ELECTIONS ’14

A Mundus International Journal

Elections ’14 is a journal of six issues, which monitors and analyses the elections to the and the Swedish in 2014. The journal has been specifically developed for foreign missions.

PART 6: POST-ELECTIONS - THE ROAD AHEAD October, 2014

Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

ELECTIONS ’14

A Mundus International Journal

2014 marks an important political year in with elections to the European Parliament on May 25 and the national elections being held on September 14. The series has been specifically developed as a tool for political reporting of foreign missions and contains exclusive research and analyses. introduction ...... 2 the 2014 riksdag election ...... 3 The campaign ...... 3 The election ...... 4 The ...... 4 The aftermath ...... 5 work in the riksdag ...... 6 government policy ...... 8 Foreign policy in the Statement of Government Policy ...... 9 the cabinet ...... 9 At the ministries ...... 14 local elections ...... 16 ...... 16 Göteborg ...... 17 Malmö ...... 18 the path forward ...... 18 appendix 1 ...... 19 references ...... 20

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Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

INTRODUCTION 2014 has been a major electoral year for the Swedes. The May election saw the Greens becoming Sweden’s second largest party in the European Parliament and the and the Feminist Initiative gaining their first seats in Brussels. The September elections marked the end of eight years of centre-conservative rule in Sweden and saw the Sweden Democrats becoming the third biggest party in the Riksdag after successfully managing to pit an anti-immigrant sentiment against support for traditional welfare state policies in the election campaign.

This year, Swedish politics has witnessed fragmentation of the electorate resulting a decline in support for the formerly dominant parties - the Social Democrats and the Moderates - in favour of the Sweden Democrats and, to a lesser extent, the Feminist Initiative. While these two parties are very different, they share an emphasis on single issues rather than classical left-against-right politics. The Social Democrats and Moderates are struggling to adapt and to develop a better understanding of why voters are making the switches to these parties. Neither party managed to capture the voters' growing engagement in issues such as the environment, gender equality, anti-racism and immigration. The rise in support for the Sweden Democrats has created post-electoral complications and raised voices for the political parties to engage in a debate on the country’s immigration- and integration policies.

Swedish politics, which has been fairly static for the past few years, is demonstrating powerful political movements, which the established political parties are struggling to adapt to. At a time when a new election cannot yet be taken off the table, voices are being heard to end the bloc politics that for decades has locked Sweden’s largest parties into left and right coalitions. It remains to be seen how this will affect Sweden’s long-established political and intellectual identity.

With ’s announcement that he would step down as party leader on election night, leaving the Alliance de-facto without a leader, the Social Democrats with historically low electoral support and the Sweden Democrats becoming the third biggest party in the Riksdag, a fog of uncertainty swept in over the Swedish political landscape. For the first time ever Sweden will have a minority coalition government led by the Social Democrats and the . The outcome of the election has thus increased the level of uncertainty surrounding Sweden’s future domestic policies.

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THE 2014 RIKSDAG ELECTION The campaign After ten years as party leader and eight years as Prime Minister, the wear and tear of governing was starting to take its toll and even right-wing pundits were admitting that Fredrik Reinfeldt and his Finance Minister, , were running out of ideas. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of a cautious and complicated party political environment (following the party leader challenges the party had experienced) the Social Democrats united around Stefan Löfven and managed to put together a decent election campaign. The campaign may not have been a show of vision, but rather underscored that the Social Democrats could be trusted again. Education had risen as one of the voters’ most important issues – not least in the light of Sweden’s free fall in the Pisa-evaluations1 last December. The Social Democrats were perceived to be the party with the best policies on education and this probably benefitted them in the election. The issue of education also tied in with the wider concerns voters had about public sector reform.

As the election campaign entered its final phase, political journalists complained that it had been so predictable that they were contemplating changing their jobs. The Moderates were struggling to gain momentum in the election campaign (having lost steam with a weak result in the EP election), but there were some signs they had not given up hope. Towards the end of the election campaign, the Moderates released the ‘Building Sweden’ slogan and began negative campaigning, especially in the Stockholm region. And, in the final weeks, a ‘game changer’ did occur as Mr Reinfeldt delivered the traditional ‘summer speech’2 on Norrmalmstorg in Stockholm. The unexpectedly brought the unstable world situation into the election campaign, asking the Swedish people to ‘open their hearts’ for refugees fleeing from war and terror in the Middle East, while warning of the financial effects of increased immigration. This move was later heavily criticised for playing into the hands of the Sweden Democrats. The Sweden Democrats thanked Mr Reinfeldt with a huge ad in Sweden’s leading morning newspaper, Dagens Nyheter, claiming victory since even the Prime Minister had accepted their cost analysis of immigration. One leading SD-politician summarised the party’s election campaign by saying: ”It’s been a match against an open goal since Reinfeldt declared that there is no more money for welfare. To ask us to ’open our hearts’ means that we must ’open our wallets’. It’s been a very thankful task to explain this to our voters”.

The Green Party struggled throughout the campaign to put environmental issues in the spotlight, but ultimately failed. Instead it was the Feminist Initiative, described by one writer as the ‘option for the discontented middle class voter, that received much media attention in the last months. The Feminist Initiative, with its emphasis on feminism and anti-racism, portrayed itself as being diametrically opposed to the Sweden Democrats. The most important issue to voters this election was by far education. Sweden has been experiencing a severe ”Pisa shock” ever since last December. The war in eastern Ukraine did not affect the Riksdag election directly, despite efforts by the Moderate Party to highlight the unstable international situation in the election campaign.

1 The OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment 2 All party leaders deliver ‘summer speeches’ in late August every year 3

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The election The Social Democrats won the election in the sense that their leader, Stefan Löfven, became Prime Minister. However, from an historical perspective3 the party performed very poorly in the election (31 per cent) and failed to achieve its goal of 35 per cent. In fact, the Social Democrats’ voting numbers were only marginally better than those in the last election, which was viewed as a big failure. Stefan Löfven is the first Social Democratic prime minister who will govern with a weak political party in his back.

Contrary to expectations, the Green Party lost votes in the Riksdag election. The party had performed very well in the May European elections, setting the bar high for the September elections. The result of 6.8 per cent was a major disappointment for the Greens and weakened the party in its negotiations with the Social Democrats on government co-operation. The , which won 5.7 per cent of the vote, was disappointed as well, and the new Feminist party, which did well in the European elections, failed to make the 4 per cent threshold to the Riksdag this time. Nevertheless, Feminist Initiative will be represented at the local level; the party did well especially in Sweden’s big cities - Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö. Perhaps the lack of success at the national level can be credited to other parties’ ambition to properly deal with gender equality issues.

In the end, the Social Democrats managed to capture the general mood for change, ensuring that the red- greens became bigger than the incumbent Alliance government. Following the May EU elections, many commentators believed that Swedish voters were moving left and on to newer and trendier parties. This trend could not be detected in the Riksdag election. Due to the poor election results for the Left and Green parties – combined with the Feminists’ failure to enter the Riksdag – the election did not produce the ‘left- wing wave’ that many expected.

Instead, the major change in the 2014 election was the Sweden Democrats becoming Sweden’s third largest party. The Sweden Democrats first entered the Riksdag in 2010 with 5.7 per cent of the vote, received 9.7 per cent in the EP elections in the spring and more than doubled its support in the Riksdag election with 12.8 per cent of the vote. The Sweden Democrats were also the main reason for the Moderate Party’s disastrous result: every third Sweden Democrat vote came from the Moderates. The party retains its kingmaker role in the Riksdag but will have limited influence because no other party will co-operate with them. At the municipal and county council levels, however, they will be powerful: the party received over 20 per cent of the vote in many municipalities in southern Sweden. Still, although the Sweden Democrats will most certainly remain isolated from influence in the Riksdag, their continued success is sparking national debate. The fact that a xenophobic party with roots in the neo-Nazi movement has become Sweden's third largest party will become the big question for debate in Sweden in the aftermath of the election.

The Alliance The four-party Alliance formed by the Moderates, , and Christian Democrats which has led Sweden for eight years is now in opposition. This despite the fact that the Alliance government has been saluted for successfully navigating Sweden through the global financial crisis, generating economic growth over the last three years, and producing one of the healthiest economies in the OECD. Despite being the party most trusted to handle Sweden’s economy, the Moderates continued their disastrous trend from this spring’s EU elections, and lost almost eight percentage points compared to the 2010 Riksdag elections. But all Alliance parties lost votes when compared to the previous election and none of the

3 The Social Democrats commanded 45 per cent of the vote well into the 1990s 4

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smaller Alliance parties succeeded in picking up votes from the Moderates. The Alliance had lagged far behind the red-green parties in opinion polls but managed to close the gap leading up to the election. This was mainly due to the Alliance ability to demonstrate unity and by underscoring the divisions separating the red-green parties. Unlike during the 2010 election campaign, the Alliance parties had to take full responsibility this time around for the shortcomings perceived by voters in the welfare system - including problems in health-care, plummeting school results and widening gaps in society - and continuing high unemployment. While the Alliance has undoubtedly been a political success, they were unable to hold on to power for a third term in office. Despite having largely successfully manoeuvred Sweden through the economic crisis that has left much of the rest of Europe scarred, the repeated campaign message emphasising responsible governing did not convince Swedes. The Alliance failed to formulate ideas for the future and relied on voters rewarding them for work well done.

Following the Moderate Party’s significant losses in both the European and Swedish elections, Fredrik Reinfeldt announced on 14 September his resignation as party leader- a move few had foreseen. He steps down at the extraordinary party conference due to be held in March next year. The disappearance from politics of the Moderate’s successful duo Fredrik Reinfeldt and Anders Borg leaves the Alliance in limbo. But there is nothing to indicate that prominent political figures and prospective party leader candidates (such as and Erik Ullenhag of the Liberal Party) would favour severing ties altogether. The potential replacement of party leaders would change the conditions that determine how the Alliance will look, but also increase the potential for cooperation with the Social Democrats.

While the Alliance offered the Liberal Party, the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats a channel to policy making, the three smaller parties also suffered from domination by the Moderates and the sacrifices that had to be made on the altar of cooperation. Still, both the Centre Party and Christian Democrats managed to make the four-per cent Riksdag threshold with fairly good margins despite dismal opinion polls throughout the year. The Centre Party leader, Annie Lööf, made a strong finish during the party leader debates just before the election and emerges stronger from the election.

It is likely that the Alliance parties will now reflect on the reasons for their election losses and work out new future strategies on their own. The question is what the political scenery will look like in a couple of years’ time. It may not be as easy to rein the smaller parties into cooperation, having bridged the political divide on a number of issues. There is an inherent risk in the smaller parties flying solo for a while, but it offers them an opportunity to reconnect to their ideological roots. As such, analysts predict that the smaller parties will want to adhere to their own political agendas in the Riksdag during the coming four years and polish their own political profiles ahead of the 2018 election.

The aftermath In the aftermath of the election, Sweden faces a very complicated political situation. The Social Democrats have formed a minority government with the Green Party. But while minority governments have been common in the modern era, they have usually based their policies on organised cooperation with other parties in the Riksdag. Only twice in the history of Sweden have the Social Democrats formed a coalition government: both times with the Agrarian Party (later the Centre Party). But never before have the Social Democrats formed a government with such weak electoral support. Sweden also faces a situation with an unusually strong kingmaker in the Riksdag, the Sweden Democrats. For a very long time, only five parties were represented in the Riksdag, now there are eight. That the newest of them, the Sweden Democrats, has managed to become the third largest party thereby increasing its influence makes the situation even more unique. Additionally, this is a party that the other seven parties refuse to enter into any political or budgetary negotiations with it. That will make politics all the more complicated and could force a new election - something that would be extremely unusual in Swedish politics. 5

Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

Because the Alliance received more votes than the Social Democrats and Green Party and is thus able to exert power over the government, it will continue to operate as a collective alternative in important votes in the Riksdag. This is particularly true in cases of budget approval. Never before have two budget options been up against one another, where both can actually be passed by the Riksdag (resulting in a new election).4 In such a case, there is a lingering possibility of a change of government, especially due to the relatively small gap between voter support for the respective blocs. What makes the situation even more complicated is that if new elections should be the outcome, the Alliance is without a leader.

While the invitation to enter into government with the Social Democrats was profoundly and swiftly refused by the Liberal Party as well as the Centre Party, cooperation on certain issues is to be expected. Such collaboration is possible, even plausible, as the smaller parties enjoy greater freedom to negotiate on their own terms. There are several issues on which the Social Democrats stand closer to the Liberal Party and the Centre Party than the Greens. Analysts suggest that the government should deal with the Liberals and the Centre Party on education, energy, social insurance, defence and some aspects of fiscal policy. Indeed, this gives leverage to the Liberal and the Centre Party to promote their own agendas.

The form of so-called negative parliamentarism that Sweden applies makes the situation of a minority government easier, since the opposition must join forces in order to topple the government. But it does mean that the red-green government must be cautious in submitting proposals that the opposition parties will clearly oppose. This will in turn hamper Mr Löfven’s ability to vigorously pursue government policies.

Important dates in the political process this autumn

Oct 24: Earliest date for new government to submit Budget Bill

Nov 15: Deadline for new government to submit Budget Bill

Dec 30: A formal decision on the 2015 budget must be made

WORK IN THE RIKSDAG Much of the work in the Riksdag takes place in the Riksdag committees. In these committees, the members of the Riksdag prepare all decisions. After a committee has presented its proposal for a decision, the members of the Riksdag adopt a position on the proposal.

Normally, the two biggest parties in parliament (the Social Democrats and the Moderates) divide the roles of chairperson and vice chair in the fifteen Riksdag committees. But the parties can hand over some of these posts to coalition partners. When the government submits a bill to the Riksdag, it must be considered by a Riksdag committee before a decision can be taken. Negotiations take place in the Riksdag committees and this is basically where the decisions are made. Each committee is like a miniature Riksdag, because the committee's 17 members reflect the composition of the Riksdag as a whole.

The party groups have an important role to play in the work of the Riksdag. A party group consists of all the members of a party in the Riksdag and the groups usually meet on Tuesday afternoons. A common question at the meetings of the opposition party groups is what position to take on government bills. They

4 The last time a new election to the Riksdag was conducted was in 1958 6

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can either pass the proposal or present their own alternatives. The party group leaders co-ordinate the work in the Riksdag chamber.

The minority government needs to get the support of other parties in order to make sure its policies are passed in the Riksdag. As party group leaders coordinate work in the Riksdag and lead negotiations on the bills in the committees it is essential that the parties have experienced people in place. Given the parliamentary situation, the Riksdag will have more power than usual and work in the committees will become more important. There are many difficult negotiations ahead in the committees, and this is probably why some influential Social Democrat names where left out when Mr Löfven presented his cabinet ministers last week. Mr Löfven needs trusted and experienced people in the Riksdag - such as Tomas Enerot and Veronica Palm - to head up the negotiations.

Mr Enerot has instructed his party’s MPs to ‘try to change the climate in the Riksdag’ and try to avoid confrontation. He told media that the government will not come up with proposals and just hope they will be passed in the Riksdag - they will contact other parties and try to form a Riksdag majority during the preparation stages.

Of the 15 Committees in the Riksdag, the Social Democrats will lead the work in eight Riksdag committees, while their smaller coalition partner, the Greens, will chair the traffic committee, the justice committee and the EU committee.

The Committee on Affairs is the Riksdag hub for impact on the government’s work at EU level. The Government must gain support for its EU policies in the Riksdag ahead of meetings in the Council of Ministers. Former MEP Carl Schlyter (mp) has been elected the Committee's new chairman. He will be the first openly EU-sceptic chairman of the Committee. Kenneth G Forslund (s) will be chairing the Committee on Foreign Affairs - one of the weightiest positions.

On 7 October, the Riksdag elected members to the 15 Riksdag committees, the Committee on European Union Affairs (EU nämnden), the Riksdag Board (Riksdagsstyrelsen) and the Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs (Utrikesnämnden). Each committee will elect a chairman and deputy chairman.

• The Committee on Foreign Affairs Chairman Kenneth G Forslund (s), deputy chairman Karin Enström (m)

Kenneth G Forslund (s), Karin Enström (m), Anna-Lena Sörenson (s), Hillevi Engström (m), Olle Thorell (s), Julia Kronlid (sd), (m), Katarina Köhler (s), (c), Valter Mutt (mp), (m), (s), Björn Söder (sd), Birgitta Ohlsson (fp), Hans Linde (v), Sofia Damm (kd), Jasenko Omanovic (s)

• The Committee on EU Affairs Chairman Carl Schlyter (mp)

Marie Granlund (s), (m), Börje Vestlund (s), (m), Jan-Olof Larsson (s), Johnny Skalin (sd), (m), Lawen Redar (s), Eskil Erlandsson (c), Carl Schlyter (mp), (m), Anna-Lena Sörenson (s), Pavel Gamov (sd), Maria Weimer (fp), Jens Holm (v), Désirée Pethrus (kd), (s)

• The Committee on Defence Chairman Allan Widman (fp), deputy chairman Åsa Lindestam (s)

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Åsa Lindestam (s), (m), Peter Jeppsson (s), Johan Forssell (m), Alexandra Völker (s), Mikael Jansson (sd), (m), Kent Härstedt (s), Daniel Bäckström (c), Per Olsson (mp), Jan R Andersson (m), (s), Roger Richtoff (sd), Allan Widman (fp), Stig Henriksson (v), Mikael Oscarsson (kd), (s)

• The Committee on Finance Chairman Fredrik Olovsson (s), deputy chairman (m)

Fredrik Olovsson (s), Anna Kinberg Batra (m), Monica Green (s), Jonas Jacobsson Gjörtler (m), Jörgen Hellman (s), Oscar Sjöstedt (sd), Jörgen Andersson (m), (s), Emil Källström (c), Janine Alm Ericson (mp), (m), Hans Unander (s), Dennis Dioukarev (sd), Erik Ullenhag (fp), Ulla Andersson (v), Jakob Forssmed (kd), Marie Granlund (s)

• The Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs

In the Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs, the Government discusses and seeks support for its foreign policy with the Riksdag. The Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs consists of the Speaker and 18 members, nine of whom are ordinary members and nine of whom are deputy members. The members are appointed by the Riksdag for each electoral period. The Council is chaired by the King. The following are members of the Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs for the 2014-2018 electoral term.

Tomas Eneroth (s), Fredrik Reinfeldt (m), Marie Granlund (s), Anna Kinberg Batra (m), Pernilla Stålhammar (mp), Julia Kronlid (sd), Annie Lööf (c), Jonas Sjöstedt (v), Jan Björklund (fp)

GOVERNMENT POLICY Prime Minister Stefan Löfven gave his keynote speech to the Riksdag on 3 October, outlining the statement of government policy. He said his government would seek broad support in parliament to secure its political reforms for the challenges the country faces. As such, he set a course for the political middle ground, aiming to draw support from the left and right to ensure his minority government can function effectively. The Prime Minister outlined a vision for a Sweden with more jobs, better schools and lower greenhouse gas emissions, and promised to make the country ‘a strong voice in the world for freedom and solidarity. Sweden would achieve the lowest unemployment rate in the EU by 2020, he said, under its ‘first feminist government’, with all ministries required to work on gender equality.

Ahead of the election, concerns were raised by the private sector that a red-green government could undermine Sweden’s competitiveness by reversing the welfare spending reductions and tax cuts driven through by the Alliance. But so far Mr Löfven has trodden carefully. An increase to unemployment benefits is planned but appears modest and in negotiations with the Greens, the Social Democrats were forced to back away from a previous plan to raise sales tax on restaurants.

The Social Democrats have declared that they do not intend to bring back inheritance, gift, wealth and real estate taxes. They will, however, raise income taxes for those earning above SEK 50.000 a month.

The Prime Minister repeated his intention to tighten the regulations of how private companies run taxpayer-funded institutions like schools and hospitals and said “the pursuit of profit cannot be the

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overriding motivation” for such companies’ operations. The formulation was successful and led to an agreement with the Left Party this week.

Foreign policy in the Statement of Government Policy In an interview prior to the election, Stefan Löfven stated that Sweden's foreign policy had been ’too passive’ and said that his government would be more active in the United Nations and human rights. Presenting the Statement of Government Policy, the Prime Minister stated that Sweden will not seek membership of NATO and that Sweden will not remain passive if another EU country is attacked. But it was the statement that Sweden will recognise Palestine as a state that caused the biggest stir.5 The Social Democrats had signalled in their election manifesto an intention to recognise Palestine. But the speed of their post-election announcement surprised many.

Foreign Minister Margot Wallström, who after Friday's government statement tweeted: "New role for Sweden in the world!" also told Reuters Sweden would now be less enthusiastic about working with NATO, and push a foreign policy that looked at disarmament and women’s rights: "The areas you will see a clear difference ... there will be more focus on the United Nations ... including disarmament issues," said the Foreign Minister and added: "This will also be a feminist foreign policy, meaning that in everything we do the perspective of women, peace and security will be integrated."

In response to the speech, Ulf Bjereld, professor of political science at Göteborg University, said that Sweden will pursue a more independent foreign policy under the new administration: "It will be one that does not toe the line as much with the European Union or Washington. Sweden will be more visible.”

THE CABINET It was the explicit intention of Prime Minister Löfven to have the cabinet reflect the population of Sweden, and the cabinet is indeed diverse in terms of political affiliation, age, gender, origin, and experience. It is made up of 18 ministers from the Social Democrats and 6 from the Green Party, with an equal number of men and women. Four of the ministers are of foreign origin. It is a relatively young cabinet and only four of the appointed ministers have ministerial experience. Mr Löfven has however manned the key positions with political heavyweights, Margot Wallström as Foreign Minister being the most striking example. The Social Democrats hold the posts of finance, foreign affairs, defence, justice, energy, and enterprise, among others. The party also has more junior posts in the Ministry of Education. The Green Party handles education, environment, foreign aid and financial markets. In a surprise move, the Ministers for EU, Trade and Integration were abolished altogether. EU-issues will be handled by the Minister for Foreign Affairs, a decision which has already received criticism. Similarly, trade issues will be the remit of the Minister for Enterprise. While immigration issues have been transferred to the Ministry of Justice, integration is considered to be a whole-of-government issue. Thus, it is the concern and responsibility of all ministers. The fact that the important Finance Ministry will be split between Social Democrats and Greens should help the two parties build foundations for cooperation.

Below is short background information of the ministers in Mr Löfven’s cabinet.6

5 Sweden will be the first major state of the European Union to recognise Palestine, although some countries, like Hungary, Poland and Slovakia also recognize Palestine, but they did this before joining the EU. 6 Note: Some of the ministerial names and titles have changed due to the change of government. Awaiting the official translations, titles and names have been approximated using the limited official documentation available as well as English translations of the old terminology. 9

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Prime Minister’s Office • Prime Minister, Stefan Löfven (s)

In a country where politicians are moulded early on through the youth leagues and into political appointments, Mr Löfven stands out: an orphan who became a steel worker and built a career as the leader of IF Metall7. Sweden’s tradition of collaboration between and trade unions has shaped Mr Löfven and his knowledge of Swedish industry has earned him respect both on factory floors and by business leaders. As leader of IF Metall, Löfven has worked hands-on with industrial policy, saving jobs, creating jobs and taking the controversial decisions that are necessary in a country as dependent on exports as Sweden. He has been working closely with Swedish company owners, but he has also lobbied internationally (helping Saab sell Gripen fighter jets) and assisted in negotiations over Ford's and GM’s takeovers of Volvo and Saab. His extensive business contacts includes the Wallenberg family (Saab’s largest shareholder) and when Jacob Wallenberg invited Mr Löfven to last year's meeting of the Bilderberg Group, the closed meeting of international politicians and businessmen, it created big headlines in Swedish media. However, before becoming party leader he had no previous political experience, let alone as a minister. He had hardly spent any time at the Social Democratic Riksdag headquarters, and he had never held a seat in the Riksdag.

• Minister for Strategy, Future Planning and Nordic Cooperation, Kristina Persson (s)

Ms Persson has a solid professional background as Deputy Governor of the Riksbank, County Governor of Jämtland, and member of the Riksdag as well as the European Parliament. Since 2005, she has presided as chair of the thinktank Global Utmaning (Global Challenge). In her capacity as minister, Ms Persson is charged with advising the Prime Minister on Nordic and international issues. She is the government’s strategist, responsible for the long-term perspective of the government’s aggregate policy. Thus, she will be a key player in the brokering of deals, both with the opposition and in the government itself. Such a facilitator may serve the minority government well.

Ministry for Foreign Affairs • Minister of Foreign Affairs, Margot Wallström (s)

Margot Wallström, former EU commissioner and UN special representative on sexual violence in conflict, takes over from as Foreign Minister. Her solid experience on both the national and the EU stage made her the obvious choice for Foreign Minister. She has deep ministerial experience, having held the positions of Deputy Minister for Public Affairs (1988-1991), Minister for Culture (1994-1996) and Minister for Health and Social Affairs (1996-1998). Furthermore, Ms Wallström served five years as Vice-President to José Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission, during her time as EU commissioner. Ms Wallström has expressed an intention to advocate a more prominent gender perspective. In addition, she will seek popular backing for her policies and closer cooperation with organisations engaged in foreign policy issues and international development cooperation8.

7 The main union of industrial and metal workers and one of Sweden’s most powerful unions.

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• Minister of International Development Cooperation, Isabella Lövin (mp)

A journalist and prize-winning author, Ms Lövin has held a seat in the European Parliament since 2009. She has profiled herself in fishing issues, being the vice-chair of the Committee of Fisheries (PECH).

Ministry of Defence • Minister for Defence, (s)

Mr Hultqvist is the spokesperson on defence issues for the Social Democrats and aligns himself with the left wing of the party. He has a background in journalism and has served as chair in the Parliamentary Committee on Defence and as Municipal Commissioner in Borlänge. Mr Hultqvist is likely to encounter resistance from the Greens, given that the Social Democrats and the Green Party disagree on defence policy.

Ministry of Finance • Minister for Finance, Magdalena Andersson (s)

Magdalena Andersson, the Social Democrats’ spokesperson on economic policy, has been appointed Finance Minister, taking over from Anders Borg. While she has no previous ministerial experience, she served as State Secretary in the Ministry of Finance 2004-2006. Her academic achievements include studies at Harvard University and a position as a doctoral candidate in economics at Stockholm School of Economics. Ms Andersson was one of the front figures in the party during the campaign, being a relentless opponent and fierce critic of Mr Borg.

• Minister for Financial Markets, (mp)

Mr Bolund is the Green Party’s man in the Ministry of Finance. Like his colleague, Ms Andersson, he has most recently served as spokesperson on economic policy. A member of the Riksdag since 2011, Mr Bolund also served on the Parliamentary Committee on Finance.

• Minister for Public Affairs, (s)

Mr Shekarabi is one of the youngest members of Mr Löfven’s government. Having served as chair of the youth league and, most recently, as member of the Riksdag, he is considered a rising star within the party. He has also served in the party’s executive committee and participated in the party’s state secretary school. The jurisdiction of this new ministerial post is yet to be clarified.

Ministry of Justice • Minister for Justice, (s)

Being the party’s spokesperson on legal policy, Mr Johansson was the given choice for the post. He has held a seat in the Riksdag since 1998 and served as Minister for Public Health under the last Social Democratic government. Mr Johansson has a distinct left profile within the party and enjoys strong support from the Social Democrats in Skåne. Given the abolition of the Ministry of Integration, Mr Johansson will assume responsibility for immigration issues.

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• Minister for Home Affairs, (s)

Mr Ygeman served as deputy chairman of the youth league during the 1990’s and has been a member of the Riksdag since 1995. The Minister for Home Affairs relieves the Minister of Justice from responsibility for the police. Structural reforms in police administration are to be expected.

Ministry of Enterprise and Infrastructure • Minister for Enterprise and Innovations, (s)

While Mr Damberg has no ministerial experience, he is considered a seasoned politician. Most recently, he served as group leader for the Social Democrats in the Riksdag, having held a seat in the Riksdag since 2002. He has also been the party’s spokesperson on education policy and a member of the Parliamentary . Furthermore, he worked as a political advisor in the Prime Minister’s office and in the Ministry of Defence under the last Social Democratic administration. Like a number of his colleagues in the new administration, he has a background as chairman of the youth league. Trade policy is now the remit of the Ministry of Enterprise and Infrastructure.

• Minister for Housing and Urban Development, (mp)

Closely aligned with party spokesperson , Mr Kaplan is both popular and powerful within the party. He was the group leader for the Greens in the Riksdag, having held a seat since 2006. Mr Kaplan is also a former chairman of the organization Sveriges Unga Muslimer (Swedish Young Muslims) and of the Stockholm section of IOGT-NTO9. Mr Kaplan is likely to prioritize environmentally friendly renovation and climate proofing of apartment blocks produced during the 1960’s and 70’s, as part of the great Housing Project (Miljonprogrammet).

• Minister for Infrastructure, Anna Johansson (s)

A local politician, Ms Johansson has been the Municipal Commissioner in Gothenburg since 2009 and a member of the Gothenburg city council since 1999.

• Minister for Rural Affairs, Sven-Erik Bucht (s)

Mr Bucht enjoys strong local support and has solid background as a respected municipal politician. He served as Municipal Commissioner in Haparanda prior to winning a seat in the Riksdag in 2010. He is credited with the rapid development of his municipality, having facilitated the establishment of an Ikea in Haparanda.

Ministry of the Environment • Minister for Climate and the Environment, Deputy Prime Minister, Åsa Romson (mp)

Having granted Mr Fridolin the important post of Minister for Education, his fellow spokesperson Ms Romson was chosen for the post of Deputy Prime Minister. Ms Romson has a background as a lawyer and, as a PhD Student taught international and environmental law. She worked in the Stockholm City Council for many years prior to being elected spokesperson for the Greens in 2011.

9 A Swedish temperence movement 12

Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

• Minister for Energy, (s)

When he was appointed Minister for Education in 2004, Mr Baylan was the first minister of non- Nordic origin in Swedish history. Following the change of government in 2006, he served as deputy chair of the Parliamentary Committee on Education and party secretary. Mr Baylan is considered to be a right-wing Social Democrat. While the portfolio, Minister for Climate and the Environment, went to the Greens, it is worth noting that the Social Democrats reserved energy issues for themselves. Nuclear energy policy is a divisive subject within the government. Appointing a person with ministerial experience may be a measure of the political wisdom of Mr Löfven.

Ministry of Employment • Minister for Employment, (s)

Ms Johansson, the Social Democrats’ spokesperson on labour market issues, is one of the political heavy weights in the new administration. She has previously served as Deputy Minister for both Health and Social Affairs and Education. While she held a seat for the Left/Communist Party in the late 1980’s, she later served many years in the Riksdag on behalf of the Social Democrats.

Ministry of Education and Research • Minister for Education, Gustav Fridolin (mp)

A former teacher. Gustav Fridolin was the youngest Member of the Riksdag in Swedish history when he was first elected in 2002. He was elected spokesperson for the Green Party in 2011. He has also worked as a journalist and written three books. Primary education will be his domain.

• Minister for Upper Secondary Education, Aida Hadzialic (s)

At the age of 27, Ms Hadzialic is the youngest of the appointed ministers. Born in Bosnia- Herzegovina, she considers her journey a credit to social democracy10. Ms Hadizialic became a member of the Municipal Council in Halmstad at the age of 23, with a law degree in hand, and would later hold the position of Municipal Commissioner. She quickly distinguished herself through her passion for enterprise and innovation. A rapidly rising star, she is allegedly one of Mr Löfven’s personal favourites.

• Minister for Higher Education and Research, Helene Hellmark Knutsson (s)

In her previous capacity as County Council Commissioner in Stockholm, Ms Hellmark Knutsson worked with medical research. She enjoys strong support among Social Democrats in Stockholm.

Ministry of Health and Social Affairs • Minister for Social Security, Annika Strandhäll (s)

Ms Strandhäll has a background in industrial and organisational psychology. She most recently served as chair of the trade union, Vision.

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Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

• Minister for Health Care and Sports, Gabriel Wikström (s)

Mr Wikström left his position as chair of the youth league in order to become minister. During his time in the youth league, he has profiled himself in housing, education and unemployment issues. He is a strong advocate of the 90-day guarantee11, which he pushed the party to adopt. In capacity of Minister for Health Care, he is likely to be involved in issues such as equality in the health care system and profitability in the public sector, a hot topic during the election campaign. Such complex issues may prove challenging for a relatively inexperienced politician.

• Minister for Youth, Elderly and Gender Equality, Åsa Regnér (s)

Ms Regnér has a background as State Secretary for Gender Equality and Secretary General of the Swedish Association for Sexuality Education (RFSU). Most recently, she was the Country Director for UN Women in Bolivia.

Ministry of Culture • Minister for Culture of Democracy, Alice Bah Khunke (mp)

The biggest surprise in the new administration. Mr Löfven has stated that her popularity and community engagement makes her a valuable member of the government12. She joined the Green Party on Tuesday 30 September, after being offered the position as Minister for Culture. Culture is central in upholding democratic values and processes. Ms Bah Khunke has a diverse background, including experience in television. Since then, she has served as chair for the National Board of Youth Affairs, manager of environmental issues and CRS for ÅF, and Secretary-General of the organisation Fairtrade.

At the ministries The government has started to appoint the new State Secretaries. As expected, Emma Lennarssson, who accounts for much of the party's policy development, will be State Secretary to the Prime Minister. Like the Alliance government, the red-green government will have a coordination office (samordningskansli) inside the Prime Minister’s office, which will coordinate policy between the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party. Per Ängquist (mp) and Mats Andersson (s) will manage the red-green coordination office. The Social Democrat’s Head of Administration, Hans Dahlgren, will have the demanding task of handling EU- and foreign affairs issues in the Prime Minister’s Office.

The Ministry for Foreign Affairs, led by Margot Wallström, has appointed Annika Söder as State Secretary for Foreign Affairs (kabinettsekreterare). She was worked at the MFA in various positions since 1982. The ministry has also appointed Ulrika Modéer as State Secretary for international aid. The Ministry for Foreign Affairs will hence have an entirely female political leadership: two women ministers and two female state secretaries.

Oscar Stenström (s) will be State Secretary at the expanded Ministry for Industry, led by Mikael Damberg (S). A somewhat unexpected choice as Mr Stenström has been the Social Democrats’ International Secretary for many years. The Ministry for the Environment, led by Climate- and Environment Minister Åsa Romson (mp) has appointed Göran Enander State Secretary.

11 Which grants unemployed youth employment, or similar, within the first 90 days of unemployment.

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Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

Prime Minister’s Office • Emma Lennartsson (s) - State Secretary to the Prime Minister Former chief economist at the Municipal Workers’ Union (Kommunal) and group secretary for the Social Democratic Riksdag group. Was previously a speechwriter for former Minister for Finance, , planning manager for Minister for Finance Pär Nuder, and budgeting director under Thomas Östros.

• Hans Dahlgren (s) - State Secretary for foreign affairs - and EU issues State Secretary under and Göran Persson, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs under Anna Lindh, Leila Freivalds and Jan Eliasson. In addition, UN Ambassador and member of the UN Security Council.

• Mats Andersson (s) and Per Ängquist (mp) - State Secretaries in the coordination office (samordningskansliet) at the Prime Minister’s Office

Foreign Ministry • Annika Söder - State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Annika Söder comes from the Dag Hammarsköld foundation where she has been the Executive Director since September 2012. She has had a long career at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs including State Secretary for development cooperation and Head of the Press Office. She has been Under- Secretary-General at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, FAO.

• Ulrika Modéer - State Secretary to Minister for Foreign Aid and Development Isabella Lövin (mp) Ulrika Modéer has been the head of the environmental- foreign affairs team the Green Party's Riksdag office. She has previously worked with democracy and human rights for a number of aid actors, including as head of Diakonia. She has also worked with UNDP programs and with information campaigns for SIDA. She has also held positions of trust in organizations such as the Swedish Development Forum (FUF) and Concord.

Ministry for Finance • Max Elger - State Secretary to Minister for Finance, Magdalena Andersson (s) Has a PhD in Political Economy from the Stockholm School of Economics. Head of Finance at the Social Democratic Party.

• Karolina Ekholm - State Secretary to Minister for Finance, Magdalena Andersson (s) She comes from the Riksbank where she has been Deputy Governor and member of the Executive Board since 2009.

• Charlotte Svensson - State Secretary to Minister for Finance, Magdalena Andersson (s) Comes from the city of Stockholm where she held the position as head of the labour market administration

• - State Secretary to the Minister for Financial Markets, Per Bolund (mp Has most recently held the post of Second Deputy .

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Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

Ministry for Industry • Oscar Stenström - State Secretary to the Minister for Business and Innovation, Mikael Damberg (s) Has been the party’s Foreign Policy Adviser at the Riksdag. Previously he was the International Secretary for the Social Democrats for many years.

Ministry for Justice • Lars Westbratt - State Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Migration, Morgan Johansson (s) Has most recently been political secretary in the .

Ministry for Education • Helene Öberg - State Secretary to Minister for Education, Gustav Fridolin (mp) She has long experience of education issues. Most recently, she was the opposition county council commissioner in Stockholm.

Ministry for Social Affairs • Therese Svanström Andersson - State Secretary to Minister for Social Insurance Annika Strandhäll (s) She comes from a role as Head of Administration at the union, Vision.

Ministry for the Environment • Göran Enander - State Secretary to Minister for Climate- and the Environment, Åsa Romson (mp) Has most previously been Administrative Director at the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet).

Ministry for Rural Affairs • Elisabeth Backteman - State Secretary to Minister for Rural Affairs Sven-Erik Bucht (s) She has previously been Director of Planning and Control at the Swedish Migration Board.

LOCAL ELECTIONS Feminist Initiative did not manage to get into the Riksdag, but the local ’s three largest cities - Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö - saw the party gain ground. Fi gained three seats in both Stockholm and Gothenburg, and two in Malmö. The Moderate Party lost its firm grip of Stockholm, while the Social Democrats will remain in power in Malmö. In Göteborg, however, it is still unclear who will govern the city. The Sweden Democrats take a kingmaker role in a large number of municipalities and county councils, including a seat in the Stockholm City Hall.

Stockholm The Social Democrats along with the Green Party, the Left Party and Feminist Initiative received a majority in the Stockholm City Municipal Council. Whether they will rule together is as yet unclear. The Moderate Party still have the most seats in the Council, but fell from 38 till 28 mandates. The second largest party is the Social Democrats with 24 seats.

During the 2010-2014 electoral term, the Stockholm City Council consisted of seven parties. After the entrance of Feminist Initiative and the Sweden Democrats the number of parties has increased to nine. The 2010 election was the first time since 1954 that a sitting majority (the Alliance) managed to retain the power in Stockholm.

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Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

The Commissioner of Finance (Finansborgarråd) is the most important position in Stockholm and is also the Mayor. Since 1970, the Moderate Party and the Social Democrats have occupied that post. Together the Mayor and the Vice Mayors Local elections results form the Council of Mayors, and they prepare • • • matters for the City Executive Board. The Mayor Stockholm (%) chairs both the Council of Mayors and the City Moderate Party 27,16 Executive Board. Social Democratic Party 21,96 Green Party 14,32 The outgoing Mayor, Sten Nordin (m), will hand Left Party 8,94 over to his successor Karin Wanngård (s). Ms Liberal Party 8,28 Sweden Democrats 5,16 Wanngård has served in the Stockholm City Centre Party 4,69 Council since 1994. One of the challenges facing Feminist Initiative 4,64 the incoming Mayor is the joint decision of the Christian Democrats 3,28 Social Democrats and Greens at national level to postpone the building start of Stockholm bypass (Förbifart Stockholm) until the Spring. Göteborg (%) Moderate Party 22,33 The City Council is responsible for schools, Social Democratic Party 22,39 Green Party 10,66 childcare, city planning and more. Responsibility Left Party 9,44 for Health care, hospitals and public transport lies Liberal Party 8,12 with the County Council. Sweden Democrats 7,02 Centre Party 2,56 In the Council, the Moderate Feminist Initiative 3,96 Christian Democrats 3,95 Party saw a significant loss of voters. The other parties in the Alliance also lost voters and the coalition is no longer holds a majority in the Malmö (%) Stockholm County Council. Still, the Alliance will continue to govern in minority, because the four Moderate Party 21,97 Social Democratic Party 32,88 parties received more votes than the Red-Green Green Party 8,62 coalition. During the last electoral term there were Left Party 8,51 nine County Commissioners (landstingsråd) in the Liberal Party 5,44 County Council, of which the Moderate party had Sweden Democrats 13,12 Centre Party 1,74 five. It is anticipated that the Moderate Party will Feminist Initiative 3,23 lose one county commissioner when the new Christian Democrats 1,50 County Council is elected on 21 October. It is expected that Health Service Commissioner, Source: www.val.se , will stay on, possibly in the role of Finance Commissioner.

Göteborg It's been over three weeks since the election but it is still unclear how the city will be governed. The two major parties, Social Democrats and the Moderates performed poorly; the Social Democrats lost five seats in the City Council. The head of the Moderate Party in Göteborg, Jonas Ransgård, said in an interview on 3 October that he still hopes to get the chance to lead the City Council and said that he would welcome the blocs agreement underlining that the coalition between the Red-Green parties is weak. Göteborg City has a long tradition of Social Democratic government. Anneli Hulthén is the Mayor of Göteborg since 2008 when she was elected as the new Chairman of the City after Göran Johansson. 17

Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

In the Västra Götaland region, the Green Party has decided to join forces with the centre-right Alliance parties in local government after negotiations with the Social Democrats broke down. The new blue-green coalition will have 76 of the 149 seats in the region. The region is responsible for health-care, public transport and promoting economic growth for 1.6 million people in western Sweden. The coalition will consist of the Green Party, Moderates, Liberals, Christian Democrats and Centre Party.

Malmö The Social Democrats, the Left Party and the Green Party have strengthened their cooperation and will continue to govern in Malmö in the 2014 - 2018 electoral term. Earlier in October, the coalition presented their political platform for the coming four-year term. In 2013 Ms Stjernfeldt Jammeh became Mayor of Malmö and was the first woman elected to the city's most powerful political post. She succeeded Ilmar Reepalu who had governed the city of Malmö since 1994.

THE PATH FORWARD Fredrik Reinfeldt’s Alliance government has transformed the cultural and political dynamic in Swedish society, the effects of which will be felt for years to come. The socialist mantra that pervaded Swedish society was swept away, and Swedish politics have evolved into a more fluid phase. In an article in Foreign Affairs magazine, Professor Bo Rothstein said the election saw the end of Swedish exceptionalism: ”The country no longer has an exceptionally strong social democracy. Its level of inequality is no longer exceptionally low, and its level of public spending will no longer be exceptionally high. From now on, it will probably be closer to average.”

The post-election landscape is politically fragmented. The established parties will attempt to recapture voters from the Sweden Democrats and the Feminist Initiative. This must eventually lead to a fuller debate about refugees, immigration and integration, subjects which are currently taboo for the established parties.

This final edition of Elections ’14 can be thought of as a snapshot, taken today, on the morning of 8 October, 2014. We believe that it accurately records this moment in time. But, the situation is unstable, and developments in the coming months, or potentially even within weeks, could produce a vastly different outcome than what looks likely today. Mundus International will continue to monitor events as they unfold, through Mundus News, and with analysis in our Monthly Policy Review. We hope that you have found Elections ’14 of assistance in understanding the political dynamic and look forward to staying in touch via our other publications.

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Part 6: post-elections - the road ahead

APPENDIX 1 THE RESULTS OF THE 2014 ELECTION

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REFERENCES Aktuellt i Politiken, http://www.aip.nu

European Election Database (EED), http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/

European Voice, http://www.europeanvoice.com

Fokus, http://www.fokus.se

Government Offices of Sweden, http://www.regeringen.se

Political blogs:

o Henrik Oscarsson http://www.henrikoscarsson.com o Ulf Bjereld http://ulfbjereld.blogspot.se o Politometern http://www.politometern.se o Makt och Politik http://maktochpolitik.wordpress.com o Andreas Heinö http://andreasjohanssonheino.blogspot.se o Magnus Hagevi http://hagevi.wordpress.com o Politologerna http://politologerna.wordpress.com o Jesper Strömbäck http://jesperstromback.wordpress.com

Political parties

Swedish political parties

o The Social Democratic Party http://www.socialdemokraterna.se o The Moderate Party http://www.moderat.se o The Green Party http://www.mp.se o The Liberal Party http://www.folkpartiet.se o The Centre Party http://www.centerpartiet.se o The Sweden Democrats http://sverigedemokraterna.se o The Left Party http://www.vansterpartiet.se o The Christian Democrats http://www.kristdemokraterna.se o The Pirate Party http://www.piratpartiet.se o Feminist Initiative http://gamla.feministisktinitiativ.se

Rothstein Bo, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141998/bo-rothstein/the-end-of-swedish- exceptionalism

Stockholm Stad, http://www.stockholm.se/

Svenska Dagbladet, http://www.svd.se/

Sveriges Kommuner och Landsting, http://www.skl.se

Sveriges Riksdag, www.riksdagen.se

Sveriges Radio, Val 2014, http://sverigesradio.se

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Sveriges Television, Val 2014, http://www.svt.se/nyheter/val2014/

Swedish Election Authority, Valmyndigheten, www.val.se

Valforskningsprogrammet, , http://www.valforskning.pol.gu.se

VALU exit poll, http://pejl.svt.se/val2014/valu-riksdag/valjarstrommar

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