The Sovereign Wealth Fund 2020 Report
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CENTER FOR THE GOVERNANCE OF CHANGE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS 2020 FIGHTING THE PANDEMIC, EMBRACING CHANGE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS 2020 Table of Contents 3 Preface Editor: Javier Capapé Aguilar, PhD Adjunct Professor and Director, 5 Executive Summary Sovereign Wealth Research, Center for the Governance of 12 Chapter 1. A year of “living dangerously”: The COVID pandemic and Change, IE University sovereign wealth funds direct investments 2019-2020 21 Chapter 2. Pillars of the post-pandemic economy: SWFs go from hotels to warehouses 31 Chapter 3. Latin America and the Caribbean SWFs: From fighting the Covid-19 to unveiling strategic opportunities 42 Chapter 4. SWFs In-Depth. The great experiment: China Investment Corporation in Europe and beyond 50 Annex 1. Sovereign Wealth Research Ranking. Sovereign Wealth Research 55 Annex 2. Sovereign Wealth Funds in Spain: The growing role of the Sopef The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the ICEX-Invest in Spain or its members. 2 SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS 2020 Since the first news of the COVID-19 in January to the rescue of the private sector and families. The 2020 up until the presentation of this report, the scale of the monetary and fiscal response, particu- pandemic has caused 109 million cases and over 2.4 larly in the United States and the European Union, million deaths worldwide. Inevitably, in their at- is almost unprecedented and marks a step forward tempts to halt the spread of the virus, over the cour- and a possible point of no return in the role assu- se of the last year governments have taken unpre- med by states in a crisis of this magnitude. cedented measures in the form of business closures and mobility bans. This has led to a sharp downturn In any case, in 2021 the consensus is that the world in supply (production) and demand, which, coupled economy will bounce back, and the IMF forecasts with the climate of extreme uncertainty, has cau- growth of 5.5%, supported mainly by the effective- sed economic activity around the world to collapse. ness and spread of the vaccine and in anticipation According to data from the International Monetary of greater control of the health crisis, which will Fund (IMF), the global economy shrank by 3.5% in allow the economy to return to growth. However, 2020, the steepest decline in recent decades. Mo- this scenario continues to be shrouded in uncer- reover, unlike in other financial crises, all economic tainty, and the countries’ economic activity will re- regions have experienced sharp drops or slowdowns cover at different speeds depending on their access in their activity, in a global economy that is increa- to vaccines and their vaccination capacity, but also singly interconnected through multiple channels on the strengths and vulnerabilities of their busi- (commercial, investment, financial). ness sector in the post-crisis period. In addition to the peculiarities of this particular crisis and its pos- Among advanced economies, the greatest impact sible short-term repercussions, it should be noted was seen in the Eurozone (-7.2%) and the United that the pandemic would leave significant structu- Kingdom (-10%), two of the areas that were hardest ral changes in various areas, notably in terms of ac- hit by the pandemic, with the United States (-3.4%) celerating technological disruption in business and shrinking somewhat less. In terms of emerging eco- tempering globalization as we know it today. PREFACE nomies, the decline in activity in Latin America (-7.4%) and India (-8%) was particularly significant. Sovereign wealth funds have not escaped the im- SOVEREIGN WEALTH The exception among the major economies was pact of this extraordinary economic situation in the FUNDS REPORT 2020 China, whose economic performance, although far world economy, and have sought to reorient their below previous years, still enjoyed positive growth strategies in response to these exceptional circum- rates in 2020 (+2.3%). It should be noted that the stances. In any case, in an environment with a need María Peña Mateos collapse of economic activity in the world would for high investment to drive economic recovery, the Chief Executive Officer, ICEX have been much greater had it not been for the ex- role of these instruments, which for the first time ceptional measures taken by governments to come in history surpassed the 9 trillion dollars barrier in Susana Malcorra Dean, School of Global and Public Affairs, IE University 3 SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS 2020 Preface assets under management, is more important than from July 2019 to September 2020, the total value of ever before. They can play a critical role as both a sovereign fund transactions was down to 43 billion fiscal cushion and in leading strategic investment dollars, a heavy drop compared to our previous re- projects for a more sustainable future. It should be port, yet not translated to deal activity, which con- recalled that sovereign wealth funds have become tinued strong and focus on technology, life sciences mainstream players in the world financial economy, and services. both influenced by and influencing business trends. This sovereign wealth funds report, a joint project In addition to these trends, the analysis in this nin- by ICEX-Invest in Spain and IE University, offers a th edition is enriched by several aspects of interest rigorous in-depth analysis of these and other issues and includes an in-depth focus on one sector, one that are essential for an understanding of the new region and one sovereign fund. Concerning the sec- economic landscape in which we currently live. It tor, we examine the continued interest in logistics also maps the 95 active sovereign funds, with their real estate reinforced by the rise of e-commerce in investment and portfolio-forming strategies. the post-pandemic world. The study of the geogra- phic area consists of a novel analysis of the sove- According to the current 2020 edition of the report, reign funds currently operating in Latin America, the pandemic has reinforced pre-existing thematic with a proposal that they can be used both as ins- trends among long-term investors. In addition, the truments for stabilizing the economic cycle and for report shows the heterogeneity and paradoxes of strategic1 investment goals. The “in-depth” analysis an industry in transformation. SWFs keep pushing focuses on China Investment Corporation (CIC), for alternative sources of energy, mobility or food, the world’s second-largest of its kind and one of the investing heavily in tech-based companies and fo- main investment arms of the Chinese government. cusing on four major markets: the United States, Finally, we include a ranking of the currently active China, India and the United Kingdom. Simulta- and prospective sovereign wealth funds and analy- neously, real estate (not only industrial but offices se the latest transactions carried out in Spain. As and hotels) and infrastructure (not only communi- in previous years, we hope the report will generate cations but mid-stream natural gas assets and road greater and better knowledge of these institutional transportation) remain attractive target sectors. As investors, and that it will continue to be a useful said, SWFs have been instrumental during the pan- tool for professionals in the field of investment. demic supporting some of the large-scale vaccine development programs, procuring medical equip- ment, or contributing to national economic and so- cial emergency plans. This emergency focus and the uncertainty of the global lockdowns explain why 4 SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS 2020 A Year of “Living Dangerously”: The COVID Pandemic and Sovereign Wealth Fund Direct Investments in 2019-2020 As stores of surplus capital, a primary raison d’etre of many SWFs is to serve as fiscal buffers to provide The most active Sovereign fiscal support to owner governments. During the CO- Wealth Funds 2019-2020 VID pandemic, as lockdowns deepened, economic ac- Deal count and of total deals tivity ground to a stop, impeding revenue generation, while dramatically increasing the demands on fiscal resources both directly and indirectly. In many cases, Temasek sovereign funds were called on to offset burgeoning 0 (36.4%) budget gaps and to stabilize rapidly depleting fiscal resources even as budgets were cut and affected go- GIC Pte Ltd. vernments scrambled to find other available funding 4 2 – including credit – to backstop the economic and Muadala financial impacts of the crisis. Reported drawdowns 1 0 were widespread, ranging from large funds such as in Qatar, Russia, Singapore, and even Norway, where atar Investment Authority nearly 5% of the Government Pension Fund Global’s 14 (8.5%) 1 capital was earmarked for fiscal support, to small Russian Direct Investment Fund funds – as in Ghana, Nigeria, or Botswana – that are far less well-resourced. 8 CDP Euity Beyond direct fiscal support to owner governments, 4 2 SWFs engaged in a variety of other supplemental measures, designed to provide relief to distressed COFIDES EXECUTIVE sectors of local economies. Mubadala Investment 3 Company (United Arab Emirates), for example, ro- Turkey Wealth Fund lled out a $114 million rent relief plan in the retail, 3 (1.8%) SUMMARY residential, office, and hospitality sectors. In Rus- sia, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) has Au Dhai Investment Authority been actively engaged in various phases of its go- 3 vernment’s vaccine development efforts, including investing in vaccine production. Besides, when and Source: S W R IE where appropriate, funds – from Singapore or Ma- G SNET F S T U laysia to Turkey have stepped in to fund or recapita- 20S 2020 lize local firms operating in key state sectors. 5 SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS 2020 Executive Summary FIGURE Top 5 sectors 2019-2020 Percentage of total deal volume Our 2019-20 survey of sovereign wealth fund tran- periences of Temasek and GIC suggest.