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Report 2020:1 Swedish Voting Behavior 1956-2018

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Report 2020:1 Swedish Voting Behavior 1956-2018 Swedish National Election Studies Department of Political Science Report University of Gothenburg 2020.02.04 2020:1 www.valforskning.pol.gu.se Swedish Voting Behavior 1956–2018 Henrik Oscarsson Sören Holmberg Valforskningsprogrammets rapportserie Sedan 1950-talet genomför forskare knutna till Valforskningsprogrammet i Göteborg empiriska undersökningar av hur den svenska demokratin mår och utvecklas. Rapport- serien är vår viktigaste publikationskanal för att bidra till samhällets kunskapsförsörj- ning på demokratiområdet. Målsättningen är att sprida grundläggande fakta och forsk- ningsresultat som rör val och väljarbeteende till en bred publik av forskare, studenter, journalister, politiker och allmänhet. The Swedish National Election Studies Program working report series Since the 1950s, the researchers associated with the Swedish National Election Studies Program at the Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, conducts empirical research on the well-being and development of the Swedish democracy. The working report series is our main publication outlets. The aim is to publish basic facts and research results about elections and voting behavior to a broad audience of researchers, students, journalists, politicians and the public. Refer to this report Oscarsson, Henrik & Sören Holmberg (2020) Swedish Voting Behavior. Swedish National Election Studies, Working Paper Series. Report 2020:1. University of Gothenburg, Department of Political Science. Editor of the SNES working report series: Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson SNES Report 2020:1 Report 2020:1 Swedish Voting Behavior 1956-2018 HENRIK OSCARSSON Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg SÖREN HOLMBERG Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg Abstract The results presented in the following set of figures and tables stem from the Swedish National Election Studies Program (SNES). The Program was initiated by Jörgen Westerståhl and Bo Särlvik in the mid 1950s, shortly after the Michigan Election Studies Project began. The first studies were done in conjunction with the local elections in 1954 and the parliamentary election in 1956. In all national elections since 1956 – including the ATP-referendum in 1957, the Nuclear Power-referendum in 1980, the EU-referendum in 1994, the Euro-referendum in 2003 and the European Parliament elections in 1995, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 – a large representative sample of eligible voters has been interviewed. The basic design in studies (1976-) is a rolling two wave panel in which half of the sample has been interviewed in connection with the previous election, and the other half in connection with the succeeding election. The 2018 Election Study used the same design as previous studies. The incoming panel (2014-2018; n=7 700) come from the 2014 national and European parliamentary election study, and the outgoing panel (2018-2022; n=7 700) consisted of a new sample from the national population registry (RTB). The 2018 election study included a pre- and post-election component, where the pre-election respondents were contacted again after the election. Importantly, in the period 2014-2018, the mode of data collection has changed from live interviews (face to face and telephone) to a combination of mail back and web questionnaires. This mode change make it possible to increase the sample size considerably but it may at the same time potentially affect point estimates in some but not all time series reported here. In the 2018 Election Study the gross response rate was 46,4 per cent, and the net response rate 47,2 per cent. Unless noted otherwise, all results presented in the report are unweighted. For response rates in previous studies, please see Report 2015:02. The early Election Studies were directed by Jörgen Westerståhl (1954–1956), Bo Särlvik (1954–1973) and Olof Petersson (1973–1976). The most recent studies have been directed by Mikael Gilljam (1985–1994), Sören Holmberg (1979–2010) and Henrik Oscarsson (2002–2018). 3 SNES Report 2020:1 4 SNES Report 2020:1 Turnout Figure 1 Turnout in Swedish Riksdag Elections 1921–2018 (per cent) 100 91,8 91,4 90,8 89,9 90 89,3 85,9 90,7 86,786,8 87,2 84,6 82,7 88,3 86,0 82,0 85,8 79,8 83,9 80 81,4 75,4 79,1 80,1 77,4 70 71,9 67,4 70,3 68,6 60 54,2 50 53,0 40 30 20 10 0 Comment: The results show official turnout among registered voters. Source: Valmyndigheten 5 SNES Report 2020:1 Election Results Table 1 Swedish Election Results 1976–2018 (per cent) party 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Left party (Left) 4,8 5,6 5,6 5,4 5,9 4,5 6,2 12,0 8,4 5,9 5,6 5,7 8,0 Social Democrats (Soc.Dem) 42,7 43,2 45,6 44,7 43,2 37,7 45,2 36,4 39,9 35,0 30,7 31,0 28,3 Green party (Gr.) - - 1,6 1,5 5,5 3,4 5,0 4,5 4,6 5,2 7,3 6,9 4,4 Centre party (Cen.) 24,1 18,1 15,5 10,1 11,3 8,5 7,7 5,1 6,2 7,9 6,6 6,1 8,6 Liberal party (Lib.) 11,1 10,6 5,9 14,2 12,2 9,1 7,2 4,7 13,4 7,5 7,0 5,4 5,5 Christian Democrats (Ch.Dem) 1,4 1,4 1,9 2,3 2,9 7,2 4,1 11,8 9,1 6,6 5,6 4,6 6,3 Conservative party (Con.) 15,6 20,3 23,6 21,3 18,3 21,9 22,4 22,9 15,3 26,2 30,1 23,3 19,8 New Democracy (NYD) - - - - - 6,7 1,2 - - - - - - Sweden Democrats (Swe.Dem) - - - - 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,4 1,4 2,9 5,7 12,9 17,5 Feminist initiative (FI) - - - - - - - - - 0,7 0,4 3,1 0,5 Minor Parties 0,3 0,8 0,3 0,5 0,7 0,9 0,7 2,2 1,7 2,1 1,0 1,0 1,1 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Turnout 91,8 90,7 91,4 89,9 86,0 86,7 86,8 81,4 80,1 82,0 84,6 85,8 87,2 Comment: The election result for Sweden Democrats in the 1988 election was 0,02%. Source: Valmyndigheten 6 SNES Report 2020:1 Turnout Figure 2 Turnout in Swedish Riksdag Elections among Women and Men 1956–2018 (per cent) 100 94 94 92 92 93 93 90 88 88 88 90 87 87 94 87 86 88 92 93 92 92 84 82 91 83 89 81 87 86 86 86 80 85 85 84 85 82 81 82 78 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Men Women 0 1956 1960 1964 1968 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Source: Statistics Sweden 7 SNES Report 2020:1 Turnout Figure 3 Turnout in Swedish Riksdag Elections among Young, Middle Age and Older Voters 1956–2018 (per cent) 100 97 94 93 94 93 92 92 92 91 91 90 89 90 90 90 90 87 88 88 89 90 93 92 93 92 90 90 81 91 90 89 88 88 87 87 88 87 87 87 84 84 80 84 83 83 82 80 78 79 77 77 76 70 72 73 72 72 70 70 67 60 50 40 30 20 Young Voters 10 Middle Age Voters Older Voters 0 1956 1960 1964 1968 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Comment: The turnout information is checked (validated) against official records. Data from Swedish National Election Studies. Young first-time voters were 21-25 years old 1956-1968, 19-22 1970-1973 and 18-21 since 1976. Middle age voters are 41-50 years old while older voters are 61-70 years old. Responsible for the analysis of turnout is Per Hedberg. Please note: The mode changed in 2018 from face-to-face to mail/web-questionnaires. Source: The Swedish National Election Studies 8 SNES Report 2020:1 Turnout Figure 4 Turnout in Swedish Riksdag Elections among Industrial Workers and Upper Middle Class White Collar Workers 1976–2018 (per cent) 100 98 97 94 94 93 93 92 93 91 91 90 89 90 90 90 88 89 85 80 83 83 82 81 82 79 76 70 74 72 60 50 40 30 20 10 Upper Middle Class 1 Industrial Workers 1 Upper Middle Class 2 Industrial Workers 2 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Comment: The turnout information is checked (validated) against official records. Data from Swedish National Election Studies. Responsible for the analysis of turnout is Per Hedberg. Version 1 is based on a coding of occupational status from open-ended responses and version 2 is based on respondents’ self-classification into pre-formulated categories of occupation. Please note: The mode changed in 2018 from face-to-face to mail/web-questionnaires. Source: The Swedish National Election Studies 9 SNES Report 2020:1 Turnout Figure 5 Turnout in Swedish Riksdag Elections among Voters with Different Degrees of Political Interest 1960–2018 (per cent) 100 96 96 96 96 97 96 95 95 95 95 94 95 92 93 96 90 90 94 94 89 89 90 93 94 93 85 92 92 91 93 90 89 89 88 89 90 89 90 89 88 88 89 87 88 80 84 84 85 85 83 83 82 83 80 80 78 76 77 77 70 75 75 75 72 70 67 67 65 60 64 63 59 50 53 52 51 40 30 20 Very interested Fairly interested 10 Not particulary interested Not at all interested 0 1960 1964 1968 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 Comment: The turnout information is checked (validated) against official records.
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