North-East Asia Energy Interconnection and Reggpional Development
Han Huang Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization October 2018 1N1. New Opport un ities f or C ooperati on
2. Outlook of Energy and Electricity
3. Grid Interconnection Planning Schemes
4. Comprehensive Benefits 1.1 Potential for Regional Cooperation Large Economy, and Great Prospects for Regional Economic Cooperation In 2017, the total GDP in Northeast Asia accounted for 25% of the world total. In 2017, the foreign exchange reserve was 5.3 trillion USD; the total foreign investment was 352.8 billion USD, accounting for 25% of the world total (exclude the DPRK). The foreign trade of China, Japan and Korea keeps increasing. In 2017, the total foreign trade of the three countries was 5.8 billion USD, accounting for 20% of the world total. In particular, the trade among the three countries was 1.5 billion USD, accounting for 25% of the total foreign trade of the three countries.
14000 4000 80%
12000 3500 70% 3000 60% 10000 2500 50% 8000 2000 40% 6000 1500 30%
4000 1000 20% 500 10% 2000 0 0% 0 China Japan ROK Russia Mongolia China Russian Japan ROK DPRK Mongolia Total volume of trade（US$billion） GDP（US$billion） Foreign exchange reserves(US$billion) Proportion of the intra-regional trade of a country to its total volume(%) GDP and foreign exchange reserve of Northeast Asian Trade within Northeast Asian countries/areas in 2017 Sources：World Bank、UN countries/areas in 2017 2 1.1 Potential for Regional Cooperation Complementary Economic Structure, Broad Cooperation Field
Complementarity of industrial structure. The Northeast Asian countries can leverage their own stthtrengthsand then cooperate in the field ssuch as energy, int ellig llient manuftifacturing, energy saving & environmental protection, IT and producer services. An industrial division system can ensure the complementary and coordinated development of the industry. Complementarity of supply and demand. Northeast Asia has a tremendous consumer market. For example, Japan and the ROK export high-end manufacturing products and import raw materials; Mongolia and the DPRK mainly export raw materials and import manufacturing equipment. The market within the region can satisfy the needs of raw materials such as energy and mineral products, and meanwhile, support the industrial development in Mongolia and the DPRK.
Aiming at mutual benefits, Northeast Asia will embrace new opportunities in regional cooperation
3 1.2 Energy and Electricity, the Key of Cooperation Energy and Electricity Demand is High and the Growth is Rapid The key to promote regional development. Energy and electricity is not only the basic industries of the national economy but also the driving force of the social development. The consumption accounts for a high proportion in the world. In 2015, the energy consumption in Northeast Asia was 2.6 billion tons of coal equivalent, accounting for 14% of the global total; the total electricity consumption was 3.3 PWh, accounting for 16% of the global total. Demand is growing rapidly. From 2005 to 2015, the total primary energy consumption in Northeast Asia increased by 21%; the power consumption increased by 43%.
3 3.5
3.0 2.5
2.5 ption l equivalent) sumption 2 )) 2.0 1.5 1.5
1 PWh (Unit: 1.0 Power Consum billion tons of coa of billion tons mary Energy Con Energy mary 0.5 0.5 Pri (Unit: (Unit: 0 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Primary energy consumption in Northeast Asia Electricity consumption in Northeast Asia 4 1.3 Challenges in Energy Development High Dependence on Fossil Fuel Causes severe problems in environment and climate Fossil fuels account for 90% of the total energy consumption. In 2016, the total CO2 emissions in China, Japan and the ROK reached 12.3 billion tons, 3.3 times the amount in 1990 and accounting for 34.4% of the gllblobal total.Theaverage annual concentration of PM2.5 is 2~4 times higher than the WHO standard.
Global distribution of PM2.5 density (Unit: mg/m³) High Dependence on Imports 18 170 Causes risks in energy security 16 150 14 Fossil fuel import takes a high proportion in consumption.In 130 12 D/barrel) (USD/ton) e rmal unit) rmal SS cc nn 110 2017, thecoal/o il/il/gas itimports in Japan and the ROK were 550 and 10
350 million tons of coal equivalent, accounting for 84% and 83% of 90 8 their total energy consumptions. 95% of oil and 94% of natural gas 70 6 Japan LNG pri il Brent price (U million British the oal price in Japa oo were itdimported from outidtsideof NthtNortheast AiAsia. 50 4 //
30 2 (USD Crude Energy import is easily affected by the global situation Steam c Coal/oil/gas import price in Northeast Asia Sources：IEA、 NASA 5 1.4 Advantages in Clean Energy
1.20 Abundant Clean Energy Resources 1.00 Hydro energy: mainly stored in the Russian Far 0.80 East, and the technical potential is 100 GW . 0.60 Wind energy: the technical potential is 2.3 TW in 0.40 the Russian Far East, 1.1 TW in Southeast Mongolia 0.20 Go bi, an d21TWid 2.1 TW in N orth and dN North east Chi na. 0.00 Solar energy: mainly distributed in Mongolia and February April June August October December Wind Power in the Sea of Okhotsk Hydropower in the Lena River the technical potential is about 1.9 TW. Hydropower in the Amur River Wind power in Mongolia Gobi Complementarity of clean energy Complementarity of Clean Energies resources in Northeast Asia Hyypydro resources are complementary in different basins. The ppyeak runoff occurs in May - June in the Lena River, while occurs in August - September in the Amur River. Hydro and wind resources are complementary. The hydro resource in the Russian Far East is plentiful in summer while exhausted in winter; on the contrary , the wind in the Russian Far East and Mongolia is strong in winter while weak in summer.
6 1.4 Advantages in Clean Energy
Complementarity of Resource and Market Japan, the ROK and the DPRK have high electricity demand btbut are sh ort of energy resources and dd depend ent on i mport s. The Russian Far East and Mongolia are both rich in clean energy resources but low in electricity demand. Supplyldddf and demand of energy and dlii electricity are compl ementary. A bright future in resource exploiting and utilization is expected. Complementarity of Technology and Capital
China, Japan and the ROK have technical advantages in smart grid and clean energy generation. China is in the leadinggp position in the UHV technology . Japan and the ROK are developed in economy and strong in capital. The DPRK and Mongolia require technologies and investments, which provides opportunities for the technology cooperation and project investments within Northeast Asia . The Russian Far East is in economic restructuring period, and thus has great potential and requires technologies and investments. 7 1.5 Clean Development, the Common Vision
Energy Transition & Sustainable Development. The key is to accelerate the utilization of clean energy. The countries have issued policies to promote the clean development:
Russia China DPRK
Released the State Program Released the Renewable Energy Released the Renewable Energy Efficiency and Energy Law to promote the development Energy Law to encourage the DlDevelopment , and proposed and utili zati on of renewabl e devel opment and utili zati on of construction of seven large- energy, optimize energy renewable energy; formulated scale energy and electricity structure, ensure energy supply the five-year economic plan to projects in the Russian Far security, protect the environment, develop renewable energy and East. anddd reduce car bon em iiissions. solbllve power problems. Japan Mongolia ROK
Released the Feed-in Tariff to Released the Renewable Energy Released the Basic Plan for optimize the energy structure Law and approves the "National New and Renewable Energies and increase the proportion of Renewable Energy Program" and and 2030 New Energy Industry renewable energy. Released the the "Mongolian Integrated Power Diffusion Strategy to enhance Strategic Energy Plan and Syygpstem Program" to promote the ppgyromotion of clean energy increases investment in clean energy development. and gradually transform into a renewable energy. low-carbon economy.
8 1.6 Regional Energy Cooperation, the Key Trend
The supply and demand of energy and the distribution of clean energy resources are unbalanced Clean energies are mainly distributed in the Russian Far East, Mongolia, North and Northeast China. Load centers are mainly in Japp,an, North China, the ROK and the DPRK. Wide-area energy allocation is essential for the energy production and consumption. Clean energy needs to be locally converted into electricity Because the wind and solar energies are intermittent and volatile, the large-scale development should rely on an interconnected, long-coverageand large-capacity electricity allocation network. Accelerating clean energy utilization, strengthening international energy cooperation and ensuring regional energy security are the key trends of the energy development in Northeast Asia. To achieve the large-scale development, wide-area allocation and efficient utilization of clean energy, the Northeast Asia Energy Interconnection (NEAEI) should be established.TheNEAEIisaplatform aiming at clean development and energy/p ower coopp,eration, it will be a milestone of the sustainable energy development in Northeast Asia.
9 1N1. New Opport un ities f or C ooperati on
2. Outlook of Energy and Electricity
3. Grid Interconnection Planning Schemes
4. Comprehensive Benefits 2.1 Outlook of Energy Demand StidSustained GthGrowth in Energy DdDemand with a Sta ble SdSpeed By 2050, the total primary energy demand will increase by more than 25%. 2015~2050, the demand will increase from 2.6 billion to 3.3 billion tons of coal equivalent with a average growth rate of 0.7%. The growth rate is 1.3%, 0.7% and 0.3% from 2015~2025, 2025~2035 and 2035~2050. North China, Japan and the ROK lead in the amount of energy demand growth; the DPRK, Mongolia and the Far East have high growth rates. Clean and Low-Carbon Energy Goes Mainstream The clean energy will become the dominant energy source by 2040. 2015~2050, the clean energy demand is predicted to increase by 1.8 billion tons of coal equivalent, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. The proportion of the clean energy increases from 7.3% to 60% and the carbon emissions will be halved.
3.5 7% 3 14% d alent) nn vv 2.5 22% 2 17% 1.5
1 rimary energy dema energy rimary on tons of coal equi tons of coal on ii PP 0.5 9% (bill 24% 0 4% 2015 2025 2035 2050 3%
Russian Far East Mongolia North China Northeast China Japan ROK DPRK Coal Oil Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Others Primary energy demand in Northeast Asian countries/areas Primary energy demand mix in Northeast Asia in 2050 11 2.1 Outlook of Energy Demand Electricity Dominates in Final Energy Consumption In around 2030, electricity will replace oil and become the largest energy source in the final energy consu m pti on. 200515~2050, the propo rtio n of eeeclectric ity in the final eeegynergy consu mp tio n will incceserease from 21.5% to 49%. The electricity in North and Northeast China, Japan, and the ROK will contribute 53%, 41%, 48%, and 41% of their final energy consumptions, respectively.
2.5 60%
50% 2.0 in end-use category valent) yy 40% 1.5 30% 1.0 nergy demand nergy ergy demand b demand ergy ons of equi coal on of electricity ee tt ii
nn 20%
0.5
(billion 10% End-use e The proport 0.0 0% 2015 2025 2035 2050 Coal Oil Natural gas Electric energy Thermal energy Others Electrification rate
End use energy demand and electrification rate in Northeast Asia 12 2.2 Outlook of Electricity Demand RltilRelatively FtFast Increase in Elect ri cit y DdDemand, Per CitlCapital CtiConsumption Differs Among Countries In 2050, the electricity consumption and the peak load will double. 2015~2050, the electricity consumption will increase from 3.3 to 6.1 PWh, with an average annual growth rate of 1.8%. The peak load will increase from 520 to 1,040 GW, with an growth rate of 2.0%. In 2050, per capita electricity consumption will double the number in 2015. In 2050, per capita electricity consumption will be 12 MWh, equivalent to the current level of the developed countries. The number in Far East and the ROK will exceed 14 MWh; the number in North and Northeast China and Japan will exceed 10 MWh; the number will be 6.8 and 7.8 MWh in the DPRK and Mongolia. 7 16
6 14 12 5
d (PWh) 10 capita (MWh) capita nn 4 rr 8 3 6 2 4 Electricity dema Electricity 1 lectricity demand demand pe lectricity 2 EE 0 0 2015 2025 2035 2050 2015 2025 2035 2050
Russian Far East Mongolia North China Northeast China Japan ROK DPRK Russian Far East Mongolia North China Northeast China Japan ROK DPRK Prediction of electricity demand in Northeast Asia Per capita electricity consumption in Northeast Asia 13 2.2 Outlook of Electricity Demand Demand is Concentrated China, Japan and the ROK will continue to be the load centers. In 2050, the electricity consumption in North and Northeast China, Japan and the ROK will be 3.8, 1.3 and 0.73 PWh, respectively; the combined consumption accounts for 95% of the total number in Northeast Asia. 2015~2050, the annual growth rate of the electricity consumption in the DPRK and Mongolia exceeds 5%, the growth rate is higher than 2% in the Far East and North and Northeast China, and is around 1% in Japan and the ROK.
2015
2025
2035
2050
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Russian Far East Mongolia North China Northeast China Japan ROK DPRK
Electricity consumption mix of Northeast Asian countries/areas 14 2.3 Outlook of Electricity Supply RidRapid DlDevelopment of Clean Energy GiGeneration The competitiveness of clean energy in electricity generation is rapidly improving. 2010~2017, the PV cost in China and Japan decreases 70%, and the onshore wind power cost decreases 20% and 10%, respectively. In 2017, the costs of utility-scale PV and onshore wind power are close to fossil fueled generation, globally. The bid price for some PV projects in China is lower than 5 US cents/kWh. Before 2025, it is predicted PV and wind power will have stronger competitiveness than fossil fuels. The large-scale energy storage technology and the grid operation control technology will develop rapidly, making clean energy the dominant electricity supply. Around 2030, clean energy will replace fossil fuels and become the dominant energy in electricity generation. By 2050, the installed capacity and electricity generation of clean energy will increase to 80% and
70% of the totals. 35 33.1 28.5 28 24.5
21 15.7 15.9 14 12.6 7.1 7 7.1 8 4.64.6 6 6 5.65.5 5 7 44 3 4 0 Hydropower Onshore Offshore PV Solar thermal Biomass Geothermy wind power wind power power 2010 2015 2050 Trend of cost variation of Global clean energy (cent/kWh) 15 2.3 Outlook of Electricity Supply Clean Energy is Mainly Developed in Utility-Scale Development of clean energy bases according to exploiting conditions. It is suggested to develop hydro and wind power bases in the Russian Far East, wind and solar power bases in Mongolia, and wind power bases in North and Northeast China. Japan, the ROK and the DPRK is advised to develop domestic clean energy and also increase the clean electricity import.
100%
80%
67% 74% 70% 72% 60% 79% 93%
40%
20% 33% 26% 30% 28% 21% 7% 0% Russian Far East Mongolia North and Northeast Japan ROK DPRK China Proportion of power generated from fossil fuel Proportion of power generated from clean energy
Electricity generation from clean energy in Northeast Asian countries/areas in 2050 16 1N1. New Opport un ities f or C ooperati on
2. Outlook of Energy and Electricity
3. Grid Interconnection Planning Schemes
4. Comprehensive Benefits 3.1 GEI Leads to Clean Development The essence of sustitainabl e dldevelopment isclean dldevelopment , the directi on is “Two RlReplacemen t”ts” “Clean Replacement” on production: replace fossil fuels with the clean alternatives, such as solar, wind. “Electricity Replacement” on consumption: use clean electricity to eliminate the dependence on fossil fuels. Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) is the carrier of clean development and also a modern energy system aiming at global production, allocation and utilization of clean energy. The essence is “Smart grid + UHV grid + Clean energy”. The sustainable development and energy cooperationin in Northeast Asia require us to follow the concept of GEI, accelerate the construction of the NEAEI, and support the regional energy and electricity demands in a clean and green way.
Basic platform Backbone grid Dominant energy
Smart UHV Clean Grid Grid Energy
18 3.2 Blueprint of NEAEI DlDevelopment Stra tegy of the NEAEI: Because the imbalance between energy supply and demand and the imbalance of clean energy distribution exist simultaneously, the optimal wide-area energy allocation is required in Northeast Asia. Under this circumstance, it is important to build large clean energy bases and a high capacity, high efficiency and interconnected clean electricity allocation network to ensure a safe and reliable energy supply. In addition, the joint ppp,articipation, cooperative construction and coordinated development of all countries are also necessary before the clean, low-carbon and efficient NEAEI can be built. The NEAEI will then ensure the multi-energy complementarity and regional co-construction in Northeast Asia. Finally, the NEAEI will guarantee the pp,eace, stability, development and pppyrosperity in the regg,ion, and achieve the coordinated and sustainable development between economy and society, resource and environment, humans and nature. Accelerating the clean energy utilization, and ensuring the regional energy security based on green development Improving the electrification, and realizing the low-carbon and efficient development relying on electricity Enhancing the optimal allocation of clean energy, and building a win-win cooperation via grid interconnection 19 3.3 Distribution of Clean Energy Bases
Based on the characteristics, distribution and exploiting conditions of clean energy, the proposed key projects include: 2 hydropower, 19 wind power and 5 solar energy bases. Total technical potential: 990GW.
The Lena River Hydropower The Russia Far East Wind Power
The Heilongjiang - Southeast Amur River Mongolia Hydropower Wind Power
South Mogolia Solar Power North China Wind Power Japan, ROK and DPRK Wind Power Large Clean Energy Bases in Northeast Asia 20 3.3 Distribution of Clean Energy Bases Hydropower Bases: mainly distributed along the Lena and the Heilongjiang-Amur Rivers, with the technical potential of 40GW and 14.5GW, respectively. 10% of the pottiltential has been utilized .
The Lena River Basin
The He ilong jiang- Amur River Basin
Main Hydropower Bases in Northeast Asia 21 3.3 Distribution of Clean Energy Bases
Wind Power Bases: mainly distributed over the Sea of Okhotsk, the Sakhalin Island, Southeast Mongolia, and North and Northeast China. Total 19 bases are planned with a technical potential of 430GW. No. Site Location Country Potential (MW) 1 Coast of the Sea of Okhotsk Russia 66,000 2 Sovetskaya Gavan Russia 31,200 3 Alexandrovsk Russia 30,000 4 Makarov Russia 9,600 ① 5 South Sakhalinsk Russia 13,200
③ 6 Choybalsan Mongolia 21,000 ② 7 Erdenetsagaan Mongolia 27,000 ⑥ ④ ⑩ ⑤ ⑦ ⑨ ⑫ 8 Sainshand Mongolia 10,500 ⑪ ⑯ ⑧ ⑭ 9 ⑬ Choir Mongolia 13,500 ⑮ ⑲ 10 Neidegler Mongolia 9,900
⑰ 11 Hinggan League China 36,000 ⑱ 12 JilinChina 38,700 13 Chifeng China 18,000 14 Xilinhot China 22,800 15 Zhangbei China 19,500 16 WkkWakkanai Japan 15, 000 17 Suzu Japan 10,500 18 Gangneung ROK 18,000 19 Kilju DPRK 16,500 Main Wind Power Bases in Northeast Asia 22 3.3 Distribution of Clean Energy Bases Solar Energy Bases: mainly distributed at the Gobi area in the south of Mongolia. Total 5 bases are planned with a technical potential of 510GW.
Technical potential No. Site location Country (MW)
1 Begell Mongolia 100,000
2 Bogdo Mongolia 120,000
3 Bulgan Mongolia 100,000
4 Mandal-Ovoo Mongolia 92,000
5 Tavan Tolgoi Mongolia 93, 000
Main Solar Energy Bases in Northeast Asia
23 3.4 Plan of Installed Capacity
Low-Carbon Scenario: The countries are accelerating the transition towards a clean energy system and a low-carbon power idindust ry. Clean energy resources are fllfullyutilized toreduce filfossil flfuels to themiiinimum. The electricity exchange within the region will be significantly developed.
Scenario Thermal Nuclear Clean Energy Electricity Exchange
Significantly Large scale of Low-Carbon Scenario Steadily shutdown High reduced development
In Low-Carbon Scenario, the total installed capacity 100% 90% is expected to reach 2.44 TW by 2025, and the clean 80% 70% nario energy capacity accounts for 80%. ee 60% 50% 40% 30% Clean energy installed capacity（%） 20% Carbon Sc
Scenario -- 10% 0%
2015 2025 2035 2050 Low Russia Far Mongolia North Northeast Japan ROK DPRK East China China Thermal Hydro Solar Wind Nuclear Others Low-carbon 30% 46% 65% 80% 24 3.4 Plan of Installed Capacity
In around 2030, the capacity of clean energy is expected to exceed the capacity of fossil fuel in Northeast Asia. In 2050, the proportion of thermal plants will reduce to 20.3% with a total number of 490 GW. The nuclear power capacity will reduced to 38.55 GW, accounting for 1.6% of the total. The wind and solar capacity will significantly increase to 920 GW and 670 GW, respectively, accounting for 37.6% and 27.5% of the total. The 250 GW hydropower plants will mainly locate in North and Northeast China, and the Russian Far East, accounting for 10.1% of the total.
8.1% 9.0% 21.8% 27.5% 13.3% 54.1% 10.1% 37.6% 28.9% 17.2% 35.0% 20.3%
1.6% 5.7% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 1.6% Thermal Hydro Solar Wind Nuclear Others Thermal Hydro Solar Wind Nuclear Others Thermal Hydro Solar Wind Nuclear Others Capacity Mix in 2025 Capacity Mix in 2035 Capacity Mix in 2050 25 3.4 Plan of Installed Capacity
Russian Far East and Mongolia: will be the clean energy bases in Northeast Asia. By 2050, the capacities are expected to reach 140 and 56 GW, respectively, accounting for 5.8% and 2.3% of the total capacity in Northeast Asia. North and Northeast China: The clean energy bases in China are located in the Northeast, inner Mongolia and Shanxi, and the load centers include Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong. The total capacity in 2050 is expected to be 1.5 TW, accounting for 61.5% of the total. Japan, ROK and DPRK: will be the load centers and require domestic clean energy development and increased electricity import. The thermal and nuclear power plants in Japan and ROK will be gradually shut. In 2050, the capacities will be 460, 210 and 70 GW, respectively, accounting for 18.7%, 8.7% and 3.0% of the total.
59.6% 63.0% 61.5% 22.1% 22.2% 18.7% 11.3% 9.9% 8.7%
2.3% 0.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 4.5% 2.1% 5.8% 3.0% Russian Far East Mongolia North & Northeast China Japan ROK DPRK Capacity by countries/areas in 2025 Capacity by countries/areas in 2035 Capacity by countries/areas in 205026 3.5 Potential for Regional Interconnection
International Electricity Exchange is Expanding. The electricity exchange within the region in 2025, 2035 and 2050 is expected to reach 11.75 GW, 59.75 GW and 107.75 GW, respectively el .
Russia Mongolia Far East 2025: 2GW 2035: 10GW 2025: 0 2025: 0 2050: 18GW 2035: 80GW 2035: 8GW 2050: 16GW 2025: 4GW 2050: 8GW 2035: 12GW 2050: 20GW
2025: 3.75GW 2025: 2.5GW 2025: 2GW 2035: 6GW North & 2035: 3.75GW 2035: 7.5 GW 2050: 11.75GW 2050: 11.5GW 2050: 6GW Northeast DPRK ROK Japan China
2025: 2GW 2035: 18GW 2050: 18GW 2025: 0 2035: 0 2050: 16GW 27 3.5 Potential for Regional Interconnection In 2050,theeliilectricity export in MliMongoliaand RiRussia will reach 20 GW and 42 GW, respectilively. The Russian Far East will not only export electricity to the neighboring countries but also deliver clean electricity to the western grid of Russia. North and Northeast China is outstanding in location and resources, exporting 9.75GW in 2050. In 2050, electricity import in Japan, the ROK and the DPRK will reach 40 GW, 23.5 GW and 8.25 GW.
Power Flow in Northeast Asia in 2050 28 3.6 Interconnection Structure
The “Three-ring and one-line” grid interconnection pattern: By 2015, five corridors will be commissioned, namely, Mongolia-China-ROK-Japan, China-Russia, Russia-Japan, China-DPRK-ROK and Russia-DPRK-ROK. In the north, thecorridorsreceivehyypdropower from the Russian Far East and wind power from the Sea of Okhotsk and Sakhalin; in the west, they receive the wind power in North and Northwest China, and the solar and wind power in Southeastern Gobi of Mongolia; in the south, they deliver electricity to the load centers in North China, the ROK and Japan.
Overall Structure of the NEAEI 29 3.7 NEAEI Schematic 2025 Develop the wind and solar power in Mongolian Gobi, and the wind power in Northeast China and Sakhalin in Russia. Build 5 interconnection projects with a cross-border electricity exchange of 11.75 GW, including Mongolia-North China, Northeast China- DPRK-ROK, North China-ROK-Japp,an, Russian Far East-Japan, and Northeast China- DPRK. New Interconnection Project by 2025 Length of route Voltage level Transmission Project Countries passed (km) (kV) capacity (GW) Mongolia-Tianjin DC Transmission Project Mongolia, China 1,500 ±660 4 Weihai-Incheon, Goseung-Matsue Transmission Project China, ROK, Japan 830 ±500 2 Liaoning-Pyongyang-Seoul Three-terminal Flexible DC Project China, DPRK, ROK 500 ±500 3 Yunfeng Back-to-back Project China, DPRK 0 500 0.75
Sakhalin-Hokkaido DC Transmission Project Russia, Japan 300 ±500 2 30 3.7 NEAEI Schematic 2035 Build 7 new interconnection projects with a cross-border electricity exchange of 59.75 GW, including Russian Far East-North China, Russian Far East-DPRK-ROK, Mongolia- North China, Northeast China-ROK, North China-ROK-Japan, and Russian Far East- Japan. New Interconnection Project during 2025-2035 Length of route Voltage level Transmission Project Countries passed (km) (kV) capacity (GW) Mongolia-SCiijShandong DC Transmission Project I Mongolia, Chi na 1001,700 ±800 8
Shandong-Busan-Kyoto Three-terminal Flexible DC Project China, ROK, Japan 2,000 ±800 8
Liaoning-Seoul DC Transmission Project I/II China, DPRK, ROK 750/750 ±660 8
LRiLena River-HbiDCTHebei DC Transm iss ion P roj ect RiChiRussia, China 2,700 ±800 8
Khabarovsk-Chongjin-Daegu Three-terminal Flexible DC Project Russia, DPRK, ROK 2,300 ±800 8
± Sakhalin-Tokyo DC Transmission Project Russia, Japan 2,000 800 8 31 3.7 NEAEI Schematic 2050 Build 6 new interconnection projects with a cross-border electricity exchange of 110 GW, including Russian Far East-North China, Mongolia-North China, Russian Far East-Japan, North China-Japan, Northeast China-Japan, and China-DPRK-ROK.
New Interconnection Project during 2035-2050 Length of route Voltage level Transmission Project Countries passed (km) (kV) capacity (GW) Mongolia-Shandong DC Transmission Project II Mongolia, China 1,900 ±800 8 Shandong-Fukuoka DC Transmission Project China, Japan 1,600 ±800 8 EIM-Kaesong-Gwangju Three-terminal Flexible DC Project China, DPRK, ROK 1,600 ±800 8 Jilin-Osaka DC Transmission Project China, DPRK, ROK, Japan 2,000 ±800 8 Lena-Shandong DC Transmission Project Russia, China 2,700 ±800 8 ± Okhotsk-Nagano DC Transmission Project Russia, Japan 2,700 800 8 32 3.8 Key Projects
Yunfeng 500 kV Back-to-back Project Deliver the electricity from Northeast China to the DPRK, solving the short-term eliihlectricity shortage i ssue i ihDPRKn the DPRK. Total investment: 330 million USD.
Northeast China
Yunfeng
DPRK
33 3.8 Key Projects
Mongolia-Tianjin ±660 kV DC Transmission Project Deliver the electricity from Mongolia to North China, transforming the resources into economic benefits in Mongolia. Total investment: 1.7 billion USD, transmission cost: 1.2 US cents/kWh.
Choyr
Gobi desert 1500km/ 4GW
Tianjin
34 3.8 Key Projects
Liaoning-Pyongyang-Seoul ±500 kV Three-terminal Flexible DC Project Support the demand growth in the ROK and DPRK and mitigate the electricity shortage. Total investment: 900 million USD, transmission cost: 0.85 US cents/kWh.
Liaoning
500km/ 3GW Pyongyang
Seoul
35 3.8 Key Projects
Weihai-Incheon, Goseung-Matsue ±500 kV DC Transmission Project Deliver clean energy to Japan to meet the short-term demand and increase the diversity of energy supply. Weihai -Inchoen part: investment 1.4 billi on USD, transmi ssi on pri ce 1.7 US cents/k Wh ; Goseung-Matsue part: investment 1.63 billion USD, transmission price 1.9 US cents/kWh.
366km/ Weihai 2GW Incheon Goseung 460km/ 2GW Matsue
36 3.8 Key Projects
Sakhalin-Hokkaido ±500 kV DC Transmission Project Develop the clean energy in the Russian Far East, transforming the resources into economic benefit s. M eet th e d emand i n J apan and ensure th e di versit y of el ect ri cit y suppl y. Total investment: 670 million USD, transmission cost: 0.96 US cents/kWh.
Sakhalin
300km/ 2GW
Hokkaido
37 1N1. New Opport un ities f or C ooperati on
2. Outlook of Energy and Electricity
3. Grid Interconnection Planning Schemes
4. Comprehensive Benefits 4.1 Cooperation and Political Trust
Mechanism for Cooperation Promote the cooperation among the Northeast Asian countries/areas in clean energy utilization, technical innovation, construction, investing and financing, and eventually, achieve the collaborative development and share common benefits. Enhance Mutual Political Trust Enhance the bilateral/multilateral partnership, providing guarantees for the regional cooperation.
Foundation Enhance Political Trust Build Interconnection Cooperation Mechanism Regional Electricity Exchange Policy-Making Coordination Supply Reliability and Access to Electricity
TRUST INTERCONNECTION COORDINATION SECURITY
Promote Collaborative Development Ensure Energy Security Integration and Development Energy Supply Diversity Guaranteed Energy Security Common Prosperity Stimulation 39 4.2 Unified Market and Energy Security
Guarantee Energy Security AcAhihieve clean replacement, increase energy supply diversi ty, and reduce the dependence on energy import. In 2050, clean energy will contribute 60% of the total installed capacity, and the rate of energy self-sufficiency in the region will reach 82%. Expand Energy and Electricity Market in Northeast Asia Based on the grid interconnection, an unified energy and electricity market in Northeast Asia can beformed. Expand the scale of energy export within Northeast Asia, such as the energy export from the Russian Far East and Mongolia.
40 4.3 Infrastructure and Investment Attract Investments By 2050, the total investment in the NEAEI will reach 2.7 trillion USD. Stimulate the upstream and downstream industries, such as new energy, new materials, equipment manufacturing, electric vehicle, etc. Accelerate Regional Economic Development The clean-energy-related investments in Russia and Mongolia will reach 175.2 and 40 billion USD, respectively. The electricity export will bring additional revenue of 10.5 and 5 billion USD for the two countries. Investment Revenue from electricity export in electricity generation Mongolia 2.1 Trillion USD $ 5 Billion USD in power network Russia 600 Billion USD 10.5 Billion USD 41 4.4 Environmental Benefits
Solution to Climate Change By 2050, the clean energy generation in Northeast Asia is expected to reach 4.2 PWh equivalent to a replacement of 1.76 billion tons of coal, reducing the greenhouse gas emission of about 3.9
billion tons of CO2 equivalent. Ameliorated Environmental Pollution By 2050, the emission reduction achieved in Northeast Asia includes: 1.23 million tons of sulfur dioxide, 1.38 million tons of nitrogen oxides and 0.26 million tons of tiny particles. Reduce Greenhouse Reduce NO Emission Gas Emission 2
2025 2025 560 thousand tons/yr 1.7 billion tons CO2 eq./yr 2035 2035 890 thousand tons/yr 2.7 billion tons CO2 eq./yr 2050 2050 1230 thousand tons/yr 3.9 billion tons CO2 eq./yr 42 4.5 Social Benefits
Improve Accessibility to Electricity In 2050, electrification rate will exceed 49% and accessibility to electricity reach 100%. RdReduce Genera ting C os t In 2050, generation cost will reduce 2 US cents/kWh (compared to 2015) and the total save in electricity using will be 130 billion USD. Create Jobs By 2050, the construction of the NEAEI will create in total 24 million new jobs.
3000 2426 2500
2000 1800
1500 1274
1000
500
0 2025 2035 2050
New jobs created due to NEAEI (unit: 10 thousand) 43 Conclusions
Energy and electricity cooperation is the core for the regional cooperation and clean development in Northeast Asia. Due to the economic globalization, the key of cooperation is to establish the NEAEI.In spp,ecific, the first emphasize should belaid on reppglacing the traditional energy development mode relyyging on fossil fuel and local balance by a new mode focusing on clean energy and wide-area optimal allocation. Other important contents to ensure the energy security and sustainable development in Northeast Asia include the construction of large-scale clean energy bases, the establishment of a strong interconnected grid, and the energy transition in the countries. The NEAEI is of great value and prospect, and its implementation is necessary for the region. To achieve that, the consensus must be reached among the stakeholders and their efforts must be concentrated on enhancing the policy-making coordination and improving the mechanism for bilateral and multilateral cooperation.Tobespp,ecific, a regional electricity market should be built in Northeast Asia, innovations should be made in investing and financing aspects, and the pilot projects of clean energy utilization and grid interconnection should be implemented in the near future. Though the “green” and low-carbon development of energy and the regional cooperation, a bright future with shared benefits is foreseen in Northeast Asia. 44 Thank you!