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Study of the Communïty Benefit of a Fixed Channel Crossing

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Study of the Communïty Benefit of a Fixed Channel Crossing 03 COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES STUDY OF THE COMMUNÏTY BENEFIT OF A FIXED CHANNEL CROSSING REV1SED MAIN REPORT JANUARY 1980 COOPERS & LYBRAND ASSOCIATES LIMITED MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMIC CONSULTANTS 1/ i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 0 INTRODUCTION / 0.1 The Previous Channel Studies 0.1 0.2 Objectives of This Study 0.13 1 MODELLING TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR ACROSS THE CHANNEL j 1.1 Préface 1.1 1.1.1 Objectives 1.1 1.1.2 Division of Modelling Responsibility 1.2 1.2 The Models: UK Leisure Travel to Europe 1.3 1.2.1 Modelling UK Leisure Travel to Continental Europe 1.3 1.2.2 The Model of Demand for UK Leisure Trips Abroad 1.3 1.2.3 Geographical Distribution of UK Leisure Trip Demand 1.7 1.2.4 The Model of Trip Type 1.8 1.2.5 The Model of Destination Choice 1.9 1.2.6 The Model of Route Choice 1.10 1.2.7 The Route Choice Model for Car Travellers 1.11 1.2.8 The Choice between Ship and Hovercraft 1.14 1.2.9 The Route Choice Model for Independent Non-Car Travellers 1.15 1.2.10 The Route Choice Model for Package Travellers 1.16 1.3 The Models: the SETEC Model of Continental Leisure Travel to the UK 1.18 1.4 The Models: Business Travel Across the Channel 1.19 1.4.1 The Model of UK Business Travel Demand 1.19 1.5 The Models: Non-European Travel Across the Channel 1.23 1.5.1 Non-European Travel Demand 1.23 003 Page 1.6 The Models: Freight 1.27 1.6.1 The SETEC Model of Demand for Freight Travel 1.27 1.6.2 Route Choice for Freight Traffic 1.27 1.6.3 Patterns of Freight Movement in 1977 1.28 1.6.4 The Costs of Various Modes of Freight Transport 1.29 1.6.5 Ro-Ro Haulage Charges 1.30 1.6.6 Lo-Lo Container Haulage Charges 1.30 1.6.7 Road Vehicle Ro-Ro and Lo-Lo Container Sea Crossing Tariffs 1.31 1.6.8 Rail Haulage and Sea-Crossing Tariffs 1.31 1.6.9 Summary of Haulage Costs 1.33 1.6.10 Transit Times for Various Modes 1.33 1.6.11 Port and Sea-Crossing Times 1.35 1.6.12 The Model of Route Choice for Freight 1.36 1.6.13 The Application of the Freight Route Choice Models 1.37 2 THE BASE FORECASTS 2.1 Préface 2.1 2.1.1 Division of Responsibility 2.1 2.1.2 The Use of the Models in Forecasting 2.1 2.1.3 Developments in Passenger Traffic 1972-77 2.2 2.2 The Economie and Démographie Assumptions Made 2.5 2.2.1 Population Growth 2.5 2.2.2 Gross Domestic Product and Consumers1 Expenditure 2.5 2.2.3 Changes in Relative Priées 2.7 2.2.4 Other Exogenous Variables 2.9 2.2.5 Household Size 2.9 2.2.6 Car Ovmership 2.11 2.2.7 Travel Impédance in the UK 2.12 2.2.8 Friends and Relatives Abroad 2.12 2.2.9 Miscellaneous. 2.12 004 Page 2.3 The Base Forecast of UK Leisure Trips Abroad 2.13 2.3.1 The Base Forecast of Total Demand 2.13 2.3.2 Geographical Distribution cf UK Demand 2.14 2.3.3 Forecasts of UK Leisure Trip Demand by Type 2.16 2.3.4 Forecasts of UK Leisure Trip Demand by Destination 2.17 2.4 The Base Forecast of Continental Leisure Trips to the UK 2.18 2.5 Summary of Base Forecasts of Leisure Trips 2.19 2.6 The Base Forecast of the Demand for Business Trips 2.21 2.6.1 Business Trips by UK Résidents 2.21 2.6.2 Business Trips by Continental Résidents 2.24 2.6.3 Summary of the Forecasts of Business Trips 2.24 2.7 The Base Forecast of the Demand for Travel by Non-Europeans 2.26 2.8 The Base Forecast for Freight Traffic 2.27 2.8.1 Total Trade Flows 2.27 2.8.2 Unitised Trade Flows 2.27 2.8.3 The Forecast of Unitisation 2.28 3 ROUTE CHOICE IN THE ABSENCE OF A LINK 3.1 Cross-Channel Services in the Absence of a Link 3.1 3.2 UK Leisure ïraffic 3.4 3.2.1 Car Travellers 3.4 3.2.2 Independent Non-Car Travellers 3.4 3.2.3 Package Travellers 3.6 3.3 Continental Leisure Traffic SETEC 3.4 Business Traffic SETEC 3.5 Non-European Traffic SETEC 3.6 Freight 3.7 005 Page 4 THE ALTERNATIVES 4.1 Préface 4.1 4.1.1 The Major Alternatives 4.1 4.1.2 Structure of the Alternatives 4.1 4.1.3 The Alternatives Analysed 4.2 4.1.4 The Relevance of the Analysis to Other Alternatives 4.2 4.2 The Single-Track Rail Tunnel 4.3 4.2.1 Description: Capacity 4.3 4.2.2 Opération 4.3 4.2.3 Associated Capital Investment 4.4 4.2.4 Capital Costs 4.4 4.2.5 Services Offered 4.5 4.3 The Double-Track Rail Scheme 4.6 4.3.1 Description: Capacity 4.6 4.3.2 Opération 4.7 4.3.3 Associated Capital Investment 4.7 4.3.4 Capital Costs 4.8 4.3.5 Services Offered 4.10 4.4 The 'LINKINTOEUROPE' Road Bridge Scheme 4.11 4.4.1 Description: Capacity 4.11 4.4.2 Associated Capital Costs 4.11 4.4.3 Associated Capital Improvements 4.11 4.4.4 Services Offered 4.12 4.5 A Road Bridge and Single-Track Rail Combination 4.13 4.6 Other Fixed Link Schemes 4.14 4.6.1 Other Variants of the 'LINKINTOEUROPE' Bridge Scheme 4.14 4.6.2 The Euro-Bridge Scheme and Its Variants 4.14 4.6.3 The Channel Tunnel Island Project 4.15 4.6.4 Wimpey and Others: A Submerged-Tube Double-Track Tunnel 4.16 4.6.5 The Channel Bridge Group: Wide Span Bridge Project 4.16 006 Page 4.7 Other Technological Developments 4.17 4.7.1 Jetfoil 4.17 4.7.2 Airships 4.17 4.7.3 A Pipeline 4.18 4.8 Physical and Service Characteristics of a New Link 4.19 5 TARIFFS 5.1 Pricing Policy 5.1 5.2 Passenger Tariffs on the Link and on Compétitive Crossings 5.2 5.3 Freight Tariffs 5.3 5.3.1 Scénarios 5.3 5.3.2 Reactions Assurned 5.4 5.4 Taxation 5.8 6 ROUTE CHOICE IN THE PRESENCE OF A LINK 6.1 UK Leisure Trips to Europe 6.1 6.1.1 Car Trave11ers 6.1 6.1.2 Non-Car Travellers 6.2 6.1.3 Summary of UK Leisure Traffic on Links 6.3 6.2 Freight 6.5 6.3 Summary of Traffic on the Link 6.7 7 THE EFFECT OF A FIXED LINK ON EXISTING MODES AND OPERATORS 7.1 Ferry Operators 7.1 7.1.1 Approach 7.1 7.1.2 Calculation of Capital Cost of New Vessels 7.2 7.1.3 Operating Costs 7.6 7.1.4 Revenues 7.8 7.1.5 Summary 7.9 7.2 The Ports 7.12 7.2.1 Capital Investinent 7.12 7.2.2 Existing and Proposed Port Capacity 7.14 7.2.3 Forecast of Demand for Port Facilities 7.14 7.2.4 Loss of Port Revenue • 7.16 7.2.5 Réduction in Port Operating Costs 7.17 007 Page 7.3 Aviation 7.19 7.3.1 Airports 7.19 v7.3.2 Airlines 7.19 7.4 Railway Operators 7.21 7.4.1 Capital Costs 7.21 7.4.2 Passenger Revenues 7.21 7.4.3 Freight Revenues 7.22 7.4.4 Operating Costs 7.22 • 7.4.5 Continental Railways 7.23 7.5 Road Authorities 7.24 7.5.1 UK 7.24 7.5.2 Continental Europe 7.24 7.6 Road Freight Haulage Costs and Revenues 7.25 8 METHODS OF EVALUATION 8.1 The Approach 8.1 8.1.1 Indicated by the Terms of Référence 8.1 8.1.2 Contrast with a UK Transport Cost-Benefit Approach 8.1 8.2 Community Interest 8.2 8.2.1 Information for an EEC Décision 8.2 8.2.2 Community Policies 8.4 8.2.3 The Relevance of Cost-Benefit Analysis 8.4 8.2.4 The Différent Approaches to be Adopted 8.4 8.3 Summary 8.5 9 PROFITABILITY OF A FIXED LINK 9.1 Assumptions 9.1 9.1.1 Revenues and Costs Covered 9.1 9.1.2 Uncertainty 9.1 9.1.3 The Choice of Discount Rates 9.2 9.1.4 Tariffs 9.3 9.1.5 Inflation 9.3 008 Page 9.2 Capital Costs 9.3 9.3 Revenues 9.4 9.4 Operating Costs Formulae 9.5 9.4.1 Single-Track Tunnel 9.5 9.4.2 Double-Track Tunnel 9.7 9.4.3 Road Bridge 9.7 9.4.4 Road Bridge and Single Rail Combination 9.8 9.5 Operating Costs 9.8 9.6 Operating Surpluses 9.9 9.7 Profitability 1.10 9.8 Interprétation 9.11 9.8.1 The Tunnels 9.11 9.8.2 The Tunnels or the Bridge 9.12 9.8.3 The Single-Track Rail Facility and the Bridge 9.13 9.9 Tariff Sensitivity Tests 9.14 9.9.1 A Compétitive Response from the Ferries for Non-Car Passengers 9.14 .9.9.2 A Compétitive Response from the Ro-Ro Ferries 9.16 9.10 Conclusion 9.17 10 THE TRANSPORT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS 10.1 The Interests to be Considered 10.1 10.2 Choice of Discount Rates 10.2 10.3 User Benefits 10.3 10.3.1 Division of Responsibility 10.3 10.3.2 The Approach 10.3 10.4 Calculation of User Benefits 10.5 10.4.1 UK Leisure Travel to Europe 10.5 10.4.2 Continental Leisure Travel to the UK 10.8 10.4.3 UK and Continental Business Travel 10.9 10.4.4 Non-European Travel 10.9 10.4.5 Freight 10.11 009 Page 10.5 Summary of User Benefits 10.12 10.6 Impact on Ferry Operators 10.12 10.6.1 Capital Costs 10.13 10.6.2 Revenues 10.20 10.6.3 Operating Costs 10.20 10.7 Summary of Impact on Ferry Operators 10.21 10.8 Impact on UK ports 10.23 10.8.1 Capital Costs 10.23 10.8.2 Revenues 10.32 10.8.3 Operating Costs 10.35 10.9 Summary of Impact on UK Ports 10.36 10.10 Impact on Continental Ports 10.37 10.11 Impact on Airlines and Airports 10.37 10.12 Impact on UK Railway Operators 10.38 10.12.1 Capital Costs 10.38 10.12.2 Revenues 10.40 10.12.3 Operating Costs 10.41 10.13 Summary of Impact Impact on Railways 10.43 10.14 Impact on Continental Railways 10.44 10.14.1 Capital Costs 10.44 10.14.2 Operating Surpluses 10.45 .
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