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Food & Drink R Ood & Drink Report Q2 2019 www.fitchsolutions.com Egypt Food & Drink Report Includes 5-year forecasts to 2023 Egypt Food & Drink Report | Q2 2019 Contents Key View............................................................................................................................................................................................4 SWOT..................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Food & Drink SWOT...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Industry Forecast...........................................................................................................................................................................6 Food ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Drink................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Industry Risk/Reward Index....................................................................................................................................................14 MENA Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Risk/Reward Index: Saudi Arabia Gradually Scales Up Rankings....................................................14 Market Overview..........................................................................................................................................................................23 Food .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................23 Drink.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Mass Grocery Retail....................................................................................................................................................................................................................31 Competitive Landscape.............................................................................................................................................................34 Company Profile...........................................................................................................................................................................36 Al Ahram Beverages (Heineken)...........................................................................................................................................................................................36 Mondelēz Egypt ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................38 Cairo Poultry Company ............................................................................................................................................................................................................40 Coca-Cola Egypt..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................42 PepsiCo Egypt..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................44 Faragalla..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................46 Juhayna Food Industries ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................48 Majid Al Futtaim (Carrefour)....................................................................................................................................................................................................51 Metro (Mansour Group)............................................................................................................................................................................................................53 Spinneys Group...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................55 Egypt Demographic Outlook....................................................................................................................................................57 Food & Drink Glossary................................................................................................................................................................60 Food & Drink Methodology.......................................................................................................................................................61 © 2019 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. All rights reserved. All information, analysis, forecasts and data provided by Fitch Solutions Group Limited is for the exclusive use of subscribing persons or organisations (including those using the service on a trial basis). All such content is copyrighted in the name of Fitch Solutions Group Limited and as such no part of this content may be reproduced, repackaged, copied or redistributed without the express consent of Fitch Solutions Group Limited. All content, including forecasts, analysis and opinion, has been based on information and sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. Fitch Solutions Group Limited makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from opinion, errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the content. This report from Fitch Solutions Macro Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright © 2019 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' credit ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research. fitchsolutions.com 3 Egypt Food & Drink Report | Q2 2019 Key View Key View: We expect Egypt's food and drink industry will continue its recovery during 2019 as inflation subsides and onsumerc purchasing power improves on the back of rebounding economic growth. We forecast total spending on food to increase by 15.0% in 2019. Within the drinks industry, the non-alcoholic drinks segment, specifically fruit juices, will outperform alcohol categories throughout our five-year forecast period. Nevertheless, we anticipate Egyptian consumers to remain price-conscious, with purchasing preferences remaining oriented towards everyday staples and cheaper, locally-sourced food and drink options. Food and Drink Spending (2016-2023) e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: National Statistics, Fitch Solutions Latest Updates And Industry Developments • We forecast headline food sales in US dollar terms to continue to recover over 2019, rising by 15.0%, reaching USD34.6bn, up from USD30.0bn in 2018. That said, it will take time (2020 at earliest) for food spending to return to the 2015 highs (USD38.3bn) seen prior to the currency devaluation in 2016. • In January 2019, France-based dairy producer Lactalis, which already has a subsidiary in Egypt, acquired 100% of the Greenland Group for an undisclosed sum. Founded in 1995, Greenland has 8 factories in Egypt producing cheese, ghee, milk, juices and other fresh dairy products, and exports to 50 countries globally. • Pepsico Egypt announced in October 2018 that it would be pumping new investments worth USD515mn over the coming four years while also allocating more than USD16mn to develop production lines in the beverages sector to promote its operations in Egypt. • Mass grocery retail chains operating in Egypt are confronting increased price sensitivity among consumers by running promotions, creating loyalty programs, and offering bulk discounts. In some cases, they have also substituted imported products for domestic alternatives. THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED
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