The Effects of Heuristics and Apophenia on Probabilistic Choice Zack W
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Read Volume 100 : 25Th October 2015
Read Volume 100 : 25th October 2015 Forum for Multidisciplinary Thinking !1 Read Volume 100 : 25th October 2015 Contact Page 3: Gamblers, Scientists and the Mysterious Hot Hand By George Johnsonoct Page 8: Daniel Kahneman on Intuition and the Outside View By Elliot Turner Page 13: Metaphors Are Us: War, murder, music, art. We would have none without metaphor By Robert Sapolsky Forum for Multidisciplinary Thinking !2 Read Volume 100 : 25th October 2015 Gamblers, Scientists and the Mysterious Hot Hand By George Johnsonoct 17 October 2015 IN the opening act of Tom Stoppard’s play “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead,” the two characters are passing the time by betting on the outcome of a coin toss. Guildenstern retrieves a gold piece from his bag and flips it in the air. “Heads,” Rosencrantz announces as he adds the coin to his growing collection. Guil, as he’s called for short, flips another coin. Heads. And another. Heads again. Seventy-seven heads later, as his satchel becomes emptier and emptier, he wonders: Has there been a breakdown in the laws of probability? Are supernatural forces intervening? Have he and his friend become stuck in time, reliving the same random coin flip again and again? Eighty-five heads, 89… Surely his losing streak is about to end. Psychologists who study how the human mind responds to randomness call this the gambler’s fallacy — the belief that on some cosmic plane a run of bad luck creates an imbalance that must ultimately be corrected, a pressure that must be relieved. After several bad rolls, surely the dice are primed to land in a more advantageous way. -
The Being of Analogy Noah Roderick Noah Roderick the Being of Analogy
Noah Roderick The Being of Analogy Noah Roderick Noah Roderick The Being of Analogy The Being of Modern physics replaced the dualism of matter and form with a new distinction between matter and force. In this way form was marginalized, and with it the related notion of the object. Noah Roderick’s book is a refreshing effort to reverse the consequences of this now banal mainstream materialism. Ranging from physics through literature to linguistics, spanning philosophy from East to West, and weaving it all together in remarkably lucid prose, Roderick intro- duces a new concept of analogy that sheds unfamiliar light on such thinkers as Marx, Deleuze, Goodman, Sellars, and Foucault. More than a literary device, analogy teaches us something about being itself. OPEN HUMANITIES PRESS Cover design by Katherine Gillieson · Illustration by Tammy Lu The Being of Analogy New Metaphysics Series Editors: Graham Harman and Bruno Latour The world is due for a resurgence of original speculative metaphysics. The New Metaphys- ics series aims to provide a safe house for such thinking amidst the demoralizing caution and prudence of professional academic philosophy. We do not aim to bridge the analytic- continental divide, since we are equally impatient with nail-filing analytic critique and the continental reverence for dusty textual monuments. We favor instead the spirit of the intel- lectual gambler, and wish to discover and promote authors who meet this description. Like an emergent recording company, what we seek are traces of a new metaphysical ‘sound’ from any nation of the world. The editors are open to translations of neglected metaphysical classics, and will consider secondary works of especial force and daring. -
Experimental Practices in Economics: a Methodological Challenge for Psychologists?
BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES (2001) 24, 383–451 Printed in the United States of America Experimental practices in economics: A methodological challenge for psychologists? Ralph Hertwig Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany. [email protected] Andreas Ortmann Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Charles University, and Economics Institute, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, 111 21 Prague 1, Czech Republic. [email protected] Abstract: This target article is concerned with the implications of the surprisingly different experimental practices in economics and in areas of psychology relevant to both economists and psychologists, such as behavioral decision making. We consider four features of ex- perimentation in economics, namely, script enactment, repeated trials, performance-based monetary payments, and the proscription against deception, and compare them to experimental practices in psychology, primarily in the area of behavioral decision making. Whereas economists bring a precisely defined “script” to experiments for participants to enact, psychologists often do not provide such a script, leaving participants to infer what choices the situation affords. By often using repeated experimental trials, economists allow participants to learn about the task and the environment; psychologists typically do not. Economists generally pay participants on the ba- sis of clearly defined performance criteria; psychologists usually pay a flat fee or grant a fixed amount of course credit. Economists vir- tually never deceive participants; psychologists, especially in some areas of inquiry, often do. We argue that experimental standards in economics are regulatory in that they allow for little variation between the experimental practices of individual researchers. -
Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives in Random Bernoulli Sequences
UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOT HAND FALLACY: DETECTING STREAKY ALTERNATIVES IN RANDOM BERNOULLI SEQUENCES By David M. Ritzwoller Joseph P. Romano Technical Report No. 2019-05 August 2019 Department of Statistics STANFORD UNIVERSITY Stanford, California 94305-4065 UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOT HAND FALLACY: DETECTING STREAKY ALTERNATIVES IN RANDOM BERNOULLI SEQUENCES By David M. Ritzwoller Joseph P. Romano Stanford University Technical Report No. 2019-05 August 2019 Department of Statistics STANFORD UNIVERSITY Stanford, California 94305-4065 http://statistics.stanford.edu Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives in Random Bernoulli Sequences David M. Ritzwoller, Stanford University∗ Joseph P. Romano, Stanford University August 22, 2019 Abstract We study a class of tests of the randomness of Bernoulli sequences and their application to analyses of the human tendency to perceive streaks as overly representative of positive dependence—the hot hand fallacy. In particular, we study tests of randomness (i.e., that tri- als are i.i.d.) based on test statistics that compare the proportion of successes that directly follow k consecutive successes with either the overall proportion of successes or the pro- portion of successes that directly follow k consecutive failures. We derive the asymptotic distributions of these test statistics and their permutation distributions under randomness and under general models of streakiness, which allows us to evaluate their local asymp- totic power. The results are applied to revisit tests of the hot hand fallacy implemented on data from a basketball shooting experiment, whose conclusions are disputed by Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) and Miller and Sanjurjo (2018a). We establish that the tests are insufficiently powered to distinguish randomness from alternatives consistent with the variation in NBA shooting percentages. -
Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies?
Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo ∗yz September 24, 2015 Abstract We find a subtle but substantial bias in a standard measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The mechanism is a form of selection bias, which leads the empirical probability (i.e. relative frequency) to underestimate the true probability of a given outcome, when conditioning on prior outcomes of the same kind. The biased measure has been used prominently in the literature that investigates incorrect beliefs in sequential decision making|most notably the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy. Upon correcting for the bias, the conclusions of some prominent studies in the literature are reversed. The bias also provides a structural explanation of why the belief in the law of small numbers persists, as repeated experience with finite sequences can only reinforce these beliefs, on average. JEL Classification Numbers: C12; C14; C18;C19; C91; D03; G02. Keywords: Law of Small Numbers; Alternation Bias; Negative Recency Bias; Gambler's Fal- lacy; Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect; Sequential Decision Making; Sequential Data; Selection Bias; Finite Sample Bias; Small Sample Bias. ∗Miller: Department of Decision Sciences and IGIER, Bocconi University, Sanjurjo: Fundamentos del An´alisisEcon´omico, Universidad de Alicante. Financial support from the Department of Decision Sciences at Bocconi University, and the Spanish Ministry of Economics and Competitiveness under project ECO2012-34928 is gratefully acknowledged. yBoth authors contributed equally, with names listed in alphabetical order. -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser GSEM, University of Geneva B [email protected] Professor of Statistics
Research Center for Statistics Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser GSEM, University of Geneva B [email protected] Professor of Statistics Executive Summary (September 2019) Employment I started my career as a lecturer at the London School of Economics (LSE) in 1993, the year I completed history my Ph. D. in econometrics and statistics. In 1997, I was hired as lecturer in the Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences (FPSE) of the University of Geneva. Between 1997 and 2001, my position has evolved until I became full professor (50%) in 2001 at HEC-Genève. Since 2018, I have a 100% permanent position at the Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM). Awards and I received a total of 3,277,537 CHF of personal research funding (Swiss National Science Foundation grants (SNSF) and private) for seven projects, and over 500,000 CHF of research funding for collaborative projects. I was awarded the Latzis International Prize (1995) for my Ph. D. Thesis, as well as a doctoral (1991) and a professorial (2000) fellowships from the SNSF. Research My main research interest is statistical methodology and its application in different domains. I started with the development of robust methods of estimation and inference for application in economics (welfare analysis, risk analysis) and psychology (psychometric). I am also interested in computational statistics and have developed estimation methods for complex models (latent dependence structures, missing data), time series (signal processing), and model selection in high dimensions. My publications are often co-authored with former Ph. D. students or with academic researchers in other universities and/or outside the methodological statistics field. -
Aesthetics After Finitude Anamnesis Anamnesis Means Remembrance Or Reminiscence, the Collection and Re- Collection of What Has Been Lost, Forgotten, Or Effaced
Aesthetics After Finitude Anamnesis Anamnesis means remembrance or reminiscence, the collection and re- collection of what has been lost, forgotten, or effaced. It is therefore a matter of the very old, of what has made us who we are. But anamnesis is also a work that transforms its subject, always producing something new. To recollect the old, to produce the new: that is the task of Anamnesis. a re.press series Aesthetics After Finitude Baylee Brits, Prudence Gibson and Amy Ireland, editors re.press Melbourne 2016 re.press PO Box 40, Prahran, 3181, Melbourne, Australia http://www.re-press.org © the individual contributors and re.press 2016 This work is ‘Open Access’, published under a creative commons license which means that you are free to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work as long as you clearly attribute the work to the authors, that you do not use this work for any commercial gain in any form whatso- ever and that you in no way alter, transform or build on the work outside of its use in normal aca- demic scholarship without express permission of the author (or their executors) and the publisher of this volume. For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. For more information see the details of the creative commons licence at this website: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Title: Aesthetics after finitude / Baylee Brits, Prudence Gibson and Amy Ireland, editors. ISBN: 9780980819793 (paperback) Series: Anamnesis Subjects: Aesthetics. -
Opting-In: Participation Bias in Economic Experiments*
Opting-in: Participation Bias in Economic Experiments* Robert Slonim** School of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Sydney and IZA Carmen Wang Harvard Business School Ellen Garbarino Discipline of Marketing, Business School, University of Sydney Danielle Merrett The World Bank, Sydney, Australia. Abstract Assuming individuals rationally decide whether to participate or not to participate in lab experiments, we hypothesize several non-representative biases in the characteristics of lab participants. We test the hypotheses by first collecting survey and experimental data from a typical recruitment population and then inviting them to participate in a lab experiment. The results indicate that lab participants are not representative of the target population on almost all the hypothesized characteristics, including having lower income, working fewer hours, volunteering more often, and exhibiting behaviors correlated with interest in experiments and economics. The results reinforce the commonly understood limits of laboratory research to make quantitative inferences. We also discuss several methods for addressing non-representative biases to advance laboratory methods for improving quantitative inferences and consequently increasing confidence in qualitative conclusions. Key words: Participation Bias, Laboratory Experiments *Acknowledgements: We have greatly benefitted from numerous seminar participant comments at the University of Sydney, the Winter School on Experimental Economics at the University of Sydney, the University of Technology, Sydney, the University of New South Wales and the 6th annual Australia-New Zealand Workshop in Experimental Economics. We also appreciate comments and suggestions from Paul Frijters, Simon Gaechter, Ben Greiner, Nickolas Feltovich, Nikos Nikiforakis, Andreas Ortmann, the editor and two anonymous reviewers at the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. -
Infographic I.10
The Digital Health Revolution: Leaving No One Behind The global AI in healthcare market is growing fast, with an expected increase from $4.9 billion in 2020 to $45.2 billion by 2026. There are new solutions introduced every day that address all areas: from clinical care and diagnosis, to remote patient monitoring to EHR support, and beyond. But, AI is still relatively new to the industry, and it can be difficult to determine which solutions can actually make a difference in care delivery and business operations. 59 Jan 2021 % of Americans believe returning Jan-June 2019 to pre-coronavirus life poses a risk to health and well being. 11 41 % % ...expect it will take at least 6 The pandemic has greatly increased the 65 months before things get number of US adults reporting depression % back to normal (updated April and/or anxiety.5 2021).4 Up to of consumers now interested in telehealth going forward. $250B 76 57% of providers view telehealth more of current US healthcare spend % favorably than they did before COVID-19.7 could potentially be virtualized.6 The dramatic increase in of Medicare primary care visits the conducted through 90% $3.5T telehealth has shown longevity, with rates in annual U.S. health expenditures are for people with chronic and mental health conditions. since April 2020 0.1 43.5 leveling off % % Most of these can be prevented by simple around 30%.8 lifestyle changes and regular health screenings9 Feb. 2020 Apr. 2020 OCCAM’S RAZOR • CONJUNCTION FALLACY • DELMORE EFFECT • LAW OF TRIVIALITY • COGNITIVE FLUENCY • BELIEF BIAS • INFORMATION BIAS Digital health ecosystems are transforming• AMBIGUITY BIAS • STATUS medicineQUO BIAS • SOCIAL COMPARISONfrom BIASa rea• DECOYctive EFFECT • REACTANCEdiscipline, • REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY • SYSTEM JUSTIFICATION • BACKFIRE EFFECT • ENDOWMENT EFFECT • PROCESSING DIFFICULTY EFFECT • PSEUDOCERTAINTY EFFECT • DISPOSITION becoming precise, preventive,EFFECT • ZERO-RISK personalized, BIAS • UNIT BIAS • IKEA EFFECT and • LOSS AVERSION participatory. -
Gambler's Fallacy, Hot Hand Belief, and the Time of Patterns
Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 5, No. 2, April 2010, pp. 124–132 Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns Yanlong Sun∗ and Hongbin Wang University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Abstract The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern composition, two different statistics (mean time and waiting time) can arise from the same independent Bernoulli trials. When the coin is fair, the mean time is equal for all patterns of the same length but the waiting time is the longest for streak patterns. When the coin is biased, both mean time and waiting time change more rapidly with the probability of heads for a streak pattern than for a non-streak pattern. These facts might provide a new insight for understanding why people view streak patterns as rare and remarkable. The statistics of waiting time may not justify the prediction by the gambler’s fallacy, but paying attention to streaks in the hot hand belief appears to be meaningful in detecting the changes in the underlying process. Keywords: gambler’s fallacy; hot hand belief; heuristics; mean time; waiting time. 1 Introduction is the representativeness heuristic, which attributes both the gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief to a false The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand belief have been belief of the “law of small numbers” (Gilovich, et al., classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of 1985; Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). -
UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations
UCLA UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations Title Bias Analyses in Population-Based Studies of Parkinson’s Disease Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/37k4j1j0 Author Cui, Xin Publication Date 2015 Peer reviewed|Thesis/dissertation eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Bias Analyses in Population-Based Studies of Parkinson’s Disease A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Epidemiology by Xin Cui 2015 - 1 - © Copyright by Xin Cui 2015 - 2 - ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Bias Analyses in Population-Based Studies of Parkinson’s Disease by Xin Cui Doctor of Philosophy in Epidemiology University of California, Los Angeles, 2015 Professor Beate Ritz, Chair This dissertation work investigates two types of biases in population-based studies of Parkinson’s disease (PD), one is survivor bias in estimating the association between PD and cancer, the other is exposure misclassification due to residential mobility and time-varying exposure. Negative associations between PD and cancer have been found in epidemiological studies. Several mechanisms were proposed to explain such reported inverse associations. In the first and second part of this work we propose two similar survivor bias mechanisms that may account for the observed negative associations with cancer both prior to and after the diagnosis of PD as an alternative explanation. Using a large Danish population-based case-control study of ii Parkinson’s disease as an example, we utilize causal theory, Monte Carlo methods and inverse probability-of-censoring weights techniques to quantitatively investigate how the observed negative association can be explained by the hypothesized bias.