a stable Pakistan acting as a Cooperation (SAARC). India says that it is conscious of the common destiny of South bulwark against terrorism and extremism. Asia, especially when dealing with issues such as food security, health, poverty India supports the prolonged presence of US soldiers in Afghanistan to fight terrorism alleviation, climate change, disaster management, women's empowerment, and and bring stability to the country. Indian officials candidly say that India has a direct economic development. It claims that it has undertaken major policy initiatives in its interest in Afghanistan, not because it treats the country as a theater of rivalry with relations with other SAARC members. These include unilateral gestures such as the Pakistan, but because of the growing fusion of terrorist groups that operate from within facility of duty-free access to the Indian market for imports from Bangladesh, Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan and their activities in India. The country's official position is Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. India has also put forward proposals multilaterally within the that developments in Afghanistan over the past few years have amply demonstrated that framework of SAARC where it has assumed asymmetric responsibilities. However, peace, security, and prosperity in today's world are indivisible, and that the SAARC inter-regional trade still remains well below its potential. While there has been a international community in Afghanistan must therefore stay the course. Afghanistan positive change in the attitude of some participating countries in areas such as holds added significance for India as the former is a gateway to energy-rich Central agriculture, science and technology, and the environment, seen overall, greater Asian states such as Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. However, India's Afghan policy has integration in South Asia remains a distant goal. one distinct feature: instead of playing any military role in the country, it wants to win If SAARC has not lived up to its potential, it is essentially because there are political over Afghans by participating in their economic construction and nation building. India suspicions of one another, particularly between India, the region's largest and most would like to see a peaceful, democratic, and pluralistic Afghanistan. powerful country, and some of its neighbors such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Indian assistance to Afghanistan amounting to over USD1.3 billion has helped build Bangladesh. The countries' political leaderships have not been able to resolve important vital civil infrastructure and develop human resources and capacity in the areas of bilateral issues such as terrorism, religious fundamentalism, and territorial disputes. education, health, agriculture, and rural development, etc. Its development partnership, Deep-rooted prejudices dominate the domestic politics of the SAARC countries. India which has received the wide appreciation of the Afghan people, has been guided has a point when it says that the “anti-India” card is a potent and most convenient primarily by the needs of the Afghan government and people (a BBC-guided opinion poll domestic issue for its neighbors' political leaders. Besides, religion, which is not an issue in Afghanistan recently established that India is the most popular country among in comparable economic arrangements elsewhere—consider the European Union (EU), Afghans). In January 2009, India completed the construction of the Zaranj-Delaram North American Free Trade Agreement, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Association of Highway in southwest Afghanistan near the Iranian border; it is building Afghanistan's South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)—has played a divisive role in South Asia, despite the new parliament building set for completion by 2011; it is constructing the Salma Dam fact that South Asia's religions have coexisted peacefully for centuries. power project in Herat province; it has trained Afghan police officers, diplomats, and As Rajiv Sikri, a former Indian diplomat, explains, “In South Asia, neither religion nor civil servants; and it has provided support in the areas of health, education, race nor language constitutes a basis for developing a unique national identity. On the transportation, power, and telecommunications. other hand, there is a commonality of dress, food habits, marriage and social customs According to Indian officials, there are currently about 4,000 Indian workers and and, most importantly, the way of thinking of the South Asian people, regardless of security personnel engaged in different relief and reconstruction projects in religion. The South Asian obsession with cricket reflects a common culture. Popular Afghanistan. Since 2006, following increased incidents of kidnappings and attacks, films, music, songs and dance also transcend political frontiers.” The point here is that India has sent the country's mountain-trained paramilitary force tasked with guarding the region has many commonalities; in fact, more commonalities than differences. The its border with China, to guard its workers; there are about 500 Indian police personnel challenge, therefore, is to reconcile and harmonize the region's common cultural currently deployed in Afghanistan. heritage while preserving its separate modern political identities. The political

19 20 However, India's growing activities in Afghanistan have not gone well with Pakistan. India constituted 80 percent of its total imports, and exports to India constituted 94 After India opened consulates in Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, and Kandahar, percent of its total exports. India and Bhutan are responsive to each other's security Pakistan charged that these consulates provided cover for Indian intelligence agencies concerns and cooperate closely on border management. Bhutan's democratic transition, to covert operations against Pakistan as well as foment separatism in Pakistan's which began with the first elections in 2008, is progressing well and in this India has Balochistan province. Pakistan believes that India is trying to encircle it through shared its experiences as a democracy with it through regular visits and exchanges of Afghanistan. On the other hand, this Pakistani antipathy is apt to convince India that the political leaders and parliamentarians. frequent attacks on its personnel engaged in developmental activities in Afghanistan are being caused by the Pakistani intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). India and Bangladesh Indo-Bangladesh relations have improved considerably of late. The January 2010 visit Neutral experts support India's engagement in Afghanistan but recommend a three-way of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was highly successful: while India relationship among India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Their suggestion is that committed to assisting Bangladesh in its developmental efforts in line with their Afghanistan must reassert a neutral policy of pursuing strong relations with both India priorities and extended an unprecedented USD1 billion line of credit to Bangladesh, the and Pakistan. latter pledged to ensure that its territory is not used for anti-India activities. In fact, but India and Nepal for the genuine cooperation of Bangladesh, India would not have been able to control India seems to be deeply concerned over the prevailing inability of Nepalese political anti-secessionist activities in Assam by the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA): leaders to draft a democratic constitution acceptable to all. Over the centuries, India has many top ULFA leaders operating in Bangladesh have been apprehended. Still, there are shared with Nepal an open border of around 1,750 km, guaranteed subsequently by the some challenges to be overcome in Indo-Bangladesh relations. These include reviving Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950. Issues of security cooperation on the open India's old infrastructural links with Bangladesh as well as addressing more difficult border, tackling common threats such as fake currency and arms smuggling, and issues such as water sharing and land boundary demarcation in an atmosphere of criminal elements that operate in the border areas taking advantage of the open border understanding and trust. There is also the huge factor of illegal immigration from are serious concerns for India. In the post-monarchy phase, the Maoists have occupied Bangladesh into India. But what is reassuring is that the two countries seem to be the central space in the Nepalese polity and their animosity toward India and proximity genuinely addressing these outstanding issues through serious and meaningful with China are well known. India has thus become a very important factor in Nepal's negotiations. political discourse. Anti-India elements have grown quite strong of late. Their complaints have ranged from “India's economic exploitation of Nepal” to unresolved India and Sri Lanka As far as Indo-Sri Lankan relations are concerned, ties have stabilized after the cessation boundaries to controversial India-aided development projects. At the same time, of the Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka. India has committed assistance worth nearly however, India does have a strong constituency in Nepal, given the special and unique USD1.5 billion toward the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the northern and eastern relationship rooted in their shared heritage, civilization, and customs. Moreover, India parts of Sri Lanka that were ravaged by the conflict. India's position is that that it is time is Nepal's largest trading partner, and the largest source of foreign investment and to convert the cessation of hostilities in Sri Lanka into a durable peace where there could tourism. be genuine reconciliation between all the communities in Sri Lanka, inclusive of the In the author's view, it is high time India reconsider its attitude toward Nepal. If the Tamil-speaking minority. In many senses, India is Sri Lanka's closest neighbor. India is dominant view in Nepal opposes the 1950 treaty that legitimizes India's special role in now Sri Lanka's largest trading partner. The momentum generated by the India-Sri Nepal, the best thing would be to abrogate the treaty unilaterally. Let Nepal emerge as a Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISLFTA) has continued to boost the sustained and rapid normal country without any special treatment from India. Let there be no open border. rise in bilateral trade turnover over the years. The overall trade turnover has grown five Nepal, as a landlocked country, should be guaranteed transit points (for the export and times since the ISLFTA came into force. import of goods and commodities) as permissible under international law. Let the It is worth emphasizing that two major factors influencing India's relations with Sri system that allows each other's nationals to work uninhibited in either country be done Lanka have been security and the shared ethnicity of Tamils living in southern India and away with. Let the millions of Nepalese, including Gurkha soldiers, working in India be in northern and eastern Sri Lanka. India badly burnt its fingers while trying to play a repatriated to their country. mediatory role in Sri Lanka's prolonged civil war. It was in this role, manifested in the India and Bhutan 1987 accord between the two countries, that India had the unpleasant experience of Of all its neighbors, India has the greatest trust and mutual understanding with Bhutan. sending a peacekeeping force to Sri Lanka. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Bilateral interaction today encompasses almost all areas of importance to both leading the Tamil separatist cause was so irked that it subsequently assassinated Prime countries, such as hydropower, transport, communications, infrastructure, industry, Minister Rajiv Gandhi, the co-author of that accord along with the late Sri Lankan information technology, agriculture, health, culture, and education. India continues to President J. R. Jayawardene. But even in this post-LTTE phase, the treatment of ethnic be Bhutan's largest trading and development partner. In 2009, Bhutan's imports from Tamils continues to be a sensitive issue in India's Tamil Nadu, one of its key southern

21 22 provinces. Moreover, from the security point of view, India, which has traditionally been interfering perilously in India's internal affairs by questioning Kashmir's status; it opposed the military use of Sri Lankan ports or broadcasting facilities by outside powers, recently introduced the practice of a separate stapled sheet in Indian passports while has not been comfortable of late with Colombo's increasing intimacy with China in issuing visas to Kashmiris. It also denied a visa to an Indian general because he had developing economic and military ties (buying Chinese arms and ammunition directly served in Kashmir. Fourth, China is far from returning the Indian gesture during the or through Pakistan). Finally, India has not been able to work out creative and 1950s of backing not only its ordinary membership of the United Nations (UN) but also innovative solutions to the problems facing fishermen of both countries who stray into permanent membership of the UN Security Council, which was offered to India by each other's waters. Western countries. Unlike the other four permanent members—the US, Russia, France, and the UK—China refuses to noticeably support India's legitimate claim of being a India and the Maldives permanent member. In wake of the terrorist attacks in November 2008 in Mumbai, the importance of the Maldives, a small island country located to the south of India in the Indian Ocean, has Despite the much talked about vibrancy of Indo-China economic ties, some anomalies risen sharply for India. As it is, the two countries have a long history of ethnic, remain. First, the balance of trade has been against India to the tune of nearly USD20 commercial, and cultural relations, and India was among the first to recognize the billion. Second, their trading relationship is mostly uncomplementary, with India Maldives as an independent nation in 1965. It is also committed to the consolidation of essentially exporting precious raw materials in general and iron ore in particular and the Maldives's transition to a democratic government three years ago. India's defense China selling finished products. This is despite the fact that the raw materials that China and security cooperation with the Maldives has been strengthened and high-level imports from India are abundantly available in that country but are being saved as interaction has ensured that India continues to play a prominent role in the latter's strategic reserves. Third, the imbalance has been further compounded by the increasing developmental and economic activities. dumping of Chinese goods in the Indian market, so much so that India is now flooded by Diwali items and idols of Hindu gods and goddesses, all made in China. Conversely, India and China China is India's largest neighbor, with who India has fought a war and lost. The situation however, the Chinese authorities place many hurdles in the way of quality Indian continues to be fluid with the vexed boundary issue and the presence of His Holiness the products (in the information technology, pharmaceutical, and food processing sectors) Dalai Lama, Tibet's topmost spiritual leader, in India. At the same time, the reality is that entering the market, even though China is not self-sufficient in these and imports them India and China have worked hard over the last two decades to deepen dialogue and from other markets. Yet, it would like India to sign a free trade agreement (FTA) between bilateral relations in a number of fields. Peace and tranquility have prevailed in the Indo- the two countries. China border areas, despite the unsettled boundary question. India's trade with China is Finally, while China, thanks to its USD3 trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves, is growing faster than that with any other country. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan investing hugely all over the world, particularly in developing countries, it is not inclined Singh recently said that, as two major Asian powers, there is space for both China and to do so in India. Its foreign direct investment (FDI) in India has been a miniscule India to play their legitimate role in the emerging global order, implying thus that there USD52 million. This is in sharp contrast to a reasonable USD879 million that India will not only be both competition and cooperation but also a stable dynamic equilibrium invested in China between 2004/05 and 2010. A particular mention in this regard is that can be maintained within the larger matrix of dialogue and diplomacy. But the noteworthy. Indian businesspersons, who import a significant amount of power problem for India is that China has not demonstrated what foreign secretary Nirupama equipment from China, have been expecting it to manufacture such equipment through Rao recently referred to as “sensitivity to India's core interests,” although on global FDI into India, particularly after Reliance Power recently inked one of the largest global issues, India and China have several areas where cooperation has been import deals for USD8.3 billion with the Shanghai Electric Power Company. However, possible—ranging from World Trade Organization (WTO) trade matters, environment, Chinese investments in India in local power equipment manufacturing and setting up of and energy security. research and development and after-sale service facilities are yet to take off in any What are these core Indian interests? Although Rao has not identified them, the sizeable manner. following can be inferred. First, despite many rounds of negotiation, a border settlement India and Southeast Asia acceptable to both the countries remains elusive. Here, China's stance is becoming India's ambitious “Look East” policy has already made it an integral part of the geo- tougher. The agreed principle in 2005 that the settled population in the disputed border economic landscape of Southeast and East Asia. Apart from a boundary that stretches areas will not be disturbed in any eventual solution has been negated by China, which over more than 1,640 km and borders four northeastern states of India, there is a large now claims Tawang, the holy Buddhist city in Arunachal Pradesh, as its own. population of Indian origin in Myanmar. Indonesia, in a sense, is one of India's immediate neighbors if the distance from the Andaman and Nicobar islands is taken into Second, China continues to encircle India by developing establishments and consideration. The “Look East” policy, articulated in 1992, has enabled India over the infrastructures in all India's neighboring countries (Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh, last two decades to integrate its geo-economic space with Southeast Asia. Originally an Nepal, and Pakistan), which has strong military implications. Third, of late, China has

23 24 economic concept, the “Look East” policy, to quote Dr S. D. Muni, has now reached its Euros100 billion in bilateral trade by 2013 from the present figure of Euros60 billion. third phase. India is now expected to play a geopolitical and military role in the Asia- India looks toward the EU for new partnerships in knowledge industries, i.e., Pacific region because of the region's disturbed strategic balance due to China's rise and information technology, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure the perception of US constraints to playing its traditional role of ensuring stability. development, etc., and the transfer of technologies, particularly environment-friendly technologies and improved medical innovation. India also wants to see freer movement As it is, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) has provided India a useful model for such of its professionals and businesspersons in the EU market. India and the EU have cooperation based on dialogue and consensus in diverse areas such as counter- maintained regular interaction at various levels, which has included 11 summit meetings terrorism, transnational crimes, maritime security, disaster relief, pandemics, and since 2000. The India-EU Joint Action Plan, which was adopted in 2005 and reviewed in nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. India's participation in events such as the 2008, continues to be a template for cooperation between India and the EU. East Asia Summit has enhanced its role in the region, which in turn influences its global role today. India and the US When one talks about India's expanding links with the developed world, the most Under the “Look East” policy, India now supports the evolution of an open, transparent, important development has been the significant transformation of India's relationship inclusive, and balanced security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region. The rationale is with the US. Undeniably, the post-Cold War geopolitical environment, the shift in the that this will involve partnership and cooperation among all stakeholders working center of gravity of global opportunities and challenges to Asia, and the growing together in recognition of the fact that the inherent heterogeneity of the region will not challenges of terrorism and nonproliferation have created new opportunities for allow any top-down approach or domination by a single country. As Nirupama Rao has strategic engagement with the US. It is often argued, and rightly perhaps, that no said elsewhere, “All countries have an equal stake in promoting maritime security and in American government can any longer afford to ignore the presence of the 2.7 million- defending the 'Global Commons' by strict implementation of universally accepted strong Indian-American community in the US whose growing affluence and political principles of international law, allowing freedom of navigation and unimpeded strength has developed into a force for closer and stronger ties between their adopted commerce and peaceful settlement of maritime territorial disputes.” This explains the country and their nation of origin. participation for the first time of Indian Defense Minister A. K. Antony in the ARF's “ADMM + 8” (ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting + the US, Russia, China, India, Japan, It is also argued that a booming economy in India could help the revival of the American Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea) meeting, which was held in Hanoi on 12-13 business, not the other way around. This is particularly true in the case of the American October 2010. This has added a new dimension to international efforts to evolve military industrial complex. In March 2009, the Obama administration cleared the cooperative security architecture in the region. USD2.1 billion sale of eight P-8 Poseidon (maritime reconnaissance aircraft) to India, the largest military deal between the two countries so far. During President Obama's Finally, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for about one-third of India's trade. India visit, a bigger contract worth USD3 billion was facilitated, under which India will buy 10 signed its first multilateral trade agreement in the form of the India-ASEAN FTA on 13 C-17 Globemaster-III giant strategic airlift aircrafts. American companies are also August 2009 in Bangkok. The East Asia region, including ASEAN, is India's largest contending strongly to secure the Indian order for 126 multi-role fighter aircraft. As it is, trading partner with two-way trade between India and ASEAN touching USD44 billion the US is now increasingly cornering a major chunk of the lucrative Indian defense in 2009/10 (Indian exports were worth USD18 billion and imports worth USD26 market, particularly in the missile and aviation sectors. This is significant, given the fact billion). Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has announced a target of bilateral trade of that the Indian defense market is estimated to reach a worth of USD150 billion over the USD70 billion by 2012, which can be achieved despite the fragile global economic next 10 years. recovery. It is against this background that one needs to view a number important milestones India and Europe achieved during the last year: (i) the completion of steps by the two governments to ASEAN is not the only region with which India has cemented institutionalized regional implement their civil nuclear energy cooperation agreement; (ii) President Obama's ties. The case of India's increasing interactions with the EU is another interesting story. announcement of US support for India's permanent membership of a reformed UN Not only does India have friendly ties with leading European countries such as the UK, Security Council; (iii) the US's decision to ease its export controls for India; (iv) the France, and Germany, it has also phenomenally expanded activities in this vital part of announcement of US support for India's full membership of the four multilateral export the world through the EU. In fact, the EU is India's largest trading partner, its biggest control regimes (the Australia Group, Wassenaar Arrangement, Nuclear Supplier source of FDI, an important source of technology, and home to a large and influential Group, and Missile Technology Control Regime); (v) expanded strategy consultation, Indian diaspora. India has concluded ten rounds of negotiation on a broad-based trade including the East Asia Dialogue; (vi) the Counter-terrorism Cooperation Initiative and investment agreement, and issues of concern for both sides have been identified. signed in July 2010; (vii) a new homeland security dialogue; (viii) a memorandum of India is keen for a successful and balanced outcome of the negotiations. The early understanding (MoU) for cooperation in agriculture and food security in March 2010; conclusion of this agreement is supposed to facilitate India's stated goal of achieving

25 26 (ix) the launch of a financial and economic partnership in April 2010; (x) an MoU for by not hesitating to transfer the so-called “dual-use technology” on a range of sensitive cooperation in the Global Center for Nuclear Energy Partnership being established by areas, such as reprocessing technology, joint thorium fuel cycle nuclear power projects, India; (xi) a number of new initiatives in the clean energy sector; and (xii) the launch of a and fast neutron reactors. Similarly, no country other than Russia has collaborated with new international partnership for democracy and developments during President India in its several space technology-based cooperation projects. Obama's visit to India in November 2010. All this, however, does not mean that there are no hiccups in Indo-Russian ties. The two All this is not to suggest that Indo-US relations are free from irritants. For instance, the countries have not yet come to terms with the new situation where private players and US would like India to sign several pending agreements to facilitate the sale of American organizations dominate economic contours in the two countries, and where they have to defense equipment, but India would prefer to move cautiously, precisely because of the deal with each other directly without government intervention. The result is that not strategic nature of the agreements, which will cover communications and information many Indian businesspersons are sure of their returns on investment in and trade with security, geospatial cooperation, and logistics sharing. It is also significant to note that, Russia. Even in military sales, the Russians have yet to reestablish their Soviet-days' despite all the hype, the popularity of the US leadership has fallen to its lowest point reliability in not only the timely of products but also with commitments of after- since 2008 in India, where the decisions of the Obama administration to hike visa fees services and spare parts. for professionals and outsourcing have grabbed headlines. Approval ratings for the US leadership has dropped by 13 percent—from 31 percent in 2008 to 18 percent in 2010, However, these hiccups pale into insignificance against the broad strategic framework. according to the latest Gallup poll. Incidentally, the approval ratings for the American The fundamental reality is that, although Russia may have lost its position as a super leadership in India and Pakistan are among the lowest in the 18 Asian countries where power in Cold War equations, it is still a big power if one goes by any possible definition the Gallup survey was recently conducted. The point that emerges, therefore, is that of the elements that constitute power. It constitutes the largest landmass as a single India and the US are two independent democracies at different stages of economic country and strategically abuts Central Asia, China, and Iran, an area of political, development and facing varying circumstances. Divergence in their approaches on some security, and economic interest to India. Russia is endowed with enormous natural issues is inevitable. But what can be said without doubt is that, despite this divergence, resources, technological capacities, and trade potential. Above all, it has a highly the two countries will not lose sight of the broad, long-term strategic goals of their talented reservoir of human capital. It is still the most important military power in the budding relationship. world after the US. Most significantly, Russia, perhaps, gives higher priority to India in its foreign policy and strategic calculations than the US or other power centers of the India and Russia world, their acknowledgment of India's rising importance notwithstanding. When one talks of India's broad strategic interactions with the outside world, its all- weather relations with Russia can never be ignored. While this is not to belittle growing Prakash Nanda is editor of Geopolitics, a magazine on Indian defense, security, and Indo-US ties, the reality is that, of all the P-5 countries (the US, UK, France, China, and diplomacy. A Distinguished Fellow of the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Russia, all of which are permanent members of the UN Security Council), it is Russia that Conflict Studies, he has authored four major books on Indian foreign policy, including shares most of India's global vision and concerns. Rediscovering Asia: Evolution of India's Look-East Policy. He has also been a National Fellow at the Indian Council of Historical Research. Russia provides India around 70 percent of its defense needs. Importantly, this defense cooperation is not exactly restricted to a buyer-seller relationship; it includes joint design, research and development, joint production, training, and service-to-service contact. Russia shares its most sensitive and newest developments in technology with India, something that the US is reluctant to do. The Brahmos missile system is a shining example of this type of collaboration. Presently, several similar joint development projects in the areas of cutting edge and frontier technology are being pursued. Besides, Russia has so far maintained its policy of not providing India's adversary China (or for that matter Pakistan) the same weapon system it supplies to India.

Some critics point out that, in today's arms bazaar, Russia is not exactly a great market, given the comparatively poor technology associated with its weapons. But then, no other nation would be likely to fulfill Indian requirements as the Russians do, and no one else would be willing to lease their nuclear submarines to the . Even notwithstanding the much hyped 2008 civil Indo-US nuclear deal, it is Russia rather than the US that has proved to be a better partner in augmenting India's nuclear power

27 28 flexible position on disputes with India. This is now threatened by India's civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the US and its ambitious plans for various defense systems, including ballistic missiles. Discriminatory policies on strategic export control regimes by various countries undermine the goals of nonproliferation and strategic stability in South Asia; these need to be addressed. Improving Indo-Pak Relations Khalid Mahmood Kashmiris have done most of the fighting Before 1989, India and Pakistan fought over Kashmir. Since then, the Kashmiris have akistan's relations with India are burdened with suspicion and mistrust, and done most of the fighting and, as a result, have suffered huge causalities. Pakistani pose a serious challenge to peace and stability in South Asia. At the heart of this support to the insurgents and their activities may have stopped after 9/11 but the Pmistrust lie unresolved disputes, including Kashmir, which not only adversely struggle in Kashmir continues with nearly 90,000 Kashmiris having been killed. Given affect regional peace and security but also hinder economic development and prevent the abuse of human rights as detailed by international human rights organizations, the the two countries from realizing their full potential. situation in Kashmir remains troubled. The summer of 2010 saw the biggest protest against Indian control over Kashmir since the early 1990s. “If there is cooperation between Pakistan and India and not conflict, vast opportunities will open up for trade, travel and development that will create prosperity in both Looking back over the years, it is noteworthy that, starting from the Simla Agreement in countries,” said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who also noted in a statement to the 1972, various governments in Pakistan and India have taken steps to create peaceful Lok Sabha in July 2009 that “it is impossible for any Government in India to work conditions in South Asia for the resolution of the Kashmir dispute during their towards full normalization of relations with Pakistan unless the Government of Pakistan respective tenures. This was reflected in the Lahore Declaration of 21 February 1999, the fulfils in letter and spirit its commitment not to allow its territory to be used in any joint press statement of 6 January 2004, and the joint statement of 18 April 2005. There manner for terrorist activities against India.” is no doubt that the major political parties in Pakistan and India support a negotiated settlement of the Kashmir issue. In the Pakistani view, for such cooperation to take place, composite dialogue needs to be resumed from where it was left in 2008 after the Mumbai attacks (26 November). On 10 Period of turbulence February 2011, the two countries announced that they had agreed to resume dialogue on The period between 1999 and 2002 witnessed a high level of tension between India and all issues; a revival of the composite dialogue process was agreed while a new agenda Pakistan due to a number of factors, including among others, the Kargil crisis (May-July article on humanitarian affairs was added. The two countries' foreign ministers will 1999), the inconclusive Agra Summit (July 2001), the attack on the Indian parliament meet in July 2011 in New Delhi, prior to which, meetings on all outstanding issues (December 2001), and the mobilization of a million troops on the border, which was including Jammu and Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, and water will take place. The first called off by India after ten months in October 2002.

meeting of the series will be on counter-terrorism, including progress on the trial of Progress in the three-track peace process those accused of the Mumbai attacks. The resumption of this dialogue will be critical in The positive development of relations in 2003 took place after Prime Minister Vajpayee Pakistan's efforts to control and eradicate extremism and terrorism. Pakistan's concerns extended a hand of friendship to Pakistan and a large number of confidence-building regarding India's growing footprints in Afghanistan and its covert support to militant measures (CBMs) were announced by both sides. This prepared the two countries well insurgents in Balochistan also need to be addressed in the dialogue. for Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit to Pakistan in January 2004 to attend the 12th SAARC summit during which he held talks with President Musharraf. The two leaders agreed to India and Pakistan have been in conflict over the Kashmir issue since 1947. Following resume talks with an understanding reflected in their joint statement of 6 January 2004. the failure to resolve the issue peacefully, we have seen a troubled history of wars and The Indian prime minister said that “in order to take forward and sustain the dialogue proxy wars, mobilization, and coercive diplomacy by both countries. All this has proved process, violence, hostility and terrorism must be prevented.” The Pakistani president to be a zero-sum game. reassured his counterpart that he would not permit any territory under Pakistan's The nuclear tests conducted by Pakistan in 1998 in response to the Indian tests were due control to be used to support terrorism in any manner, and emphasized that a sustained to a regional asymmetry in conventional arms and were based on the argument of and productive dialogue addressing all issues would lead to positive results. The minimum deterrence and self-defense. This has proved to be a source of regional statement also expressed the two leaders' confidence that “the resumption of the stability and is seen in Pakistan as having equalized relations with India since wars are composite dialogue will lead to peaceful settlement of all bilateral issues including not worth fighting when two countries have nuclear weapons. Jammu and Kashmir, to the satisfaction of both sides.”

Initially, this provided a sense of security to the people of Pakistan in adopting a more The composite dialogue thus commenced in February 2004, and a three-track process

29 30 was started that was meant to transform the hostile relations between the two countries. The two sides agreed that there would be two units covering the entire area of the former Both tabled various proposals for working toward the normalization of relations. These state of Jammu and Kashmir, comprising the areas presently controlled by Pakistan and steps culminated in the initiation of composite dialogue to settle all outstanding issues, India, respectively. This will protect the Pakistani position that the Northern Areas (now including Jammu and Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, back-channel diplomacy, and an renamed Gilgit-Baltistan) are nonnegotiable. Ladakh is important to India for similar increase in people-to-people contact. reasons.

Back-channel discussions between the two countries began to take concrete shape with a The two sides also agreed that tariff and nontariff barriers between the two units in the growing focus on outstanding issues after 2004, and the two sides were able to put production of local goods would be removed. Liberalized arrangements would be put in together the elements of a solution to the Kashmir issue by early 2007. place for freer flow of investment and services between the units. The defense of both units would continue to be the responsibility of the two countries, respectively, in Reflecting the trust and confidence thus established between the two countries and the accordance with their existing positions. progress achieved, it is significant that their joint statement on 18 April 2005 in New Delhi expressed a determination that “the peace process should be irreversible” and that Giving details of the progress made in an interview with Karan Thapar on 18-19 July acts of terrorism should not “derail it.” It was such an important development that the 2009, the then president General said that the two countries were secretary general of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, welcomed the joint statement. close to an agreement on three issues, i.e., Kashmir, Siachen, and Sir Creek. He added that the agreement on Kashmir was based on three principles: demilitarization, self- Notwithstanding the above, one area of increasing concern to Pakistan in recent years governance, and a joint mechanism. He said it was his idea that “we should carry out has been the issue of India's role in Balochistan. This was taken up officially with India, demilitarization on the Line of Control and also within Kashmir and on our side which was informed that Pakistan had credible intelligence about Indian activities on its reciprocal action,” although he added that the two countries had not worked out a border with Afghanistan where Baloch separatists and Pashtun dissidents were being schedule and timeline for doing so. specially trained in handling explosives and other sophisticated weapons at training camps. On self-governance, he said that “this would have meant giving maximum governance to the people of Kashmir on both sides, on the Indian side as well as the Pakistan side.” He Given this argument, the view gaining ground is that Afghanistan will not become added that there was a common understanding on the devolution of power to both peaceful unless Pakistan and India normalize their relations: “India wants to retain Srinagar and Muzaffarabad, based on what self-governance could mean since there was Afghanistan as a friendly state from which it can monitor Pakistan and where possible also an understanding that both sides needed to give maximum power to the people of cultivate assets to influence activities in Pakistan. Naturally Pakistan seeks to deny India Kashmir so that they felt reassured that they were governing themselves. There was a such opportunities” (Fair 2010). large measure of understanding on this point. This would have meant the restoration of Accordingly, there is growing recognition of this problem as reflected in a recent Article 370 (of the Indian Constitution), which was also designed to ensure self- comment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which states that “in governance. the long term the relationship between India and Pakistan remains the key determinant According to President Musharraf, the joint mechanism was meant “to be an over-watch of regional stability. And for as long as the two states remain locked in an intelligence on whatever we have decided, since the problem was the Line of Control, the idea was to war, with India supporting Baluch [sic] separatist groups, and the TTP and Pakistan make the Line of Control irrelevant by free passage of people, goods and trade,” in other continuing to see jihadism as an asymmetric tool against India, a significant drop in words, by removing all obstacles in the way of facilitating this movement. violent extremism seems a remote prospect” (IISS 2011). He said that the joint mechanism would oversee that self-governance and what had been Back-channel diplomacy devolved to the people of Kashmir was also implemented. There was to be a body with It is important to highlight the gains of the peace made during 2004-07, when the two Kashmiris on both sides. Sovereignty would be shared and the people of Kashmir given countries made progress in developing a framework agreement on Kashmir. Both India comfort with the approval of the governments of Pakistan and India. The Line of Control and Pakistan agreed to establish conditions of peace based on the principles of the (LOC) would become “like borders in the European Union today which exists on paper Charter of the United Nations and the peaceful coexistence between the countries. They but people can cross freely.” agreed that the conditions in Jammu and Kashmir would be addressed through agreed principles and structures to assure the people of the region a life of dignity, prosperity, There was agreement in principle, and a lot of work had also been done on the details of and peace where they would enjoy fundamental freedoms and rights, and that peace in this mechanism with various stakeholders, including Kashmiri leaders from both sides the region would be assured through a complete cessation of terrorism, violence, and of the LOC, such as Omar Abdullah who had come to Islamabad for a Pugwash meeting hostility while upholding full respect for human rights. and met Pakistani leaders at the time.

31 32 Apart from a common understanding on demilitarizing Kashmir and providing self- adopting a flexible position. Other Kashmiri leaders recognized the need for unity, but governance to the people of Kashmir, the joint mechanism would promote cooperation were not willing to go along with Geelani's approach. In their view, militancy was in various areas including water management. This would enhance further movement counterproductive and made life difficult for the Kashmiris while bread-and-butter between people on both sides of the LOC, since there were to be soft borders across it. issues were proving to be their priority. Notwithstanding the division between the Syed Kashmir-related CBMs included intra-Kashmir bus and truck services, the opening of Ali Shah Geelani, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, and Yasin Malik groups, Pakistan was keen to crossing points on the LOC, meeting points for divided families on the LOC, and greater promote an endorsement of the idea of a dialogue process for which Pakistan interaction among the Kashmiri leadership on both sides of the LOC. These CBMs were maintained contacts and held consultations with all the major Kashmiri leaders of the intended to improve the political atmosphere in the region which, together with a two countries. conducive international environment, offered a unique opportunity for both Pakistan and India to resolve the Kashmir dispute. As the dialogue between India and Pakistan gained momentum and progress was made on various issues, the APHC leaders visited Pakistan during which Farooq said that there A monitoring and review agreement was envisaged under which the two countries' could be no military solution to the Kashmir issue and that the Kashmiri people could foreign ministers would meet to monitor progress and the agreement itself was to be not be ignored in any dialogue process aimed at resolving the issue. Subsequently, he subject to review at the end of 15 years to determine whether anything needed to be was quoted by the Indian Express (21 January 2007) as having told people in Pakistan changed or whether the agreement could carry on in the same manner. that the time to end armed struggle in Kashmir had come as “it has achieved nothing but graveyards.” It may be noted here that the sine qua non of all negotiations is that both sides enter them without prejudice to their position, and that is what India and Pakistan were doing Progress on Sir Creek and Siachen during this period. There was also progress on the issue of Sir Creek. This is an old issue that was tackled by the Government of India in 1914 by demarcating the land boundary of the creek, which “Cleansing peace and a transformational peace between Pakistan and lies between and the Kutch state. While India supports the center of the creek for India” this purpose, Pakistan's position is that the creek's boundary be demarcated along the By early 2007, the two sides had developed a nonpaper, which served as a deniable but line agreed in 1914. The issue came alive because of the changing course of the Indus detailed basis for a deal and could have changed the nature of relations between India River and the need to demarcate a boundary. The Indians claimed that the boundary and Pakistan. should be drawn on the western side of the river on Sir Creek while Pakistan claimed it Coll (2009) notes that it was not just the settlement of Kashmir itself but an end to covert should be on the eastern side. Unfortunately, fishing communities on both sides face the wars and suspicion, and greater trade and transit cooperation between the two danger of trespassing on the territorial waters of the other. This also has implications for countries; this would have become a “cleansing peace” and a transformational peace the exclusive economic zone under the Law of the Sea provisions, as the two countries between Pakistan and India. have to agree to some form of an extension of these points into the sea. Both countries have carried out a joint survey and have agreed on a map which should facilitate an early In Pakistan, however, many felt that the president had made a U-turn on Kashmir while decision. there was also a feeling among a number of those associated with policymaking that the world was changing and that Pakistan too had to change. Critics of the back channel in Siachen is a 72 km long and 2/3 km wide glacier that was uninhabited prior to 1984. Pakistan maintained that India would get what it had always wanted. According to However, India started sending expeditions to this area in the 1970s and moved its Indian columnist Prem Shankar Jha, Pakistan “had conceded 95 per cent of India's troops there in 1984. In 1989 and 1992, the two countries agreed in principle to refrain conditions” (Jha 2007). Kashmiris would get some powers of trade, travel across the from the use of force and to work toward a comprehensive settlement. In 2004-2006, LOC, and their comfort level would increase with the withdrawal of troops. they worked out certain schedules of disengagement whereby both Indian and Pakistani concerns could be met. The Indian concern was that the two positions from which its Association of the Kashmiri leadership in the peace process troops were withdrawing be authenticated on the map that was to be signed. Pakistan It may be recalled that Pakistan also initiated a dialogue with the Kashmiri leadership could not authenticate these positions because they were disputed. However, Pakistan after the commencement of the composite dialogue in 2004. India agreed to the was willing to include them in an unsigned annexure to the agreement. If the two Pakistani proposal that the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leadership should countries were to decide to sign the agreement on Siachen and Sir Creek, they could do so be associated with the peace process. The top Kashmiri leaders were, however, divided. at any time. Syed Ali Shah Geelani was even opposed to the proposal that a bus service be started between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar. He criticized President Musharraf's four points Is the threat of a water war with India real? and his position on the UN Security Council's resolutions on Kashmir. He was against During the last few years, the water issue has acquired growing importance. If one were to interpret the spirit of the Indus Waters Treaty, there has to be some give and take on

33 34 both sides. It needs a conducive environment and mutual trust, both of which are scarce the region, including Afghanistan, wherein both India and Pakistan should pledge not to commodities in relations between India and Pakistan. use Afghan territory for undermining the other.

While India has the right to build dams, it cannot stop the flow of water into Pakistan in The resumed dialogue should promote a narrative of relations that should take into order to fill these dams, particularly at the time that would cause maximum damage to account new realities and challenges, including the recognition that terrorism is a farmers in Pakistan. India can construct dams within the technical specifications common enemy. This will also help strengthen the Pakistani government's efforts to outlined in the treaty. In compliance with the treaty, India has not so far constructed any dismantle the militant infrastructure focused on Kashmir and reinforce its ability to storage dam on the Indus, Chenab, or Jhelum rivers. There are reports suggesting that prevent its territory from being used in any manner for terrorist activities against its India is planning to construct a large number of big and small dams on the Chenab, neighbors. which would clearly aggravate the water situation in Pakistan. The hydroelectric projects that India is developing are run-of-the-river projects that it is permitted to In the new world order, we see a pattern of relations where, despite tensions and undertake according to the treaty. disputes, countries cooperate while competing at the same time. Only good relations between India and Pakistan can realize the full potential of SAARC, which has remained There are those in Pakistan who believe that India is willing to interpret the provisions of hostage to the conflict between India and Pakistan. Because of mistrust and suspicion in the Indus Waters Treaty to its advantage by manipulating water flows into Pakistan, the presence of lingering disputes, Pakistan has, according to various commentators, testing Pakistan's will as well as the treaty's limits, rather than implementing the treaty taken a negative position on according most-favored nation status to India and SAFTA. in letter and spirit. Hopefully, the focus can be on sharing best practices in water The full potential of SAARC will only be realized if the two countries move beyond CBMs, management and cooperation. avoid propaganda, build trust with patience, and if political contact moves forward.

American facilitation There is need for a change in mindset on both sides with a view to tackling issues of The Bush administration played an active role in initiating the dialogue between India mutual concern and addressing the trust deficit. We should not miss another and Pakistan in 2003. The active engagement of Secretary of State Colin Powell and opportunity to do so and to move on to a win-win situation where we all have a stake in Deputy Secretary Armitage and, later on, Secretary Rice, with the two countries' foreign the movement toward peace and prosperity. ministers and leaders enabled Washington to nudge, facilitate, and move the peace process. While the Americans played a major role, other countries also provided support To do so, the two countries should: to the peace process. The feeling at the time was that the two countries were in a 1. Adopt a policy of sensitive communication by conducting diplomacy through political and strategic balancing act and that the way forward was through dialogue. diplomats based in Delhi and Islamabad rather than through the press. The Obama administration should use its leverage to facilitate a dialogue toward the 2. Move forward based on the work that was done during earlier rounds of talks on resolution of outstanding issues between India and Pakistan, including the Kashmir Kashmir and other issues. The two countries should move both on the front and issue, quietly and actively. back channels. The two sides should agree to continue the joint search for mutually The way forward acceptable options for a peaceful negotiated settlement of Siachen, Sir Creek, Pakistan has been fighting militancy since April 2009. Its efforts and sacrifices have Kashmir and terrorism, and water. generally been commended, including its move against militants in Swat Valley, Malakand, and South Waziristan, and destroying their safe havens. India, however, has 3. Initiate a peace process in which the two countries aim to address each other's core accused Pakistan of a lack of will to punish those responsible for the terrorist attacks in concerns. They should consider the possibility of a discrete dialogue to bridge the Mumbai in November 2008. trust deficit. The two countries should also open a track to discuss strategic issues, including Afghanistan and strategic stability and deterrence, because India, Some commentators also believe that Pakistan has yet to make a full-course correction Pakistan, and Afghanistan share linkages and can resolve differences if they are so with respect to action against militants of all shades and hues. Its critics believe that this inclined. it is not a question of the government's inability but rather its unwillingness to go after some of these groups, and that Islamabad will determine its position toward these In creating a new paradigm on cooperation, focus on the following issues is essential: groups once the endgame in Afghanistan becomes clear since it is reluctant to be saddled 1. Tackle terrorism by treating it as a common threat and developing a joint with elements there that are hostile to Pakistan. mechanism on counterterrorism whereby intelligence agencies share information. The Pakistani response to its critics is that its operations against various terrorist groups The two countries have many fault lines and instead of exploiting them, they should are based on its timeline, operational needs and resources, and the evolving situation in cooperate with each other in addressing these common threats.

35 36 2. Develop common interests in the prosperity and welfare of the people of the two countries through a paradigm shift. The comprehensive framework of regional cooperation and SAARC could be a means for achieving this objective.

3. Create a framework for the resolution of outstanding issues, particularly Kashmir, Siachen, and Sir Creek. Considerable work has been done by both countries to finalize agreements on these three issues, based on the progress achieved during The Prospects for Indo-Pak Dialogue Satish Chandra 2004-07; the two countries can achieve positive results. ndia's foreign policy, like that of any other country, is the result of a complex It is worth stressing that the two countries witnessed the gains of peace in what seemed interplay of several factors, most notably its history, geography, power potential, to be a paradigm shift in their relations in 2003-07, including increased people-to- ethos, and polity. These have led India to adopt a resolutely independent foreign people contact; progress in the composite dialogue to promote friendly exchanges, I policy outside any alliance system, based on a sense of empathy and solidarity with enhance economic cooperation, encourage conventional, nuclear, and cross-LOC developing countries, particularly in Asia and Africa. The inherently tolerant and CBMs; and progress on back-channel negotiations on Kashmir. It is clear that resuming resilient Indian ethos, which is marked by the absence of any hegemonic or territorial the dialogue with work on various tracks would increase prospects for the resolution of ambitions, has propelled it toward a democratic, secular, and federal polity and outstanding issues and enhance opportunities for trade, travel, transit, and tourism influenced its desire to advocate peaceful coexistence and the resolution of differences between the two countries. Hard work and diplomacy lies ahead. Political will and through dialogue. The practical underpinning for such an approach lies in the courage by the leaderships of the two countries will take the process to a positive recognition that peace is essential for rapid economic progress—a prerequisite for lifting outcome. This will ensure peace and prosperity for the people of the two countries. its people out of poverty. Parliamentarians from the two countries have an important role to play in the process In view of the above, the establishment of close and friendly ties with its immediate and in moving it forward. The media, inter alia, has to promote the constituency for neighbors has always been a high Indian priority. Its relations with its neighbors have peace through a balanced assessment of the issues and obstacles impeding progress, been colored by the concept of panchsheel, which entails respect for each other's which should help curb the tendency to resort to shrill commentary in the two countries territorial integrity and sovereignty, nonaggression, noninterference, equality, mutual on issues of interest. The people's support is crucial to the peace process. Accordingly, a benefit, and peaceful coexistence. Beyond this, India's vision for South Asia is that it paradigm shift cannot occur without the cooperation of important nongovernment should enjoy the freest possible movement of people, goods, and services across state actors. boundaries, as is the case in Europe. Visas should become redundant or at least much The way forward, therefore, is to move toward a positive sum approach dealing with the easier to obtain, cross-border trade and investment should be the norm, joint ventures common challenges in the process and focusing on the welfare of the two countries' should flourish, and a South Asian identity should become more recognizable. This is people by heeding the words of R W Emerson: “The only way to have a friend is to be India's hope and endeavor within the SAARC framework. Although progress in this one.” direction has been slow, India has registered considerable success bilaterally in taking its relationships with neighbors like Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka to new heights.

Khalid Mahmood, a former Pakistani ambassador, has taught development However, such success has not been replicated in Indo-Pakistan relations, which economics at Government College and the University of the Punjab in Lahore. He is continue to be marred by differences and distrust, although India remains committed to currently co-authoring a book with former Pakistani foreign minister Khurshid M. achieving friendly and good neighborly ties with Pakistan through dialogue. Since Kasuri on Pakistan's foreign policy during 2002-07. prominent Pakistani leaders such as former president General Pervez Musharraf and former foreign minister Khurshid Mahmood Kasuri have made known that the two References lColl, Steve. 2009. The back channel. The New Yorker, 2 March. countries' differences on major issues had virtually been resolved through back lFair, Christine. 2010. India in Afghanistan, Part 1: Strategic interest, regional concerns. channels, it is possible that the rocky relationship between the two countries rests not on Foreign Policy, 26 October. such differences but on Pakistan's inimical mindset with regard to India (Coll 2009; lInternational Institute for Strategic Studies. 2011. Strategic comments, South Asia still beset NDTV 2010). This has been promoted through the years by the establishment, which has by violent extremism. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past- needed the “Indian bogeyman” in order to keep the country together, avoid ceding issues/volume-17-2011/january/south-asia-still-beset-by-violent-extremism/. genuine power to democratic forces, and ensure that it continues to call the shots in l Jha, Prem Shankar. 2007. The peace we missed. Outlook India, 3 December. perpetuity (Nehru 1997, 58; Shaikh 2009, 184). It is not surprising therefore that today http://www.outlookindia.com/printarticle.aspx?236156. Pakistan repudiates the understandings reportedly arrived at through back-channel

37 38 diplomacy (see Shah Mehmood Qureshi's policy statement in parliament, reported in incorrect and unwarranted. While the majority of the Indian population is Hindu, India The News, 5 May 2010). is a secular state and its constitution accords equal treatment to all persons, both in terms of practicing and propagating their faith and in terms of their participation in all Pakistan's negative mindset, which has been the stumbling block to the normalization of spheres of public life. Indian Muslims number nearly 161 million, constituting the Indo-Pakistan relations, is largely due to the cultivation and propagation of the largest minority community and are the third-largest conglomeration in any country following myths about India: after Indonesia and Pakistan (Pew Research Center 2009). They are active participants 1. India has never reconciled itself to the creation of Pakistan. While India never in all facets of India's national life and have held the highest and most sensitive positions subscribed to the two-nation religion-based theory, it accepted the fact of Partition as an in government. irreversible phenomenon immediately after the event. In this context, it is relevant to 4. India is averse to good neighborly ties with Pakistan. In fact, India has always been recall that, while speaking at Aligarh Muslim University on 24 January 1948, Prime deeply committed to improving ties with Pakistan. To this end, it has over the years Minister Jawaharlal Nehru stated: made many concessions and gestures to Pakistan: We have been charged with desiring to strangle and crush Pakistan, (i) India paid Rs750,000,000 to Pakistan on account of the division of assets in and to force it into a reunion with India. That charge, as many others, 1947: Rs20,000,000 was paid in August 1947 and the balance of Rs55,000,000 is based on fear and a complete misunderstanding of our attitude…. in January 1948. Compulsion there can never be and an attempt to disrupt Pakistan (ii) It has not pursued its claims vis-à-vis Pakistan for nonpayment of the latter's will recoil to India's disadvantage…. There is no going back in partition debt of Rs300,000,000 (see www.taxindiaonline_com). history. As a matter of fact, it is to India's advantage that Pakistan (iii) Under the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, under which it had 40 percent of the should be a secure and prosperous state with which we can develop catchment area, India agreed to an allocation of only 20 percent of the flows of close and friendly relations. If today, by any chance, I was offered a the Indus waters. In addition, India paid Pakistan over GBP62 million to build reunion of India and Pakistan, I would decline it for obvious reasons. replacement canals and reservoirs, etc., as per Article V of the treaty. I do not want to carry the burden of Pakistan's great problems. I have (iv) Following the 1971 conflict, India negotiated an agreement with Pakistan in enough of my own (cited in Gopal 1986, 25-26). Simla in 1972 for across-the-board normalization of relations rather than Indeed, Indian leaders such as former Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee (Philipose 1999) imposing a settlement. In the process, India returned the 5,386 square miles of and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (Greater Kashmir, 3 May 2009) have echoed Pakistani territory it had captured (5,000 square miles in Sindh and 368 square Nehru's view of wanting to see a stable and prosperous Pakistan. miles in Punjab) without exacting a quid pro quo (Dhar 2001, 184). (v) India obtained “the concurrence of Bangladesh” (Raza 2001, 112) for the return 2. India has hegemonic designs on Pakistan. In fact, Indian policies are not Pakistan- of the nearly 92,000 Pakistani prisoners of war it held under the joint India- centric, unlike Pakistan's policies, which are India-centric. Any action on India's part is Bangladesh Command without asking for anything in return. popularly perceived by Pakistan as directed against the latter. India has never coveted (vi) India facilitated Pakistan's entry into the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in any Pakistani territory nor had any designs on it. Its primary concern is the wellbeing of 1979 (Pakistan Times, 22 June 1978) and re-entry into the Commonwealth in its nationals and it does not want to be distracted from this task. The harsh reality of 1989. geopolitics has meant that India, with security concerns extending well beyond (vii) India has unilaterally accorded most favored nation treatment to Pakistan for Pakistan, has had to divert its resources toward building up its capabilities to be able to import of the latter's goods to India. safeguard its territorial integrity and sovereignty. This does not signify hegemonic tendencies. In an interview to Dawn News TV (aired on 13 October 2009), Air Marshall Clearly, such negative myths about India must be jettisoned for any genuine Asghar Khan pointed out that all the Indo-Pakistan wars were started by Pakistan, not improvement in Indo-Pakistan ties to occur. Notwithstanding Pakistan's unrelenting initiated by India. George Fulton, while referring to the omnipotence of the Pakistan hostility toward India, the latter continues to seek the normalization of relations military, states: “Kargil, the attack on India's Parliament and, more recently, Mumbai through dialogue. have all occurred since we got the bomb—attacks that couldn't have been carried out without some military/intelligence involvement” (Express Tribune, 2 March 2011). It is Multiple tracks of engagement Indo-Pakistan engagement has taken place on multiple tracks that fall into the following thus clear that, while India has been a status quo state all along, Pakistan has stopped at four broad categories: nothing to change the status quo against India. lTrack 1, or official level-dialogue, is conducted between the two countries at the 3. India is a Hindu state and therefore inimically disposed to Pakistan. This is both summit and ministerial level, and among their respective diplomats and

39 40 bureaucrats. Such dialogue has often been in full public gaze but occasionally has coordinated and monitored by the foreign secretaries. It was India's hope that, once the also been discreet. dialogue was underway, progress in some areas at least would become possible, thereby lTrack 1.5 dialogue, better known as the “back channel,” is officially sanctioned facilitating the normalization of relations. dialogue on behalf of the respective governments but away from public gaze. lTrack 2 diplomacy constitutes unofficial interaction among opinion makers: former The India-Pakistan joint statement of 23 September 1998 identified issues of concern to officials and military personnel, academics, journalists, and even politicians. Such be addressed by the two sides and the levels at which this would be done, in the following interaction may occur with or without government approval and its outcome may or terms: may not be fed to the respective governments. lPeace and security, including confidence-building measures (CBMs) (foreign l Track 3 diplomacy occurs as people-to-people exchanges. secretaries). lJammu and Kashmir (J&K) (foreign secretaries). Official-level or track 1-diplomacy lSiachen (defence secretaries). This ranges from expert-level meetings, as between the Indus water commissioners, to lWuller Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project (secretaries for water and power). summit-level meetings between the leaders of the two countries. The point persons for lSir Creek (additional secretary for defence/surveyors general). Indo-Pakistan relations and the conduct of dialogue between them are the two countries' lTerrorism and drug trafficking (home/interior secretaries). respective foreign secretaries. lEconomic and commercial cooperation (commerce secretaries). Through the 1980s and right up to January 1994, the Dixit-Shahryar Khan talks, the lPromotion of friendly exchanges in various fields (secretaries for culture). Indo-Pakistan foreign secretary-level dialogue, occurred without a predetermined and standard written agenda, with each side free to raise any issue. Of course, each side was In pursuance of the aforesaid joint statement, the first substantive round of the made aware in advance of what the other would raise. Discussions at these meetings composite dialogue was initiated with the foreign secretaries holding separate meetings were wide-ranging and occasionally even covered regional issues. The talks were on items (i) and (ii) above in October 1998, followed by meetings between the officials supplemented on a need basis by autonomous secretary/expert-level talks. concerned on the remaining six issues. A review of these discussions, scheduled for the first half of February 1999, was not to be because of Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit to Following the January 1994 Indo-Pakistan foreign secretary-level talks, Pakistan Pakistan that month and the subsequent deterioration in ties between the two countries. indicated its unwillingness to continue unless India gave some substantive signals that it Kargil, the military coup in Pakistan, the IAC aircraft hijacking en route to Kandahar, would to meet Pakistan's demands on Kashmir, notably the withdrawal of Indian troops Agra, the terrorist attacks most notably on the J&K assembly and the Indian parliament, and the holding of a plebiscite. In adopting this approach, which resulted in a three-year and Operation Parakram, etc., stymied the composite dialogue process, curtailed hiatus in foreign secretary-level talks, Pakistan perhaps felt that the breakdown in talks existing links, and brought the two countries to the brink of war. would serve it well in internationalizing the Kashmir issue, so important at a time when it was seeking a Kashmir-oriented resolution against India at the Human Rights The composite dialogue process, in its present form, was only resumed in June 2004 Commission and the first and third committees at the United Nations (UN). after a thaw in Indo-Pakistan relations in the preceding year marked by moves to restore and enhance contacts and connectivity along with the mutual decision of both countries During 1996, much work was done quietly, away from the glare of publicity, at the to observe a ceasefire along their borders. The immediate impulse for a renewal of the initiative of the Indian foreign secretary to get the dialogue process back on track (Malik composite dialogue came from the Vajpayee-Musharraf meeting on the sidelines of the et al. 2006, 11). The advent of the and Gujral governments greatly helped SAARC Summit in Islamabad in January 2004. The joint press statement issued this process and in March and June 1997, the broad parameters of the composite thereafter on 6 January 2004 not only refers to their decision to resume the composite dialogue process were hammered out during formal foreign secretary-level talks. These dialogue but also a clear undertaking by Musharraf that he would “not permit any were given final shape at a meeting between the two foreign secretaries on the sidelines territory under Pakistan's control to be used to support terrorism in any manner” of the UN General Assembly session in September 1998. (Indian Ministry of External Affairs 2004). It is clear from a joint statement issued by the two foreign secretaries, following their meeting in February 2004, that the agenda and The price that India paid for getting Pakistan to the table was to agree to give a high modalities of the dialogue process would remain the same as before except on the profile to the Kashmir issue through a structured and written agenda that provided that following two counts: it would be discussed at a separate meeting at the foreign secretary-level and prior to meetings on all other issues, barring meetings on peace and security (Pakistan Times, 23 1. The linkage between progress on other issues and progress on Kashmir, so keenly June 1997; Indian Embassy 1998). While not accepting Pakistan's view that progress on desired by Pakistan and earlier to an extent ensured by the words that all issues would be any issue should be made hostage to progress on Kashmir, India conceded the point that addressed in an “integrated manner,” was attenuated. all issues should be addressed in an “integrated manner” and progress thereon would be

41 42 2. The review process earlier kept at the foreign secretary level was elevated to foreign much more discreetly) could explore out-of-the box ideas. Accordingly, the real business minister level in deference to Pakistan's demands. for bringing about a paradigm shift in Indo-Pakistan relations was attempted via the back channel. Thus, not only Musharraf but also Singh (Greater Kashmir, 3 May 2009) Between 2004 and 2008, four rounds of the composite dialogue were completed; the and the former Pakistani foreign minister Khurshid Kasuri have publicly acknowledged two countries had barely commenced the fifth round when the 26/11 terrorist attacks by that the two sides were close to a settlement on J&K in 2007. While the details of this the Lashkar-e-Taiba in Mumbai violated the solemn assurances given at the highest settlement are still unknown, it is believed that it contained elements of Musharraf's levels by Pakistan, thereby eroding the basis of the dialogue, i.e., that talks must take four-point plan—softening the LoC, demilitarization, self-rule, and joint place in a terror-free environment. mechanism—as well as the Indian position that there could be no change in borders nor The main achievements of the composite dialogue from 2004 and 2008 can be listed as any solution based on communal considerations. However, internal political turmoil in improving the international ratings of the two countries, improving the atmosphere of Pakistan in 2007 left Musharraf in no position to complete the deal and the subsequent cooperation between them, the introduction of several CBMs designed primarily to Pakistan People's Party government has all but repudiated the understandings reached enhance India-Pakistan contacts and connectivity including across the Line of Control through the back channel. (LOC), a 500 percent increase in trade, and a tangible decline in infiltration and It is, however, debatable if the purported deal being worked out through the back ceasefire violations. However, despite all the hype about increased people-to-people channel would have been saleable in India. Solutions on such critical issues, in order to links and connectivity, the actual movement of people between the two countries is still be viable, must enjoy broad consensus within the country or risk rejection. For instance, well below the levels that existed before the closure of the Indian mission in Karachi in in working out the composite dialogue process through discreet track 1 diplomacy, the 1994. Prior to that, India was issuing over 20,000 visas per month as against around Indian leadership of the day had taken on board both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the 10,000 after the much-vaunted CBMs were put in place. It is also an unpleasant reality Indian National Congress. This is why the composite dialogue found such ready that, even as the composite dialogue was underway, through 2004 and 2008 there were acceptance in the country and survived successive regimes. Unfortunately, the same as many as 21 major terrorist actions against India, including the 2005 bombings in a cannot be said of the settlement being evolved through the back channel, and hence its Delhi market and the 2006 Mumbai train attacks. acceptability in India would always be suspect. Indeed, even the formalization of the Moreover, apart from not satisfactorily addressing India's concerns on terrorism, the border along the LOC, which is speculated to be part of the deal, would be a big composite dialogue also showed no success in resolving any of the key items, such as concession on India's part in the context of its claim to the entire state of J&K. In this J&K, Siachen, Tulbul, and Sir Creek. Progress on each of these issues was stymied by context, one need only recall the unanimous resolution of the Indian parliament in Pakistan's inflexibility. On J&K, Pakistan continued to work for a change in the status February 1994 that declared that the entire state of J&K, including portions of the state quo adverse to India; on Siachen, while agreeable to a withdrawal of forces on both sides, under Pakistani and Chinese occupation, as an inalienable part of India (South Asia Pakistan remained averse to authenticating on maps the positions occupied by its forces; Terrorism Portal 1994). on Tulbul, despite having cleared the project at a technical level in 1991, Pakistan held Track 2 diplomacy that it was not within the parameters of the Indus Waters Treaty; and on Sir Creek, There is a surfeit of track-2 diplomacy between India and Pakistan, much of which is Pakistan refused to accept a settlement as per international norms along the mid- financed by external players, including the Ford Foundation, some German channel of the creek, and insisted on its maximalist position that the boundary should be foundations, and Pugwash Conferences. Some of the more prominent track 2 exercises on the creek's eastern bank. are the Neemrana Dialogue, which was set up about two decades ago, and the Chaophraya Dialogue, which is of more recent origin and organized by the Islamabad- Back-channel or track 1.5 diplomacy The back channel came into vogue in November 1998 when R. K. Mishra and Niaz Naik based Jinnah Institute and New Delhi-based Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies. engaged with each other on behalf of their principals, Prime Minister Vajpayee and Track 2 diplomacy enjoys the advantage of enabling interaction in a relatively Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, respectively. The Musharraf coup derailed the back unstructured setting between opinion makers of the two countries who have a degree of channel and it was only revived following the January 2004 Vajpayee-Musharraf access to policymakers and are not weighed down by the responsibility of office. This is meeting with the Indian side being represented by National Security Advisor Brajesh more conducive to out-of-the box thinking than the back channel. The major advantage Mishra and the Pakistani side by Principal Secretary Tariq Aziz. While the back channel of track 2 diplomacy is that it enables participants to gain a better perspective of the has continued since, albeit with changed interlocutors, it has been comatose as a result other side's thinking and compulsions, and can therefore be a useful input to of the 26/11 terror attacks in Mumbai. policymaking.

While the composite dialogue undertaken in the public gaze gave the participants little In concrete terms, however, track 2 deliberations have achieved little. The declarations opportunity to stray from the standard official line, the back channel (which operated issued after these deliberations are rarely noted by the two governments. Officials

43 44 neither keep any record of these meetings nor track them. This attitude is perhaps a http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2009/May/3/deal-that-wasn-t-58.asp. result of general skepticism within both governments about the organizations lIndian Embassy. 1998. India-Pakistan joint statement, 23 September 1998. concerned. It is also germane to mention that there is a wide divergence in the nature of http://www.indianembassy.org/prdetail1399/text-of-the-india-pakistan-joint-statement- participation between Indian and Pakistani delegates, with the former reflecting the issued-in-new-york. lIndian Ministry of External Affairs. 2004. India-Pakistan joint press statement, Islamabad, 6 entire spectrum of opinion in the country, and the latter sticking by and large within a January 2004. http://mea.gov.in/mystart.php?id=53017476. narrow band of official Pakistani policy. l———. 2009. India-Pakistan joint statement, 16 July 2009. http://mea.gov.in/mystart.php?id=550315041. Track 3 diplomacy or people-to-people exchanges l———. 2011. Agreed outcome of India-Pakistan foreign secretary-level talks in Thimphu, 10 From the long-term viewpoint, this is perhaps second in importance only to official-level February 2011. http://mea.gov.in/mystart.php?id=530217162 engagement, and is the most ignored and underrated in terms of its potential. It includes lMalik, V. P., Satish Chandra, Nirmala Deshpande, and Kalim Bahadur. 2006. Indo-Pak the crossing of borders by the entire spectrum of society, including divided families and composite dialogue. Indian Foreign Affairs Journal 1 (2). friends, academics and scholars, lawyers, businesspersons, doctors, civil society lNDTV. 2010. India and Pakistan were close to a Kashmir solution: Musharraf to NDTV. 9 activists, poets, singers and musicians, actors, filmmakers, and sportspersons. It is October 2010. http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/india-and-pakistan-were-close-to-a- something that India has worked for all along as it is only through such exchanges that kashmir-solution-musharraf-to-ndtv-58500?cp. misperceptions in each country about the other can be eradicated and long-lasting lNehru, B. K. 1997. Nice Guys Finish Second. Viking Books. l goodwill fostered. Pew Research Center. 2009. Mapping the global Muslim population. http://pewforum.org/Muslim/Mapping-the-Global-Muslim-Population.aspx. Post-26/11 scenario lPhilipose, Pamela. 1999. The symbol of Pakistan. Express India, 22 February. The 26/11 attacks in Mumbai by the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Pakistan's complicity in them, its http://www.expressindia.com/ie/daily/19990222/ige22062.html. reluctance to take any action against the perpetrators, and its failure to shut down the lRaza, Rafi, ed. 2001. Pakistan in Perspective 1947-1997. Karachi: Oxford University Press. l infrastructure of terror, has left little appetite in India for renewed engagement with its Shaikh, Farzana. 2009. Making Sense of Pakistan. C. Hurst & Co. Publishers Ltd. l neighbor. Prime Minister Singh has nevertheless tirelessly sought to revive the dialogue South Asia Terrorism Portal. 1994. Parliament resolution on Jammu and Kashmir. http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/document/papers/parliament_resolution process, even though there is no evidence that Pakistan is serious about addressing _on_Jammu_and_Kashmir.htm. India's concerns on terrorism. While his endeavors at Sharm-el-Shaikh in July 2009 to jumpstart the dialogue process by delinking it from terrorism had to be aborted (Indian Ministry of External Affairs 2009) in the face of adverse public opinion, following the India-Pakistan foreign secretary-level talks of February 2011 it is clear that the stage has been set for their resumption in the near future (Indian Ministry of External Affairs 2011). Since such an exercise does not enjoy popular support in the country, it could damage his political prospects.

In any case, the key to improved ties between India and Pakistan does not rest on dialogue per se but on a radically changed attitude by the latter toward the former. The prospects of normalization of relations between the two countries will remain bleak until and unless Pakistan gives up its anti-Indian mindset, which was clearly reflected in the chief's assertion that India poses a bigger threat to the country than the Taliban terror groups (Dawn, 4 February 2010; Nation 4 February 2010).

Satish Chandra is a former deputy national security advisor to the Indian government.

References lColl, Steve. 2009. The back channel. New Yorker, 2 March. lDhar, P. N. 2001. , the “Emergency”, and Indian democracy. USA: Oxford University Press. lGopal, S., ed. 1986. A common cultural inheritance. In Selected works of Jawaharlal Nehru. Vol. 1, 2nd series. New Delhi: New Delhi Memorial Fund. lGreater Kashmir. 2009. Deal that wasn't. 3 May.

45 46 is no surprise that many people within and outside South Asia viewed the statehood of Bangladesh with engrossing interest. The birth of Bangladesh also meant that it had all the potential to greet the post-communalist era and challenge the antagonism of identity politics. Unlike much of South Asia, Islam in Bangladesh expanded through Sufi saints rather than Mughal conquest. Furthermore, Bengalis were historically known to Foreign Relations and Identity Politics in Bangladesh practice the most liberal interpretations of religion since their culture was largely Mohammad Sajjadur Rahman influenced by Hinduism. However, very few people could imagine at that revolutionary time that the politics of secularism and debates over ethnic nationalism would become ationalism is arguably one of the most persistent and pervasive ideologies of highly contested and within just a few years would encourage Islamist nationalist forces the modern state system. While sovereignty provides the basic institutional to shape the nature of the political environment and foreign relations. Nframework of the system, national self-determination, a term often used synonymously with nationalism, provides the political power and moral meaning of the The new rulers of Bangladesh found the nationalist phraseology useful to legitimize their idea of an international society. However, the concepts of both national self- position and counter their critics, but the critical task of defining or limiting the determination and sovereignty are often found locked in fracas, and there is little boundaries of Bengali nationalism had still not been done. Although the people of West wonder that some regard nationalism as a source of disorder and chaos. Soon after the Bengal supported the Bangladesh movement, the question of a unified Bengal was never Cold War, a number of scholars defined the post-communist era as one characterized by raised. In fact, Tajuddin Ahmed, then the prime minister of the interim government of increased local-level conflicts, particularly ethno-nationalist movements. But others Bangladesh, assured Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi that the Bangladesh Awami also believe that, by recognizing the moral legitimacy of self-determination, a peaceful League had no agenda for a unified Bengal. The conscious use of the notion “75 million 1 international order can be achieved. In the last few years, scholars of international Bengalis” during the liberation war and after the emergence of Bangladesh also relations have become increasingly interested in the cultural interpretations of state confirms the subjective decision of Awami League leaders that only the Bengalis of East behavior. Despite the fact that theories of international relations so far have been Pakistan constituted a nation in their own right. This separateness was also evident in concerned mostly with agents and structures, there is also a growing recognition that the decision to include the geographical boundary of East Bengal in the national flag of 2 nationalist politics has been a constant indicator determining and shaping major foreign Bangladesh during the war. policy decisions. The contemporary literature on Chinese foreign policy or the resurgent The new constitution provided a chance to define the salient features of Bengali Russia's influence beyond its borders has convincingly emphasized the inherently nationalism, which was declared to be one of four state principles. However, neither nationalist character of the foreign policy of both these countries. Moreover, although Mujib nor his party leaders clearly spelled out their views on Bengali nationalism. Mujib disguised by the notion of civic patriotism and exceptionalism, many now acknowledge attempted to give simple, often vague, explanations of Bengali nationalism. In an that the US has long been a strongly nationalist state, which is well reflected in its important speech, he said: “My civilization of Bengal, and my Bengal nation—these relations with the external world. constitute Bengali nationalism” (Ittefaq, 8 June 1972). As most members of the One of the reasons for the pervasiveness of nationalism is its ability to meld and mesh parliament were all from the ruling Awami League, there was little debate on the with other ideological systems and different types of regimes. From the fascist Italy of definition of Bengali nationalism in the assembly, and thus the concept remained the 1930s to the theocratic Iran of today, the language of nationalism has been ambiguous.3 fascinatingly universal. However, there is a dearth of analysis regarding the impacts of Another critical factor that influenced the discourse of Bengali nationalism was the transformation within the nationalist discourse on the foreign policy behavior of states. question of the role of Islam in the new state of Bangladesh. The Pakistani experience This short essay is an attempt to discuss Bangladesh's foreign policy of the first two had been a bitter one in terms of political Islam, and it was quite understandable that decades with regard to the Muslim world. It shows how debates over nationalism and the secularism was going to be regarded as one of the cornerstones of Bengali nationalism in changing character of identity politics within the country have influenced its foreign the new Bangladesh. The Bengali term for secularism, translated as policy preferences. dharmaniropekshata, literally means “religious neutrality,” which is quite different The emergence of Bangladesh as the second-largest (now, the third-largest) Muslim from its meaning in the West. Due to widespread misperception of the term and the fear country in 1971 is considered a unique event in contemporary South Asian history for of ordinary Muslims that the survival of their religion was at stake in the hands of several reasons. It was the first modern regional state of the postcolonial era and was secularist leaders, Mujib had to assure the public many times that his secularism was not built on secular ideals and ethnic nationalism linked with one particular linguistic a threat to Islam. In fact, his understanding of secularism was close to group. Under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the new state was believed to noncommunalism. In a speech, he once said: be free of a colonial mindset and the late-colonial politics of communalism. Therefore, it

47 48 Secularism does not mean the absence of religion. You are a Washington's support for Pakistan and made known their concern that genocide was Mussalmaan [Muslim], you perform your religious rites. There is no being committed in East Pakistan. irreligiousness on the soil of Bangladesh but there is secularism. This sentence has a meaning and that meaning is that none would be In order to gain recognition from the Arab countries, Mujib and his foreign policy team allowed to exploit the people in the name of religion, or create such went through a series of international meetings that ultimately gained Bangladesh fascist organizations as the Al-Badr, Razakars etc. No communal membership of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). By 1974, along with politics will be allowed in the country (cited in Tazeen 1996). Pakistan, several Arab countries had recognized Bangladesh. This policy, tilted toward the Muslim world, was based on Bangladesh's national interest at the time, since the new However, in an attempt to appease critics of secularism, Mujib had to take several country badly needed petro-dollars in order to support its war-torn economy. However, initiatives. In 1974, he instituted the Madrassa Education Commission (Qudrat-i-Khuda Mujib failed to address the economic crisis and widening corruption of his Commission) to examine the faults of the madrassa (religious seminary) system and administration. The lofty slogans of “Sonar Bangla” (“Golden Bengal”) were soon suggest further improvements. In March 1975, the Islamic Foundation Act was passed. forgotten, and political leaders were scrambling for power and money just like the The purpose of the foundation was to work toward the propagation of Islam in society. A “Punjabi exploiters.” Conspiracy theories regarding “expansionist Hindu India”5 were change in Mujib's attitude also became noticeable. During the heyday of Bengali becoming popular among people. The government's failure to improve economic nationalism, he would usually end his public speeches with “Joi Bangla.”4 But from late conditions led some observers to believe that the very survival of the new nation was at 1972, he started adding the formal Bengali Muslim farewell greeting “Khuda Hafiz” to stake (see Maniruzzaman 1977). Mujib, who had fought for the parliamentary system of “Joi Bangla” to close his speech. Despite these attempts, a large section of the people government all his life, suddenly turned dictatorial and established a one-party state by remained confused about the nature of Muslim identity in a secular state. The confusion launching the so-called “Second Revolution.” The façade of democracy was lost and is understandable given that the literacy rate at the time was not more than 20 percent, growing resentment among the people became an opportunity for some disgruntled and only highly educated Bengalis could dream of a secular Bangladesh (for an young army officers to assassinate Mujib along with his family members on 15 August understanding of Islam's role in Bangladeshi society, see Huque and Akhter 1987). 1975. Thus, the project of a secular Bangladesh based on Bengali nationalism was shut down in brutal fashion. On 16 August, just one day after the death of the “Father of the Perhaps the most important step in secularizing Bangladesh in this period was to ban all Nation,” decided to recognize Bangladesh. Islamic parties, including the Jamaat-e-Islami, whose top leaders were alleged to have been directly involved in the massacre of 1971. The Pakistani army had created a so- The post-Mujib regime in Bangladesh immediately made several pro-Islamic and anti- called volunteer group (known as the Razakars) from among pro-Pakistani Bengalis, Indian gestures that pleased the Islamic elements of society and the Muslim world at which acted as a paramilitary group under the Pakistani army. The Razakars, along with large. General Ziaur Rahman, who came to power after a series of coups, tried to give his the Al Badar and Al Shams groups, can safely be regarded as the first Islamists of South administration a civilian face. In June 1978, he became president and soon after turned Asia in the post-1947 period. In order to save “Islamic” Pakistan from breaking apart, his attention to creating his own political party. His new party, the Bangladesh they facilitated the military operations of the Pakistani army and took part in violent Nationalist Party, was backed by retired army officers and a variety of political elements activities against fellow Bengalis who supported the liberation struggle. During the war, ranging from rightist Islamic forces to leftist groups such as the Muslim League (Shah hundreds of Bengali intellectuals were murdered by the army with direct support from Aziz), United Peoples Party, and a faction of the National Awami Party (Bhasani). Zia the Razakars. It is not surprising therefore that the Jamaat-e-Islami was the most and his party came up with the idea of “Bangladeshi Nationalism” (Dainik Bangla, 26 unpopular political party in Bangladesh after its liberation. It also partly explains why March 1972), which was in a sense based on anti-Indian feelings. It is interesting to note Islamic political parties never enjoyed mass popular support in Bangladesh. that in 1972, only six years earlier, Zia himself had written an article in which he underlined the importance of Bengali nationalism. What made him change his mind However, Mujib faced several challenges regarding Bangladesh's relations with the about nationalism remains a political mystery. Muslim world. During the war of liberation, not a single Arab country had supported the creation of Bangladesh. To the wider Muslim world, the military rulers of Pakistan were On 21 February 1976, six months after Mujib's assassination, the Bangla Academy able to portray the struggle in Bangladesh as anti-Islamic and supported by “Hindu” organized a seminar on Bengali nationalism on the occasion of Language Day. India. Saudi Arabia and Iran gave Pakistan military support, and things got worse when Khondokar Abdul Hamid, a journalist and former cabinet minister known for his Israel decided to give support and recognition to Bangladesh. Although Bangladesh was opposition to the liberation war, presented the keynote paper that provided the not willing and did not take any help from Israel, the Arab countries were piqued by theoretical basis of Bangladeshi nationalism. The key points of his paper were as follows: Israel's move (for an interesting discussion on the recognition of Bangladesh, see Singh 2003). The US and China also gave support to Pakistan due to Cold War regional Bengali nationalism would mean multi-state nationalism, for several interests. It should be mentioned here that US officials in Dhaka strongly condemned million Bengalis live outside Bangladesh who cannot be included

49 50 within the concept of Bengali nationalism; we cannot think in terms Article 38 was revoked, which had stated: “No person shall have the right to form, or be a of pan-Bengalism or supra-nationalism. member, or otherwise take part in the activities of, any communal or other association or union which in the name or on the basis of any religion has for its object, or pursues, a The people of Bangladesh, West Bengal and other Bengali-speaking political purpose.” With these constitutional changes, the political understanding areas may speak Bengali, may eat rice, may have commonalities in between the Islamic parties and the parties of Bangladeshi nationalism grew stronger manners and customs, but they have not only different but also (for a detailed analysis of Bangladeshi nationalism, see Osmany 1992). And as the contradictory features in their cultures, national identity and number of madrassas and maktabs (elementary schools for religious teaching) national ideology. increased, the support base for the Islamic parties became larger.

There is a perpetual difference between East Bengal (present-day After Zia's assassination in 1981 in a military coup, President Ershad followed the same Bangladesh) and West Bengal (a state of India)—it relates to blood, ideology of Bangladeshi nationalism. Bangladesh's relations with the Muslim world mind, intellect, emotions, sensitivity, religion, philosophy, tradition, deepened during this period and Ershad started to make rhetorical gestures about the inheritance, food, clothing, way of life, and so on. Muslim ummah (community) and appease the Islamic groups. In order to secure his Bengali nationalism is not only a mistaken term but also historically volatile regime, he also sought support from the Arab countries by declaring Islam the unrealistic; it is without any substance as a political philosophy. state religion in 1988. Two years later, he was ousted from power through a mass democratic movement led by Zia's widow (Khaleda Zia) and Mujib's daughter (Sheikh Our nationalism should appropriately be termed “Bangladeshi” Hasina Wajed). nationalism, for this nation has got a glorious identity, legacy, history, tradition, faith, language, art, literature, sculpture, music The quick shift in the pattern of identity politics and foreign policy preferences in and so on and so forth. There are innumerable features in the Bangladesh is certainly bewildering (for a comparative study of the different phases of “Bangladeshi” mind and life that distinguish this nation from the rest nationalism in Bangladesh, see Kabir 1995). The debate over Bengali/Bangladeshi of the world and make them different from other speakers of Bengali nationalism has been so contentious that, by the 1990s, the whole nation seemed to be as well as followers of Islam in other areas [sic] (Ittefaq, 21 February sharply divided into two factions. While analyzing the politics of nationalism and the 1976; cited in Anisuzzaman 2000, 57). culture of secularism in Bangladesh, van Schendel (2000) identifies three ideological positions. The first, which he calls “renewal nationalism,” aims at redefining Bengali Thus, the concept of Bangladeshi nationalism was clearly influenced by communal nationalism in order to discredit authoritarianism and injustice. It is not merely a thinking from the very beginning. Zia's prime minister, Shah Azizur Rahman, even continuation of the old Bengali nationalism, but employs symbols of old nationalism to talked about the possibility of renaming the Bengali language to the “Bangladeshi” new ends. It argues that the post-1975 era has been marked by the manipulative politics language. Pressure mounted on Zia from right-wing Islamists to declare Bangladesh an of military rule, which created a false dichotomy between Bengali and Bangladeshi Islamic republic. His pro-Islamic foreign policy also earned him respect and fame in the nationalism. The second position or response developed due to the ideological crisis of Middle East. However, the increasing use of Islam and its symbols created an uneasy the mid-1970s, and is a fusion of old communalism and new interpretations of Islam. Far atmosphere for religious minorities living in Bangladesh. Furthermore, the Bangladeshi from being archaic, this response, which van Schendel calls “political Islam,” became nationalism that claimed to provide a comprehensive identity for the citizens of more innovative and attracted the peasant class and squeezed urban middle class. It Bangladesh failed to incorporate the ethnic minorities of the Chittagong Hill Tracts. provided an ideological alternative to the disgruntled children of the state elite. Political Islam tends to be post-nationalist, but it too provides communal identity and a sense of The constitution was manipulated to incorporate the basic ideals of Bangladeshi superiority. Van Schendel also thinks that these two positions do not have a monolithic nationalism. Its preamble was now preceded by the words “bismillahir rahmanur character and neither Bengaliness nor Islamism has been accepted as natural: rahim.” The phrase “liberation struggle” was replaced by the words “War of Independence” (thus giving more importance to the role of army personnel rather than Few people in Bangladesh have been willing to sacrifice their the guerilla fighters). “Secularism” was replaced by “total faith and belief in Almighty allegiance to either their ethnic group or their religious community. Allah,” “socialism” now read “economic and social justice,” and Article 12, which Even though it seems inevitable that some form of elaborated the principle of secularism, was obliterated (Government of Bangladesh “Bangladeshiness” should eventually develop, the compromise 1972, 13). All these changes paved the way for the return of Islamic political parties into which is on offer now is far from universally accepted (van Schendel politics. A new clause was incorporated in Article 25 of the constitution to the effect that 2000, 71). the state would endeavor to strengthen, consolidate, and preserve the fraternal relationship between Muslim states on the basis of Islamic solidarity. In May 1977, The third interpretation, which van Schendel calls “cultural pluralism,” gained

51 52 momentum in the early 1980s. It refuses to accept the debate among Bengalis regarding Mohammad Sajjadur Rahman is a lecturer at Department of International Relations their ethnic identity and emphasizes the unequal power relations between cultural at the University of Chittagong in Bangladesh. This paper is based on his earlier paper, groups. It also rejects the binary opposition between Hindus and Muslims on which the Islamism in Bangladesh, published in the Journal of International Relations 8 (1): 71-82 nationalist debate hinges. Cultural pluralists strongly argue that citizenship in in 2010. Bangladesh has been restricted to certain groups, excluding many others. They also believe that the elite has been busy making Bangladesh a highly centralized and Endnotes authoritarian state since the early days of its statehood. 1. The population of Bangladesh was estimated to be 75 million in the early 1970s. 2. However, when Bangladesh gained independence, the map was dropped from the national Similarly, Samaddar (2002) finds contradictory features in the nationalist era. When flag. The Bangladeshi flag was first hoisted by the student front of the Awami League in early Bengali nationalism was constructed as an ethical community in the 1950s and 1960s, it March 1971. The present flag without the map was probably first designed by the leftists. attracted a large section of people who were willing to support the movement. But post- 3. Article 9 of the Bangladesh constitution says: “The unity and solidarity of the Bangalee nation, 1971, when the difficult task of state formation started and citizens were supposed to which, deriving its identity from its language and culture, attained sovereign and independent submit to the state, the ethical content of Bengali nationalism began to fade away. Thus, Bangladesh through a united and determined struggle in the war of independence, shall be the basis of Bangalee nationalism.” Thus, the “war of independence” was used to differentiate a need for alternative morality was felt and this explains, as Sammaddar believes, the re- between the Bengalis of Bangladesh and the Bengalis of West Bengal. emergence of Islam as one of the structural components of nationalism in Bangladesh. 4. “Hail Bengal,” which is believed to originate from “Joi Hind,” a slogan used during the British Jahangir (1986), however, thinks that the lack of any substantive developmental period. ideology compelled the Muslims in Bangladesh to return to Islam and that this was 5. For example, the presence of the was increasingly viewed with suspicion. When inevitable. He is indeed pointing to the failure of civil society, but such interpretations they left in early March 1972, they took with them a huge quantity of arms and ammunition overlook the fact that political Islam was imposed from above in Bangladesh. Neither the surrendered by the Pakistani army. This created anger among Bangladesh's freedom fighters. major political parties of the 1970s nor the people demanded the return of Islam into the When the 25-year Treaty of Friendship was concluded with India, the fear of an expansionist public sphere. In fact, political Islam provided the much-needed legitimacy for the “Hindu India” grew immensely. The smuggling of jute to India became another contested military regimes and their Islamist partners. As many have observed, political Islam issue. Since then, issues of smuggling and sovereignty have become widely discussed in Bangladesh. could not and has not been able to fulfill the vacuity of ethics in the nationalist discourse.

What impact did the changing nature of nationalist debate on the foreign policy behavior References lAnisuzzaman M. 2000. The identity question and politics. In Bangladesh: Promise and of Bangladesh have on the Muslim world? As seen in the first three years of the Mujib performance, ed. Rounaq Jahan, 57. Dhaka: UPL. period, despite the fact that the Arab countries were not very enthusiastic about lGovernment of Bangladesh. 1972. Constitution of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. recognizing the new state of Bangladesh—largely seen as an Indian satellite—Mujib Dhaka: Government of Bangladesh. sought every possible way to convince his reluctant Arab counterparts. Bangladesh lHuque, A. Shafiqul, and M. Yeahia Akhter. 1987. The ubiquity of Islam: Religion and society in desperately needed petro-dollars and crude oils for its reconstruction efforts and wanted Bangladesh. Pacific Affairs 60 (2): 200-225. access to the Arab labor market. The situation changed when the secular Mujib was lJahangir, B. K. 1986. Problematics of nationalism in Bangladesh. Dhaka: CSS. assassinated and the post-Mujib military regimes became successful in making friends lKabir, Muhammad Ghulam. 1995. Changing face of nationalism: The case of Bangladesh. in the Arab world. Between 1971 and 1975, the aid given by Saudi Arabia, other Muslim Dhaka: UPL. l countries, and OPEC amounted to only USD78.9 million, but Bangladesh received Maniruzzaman, Talukder. 1977. Bangladesh in 1976: Struggle for survival as an independent state. Asian Survey 17 (2): 191-200. USD232.3 million in 1976-79 as external aid from the same sources (Singh 2003, 64). lOsmany, Shireen Hasan. 1992. Bangladeshi nationalism: History of dialectics and Besides, it received generous offers from Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries dimensions. Dhaka: UPL. regarding access to their labor markets, which ultimately became one of the backbones lSamaddar, Ranabir. 2002. Paradoxes of the nationalist time: Political essays on of the country's economic life. Coincidently, Bangladesh also witnessed a rise of Islamist Bangladesh. Dhaka: UPL. elements within the political arena post-1975. The military regimes not only supported lSchendel, Willem. 2000. Bengalis, Bangladeshis and others: Chakma visions of a pluralist Islamist elements for legitimacy, they also showed keen interest in becoming a key Bangladesh. In Bangladesh: Promise and performance, ed. Rounaq Jahan. Dhaka: UPL. member among the world's Islamic countries. Although this change of foreign policy lSingh, Nagendra K. 2003. Bangladesh and Islamic countries. In Encyclopedia of Bangladesh, should not be seen as an abrupt affair, it certainly gives us a chance to look critically at the 56-79. India: Anmol. lTazeen, Murshid M. 1996. The sacred and the secular: Bengal Muslim discourses 1871-1977. gradual transformation of Bangladesh's tilted policy toward the Muslim world, backed Dhaka: UPL. by a segment of the nationalist discourse.

53 54 acres)—nonexchangeable because India has no control over or access to them. Bangladeshi enclaves in India total 95, of which 72 (totalling 7,160.85 acres) are exchangeable and some 5,128.52 acres are nonexchangeable (Bhasin 2003, 2016). In May 1974, both countries agreed to exchange enclaves and allow people residing in these enclaves to either stay where they were or move to their parent country. While Imperatives of Bangladesh's Foreign Policy Bangladesh enacted legislation to actualize the May 1974 agreement in November that Imtiaz Ahmed year, India has yet to do so, even after a lapse of over 35 years.

The birth of Bangladesh and the diplomacy of recognition Critics such as Banerjee (2001) maintain that “there is a feeling in Dhaka that India is No policy, foreign or domestic, can remain stagnant. Bangladesh's foreign policy has reluctant to exchange the enclaves because it would lose around 10 lakh [one million] gone through several phases since its independence. The first phase can be referred to as acres of land to Bangladesh.” By delaying the process of ratification and the diplomacy of recognition, which included pursuing a policy of bringing back implementation, why has India contributed to such suspicions? Moreover, why did Bangladeshis who had become stranded in Pakistan as a result of the latter's breakup. India request a change in the text of the May 1974 agreement after Bangladesh had Since Bangladesh emerged as the result of a liberation war against Pakistan with India's ratified the agreement in its parliament? India's request came barely five days before the aid, several countries did not recognize Bangladesh in the initial stages of its deadline (31 December 1974) for signing the relevant maps with respect to “areas already independence in December 1971. Moreover, the US, China, and some Arab countries demarcated” and, interestingly, with a plea to do away with a firm deadline and have it tilted in Pakistan's favor during Bangladesh's liberation struggle (March-December postponed until the agreement had “been ratified by the two Governments.” (For a 1971) and, more particularly, during the Indo-Pakistan war in December 1971. One of the further exposition, see Bhasin 2003, 1889-1901.) first foreign policy challenges that Bangladesh faced was to change the position of those who had tilted in favor of Pakistan and have them recognize and support the newly This had the effect of postponing the exchange of “territories in adverse possession in independent country. areas already demarcated in respect of which boundary strip maps are already prepared” for an indefinite period, which in turn contributed to suspicion among the Bangladeshis. This was also during the Cold War, which further complicated Bangladesh's position The May 1974 agreement clearly distinguished between the “already demarcated” and internationally, since it meant “If you are not with us, then you are against us.” This, “still to be demarcated” areas and made it clear that the latter would not pose an obstacle Bangladesh could ill afford, as much of its economy was tied to the US, with which it was to the exchange of enclaves “in areas already demarcated.” What made India revise the desperate to reconcile. While the then USSR and east European countries supported original text then? With no official explanation as such, it now looks as though the idea of Bangladesh during its liberation struggle, they gave little economic support. There was forfeiting 1 million acres, as critics have pointed out, was indeed the reason. India's some trading relationship with China, but Bangladesh's business elite, bureaucracy, and request for an amendment to the May 1974 agreement at the last minute—and that too even intellectual class were all familiar with the West, leading to an element of hyper- after Bangladesh had ratified it in parliament—did not go down well with Sheikh Mujib. activism in trying to avail recognition from the US, pro-US Arab countries, and more In fact, sources close to him opined that he lost interest in developing a further significantly Pakistan. relationship with India following this incident. Although there has not been much research on this, one can see a transformation in Bangladesh's foreign policy starting in US recognition came in April 1972 but Bangladesh had to wait further for recognition 1974. from other countries who had sided with Pakistan. This came about when Pakistan hosted the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in Lahore in February 1974. It Economic diplomacy became extremely difficult for the OIC not to invite Bangladesh to the conference, since Practically, the diplomacy of recognition ended in 1974, particularly following it was then the second-largest Muslim-populated country in the world, after Indonesia. Pakistan's recognition of Bangladesh. This gave way to a newer phase in foreign policy, Several key leaders of the OIC came to Dhaka and asked Sheikh Mujibur Rahman to join which can best be referred to as economic diplomacy. There were good reasons for the conference, which he gladly did. By virtue of this, he gained recognition not only from this. Apart from the slow pace of post-war rehabilitation and reconstruction, mainly for the Arab countries but also from Pakistan before reaching Lahore for the conference. want of resources and misgovernance, Bangladesh faced two massive floods in Critics point out that India did not take this development in good spirit and, soon after, consecutive years (1973 and 1974), which not only led to famine at home but also created its relationship with Bangladesh began to falter. conditions for seeking more foreign aid. Although the lack of entitlement, to follow Amartya Sen, is blamed for the famine, the issue of “bureaucratic muddle” also The issue of enclaves, for instance, is a case in point. Bangladesh and India have as many contributed to it. This refers to the export of some 60,000 bales of jute to Cuba, which as 225 enclaves. Of these, 119 are exchangeable Indian enclaves in Bangladesh (totaling violated the conditions of US food aid under Public Law 480, Title I. Receiving food 17,157.72 acres) and 11 are nonexchangeable enclaves (totaling 3,799.35 under the latter disallows the receiving country from trading with US “enemies,” which

55 56 then included Cuba. But food was desperately required following the unprecedented CNN 2011). If Bangladesh is to move beyond its current economic growth rate of over 6 floods. When the US stopped the flow of supplies, it took some time for the required food percent and reach the not-so-implausible growth rate of 10 percent in less than a decade, to reach Bangladesh, which interestingly came via Russia. In the meantime, thousands it needs to resolve its energy requirements on a priority basis. Here, Bangladesh needs to died for lack of food. The ensuing economic crisis made it clear that Bangladesh could think beyond oil and coal, and keep all its options, including civil nuclear power, open. not do without the support of the West, and so catering to western interests in the hope of This will require investment in knowledge creation, language competence, sophisticated receiving food and nonfood aid became a cornerstone of Bangladesh's foreign policy. dialoguing, and expertise in drafting agreements at both bilateral and international Following the change of the government in 1975, the thrust on economic diplomacy, levels. Any lethargy or slippage in what could be protracted external maneuverings is particularly in cementing relationships with western economies, gained further bound to cost Bangladesh heavily. There have been some policy initiatives in this sector. momentum. First is the signing of an agreement with India under which the latter will supply 250 MW of electricity to Bangladesh from the Indian grid. Second, on the issue of maritime Globalization, however, brought new dynamics to Bangladesh's foreign policy. Its boundaries, which has energy security implications, Bangladesh has taken its claims clothing industry, for instance, has progressed well by adding value to the commodity, against India and Myanmar to the international arbitration court. Third, Bangladesh which the industry has been able to pursue to the envy of many—including big players has signed an MOU with Russia to build a civilian nuclear reactor. such as China and India—mainly because of the relatively cheap labor and the ingenuity of some local manufacturers. This has contributed to a situation in which capitalists and But globalization has invited policy initiatives in other areas as well. There has been workers are structurally tied up with the economies of the developed West and therefore some realization in India that, if development in the northeast is to be expedited and ought to be more attentive to developments there, including the growth of the economy made meaningful, it will require active support from Bangladesh. In this regard, or lack of it or even who is in charge of the government. Since the meltdown in the US following Sheikh Hasina's visit to Delhi in January 2010, the two countries signed a 50- economy, there have been regular discussions as to what impact it would have on the clause agreement. The agreement included a wide range of initiatives, such as (i) India Bangladeshi economy. There is actually a possibility of gaining from the crisis, and the providing a USD1 billion loan to Bangladesh for infrastructural development, (ii) reasons for this are not farfetched. Traditionally, products from Bangladesh abroad have removing tariff and nontariff barriers and bringing down the “negative list” from 260 catered to middle- and low-income groups, and since the US government has pledged to items to 47, (iii) resolving border disputes in the light of the 1974 Land Boundary support the people of the “main street,” there is now a possibility that the US middle class Agreement, (iv) operationalizing connectivity between Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and would benefit directly from such a policy and be able to afford goods imported from Bhutan, and (v) sharing rivers, among many more. The goal has been mainly to foster a Bangladesh, from garments to pharmaceutical products. The challenge lies in whether it win-win relationship with the objective of having Bangladesh on India's side in the will be able to deliver the goods and broaden its market. In fact, in garment exports latter's quest to develop the northeast. alone, the turnover this year could cross the USD15 billion mark, which is no mean achievement on the part of Bangladesh. After all, it has emerged as the third-biggest Indeed, there are good reasons for this. Few will deny the fact that globalization has garments producer in the world after China and Turkey. made a difference to China to the point that it has contributed to a 10 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for many years. Even with the global economic Energy diplomacy meltdown, China expects a 9.8 percent GDP growth rate and a 3.7 percent rise in its Taking this further would require resolving the deficit in the energy sector. Or, to put it consumer price index in 2011 (Jia Xu in China Daily, 24 January 2011). More differently, Bangladesh must embark upon a newer phase in its foreign policy, that is, importantly, when it comes to South Asia, China has emerged as the largest trading start creatively pursuing energy diplomacy. Noteworthy is the fact that in addition to partner of not only Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, but also of India, even the economic meltdown the developed economies are facing global energy crisis, though the political relationship between India and China remains far from cordial. particularly in the backdrop of the military involvement of the US and the West in Iraq, China, for instance, took its territorial dispute with India to the Asian Development Afghanistan and now Libya. This is bound to have a short-term, if not a long-term, Bank, where it blocked India's application for a loan that included development projects impact on both developed and less developed economies (Stiglitz and Bilmes 2008), in its north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. China claims the latter as part of its own including Bangladesh, unless creative policy initiatives are undertaken to overcome territory and refers to it as “southern Tibet” (Pant 2010, 95-96). them. What is worrying for India is the marginalization and alienation of the northeast and the Skyrocketing oil prices from USD3 per barrel in 1970 to a record high of USD147.27 per impact that China's development could have on the region. As one critic points out: “The barrel in mid-July 2008 were followed by a scaling down to USD105.60 per barrel, but development of infrastructure by China in its border regions with India has been so with the possibility of rising again against the backdrop of the war in Libya. This only rapid and effective and the Indian response so lackadaisical that the Indian Member of indicates that the energy crisis is far from over, and will remain until and unless Parliament from Arunachal Pradesh was forced to suggest, in sheer exasperation, that alternative energy sources come to support our lifestyle (Associated Press 2008; see also the government should allow Arunachal to get a rail link from China as, even sixty years

57 58 after independence, India has failed to connect this state to the nation's mainland” (Pant marginalized peoples. Bangladesh is already at the top of the global climate risk index. 2010, 98). In fact, before work began in September 2010 to extend the world's highest The international NGO Germanwatch prepared the index for 170 countries, and railway line from the Tibetan capital of Lhasa west to its second-largest city, Xigaze, near Bangladesh tops the list with a death toll of 4,729 in 2007 due to natural calamities, with the Nepalese border, China had already announced another rail extension east to an additional absolute loss of property worth more than USD10 billion (Daily Star, 5 Nyingchi, less than 50 km from the Line of Actual Control in Arunachal Pradesh December 2008). But among the population, it is the marginalized who suffer the most (International Institute for Strategic Studies 2011, 212). India could respond only by as a result of global warming, floods, cyclones, droughts, and now tsunamis. This deploying two additional army divisions and heavy tanks, and ramping up its airpower challenge can only be met with regional and global efforts, and therefore climate in the region (Pant 2010, 99), a far cry from the kind of development that is required to diplomacy is bound to emerge on the priority list of Bangladesh's foreign policy agenda. assuage the sub-nationalist aspirations of the people of northeast India. It ended up playing an active role at the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, particularly in bringing about a compromise among key global actors. It may be mentioned that, This is where globalization and Bangladesh come in. If China were to end up as the although China and India are at loggerheads when it comes to territorial claims, the two largest trading partner of both Bangladesh and India, then there would be no reason for countries have no problem in working together on climate change, often to the detriment the three countries not to join hands and work for a win-win outcome in the region. At of disaster-prone countries in the region, including Bangladesh, Nepal, and the this stage, however, India is keen to solicit a newer positive relationship with Bangladesh Maldives. A creative effort is therefore required for Bangladesh to reap the benefits of that would come to its aid in developing the northeast, indeed, with an eye on offsetting climate diplomacy. How far policymakers are currently equipped in terms of China's influence there. But this will hopefully change soon, and policymakers in both environmental discourse is worth reflecting on, as well as what should be done to Delhi and Beijing will see merit in the three countries working together. overcome weaknesses, if any.

But globalization ought not to be measured in statist terms alone. In contemporary Deleuze and Guattari refer to the process of post-territoriality or de-territorialization as times, among the many ironies that have found acceptance in our lives, the most giving rise to a simultaneous process of re-territorialization, although the latter remains outrageous is the simultaneity of war and rehabilitation. Apart from highlighting their substantially different from the previous territoriality (1972/2004, 210-217). Indeed, futility, it constitutes a sheer drainage of resources. But then contradictions of this kind the territorial meaning of Bangladesh has become less relevant and the meaning that also create opportunities for many. If the private US army, Blackwater (now Xe now has greater appeal is more demographic and inclusive of Bangladeshis living Services), is super-profiting from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (Scahill 2008), then abroad. Indeed, given its civilizational and social links, Bangladesh is readily taken to there is money to be made from rehabilitation work as well. This is precisely what BRAC, sympathize with or even support the Islamic cause in some Arab countries and a Bangladeshi nongovernment organization (NGO), is engaged in, albeit on a modest elsewhere, creating at times the notion that it is “soft” on so-called “Muslim militants” or scale, in war-torn Afghanistan. But skill in rehabilitation work and disaster management “Islamic terrorists.” This has particularly been the case with the US post-9/11, with the does not come naturally, it is an outcome of years of experience, and BRAC is a proven latter having even categorized Bangladesh as “high-risk” in its global war on terrorism. If institution in this matter. Despite its record, nongovernment foreign policy initiatives, globalization has de-territorialized Bangladesh, it has also re-territorialized particularly for want of state sponsorship and regulations, are susceptible to hazards Bangladesh, albeit on a different plane mixed with anguish and apprehension. and limitations. The killing and kidnapping of several BRAC officials in Afghanistan are cases in point. Not that this should provide reasons to postpone such ventures, but it is a Cultural diplomacy clear indication that nongovernment foreign policy initiatives are no less vital than This brings us to the issue of Bangladesh requiring a foreign policy initiative best government initiatives, and therefore demand the constitution of newer structures and referred to as cultural diplomacy. The Arab countries host around six million space for maneuverability. Bangladeshi expatriates, accounting for 75 percent of the country's migrant workers. In the fiscal year 2009/10, Bangladesh earned remittances worth USD10.99 billion, of Take the case of Grameen Bank, for instance. That Dr Muhammad Yunus has become which USD7.22 billion was sent by workers in the Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh's global ambassador can easily be judged from the number of foreign the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Libya, and Iran (Daily Star, dignitaries he meets and the international awards he receives every year. Sadly, there is 26 March 2011). But this is also the region that caters to a precise Islamic mazhab no mechanism to honor such persons on a regular basis and put them to use in the (school of thought), namely the Hanbali or Salafi or, as some prefer to call it, service of the state as in the United Nations and some developed countries. Indeed, “Wahhabism,” which is relatively more rigid or inversely less tolerant than the Hanafi much to his credit, microcredit is now a global product of which Bangladesh can surely mazhab or the Sufi tradition found in South Asia and Bangladesh. There is no denying be proud, and there is no reason why this expertise cannot be made into an exportable the fact that the power of petro-dollars and the empowered status of some Arab item for the benefit of Bangladesh and the world. countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, has made the confluence between the Bangladeshi diaspora and Wahhabism all the easier if not deadlier (Ahmed 2009, 4-7). It must be Choices in foreign policy are often limited by constraints and compulsions. One area that quickly added here that there is a substantial difference between Wahhabism and what can be highlighted in this regard is that of the environment and the dire condition of

59 60 Muhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab wrote and preached in his lifetime. In fact, the are to be minimized and choices materialized, then it is imperative that newer orthodox ulema (religious clerics) of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have succeeded institutions be built. Recently, when transiting at Dubai airport, I was told by a host of in reproducing and even exporting their own brand of Islam, often, as seems to be the (presumably) illegal migrants who had been jailed and deported from Saudi Arabia, how case, in the garb of Wahhabism. Only now, following 9/11 and Al-Qaeda's terrorist badly and inefficiently they were all treated by officials of the Bangladesh embassy. As activities in Saudi Arabia, is there a serious realization that things have gone out of hand. several complained, embassy officials who had gotten used to waking up and arriving at As King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia remarked: “Terrorism and criminality would not have work late ended up addressing migrants' problems at around 1300, by which point it was appeared… except for the absence of the principle of tolerance” (cited in Lacey 2009, time for them to have lunch in the prison. Charges of corruption were also raised, as well 271). Since the bulk of the Bangladesh diaspora are either unskilled or semi-skilled, with as the issue of stateless refugees from Myanmar (the Rohingyas) obtaining passports few having a profound knowledge of Islam, there is a tendency among them to fall for the from Bangladesh and giving the country a bad name for their misdemeanors. When intolerant version found in some Arab countries and export and reproduce it at home. misgovernance partners with polarized politics and partisanship, not merit, dictates key This is why there has to be a substantial investment in matters of culture. international appointments, the combination can be deadly. This is as much an issue of quality as it of institution building. It goes without saying that parliamentary bodies Our strength lies not in our being homo politicus (political beings) or homo economicus need to be active in foreign policymaking, and standing committees, if and when (economic beings) but in our being homo culturicus (cultural beings). To provide a required, must hold the officials concerned accountable to public expenses and the regional example, we have not fared well politically, our “democratic culture” has been country's foreign policy goals. marred by violence and divisiveness, but when it comes to “cultural democracy” we have fared much better than many developed democratic societies of the world. Ghalib and The colonial legacy of having to run the foreign policy bureaucracy independently of the Tagore are living testimonies, so are Lata Mangeshkar, Monisha Koirala, and Muttiah public must come to an end. Even institutions such as the Bangladesh Institute of Muralitharan. More specifically, Bangladeshi culture—rooted as it is in the Hanafi, Sufi, International and Strategic Studies must cease to be at the mercy of the government. Bhakti, and Baul traditions, not to mention reproduced in the literary voices of Tagore, Instead, they should raise their own funds, recruit scholars for particular projects, and Nazrul, Jibananda Das, Shamsur Rahman, and countless others—can certainly be build cells to conduct independent and high-quality research, which the government channelized for spreading tolerance not only at home but also regionally and globally. would then have the option to accept, modify, postpone, or reject. But a more qualitative This would of course require mainstreaming cultural diplomacy in Bangladesh's foreign transformation has to occur by linking the Ministry of Foreign Affairs both formally and policy. informally to reputable independent research and academic centers such as the University of Dhaka, the Centre for Policy Dialogue, and Bangladesh Enterprise A beginning could be made by sponsoring Bangladesh Parishod or a Bangladesh Institute. Since ministry officials are transferred every three years, it is important that cultural center in different cities of the world, albeit managed and run by a pool of they are fed by a permanent pool of researchers and scholars, and the most productive officially sanctioned, well-qualified members of the Bangladeshi diaspora. The post- and cost-effective means of doing this would be to link them up regularly with such globalization diaspora is qualitatively different from the old diaspora. The former is institutions. passionately attentive to whatever is taking place in the motherland, from a game of cricket to the making of futchka and roshgollas, from political rumors to the price of Finally, a national civil college (NCC) on the lines of the country's well-reputed National petrol. At the same time, it is significantly familiar with its country of residence, knowing Defence College needs to be built. Any promotion beyond the post of joint secretary or well in many cases personalities close to the government, opinion-making agencies, and (as in the case of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) director general, would require the business houses. If managed efficiently, such councils could become information- candidate to pass out of the college, having attended an intensive certificate program gathering/delivering bodies and informal lobbies, helping Bangladesh gain access to that matches national requirements with the respective bureaucracies. There is also people and things, indeed, far more creatively than possible on the part of formalized need to “gender” foreign policymaking, given that women constitute more than half the diplomatic missions. This would also be cost-effective as many a member of the diaspora country's population. A beginning could certainly be made by making the proposed NCC would be willing to invest both time and money to better the cause of the motherland and a gender-sensitive institution. The NCC could also run mandatory training programs for building a reputation both at home and abroad. Instances of this kind already exist. Both parliamentarians and other civil functionaries, including freshly appointed the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Awami League have, over the years, managed to ambassadors. The college could also recruit researchers on both short- and long-term form international wings, albeit mainly to serve a partisan cause. In the age of bases to advise senior student-bureaucrats and even respective ministries. A foreign globalization and post-territoriality, it is only prudent that the state makes use of policy archive could also be housed in the NCC, which the public could access as part of Bangladeshis, whether residing at home or abroad, with greater efficiency and some its right to information, while “secret and restricted documents” could be made available spark of creativity. to the public after a lapse of 20 years.

In this age of globalization and technological connectivity, if foreign policy compulsions Bangladesh's foreign policy began its journey 40 years ago with the diplomacy of

61 62 recognition, which soon after being accomplished gave way to economic diplomacy. To make the latter meaningful, particularly in the age of globalization, it is now important that Bangladesh embark on a triadic foreign policy formulation encompassing energy diplomacy, climate diplomacy, and cultural diplomacy. This has the potential to benefit not only Bangladesh but the entire region. Blasphemy, the Media, and Dr Imtiaz Ahmed is a professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka in Governor Taseer's Murder Bangladesh. Kiran Hassan

References overnor of Punjab Salmaan Taseer's murder by a religious fanatic was a rude lAhmed, Imtiaz, ed. 2009. Terrorism in the 21st century: Perspectives from Bangladesh. awakening and a tough lesson for anybody in Pakistan who might have wanted Dhaka: University Press Limited. to initiate positive changes in the controversial blasphemy law introduced by lAssociated Press. 2008. Economic fears drive oil below $54: Price of crude down over 60 G General Zia-ul-Haq, the former military dictator who used Islam to legitimize his percent in four months. 19 November. lBanerjee, Sumanta. 2001. Indo-Bangladesh border: Radcliffe's ghost. Economic and Political military rule. But more disturbing was the media's role, which instead of providing a Weekly (Commentary), 5-11 May. proper context and infusing awareness about the law and its misuse, catered to extremist lBhasin, Avtar Singh, ed. 2003. India-Bangladesh relations: Documents – 1971-2002. Vol. 4. passions and misled audiences to believe that Taseer was a blasphemer who deserved to New Delhi: Geetika Publishers. be punished by death. Still worse, the portrayal of his murderer, Mumtaz Qadri (one of lCNN. 2011. Oil – near $106 and rising. http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ (accessed on 25 March 2011). the late governor's guards), as a hero and demands for his acquittal revealed the lDeleuze, Gilles, and Felix Guattari. 1972/2004. Anti-Oedipus: Capitalism and schizophrenia. extremist undercurrents that run through the country. London: Continuum. lInternational Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). 2011. The military balance 2011. London: The controversial case of Aasia Bibi IISS. Aasia Bibi, a Christian laborer and mother of five, was sentenced to death under the lLacey, Robert. 2009. Inside the kingdom: Kings, clerics, modernists, terrorists, and the Blasphemy Law by a court in Nankana Sahib (Punjab) in November 2010. She was the struggle for Saudi Arabia. New York: Viking. first woman to be sentenced to death under the blasphemy law (). lPant, Harsh V. 2010. China rising. In India China: Neighbours strangers, ed. Ira Pande. The allegation against her was that she had blasphemed against the Prophet Noida: HarperCollins. lScahill, Jeremy. 2008. Blackwater: The rise of the world's most powerful mercenary army. Muhammad during a heated debate with fellow Muslim women laborers. A mercy London: Serpent's Tail. petition was prepared by Governor Taseer for President Asif Ali Zardari on 20 November l Stiglitz, Joseph E., and Linda J. Bilmes. 2008. The three trillion dollar war: The true cost of 2010 during his visit to the district jail, where he stated at a press conference that she had the Iraq conflict. London: Penguin Books. been wrongly accused of the crime. Following Taseer's appeal for mercy, a mob rioted outside the Governor House in Lahore, burning his effigy and calling for his death.

The country's religious parties condemned Taseer for criticizing what they saw as “Allah's law.” He responded by stressing that the lone, destitute Christian woman had been wrongly accused of blasphemy. Moreover, he suggested that the blasphemy law needed to be reformed for two reasons:

1. It was used mostly to target marginalized individuals, especially from among minorities, in settling personal vendettas. The strict punishment for blasphemy was the death penalty, even when the evidence was ambiguous. 2. It was a manmade law and like any other law should be open to debate leading to amendment.

Introduced by the British in 1860, the blasphemy laws applied to all religions. Their purpose at the time was to prevent communal conflicts in pre-Partition India. The laws lay dormant for an extended period only to be reborn in a severe and ambiguous form in the 1980s under General Zia's regime. In 1986, Section 295-C legitimized the death penalty for anybody who was accused of disrespecting the prophet of Islam. From the

63 64 1980s onward, there was a rampant increase in reported blasphemy cases. Blasphemy blasphemer, Jagdeesh Kumar, who was brutally murdered by a Muslim mob in became a popular excuse to settle petty scores and most of the accused ended up in jail Karachi's industrial area (Daily Times, 19 April 2008). The Pakistani press was reluctant for long periods. Religious zealots pressured the lower courts and the police to convict to rise above its majoritarian biases, ignoring the persecution of minorities (Ziauddin alleged blasphemers without due process of law. Since it was difficult to prove 2005, 26). The media has been instrumental in boosting the mullah and ignoring the allegations of blasphemy, most cases took a long time to be settled and in almost all cases other side of the story or failing to place such controversial stories in their proper the accused were either acquitted by the superior courts or “punished” by death at the context. hand of extremists. The mullah and the media might not have evolved this nexus, but since the blasphemy At the start of the Aasia/Taseer episode, President Zardari suggested that he might story was a “selling point” for both, they continued to collaborate. The Aasia blasphemy pardon the Christian woman if she had been wrongly convicted. However, on the advice case provided yet another opportunity, this time to the electronic media, to wildly of his legal advisors, he stalled his decision, allowing the superior courts to review the capture the popular imagination through primetime television slots hungry for ratings conviction. According to Declan Walsh, the issue became a bone of contention between in absurd competition. The religious right has been determined to defend the gains it the government and the mullah (Guardian, 6 January 2011). For a month, the Pakistani made in its collaboration with General Zia, who used Islamization as a pretext to prolong media played a highly provocative role by presenting Taseer as an accomplice to his authoritarian regime. General Zia won over the religious right by offering them the blasphemy while ignoring the governor's actual fight for minority rights and his pleas trophies of the blasphemy law and other controversial legislations, such as the Hudood against the misuse of the controversial law. The print media, in particular, joined Ordinance and Qanoon-i-Shahadat order. The successive legislatures who dispensed course with religious parties in a vicious campaign that culminated in the brutal with many amendments brought into the Constitution by successive military dictators assassination of Governor Taseer. On 4 January 2011, Taseer was murdered by one of his could not remove the controversial Islamic provisions under pressure from the religious own security guards in Islamabad. His murderer, the 26-year-old Mumtaz Qadri, fired right and a media playing to their tune. at the governor 29 times, and surrendered himself to the police with a great sense of jubilation, saying: “Salmaan Taseer is a blasphemer and this is the punishment for a Those who have tried to pursue and observe the due process of the law have faced serious blasphemer" (BBC, 4 January 2011). consequences. Lahore High Court judge Justice Arif Iqbal Husain Bhatti, who had acquitted two Christian youths, Salamat Masih and Rehmat Masih on charges of How did the Pakistani media spin the story? blasphemy, was assassinated in 1997. Minorities' voices had been so suffocated that, in The spinning of the Taseer/Aasia story by the media can be viewed as a case of structured May 1998, a Catholic bishop, John Joseph, shot himself dead as a protest. Even General journalism. Structured journalism is necessarily selective and partial and not the (Retd.) Musharraf gave in to the vocal threats of the mullah during his dictatorial regime product of professional codes or skills. Instead, this structuralist model sees coverage as and recalled the directive that would have looked into complaints of misuse of the a product of the news-generating process. News is, by this account, what the blasphemy law (Raja 2008, 80). organization determines it to be. Rather than news events creating news stories, newsrooms create new stories (Street 2001, 157). Taseer's request for the due process of The Urdu newspapers' onslaught against Taseer law was deliberately falsified and launched as a “hot” story, giving it an entirely different Exploiting their mass readership, Pakistan's Urdu newspapers took a lead in pushing the connotation. The newsrooms ignored Aasia Bibi's viewpoint, her declarations that she negative rhetoric against Taseer and played a pivotal role in inciting the people to respected the Prophet, and her plea that she had been wrongly jailed due to false violence. The public reaction, along with TV channels, was initially divided. A group of accusations. Instead, a large segment of the media chose to present Aasia as a civil society protestors in Lahore rallied on 21 November, demanding Aasia's release. Yet blasphemer deserving death who was being protected by a liberal, nonconformist only a few days later, during a more charged public rally in the same city, an Aalmi governor. In addition, television channels covered long, passionate speeches by Tanzim Ahle Sunnat leader, Pir Muhammad Afzal Qadri, appealed to Chief Justice religious and nonreligious leaders inciting Muslims to take revenge on those who dared Iftikhar Chaudhry to take suo moto notice against Governor Taseer for defending the to blaspheme or even call for due process under the given law. “blasphemer” Aasia Bibi. Threats were hurled at government functionaries, parliamentarians, and religious scholars who had expressed their reservations about the Blasphemy: A key political card for the religious parties death sentence awarded to Aasia Bibi (Express Tribune). Most Urdu editorials were In the past, religious parties have played on the emotive issues of blasphemy and the vociferous in crafting Taseer as a blasphemer. He was consistently compared to his finality of the prophethood of Prophet Mohammed to expand their political appeal. In father M. D. Taseer, who had actively participated in the burial of Ghazi Ilam Din, a most cases, the media played into the clergy's hands and created public frenzy. Muslim convicted of murdering a Hindu accused of blasphemy in the 1920s. Repeated Blasphemy cases have always been exploited in Pakistan by the media, which has columns raised the question: How could the son of an aashiq-e-rasool (lover of the ironically ignored cases where members of minorities were persecuted or murdered on prophet) support a blaspheming woman? the false pretext of having committed blasphemy. Criticizing the media, Moeed Pirzada observed that an otherwise robust media ignored the story of an alleged Hindu Numerous articles in the Urdu press were dedicated to discrediting Taseer as having

65 66 brought shame to the Muslim ummah (brotherhood). Keeping its anti-Western She shouted at him thrice and once even waved a secret document in his face in order to rhetoric, a section of the Urdu press deliberately distorted Taseer's actual argument in discredit him publicly. In yet another program, Bokhari went to the extent of admirably favour of re-evaluating the procedure to stop misuse of the blasphemy law. It also comparing Taseer's murderer Taseer Qadri to the “heroic” legacy of Ghazi Ilam Din. blatantly condemned Sherry Rehman, a leading parliamentarian of the ruling , and Asma Jehangir, president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, for Many blame Pakistan's sensationalist news channels for blurring the distinction expressing their dissent over the misuse of the blasphemy law. On the other hand, the between laws and emotions, and whipping up hostility toward Taseer: chiefly among the English press suggested that the law was flawed, but failed to make a considerable mark accused is Meher Bokhari (Omar Waraich in the Independent, 28 January 2011). When because of its limited readership. selective information is given on sensitive issues such as blasphemy, it becomes mingled with certain ideologies where violence is presented as a glorious act (Saad Malik in Television follows “Dunya Today” on Dunya TV, 4 January 2011). Since, as Huma Yusuf writes, the Taseer's preliminary news conference favoring Aasia's release was presented on 20 Pakistani electronic media industry is known for creating an atmosphere of perpetual November 2010 as part of most news segments. crisis, Bohkari is accused by many critics, especially among the new media, of fanning the hysteria over the Taseer/Aasia story that eventually led to the governor's tragic death Javed Chaudhary, in the introduction to his program “Kal Tak” (aired on 22 November (Dawn, 31 January 2011). By crossing all ethical limits, Bokhari led the hysteric 2010 on Express News), attempted to present Taseer as a governor bent on pleasing the misrepresentation of the case for the gutter media to follow, inviting mass critique on Pope, America, and other western countries by supporting a Christian woman. popular blogs. Paradoxically, he demonstrated impartiality in his choice of guests, inviting Shahbaz Bhatti, the federal minister for minorities, Dr Atiq-ur-Rehman, secretary general of Interactive and social media Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), and Tahira Abdullah, a human rights activist, onto his panel. Catching on the atmosphere created by some television channels and most Urdu Although he kept to his provocative style and did not balance his questions, he offered newspapers, the Taseer/Aasia discussion found space in the social media on various space for an equal debate among the guests in his program. Atiq-ur-Rehman defended blogs, Twitter, and Facebook. Anchors like Meher Bokhari were discredited on blogs the blasphemy law and Tahira Abdullah argued that it had been reduced to a political such as Kala Kawa and Café Pyala but hailed on websites such as PkPolitics for the same tool for many political players. Shahbaz Bhatti, by giving facts about the misuse of the show: “Dr Shahid Masood and Kamran Khan are losing their rating. So today I will only law, brought sense and rationality to the discussion. give 1/10 to Kamran Khan and 0/10 to Dr Shahid Masood. I will give Mehar Bokhari 10/10 because she tackled Sulman Taseer very well [sic]” (comment by Shakil Bajwa on Anchors like Najam Sethi can be lauded for sharing facts about emotive topics such as http://pkpolitics.com/2010/11/26/aaj-kamran-khan-kay-saath-26-november- blasphemy. His program on the blasphemy law (aired on 22 November 2010 on Dunya 2010/). TV) was an example of well-rounded research and a balanced debate. Apart from his analysis, his program included a news package on the Aasia Bibi case, a short interview It is possible that innumerable blog posts hailing Bokhari's instigating style and the with Governor Taseer, a brief chronology of the blasphemy law, and contributions by the outspoken Taseer's frankness may have attracted higher ratings. The media was quick to Punjab law minister Rana Sana Ullah and religious scholar Javed Ghamdi. His tone, realize that the audience was not warming up to balanced talk shows, but applauding analysis, and documentation displayed logic and objectivity. Bokhari who was verbalizing prejudices. As expected, the Pakistani media chose to feed hate and incitement to its audience. Subsequently, the governor and his cause suffered On 23 November 2010, Express TV took up the Taseer/Aasia story and provided the at the hands of amplified negative coverage on channels such as Royal TV, Apna, and religious clergy space to denounce the governor. Mubashar Luqman's program “Point Waqt, where numerous budding journalists tried to copy Bokhari's passionate Blank” included Hafiz Butt (Jamaat-e-Islami), Allama Abbas Kamiri, and Mufti Abdul indignation. Kareem (Jamaat-e-Ahlesunnat, Pakistan) as guests. Although Luqman blamed his guests for turning a legal debate into a religious issue, they remained obviously Anchors inciting hatred unconvinced. Journalists usually seek a confrontational stance only to please the crowds. Such journalistic disposition is often associated with an increasingly competitive media One of the most controversial talk shows was conducted by Samaa TV anchor Meher environment. Since drama and confrontation are presumed to be more saleable in the Bokhari on 25 November 2010. Bokhari conducted a satellite interview with Governor news market than considered reportage, journalists tend to make their political Taseer on Aasia Bibi. Riding on a venomous streak, she pushed Taseer into the dock and interviews noteworthy with provocative questions and answers to set the agenda and narrowed her questioning line to discredit him. Most of the content of her program was become the story themselves (McNair 2009, 244). It is the journalist's classic argument borrowed from the Urdu press and belittled him by contrasting his role with that of his that his/her first obligation is to society rather than an individual, motivating him/her to father, M. D. Taseer. Most of the time, Bokhari either put words in his mouth with the be provocative (Gorman 2007, 14).True to this disposition, many Pakistani anchors intention of distorting his claims, or refused to let him finish by rudely cutting him off. think they have every right to criticize the government but will often do so without

67 68 proper research or evidence. Assuming the role of the opposition party, these anchors encouraging the young to emulate him. Sadly, a section of the Pakistani population not give free publicity to different stakeholders and their party agendas, without realizing only supported Qadri but set up a Facebook page saluting him for his “heroic” act, how their declarations will be received by the public (Waqar Gilani in the News, 3 creating space for hate crimes in the new social media. Taseer, on the other hand, was October 2010). Because TV anchors come largely from the Urdu press, they tend to be wrongly portrayed as an apologist for blasphemy by a media that does not abide by its oriented toward Fox News-like rightwing conservatism. Guests are cornered own ethical standards. aggressively and insulted simply because anchors feel that discomfiture inflicted politely is a yardstick of quality (Ahmed 2010, 115). According to Rasul Bakhsh Rais, some Kiran Hassan is currently a doctoral candidate at the Institute of Commonwealth Pakistani anchors appear to be riding high on the power they think they wield over Studies, University of London. Her area of research is the role of the electronic media in society. Assuming that they are the chosen ones with a 'mission' to perform, they post-9/11 Pakistan. question the integrity of anyone they invite (Express Tribune, 31 January 2011). References On the blasphemy debate, the audience preferred Bokhari, thus exposing the media's lAhmed, Khaled. 2006. Religious discourse on TV. In South Asian studies: Media and peace in tendency to play to the biases they inculcate among their audience. Some eminent South Asia, ed. Imtiaz Alam. Lahore: Free Media Foundation. journalists (Alam 2004; Ahmed 2006) had already predicted that the Pakistani media l———. 2010. Guideline for TV anchors. In South Asia Media Monitor. Lahore: South Asia was intentionally developing an audience with a specific extremist mindset, espousing Media Commission. sensationalism and leaving little room for objectivity. The media is likely to become part lAlam Imtiaz. 2005. Journalists beyond frontiers: Rising above divides. Paper presented at of the problem rather than the solution if editorial freedom is compromised by the SAARC Journalists Summit II, South Asian Free Media Association, Dhaka. lGorman, Susanne. 2007. A head-on collision? In An ethical approach to practitioner intervention of vested interests and competing political forces (Alam 2004). Such a research: Managing research ethics, ed. Anne Campbell and Susan Groundwater Smith. problem makes the media a tool in the hands of dominant interests or ideologies. In Oxford: Routledge. order to manufacture consent, the media initially creates illusions, tastes, trends, and lMcNair, Brian. 2009. Journalism and democracy. In The handbook of journalism studies, ed. views, and then becomes a prisoner of its own invention (Alam 2004, 56). The new Karin Wahl-Jorgensen and Thomas Hanitzsch. New York: Routledge. private channels have unwittingly set out to brainwash and cater to the indoctrinated lPalmer, R. John. 1971. Theories of social change and the mass media. Journal of Aesthetic extreme public mind. It is not difficult to infer that Pakistan's extremism comes out of Education 5 (4): 127-149. the public opinion being broadcast by the media (Ahmed 2006, 228). lPeters, Bettina. 2001. Seeking truth and minimizing harm. In Peace building: A field guide, ed. Luc Reychler and Thania Paffenholz. Colorado: Lynne Rienner. Becoming hostage to the defamatory and emotive style that most anchors choose to lRaja, Ahmed Ghalib. 2008. Religious freedom in Pakistan. South Asian Journal 19: 74-81. emulate, anchors look toward a market that is more responsive to sensationalism and lStreet, John. 2001. Mass media, politics and democracy. Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan high drama. As the high pitched conduct of anchors becomes common currency in the Ltd. l media market, it raises serious questions about editorial control, media ethics, and the Ziauddin, M. 2005. Pakistan: Rising above divides. Paper presented at SAARC Journalists Summit II, South Asian Free Media Association, Dhaka. etiquette of a civilized discourse. Journalistic codes of ethics normally place three duties on journalists: (i) to seek the truth, (ii) remain independent, and (iii) minimize harm. Journalists must always seek the truth, but need to carefully consider whether or not to pursue that objective if the consequences are unduly harmful. Ethics begin with sweeping generalities but tend to require specific attention to the local context and particular facts (Peters 2001, 313–315). In the absence of editorial control, anchors are like demigods, spinning stories while pushing certain agendas and settling personal scores. The spirit and essence of journalism is lost amid shouting matches and finger–pointing, leaving little space for ethical journalism and informed discourse.

Conclusion Karl Mannheim argued that the influence of the mass media has great potential for social control. According to Mannheim, the media not only contributes to reshaping expectations and behaviors, but assists in dissipating social myths and ideologies. The media only reinforces existing stereotypes or social myths in order to make the same things mean more or less the same experience to everyone (Palmer 1971, 130-131). Mannheim's theory can be applied to Pakistani society where Taseer's murderer, Mumtaz Qadri, was glorified for committing a heinous crime and, still worse, justified,

69 70 There are other important shades of grey to consider when looking at corruption in India. For one, bribe-givers were sought to be demarcated from bribe-takers in a well- known judgment of the Supreme Court of India in April 1998 relating to 11 members of parliament (MPs) voting in favor of the P. V. Narasimha Rao government after receiving bribes. In July 1993, these MPs ensured the survival of the Narasimha Rao regime, Recent Trends in Corruption in India which did not command a majority in the Lok Sabha or the lower house of India's Paranjoy Guha Thakurta parliament at that juncture. Many perceived the episode, which led to the judgment upholding MPs' immunity from legal proceedings for their actions inside the orruption in India is as old as corruption itself. Why then have successive stories parliament, as one of India's most sordid political corruption scandals. The late Harshad on corruption in high places hogged the headlines in newspapers and magazines, Mehta, a stockbroker, also alleged that he had paid Rs10 million (currently worth Cdetermining the topics tackled by television anchors, paralyzing the parliament, USD0.22 million, assuming an exchange rate of Rs45 to USD1) to former Prime Minister and dominating discourse in political circles? Why is corruption suddenly the favorite Narasimha Rao—an allegation that was never proved in a court of law. Mehta was at the subject of discussion across the length and breadth of the world's largest epicenter of a major financial scandal that was unearthed in the early 1990s. He died in democracy—from the rarified confines of cocktail parties to the bustle of bazaars and prison in 2002. street corners, from the air-conditioned homes of the affluent to the hovels of the proletariat working in factories and farms? Corruption is widespread in India as it is in many other parts of the world—former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi once described it as an international phenomenon long before In New Delhi, the centrist United Progressive Alliance coalition government is headed the word “globalization” became fashionable. And, as in so many different countries, the by the country's grand old party, the Indian National Congress, and led by academic- petty police officer who receives a relatively small bribe for looking the other way turned-technocrat-turned-politician, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, who justifies his/her action not only because he/she is supposedly poorly paid, but also supposedly epitomizes personal integrity. But the perception among large sections of because his/her departmental superiors are supposedly raking in far bigger amounts. Indians is that the prime minister is today surrounded by a group of shady politicians in There is consensus that, if corruption is to be curbed, it has to be tackled at the top—to his party, government, and Council of Ministers. Until recently, one such individual was quote an old saying, a fish rots from its head. The reason that corruption has occupied the former union cabinet minister for communications and information technology, center-stage in Indian politics in recent months is because serious allegations of the Andimuthu Raja, from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a political party with a misappropriation of public money have been leveled against important political leaders base in the south Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Mr Raja had to resign his position in and government functionaries who occupy or had occupied positions of power and November and has been languishing behind bars on charges of corruption since 2 authority. February 2011. This article will discuss his case and the “Great Indian Telecom Scam” a little later. Many believe (and rightly so) that the fountainhead of corruption in India is the manner in which the election campaigns of politicians and political parties are covertly funded. Indians in general—and perhaps Hindus in particular—have a rather nuanced view of According to the Representation of the People Act 1951, the autonomous and corruption. Most Indians readily distinguish between the “more corrupt” and the “less independent Election Commission of India is meant to ensure that the expenditure corrupt”—respectively, as someone who steals a carrot or radish by uprooting the entire incurred by individual candidates (whether at the national or local level) adheres to a plant and someone who steals an eggplant but leaves a few behind on the plant for its “model code of conduct” wherein expenditure limits and heads of spending are clearly owner—and especially between the “corrupt and efficient” and the “corrupt and specified. However, there are glaring loopholes in the law that allow political parties to inefficient.” Consider an example from the telephone conversations of corporate spend unlimited amounts on their candidates' campaigns, as can the latter's friends and lobbyist Niira Radia that were recorded by the Income Tax Department and recently associates. If corporate captains or criminals “invest” in the election of a particular leaked to the media. In one particular conversation, Tarun Das, the former executive person, it is hardly surprising that they would seek to “recover” their incurred expenses head of the Confederation of Indian Industry (one of the most powerful associations of through dubious means after the candidate concerned has become an MP or minister. It businesspersons in the country) described Kamal Nath, the former union minister for is estimated that close to a fourth of all elected MPs in India have criminal records, road transport and highways, as “Mr Fifteen Percent.” In the same conversation, he was although not all have been accused of “heinous” crimes or acts of corruption. heard saying that Mr Nath was preferable to his predecessor, who took as much as his successor but did not ensure that highways were actually built on time. Mr Das, of A number of books and publications examining the nexus among politics, business, and course, apologized profusely to Mr Nath subsequently for the “loose talk” he had crime in India have been published over the decades. In October 1993, former union indulged in during a television interview. home secretary N. N. Vohra (now the governor of Jammu & Kashmir) submitted a detailed report to the Ministry of Home Affairs on the criminalization of politics and the

71 72 “nexus” among criminals, politicians, and bureaucrats. A short excerpt from the report exceptional but similar forms of exploitation and corruption occur in many other parts reads: of India that are well-endowed with natural resources.

In the bigger cities [of India], the main source of income [of Recent surveys conducted by nongovernment organizations (NGOs) such as criminals] relates to real estate—forcibly occupying lands/buildings, Transparency International have found that over half the people spoken to had had first- procuring such properties at cheap rates by forcing out the existing hand experience of having to pay bribes or peddle influence to get their work done in occupants/tenants etc. Over time, the money power thus acquired is government offices. Officials with discretionary powers to award contracts engage in used for building up contacts with bureaucrats and politicians and preferential treatment for selected bidders and display negligence in quality control expansion of activities with impunity. The money power is used to processes. Many government-funded projects, including ones for road building, are develop a network of muscle-power which is also used by the sources of illegal rent-seeking by cabals of contractors with government connections. politicians during elections… The nexus between the criminal gangs, There have been instances of whistleblowers who have sought to expose corruption police, bureaucracy and politicians has come out clearly in various being brutally murdered as have been activists who sought sensitive information under parts of the country. The existing criminal justice system, which was the Right to Information Act 2005. Under the provisions of the Act, any citizen can essentially designed to deal with the individual offences/crimes, is obtain information from a “public authority” (or a government body or “instrumentality unable to deal with the activities of the mafia; the provisions of law in of the state”), which is required to reply expeditiously. Before this law was enacted, the regard economic offences are weak… disclosure of government information in India was governed by a law enacted during colonial times, the Official Secrets Act 1923, among other laws that have now been Corruption is not confined to urban areas. It has become rampant in areas where relaxed. minerals exist. A former chief minister of Jharkhand (a mineral-rich state in eastern India), Madhu Koda, currently faces charges of having amassed huge amounts of money It used to be said that India's so-called socialist policies had created a “license-control and acquired assets disproportionate to known sources of income by, among other raj” that gave huge discretionary powers to politicians and bureaucrats. However, over things, handing out mining leases in a questionable manner. the last two decades, the advent of economic liberalization—the architect of which is current Prime Minister Singh, who was finance minister in the Narasimha Rao I recently produced and directed a documentary film titled Blood and Iron on iron ore government—has not seen a reduction in the incidence of corruption, although mining in and around the Bellary district of Karnataka and the Ananthapur district of liberalization was supposed to have made the working of the Indian economy less Andhra Pradesh in southern India. The promoters of privately owned mining companies discretionary and more transparent (and thereby, less corrupt). On the contrary, it can in Bellary/Ananthapur, who have funded the activities of political leaders in the past, are be argued that corruption has increased in recent years. An example of the ugly today important politicians themselves. Among them are the Gali Reddy brothers, sons underbelly of economic liberalization is the second-generation (2G) spectrum scandal. of a police constable. Two of the brothers hold ministerial positions in the B. S. Yeddyurappa-led Bharatiya Janata Party government in Karnataka. The brothers' The incredibly fast expansion of mobile telecommunications in India has been influence has not diminished despite allegations—by the Karnataka Lokayukta (or accompanied by allegations that particular politicians, in collusion with certain “People's Ombudsman”), the Union Ministry of Mines, and the Central Empowered bureaucrats, deliberately undervalued and misallocated scarce electromagnetic Committee (appointed by the Supreme Court)—that their supporters and associates spectrum or radio airwaves for the benefit of a few privately owned corporate groups. As have indulged in illegal mining. It has also been alleged that the boundary between the mentioned previously, former minister Andimuthu Raja has been placed behind bars on states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh has been trespassed and that forest laws were charges of corruption. The Supreme Court is monitoring how the country's premier violated during mining operations. The Reddy brothers and their associates predictably police agency is investigating criminal charges against Raja and his cronies. After deny these allegations. resisting the formation of an all-party joint parliamentary committee to look into the scandal, the government has conceded this demand of its political opponents. Iron ore mining and exports from the region has immensely enriched a small section of Important individuals—politicians, government officials, and corporate captains—have the population, but there has been no substantial improvement in the lives of the been accused of aiding and abetting the biggest scam of its kind in India that could common people who live in the area. Bellary contributes roughly a fifth of all the iron ore involve as much as Rs1,760 billion or close to USD40 billion, according to an estimate that is extracted in India. In July 2010, Chief Minister Yeddyurappa acknowledged in the made by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, a constitutional authority. state assembly that over 30 million tonnes of iron ore had been illegally exported from Karnataka over a seven-year period between April 2003 and March 2010. The biggest Fifty years after independence and four years after the government gave up its monopoly beneficiary of the export of iron ore “fines” from the region has been China. Windfall over the telecom sector in 1994, that is, in 1997, there were two phones for every ten profits were earned by miners and exporters as the demand for iron ore shot up in the citizens in India. Since 2001, the growth of this sector has been exponential and the run-up to the Beijing Olympics. What has happened in Bellary and Anathapur may be number of telephones in the country has increased more than a hundredfold in less than

73 74 a decade. In recent months, nearly 20 million news subscribers have been added each government, in turn, claims it is doing its best but that it is constrained by rules and month. In less than three years since December 2008, the total number of mobile procedures. At the same time, the country's tax authorities allow stock exchanges to phones has more than doubled from 300 million to 620 million. The Indian telecom receive foreign funds using financial instruments such as “participatory notes” that market is currently the second largest in the world (after China). There are make it difficult to ascertain the antecedents and color of the money coming in. approximately seven telephones for every ten Indians. In certain urban areas, there are more telephones than human beings. But the overall scenario is not uniformly bleak. The Right to Information Act is proving to be an important tool in the hands of sections of the media and civil society activists While the phenomenal growth of telecommunications in India, especially mobile who are fighting against corruption. NGOs have been able to persuade ordinary citizens telephony, is often attributed to deregulation, the other side of the coin is the equally to come out onto the streets to protest against corruption in high places and are massive spread of crony capitalism based on scams and corrupt practices. For more than demanding the enactment of tough new laws, including one to institute an office of an three years, sections of the Indian media and opposition politicians have highlighted empowered anti-corruption functionary called the Lok Pal (or “People's Ombudsman”). how the national exchequer had been deprived of huge amounts of money on account of Such protests are expected to continue. the faulty and arbitrary manner in which the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) had allocated a finite and hence valuable resource, spectrum (used for mobile Despite the fact that more than a few journalists have been compromised, there are telecommunications) to private companies. These scandals are a consequence of others who believe that exposing corruption is one of the most important roles of the regulatory oversight and a deliberate manipulation of policies and norms to favour “fourth estate.” Within the judiciary as well, there are many upright judges who are select privately owned corporate entities. concerned about corruption in their midst and are firmly of the view that the criminal justice system in the country can and should be reformed expeditiously. Corruption is a At the head of this scam is the Dalit (low-caste) face of the DMK party in Tamil Nadu, phenomenon that goes far beyond individual greed. It has much to do with transparency former minister Andimuthu Raja. The media has pointed out how the DoT, under Mr and accountability in the political, economic, and social life of a nation. A small outfit like Raja, cherry-picked the recommendations of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. Wikileaks has shaken the might of the most powerful establishment on the planet, the More importantly, the former minister deliberately ignored recommendations to ensure US government. Democratic uprisings against corrupt regimes in northern Africa and a transparent and fair system of spectrum allocation that had been made from time to western Asia hold the promise of becoming defining moments in contemporary human time not only by senior officials within the DoT but also by officials of the union history. India cannot be isolated from these winds of change. ministries of law and finance and even the . The Rajiv Gandhi regime was haunted by a scandal relating to the purchase of howitzers Mr Raja did not heed the advice given to him. He claimed that he was following or field guns from Swedish armaments manufacturer Bofors. The scandal paralyzed the precedent as well as policy guidelines that had been put in place by the earlier National government between 1987 and 1989. The amounts allegedly involved appear piffling by Democratic Alliance government, and also that he was adhering to the laws of the land. today's standards. Although nothing was conclusively proved in a court of law, India's The questions being raised now are: Why, despite knowing all the facts, did the prime youngest-ever prime minister lost the 1989 general elections to a motley coalition minister, successive finance ministers P. Chidambaram and , and comprising both the Right and Left under the leadership of . their officials not act to stop Mr Raja? What role was played by lobbyists such as Niira The current government headed by Prime Minister Singh has been plagued by one Radia and retired bureaucrats such as Pradip Baijal in influencing the appointment of corruption scandal after another less than a year into its second term. Time will tell how Mr Raja as telecom minister for a second term? Were certain corporate bigwigs victims India's voters will react to corruption in high places when the next general elections take of the 2G spectrum scam or active perpetrators? place.

Corruption has not spared any section of Indian society: the military, the judiciary, and even the media, which is (ironically) supposed to expose corruption. There has been a Paranjoy Guha Thakurta is an independent journalist and educationist. His main host of allegations against the powers-that-be about the way in which facilities for the areas of interest are the working of India's political economy and the media, on which Commonwealth Games were constructed. Top military generals have been accused of he has authored/coauthored several books and directed/produced a number of misappropriating valuable land in the country's commercial capital, Mumbai, in the documentary films. Adarsh Housing Society scandal. There is a plethora of examples, too many to summarize in one essay.

Lal Krishna Advani, a senior leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party and former deputy prime minister, has repeatedly urged the government to take steps to bring back the money that Indians have illegally stashed away in Swiss banks and tax havens. The

75 76 impartial state institutions—the bureaucracy, judicial system, public education system, police, and defense—can lead to ethnic turmoil (Huntington 1969). Sri Lanka's ethnic tension is the result of institutions failing to carry out their roles impartially. The first part of the article deals with the origins of ethnicity and tries to locate it within colonial structuring, the second part focuses on the postcolonial history of ethnicity and The Monolithic State and Ethnicity in Sri Lanka examines how it was strengthened under the independent Sri Lankan state. Vineeth Mathoor Spatial origins of ethnic strife oes Sri Lanka belong to the Sinhalese? The Tamils say it does not. The Fragmented for many decades, the island region of Sri Lanka was finally united by the alternation between “yes” and “no” began as affirmation and negation, turned British in the early nineteenth century. Historically, the British took over Dutch slowly to disobedience and penal codes, and finally to machine guns and possession of the island in 1796 by bringing it under their centralized government. The D colonization of the island was completed by 1815, when the king of Kandy was ousted by suicides. For decades, thousands of people have been forced to flee, their existence questioned, and dignity assaulted. Four decades of violence made millions of people the the Kandyan Convention (Wickramasinghe 2006, 26-27). In 1833, the British victims of torture and violence, reduced to desperate bargaining. Why did the people of established a modern, centralized form of administration by constructing roads, Sri Lanka rebel for four decades and what prompted them to fight on ethnic grounds? railroads, and other transportation systems. Following the colonial structure, the Does the region as a postcolonial (modern) society show the failures of (unfinished) norms, roles, and customs of major social institutions changed profoundly (Sabaratnam modernity? These questions must inevitably bring the socioeconomic development of 2001, 82), and the interest of the British bourgeoisie in the consumption of resources Sri Lanka into question: ethnic identity has to be understood in the wider context of Sri brought about drastic changes to society. Lanka's link to capitalism. However, the experience of postcolonial ethnic tension shows The organization of the colonial system was followed by the establishment of the that institution building in the country has completely failed and the possibility of an plantation industry. The plantation economy began with cinnamon, and was later impartial state is doubtful in Sri Lanka today. replaced by cassia and coffee. Along with colonial plantations, missionaries began to The island of Sri Lanka was left to the native elite by Britain in 1948 (Oberst 1985); settle in the colony and started schools aimed at propagating Christianity (Panagoda subsequent events suggest how things might take shape unless institutions operate 1957). Subsequently, the capitalist system demanded the exploitation of resources in a impartially. While modernity helped the rise and expansion of indigenous forms of systematic and developed method. This was followed by the development of better ethnic nationalism during colonial times (Anderson 1991), the political system failed to transportation facilities along with further colonial interventions in the indigenous carry out any secular nation-building after British occupation came to an end. In other economy. As competition grew, the lack of capital for the plantation industry drove local words, the manifestation of ethnic identity continued even more strongly under the new entrepreneurs to invest in transportation, consumer services, and arrack renting state, and its interpretation of ethnicity complicated the issue. Indeed, the formation of (Perera 1999, 99). All these developments brought the Sinhalese and Tamil population ethnic identity has taken on many complex sociopolitical angularities: we therefore into direct contact with each other for the first time in history (Chattopadhyay and require a coherent understanding of the country's socioeconomic structure, which is Sarkar 2003, 481). This cross-contact was strengthened by the efforts of European and dominated by bourgeois hegemony, to gain a clearer picture of the whole discourse. It comprador bourgeoisie to bring in large numbers of laborers from southern India. seems justifiable to suggest that the often violent demands for Sinhalese domination Modernity had already started to impact society, and the spread of English education (alongside the militarization of civil society) on the one hand and Tamil Eelam (an ethnic after 1833 had produced an English-educated middle class. By the 1880s, the different nation for Sri Lankan Tamils) on the other seem to be the product of mainly three ethnic classes of people—Europeans, Sinhalese, and indigenous and migrant factors: (i) a society with favorable conditions for primitive identity politics, (ii) the Tamils—were forced to acclimatize to the changing social paradigm. The creation of a fascist-oriented activities of Sinhalese-dominated institutions, and (iii) the failure of the special space in the form of the plantation industry gave rise to a patron-client Tamil bourgeoisie in adapting to new situations and absorbing the sentiments of other relationship, often bringing the three ethnic communities of European, Sinhalese, and minorities (Lake and Rothchild 1998, 20). This article attempts to problematize two both native and migrant Tamils into direct economic and social contact. As plantations fundamental aspects of ethnic discourse pertaining to Sri Lanka. These are: were closed entities, the spatial segmentation into plantation space and nonplantation 1. How ethnicity became a dominant discourse in Sri Lankan state formation. space created room for the third ethnic component, the Sinhalese, as peasants, 2. How the institutional failure to adapt to the changing political character of the polity landlords, and others (Sabaratnam 2001, 84). This was followed by the rise of the with a special focus on minorities exacerbated incomplete nation-building. comprador bourgeoisie, who had other complications of caste and traditional social domination. Ceylonese entrepreneurs succeeded in establishing the coconut as a Many scholars have already pointed out that the poly-ethnic instability in supposedly plantation crop, with European entrepreneurs never exceeding 5 percent of the total

77 78 (Perera 1999, 100). Over time, the settlement of migrant Tamils in plantation areas was dominance across Sri Lanka. Anxiety over the extermination of the Sinhalese language regarded with suspicion by the Sinhalese in whose areas the plantations had been set up. and culture created the notion that the Sinhalese might become an 'endangered species' Moreover, the establishment of the plantation industry created inconsistencies in in Sri Lanka. This anxiety was further strengthened by the Sinhalese being conscious of traditional social statuses and led to inter-caste and intra-ethnic rivalry (Roberts 1982, the fact that they were becoming a weak minority vis-à-vis the Tamils of southern India 90). and Sri Lanka taken together (de Silva 1997). From such anxieties, the idea of nation- building mutated into a defense of Sinhalese culture. The social, political, and economic As we have already mentioned, by the turn of the late nineteenth century, the anxiety policies of the nation slowly adopted an ethnic dimension, and development was carried about ethnic domination slowly started to spread across linguistic and religious barriers out on a partisan basis. in Sri Lankan society. Once the new segments of society—local bourgeoisie, educated middle class, and religious elite—had been crystallized, they sought new alternatives in Institutions and the ethnic war dance the changing sociopolitical formation. Sinhalese and Tamil cooperation with the We have seen how ethnicity was created as part of the colonial discourse and the colonial administration had already begun as early as the 1830s with the establishment methods by which ethnic arguments were strengthened. Now we focus on the of the executive and legislative councils (Perera 1999, 100). In pursuance of the postcolonial scenario, the activities of the partial state, and its role in aggravating the Colebrook-Cameroon Commission recommendations for separate administration and issue. Once the colonial state came to an end, the responsibility for nation building the introduction of legislative representation along ethnic and communal lines, the naturally devolved to the local elite, consisting of the comprador bourgeoisie and colonial government kept ethnic differences alive and presented the growth of an all- political, administrative, and religious elite. First, the postcolonial elite did not accept all island political identity (Sabaratnam 2001, 528). colonial subjects as nationals and discriminated among the population (Perera 1999, 102). Second, considering the self-sufficient development pattern, the large labor force As colonialism proceeded, the period witnessed the rise of cultural and religious was projected as a burden on the nation's development and told to leave the country for movements, which often appealed to ethnic and religious assertions. A close reading of its general prosperity. The comprador bourgeoisie came to an understanding with the such revivalist movements suggests that they were motivated by anxieties over the religious elite and took the alliance as an opportunity to bring the Tamil economy under resources absorbed from the land (Jayawardane 1983) rather than any cultural control. Slowly, anxieties about culture, language, and religion were expressed in public anxieties. Attempts have been made to argue that the development of religious discourses, with the print media playing a major role in the process. nationalism was a form of opposition to the rigid global system (Friedland 1999). The argument describing the Buddhist revivalist movement as a challenge to the colonial Following the creation of a public space favorable to religious and cultural sentiments, system must be read within the context of Berkwitz's (2008) assertion that the the Buddhist Sangha demanded religious teaching for Sinhalese children attending development of a revivalist movement speaking for Buddhist ideals helped the Roman Catholic and Protestant missionary Schools (Wilson 1974, 19). The Sangha institutionalization of Sinhalese nationalism in the pre-independent era. It is argued argued that colonial education was aimed at creating servants for the administration that, following the revivalist movement of Anngarika Dharmapla, the nineteenth- and, as it grew haphazardly, it lacked any social or cultural richness (Panagoda 1957). century Buddhist monk, the development of monastic politics split into two different This argument was put forward to control the influence of the Christian faith among the directions. While one version emphasized the need for social, cultural, and economic Sinhalese population. The state, instead of keeping its constitutional position as a assertion, the other argued for a political path to ease the deprivation of the Sinhalese secular mechanism, supported Buddhist claims. In a second move, perhaps catering to population (Berkwitz 2008). For the Sinhalese, this sentiment of 'otherness' was the the majority of the Sinhalese population, Sinhalese members of parliament decided to platform from which to consider all non-Sinhalese people, including the Moors make a radical move and pronounce Sinhala as the only official language, denying Tamil (Muslims) and Indian traders as outsiders (Chattopadhyay and Sarkar 2003, 484). claims (Sahadevan and DeVotta 2006, 5). This provoked the Tamils, who remembered Subsequently, Sinhalese nationalism has been equated with Sri Lankan nationalism, the Swabhasha movement organised by the Sinhalese and Tamils together to overturn and a form of theocratic state has been established over time. the influence of English in the country. In 1956, the Bandaranaike-led Mahajana Eksath Peramuna government came to power and adopted a Sinhala-only policy. This created During the colonial period, the Sinhalese complained that the British state was panic among non-Sinhala speaking people, especially among the Tamils who saw the sympathetic to the Tamils so that they could have sway over the land and its state's attitude as an attempt to annihilate Tamil culture. Headed by the Tamil Federal administration. Historically, the Tamils were better able to absorb themselves into the Party, they demonstrated against the Sinhala-only policy, followed by anti-Tamil riots in administrative machinery than their Sinhalese counterparts, and this often resulted in the country (Vittachi 1958, 20). the marginalization of the majority Sinhalese (Sahadevan and DeVotta 2006, 12). Separatism was further manifested by establishing ethnic clubs for sports and other Following the assassination of Solomon Bandaranaike by a Buddhist monk, his widow, recreational activities at the end of the colonial period. After 1948, mounting tensions Sirimavo Bandaranaike, was elected to head the government. Of the many controversial promoted by the Buddhist Sangha led to claims and counter-claims over the rights of policies that her government had adopted, the Language of the Court Bill, which

79 80 declared Sinhala the official language of the courts, and the Sinhala-only policy became period has been widely used to represent ethnic identity in Sri Lanka. As Rogers (1994) the foundation stones of ethnic tensions in the postcolonial era (Sahadevan and DeVotta argues, the ethnic identity of today is in complete contrast to what it was understood as 2006, 17). The Tamil Federal Party organized satyagraha (nonviolent) protests across in the eighteenth century, and pre-modern Sinhala had no words to distinguish between the country in 1961, but the government came down heavily on the protesting Tamils. A differences in caste, religion, or ethnicity. Subsequently, what followed was competition state of emergency was declared and Tamil leaders arrested. The emergency allowed the by both the Sinhalese and Tamils to fix ownership over their motherland. Mythical military free reign to operate in Tamil areas. Striking at Tamil sentiments further, the characters, heroes, and protagonists were pushed into the social mind; stories, stone state supported the nationalization of a majority of schools in 1960/61. This further carvings, canons, and historical artifacts became precious and were reinterpreted to alienated minorities from the state and suspicion developed between the communities. support the separatist identity. Silently, the identity of the whole population was The state's education policy restricted Tamil students' admission to universities remade, predetermined as either Sinhalese or Tamil. The Sinhalese equated their ethnic (Chattopadhyay and Sarkar 2003, 507). As a result, the percentage of Tamil students nationalism with Sri Lankan nationalism (Brow 1990), citing the chivalry of ancient declined gradually between 1970 and 1975, from 40.8 to 13.2 percent in engineering and Sinhalese kings. Protecting Buddhist teachings became the duty of the far-off Sri Lankan from 37 to 20 percent in medicine. Further, the implementation of a quota system and state (Government of Sri Lanka 1972, 4) and every Sinhalese citizen. Subsequently, the standardization weakened access to education for the Tamil population. A district quota Tamils realized the value of their ancestral chivalry. Sri Lankan kings of the sixth, system was implemented in 1973, according to which admission to universities was seventh, and twelfth centuries faced their enemy once more but, this time, with machine determined by a quota based on population. After 1948, the old system of schooling was guns, grenades, and mines. Statues and idols were reinstated and gods and patrons abolished and Sinhalese and Tamil children started attending separate schools. The reincarnated for ethnic purposes. The most comical aspect of this ethnic chauvinism was government facilitated the development of Sinhala schools but denied the same for that the Sri Lankan state, with its western ethics of nation building, actively participated Tamil schools. Consequently, the number of Tamil schools recorded declined and in majority claims and left behind the western baggage of secular democracy. Sinhalese schools marked an increase in the following years (Chattopadhyay and Sarkar 2003, 511). The grand narrative of an ethnic war dance covers up the development of Sri Lanka's marginalized role as a market. International capital used the platform to support the Observing the rise of ethnic sentiments and its influence on the country's youth trade of legal and illegal commodities. Through official and unofficial records, the population, the state decided to curb this by supporting a one-sided policy of mixing the sentiments of groups including Sinhalese chauvinists, Buddhist Sangha, LTTE, the Sri two ethnic communities. For the postcolonial government, colonization was a necessary Lankan state, and international nongovernment organizations received great attention. step to achieve their national goals and self-sufficiency. Post-independence, state But the narrative of ethnic war completely negated the economic exploitation of support for the internal migration of Sinhalese to Tamil areas created impassioned innocent people and natural resources. As Gamage (2009) argues, the political political rivalry in the region. The state supported Sinhalese migration from the heavily discourse changed from imperialism and colonialism in the 1940s to development and populated wet zone of the southwest to the sparsely populated north-central, underdevelopment in the 1960s to 1980s and then to ethnic conflict. The discourse also northeastern, and eastern dry zone regions. This migration had political consequences ignored how it made people indirect participants and victims of the world market on the and the Tamils realized that the movement was a deliberate policy on the part of the pretext of ethnic tension. Sinhalese state to control Tamil-dominated areas (Kearney 1978). Due to Sinhalese colonization, shifts in the ethnic composition of the northern and eastern Vineeth Mathoor is a research scholar at the Centre for Historical Studies at areas—considered the traditional ethnic homeland of Tamils—have taken place. For Jawaharlal Nehru University in India. instance, places like Mannar, Trincomale, and Batticaloa have heavy Sinhalese proportions. This movement continued for a long time, despite Tamil dissent. In a bid to References define ethnic-oriented nationalism, the state vehemently denied the pivotal role played lAnderson, Benedict. 1991. Imagined communities. London: Verso. l by Sri Lankan Tamils in creating national consciousness in the country during the Berkwitz, Stephen C. 2008. Resisting the global in Buddhist nationalism: Venerable Soma's colonial period. Tamil complaints about scarcity of funding and underdevelopment discourse of decline and reform. Journal of Asian Studies 67 (1): 75-106. lBrow, James. 1990. The incorporation of a marginal community within the Sinhalese nation. were mocked at the government level, and the Tamils slowly started to realize their Anthropological Quarterly 63 (1): 7-17. unofficial second-grade citizenship in their own motherland. lChattopadhyay, H. P., and S. K. Sarkar, eds. 2003. Ethnic composition and crisis in South Asia. New Delhi: Global Vision Publishing House. Conclusion lDe Silva, K. M. 1997. Sri Lanka: Surviving ethnic strife. Journal of Democracy 8 (1): 97-111. Sri Lanka is an example that shows how different identities of ethnicity or culture have lFriedland, Roger. 1999. When gods walk in history: The institutional politics of religious been constructed, and made part of the discourse concerning the nation during nationalism. International Sociology 14 (3): 301-319. colonialization. Scholars have already shown that identities change according to spatial- lGamage, Siri. 2009. Economic liberalization, changes in governance structure and ethnic sociopolitical structures. A set of identities that gained prominence in the later colonial conflict in Sri Lanka. Journal of Contemporary Asia 39 (2): 247-261.

81 82 lGovernment of Sri Lanka. 1972. The constitution of Sri Lanka. Colombo: Government Press. lHuntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political order in changing societies. New Haven: Yale University Press. lJayawardane, Kumari. 1983. Aspects of class and ethnic consciousness in Sri Lanka. Development and Change 14 (1): 1-18. lKearney, Robert N. 1978. Language and the rise of Tamil separatism in Sri Lanka. Asian Survey 18 (May): 521-534. The Governance Deficit in Kashmir (1947–90) lLake, David A., and Donald Rothchild. 1998. Spreading fear: The genesis of transnational Aijaz Ashraf Wani ethnic conflict. In The international spread of ethnic conflict: Fear, diffusion and escalation, ed. David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild. Princeton, NJ: Press. ne of the greatest tragedies of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has been the fact that lOberst, Robert. 1985. Democracy and the persistence of westernized elite dominance in Sri the state has had to face a long history of mis-governance. Except for very brief Lanka. Asian Survey 25 (7): 760-772. Operiods in between, the pages of J&K history are full of miseries people had to lPanagoda, D. F. E. 1957. Ceylon, a nation seeking unity in diversity. Phi Delta Kappan 39 (3): suffer on account of the authoritarian and dictatorial style of rule that the state adopted. 151-155. What is, however, ironical is the fact that even after the installation of a popular lPerera, Nihal. 1999. Decolonizing Ceylon: Colonialism, nationalism, and the politics of space government after 1947 the mis-governance continued unabated with the full knowledge in Sri Lanka. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. and even support of the central government. One of the disastrous results of this tragic lRoberts, Michael. 1982. Caste conflict and elite formation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. history of mis-rule has been the emergence of militancy in Kashmir. The paper tries to lRogers, John D. 1994. Post-orientalism and the interpretation of premodern and modern highlight the major governance problems that the state faced from 1947 onwards which political identities: The case of Sri Lanka. Journal of Asian Studies 53 (1): 10-23. remained unaddressed by the successive governments. lSabaratnam, Lakshmanan. 2001. Ethnic attachment in Sri Lanka: Social change and cultural continuity. New York: Palgrave. The history of governance in Kashmir is a long history of mis-governance punctuated by lSahadevan, P., and Neil DeVotta. 2006. Politics of conflict and peace in Sri Lanka. New Delhi: brief intermittent periods of good governance within a broader framework of continuity. Manak. The bureaucracy of the ancient period, known as Kayasthas, has been portrayed by lVittachi, Tarzie. 1958. Emergency '58: The story of the Ceylon race riots. London: Andre Ksemendra (11th century) and Kalhana (12th century) as thoroughly corrupt, atrocious, Deutsch Limited. fraudulent and merciless. Here is Kalhana's portrayal of the rapacity of the Kayasthas. lWickramasinghe, Nira. 2006. Sri Lanka in the modern age: A history of contested identities. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press. Indeed, the officials (kayasthas) also are plagues for the people, and lWilson, A. Jayaratnam. 1974. Politics in Sri Lanka. London: Macmillan. not only cholera, colic and exhaustion, rapidly destroying everybody. The crab kills its father, and the white ant destroys her mother but the ungrateful kayastha, when he has become powerful, destroys everything (Kalhana 1979, Book 8).

There was an unholy alliance between the rulers and the vocal and powerful sections of society, namely, Damaras (feudal lords), Brahmans and Kayasthas who collaborated to appropriate the resources of the country and fleec the people (see Drabu 1986). This situation proved harmful to the state as it created economic and political crises, made the state dependent upon a small section of the people and alienated the masses which ultimately threw the country into a welter of chaos leading to foreign invasions and ultimately the fall of the Hindu rule (Kalhana 1979, Books 5-8). Yet in this predominantly feudal system of governance we encounter brief spells of good governance such as the rule of Avantivarman (855-885) who showed remarkable interest in promoting knowledge and in making the country self sufficient in food by digging a network of canals and controlling the inundations (Kalhana 1979, Book 6). Similarly, Sultan Zain-al-Abidin's reign (1420-1470) is especially known for all-round progress which presents a puzzle even to a modern mind (see Zutshi 1976). In fact, according to the Sanskrit chronicler of the time, Jonaraja, “Zain-al-Abidin performed what was beyond the power of the past sovereigns and what will be beyond the ability of

83 84 the future kings” (Jonaraja 1898, 90). Not surprisingly, therefore, he is famously known 1944 by issuing the famous “Naya Kashmir Manifesto” It was a draft constitution for the as “Badshah” (the greatest king) in Kashmir (Zutshi 1976). However, the general rule in future Kashmir promising a democratic and decentralized polity besides a socialist Kashmir has been mal-administration, authoritarianism and mis-governance. mode of production. In fact it made breathtaking promises to take all conceivable steps to eradicate oppression, discrimination, disease and illiteracy. When the National The post 1947 governance system of J&K is characterized by two mutually opposite Conference came to power, the Naya Kashmir Manifesto became its political Bible, a developments which ended up making Kashmir a smoldering volcano. In response to theory of governance and an unwritten constitution. When the constitution of Jammu the pressures of the times, successive governments took drastic measures to improve the and Kashmir was adopted on 17 November 1956, the Naya Kashmir Manifesto became economic, social and cultural conditions of the people of the state. However, the period the basis of the Directive Principles of State Policy. is simultaneously underlined by serious infirmities in governance namely denial of democracy, political and bureaucratic corruption, misuse of discretionary powers, lack Many developments took place during 1947-1953 when the state was under the of strong institutionalization of the system of appointments, promotions, contracts and leadership of Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah who was appointed head of the Emergency licenses, political and bureaucratic interference in all the departments including the Administration on 10 October 1947 and the prime minister of the interim government in Public Service Commission (PSC), district employment boards and the lately created 1948. Monarchy came to an end, and in its stead self rule was established. The elections State Subordinate Recruitment Board (SSRB), nepotism and favoritism and the absence of the Constituent Assembly affirmed Kashmir's autonomy on all matters except of accountability, transparency and right to information. The misuse of power widened defense, foreign affairs and communication. The state got a parallel president, a parallel the gulf between the rich and the poor besides suppressing the full economic potential of flag and a parallel constitution. The concept of planned development was introduced in the state. The unemployment problem posed an unprecedented challenge creating a the state along with other states in 1951. However, the most revolutionary step was the frustrated youth whose rage was further fueled by the system that guaranteed survival of enactment of the Big Landed Estates Abolition Act, 1950 by virtue of which an individual the fittest. To add insult to injury, the state of J&K was selectively marked out as being was entitled to own not more than 182 kanals (22.75 acres) of land. Accordingly as many unfit for democracy. The paper focuses on these two antipodal phenomena to establish as 9,000 odd landowners were expropriated from 183,000 hectares of land and out of the thesis that the political crisis in Kashmir is the outcome of the binary opposition this 94,000 hectares of land were transferred in ownership rights to cultivating peasants between the two post-1947 occurrences—development and mis-governance. free of any encumbrances. By 1953 about 153,339 tillers were benefitted by this revolutionary measure. However, orchards were left out of the ceiling. Another In 1947 J&K was one of the least developed states, which was reflected in abysmal mass important step to improve the lot of the common peasantry was the enactment of poverty, deprivation, hunger, disease and ignorance. Even in 1950 the state had a per Kashmir Distressed Debtors Act of 1950 which sought to alleviate agrarian capita income of Rs208 (at 1960/61 prices) (Government of India 1998, 3). The rate of indebtedness. Special attention was paid to the development of education. The state literacy was five percent (Government of India 1951). Agriculture, which was the established its first university in November 1948; 35 percent of the budget was spent on dominant sector, was stagnant. Industrial development was almost negligible. education. The Muslim representation on the gazetted positions rose from 30 percent in Infrastructural bottlenecks crippled the state economy and accentuated the poverty 1947 to 50 percent in 1953. For the first time since 1819 the state had a Muslim inspector syndrome. Power was concentrated in the hands of the ruler and his councilors, general of police, a Muslim accountant general and a sizeable number of local Muslims legislature being still a nominal institution. It was a raj of jagirdars (landowners), were appointed as high police officials and deputy commissioners. And with the chakdars (tenants) and maufidars who constituted the bureaucracy and the religious establishment of the National Militia, thousands of Kashmiri-speaking Muslims got to class; the dominant majority of these privileged right holders, even the lower rungs of serve in the military for the first time after 100 years of deprivation (Wani 1993). bureaucracy, were monopolized by the non-Muslims—the privileged people of the Dogra state. The Muslims in the valley and lower castes in Jammu were mainly peasants, The twilight of 1953 saw the infamous dismissal of Sheikh's government and the and a large section comprised of the tenants of absentee upper caste Hindu jagirdars, installation of Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad as prime minister of Jammu and Kashmir. In chakdars and maufidars. Corruption and nepotism were so rampant that the poor could order to wean away the masses from the camp of the popular leader, Sheikh Abdulah hardly dream of improving their wretched position. The common people lived in such (who was dismissed for not compromising on Kashmir's special position), and to appalling poverty that it was not possible for them to manage the few annas (cents) integrate the Kashmiris constitutionally as well as emotionally with India, the central which primary and secondary education required. The state terrorism was so wanton government backed Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad in ushering in an era of generosity and that the sight of a policeperson would send cold shivers down the backs of the people, popularity. Thus with the accession of Bakshi began an era of populist measures as well especially in rural areas. The slaughter of cows, buffaloes or ox by the famine stricken as the saga of infrastructural development with full support from the centre. people would invite the wrath of the corrupt and communal police. Immediately after taking over the reigns of the state, Bakshi issued orders to abolish mujwaza (compulsory procurement of food grains for feeding urban people), The program of a revolutionary reconstruction of the state to end despotic, feudal and introduced a subsidized ration system in the towns, subsidies on the sale price of salt, sectarian rule was articulated by the leadership of the freedom movement as early as raised the salaries and wages of all government servants and laborers, remitted co-

85 86 operative debts, abolished the monopoly of co-operatives and made education free up to those of Social Welfare, J&K Minerals limited, J&K Academy of Art, Culture and graduation and compulsory up to the primary classes (Saraf 1977). These measures won Languages, J&K Public Service Commission and Block Development Departments were popular support for Bakshi. established. The Hydro Electric Power House was established at Gandarbal, the first cement factory was commissioned at Wayan, and the Kashmir and Tourist Reception It should be mentioned that for the rural poor peasantry, mujwazah was a great source Centre was constructed at a cost of Rs1 million. It was also during the Bakshi regime that of tyranny not simply because they had to part with a substantial share of their produce Banihal tunnel was constructed to improve Jammu's access to the rest of India. The J&K on cheap rates to fend for the urban people, but more so because in view of the mono- High Court was brought at par with other high courts of India. In 1956 the Second Five crop economy of Kashmir, small holdings and extremely low per unit productivity, the Year Plan of Rs312.02 million was launched (Government of India 1998, 280-365). As a surplus production was unknown among the common peasantry of Kashmir. Their own result of the developmental measures employment in government, industries went up produce fulfilled their food needs for not more than six to seven months. This is the from 6,500 in 1947/48 to 9,000 in 1953/54 and 14,000 in 1957/58. The average earnings reason the state had to use force for procuring grains from the peasantry which had per worker per month increased from Rs29 to Rs77 in ten years. made Sheikh's agrarian reforms a half measure. Bakshi's measure was a great relief to the peasantry—no less than the abolition of feudalism. In fact Walter Lawrence had In addition to taking the aforementioned steps to win peace, which was disturbed on protested in the late 19th century against the state policy of procuring cheap grains from account of the incarceration of Sheikh Abdullah and his associates, and to earn public the peasantry through coercive means for feeding the idle urbanites on low rates (Saraf support for India through his person, Bakshi also sought to convert the separatist public 1977). However he could not succeed in pushing through his recommendation of mentality. Machiavelli, in his political treatise “The Prince” advised the ruler to organize abolishing the system as the maharaja did not want to antagonize the vocal urban fairs and festivals in order to divert the attention of people from pressing political issues. population. Sheikh, of course, did not want to oppress the peasantry but his policy of Taking leaf out of Machiavelli's book, Bakshi artfully developed the idea of introducing a making Kashmir self-reliant forced him to maintain the system though the prices were number of new festivals namely Jashn-i-Kashmir, Jashn-i-Bahar, Shab-i-Nishat and marginally increased. However, without giving any worthwhile relief to the peasantry Shab-i-Shalimar to keep the people busy with varied sources of entertainment (Saraf Sheikh's policy only antagonized the urban population. During the period of Abdullah 1977). It is also noteworthy that during his period many cinemas were established in the price of one trakh (six sers) of rice was fixed at Rs7. Bakshi reduced it to Rs1, thus Srinagar. The fundamental purpose behind organizing such fairs and festivals was to subsidizing the ration to the extent of 75 percent of its cost (Saraf 1977). Therefore while divert the attention of the people from politically charged atmosphere in the state. Sheikh came to be contemptuously called as âlu bab (father of potatoes), Bakshi was Sheikh Abdullah, the most popular leader, was in prison and very crucial political elevated to the position of bata bab (father of rice, the staple food of Kashmiris). developments were taking shape on the Kashmir issue at regional and international Similarly salt was an indispensable necessity of the people—both rich and poor; levels. however, the rising cost of salt was always a cause of concern for the poor. Bakshi understood the political significance of reducing its cost. The remission of co-operative Many constitutional and administrative measures were also taken to bring Kashmir debts scaled down the rural indebtedness from Rs20 million to Rs8.6 million. Bakshi gradually but surely into the Indian constitutional orbit. Of them mention may be made also redressed one of the common grievances when he broke the monopoly of co- of the application of fundamental rights, extension of jurisdiction of the Supreme Court operatives which had become a “symbol of tyranny.” The political impact of substantial of India, transfer of services to the Union List, extension of the authority of the Election enhancement of the salary and wages of the government employees and daily wagers is Commission of India and Auditor General of India, approval by the Planning easy to guess. The same is true of making education free up to graduation if one considers Commission of state development programs, financial allocations from the centre, that the abject poverty of the masses was the serious impediment in the way of abolition of the custom barrier, and integration of services and association of the state popularizing education. with the northern zone council. Jammu and Srinagar airports were also handed over by the state government to Union Civil Aviation authorities. Geological Survey of India and Besides these measures, large sums were spent on agricultural and rural development, Archaeological Survey of India also opened their offices in Srinagar. After the irrigation and power, industry, transport and social services. J&K's First Five Year Plan resignation of Bakshi in October 1963, six chief ministers ruled Kashmir up to the break of Rs115.171 million was launched in 1951. According to Planning Commission's figures, out of militancy in 1989 with a brief intermittent of governor's rule. These were Shamas- Rs482 million were spent on agriculture and rural development, Rs4.894 billion on ud-Din (October 1963-February 1964), G. M. Sadiq (1964-1971), Sayyed Mir Qasim irrigation and power, Rs728 million on industry, Rs2.357 billion on transport and (1971-1975), Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah (1975-1982), Farooq Abdullah (April 1983- Rs1.757 billion on social services during the first Five Year Plan. Those businesses July 1984), G. M. Shah (July 1984-March 1986), Governor's Rule (March 1986- dealing with tourist trade were promoted by providing necessary support. Also, it was November1986), Farooq Abdullah (1987-1990). During these 27 years considerable during Bakshi's tenure as prime minister that the first engineering college, Regional development was made in all sectors which is clear from the overall and sector-wise plan Engineering College (Srinagar), and the first medical college, Government Medical outlay and expenditure and the indicators of development. Clearly, the thrust of the state College (Srinagar), Agricultural Institute (Pampore), several new departments namely development plans has been the creation of adequate infrastructure like power,

87 88 transport and provision of social and community services, together with promoting from coming to such a pass. To have a proper appreciation of the nature of the polity agriculture, industry, trade, tourism and above all human resource to overcome the Kashmir witnessed since 1947, and to know how far Kashmir approximated democratic growing problem of unemployment and to increase per capita income. norms, it is necessary to briefly refer to the broad features of democracy. According to the leading scholars of different ideological predilections (see Linz 1978; Dahl 1982, In order to achieve uniform development and especially to improve the conditions of the 1989; Schmitter and Karl 1993), the minimal criteria of democracy are: rural areas and the weaker and marginalized sections, the state government took various measures. The State of Jammu and Kashmir has the honor of being the pioneer for lIt is a government elected by the people through updated procedures and norms. bringing the process of decentralization at the district level with the introduction of lThe government is accountable for its actions. Single Line Administration in 1976 through the constitution of District Development lIt follows specific procedural norms and respects civic rights. Boards (see Aivalli 1998; Government of India 1998, 280-281). According to this unique lPolicy-making process is essentially decentralized as it is characterized by concept of decentralized planning, district plans are being prepared after the state bargaining between competing autonomous groups. budget is voted in the assembly. lA functioning political opposition is essential to democracy. In fact no regime could be minimally democratic without institutionalized oppositions. In order to improve the lot of the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and backward class the policy lThe polity must be self governing; it must be able to act independently of constraints of reservation in state services was initiated in 1968, when the government allocated of 5 imposed by some overarching political system or actors outside its territorial percent and 2 percent in state services for SCs and the residents of Ladakh respectively. domain. In 1970 the policy received a major fillip when the government announced 8 percent reservation for SCs and 42 percent for backward classes including 2 percent for Ladakhis While going through the political history of Kashmir from 1947 onwards one is stunned in state services (Government of India 1998, 324-328). Carved out of the erstwhile State to see that the Jammu and Kashmir state hardly possessed even a single criterion of the Dehat Sudhar Department in 1960, the Social Welfare Department is an agency which aforementioned requirements of democratic governance. What is sadder is that the endeavors to uplift the socio-economic conditions of under privileged sections of the denial of democracy in J&K was the centre sponsored agenda translated into practice society. In October 1989, Ladakh was granted Scheduled Tribes status; and in 1991 two through what Sumantra Bose calls “the cliental state governments.” The policy of ruling ethnic groups, Gujjars and Bakarwals were also declared as Scheduled Tribe in the state. J&K though undemocratic means was initiated by the mass based political party of Kashmir, the National Conference (NC), after it assumed power in 1947 with the full Besides making provision for financial aid to widows and destitute women and support of the central government. The National Conference which was in the forefront providing training and monetary help to poor women to enable them to fend for of the struggle for freedom against the autocratic, feudal and sectarian rule of the themselves, the state paid due attention to women's education by opening separate Dogras, was, however, inspired by the Jacobin model of popular democracy which schools and colleges for them. To empower women, 10 percent of jobs were reserved for “tends to be in tension with liberal democratic norms of political pluralism, women in government service in 1976. Subsequently 50 percent of seats were earmarked accountability of those in power and tolerance of dissent and opposition” (Bose 2003, for women in government medical college alongside opening a women's Polytechnic 27). In fact, the NC demonstrated its intolerance of opposition even during the days of College. the freedom movement. By using its might the NC leadership suppressed its opposition Flaws in governance especially in Srinagar at the hands of the followers of Moulvi Yusuf Shah, Notwithstanding that the State of J&K witnessed a marvelous development in many contemptuously called Bakras; Sheikh even, according to Bazaz, led the onslaught respects, the fact remains that the system of governance was marred by certain grave movement against them with a hockey stick in his hand on the day of Eid (Bazaz 1954, infirmities on account of which the targeted results could not be adequately achieved on 185). The same intolerance was shown against the Socialist Party and the Kissan the one hand, and, on the other, Kashmir became a smoldering volcano as a result of Movement (Bazaz 1954, 208-238). When any NC leader was associated with the development that generated consciousness against the flawed system which by itself administration either as a non-official or official member s/he showed open refused to change with the times and to respond to the new challenges. The limitations in discrimination against political opponents even if it was a question of distributing fuel the governance system are discussed below rations (Bazaz 1954, 187). Yet, for reasons of representing the basic urges of the people and showing consistency in its stand, the people were dreaming of a rosy future for Denial of democracy themselves once the shakhsi raj (autocratic rule) would come to an end and the awami Ever since the militancy broke out in Kashmir different scholars have been engaged in hakumat (democracy) under Sheikh would be installed. In fact they were not merely searching for the factors that have accounted for this unprecedented radicalization of dreaming, but were made to believe it by the issuance of Naya Kashmir Manifesto1 and politics in the history of the state (see Puri 1993; Ganguly 1997; Bose 1997, 2003). While the political education imparted by the NC leadership (see Fazli 1980, 129-131).2 Also, many factors have been put forth to explain this crisis, political scientists hold the view the national poet, Mahjoor appealingly versified the rosy future making it an effective that had democracy been given a chance in Kashmir the situation would have been saved tool of mass mobilization (Mahjoor 1988).

89 90 Her radiance on us. However, notwithstanding the fact that the National Conference government In western climes Freedom comes accomplished the big task of abolishing the feudal system by giving land to the tiller3 With a shower of light and grace, after it assumed the reins of the government in 1947, the deeply authoritarian streak in But dry, sterile thunder is all the NC's emancipation movement manifested itself more evidently with the assumption She has for our soil. Poverty and starvation, of power, making its own contribution to the subversion and retardation of democratic Lawlessness and repression— development in Kashmir. The few civil liberties that the Kashmiris had achieved through It's with these blessings struggles during the 18 years since 1931, particularly in the sphere of freedom of speech, That she has come to us. vanished. Mere criticism of the government, however healthy, became a crime Freedom, being of heavenly birth, punishable with imprisonment. In 1947, before the NC came to power there were no less Can't move from door to door; You'll find her camping in the homes than 48 newspapers and periodicals published from Srinagar, Jammu and other big Of a chosen few alone. towns, propagating different views and belonging to all shades of political opinion. But There's restlessness in every heart, soon after the NC took over it became a thing of the past. More than half of these journals, But no one dare speak out— including all the critical, bold and independent ones, were banned by highhanded Afraid that with their free expression methods. All Hindi and English papers disappeared (Bazaz 1954, 470). In 1951 the NC Freedom may be annoyed. government found it expedient to amend the Press and Publication Act of 1932 to further The dictatorial NC style of governance unleashed a trail of consequences. On the one muzzle and weaken the already moribund press in the state.4 The daily, bi-weekly, hand, by forcing the people to exile it created permanent and potential “secessionists” weekly and fortnightly journals were to publish no less than 24, 8, 4 and 2 issues outside the borders of the state who kept the pot of the Kashmir problem boiling in a respectively every month. If any journal failed to come out with the prescribed number relieved and encouraging atmosphere attracting “semi-loyal” and “dis-loyal” (Linz 1978, of issues it would automatically be deemed to have ceased the right of publication. State 5 28-33) resident opposition to their camp. On the other, it created bitter memories of the journalists vigorously protested against its adoption and called it a “Black Bill,” but the NC oppression among the supporters, progeny and relatives of the oppressed more legislation was enacted in spite of the opposition (Bazaz 1954, 470-471). In the beginning through the word of mouth than in writing. of 1953, several papers including The Daily Martand, Sawera and Naya Kashmir were peremptorily ordered to stop printing. The Chand was asked to get all the material for To sum up, the history of democracy in Kashmir presents a dismal picture of the denial of publication censored by the district magistrate. Sawera and Naya Kashmir, though democracy. The National Conference under the stewardship of Sheikh Mohammad stanch and old followers of the nationalist cult, had grown into the habit of criticizing the Abdullah once accused the Dogra maharaja's administration of resorting to unfair nationalist leaders, thereby becoming obnoxious. The Jamhoor, while resenting the means during the 1947 “Praja Sabha” elections. The major charges against the orders, published an editorial under the title “Press law or Strangulation.” The maharaja's administration was that it rejected most of the nomination papers filed by government issued an order imposing pre-censorship ban on it even before the ink had the NC candidates on one pretext or the other. Eight nomination papers had been filed dried on the paper. All officials, government contractors, panchayats (council of village by NC members against Mian Ahmad Yar. All eight were declared invalid and he was elders) and ration depot holders were ordered to subscribe only to Daily Khidmat the elected unopposed to “Praja Sabha.” Ironically, when Sheikh Abdullah assumed power official organ of the NC. Som Nath Tikku, editor of the weekly New Kashmir was dragged he was also accused of similar charges in 1951. Sheikh's followers after his ouster also by legs on his bare back by the NC volunteers for about a mile on the famous highway, the accused his successor Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad of similar maneuvers during the 1957 Residency Road, when it was full of snow during winter of 1948. The reason was that he and 1962 assembly elections. The same continued to be a common complaint against dared to criticize the arbitrary methods of the NC leaders, forcing him to leave his Bakshi's successors Sadiq, Mir Qasim, Sheikh Abdullah and the NC-Congress alliance. motherland and perceive his career of journalism elsewhere (Bazaz 1954, 474-475). Interestingly, those who were earlier accused of committing electoral malpractices, when out of power, themselves accused their successors of the same charge. Mahjoor, the nationalist poet, had, during the freedom movement, portrayed a rosy picture of anticipated independent Kashmir in his famous and commonly sung In the words of the famous writer, activist and participant observer, Balraj Puri, “There melodious poetry which played an important role in the mass mobilization of Kashmir has been persistent policy of denying Kashmir a right to democracy: one party rule has around NC discourse. He was so disillusioned with the authoritarian rule of the NC that, been imposed on the state through manipulation of elections, opposition parties have in disdain, he wrote the famous satirical poem, Azadi. It is worth quoting a few verses been prevented from growing and elementary civil liberties and human rights have been form the poem (Mahjoor 1972). denied to the people” (Puri 1993, 53). Sumantra Bose, one of the leading authorities on contemporary Kashmir, echoes the same conclusion, “The political history of J&K Let us all offer thanksgiving, clearly does not fulfill even the procedural minima of democratic governance. With the For Freedom has come to us; It's after ages that she has beamed partial exception of 1947-1953 and 1977-1984, New Delhi elites have ruled the territory

91 92 through a combination of direct control and intrusive intervention and through to excel in maneuvering became the hall mark of administration (Jagmohan 1991).” sponsorship of intermediary IJK governments unrepresentative of and hence unaccountable to the population [sic]” (Bose 2003, 97). “The singular political tragedy While the records are replete with administrative regimentation to perpetuate the of Kashmir's politics” says Sumit Ganguly, “was the failure of the local and national monopoly of the political space of the party in power, a few instances should be narrated political leadership to permit the development of an honest political opposition….As a to show the extent to which the administration had become venal and corrupt on account result of local chicanery and national laissez fair, every election except two (1977 and of the unhealthy nexus that existed between the politicians and the institutional 1983) since the very first, in March 1957, was marked by corruption and deceit. Over the framework. The Justice Ayyanger Commission which was set up in January 1965 to years any opposition to the National Conference was steadily driven out of the inquire into the allegations of corruption against Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad, had in his institutional arena” (Ganguly 1997, 38-39). report, inter alia, observed: “The most saddening and depressing of the materials placed before me were the affidavits of the officials who confessed to have knowingly done Administrative maladies It is an established fact that an administrative system is largely the product of political improper acts extending even to tampering with official records to the prejudice of the culture. If the party in power has assumed the reins of government with the support of state and the state property and monies in carrying out the desire or orders of Bakshi the people, institutionalized opposition has a sufficient space in the political culture. If Ghulam Mohammad to benefit him or his relations” (Government of India 1965). the persons constituting the ruling party are honest and upright plus adequately Despite the change of governments the position remained the same in this arena—the qualified and experienced in the science of administration the administrative system is politicians and the administrators continued to be hand in glove to frustrate fair play and expected to be pro-people, hassle free, corruption free, influence free, red tapeism free, all procedures required to make efficient, effective and healthy institutions. inordinate delay free, transparent, accountable, highly institutionalized and Discretionary powers, and that too enjoyed by the corrupt politicians and bureaucrats, mechanized to guard against the misuse of power. However, if the reverse is the case, the had played havoc with justice. Until 1986 the subordinate staff was appointed by the administrative system is doomed to be deformed—anti people, pro-rich, corrupt and ministers and bureaucrats. A few examples are worth quoting as they are illustrative of discretional, delay oriented, anti-reform and anti to institutionalization and how they misused their discretionary powers, rather than exposing the diseased system mechanization initiatives—and in fact a coercive mechanism to perpetuate injustice and in fullness. In 1984/85 the transport minister gave a list of 150 persons to the managing the hegemony of the powerful. Since in J&K the parties in power owed their position not director of the State Road Transport Corporation with an instruction to appoint them as to the popular vote but to manipulations and fraud committed with the willing as well as drivers. When the managing director indicated that certain procedures for selection had forced cooperation of the bureaucracy, one could only expect an unholy alliance between to be followed, he was instructed to not bother with these procedures. When the the ruling class and the bureaucracy to grossly misuse power to serve their personal managing director after verifying their documents found that many persons in the interests at the altar of justice, fair play and societal interests. This is exactly what minister's list did not even posses driving licenses, he was told “what is your use as a happened. Not surprisingly, therefore, in the state it seems a mirage to expect getting Managing Director [sic] if you can not arrange even a few driving licenses?” (Jagmohan one's due if one does not have any one to do the siffarish—to recommend, push either in 1991, 190). lieu of the bribe (rishwat) or because of any intimate relations (rishta, zan, pachhan). In fact bribes and siffarish have been the only two effective qualifications to aspire for a In early 1985 the opportunity to fill hundreds of vacancies for school teachers was fully government job, promotion, “prized” post, contract, subsidy, loan, movement of file, a exploited. Candidates with bachelors and masters qualifications were ignored and those favorable note on the file, punishment to criminal and justice to innocent. If one with just matriculate degrees in third division were appointed as teachers. In one case possesses these two “qualifications” the impossible could become possible. three female members of an influential political element were appointed, ignoring many other highly meritorious candidates. Out of frustration caused by the selections one While aspiring for an important position in the bureaucracy, it was necessary to give a candidate set himself on fire or, as the alternative version goes, tried to set the District willing consent to serve the party interests of the regime—to help in rigging elections in Education Office on fire (Jagmohan 191-192). its favor, to faithfully carrying out its orders to benefit the top politicians of the regime, suppress the opposition and promote party in power. The result was the bureaucracy Another example of naked corruption and politicization in the recruitment to the developed acute distortions. Those bureaucrats, who were dishonest, ineffective yet subordinate services pertains to the selection of police inspectors and sub-inspectors in masters in manipulations, sycophancy and misuse of power, held the sway. Those few January/February 1986. On the one hand it shows that regardless of the recruitment who were highly competent and honest were caught in the vortex of bad politics, rules, 30 percent of the officers were appointed on the recommendations of the leaders relegated to the fringes to play inconsequential roles. The result was that the “State of the ruling party. On the other hand, the trading of charges also reveals favoritism and machinery lost its credibility, justice became a causality, corruption made deeper corrupt practices of the chief minister and the ministers, in other matters with which inroads, productivity of the administration declined, regional and ethnic loyalties they blamed each other and that too by quoting persons recruited and the exact amount deepened and groupism, factionalism, rivalry, undercutting, intrigue and competition swallowed up by them.

93 94 An eyewitness accounted the duel of charges and counter charges which the recruitment Congress in the ratio of 80:20 or 70:30 or 60:40 (Jagmohan 1991, 198). This was the provoked at the cabinet meeting where the matter cropped up for discussion. The situation in 1989 when the militancy had already started knocking at the door of the state trouble started when the director-general of police explained the selection procedure government. that he had adopted. He said that, in accordance with the chief minister's instructions, he had decided to select 70 percent of the candidates by “open merit” and 30 percent on Although the Public Service Commission had been in existence for a long time, it had not the recommendations of the leaders of the ruling party. The police chief also disclosed been able to gain public credibility as political interference and misuse of power had that, with regard to selection from Baramulla District, he had consulted two leaders of ended up making this crucially important body, holding the public trust, a tool of the ruling party who were close confidents of the chief minister. This provoked the legitimizing political and bureaucratic corruption. At the top of it, the successive agriculture minister, who also came from the Baramulla area. He taunted that the two governments did not refer the vacancies of gazetted positions in Civil Services to the “close confidants” were not the only leaders from Baramulla. He, too, represented the Public Service Commission for more than 10 years between 1984 and 1995/96; this was same district. An infuriated chief minister interjected that the two leaders in question deliberately done to fill up these vacancies through the backdoor. It is reported that had fought for him, and he could not forget their sacrifices. The agriculture minister during this decade the political bosses appointed a large number of persons to gazetted 6 remarked that he, too, had sacrificed a lot. This further annoyed the chief minister. positions bypassing the Public Service Commission. “What sacrifices have you made? You are a thief. You have swallowed Rs. 6 lakhs [sic]. Corruption was expected during the period of clientele governments, but to see it Give me account of the money.” The agriculture minister shot back, “You are a bigger maintaining its ugly presence even after Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah assumed power thief. You have swallowed Rs. 28 lakhs [sic]. You should first render account of this was shocking. Despite having bid adieu to the vocabulary of rai shumari (plebiscite) amount. Government is not your fiefdom. You have recruited all your relations against around which he had mobilized the people and won mass support, Sheikh still important posts.” The chief minister lost control and shouted for the agricultural commanded a public following who expected from him a sharp departure from the mis- minister to get out of his house. The agriculture minister shouted back, “This is neither governance they had witnessed especially in terms of misuse of power. Sheikh also your personal property nor your family jagir [estate]. Who are you to ask me to get out?” aroused public hopes when he, immediately after assuming the reins of the government The chief minister then started rolling his sleeves and menacingly advanced towards the in 1975, declared abroad that the time of accountability had finally come. Life size cut- agriculture minister (Jagmohan 1991, 189). outs and graffiti about the war against corruption were put on all major crossings of the In statutory public undertakings, the influential persons grossly misused their position. state. Massive media hype and euphoria were built; many officials with doubtful For example in the State Financial Corporation four sons of political leaders were integrity were either shown the door or shifted to Delhi. But within only a few months the appointed (Jagmohan 1991, 192). It was also a routine matter to appoint those the ruling euphoria died down and Sheikh's regime proved as corrupt as any government that political party called their “workers”—who actively supported it in winning the preceded it. A booklet, Lal Kitab, catalogued acts of corruption committed by Sheikh and elections—to the subordinate services especially Class IV and daily wagers only and his family members. In the early 1980s it was being circulated clandestinely. The book completely exclude their opponents. The former governor of Kashmir, Jagmohan, says might have politically motivated. But the specificity of the allegations was such that only that 'In February 1988 I found that in the preceding nine months over Rupees three Sheikh's “historic greatness” prevented the public from believing the charges. In any crore had been spent on employing daily wagers at the instance of the Ministers [sic]” case, it can not be denied that corruption thrived under the very nose of Sheikh. There (199). was a rumor that the conduit of corruption was Begum Abdullah as it was she who was easily accessible to corrupt elements both during the period of Sheikh Abdullah and It was during the governor's rule that a major reform was carried out by promulgating Farooq Abdullah. In the forest leases, the allotment of lands for hotels, making the Jammu and Kashmir State Subordinate Services Recruitment Act, 1986 which concession to industrialists, giving contracts, disposing of government property, the provided for the establishment of an independent statutory Subordinate Service misuse of lease agreements, government nominations for receiving education in Selection Board. But the tradition of manipulation and nepotism was so strongly professional colleges, the appointment/transfer of officers to “prize positions,” ingrained in Kashmir's political system that as soon as Dr Farooq Abdullah came back to corruption, nepotism and favoritism were rampant. As a matter of fact, there was vicious power in November 1986 his government proceeded to repeal this act. Though one may nexus between the politician, the bureaucrat and the businesspersons presided over by not approve of the imposition of the governor's rule, the fact remains that political the Sheikh family. It should be remembered that it was during this period that scores of interference in the delivery of justice was considerably minimized during the period. plots were allotted at cheap rates to influential businesspersons for the construction of Once the “elected” government came to power, the old game of manipulation of personal hotels and commercial complexes on the bank of Dal Lake regardless of the irreparable party patronage resumed with full vigor. An example will suffice. During the coalition loss to nature's gift on Kashmir. When the general public of Kashmir felt happy over the government of the NC and the Congress, 1,100 posts were created in the agriculture income tax raids on the top businessperson of Kashmir to detect hidden income, Sheikh department in mid-1989. In regard to the filling of these posts, a dispute arose between Abdullah and his family felt extremely annoyed and expressed their anger. Surely, the coalition partners—whether the posts would be divided between the NC and Sheikh had become a protocol of those capitalists and racketeers who made unmerited

95 96 suppressed by misuse of power, it resurfaced violently in 1989 and gained mass support gains through dishonest means. The laws were meant and honest practices mandatory since the people were completely dissatisfied with the corrupt regime. only for the poor people. About the prevalence of corruption and mis-management in the state, the Godbole The existence of corruption during the period of Sheikh Abdullah was even Committee remarks: acknowledged by Farooq Abdullah when he openly lambasted his late father for allowing the construction of hotels by the lake's side.7 He also used the tainted image of the A repeated point made to the committee pertained to the large prominent colleagues of Sheikh—D. D. Thakur, G. N. Kochak and G. M. Bhadarwahi—as leakage of funds by way of corruption and mismanagement. The plan an excuse for excluding them from his ministry when he took over in 1982 after the death expenditure has gone up from Rs 3 per capita in 1950-51 to Rs. 1,118 of Sheikh Abdullah. Dr Farooq Abdullah also appointed a commission of inquiry to look in 1994-95….However, its impact in terms of development indicators into the allegations of corruption particularly in regard to allotment of housing plots to has not been significant. For example, though nearly 100% of the certain erstwhile ministers in Sheikh Abdullah's ministry. However, when G. M. Shah rural population is supported to be covered by rural water supply became the chief minister, the commission was wound up as many ministers of Sheikh's schemes, a number of these schemes are stated to be out of order. cabinet were also ministers in the Shah's government. On the other hand, a cabinet sub- Though rural electrification is stated to have reached the level of 96% committee was constituted to go into the allegations of corruption and improprieties in 1995-96, the actual and reliable power supply leaves a great deal to committed by Dr Farooq Abdullah. be desired [sic] (Government of India 1998).

The writings of the insiders and the interviews with well-placed people and commoners The committee also quoted many evaluation studies done by the government and converge to show that the governments of Farooq Abdullah and G. M. Shah were no various agencies and individuals to show the hollowness of the official claims of success/ exception to the long history of rampant corruption, nepotism, embezzlement, achievement of the Integrated Rural Development Programme (IRDP) and other malpractices and improper decisions. Quite interestingly, however, there is no evidence programs. of a corrupt politician or bureaucrat having been booked by the Vigilance Department for corrupt practices. Failure of the public sector The importance of the public sector was envisaged by the popular political party, On 16 September 1989, Tourism Minister R. S. Chib resigned. Among the reasons Chibb National Conference, during the freedom struggle in Naya Kashmir adopted as a charter gave for his resignation were the “direction-lessness of the government” and the in 1944. This policy resolution later found its place in Section 14(a) of the state “unprecedented chaos and corruption in the administration” (Kashmir Times, 17 constitution with the objective of creating a socialistic pattern of society. Incidentally the September 1989). He said that all the three regions of the state were in turmoil and Industrial Policy Resolution of the Government of India (1951) also gave the place of methods of recruitment had made the state government infamous amongst the people. prime importance to the public sector.

Writing about the conditions prevailing during Farooq Abdullah's period, noted Initiated in 1960, with the registration of J&K Minerals as a state-owned ernterprise journalist Nilkhet Chakravartty in his political commentary of 11 March 1990 said: (SOE) followed by J&K Industries Limited (JKI) which was incorporated in 1963, the total number of SOEs rose to 21 by the end of the 20th century including 4 statutory From personal experience borne out by two visits to the valley in that enterprises (Finance Department, Government of J&K). Although the intentions behind period, this correspondent gathered the very disturbing impression the establishment of the private sector were noble beyond any doubt, the experience that behind all the high-visibility political impetuosity and proved it discordant with human nature and, not surprisingly, it failed to deliver exhibitionism on the part of Farooq Abdullah, his ministry emerged practically. None of the SOEs proved profitable ventures. What is more, they made as the symbol of utter corruption and mal administration. It was this substantial cash-losses, particularly after 1989/1990. The number of SOEs which very phase which saw the growing activity of the secessionist groups became dependent upon the state's budgetary support for paying their wage bills emerging out in the open (Jagmohan 1991, 340). increased consistently over the years. An amount of Rs0.33 million was provided as budgetary support during the year 1988/89 to three SOEs (including J&K SRTC). Khem Lata Wakhloo, one of the 12 NC defectors of 1984, is right in saying that one of the During 1996 the number of such SOEs rose to seven; they were provided a budgetary basic reasons behind the Muslim United Front (MUF) wave was that the MUF promised support of Rs 395.6 million (Government of J&K 1998; Government of India 1998, 208- employment for educated youth and an end to government corruption. The latter was an 236). especially sensitive issue with Kashmiris, who say that most of the Rs700 billion given to the state as development aid by Delhi over the decades has been siphoned off by a nexus The cash losses of the SOEs put together have been continuously on the increase. During of corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and businesspersons (Wakhlu and Wakhlu 1992, 1996/97 the total cash losses recorded by the SOEs were Rs730.7 million whereas the 321). Although the democratic expression of dissent against mis-governance was total wage bill was Rs1.0465 billion. This means that the SOEs have not been able to earn

97 98 even the full wages of the employees. In some of the SOEs the cash losses have been far in government for paddy in two efficient paddy growing areas of the state, Kulgam in excess of the wage bill which means that losses have been increasing with every unit of Kashmir and R. S. Pora in Jammu have shown Rs140 per kanal in Kulgam and Rs167 per production. The total number of regular employees on the rolls of the SOEs at the end of kanal in R. S. Pora as net returns. Given the poverty line of Rs365 per capita per month as 1996/97 was 21,006. In addition to this there were 9,000 daily rated workers on the rolls per National Sample Survey (NSS), at least 65 percent population is below the national of SOEs. As against this, the total number of employees in the SOEs was only 8,294 in the poverty line. The complementary orchard industry supporting agriculture could not year 1976/77 (Government of India 1998). come up in terms of technical progress, innovations and development along with other agricultural allied sectors like animal husbandry, sheep breeding, apiculture, sericulture The Godbole Committee evaluated the working of J&K Industrial Limited, J&K etc.; the state domestic product (SDP) of the sector registered a consistent decline over Minerals Limited and J&K State Road Transport Corporation to find out the malaise five decades. It contributed to the state income at current prices, 62 percent in 1948/49 afflicting the SOEs. It found that JKI reported a cumulative profit of Rs12.7 million in which came down to 47.40 percent in 1980/81, 33.93 percent in 1999/2000 and 28.58 1985/86. However, it started reporting cash losses from 1987/88, and by the end of percent in 2006/07. 1996/97, it reported a cumulative loss of Rs1086.5 million. In most of the units, even the cost of raw materials was not being recovered through sales. This is especially disturbing This steep and consistent decline in its contribution has to be off-set by corresponding in the case of certain items based on resin and wood where the private sector was making feeding sectors of the economy to sustain the state which has not happened. Along with substantial profits. No less disturbing are the huge losses suffered by the other SOEs, the decline in average size of holding, the net area sown per capita also registered a steep forcing the Godbole Committee to recommend their closure or transfer to the private decline from 0.19 hectares in 1950/51 to 0.11 in 1984/85 and 0.06 in 2005/06 which sector (Government of India 1998). This sorry state of affairs was largely due to over- should be a serious cause of concern. The state being a mono-crop economy, the food staffing, corruption, non-modernization and the absence of a proper work culture. The grain production registered an increase of 1.3 percent from 1963/64 to 2005/06 against extent of over-staffing could be seen from the fact that for every Regional Transport 2.6 percent of annual population growth, hence imports for public distribution system, Commission (RTC) bus, there were six drivers and eight conductors and cleaners PDS, and demand from private market increased to 0.7-0.8 million tonnes per annum (Government of India 1998). Once an officer was appointed he did not have to exert causing the capital out flow to the tune of Rs11 billion a year (leakage effect) (Greater much. There were too many holidays, too little official work and too many avenues for Kashmir, 12 June 2007). making quick money. The industry comprises mainly traditional craft sector and small scale units wherein the Economic crisis state income and employment generation capacities are limited by technology Notwithstanding the achievements in certain areas of the economy, failures in the constraint and scale-effect. Its share in SDP was 8 percent in 1950/51 which increased to context of needs, opportunities and promises have been disquieting. The state's full 12.9 percent in 1980/81 and 13.09 percent in 2004/05 at the current price. It terms of production potential has remained constrained due to policy failures and shortcomings natural rate of growth, the secondary sector registers a growth of 0.6 percent per annum in implementation. The output employment multipliers have remained very weak. between 1980/81 and 2004/05 (Greater Kashmir, 12 June 2007). The state's Though the relative share of the tertiary sector has increased over the years, within the dependence on outside markets, even for the products in which the state enjoyed a tertiary sector, however, government services account for the lion's share—more than comparative advantage or where there were vast potentialities, has grown over the years. 300,000 families directly depend upon employment from the government. This has put In the late 1990s, the food grains, vegetables, mutton, butter, and ghee purchases from a heavy strain on the budgetary resources. Manufacturing sector in the state is in its outside markets alone cost the economy Rs3.8330 billion (Government of India 1998, infancy. Value added in manufacturing in 1993/94 was the lowest (Rs1.9 billion) among 4). The Indus Waters Treaty and the highly under utilization of water resources for the 17 major states. The comparative figure for Himachal Pradesh was Rs9.3 billion. generating hydraulic power have not only deprived Kashmir from benefitting from a Only 15,200 persons were engaged in the manufacturing sector. This was the lowest vast economic potential which it is endowed with, it has also been paying on the figure among the 17 states. The corresponding figure for Himachal Pradesh was 59,800. importation of electricity. Clearly on account of the under-utilized growth potential, In terms of investment on land in 1997 in manufacturing and infrastructure too the state lower capital productivity, and a small and shrinking productive base of the economy, stood at the bottom (Rs85 billion) among the 17 states. The corresponding figure for the state government faces high fiscal imbalance making it excessively dependent on the Himachal Pradesh was Rs215 billion (Government of India 1998, 6). Labor absorption union for resources. Both for plan and non-plan finances, Jammu and Kashmir is capacity in the non-agricultural sector was circumscribed by lack of adequate heavily dependent upon the union government. Its five-year plans are wholly funded by investment. The average size of holdings got reduced to 3.53 acres in 1960/61, 2.31 acres the centre. A substantial part of its non-plan expenditure is also met by the union. For in 1971-77, 2.05 acres in 1991/92, 1.88 acres in 1995/96 and 1.63 acres in 2000/01 as per instance, in the budget for 1988/89, about 74 percent of its revenue receipts were by way Agricultural Census carried out over the period. About 78 percent of holdings were of transfers from the central government. While the state got about Rs10.03 billion from economically unviable and more than 52 percent of holdings were less than one kanal. the central government as grant and loans, its own total receipts were about Rs2.34 The recent cost of cultivation studies conducted by Revenue Department of the state billion. The state's salary bill for the same year was about Rs2.77 billion, that is, more

99 100 than its own receipts (Jagmohan 1991, 241). What is more, despite the resource In the floods of 1986, 1987 and 1988, the losses were estimated to be Rs840 million, constraints, the government showed undue softness towards the recovery of huge Rs3.28 billion and 2.12 billion respectively. The forest cover of the state has also largely amounts falling arrears against various agencies—Rs 250 million from forest leases; been denuded. A recent study revealed that during the period 1952-1976, about 91 Rs320 million from sales tax assesses; and Rs8.3 million from Octroi contractors thousand hectares of forest land was lost to various “development projects” (Jagmohan (Jagmohan 1991, 199). While the government did not stop harping about the shortage of 1991, 211). This is besides the public's reckless encroachments into the forest land; for funds, Rs25 million were unnecessarily spent in one year in purchasing a helicopter and meeting annual firewood needs, even now 0.5 million quintals are being made available its maintenance on the eve of the outbreak of insurgency in Kashmir. in the city of Srinagar alone.

True, owing to the inherent systemic infirmities and the widespread prevalence of The heartless brutalization of forests by timber smugglers almost denuded Kashmir of political and bureaucratic corruption, economic development further widened the gulf its precious green gold. The problems arising from the pollution of air, water and soil, between the rich and the poor. Underdevelopment of the state continued and the caused by cement factories, stone crushers, brick kilns, smelting industries and the unemployment problem aggravated day by day posing a serious challenge not only to the unchecked use of chemicals and polythene bags remained unattended. A study by the governments in power but also to the institution of state. Hydro-Biology Laboratory of the Government S. P. College revealed that even in the twilight of the 20th century, drinking water supplied in some parts of Srinagar was worse Environmental degradation than the polluted water of River Jhelum (Jagmohan 1991, 212). The conversion of City It needs no emphasis that preservation of natural environment is crucial for the survival Forest (laid out during the governor's rule in the mid-1980 of the last century) into a golf of humankind. Yet when the protection of environment promises greater prosperity of course and the installation of a cable car system which provided a passenger ropeway the people, sensitivity about nature's bounties assumes added significance. Kashmiris from Gulmarg to Kongdori and from Kongdori to Apharwat have raised eyebrows from demands this attitude from their rulers especially when it is considered that Kashmir is the environmentalists. These ventures have also not proven economically gainful. bestowed with a unique picturesque beauty and salubrious climate assuring a prosperous tourism industry and the potential to become the mainstay of Kashmir's From 1990 onwards the state came in the grip of militancy and the major issues of economy once peace is restored. But as rightly put by Jagmohan “Kashmir's natural governance remained the breakdown of law and order and the massive violations of beauty is being ravaged by the beast, the new beast that has found a safe refuge in the human rights from all sides. The state is still struggling to restore law and order and to minds of the new elites and is fed liberally by the forces of exploitative democracy.” The stop violation of human rights. During the crisis of 2010 the issue of governance deficit dying lakes, rivers and forests present a sordid picture of this unfortunate development. was time and again raised by not only the media but even the home minister of India and Of the numerous water bodies that once dotted the valley, and constituted invaluable other top politicians. tourism products, only two or three have survived. Those too are fast dying under the insensitive regimes whose policies have been goaded to monopolize the political space of Aijaz Ashraf Wani is an assistant professor at the Department of Political Science at the a credulous society which has yet to travel a long distance to think beyond petty and University of Kashmir in Srinagar. momentary selfish interests. The famous Dal Lake, which was described by Abul Fazl as Endnotes the “delight of the world” and which became the theme of profuse poetry produced by a 1. The Naya Kashmir Manifesto was adopted by the NC in September 1944 to shape the galaxy of poets, has shrunk from 24 square kilometer to about 1 square kilometer. future of Kashmir on the lines delineated in this draft constitution prepared by the Without realizing its baneful consequence on Kashmir's environment and the tourism Communist ideologues of the NC. Its rhetoric promised a new Kashmir underlined by industry, successive governments acted as apathetic spectators till more than half of the prosperity, equality and end of exploitation oppression and autocracy. For details see, Dal was converted into habitations and cultivated lands. Add insult to injury was a large Naya Kashmir Manifesto, published in 1944. number of plots allotted to influential businesspersons to construct hotels and 2. The NC leadership emphasized repeatedly in their public addresses that the Naya commercial establishments on the banks of Dal Lake. The damage was compounded by Kashmir Manifesto would form the basis of their governance system once the Kashmir was freed from the Dogra Raj and the Nationalists assumed power. allowing the sewer from these constructions to flow into the lake. A modern slum was 3. On 13 July 1950, the Kashmir government under the leadership of Sheikh Abdullah thus brought into being right on the banks of the lake, ravaging its landscape, silting its introduced the most sweeping land reforms in the entire subcontinent. By this Act a limit beds and multiplying its slushy weeds. According to one estimate, at the turn of the 20th was put on the cultivable land and the extra land was taken away from big landlords century, about 15 tonnes of phosphorous and 320 tonnes of nitrogen were flowing into it without compensation and transferred to peasants. Between 1950 and 1952, 700,000 every year (Jagmohan 1991, 211). Dal Lake and River Jhelum have virtually become landless peasants, mostly Muslims in the valley but also including 250,000 lower-caste sewer pits and sewer drains. The fate of other lakes, namely, Wular and Manasbal is not Hindus in the Jammu region, became peasant-proprietors as over a million acres were different. The Anchar, Gilsar and Hukhsar lakes are now extinct. River Jhelum, the life directly transferred to them. By the early 1960s, 2.8 million acres of farmland and fruit line of the valley, is getting silted at an alarming speed. Its banks were encroached and orchids were under cultivation, managed by 2.8 million peasant-proprietor households. converted into habitations. Now even rains of moderate intensity send the river in spate. 4. As a result of the movement of 1931 an amendment was made in the State Press Laws bringing them in conformity with those then in force in British India thereby giving

101 102 New Delhi: Konar Publishers. freedom of press to the state people. Immediately after the promulgation newspapers lWani, Gul M. 1993. Kashmir politics: Problems and prospects. New Delhi: Ashish Publishing appeared from Srinagar and Jammu. In succeeding years many journals were also House. started. lZutshi, N. K. 1976. Sultan Zain-ul-Abidin of Kashmir: An age of enlightenment. : 5. Political scientist Juan Liz has advanced a threefold typology of political opposition to Nupur Prakashan. regimes: loyal, semi-loyal and disloyal. In case of Kashmir the people who had leanings towards Pakistan or were pro-independence but were committed to participate in Indian-sponsored institutions and political processes formed semi-loyal opposition, like MUF and Jamat-e-Islami. 6. Based on my field work. A list of back-door appointment to gazetted positions was appended with a writ petition filed by the KAS aspirants in the High Court of Jammu and Kashmir in 1997. 7. In a seminar in early 1984, Dr Abdullah remarked: “A great crime was committed by permitting construction of these hotels. They should all be burnt. They have raped and pillaged the bank of the lake.''

References lAivalli, Veeranna. 1998. Single line administration: An administrative experiment in Jammu and Kashmir. Indian Journal of Public Administration 44 (3). lBazaz, P. N. 1954. The history of struggle for freedom in Kashmir. New Delhi: Kashmir Publishing Co. lBose, Sumantra. 1997. The challenge in Kashmir. New Delhi: Sage Publications. l———. 2003. Kashmir: Roots of conflict, paths to peace. New Delhi: Vistar Publications. lDahl, Robert. 1982. Dilemmas of pluralist democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press. l———. 1989. Democracy and its critics. New Haven: Yale University Press. lDrabu, V. N. 1986. Kashmir polity. New Delhi: Bahri Publications. lGanguly, Sumit. 1997. The crisis in Kashmir. New Delhi: Cambridge University Press. lGovernment of India. 1951. Administrative report of Jammu and Kashmir state. New Delhi: Government of India. l———. 1965. Report of the commission to inquire into the charges of corruption against Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad (Ayyanger Commission Report). New Delhi: Government of India. l———. 1998. Report of the committee on economic reforms for Jammu and Kashmir (Godbole Report). New Delhi: Government of India. lGovernment of Jammu and Kashmir. 1998. Jammu and Kashmir, 50 years. Srinagar: Government of Jammu and Kashmir. lJagmohan. 1991. My frozen turbulence in Kashmir. New Delhi: Allied Publishers. lJonaraja. 1898. Rajatarangini. Trans. J. C. Dutt. Calcutta. lKalhana. 1979. Rajatarangini. Books 5-8. Trans. M. A. Stein. Repr. New Delhi: Motilal Banarsidass. lLinz, Juan. 1978. The breakdown of democratic regime: Crisis, breakdown and re- equilibration. Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press. lMahjoor, Ghulam Ahmad. 1972. Azadi [Freedom]. In An anthropology of modern Kashmiri verse (1930-1960), ed. and trans. Trilokinath Raina. Poona: Sangam Press. l———.1988. Kalam-i-Mahjoor [Poems of Mahjoor]. Vol. 10. Trans. T. N. Kaul. New Delhi: Swatantra Bharat Press. lPuri, Balraj. 1993. Kashmir towards Insurgency. New Delhi: Orient Longman Ltd. lSaraf, Mohammad Yousuf. 1977. Kashmir's fight for freedom. Vol. 2. Lahore: Ferozsons. lSchmitter, Philippe, and Terry Karl. 1993. What democracy is… and is not. In The global resurgence of democracy, ed. L. Diamond and M. Plattner. Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press. lWakhlu, Khem Lata, and O. N. Wakhlu. 1992. Kashmir: Behind the white curtain, 1972-91.

103 104 recommends steps to address the issue.

Public unrest The prevalent energy crisis has forced hapless Pakistanis into a neo-stone-age. The year 2011 has dawned on them with up to 20 hours of electricity and gas load shedding along with frequent disruptions in transport fuel. The intense shortfall of electricity—crossing Managing Public Reaction to the 5,500 MW mark and recording an almost 40 percent deficit in the demand and Pakistan's Energy Crisis supply equation—has left them struggling even to meet basic needs such lighting, water, Muhammad Asif fuel for cooking, and protection against extreme weather conditions. The resulting sleepless nights, disrupted daily routines, and exacerbated financial conditions (the loss nergy is crucial to the existence of societies in the present age. It is the backbone of over 400,000 jobs) have all made life a series of continuous physical, financial, and of the economic, industrial, and social development of any country. As nations psychological problems. This is no reward for conscientious citizens who deserve better across the world focus on improving their energy paradigms, Pakistan faces the E in return for the taxes they pay to the government. worst energy crisis of its history. The country is into the fifth year of the crisis and new dimensions of the problem continue to unfold. Initially, the problem appeared in the Despite its crucial role, energy is becoming increasingly rare in Pakistan. It is not just the form of electricity shortages. In the wake of a sharp increment in energy prices toward scarcity of electricity that is troubling people, but that of gas as well. Collectively, the 2008, the affordability of energy also became a serious issue. Since 2009, the acute shortage of these two sources of energy has driven the nation to distraction. The crisis is shortage of electricity has been accompanied by the equally disturbing shortfall of gas. so severe that people are unable to carry on with their daily routines. At the beginning of The industry sector faces continual gas disruption, as often as five days a week, and 20 2010, the majority of cities and towns across the country were experiencing up to 18 hours a day of gas load-shedding has been common in many households during the hours of electricity and gas disruption, made even worse with the onset of summer. winter for the last two years. The commercial sector has also been severely affected by the problem—on top of the scheduled load shedding, it is also subject to forced In many cases, peculiar trends such as hour-long load shedding every alternate hour disconnections of supply. The severity of the issue can be gauged from the government's have been experienced round the clock. If this is the treatment dealt out to cities, the decision in November 2009 to impose complete gas load shedding on industries and miserable state of remote areas and smaller towns and villages can well be imagined. CNG stations for two days a week up to March 2010. The gas shortage in conjunction Those who can afford it resort to uninterrupted power supply (UPS) systems and with electricity scarcity has driven households into a situation where taxpaying citizens generators as a backup to ensure that their basic electricity needs are met during load have to wait for hours to be able to meet basic needs such as light, water, and gas for shedding hours. Many, however, despite having spent handsome amounts on these cooking. systems, continue to struggle thanks to the substandard equipment sold in the market. Since 2007, the national media has reported many tragic incidents of people dying due While the energy crisis continues to pound the socioeconomic fabric of Pakistan both at to heat exhaustion during lengthy spells of load shedding. the micro- and macro-level, the initiatives taken by the authorities concerned so far have been unable to arrest the problem. The Musharraf-Shaukat era played an important role Deep social unrest as a result of the energy crisis being expressed in the form of peaceful in fostering the present energy crisis—issues were allowed to crop up and grow out of as well as violent protests and civil disobedience is another critical matter. The crisis not proportion. The present government, more than three years into office, has also failed to only bars people from carrying on with their essential daily routines but has also come up with any meaningful efforts to address the issue. The former minister for water deprived many of their livelihoods. For taxpaying citizens, it is incomprehensible that, and power, Raja Pervez Ashraf, and his team wasted three years without any positive having duly paid all bills, taxes, and revenues, this is the return they are offered by the developments. They lacked vision, strategy, and resolve; they have not been able to government. Protests have continued since 2006 in various parts of the country. The develop even a single energy project that is robust and value-engineered. Also, they have violent protest in Multan on 14 April 2008, however, provided the first real glimpse of turned a blind eye to in-house inefficiencies and irregularities. Their only the extent of the underlying unrest in society. A mob of hundreds of textile sector “accomplishment” has been the futile pursuit of rental power plants that are actually workers protesting against persistent electricity and gas disruptions rioted, ransacking unnecessary, unviable, and detrimental not only for the power sector but also for the several buildings, including the offices of the Water and Power Development Authority economy at large. Throughout 2008 and 2009, Ashraf kept reassuring the nation of an (WAPDA), torching a bank, and leaving at least 13 people injured. There were also end to load shedding by December 2009, something he comprehensively failed to instances of gunfire as some protestors were carrying arms that they had snatched from deliver on all counts. Thus, owing to the reckless attitude of the authorities concerned, the security guards of the attacked offices. WAPDA officials were also seen retaliating in the crisis continues to worsen, adding to public suffering and frustration. The situation similar fashion to disperse the attacking mob. has resulted in deep societal unrest, as is evident from almost daily street protests that Over time, the crisis-driven rioting has become increasingly intense and frequent. The often turn violent. This article looks at the unrest triggered by the energy crisis and

105 106 year 2008 saw frequent waves of demonstrations orchestrated by enraged private The need for public education citizens as well as trade bodies. People from all major cities, including Karachi, , The solution to public unrest exists in public education. In Pakistan, the common Lahore, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, , Sialkot, and Sahiwal, person's understanding of energy is very weak. As an important stakeholder—the registered their protests. At many places, these protests resulted in attacks on utility consumer—s/he has a very important role to play in the success of national energy infrastructure, shutter-down strikes, and road blockades. The catalogue of protests strategies. Some of the major contributing factors in this below-par awareness of crucial continued to build throughout 2008, the last episode of which was a series of issues are as follows. demonstrations in various cities on 31 December with reports of clashes with the police 1. The low literacy rate. at various places. The most important event of the day was a protest by women and 2. Lack of energy-related courses at university and college level. children in Rawalpindi against the prolonged disruptions to natural gas supplies. It was 3. Lack of government/departmental initiatives for public awareness. heavy-handedly dealt with by the police. The first day of 2009 saw even uglier incidents as violent protests erupted across the country. The tragic highlights of the day included Energy consumption patterns in Pakistan are very inefficient, and energy conservation, the blockade of roads, gunshot injuries, destruction of public and private properties, by improving national consumption habits, is sorely needed. This would benefit not only looting, and clashes with the police. WAPDA offices and the offices and residences of the national grid but also individuals. political leader were also attacked. The low literacy rate is a factor that among other areas also affects the national energy Throughout the summer of 2009, violent protests were waged across the country on an consumption culture. On this front, there is hardly anything that can be done in the short almost daily basis as people found their daily routines pounded by up to 18 hours of load to medium term. Still, a considerable change can be brought about with the help of the shedding. On many occasions, there were clashes with the police, also resulting in large- educated segments of the society. There is a clear scarcity of energy-related knowledge at scale casualties and killings due to gunfire. Incidents such as attacks on WAPDA all levels. Universities do not offer many energy-focused programs. The situation at infrastructure and assaults on its staff members were reported in the national media technical colleges is even more disappointing. Things can be improved by starting new almost on a daily basis. There have also been incidents of attacks on the homes of programs or even by introducing energy modules within the existing programs. WAPDA staff. July 2009 saw violent protests on a daily basis, including a passenger Graduates with a better understanding of energy can significantly contribute to bringing train that was set aflame after having been looted by people who had gathered to protest about a positive change in the country's energy consumption culture. Children and against load shedding. During 2008 and 2009, in response to sudden tariff increments, adolescents can also play a very important role in improving the energy consumption people resorted to civil disobedience measures, such as withholding payments of bills till attitudes of a household. In energy-conscious countries, methods to save energy are the announced tariff hike was withdrawn and burning utility bills. The year 2010 also taught in an easy and accessible manner as part of the school curriculum. started with ugly scenes of violent protests across the country. On 18 March, the Government/departmental initiatives in the form of public awareness campaigns and situation took a new turn as the federal capital, Islamabad, was hit by violent protests incentives can also be very helpful. Over the last few years, there have been examples of against increased transport fare. The protests, which continued the next day until the energy-saving campaigns in the national print and electronic media, which is a decision to increase transport fares was repealed, resulted in clashes between the police commendable effort on the part of the departments concerned. These campaigns need to and demonstrators, causing many injuries on both sides, destruction of public and be made more appealing and be launched on a frequent basis. The distribution of private property, and over 300 arrests. Even paramilitary forces were needed to help effectively designed leaflets in conjunction with monthly utility bills could also be restore peace. beneficial. These alarming developments suggest that the level of public frustration has hit It is crucial to raise public awareness not only from the energy conservation perspective saturation level. Pakistan, with an already volatile internal situation on a number of but also in terms of a wider understanding of the challenges facing the country. The fronts, cannot afford to add energy-related public unrest to its problems. Similar fears violent protests against the disturbing energy crisis clearly indicate the widening have been echoed in recent studies conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of communication gap between policymakers and the public. It is crucial to win the Technology (MIT) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), concluding that in the confidence of all stakeholders of society in the fight against the energy crisis. Pertinent emerging energy scenarios in the world, those at the top of the economic ladder will be authorities need to hold constructive dialogues with various segments of the society. In able to procure the basic necessities of life, while those at the lower end will find the wake of the endless problems they experience at the hands of the energy crisis, themselves increasingly barred from access to such vital commodities as food, land, and people are in dire need of reassurance by the authorities. They need to know that shelter. Analysts also warn that the supply shortages could lead to disturbing scenes of policymakers are doing their best to ease their suffering. public unrest and the situation could spin out of control and cause a societal meltdown. Policymakers and the public are poles apart in terms of lifestyle and available privileges. Irrespective of the difficulties that the country and public face, respectively, the ruling

107 108 elite remain immune. The ongoing energy crisis is no different. No matter how critical bolster public confidence over the measures being taken should be instated. In this the energy crisis gets, the ruling elite continue to enjoy energy-lavish lifestyles. The use respect, policymakers ought to show their commitment to the public by leading by of energy departments' machinery and infrastructure for personal benefits is a norm. example. The blatant use of official transport for personal use is not considered an issue at all. Special plane and helicopter flights to transport friends, clothing, and even favorite Dr Muhammad Asif is a lecturer at the School of the Built and Natural Environment at foods—or for recreational activities—have all been reported in the national press over the Glasgow Caledonian University in the UK. the years. While the public experiences up to 20 hours of load shedding a day, the ruling elite remain in their centrally air-conditioned offices, their transport and residences all maintained using public money. If, for instance, they have to spend a few moments without air-conditioning, their support staff is there to look after them. The tragic status difference between the ruling elite and public only adds to national frustration.

Unless meaningful initiatives are taken to win public confidence, people will continue to express their frustration as they have been doing so far. Policymakers have to prove their commitment to the people. They must stop abusing national resources for their personal satisfaction and false standards. When the country is suffering from an energy crisis, for example, there is no reason for policymakers to continue to enjoy centrally air- conditioned offices and homes. The impact of the energy crisis must be reflected across the board. Policymakers—who are responsible for addressing the crisis—must face the heat of the crisis at least as much as the public. This is how to represent the people of Pakistan and win their support toward overcoming energy challenges.

Citizens also need to be educated to understand that violence and attacks on energy infrastructure and national assets are not going to help things improve. They must resort to methods of recording their protests in a peaceful and effective manner.

If the authorities concerned cannot educate and convince the public to stop its violence, they can at least guide them in the right direction in which to express their frustration. Despite its weaknesses, it is not WAPDA that is to be held accountable for the current chaos but key political and bureaucratic figures in successive regimes who should be facing the music.

It is vital that people are aware not only of their social responsibilities but also of their rights. They should also be able to make known their own opinion on issues rather than blindly believing the typical rhetoric of political leadership. They should be mature and vigilant enough to exercise their right of accountability through ballot or other legitimate means against those policies and decision-makers who deliberately or incompetently create crises. They should play their role in ensuring that the culprits of the energy crisis are held accountable for their blunders.

Conclusion In the wake of ever increasing violent protests against electricity and gas load shedding, it is important for the relevant authorities to comprehend the intensity of the underlying unrest in Pakistani society over the energy crisis. Measures need to be taken to stop the occurrence of agitated protests that pose a threat to national sovereignty. The first step in this regard would be to make meaningful efforts to arrest the prevailing energy crisis. Irregularities and leaks in the system must be curtailed. In parallel, a serious program to

109 110 Suicide bombing increased exponentially between 1981 and 2006—from 48 to 50 to 108 to 739 to 255 during 1981-90, 1991-95, 1996-2000, 2001-05, and 2006, respectively. It has become a global phenomenon and the fastest-growing form of terrorism, affecting at least 29 countries worldwide. Its major sites before the start of the Iraq war were Israel/Palestine, Lebanon, and Sri Lanka, followed by Turkey and Russia/Chechnya. Book Review: The Sociology The advent of the Iraq war made Iraq the most prolific site of suicide bombing; there of Suicide Bombings were no incidents of suicide bombings in Iraq during the long and brutal regime of P. Radhakrishnan Saddam Hussein. Although the Iraq war began only in 2003, it accounts for a third of all deaths from suicide bombing in the 25 years from 1981 to 2006. During 2003-06, there Life as a Weapon: The Global Rise of Suicide Bombings were twice as many suicide bombings in Iraq alone as in the other 28 countries. The Riaz Hassan three 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington DC, which killed 2,988 people, remain UK: Routledge the most lethal incidents of suicide bombing, but Iraq has suffered the largest number of Hardback 2011 Price: £95 casualties resulting from suicide bombing during 2003-06. Pp. 284 Of the 1,200 suicide attacks that occurred worldwide between 1981 and 2006, 1,169 or 97 Suicide bombing is lethal violence involving targeted use of self- percent occurred in 1983-85, 1994-99, 2000-03, and 2004-06, with 33, 103, 282, and destructing humans against perceived enemies; it has significant 751 as the corresponding number of attacks. These peaks were due to (i) the civil war in communicative and expressive dimensions and is aimed at changing Lebanon (in which a number of foreign countries were involved) when the attacks were the functional principles of political systems by coercing others into largely carried out by Hezbollah and targeted US and French multinational actions they would not otherwise take, or into refraining from peacekeeping forces and the Israeli Defense Force occupying southern Lebanon; (ii) the actions they desire to take; it is associated with conflicts caused by a first Palestinian intifada aimed at derailing the Oslo Peace Accord, when the attacks configuration of individual and collective actors, public and private were carried out by Hezbollah-trained members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic grievances, institutional conditions and opportunity structures Jihad, although this peak was also due to escalation of suicide bombings by the Tamil sanctioned by religious and political philosophies/ideologies and Tigers in Sri Lanka; (iii) the second or Al-Aqsa Mosque Palestinian intifada and attacks special group affiliations; its effectiveness is augmented by the by Chechen insurgents in Russia; and (iv) the Iraq war and the escalation of suicide perpetrators' willingness to die; it is a weapon of the militarily attacks in conflicts in Pakistan and Afghanistan. challenged in asymmetrical conflicts; and has become a weapon of In the 25 years from 1981 to 2006, the incidence of suicide bombing increased 50 times choice among terrorist groups because of its lethality and and other forms of terrorism increased 19 times. The 1,200 attacks between 1981 and effectiveness in creating fear and mayhem amidst the ordinary 2006 caused between 14,600 and 16,729 deaths and injured as many as 10 times more rhythm of social life. people. While constituting only 4 percent of all terrorist attacks in 1981-2006, suicide These are some of Riaz Hassan's important findings in this pioneering book, which bombings accounted for 32 percent of all terrorism-related deaths, making this type of analyses suicide bombings as a method of choice and the motivation to use it among attack on average 12 times more lethal than other forms of terrorism. terrorist groups around the world. Hassan argues that it is this lethality or greater destructive power that has made suicide As Hassan would have it, the genesis of suicide bombings is rooted in intractable bombing the weapon of choice among terrorist groups. He also adds other important asymmetrical conflicts pitching the state against nonstate actors over political factors for the choice, such as suicide bombing as a relatively cheap weapon to entitlements, territorial occupation and dispossession; such conflicts instigate state- manufacture; the invisibility of the persons carrying the bomb and proceeding on their sanctioned violence and repressive policies against weaker nonstate parties, causing mission, which makes it easy for them to reach their target group, blow themselves up, widespread outrage and large-scale dislocation of people, many of who become refugees and kill others; the major psychological impact of suicide bombing and high media in makeshift camps in or outside so-called war zones. coverage; the symbolic significance of suicide bombing and its appeal as an act of exceptional commitment, martyrdom, and sacrifice for one's political community; the Relying heavily on the Flinders University Suicide Terrorism Database, which is importance of suicide bombing for the political and financial mobilization of sponsoring arguably the most comprehensive database on suicide bombings, Hassan analyses the groups in the community; and finally its effectiveness in attracting potential sociology of suicide bombing in its complexity as a social phenomenon such as its rise, perpetrators. peaks, lethality, and emergence as the weapon of choice among terrorist groups. Based on the analysis of the data and case studies of suicide bombings in Iraq, Israel and

111 112 Palestine, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka, Hassan makes several important context are strikingly different from ordinary suicide. One of the main differences observations, which include the following: between the two acts is that in suicide bombing the primary intention of the act is to kill others who have no prior relationship with the suicide bomber, whereas a l Humiliation, revenge, and altruism appear to play key roles at the organizational primary characteristic of suicide is the absence of murderous intent. and individual levels in shaping the subculture promoting suicide bombings. What lIn Durkheim's conceptual map (in his classic work, Suicide, one of the drives suicide bombings in Palestine and Sri Lanka and elsewhere is unbearable groundbreaking works in sociology which he wrote at the end of the nineteenth suffering and the reaching out for immortality for the sake of a political community. century) suicide bombing would fall in the rare category of altruistic suicidal actions lThe process of becoming a suicide bomber is gradual and highly selective and acts as which involve valuing one's life as less worthy than the group's honor, religion, or a screening mechanism to exclude psychopathological individuals. some other collective interest. lAs efficacy is the primary standard by which terrorism is compared with other lThe causes of suicide bombings lie not in individual psychopathology but in the methods of achieving political goals, suicide bombing is rarely, if ever, the strategy broader human conditions. Suicide terrorism emerges under certain societal of first choice. It tends to follow other strategies deemed less effective through the conditions, and understanding and knowledge of these conditions is vital for process of trial and error. developing appropriate public policies and responses to protect the public from it. lThe decision to adopt the suicide bombing strategy by terrorist organizations is lStrategies for eliminating or at least addressing the problems of economic based on rational calculations to maximize their ideological and political goals. deprivation, humiliation and related collective grievances in concrete and effective lSuicide bombings serve the interests of the sponsoring organization by coercing an ways would have a significant, and in many cases immediate, impact on alleviating adversary to make concessions, and by giving the organization an advantage over its the conditions that nurture the sub-cultures of suicide bombings. rival in terms of support from constituencies. While much can be said in favor of Hassan's book, it raises some important issues that go lDeployment of suicide bombings by sponsoring organizations is determined mainly against some of his findings. A case in point is the rising trend, as in Pakistan, of by their cost-effectiveness, versatility, lethality, and tactical efficiency in reaching recruiting children who are sold to terrorist groups by their parents or middle-persons. well-guarded high-value targets. “Price of child suicide bomber in Pak: Rs5-25 lakh” was the title of a UNI report on 16 lLabeling suicide bombers as bad, mad, sick, morally and psychologically impaired, June 2009, which drew attention to a statement by the Pakistani interior minister that fanatics and homicidal killers does not advance our understanding of the causes of the terrorists were using children for their barbarous terrorist activities and a suicide the phenomenon of suicide bombings, which can be used to devise preventive bomber is paid Rs0.5 million-2.5 million by terrorist outfits. The use of children as policies. In fact, they impede us from discovering its real nature, purposes, and suicide bombers who may not know what they are doing with their lives undermines the causes. argument that suicide terrorism uses life as a weapon for altruistic purposes, and even lAs in the case of fallen soldiers, the death of the suicide bomber constitutes a trivializes the very notion of altruism as a major factor in the complex set of causes triumph and a victory. In this respect the genealogy of the act is profoundly modern behind the suicide attacks. It is also in flagrant violation of children's rights as enshrined and “this worldly” not “other worldly” as some who label it as a religious sacrifice in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. argue. lThe claim of liberal democracies that they have the right to defend themselves with Another case is when individual lives are snuffed out through deliberate acts of killings nuclear weapons, which appears to be accepted by the international community, is and these are reported in the media and shown on TV channels as everyday occurrences, in effect an affirmation that suicidal war can be legitimate. In this way, the suicide the result is diminishing value of human life which becomes embedded in human and bomber belongs in an important sense to the modern Western tradition of armed social psyche. This may result in more death and violence in society and in an increasing conflict for the defense of a free political community; and in order to save the nation loss of faith in humanity. (or to found its state) by confronting a dangerous enemy, it may be necessary to act without being bound by ordinary moral constraints. Hassan's concluding paragraph in the book is highly pertinent for placing suicide bombing in its larger sociocultural and political contexts: Hassan's case studies support findings of other recent studies on several counts which include the following: Suicide bombings, by their very nature, are not only public acts but also acts of public performance in which bodies and ideologies lThe driving force behind suicide bombings is politics and not religion, though in become texts produced between author and audience. Exploration of some cases religion can play a vital role in recruiting and motivating potential future the meanings of these texts requires critical theoretical, conceptual suicide bombers, particularly when secular ideologies fail to bring about desired and hermeneutical tools which do not distort their meanings. changes. lWhile suicide is an integral part of suicide bombing, its meaning and nature in this Hassan's book is certainly an important contribution towards that goal. Closely related

113 114 Documents to the earlier statement is the following observation by Ian McAllister, professor of political science at the Australian National University, in his foreword to Hassan's book:

Terrorism is a scourge that has destroyed many lives. But it is also a political act that is motivated by political goals, and our natural revulsion at suicide bombing should not obscure this fact. Once the subject is sufficiently illuminated, it is to be hoped that governments India-Pakistan Relations: will cast aside emotion and seek lasting political solutions to the An Economist's Peek into the Future Ijaz Nabi problem. Pakistan's quest for economic growth Now that Hassan has sufficiently illuminated the subject it is for the concerned Inviting an economist to lead the discussion on such an important and emotionally governments, policy-makers and public intellectuals to make use of his contribution and charged subject as India-Pakistan relations is asking for trouble. There are two risks. work for restoring lasting peace and social harmony in the world. In doing this, the US- One is that the audience will be showered with statistics and comparative advantage led imperialist countries which have played havoc in the Middle East and other regions formulae and thus put to sleep. Rest assured, I have left my more analytical papers on with their imperialist agenda and made terrorism an imperialist Frankenstein has a trade with India safely in the library at LUMS. major role to play. The other risk is the charge of economic determinism. On this, I am guilty as charged. But as you will see, the economic argument resonates well with other ways of looking at Dr P Radhakrishnan is a former professor of sociology at the Madras Institute of Pakistan's future and its position in the neighborhood. Development Studies in India and a commentator on public affairs. He can be contacted at [email protected]. Let me start of by saying that Pakistan needs economic growth of 7 percent or more for the next four decades. This doubles GDP every ten years and in four decades will result in a substantial improvement in per capita incomes. This is not such a tall order. It is just 1 percentage point higher than the growth rate we have achieved in several decades in the past, and only 2 percentage points higher than our average growth rate since 1947.

But there is an important caveat. We have to seek a source of growth—let us call it a growth vent—that is geographically balanced and thus can be sustained for a longish period of time.

What is exciting about a liberalized economic relationship between Pakistan, India, and other neighbors is that it can help achieve all three objectives: a higher growth rate, more regionally balanced growth, and the combined effect that gives us sustained high growth for a longer period than we have ever achieved before. Let us examine this assertion.

Recent growth vents The region that constitutes Pakistan has seen the following major vents for economic growth in the last 100 years:

1. The canal colonies and sustained agricultural growth 2. Partition and industrialization in a protected market 3. Green revolution technology 4. Migration to the gulf 5. At least two geopolitically driven, external assistance-financed growth spurts: one under Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s and the other under Musharraf in 2001-07.

If we were to rank these growth vents in terms of our objective of geographically balanced sustained high growth, the canal colonies would rank number one and green revolution technology number two. Protection and industrialization would be a distant

115 116 third both because it could not be sustained and also because it resulted in unbalanced Sindh is hugely significant in shaping our religious/cultural psyche that is embedded in growth. Migration to the Gulf is number four simply because the primary stimulus the venerated Sufi tradition of Islam. The Sufi saints chose to settle in Sindh along the comes from outside and we have not yet found a way of climbing up the skills ladder; the Indus because there were receptive host communities that were benefiting from the growth vent is thus vulnerable. The externally financed, geopolitically driven growth trade routes between markets in territories that now lie in India and Iran through spurts under Zia and Musharraf fail the sustainability criteria and the latter was Balochistan. decidedly unbalanced geographically and increased inequality across income groups. The point I am trying to make is that the cultural centers that constitute Pakistan have Whichever growth vent we examine, one thing is common. Because of the difficult defined themselves historically, based on a pattern of economic transactions, trade relations with India, the growth vents contributed to, and the economic managers who routes, and cultural influences, as parts of much larger regions that lie outside the oversaw them, promoted the deepening of our north-south corridor that helped borders of the modern nation-state of Pakistan. Indeed, these centers were as well or integrate the national market for labor, goods, and finance. better connected with other trade and cultural centers outside the modern nation-state of Pakistan than those that lie within it. This has posed a huge challenge for the nation But the focus on the internal north-south corridor also turned Pakistan into a lopsided builders of Pakistan. economy. Thus, despite a relatively small coastline, we have behaved like an island economy with one port city as the major growth node. I will revisit this point shortly. Hemmed in by colonial borders on one hand and hopelessly bad relations with India on the other, Pakistani policymakers have attempted to reshape the country's economic At this stage, let me just state that the growth vent we seek requires tapping into lucrative geography. This has resulted in the island economy structure I mentioned earlier with markets outside our borders in a manner that creates several growth nodes viz., Karachi, the north-south corridor replacing the old trading routes. the Arabian sea coastline of Sindh and Balochistan, Lahore, and Peshawar. Huge investments in the north-south corridor, which stretches from Karachi to A new growth vent embedded in history Peshawar, have brought about a degree of integration. Indeed, the corridor constitutes a History provides insights into the kind of growth we should aim for. Would it not be great central pillar of the modern state of Pakistan. The impressive growth rate of 6 percent we if a historically inspired growth vent could also help our perennial search for national have enjoyed in several decades was made possible because of the corridor. identity? We now need to build on the strength of the corridor to achieve the kind of growth we Neither Iran nor India has the problem of national identity because the collective seek in the coming decades. This requires greater integration of the territories that lie to memory recognizes the modern nation-state as a historical continuum with a well- the west of the Indus with the rest of the economy and also revival of some powerful old defined culture, language, and system of economic transactions. growth nodes. In our case, the border regions have shared systems of economic transactions and The economic strategy consistent with the north-south corridor lines up the economy cultural ties with neighboring regions that lie outside the current borders of Pakistan. well to take advantage of growth stimuli emanating from overseas markets. The strategy Lahore in Punjab was the center of trade, commerce, finance, and education for a region now needs to be modified to allow us to tap into the growth stimulus that may come from that included Indian Punjab, Haryana, the Jammu and Kashmir valleys, and Himachal rapidly growing markets in our immediate neighborhood. Pradesh from which it was totally cut off soon after 1947. The loss of eastern markets may have mattered less to the old trading centers of The ancient walled city of Peshawar has cast a huge and disproportionate shadow on Pakistan, which lasted till the 1990s when Indian economic policy was delivering what South Asia's culture. Famous South Asian actors (the Kapurs, , and came to be known as the “Hindu growth rate” of 3 percent per annum. However, Shahrukh Khan) hail from Peshawar as do several world squash champions. The following economic reform, the Indian economic growth rate has jumped to 7 percent or prominence of Peshawar is on account of the fact that the merchants of the walled city more, and India is now poised to become a major economic player in world markets. Our constituted a hugely prosperous hub of economic transactions between South Asia and old exclusive focus on the north-south corridor now requires a serious rethink. the Central Asian territories. The civilizing influence of trade on the surrounding Pashtun areas would also have been substantial. Imperial rivalry between Russia and Some happy scenarios Britain cut off Peshawar from its northern markets and 1947 severed access to the Indian Let us imagine that the rethink I have just recommended has happened and we are living markets. The pool of economic transactions for Peshawar shrank dramatically. in a world characterized by the following:

Note furthermore, that the modern silk route through Hazara and Gilgit-Baltististan on 1. Taking inspiration from other regions of the world, we have liberalized our trade to China is an attempt to reproduce the ancient trade links that were severed during and investment regime with India, i.e., placed our trade regime with India on the colonial times. same footing as with any other country and India-Pakistan investment regime is

117 118 similar to that enjoyed by European Union member countries. 2. We have allowed all neighbors, distant and near, to enjoy transit facilities through Pakistan 3. Sensing the opportunities, Pakistani trading centers in Peshawar, Lahore, and Sindh have re-established trade links with the Indian markets to the east and with the natural resource-rich centers across our borders to the north and west. 4. Savvy Indian investors, in joint ventures with their Pakistani partners, have set up Food Price Increases in South Asia: huge processing zones in Peshawar, Lahore, and Sindh. These centers put together National Responses and Regional Dimensions components manufactured in Pakistan, India, China, and other international Executive Summary manufacturing centers. This is done to take advantage of plentiful Pakistani labor, shorter transportation costs (from Peshawar to the Central Asian markets, and from Global food prices nearly doubled during 2004-08 and have remained centers in Karachi and Gwadar to the Gulf and Middle East markets) and Pakistan's relatively high since then. excellent infrastructure along the north-south corridor now extended to connect other points on the Arabian Sea coastline. Most recently, the FAO index of real global food prices rose from 151 points in June 2009 5. Chinese investors already have access to these centers where, instead of competing to 172 points in January 2010. The rise in global food prices was highest for cereals, with Pakistani manufacturers as they do now, they have forged mutually beneficial which remain relatively expensive: between 2005 and 2008 the international price of wheat more than doubled, and global rice and maize prices tripled, and as of June 2009, joint ventures. Pakistan is reaping the reward of competition between Indian and wheat and maize prices remained substantially higher than four years previously (by Chinese investors. respectively 55 percent and 87 percent) while rice prices were about double. 6. Peshawar, Lahore, and several coastal cities in Sindh and Balochistan, enjoy pre- eminent positions as centers of industrial, commercial, financial, and cultural A number of simultaneous events explain the unusually high food-price activity, linking South Asia once again to the Middle East and Central Asia. inflation that took place during 2007-08. While supply constraints (in particular 7. Hazara, by now a full-fledged province of Pakistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan become low levels of world cereal stocks) played a role, the main drivers were increases in prosperous corridors of economic transactions between China and Pakistan. demand (especially the rapid increase in the use of food crops to produce biofuels), Chinese travelers on the now six-lane, all-weather Silk Route, put up plaques speculation (large flows of speculative capital into agricultural commodity futures around the ancient ones saying, “We are back!” markets) and policy failures (especially export restrictions). 8. India, sensing the employment opportunities across the border for a restive Kashmiri population, opens the pre-1947 trade and transport routes. In a few years, In South Asia, food price inflation varied significantly among countries. In 2007-08, it ranged from relatively moderate in India (about 7 percent), to high in nobody can tell the difference between “Azad” and “Occupied” Kashmir. Nepal and Bangladesh (about 15 percent), to very high in Pakistan (around 20 percent) 9. Pakistan's state-of-the-art north-south corridor links up with the old trading routes and in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan (more than 30 percent). Besides the inter-country to the west, north, and east, allowing Pakistan's regional trade hubs to be integrated variations, there were significant variations among commodities and, in many as never before. countries, among regions. 10. Finally, Pakistani universities replicate the old Gandhara model to draw students from within Pakistan and regions across the border to help create a vibrant labor Food price inflation exceeded non-food price inflation throughout South market and a new multi-ethnic Pakistani identity at peace within and with its Asia except in India. During the 2007-08 food crisis, food price inflation became the neighbors. main driver of general inflation throughout of most South Asia. Though in the second half of 2008, the role of food price increases diminished in most countries of the region after prices came down, in 2010 food prices again became the main factor driving Dr Ijaz Nabi is a professor of economics and dean of the School of Humanities, Social general inflation in a number of countries including India. Sciences and Law at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan. This lecture was delivered at the South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA) South Asian countries responded to food price inflation with a wide range Independence Day Program “Celebrating Freedom and Commemorating Friendship” of policies and measures. At the heart of food price policies in the region is the in Lahore on 13 August 2010. political economy of the trade-off between consumers' and producers' interests. Most of the measures that were taken sought to dampen the negative effects of the food price rises on consumer welfare, and were short-term in nature; measures to address traditional constraints on agricultural production, or to otherwise facilitate a supply response, have been much less common. Most popular have been trade policy measures

119 120 to dampen price increases (e.g. abolishing import tariffs) or to ensure adequate supplies result of the price change. We use nationally representative household survey data for on domestic markets (e.g. restricting exports); building up or expanding public grain Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal from before the food crisis to simulate the impact of reserves; controlling prices; and extending existing social protection measures or (to a food price inflation on poverty headcount levels, taking account of both first-round and much lesser extent) introducing new social protection programs. second round effects. The analysis does not allow for general equilibrium effects.

IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE INFLATION ON THE POOR In Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal, the net marketing position of Besides negatively affecting macroeconomic stability, food price inflation decreases the households leads to significant first-round welfare losses for the large welfare of households who are net buyers, rather than sellers, of food. In particular, it majority of households. In Bangladesh and Nepal respectively, about 80 percent threatens the welfare of poorer households, for whom food takes a large share of total and 70 percent of households are net buyers of rice, while in Pakistan 77 percent of spending. households are net buyers of wheat. Based on first-round effects only (net buyer-net seller analysis) a 50 percent increase in the price of rice would raise the national poverty In South Asia most households, including those living in rural areas, are net headcount ratio in Bangladesh by about 6 percentage points. Similarly, a 40 percent buyers of food and likely to suffer welfare losses from increases in food increase in the wheat price in Pakistan would cause a 2 percentage point increase in prices. As is well known, the vast majority of urban households are net food buyers. But national poverty. The estimated poverty effect in Pakistan is smaller than in Bangladesh contrary to popular perception, 70 - 80 percent of rural households in the region are also because of the lower price increase and the smaller average gap between household net buyers of the main grain staples (rice and/or wheat). consumption and production. In Nepal, a 20 percent increase in the rice price would For the average household in South Asia, food takes close to half of total raise the national poverty headcount ratio by only 0.5 percentage points, but rising rice spending, compared to only 17 percent in the United States. This high percentage prices make households who are already poor even poorer. In all three countries the makes South Asian populations very vulnerable to food price increases. impact of food price inflation on poverty differs significantly among regions, and regional poverty impacts often greatly exceed the average national impact. Poor people are likely to have been especially hard-hit by high food prices. First, poor people spend a larger proportion of their income on food. Second, the food In all three countries, second-round responses in production and price inflation of 2007-08 was especially stark for cereals, and the proportion of cereals consumption are found to offset part of the welfare loss from first round in total food spending is much higher for the poor than the non-poor. Moreover, effects. In Bangladesh, based on differences in national poverty headcount ratios with households who previously were living not far above the poverty line are likely to have and without second-round effects, adjustments in behavior by consumers and fallen into poverty as the result of higher food prices. producers decrease the first-order poverty impact by about 2 percentage points or up to 30 percent in proportional terms. In Pakistan, the second-round responses have an even larger effect; they reverse up to 90 percent of the first-round impact on the poverty headcount.

In Sri Lanka, food price inflation is likely to have increased the poverty headcount ratio and to have been particularly harmful to the poorest of the poor. Analysis by the World Bank shows that a large share of the population was clustered around the poverty line even before the food crisis, and implies that a 10 percent decline in per capita consumption may lead to a 6 percentage point increase in the poverty headcount ratio. In Afghanistan, there is no information regarding the poverty impact of food price inflation, but because even before the food crisis 42 percent of the Afghan population was classified as poor, and an estimated 20 percent of the population lived just above the poverty line, there is no doubt that the impact of the food price crisis in Afghanistan has been extremely serious. In India, existing programs and policies made that country relatively shock-proof to the food crisis.

The first-round welfare loss caused by higher food prices is larger in urban The effect of food price inflation on household welfare. The first, simpler, level areas than in rural. Unlike most urban consumers who can only respond on the keeps quantities fixed and is limited to the pure first-order impact of the price change. consumption side, most rural households can adjust both consumption and production. Households are classified into net buyers and net sellers of a commodity where the latter In Bangladesh the headcount ratio based on the upper poverty line increases by about 6 gain and the former suffer welfare losses as a result of a price increase. A second level of percentage points in urban areas compared to 5 percentage points in rural areas. In analysis takes account of the consumption and production decisions that take place as a Pakistan the urban-rural disparity is even larger: the urban headcount ratio increases by

121 122 3 percentage points while the rural ratio increases by less than one percentage point. In “beggar-thy-neighbor” type policies aggravated price increases elsewhere, as seen in Nepal the disparity between rural and urban areas is less pronounced, because of the Afghanistan where wheat prices shot up after Pakistan introduced an export ban, and in smaller overall impact of higher food prices. Bangladesh where India's restrictions on rice exports contributed to rice price inflation. Export bans also encouraged smuggling while lowering economic returns for domestic The impact of food price increases on the poverty headcount also varies farmers. considerably among households in different income groups. Bangladesh and Pakistan both have high concentrations of households around the poverty line. As a The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement aims at increasing result most of the welfare loss from high food prices is concentrated among households intra-regional trade via partial trade liberalization. Based on formal trade in the middle of the distribution of per capita expenditures. In Bangladesh the flows, South Asia is one of the world's least integrated regions. The SAFTA agreement is first-round impact of higher food prices on the poverty headcount ratio in the third an attempt to increase intra-regional trade through the gradual dismantling of some expenditure quintile is 24 percentage points using the country's upper poverty line and tariff barriers, but it leaves out a large number of products denominated as sensitive, and 34 percentage points using the lower poverty line. Similarly, in Pakistan the poverty it does not address non-tariff trade barriers. Chapter 3 of this report uses a world-wide headcount ratio in the second (next to poorest) quintile increases by 11 percentage recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium trade model to analyze SAFTA's points. In both countries, higher food prices lead to a slight decrease in the poverty potential for increasing intra-regional trade and mitigating food price increases in South headcount in the poorest expenditure quintile. This is because even in the poorest Asia. groups there are some households that are net sellers and therefore gain from the food price increase. Since before the food price rise all households in the poorest quintile in The findings show that SAFTA's potential for influencing domestic food Pakistan were poor, the headcount ratio decreases as soon as one or more of these prices in South Asia is limited. The model simulations indicate that global households crosses the poverty line. restrictions on cereal exports had a much smaller impact on domestic prices in South Asia than the global average, mainly because of South Asia's relatively limited Households that remain below the poverty line are worse off with higher dependence on international markets. They also suggest that SAFTA hardly dampens food prices. In Bangladesh the simulated rice price rise leads to an increase in the domestic price increases, mainly because of the large number of “sensitive products” intensity of poverty as measured by the poverty gap which increases from 0.35 to 0.41 (negative list) and the absence of agreements regarding non-tariff trade barriers and (upper poverty line) and 0.25 to 0.32 (lower poverty line). Similarly, in Pakistan the subsidies in SAFTA.1 simulated wheat price increase results in a rise in the poverty gap from 0.17 to 0.18. Thus, high food prices clearly hurt the poorest households. Tariff reductions under SAFTA will not be enough to reduce informal trade in South Asia. Official trade data are widely believed to grossly understate the “true” Despite the possibility of second-round effects, a considerable portion of size of intra-South Asian trade, given the substantial informal trade flows. Indeed the welfare loss caused by food price inflation is likely to persist— unless the informal imports of wheat and wheat flour from Pakistan ensured a more or less general equilibrium effects are significantly larger than second round adjustments. That continuing supply in Afghanistan during 2007-08 despite the official export ban outcome is unlikely, given that the wage elasticities of output prices in South Asia tend to imposed by Pakistan. An initial attempt to model informal trade suggests that SAFTA be relatively low. Whether poverty caused by increasing food prices is permanent or has only a limited impact on informal trade flows across all countries. Tariff reductions, transitory will largely depend on whether high food prices persist and for how long, and in the absence of other institutional reforms and enforcement, would most likely have on how governments respond, in terms of social protection programs and other policy little impact on illegal cross-border trade, especially between Pakistan and Afghanistan. measures. LESSONS LEARNED AND THE WAY FORWARD TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND FOOD PRICES The food crisis is by no means over. Domestic prices of both wheat and rice remain In principle, intra-regional trade liberalization could mitigate food price high throughout South Asia. There is growing agreement that a two track approach is inflation. Discussions regarding the food crisis in South Asia have largely ignored the required, combining increased investments in safety nets with measures to stimulate regional dimension of food price inflation and the possibility of improving food security broad-based agricultural productivity growth, with major emphasis on the major food by liberalizing trade. In countries that traditionally rely on food imports, regional trade staples. liberalization might increase confidence in international markets. The degree of price transmission is an important determinant of consumer During the food crisis most countries in South Asia increased their trade welfare. For obvious political and social reasons, most South Asian governments are barriers instead of facilitating trade. While in an effort to control domestic food likely to continue to seek to protect consumers against price variability. This requires prices, most South Asian countries reduced import taxes, several of them also careful management of price transmission through trade, pricing, and stocking policies, introduced export control measures or even banned exports of certain staples. These supplemented by social protection programs.

123 124 Policies and programs for managing price transmission need to be technology transfer, policymakers should ensure that the global economic crisis does appropriately designed. Trade policies should encourage the operation of the not jeopardize public investment in agricultural research and rural infrastructure. private sector and not restrict exports. Pricing policies may include limited subsidies Governments must also allow price incentives to reach farmers, The should ensure that targeted to the poor, but general control measures should be avoided. Public grain adequate mechanisms are in place for supplying quality inputs at accessible prices and reserves should be limited in size, and an international coordinated global food that farmers have appropriate marketing opportunities. In this context public spending reserve—in which countries' own reserves would become part of a larger global on irrigation, rural roads, and electricity is crucial. reserve—deserves consideration.

Protecting consumers' welfare and maximizing food security in a sustainable and fiscally This excerpt is reproduced courtesy of the World Bank and is available online at affordable way is only possible if simultaneous attention is given to appropriate supply http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546- 1269620455636/6907265- response measures that protect producers' welfare as well. 1 1287693474030/South_Asia_Regional_Food_Prices_Final.pdf. These simulation results do not mean that export restrictions imposed by individual Endnote countries do not matter. By restricting supplies, export restrictions can seriously 1 These simulation results do not mean that export restrictions imposed by individual countries augment food price inflation in importing countries that import a large portion of their do not matter. By restricting supplies, export restrictions can seriously augment food price food supplies from the countries that imposed the ban. inflation in importing countries that import a large portion of their food supplies from the countries that imposed the ban. Higher food prices are not unequivocally bad and may provide new opportunities. Besides the potential benefits to net selling households and their effects on supply, higher food prices could generate a number of other benefits. In South Asia, they provide an opportunity to policymakers to reexamine the complex system of input-output pricing interventions; reduce spending on input subsidies and instead refocus public spending on investments to raise farm productivity (irrigation, rural roads, electricity) as well as on improved social protection measures. Higher food prices may also stimulate innovative developments in food aid, in particular a shift from traditional food aid to food assistance through local food purchases combined with cash transfers and vouchers. Sustained higher food prices could also help the implementation of responsible international trade policies that benefit low-income countries, and help to reform developed countries' agricultural support programs in a way that may remove the remaining barriers to progress on the WTO Doha trade negotiations.

The long-term challenge to produce enough food has not disappeared. The underlying problems remain of low stockpiles, rising demand mainly fuelled by continuing population growth in developing countries, and flattening yield growth. These problems are particularly relevant for South Asia, given the region's high population growth.

Raising productivity is necessary to ensure South Asia's food security. Given that most productive land is already under cultivation, future increases in agricultural production in the region will need to be based on yield increases. Because world prices of energy and fertilizer are expected to remain substantially higher than before, yield increases are the only sustainable way to reconcile higher input costs and farmers' incentives with low and stable consumer prices of wheat and rice.

Yield increases seem entirely feasible given the substantial yield gaps in South Asian agriculture. Despite a few important exceptions, the impact of higher prices on crop yields has been limited so far. To raise yields requires a combination of technical interventions and socioeconomic policies and measures. But besides

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