FUTURE MEGAFIRES AND SMOKE IMPACTS Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program Project #11-1-7-4 September 30, 2015 Lead Investigators: Narasimhan K. Larkin, U.S. Forest Service John T. Abatzoglou, University of Idaho Renaud Barbero, University of Idaho Crystal Kolden, University of Idaho Donald McKenzie, U.S. Forest Service Brian Potter, U.S. Forest Service E. Natasha Stavros, University of Washington E. Ashley Steel, U.S. Forest Service Brian J. Stocks, B.J. Stocks Wildfire Investigations Contributing Authors: Kenneth Craig, Sonoma Technology Stacy Drury, Sonoma Technology Shih-Ming Huang, Sonoma Technology Harry Podschwit, University of Washington Sean Raffuse, Sonoma Technology Tara Strand, Scion Research Corresponding Author Contacts: Dr. Narasimhan K. (‘Sim’) Larkin Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
[email protected]; 206-732-7849 Prof. John T. Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho
[email protected] Dr. Donald McKenzie Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
[email protected] ABSTRACT “Megafire” events, in which large high-intensity fires propagate over extended periods, can cause both immense damage to the local environment and catastrophic air quality impacts on cities and towns downwind. Increases in extreme events associated with climate change (e.g., droughts, heat waves) are projected to result in more frequent and extensive very large fires exhibiting extreme fire behavior (IPCC, 2007; Flannigan et al., 2009), especially when combined with fuel accumulation resulting from past fire suppression practices and an expanding wildland-urban interface. Maintaining current levels of fire suppression effectiveness is already proving challenging under these conditions, making more megafires a strong future possibility.