PERSPECTIVE Preregistration: A pragmatic tool to reduce bias and calibrate confidence in scientific research Tom E. Hardwicke* & Eric-Jan Wagenmakers# Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam Scientific research is performed by fallible humans. Degrees of freedom in the construction and selection of evidence and hypotheses grant scientists considerable latitude to obtain study outcomes that align more with their preferences than is warranted. This creates a risk of bias and can lead to scientists fooling themselves and fooling others. Preregistration involves archiving study information (e.g., hypotheses, methods, and analyses) in a public registry before data are inspected. This offers two potential benefits: (1) reduce bias by ensuring that research decisions are made independently of study outcomes; and (2) calibrate confidence in research by transparently communicating information about a study’s risk of bias. In this article, we briefly review the historical evolution of preregistration in medicine, psychology, and other domains, clarify its pragmatic functions, discuss relevant meta-research, and provide recommendations for scientists and journal editors. *
[email protected] ORCID: 0000-0001-9485-4952 #
[email protected] ORCID: 0000-0003-1596-1034 “The mind lingers with pleasure upon the facts that fall happily into the embrace of the theory...There springs up...an unconscious pressing of the theory to make it fit the facts, and a pressing of the facts to make them fit the theory.” — Chamberlin (1890/1965)1 “We are human after all.” — Daft Punk (2005)2 1. Introduction Science is a human endeavour and humans are fallible. Scientists’ cognitive limitations and self-interested motivations can infuse bias into the research process, undermining the production of reliable knowledge (Box 1)3–6.