Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 September 2017
Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
September 2017
windeurope.org This publication, the first in a series of annual reports, analyses how EU markets will develop in the next four years, starting with an in depth analysis of the first half of 2017. The outlook is based on WindEurope’s internal analysis and consultation with its members (surveys with national associations and a dedicated workshop in June 2017).
Disclaimer This publication contains information collected on a regular basis throughout the year and then verified with relevant members of the industry ahead of publication. Neither WindEurope, nor its members, nor their related entities are, by means of this publication, rendering professional advice or services. Neither WindEurope nor its members shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication.
TEXT AND ANALYSIS: WindEurope Business Intelligence Aloys Nghiem Daniel Fraile Ariola Mbistrova Tom Remy
EDITOR: Iván Pineda
DESIGN: JQ&ROS Visual Communications
PHOTO COVER: Keith Arkins
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS WindEurope acknowledge the contributions from the following companies and industry associations for their input to our online surveys and workshop organised on June 28th, 2017 in Brussels: AEE (ES), DWIA (DK), PSEW (PL), FEE (FR), BWE (DE), NWEA (NL), Elettricità Futura (IT), Eneco, Statoil, Enercon, Vestas, ERG, EDPR, EON, Enel, Vattenfall, EnBW, GE, RES, Norton Rose Fulbright, Axpo.
WindEurope also acknowledges the kind cooperation of the following associations and institutions: Austrian Wind Energy Association - IG Windkraft, Belgian Offshore Platform, EDORA asbl, ODE-Vlaanderen vzw, Bulgarian Wind Energy Association, Czech Wind Energy Association - CzWEA (CSVE), Estonian Wind Power Association - EWPA, Finnish Wind Power Association (Suomen Tuulivoimayhdistys Ry), VDMA Power Systems, Hellenic Wind Energy Association - ELETAEN, Hungarian Wind Energy Industry Association, Irish Wind Energy Association - IWEA, Associazione Nazionale Energia del Vento - ANEV, Latvian Wind Energy Association, Lithuanian Wind Power Association - LWPA, Associação Portuguesa de Energias Renovaveis - APREN, Romanian Wind Energy Association - RWEA, Svensk Vindenergi (Swedish Wind Energy Association), Renewable UK. CONTENTS
3. 2. 1.
EXECUTIVESUMMARY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS OUTLOOK MID-TERM MARKET ENERGY WIND TODAY MARKET ENERGY WIND EUROPEAN THE 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 Investment outlook 2.3 Market outlook 2.2 Policy landscape 2.1 Introduction 1.2. 1.1 2.3.3 2.3.2 2.3.1 Wind energy generation Renewable energy sources outlook Global wind energy market outlook First half of 2017 Market evolution High Scenario Low Scenario Central Scenario ...... 38 36 35 34 31 30 27 18 18 10 9 9 5 32 25 18 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2020 will mark an important milestone for the European Union as Member States will be tested on their climate change and energy commitments. Wind energy will make a significant contribution to achieving these commitments in the power sector, allowing many Member States to reach their targets in a cost-effective way and to continue their energy system transformation.
Deployment in 2017-2020
With an average of 12.6 GW per year, volumes of new de- surpassing hydro power and becoming the largest source ployment of wind energy capacity look set to remain fairly of renewable electricity. We expect Denmark to meet strong through to 2020, according to WindEurope’s Cen- over half of its demand with wind energy and Germany tral Scenario. We expect 2017 to mark a new record high almost 30%. Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the UK will follow in annual installations. We expect 50 GW to be installed with respectively 29, 27, 24 and 21%. in the 4 years of 2017-2020. We expect this would bring the EU to an accumulative installed capacity of 204 GW. New installations will remain relatively strong until the We expect this 50 GW additional capacity to represent end of 2020, but policy uncertainty and lack of ambition over half of all new renewable capacity in the EU over the for the post-2020 climate and energy framework could 4-year period, well above solar PV, bioenergy and hydro have a significant negative impact on the sector. Only a power. handful of Member States have provided visibility and regulatory certainty. With only 5 countries among the EU- With over 200 GW of installed capacity, wind energy 28 announcing auctions plans, there is a lack of certainty could meet 16.5% of Europe’s electricity needs by 2020, on revenue stability for investors.
5 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Executive summary
FIGURE A Wind energy market outlook to 2020 in the EU
18
16 14
12
10
8 GW 6
4
2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Onshore Offshore Low High Central
Source: WindEurope
Market concentration will remain high, with Germany, the The offshore market will grow at a higher pace than the UK, France, Spain and the Netherlands installing most of onshore market. With average new installations of 3.1 the capacity. Germany alone will represent a third of all GW/year, offshore wind will represent about one quarter the installed capacity, with a total of 16.5 GW. The second of the total new installations (compared to a 15% share in largest market will be the UK, with two thirds of its new the last 4-year period 2013-2016). The offshore market installations offshore. France will be third in the list with will concentrate mainly in the UK with 5.2 GW, represent- potential installations of up to 6.5 GW. ing 42% new grid-connected capacity. Another 4 countries will see offshore installations: Germany (3.5 GW), Belgium The onshore market will remain stable with a slight de- (1.5 GW), the Netherlands (1.4 GW) and Denmark (1.0 crease towards the end of the 4-year period, mainly due GW). In 2019, annual installations in offshore will reach to lower planned activity in Germany. However, we expect to over 4 GW. Spain to experience radical growth after several years of inactivity; following the recent tenders, the industry is gearing up to install 4.1 GW of capacity.
6 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Executive summary
In the first half of 2017
In total, we estimate that developers have installed across During this period, 11 EU Member States have announced the EU-28 about 6.1 GW of capacity in the first half of new wind energy investments totalling €8.1bn for 4.1 GW 2017: 4.8 GW onshore and 1.3 GW offshore. Activity has of new assets. Germany was the biggest investor, with been concentrated in Germany, UK and France with a over €4.5bn and 1.8 GW of new capacity financed. Invest- share of 82%. 15 countries out of the EU-28 saw no in- ment activity in the country accounted for 53% of the Eu- stallations for this period while only 8 countries surpassed ropean market. With no offshore wind projects reaching the 100 MW mark. The activity in the offshore market is Final Investment Decision in the UK during this period, 2.6 times higher than for the first half of 2016, with 6 wind investments dropped to a record low below €1bn. farms bringing additional capacity in 4 countries (Germa- ny, the UK, Belgium and Finland).
FIGURE B Investments in new wind energy assets per country during first half 2017, in the EU1
4,500 4,500
4,000 4,000
3,500 3,500
3,000 3,000
2,500 2,500
2,000 2,000 MW mEUR 1,500 1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
0 0 y n UK a Italy rm Spain e France Greece Ireland Finland Austria G Sweden Belgium Total new investments (mEUR) Total new capacity financed (MW) Source: WindEurope
1. Projects reaching First Investment Decision.
7 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Executive summary
ADDITIONAL New added 50-60% WIND ENERGY capacity Share 40-50% COULD COVER (2017-2020) of wind 50 GW in power 30-40% GW demand IN THE EU IN THE NEXT 20-30% 16.5% FOUR YEARS, TOTALING Cumulative installed 10-20% OF EU ELECTRICITY capacity DEMAND IN 2020 204 GW in 2020 (2016) 0-10%
0.8
1.5 1.6 6.5
0.3 0.3 0 16.5 0.06 1.5 0.1 5.2 0.4 1.1 7.7 50 2.8 14 0.8 3.1 4.3 5.7
2.3
2.3 0.04 0.1 0.05 0.2 0 0.03 6 0.8 0 0 2.6 0.3 12 3 0 0.3 0.03 0.4 1.6 0 3.7 9.2 0.6 0.4 23 5.3
0.8
2.3
0.05 0 0 0.1 8 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 WindEurope's Central Scenario 1. THE EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY MARKET TODAY
1.1 MARKET EVOLUTION
At the end of June 2017, the European Union had a total 5 GW installed. Seven additional EU countries have over 1 of 159.5 GW of wind power capacity installed (145.5 GW GW of installed capacity: Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, onshore and 14.0 GW offshore). Germany remains the EU Ireland, the Netherlands and Romania.Annual wind power Member State with the largest installed capacity, followed installations in the EU have increased more or less stead- by Spain, the UK, France and Italy. Four other EU countries ily over the past 11 years from 6.6 GW in 2005 to 12.5 (Sweden, Denmark, Poland and Portugal) have more than GW in 2016 at an average annual rate of 11 GW per year.
FIGURE 1 Annual wind energy installations 2005-2017
14 180 3 1.6 12 1.2 1.6 1.5 160 0.6 140 10 0.9 0.8 0.3 120 0.3 8 0.1 100 0.1 1.3 6 80 GW 60 4 40 Cumulative (GW) 2 6.5 7.1 8.6 8.1 9.7 9 8.9 10.9 10 10.5 9.8 10.9 4.8 20 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 Onshore Offshore Cumulative Source: WindEurope
9 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 The European wind energy market today
1.2 FIRST HALF OF 2017
During the first half of 2017, project developers installed energy installations in this period, while eight countries 6.1 GW of wind energy in the EU; 4.8 GW onshore and surpassed the 100 MW mark. 1.3 GW offshore. 15 out of 28 countries had no wind
FIGURE 2 Wind energy installations in the first half of 2017
3.5
3 0.6
2.5
2 2.3 0.5
GW 1.5
1
1.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.01 0
Onshore Offshore Source: WindEurope
Germany installed almost half of the EU’s new onshore in Poland (6 MW), Sweden (23 MW), Finland (50 MW), wind energy capacity with 2.3 GW in this period. The UK Greece (46 MW), and Portugal (0 MW). followed with close to 1.2 GW, representing almost one quarter of the total installations. This high volume of in- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Hungary, stallations in the UK was due to the end of the Renew- Latvia and Romania have yet to install a single MW since able Obligation Certificate’s grace period in March 2017. 2016. Developers rushed to complete projects before this dead- line. With 492 MW of new installed capacity in H1 2017, France is on track for another good year of installations. These three countries accounted for more than 80% of the EU’s onshore installations, highlighting a very high 82% market concentration. OF THE NEW WIND CAPACITY 12 more countries had new onshore installations in the first half of the year. Italy and Ireland installed 187 MW IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2017 and 159 MW respectively. Both countries kept a constant WAS INSTALLED IN installation rate, as in 2016. By contrast, the first half of 2017 represents a significant slowdown in installations 3 COUNTRIES
10 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 3 Onshore wind installations in the first half of 2017. Total 4,775 MW
Netherlands Others* 88 MW 206 MW 2% 2% Austria 107 MW 2% Ireland 159 MW 4% Italy 187 MW 4% France Germany Belgium 492 MW 2,281 MW 10% 48% 105 MW 2% UK 1,151 MW 24%
*Others: include Denmark (60 MW), Finland (50 MW), Greece (46 MW), Sweden (23 MW), Croatia (21 MW) and Poland (6 MW)
Source: WindEurope
Germany connected 48% of the net capacity, largely with the commissioning of the Veja Mate wind farm. The Unit- ed Kingdom connected 38% of the EU’s capacity, mainly thanks to the completion of the Burbo Bank extension 245 wind farm. Belgium represented 12% of the total share NEW GRID -CONNECTED and Finland 2% with 1 project in each country. OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES 84% of the installations were in the North Sea, 15% in the Irish Sea and 1% in the Baltic Sea. Whilst the latter had IN 6 WIND FARMS very little capacity, construction works started at the 350 MW Wikinger offshore wind farm.
Offshore wind in Europe saw a net 1,344 MW of addition- al installed grid-connected capacity from 1 January to 30 June 2017. This was 2.6 times the amount installed over the same period last year. This new capacity came from six offshore wind farms across four countries and totalling 245 grid-connected turbines. 189 new foundations were installed and 294 turbines were erected.
11 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 4 Offshore wind country split and grid connected farms in H1 of 2017
Nobelwind (Belwind II) Pori Tahkoluoto 1 Nordsee One Sandbank 165 MW 21 MW 72 MW 52 MW
Finland 21 MW 2% Race Bank Dan Tysk 78 MW Belgium 14 MW 165 MW 12% Veja Mate Germany 402 MW 641 MW 48% Dudgeon East UK 240 MW 518 MW 38%
Burbo Bank Extension 200 MW
Source: WindEurope
12 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 5 Summary of work in offshore wind farms between 1st January and 30th June 2017 160 8
140 7
120 6
100 5
80 4
60 3
40 2
20 1 Number of wind farms Number of foundations / turbines 0 0 Finland Belgium United Germany Kingdom
Number of foundations installed Number of turbines erected Number of turbines grid connected Number of wind farms
Source: WindEurope
Out of the 245 turbines grid-connected in the first half Offshore wind farms are generally owned by multiple par- of 2017, 58% were provided by Siemens, 31% by Senvi- ties, due to the large investments needed and the need to on and 11% by MHI Vestas. Wind turbine capacity rating diversify risk. For the first half of the year, 18 owners have ranged between 4.2 MW and 8 MW, with an average of been involved in the six wind farms that connected wind 5.8 MW. This is a 39% increase in size over the same peri- turbines to the grid. od last year. Only six out of the 16 sites under construction in 2017 will use turbines rated below or equal to 5 MW. Power producers own almost half (49%) of the capacity Seven sites will use 6 MW turbines, one site will use 7 MW connected to the grid in H1 2017. However, infrastructure turbines and two sites will use 8 MW turbines. 25 8 MW and pension funds are steadily increasing their participa- wind turbines have been grid-connected already at the tion, accounting for 38% in the first half of 2017,com- Burbo Bank extension wind farm in H1 2017. pared to 25.2% in the first half of 2016.
Northland Power connected the most capacity in the THE AVERAGE SIZE OF first half of 2017, 142 MW, representing 10.9%, followed GRID-CONNECTED TURBINES by DONG Energy with 139 MW (10.3%). Laidlaw Capital Group (10.2%), Siemens (9.9%) and Copenhagen Infra- ST IN THE 1 HALF OF 2017 WAS structure Partners (7.6%) completed the top five owners 5.8 MW in new additional capacity.
13 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 6 Offshore wind developers’ share of new grid connected capacity between 1st January and 30th June 2017
% Of new installed capacity 0% 1.5% 3% 4.5% 6% 7.5% 9% 10.5% 12% Northland Power
DONG Energy
Laidlaw Capital Group
Siemens Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners Statoil
Masdar
Statkraft Corporate 4% Parkwind
Sumitomo
Kirkbi A/S (Lego group)
PKA Power Financial Macquarie Capital Producer Service 49% 34% Vattenfall
Meewind
Stadtwerke München Industrial Player Innogy 10%
Suomen Hyötytuuli Oy
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 New installed capacity owned in MW
Source: WindEurope
14 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 The European wind energy market today
Investment trends
The wind energy industry generated new investments investment activity. In addition to the financing ofnew of €8.1bn during the first half of 2017. A total of 4.1 GW wind farms, the first half of 2017 also saw €3.2bn in refi- reached Final Investment Decision (FID) in 11 Member nancing transactions. The sector generated a total invest- States, with onshore wind projects driving most of the ment of €11.3bn.
FIGURE 7 Wind sector investments during H1 2017 in the EU. Total €11,351m
Refinancing Construction: transactions: Offshore wind Onshore and projects offshore wind €2,920m €3,209m
Construction: Onshore wind projects €5,222m Source: WindEurope
During the first half of 2017, the European market has remained very uneven, with only 11 EU Member States announcing new wind energy investments during this pe- riod; a trend that follows that of previous years. 53% Germany was the biggest investor, with over €4.5bn and OF NEW INVESTMENTS WERE 1.8 GW of new capacity financed. Investment activity in the country accounted for 53% of the European invest- IN GERMANY ments market.
With no offshore wind projects reaching FID in the UK, investments in this country dropped to a record low of €784 million.
15 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 The European wind energy market today
FIGURE 8 Wind investments per country during H1 2017 in the EU
4,500 4,500
4,000 4,000
3,500 3,500
3,000 3,000
2,500 2,500
2,000 2,000 MW mEUR 1,500 1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
0 0 y n UK a Italy rm Spain e France Greece Ireland Finland Austria G Sweden Belgium Total new investments (mEUR) Total new capacity financed (MW) Source: WindEurope
Only three offshore wind projects, totalling 834 MW in Ger- mated investment value of €2.9bn. This compares to €14bn many, reached FID during the first half of 2017 for an esti- and 3.7 GW in new assets.
FIGURE 9 Offshore wind projects reaching Final Investment Decision during H1 2017
EnbW Hohe See 492 MW project capacity € 1,800m project cost
€2.9bn new investments Trianel Windpark Borkum II 203 MW project capacity 834 MW new € 800m project cost capacity financed
OWP Albatros 112 MW project capacity € 320m project cost
Source: WindEurope
16 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 The European wind energy market today
The equity mix continues to bring in more corporates, surance, infrastructure and private equity funds, are grad- financial institutions and, in particular for offshore wind, ually increasing their participation in both onshore and overseas investors. However, power producers still lift offshore wind markets. During the first half of 2017, they most of the equity requirements, especially through the acquired 40% of the divested wind capacity. development phase. Finance houses, such as pension, in-
FIGURE 10 Project acquisition activity by type of investor during H1 2017 in the EU
Pension funds 338 MW 8%
Infrastructure funds 422 MW 10%
Diversified financial services 892 MW Power producers 22% 2,364 MW 57%
Independent power producers 113 MW 3% Source: WindEurope
17 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 2. MID-TERM WIND ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK
2.1 INTRODUCTION Towards market-based support schemes
The mid-term wind energy market outlook analy- Following the guidance of the European Commission, a ses the likely development of wind power capacity in large number of Member States have already moved to- the EU Member States in the next four years. It con- wards feed-in-premiums, limiting the use of feed-in-tar- sists of three scenarios reflecting the potential- de iffs to small installations and emerging renewable energy velopments in EU regulatory frameworks, national technologies. For instance, in Germany only installations policies, project development timelines (see Table 1) below 100 kW are eligible for feed-in-tariffs. A few coun- and the performance of the wind industry in winning tries such as Finland and Ireland still remain on feed-in-tar- capacity in upcoming technology-neutral auctions. iff systems but will need to update their support scheme before the end of 2017. Green certificates is another mar- ket-based instrument supported by the European Com- 2.2 POLICY CONTEXT mission. However, having already been abandoned by Poland and the UK for new projects, green certificates use In 2014 the European Commission introduced new rules is limited to Sweden, Norway and Belgium. on State-Aid for renewable energy sources. Those changes are taking effect today with a shift to competitive tender mechanisms and the use of market-based instruments. The European institutions are currently discussing the policy framework for the post-2020 period, mainly with the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive and a sig- nificant reform of Energy Market Design rules (the Clean Energy Package)2.
2. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/news/commission-proposes-new-rules-consumer-centred-clean-energy-transition
18 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
Considerations on projects’ development timeline
Wind energy projects are characterised by a significant time lapse between the moment a promoter is granted a support mechanism (e.g. tender results announcement) and the moment the wind farm starts to operate (grid connection). In the case of onshore wind projects, this time is approximately two years, while for offshore wind projects it can take around five years. The overall project timeline is much longer: this includes site investigation, resource assessment, -envi ronmental impact assessments and other technical studies and consultations with local communities and other admin- istrative procedures. This is why it is crucial to have good visibility on upcoming tenders and the regulatory framework.
Once a support mechanisms is granted or the capacity is awarded to the developer, the time allowed to realise projects is largely dependent on the regulatory framework. For instance, in Germany, large developers have a 30-month implemen- tation deadline while community projects are allowed to connect their turbines to the grid up to 54 months after auction allocation. This might in principle extend the time gap between auction results and new grid-connection installations.
Considering these timescales, the offshore volumes presented in this outlook (new installations grid-connected between 2017 and 2020) are therefore based on support allocation that has already taken place. The accuracy is thus very high. For onshore, the installations in 2017, 2018 and 2019 are mostly based on the support and volumes allocated before the end of 2016. However, there is a degree of uncertainty for installations in 2019 and 2020 that could be affected by upcoming planned tenders (Spain and France) and by tenders not yet announced at the time of publication.
For the investment outlook, onshore projects Final Investment Decision (FID) takes place 1 year before grid connection while the FID timescale for offshore wind projects is based on individual project analysis (from 2 to 3 years).
DEVELOPMENT PRE-CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION Phase
Environmental Grid & building Site conditioning, Construction planning permits, detailed design, and comissioning, & permitting, site layout, procurement, grid connection. feasibility studies, technology review. financial close. Activity wind assessment.
3-5 years 2-4 years 2 years Offshore Timing
2-5 years 1-2 years < 1 year Onshore
Support FID* allocation
19 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
*Final investment decision Mid-term wind energy market outlook
2020 RES targets setting the pace
As part of the European objectives for 2020, the binding These countries will need to accelerate the pace of in- targets for renewable energy will have a significant influ- stallations to fulfil their commitments. Poland is the only ence on wind energy installations for the next four years. country among the four aforementioned without any In Eastern Europe, most countries have already achieved clear plan/objective to the reach their target. their targets, which will lead to low installations in the coming years. Romania, which was once a leading country Other countries, such as Sweden and Denmark, have for the Eastern European market, will see no more new achieved or are well on track to reaching their 2020 tar- installations before the end of 2020. get but will continue to install more wind capacity beyond 2020. These countries have set national energy plans with By contrast, some countries are rushing to ensure they concrete renewable energy goals. As an example, Den- reach their objectives in the years leading into 2020. This mark is aiming to go for 100% renewable electricity by is the case of Spain, which after a few years of no activity, 2035, which forces a renewable trajectory to 2020 that has recently auctioned 8 GW of new renewable capacity goes far beyond the European target. Sweden, which (4.1 GW of wind energy awarded). plans to reach 100% of renewable electricity by 2040, will also need to overshoot its 2020 European target. France, Ireland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are like- ly to miss their targets, while Hungary and Poland have hindered any additional renewable energy deployment.
20 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook Policy Outlook Positive Neutral Negative
2020 RES target Achieved
On track Not on track
21 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
TABLE 2 Summary of wind energy policy landscape per Member State
COUNTRY UPCOMING DEVELOPMENTS Austria Changes in the Green Energy Act will unlock at least 350 MW in the current pipeline Large development offshore but some risks of retroactive changes on the already awarded Belgium support schemes Bulgaria No more incentives to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved
Czech Republic Wind installations to remain subject to Ministry of Industry approval The scheme for onshore wind expires in February 2018. One year stand still is unavoidable until Denmark new scheme introduced Estonia Incentives to remain with a yearly production cap at 600 GWh despite reaching their RES target
Finland FIT applications to end once the capacity limit of 2,500 MVA is exceeded
France Government objective of 15 GW by 2018 and at least 25.8 GW by 2023 Full switch to tenders system both for onshore and offshore with good visibility and long term Germany certainty
Greece Switch to auction system with Feed-in-Premium as of 2018
Hungary No incentives to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved
Ireland Ongoing discussions regarding a new incentive scheme that will replace REFIT II
Italy Auction system to remain but no planned auctions yet communicated Government sets a new target of 30% of RES in final energy consumption by 2020 (beyond their Lithuania original 2020 obligation) Projects still supported by the SDE+ (budget auction) until 2020. Target of 6 GW of onshore wind Netherlands by 2020 unlikely to be met. Offshore target of 4.5 GW by 2023 Current legislation highly restricts installations. Ongoing Parliament discussion to improve the Poland situation Portugal No more incentive to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved
Romania No more incentive to build new wind assets as 2020 RES target is achieved Revival of the market after three consecutive tenders in 2016-2017. Investment conditions Spain remain poor as retroactive changes are allowed in the regulation Target of addition 18 TWh RES electricity by 2030 but exponential trajectory with strong growth Sweden only at the end of the period End of the Renewable Obligation Certificate system. Offshore wind still supported through UK auctions
22 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
Tenders leading the pathway for market growth
The use of competitive bidding processes (e.g. tenders) producers need to reimburse the government if whole- as from January 2017 is another condition established by sale market prices are above the guaranteed strike price the European Commission in order for Member States to (e.g. contracts for difference in the UK). In other cases, comply with state-aid regulation. Prior to 2017, some gov- governments provide support to the investment (instead ernments had already implemented competitive auctions of operational support) calculated as a discount of the in- to select wind energy projects. After the first offshore itial investment to ensure a fixed internal rate of return Danish auction in 2005 (which lead to the wind farm (e.g. Spain). Some of the tenders are based on pay-as- Horns Rev 2), many offshore projects have been award- clear allocation (all producers receive the same amount, ed through auctions (in the UK, the Netherlands,- Ger resulting from the highest awarded bidder), while others many, France). Portugal was the first European country are based on pay-as-bid (e.g. offshore tender in Germany to use competitive auctions to award onshore projects, with large spread between the winners). but remained an isolated case until 2013 when Italy in- troduced this system. Until 2017, less than 10 GW were In addition, the timeline for project realisation is very -dif allocated to onshore wind via competitive auctions, main- ferent between onshore and offshore wind projects. Ten- ly in the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Portugal. ders for offshore wind energy projects awarded in 2017 need to be commissioned by 2025 at the latest, while Between 2017 and 2020, more than 27 GW are already onshore projects awarded the same year will need to pro- set in the plans of five countries for auctions includ- duce electricity by 2019. For offshore projects, the loca- ing wind energy. Most of this capacity will be auctioned tion (e.g. distance to shore, depth of the sea basin) is also in 2017, with more than 12 GW planned. We expect a determining factor for prices. other countries to make additional announcements.
The evolution of tender results for wind energy- inEu rope has recently shown drastic cost reductions. Howev- er, comparison between results is complex, owing to the widely differing range of tender designs. For instance, the AT LEAST OF price can be guaranteed for 10 or 20 years, or for a fixed 27 GW number of full-load hours (e.g. Denmark). In some cases, PLANNED AUCTIONS BETWEEN
2017 AND 2020
23 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 13 Announced tenders until 2020
2017 2018 2019 2020
500 MW 700 MW 800 MW 1,000 MW 700 MW 700 MW 1,000 MW 644 MW 1,000 MW 200 MW 500 MW 950 MW Unknown 700 MW April July October date April August November May November June 18.5 Onshore March May August November February May November February August February October GW
1,128 MW 500 MW 700 MW 500 MW 200 MW 500 MW 500 MW 950 MW 700 MW 2,979 MW Budget 700 MW 700 MW auction
1,550 MW 700 MW 700 MW 700 MW September March 8.4 Offshore May Unknown Unknown Unknown GW date date date
1,550 MW 3,196 MW
Technology neutral
Technology specific Source: WindEurope
24 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 14 Results of wind energy tenders 2013-2017. Transmission connection costs are only included in UK offshore project. Price range refers to tenders with pay-as bid prices or several tenders happening on the same date
200 180 160 140 120 100 / MWh € 80 60 40 20 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Price range Onshore Offshore Source: WindEurope 2.3 MARKET OUTLOOK
By 2020, wind energy in Europe will reach between 195 GW EU annual installations are expected to decrease in 2018 (Low Scenario) and 217 GW (High Scenario) of cumulative due to a slow-down in Germany and the UK. We expect installed capacity. WindEurope expects 204 GW in its Cen- a revival in 2019 with a record year for offshore wind in- tral Scenario with an average annual market of 12.6 GW. stallations and a massive amount of Spanish onshore in- stallations connecting to the grid as a result of the 4.1 GW For many countries in Europe, 2017 is a transitional year awarded in the two tenders in 2017. to new support schemes and tender mechanisms. There- fore, it is likely to see a peak of installations as developers However, the onshore market will experience a general rush to complete their projects in order to secure more slow-down in annual installations towards 2020, main- attractive conditions under the old existing rules. ly due to lower planned activity in the German onshore market.
While there is a good visibility on future projects in Spain, Germany, the Netherlands and France, the uncertainty on the time to deliver them will be a crucial factor that could 2017IS EXPECTED either accelerate (+5 GW in the High Scenario) or slow down (-3.5 GW in the Low Scenario) the market activity. TO BE A NEW RECORD In addition, the deployment of new tenders in Poland and the UK, could add new potential installations after 2019 YEAR IN WIND INSTALLATIONS (+2.5 GW in the High Scenario). Finally, some countries, including Ireland, Finland and Greece still need to define their new support schemes to comply with the EU State- Aid guidelines. Depending on how soon this happens the market could be up (+2.5 GW in the High Scenario) or down (-0.5 GW in the Low Scenario).
25 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
The offshore market will grow at a higher rate than today. Uncertainties included in the Low and High Scenarios are With an average 3.1 GW/year in WindEurope’s Central related to the risk of retroactive changes on the Belgian Scenario, offshore wind will represent about one quarter projects that were awarded without tenders and the of the total market by 2020 (compared to a 15% share potential installations of projects ahead of schedule in in the last 4-year period, between 2013 and 2016). The France, Germany or Estonia in the most optimistic pro- offshore market will concentrate mainly in the UK with 5.2 jections. GW or 42% of the new grid-connected capacity. Anoth- er four countries will see offshore installations: Germany (3.5 GW), Belgium (1.5 GW), the Netherlands (1.4 GW) and Denmark (1.0 GW). The offshore market will peak in 2019 with annual installations over 4 GW. OFFSHORE WILL REPRESENT ONE QUARTER OF THE MARKET BY 2020
FIGURE 15 Wind energy outlook to 2020 in the EU
18
16 14
12
10
8 GW 6
4
2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Onshore Offshore Low High Central
Source: WindEurope
26 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
In terms of cumulative installed capacity, Germany will remain the country with the most capacity installed with CUMULATIVE between 65.5 to 68.5 GW (66.5 GW in the Central Sce- nario). Spain will follow with 25 to 27.5 GW (26.5 GW in INSTALLED CAPACITY the Central Scenario) and the UK will be the third largest country with a total of 7.8 to 23.3 GW (22 GW in the Cen- COULD REACH tral Scenario), with almost half of that capacity (10 GW) being offshore. 204 GW IN 2020
FIGURE 16 Expected cumulative installed capacity until 2020
250
200
150 GW 100
50
0
2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Offshore Low High Source: WindEurope
2.3.1 CENTRAL SCENARIO
WindEurope’s Central Scenario provides a best estimate In the Central Scenario, the planned tenders in Germany, of the installed capacity in Europe in the next four years. France and Spain provide good visibility on the post-2018 This scenario takes into account the pipeline of wind ener- market development. In addition, in France and the Neth- gy projects and the ongoing and future legislation in each erlands, the objectives set respectively for 2023 and 2020 Member State that could enable the deployment of vol- provide clear guidance on the deployment of wind ca- umes. In addition, it reflects on a case-by-case basis the pacity. In Poland, the Wind Farm Act remains applicable, impact of the 2020 targets. For offshore wind, the Central putting a pipeline of 2.2 GW of onshore projects at risk. Scenario assumes that all projects are built according to a Also, the UK will decrease its activity in onshore wind from realistic timeline. 1.6 GW in 2016 to almost none in 2020, while shifting the government focus to offshore wind.
27 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 17 Wind energy market outlook in the EU28 under WindEurope’s Central Scenario
16 250
3.1 14 4 3 1.6 3.3 200 12 1.2 1.6 1.5 2.2 0.6 10 0.9 0.8 0.3 10.9 10.5 10.9 150 0.3 9.7 10 10.9 8 9 8.9 9.8 8.9 9.3 GW 0.1 8.6 8.6 0.1 8.1 100 6 7.1 6.5
4 Cumulative ( GW) 50 2
0 0
2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Offshore Cumulative Source: WindEurope
Under the central scenario, 2017 will mark a record year, the third largest European market and could install up to with a revival in 2019 and a considerable decrease to- 6.5 GW of additional wind energy by 2020. Spain, the Neth- wards 2020, with the lowest level observed since 2014. erlands and Belgium should follow with 3.7 GW, 3.2 GW Uncertainty for the onshore market after 2020 is very high and 2.3 GW respectively in the same 4-year period. as most EU Member States still do not have post-2020 en- ergy plans in place. Between 2017 and 2020 onshore installations will be 37.7 GW. Germany will be the leader in onshore wind with 12.9 GW, followed by France (6 GW) and Spain ONSHORE WIND ENERGY (3.7 GW). The UK will only be the fourth country in on- shore wind installations as it should install close to 2.6 GW. INSTALLATIONS IN 2020 The offshore market will concentrate mainly in the UK COULD BE THE LOWEST with 5.2 GW or 42% new grid-connected capacity in the period 2017-2020. Following the UK, another 4 countries will see offshore installations: Germany (3.5 GW), Belgium
SINCE 2008 (1.4 GW), the Netherlands (1.3 GW) and Denmark (1.0 GW).
In the Central Scenario, the market concentration in Ger- Germany will represent over one third of new installed many will gradually decrease from 40% in 2016 to less capacity in the next 4 years, with a total of 16.5 GW. The than 30% in 2020, thanks to significant developments in second largest market is the UK, with two thirds of its new France and Spain. installations offshore. With a government objective of 15 GW of cumulative capacity by 2018, France will become
28 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
However, the wind energy market will mostly be in West- ern European countries. Eastern Europe will have a very small proportion of the market in the next 4 years, with GERMANY WILL BE less than 3% of new installations, mostly in Poland, Croa- OF ALL NEW tia, Estonia and Czech Republic. ONE THIRD INSTALLED CAPACITY UNTIL 2020
FIGURE 18 4-year installations (2017-2020) per country under WindEurope’s Central Scenario*
18 3.5 12.9 16
14
12
10 GW 5.1 8 2.6 0.002 6 6 0.03 4 3.7 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.9 0 0.03 0.9 0 1.6 1.5 0.5 0 0.04 0 0 2 1.1 0.02 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.04 0
Onshore Offshore
*WindEurope expects no new installations in Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia
Source: WindEurope
29 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 19 Market share by region under WindEurope’s Central Scenario
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Germany South Western Europe France and Benelux UK and Ireland Others (Nordics & Austria) Central Eastern Europe
Source: WindEurope
2.3.2 LOW SCENARIO
In the Low Scenario, European governments propose no Market concentration resembles that of WindEurope’s positive improvements from current legislation. Conse- Central Scenario (see Figure 19), with most of the market quently, all countries with no incentives for wind energy activity in Western Europe. remain with no new installations even if they are yet to reach their renewable energy targets. The permitted and In Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and France, longer already supported pipeline is built but unfavourable na- time to deliver onshore projects will lead to respectively tional policies for permitting and planning persist; this re- 0.8 GW, 1.5 GW, 0.5 GW and 0.4 GW less installed capacity sults in a slow pace of installations for existing permitted in the period 2017-2020 than in the Central Scenario. In projects and in a significant slowdown for awarding new Sweden, the oversupply of green certificates would persist, projects. The outlook remains positive in countries that thereby decreasing their price. This would lead to 1.2 GW have sent strong political signals to the wind energy indus- less installed capacity than in the Central Scenario. Den- try in recent years. mark would see no new onshore wind capacity before the end of 2020 due to permitting issues and problems with Under the low scenario, whilst 2017 is still a good year in public acceptance. installations, in 2019, there is no significant revamp of the market (in contrast to the Central Scenario), and it progres- Offshore, WindEurope’s Low Scenario considers that the sively decreases towards the end of the 4-year period. Belgian projects support scheme awarded without ten- ders would be retroactively changed, which would lead to 600 MW less installed capacity than in the Central Scenario.
30 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 20 Annual and cumulative installations under WindEurope’s Low Scenario
14 250 3 1.5 1.6 2.8 12 1.2 1.6 3.6 200 0.6 2.9 10 0.9 0.8 10.9 10.9 0.3 10.5 2 0.3 9.7 10 9.8 8 9.6 150 0.1 8.6 9 8.9 0.1 8.1 GW 7.2 6 7.1 6.9 6.5 100 6.5 4 Cumulative ( GW) 50 2
0 0
2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Offshore Cumulative Source: WindEurope 2.3.3 HIGH SCENARIO
In the high scenario, all EU countries are able to achieve Importantly, markets that expect very few installations their 2020 renewable energy targets. The legislative under the Central Scenario such as Poland, Bulgaria or framework is improved in those countries where current Hungary would witness positive developments that would planning and permitting rules are slowing down or even allow for respectively 1.5 GW, 0.2 GW and 0.1 GW more jeopardizing the market. Those changes would allow de- capacity than in the Central Scenario. With this capacity, velopers to build the current project pipeline entirely. Eastern Europe would make up 8% of the market by 2020 Governments also boost the auction volumes to acceler- instead of 3% in the Central Scenario. ate the pace of installations and also ensure more cost re- duction. Offshore, all projects are built according to their Offshore, the high scenario sees the early realisation more optimistic schedule. of a few more projects than in the Central Scenario. Four 24 MW floating offshore wind pilot projects would After an impressive 2017 year record with over 16 GW be commissioned in France in 2020. In addition, Estonia of installed capacity (14 GW under the Central Scenario), would start commissioning its first offshore wind project, 2019 would mark another record with over 17 GW, 3.7 GW Loode Eesti Meretuulepark, with 250 MW installed out of more than under the Central Scenario. the 700-1,100 MW potential capacity of the full project. A cooperation agreement would be signed between the Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and France would ac- Hiiu rural municipality and the project developer. celerate their projects to reach respectively 2 GW, 1 GW, 1 GW and 0.7 GW more new installed capacity in the peri- od 2017-2020 than in the Central Scenario. The UK would launch a new 1 GW onshore wind tender that would in- crease its installed capacity by 2020.
31 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 21 Market and cumulative installations under WindEurope’s High Scenario
18 4.4 250 3.4 3.6 16 2.5 14 200 3 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 12 0.6 12.6 0.9 0.8 12.9 12.2 11.9 150 10 0.3 10.9 10.9 0.3 9.7 10.5
GW 9.8 8 0.1 8.6 9 8.9 10 0.1 8.1 100 6 7.1
6.5 Cumulative ( GW) 4 50 2 0 0
2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Onshore Offshore Cumulative Source: WindEurope
2.4 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
According to WindEurope, between 75 and 95 €bn in in- with regulatory uncertainty for the post-2020 period, is vestments in new assets will be needed moving forward also slowing down activity in some wind energy markets. to 2020. Under the Central Scenario, €90bn of invest- While auctions are being rolled out in a larger number of ments in new assets will be needed. markets, there will be a lull in investments before they lead to new project final investment decisions (FIDs). Whilst 2016 saw a record level of new investments, low- er volumes are expected in the next 4 years, mainly due to two reasons. Firstly, cost reductions across the value chain have made it possible for investors to finance more capacity with less funds. Secondly, the transition from Feed-in Tariffs to auctions and Feed-in-Premiums, along
32 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
FIGURE 22 Investment outlook in new assets for the period 2017-2020 under WindEurope’s Central Scenario (in bn€)9
30
25
20
15 € bn
10
5
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Offshore Onshore Source: WindEurope
9. Projects reaching final investment decision
33 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
2.5 GLOBAL WIND ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK
With more than 50 GW of new additions in the 2017-2020 period under the central scenario, the EU-28 will repre- sent slightly less than a quarter of global installations, NEW INSTALLATIONS significantly lower than China, which expects to install al- IN THE EU WILL REPRESENT most the double 84 GW. Onshore wind installations in the US will be similar to those in Europe. However, no addi- tions are expected on offshore wind technology. With 8% 22% of world’s market in the period, India is expected to bring additional 17 GW of onshore capacity. OF WORLD’S MARKET
FIGURE 23 Global wind installations in 2017-2020
Other 17% EU28 India 22% 7%
US 16% China 38%
90 80 70 60 50
GW 40 30 20 10 0 EU28 China US India
Onshore Offshore
Source: WindEurope, IEA
34 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
2.6 RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES OUTLOOK
Under WindEurope’s Central Scenario, wind power would account for more than half of new renewable installations between 2017 and 2020 in the EU. With 37% of new in- MORE THAN HALF OF NEW stallations, solar PV will become the second source of RENEWABLE INSTALLATIONS growth in renewable capacity. Solar PV and wind energy will together represent almost 90% of new renewable ca- IN THE EU WILL BE FROM pacity. WIND ENERGY
FIGURE 24 Net growth in renewable capacity in 2017-2020
Bioenergy 7%
Hydro 4% Other EU28 22%
Solar USPV Wind 37% 16% China52% 38%
60 50 40 30 GW 20 10 0 Wind Solar PV Hydro Bioenergy
Source: WindEurope, SolarPower Europe, IEA
35 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
2.7 WIND ENERGY GENERATION
In 2020, renewables will be able to power approximately & waste (190 TWh) would become the third renewable 35% of the EU’s electricity mix. With 468 TWh in the Cen- electricity source, followed by solar PV (155 TWh). tral Scenario, wind will overtake hydro (375 TWh) as the main source for renewable electricity generation. Biomass
FIGURE 25 Evolution of the EU’s electricity mix
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% Share in the power mix
30%
20%
10%
0%
2011 2000200120022003 200420052006 2007200820092010 20122013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 20192020
Wind Solar Hydro Biomass-waste Geothermal and other renewables Others
Source: WindEurope
36 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Mid-term wind energy market outlook
The share of wind energy in electricity demand has in- by wind energy. With an expected 30% share of wind creased significantly in the last 15 years, going from just in 2020, Germany will be the second highest country of 1% in 2000 up to 11% in 2015. And it is expected to con- wind energy penetration rate. Ireland, Portugal and Spain tinue growing, between 15.7% and 17.4% by the end of would follow with 29%, 27% and 24% of wind energy in 2020. WindEurope’s Central Scenario foresees a share of their electricity demand respectively. 16.5% of wind in the EU’s electricity demand. Wind ener- gy is thus expected to contribute significantly to the 2020 EU Renewable Energy target. WIND ENERGY WILL COVER 16.5% OF EU’S Denmark will remain the country with the highest share of wind power in its electricity demand. It will be the only ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY country with more than half of its electricity supplied 2020
FIGURE 26 Evolution of wind energy share in EU’s electricity demand
EU28
Denmark Germany Ireland Portugal Spain UK Estonia Netherlands Belgium Sweden Romania Lithuania Greece Austria Poland France Croatia Cyprus Italy Bulgaria Finland Luxembourg Malta Latvia Hungary Czech Republic Slovenia Slovakia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: WindEurope
37 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 3. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
Wind turbine technology is facing a dramatic shift in both onshore and offshore markets, with a constant increase of MOST ONSHORE TURBINES turbine capacity. ORDERED IN H1 2017 ARE Towards 4 MW onshore wind platforms
In the first quarter of 2017, above 90% of onshore wind ABOVE turbines ordered for delivery in 2018 to 2020 were above 3 MW10 , a trend that is set to continue toward larger and 3 MW
FIGURE 27 Capacity rating of ordered onshore wind turbines in Europe
100% 3.5 90% 3 80% 70% 2.5
60% 2 50% MW 40% 1.5 30% 1 20% 0.5 10% Average rating per turbine (MW) 0% 0
1.5 to 2 MW 2 to 2.5 MW 2.5 to 3 MW 3 to 3.5 MW 3.5 to 4 MW 4.5 to 5 MW
Average turbine rating Source: WindEurope
10. See WindEurope’s quarterly turbines order monitoring (members only)
38 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Technology trends
In 2017, 4 MW platforms have appeared in almost every to IEC III (light winds). Within these platforms, there is a European turbine manufacturers’ book and will be ready very wide range of rotor diameters from 117 metres (for for installation as of 2018. The product diversity will allow high winds) to 150 metres (light winds). operations from all wind sites between IEC I (high winds)
FIGURE 28 3.8 MW+ onshore turbines currently available in Europe (size of the bubble represents the rotor diameter)
5.5 G128 - 5.0 G132 - 5.0 5.0
E - 141 EP4 V150 - 4.0/4.2 4.5 E - 126 EP4
4.0 V117 - 4.0/4.2
Turbine rating (MW) GE 3.8 - 130 3.5 V136 - 4.0/4.2 N131/3900
3.0 0 1 2 3 Main IEC class
Enercon Siemens Gamesa GE Renewable Energy Vestas Nordex
Source: WindEurope
39 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Technology trends
Beyond 7 MW offshore wind platforms
In the first quarter of 2017, all offshore wind turbines already started in 2016 and is expected to continue lead- ordered were in the 7 to 9 range, following a trend that ing towards larger machines.
FIGURE 29 Capacity rating of ordered offshore wind turbines in Europe
100% 9 90% 8 80% 7 70% 6 60% 5 50% 4 40% 3 30% 20% 2 1
10% Average rating per turbine (MW) 0% 0
0 to 3 MW 3 to 6 MW 6 to 7 MW 7 to 8 MW 8 to 9 MW Average turbine rating Source: WindEurope
40 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Technology trends
FIGURE 30 Recent 7 MW+ offshore turbines currently available in Europe (size of the bubble represents the rotor diameter)
11 V164 - 9.0 MW 10 V164 - 8.3 MW AD 8- 180 9 V164 - 8.0 MW 8 SWT-8.0 - 154 7 Turbine rating (MW) SWT- 7.0 - 154 SE6.2M 152 6 SWT-6.0 - 154
5 S 1 Main IEC class
Adwen MHI Vestas Offshore Wind Siemens Wind Power Senvion
Source: WindEurope
An increasing number of platforms above 7 MW have been introduced in turbine manufacturers’ book since 2016. The rated capacity of offshore wind turbines has grown significantly over the past decade, facilitating the OFFSHORE TURBINES harnessing of sites with higher wind speeds (IEC 1) and ORDERED SINCE 2016 ARE capable of operating under extreme weather conditions (IEC S). Within these platforms, there is a very wide range of rotor diameters from 128 metres (for high winds) to ABOVE 180 metres (light winds).
Floating offshore is coming of age 7 MW
Floating offshore wind (FOW) is on the rise. While FOW in the offshore wind supply chain, enabling costs to fall technology was previously confined to R&D, the technol- significantly in the years to come. 9 projects, with a total ogy has developed significantly in recent years, and FOW of 338 MW of capacity are planned to be commissioned is now ready to be deployed into the market. Semisub- by 2021 in France, the UK, Ireland and Portugal. 11 mersible and spar buoy floating substructures are now deemed appropriate for launch and operations, while the The Hywind Scotland floating wind farm, the first com- barge and the tension leg platform (TLP) floating substruc- mercial project, is expected to go live before the end of ture concepts are still under development and will be op- 2017, with the first turbines already towed to site in July erational in the coming years. The floating offshore wind 2017. sector will benefit from the latest technologies available
11. A detailed list of projects with capacity and commissioning date is available in WindEurope’s Floating vision statement, June 2017
41 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020 Technology trends
FIGURE 31 The four main technologies for floating offshore wind
Barge
Semi- submersible
Tension leg platform Spar
Source: WindEurope
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43 Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020
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