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MONTHLY November 2018 MONTHLY AugustOctober 2018 2018 The publication prepared exclusively for PERN S.A. Date of publication in the public domain: 19th17th NovemberSeptember 2018. 2018. CONTENTS 8 11 28 SPY HUNTING RUSSIA’S FSB SHAKEN BY MORE RUSSIAN BASES IN RUSSIA REGIONAL RESHUFFLES IN CENTRAL ASIA? PUTIN’S VOICES SOLID DRY-DOCK BREAKDOWN SUPPORT FOR GRU MILITARY COMPLICATES KREMLIN’S 3 INTELLIGENCE 17 NAVAL PLANS RUSSIA’S NEW WEAPON: PUTIN PUTIN PLEASED WITH MACRON’S 4 DID NOT KEEP HIS WORD IDEA OF FORMING 19 A EUROPEAN ARMY TALIBAN DELEGATION TO VISIT 5 MOSCOW KADYROV’S OIL ASSETS: END OF THE WAR FOR CHECHEN THE KREMLIN TO STRENGTHEN 20 RESOURCES 7 RUSSIA’S FAR EAST GAZPROM’S LAVISH SPENDING 8 SPY HUNTING IN RUSSIA ON NORD STREAM 2 AND 22 TURKISH STREAM RUSSIA AND CUBA: UNITED IN 10 THE FACE OF A COMMON ENEMY OIL COMPANIES KEEP PAYING OFF 23 THEIR DEBTS TO THE KREMLIN RUSSIA’S FSB SHAKEN BY REGIONAL 11 RESHUFFLES CASPIAN OPPORTUNITY 25 FOR THE WEST A NEW REVOLUTIONARY TERRORISM: RUSSIA’S FSB HEAD ROSNEFT AND LUKOIL IN A ROW 13 IDENTIFIES THE ENEMY OVER OIL SUPPLIES IN RUSSIA’S 26 FAR NORTH RUSSIAN-AUSTRIAN PROBLEM WITH THE GRU MORE RUSSIAN BASES IN 14 IN THE BACKGROUND 28 CENTRAL ASIA? U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY RICK RUSSIA HELPS VENEZUELA PERRY VISITS POLAND: BAD 29 ALLEVIATE THE CRISIS 16 NEWS FOR RUSSIA’S GAZPROM 31 ROSNEFT AFRAID OF SANCTIONS www.warsawinstitute.org 2 SOURCE: KREMLIN.RU 5 November 2018 PUTIN VOICES SOLID SUPPORT FOR GRU MILITARY INTELLIGENCE Vladimir Putin’s presence in a ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of Russia’s military intelligence services – as well as his speech – clearly indicate that the GRU should not be afraid of any purges, even in the face of a series of mishaps that have occurred over the past few months. The state’s military intelligence services obediently follow the Kremlin’s instructions, thus gaining Putin’s trust. Moreover, the President’s announcement to restore the GRU to its original name constitutes a symbolic part of the Kremlin’s aggressive policy. ollowing the nerve-agent poisoning of has no possibility to antagonize and weaken FSergei Skripal, a series of cyberattacks the unit while Russia continues war activities and an unsuccessful attempt to hack the on several fronts and is already involved in an global chemical weapons watchdog in the arms race with Western countries. Netherlands, the unit was widely expected to fall into the Kremlin’s disgrace. In addition, Over the last few weeks, there emerged many Russian public opinion even speculated speculations about possible repercussions about a major conflict between the country’s that may be felt by the GRU after some facts various special services. Yet it turned out that that had been revealed by independent the service may enjoy Putin’s full trust and media or accusations made by Western support. Naturally, it is not known if such states. Nevertheless, none of them seemed approval stems from the President’s personal to exert any negative impact on the military assessment of the GRU’s hitherto activities or intelligence units; on the contrary, it was from a very strong position of the army and the time to take advantage of the “besieged Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. In fact, Putin fortress” mechanism. On November 2, www.warsawinstitute.org 3 President Vladimir Putin took part in In particular, he seemed most enthusiastic a ceremony marking the centenary of Russia’s about the GRU’s huge role in the civil war military intelligence agency. While addressing in Syria. Such state of matters seems to both current and former intelligence officers, corroborate that in the context of Russia’s he expressed his wishes on the occasion current “war” policy, military intelligence on the “centenary of the legendary GRU”. is likely to remain a vital tool to achieve Furthermore, Russian President called the all Kremlin’s goals. The Russian President GRU to be restored to its former name; it reiterated that the officers of the Imperial is noteworthy that since 2010, the unit is Russian Army, who were incorporated into officially called the Main Directorate of the the new structure after the 1917 revolution, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia ensured the continuation of the service. In his (GU) but the GRU abbreviation is still quoted opinion, they realized that “there is no greater by politicians and experts. Applauded by the shame than to betray the Fatherland and their gathered audience, Putin urged that the word comrades.” In such a manner, the President “intelligence” be brought back to the original sought to refer to the case of former Russian name. spy Sergei Skripal, called by Putin “a traitor to the motherland”, at the same time sending In addition, the Russian leader expressed his a clear warning to all officers of Russia’s special utter conviction that the service performed its forces. duties in a professional and effective manner. 5 November 2018 RUSSIA’S NEW WEAPON: PUTIN DID NOT KEEP HIS WORD According to Russian information agencies, quoting sources in the country’s armaments industry, the new generation inter-continental ballistic missile Sarmat is scheduled to enter duty no sooner than in 2021. Back in May this year, President Vladimir Putin announced that the Russian army was expected to receive a weapon in 2020. Such was the initial schedule, yet it is not known whether it would be possible to enter the system into service by 2021 as the missiles do not appear to have started testing yet. ited by official news agencies, some program is being implemented according to Cofficials in the Russian armaments the schedule constitute a kind of ”propaganda industry have claimed that the Sarmat missile of success”. According to the original plan, development plan is being implemented with the test flight would start in 2017 while only no major impediments while the two first three years later, the weapon will be deployed missiles will enter duty in 2021. The missile’s to Russian units. On May 18, such goal was serial production is also scheduled for the announced by President Vladimir Putin same year. The weapon will be first provided during a meeting with leading officials of the for a missile regiment stationed in the city of Russian defense industry held in the Black Uzhur in Krasnoyarsk Krai (eastern Russia). Sea resort of Sochi. Nevertheless, the ballistic Later, four more Sarmat missiles will be program has already encountered some deployed to the same military regiment. difficulties; although the tests began in 2017, these were merely tested launches and not So all media leaks and information that the flights. Following three attempts of that kind, www.warsawinstitute.org 4 SOURCE: STRUCTURE.MIL.RU it seems that the Sarmat missile is finally ready Avangard hypersonic missile systems. to phase out its first test flight that would probably take place in early 2019. Russia is currently modernizing its nuclear arsenal of the intercontinental range while The RS-2 Sarmat is a Russian superheavy making an attempt to diminish it, according intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) of to the provisions of the NEW START deal. a practically global range of 10,900 kilometers. Nonetheless, the treaty is bound to expire in In addition, it can pack as much as eight 2021 while the Trump administration does not megatons of energy. It is to replace the seem willing to extend its duration. According hitherto R-36M2 Voevoda ICBM (NATO: SS- to the latest data, exchanged in September 18 Satan). The Command of Russia’s Strategic 2018, Russia has deployed 1,420 nuclear Rocket Forces declared that the first Sarmat warheads and 517 strategic delivery systems regiments (with a total of 46 missiles) would (with a total of 775 launchers). In February be provided for missiles divisions in Uzhur 2018, these numbers amounted to 1,444, 527 and Dombaravoy (Orenburg Oblast). and 779 respectively. The latter is also to be equipped with the 6 November 2018 TALIBAN DELEGATION TO VISIT MOSCOW Taliban delegation will attend peace talks scheduled to take place in Moscow on November 9. Yet it seems that this time, the Russian initiative will bring about better results than the two previous ones. Moscow’s diplomatic efforts, combined with Russia’s support for the Talikhs, clearly depicts that the Kremlin may play an increasingly important role in Afghanistan. n November 6, a spokesperson for the confirmed that the delegation agreed to OTaliban’s Qatar-based political office take part in the Moscow peace talks on www.warsawinstitute.org 5 SOURCE: WIKIPEDIA.ORG November 9. A day earlier, officials from more will depend on the U.S. standpoint; Afghanistan’s High Peace Council (HPC) so far, Washington has been very critical of also declared their readiness to pay a visit to Russian involvement in Afghan affairs. In Moscow. The organization operates within the April 2017, Russia hosted a global conference governmental program whose main task is on Afghanistan; the United States was invited to support peace processes and reintegration to participate but they did not send any of former militants into Afghani society. official delegation. The Defense Intelligence Thus, Russia’s Foreign Ministry could consider Agency (DIA) reported that Russia might that the statement of Afghan President have provided Afghan Taliban with financial Ashraf Ghani was, in fact, a green light for aid and weapons. Earlier, the same accusations sending a delegation of high-level politicians had been made by U.S. Defense Secretary to the Moscow peace talks. Nonetheless, James Mattis. Back in February, U.S. the HPC cannot be referred to as an Department of State reiterated that Russia’s official governmental body.