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Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies University of Washington - , , , ... - - ..... ,, • , " , , , ,, , , , , ... -- - ... PAl Fie oc'" I Northeast Asian Security Cooperative: Opportunities and Obstacles for a Multilateral U.S. Approach to Asia-Pacific Diplomacy Task Force 2010 Task Force 2010 2 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia HENRY M. JACKSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES TASK FORCE 2010 Evaluator: Ambassador Kenneth C. Brill Participants: Christopher Jones, Professor Jordan Swarthout, Coordinator Alex Cutler, Editor Jessica Kuhn Tamara Patton Paul Moroni Stephanie Kim Amanda Rynes Justin Rohrer Isar Mahanian Johanna Martinez Jenny Gawf Tiffany Martin Mirella Warren Julien Bezerra Task Force 2010 3 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia Table of Contents Overview Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………..Page 5 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………..Page 7 The Importance of Engaging in East Asia Page 8 The Most Pressing Issue Facing East Asia Page 12 The Best and Worst Case Scenarios Page 18 NEASCO: The Asiatic Multilateralism? Page 22 Regional Analysis Global Security Issues in North Korea By Jessica Kuhn……………………………………………..………………….Page 30 Analyzing the Potential of a Multilateral U.S. Security Approach to China and Greater East Asia 2010 – 2020 By Tamara Patton……………………………………………………………….Page 60 Mapping the U.S. Approach to China and the Implications for a New Security Paradigm in Northeast Asia By Paul Moroni………………………………………………………………….Page 84 Suggestions for American Action in the Absence of a Concrete Japanese Security Policy By Justin Rohrer………………………………………………………………..Page 112 Japanese Ballistic Missile Defense: Implications for Multilateralism in Northeast Asia By Amanda Rynes…………………………………….………………………..Page 130 The Republic of Korea: Understanding a 21st Century Partnership for Peace and Security in Northeast Asia By Stephanie Kim………………………………………………………………Page 154 Russia‘s Korean Dilemma and the Institutional Solution By Jordan Swarthout…………………………………………………………….Page 176 The Legacy of the Bush Administration in Northeast Asia By Isar Manahanian………………………………………………/……………Page 209 Anti-Americanism in Northeast Asia By Johanna Martinez……………………………………………………………Page 224 Sino-Indian Relations Task Force 2010 4 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia By Jenny Gawf…………………………………………………………….…..Page 245 Multilateralism Implications for NEASCO Based on the Implications of ASEAN By Tiffany Martin………………………………………...……………………..Page 264 Lessons from Europe By Mirella Warren……………………………………………………………..Page 294 Multilateral Organizations of Northeast Asia By Julien Bezerra………………………………………………………………Page 321 A Call for Cooperation: Why Should Northeast Asia Engage in Multilateralism? By Alex Cutler…………………………………………………………………Page 345 Task Force 2010 5 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia Executive Summary The proliferation of nuclear weapons presents a leading existential threat to the United States. The Democratic People‘s Republic of Korea (DPRK) poses the greatest current threat of proliferation and is at the nexus of a complex web of security issues in Northeast Asia. Left unchecked, the continued progress of North Korea on its nuclear weapon and missile programs jointly hold the potential to drive a regional arms race. Considering America‘s strong ties with regional allies and military presence, the U.S. currently is a resident power in the Northeast Asia. However, the increasing assertiveness and strength of regional powers makes clear that American influence is waning. To counter this security threat while maintaining U.S. influence in the region, this Task Force proposes the formation of the Northeast Asian Security Cooperative (NEASCO). The current effort in the form of the Six Party Talks remains mired in stalemate. An institutionalized security cooperative has the potential to coordinate the efforts of members in addressing security issues like the one in North Korea. By increasing military collaboration, mediating regional conflicts, and encouraging multilateral cooperation on arms control this organization can overcome the underlying problems currently stymieing resolution of the crisis. The United States ought to use the proposal of this organization as a demonstration of its commitment to multilateral cooperation and renunciation of past unilateral tendencies. The formalized NEASCO structure will prevent stormy relations or domestic politics from triggering a collapse of past agreements in a fashion similar to situation that precipitated the latest North Korean nuclear crisis. Regime change as the goal of American policy towards the DPRK must be dropped in order to make progress on denuclearization. North Korean concerns about energy Task Force 2010 6 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia security should be harnessed as a catalyst for increasing cooperation and easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. should acknowledge the sensitivities of regional powers over safeguarding sovereignty and focus the proposed organization on security and economic matters. Such a grave and intractable problem demands bold action. NEASCO offers benefits to all of the regional powers, and the United States in particular, as the best solution for leading the world away from the brink of nuclear proliferation or war. Jordan Swarthout Coordinator Task Force 2010 7 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia Task Force 2010 8 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia Introduction By Amanda Rynes, Justin Rohrer and Alex Cutler Task Force 2010 9 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia The Importance of Engaging in East Asia By Amanda Rynes In the coming decade a shift in the United States‘ focus to the growing security concerns in East Asia will be critical to the preservation of national security. The threat of a rogue nation gaining the ability to successfully deploy weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the emergence of global economies with the capacity to not only reach but surpass the United States and the eroding American foothold in the region all illustrate the need to reestablish East Asia as our primary concern. East Asia is home to around 40 percent of the total global population. As a region, they represent approximately 54.2 percent of the global GDP and around 43.7 percent of world trade.1 Growing Security Concerns In the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review released in late January, the Department of Defense expressed that its key security concerns for the coming years included the spread of weapons of mass destruction, rising powers with sophisticated weapons and the danger of failed or failing states. Also included was the need for the U.S. to account for the ―current global trends that are reshaping the international landscape, complicating the ability to exercise statecraft and overseas relations‖.2 These critical security concerns can be seen developing in regions throughout East Asia at an incredible rate. The emergence of a nuclear program in the hands of a notoriously rogue government not only poses a threat to U.S. security but also to the security of our allies in the region, predominantly that of Japan and South Korea. Growing discontent with the presence of U.S. military personnel within the region is just one example of the aforementioned global trends which, if they continue, will hamper the United States‘ ability to 1 APEC Regional Trade and Investment, www.apec.org/aboutapec 2 Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S. Department of Defense 9 Task Force 2010 10 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia react in the event of a crisis in the area. The United States must recognize the importance of these issues now and begin planning how to maintain its influence in the coming years. The security concerns present on the Korean peninsula are perfect examples of a coming crisis that, if not dealt with properly, could result in devastating losses of lives and infrastructure in the East Asian region. The Department of Defense also explicitly stated in the section pertaining to defense strategy that ―…the US faces a complex and uncertain security landscape in which the pace of change continues to accelerate. Not since the fall of the Soviet Union or the end of World War Two has the international terrain been affected by such far reaching and consequential shifts. The rise of new powers, growing influence of non-state actors and spread of WMD along with other destructive technologies pose profound challenges to international order.‖3 Two of the issues mentioned specifically were the rise of China and the proliferation of WMD. To expand on these issues, the Department of Defense discussed the refusal to follow international norms that has prompted the Democratic People‘s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to continue testing their ballistic missile systems as well as China‘s goal of long-term, comprehensive military modernization. This includes the development and fielding of ―large numbers of advanced medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, new attack submarines equipped with advanced weapons and advances fighter aircraft.‖4 As these nations continue pursuing increased military capacity, other nations in the region will have no choice but to respond. The United States must be prepared to take action and work towards establishing ties between nations in the region in order to preserve regional peace and stability. If the U.S. allows itself to fall out of a position of influence in the region, there will be little hope of coming to a peaceful agreement. 3 QDR 27 44 QDR 54 Task Force 2010 11 Multilateralism in Northeast Asia Economic Ramifications East Asia is home to two of the largest
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