Apophenia and Anesthesia: How We Sometimes Change Our Practice
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Read Volume 100 : 25Th October 2015
Read Volume 100 : 25th October 2015 Forum for Multidisciplinary Thinking !1 Read Volume 100 : 25th October 2015 Contact Page 3: Gamblers, Scientists and the Mysterious Hot Hand By George Johnsonoct Page 8: Daniel Kahneman on Intuition and the Outside View By Elliot Turner Page 13: Metaphors Are Us: War, murder, music, art. We would have none without metaphor By Robert Sapolsky Forum for Multidisciplinary Thinking !2 Read Volume 100 : 25th October 2015 Gamblers, Scientists and the Mysterious Hot Hand By George Johnsonoct 17 October 2015 IN the opening act of Tom Stoppard’s play “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead,” the two characters are passing the time by betting on the outcome of a coin toss. Guildenstern retrieves a gold piece from his bag and flips it in the air. “Heads,” Rosencrantz announces as he adds the coin to his growing collection. Guil, as he’s called for short, flips another coin. Heads. And another. Heads again. Seventy-seven heads later, as his satchel becomes emptier and emptier, he wonders: Has there been a breakdown in the laws of probability? Are supernatural forces intervening? Have he and his friend become stuck in time, reliving the same random coin flip again and again? Eighty-five heads, 89… Surely his losing streak is about to end. Psychologists who study how the human mind responds to randomness call this the gambler’s fallacy — the belief that on some cosmic plane a run of bad luck creates an imbalance that must ultimately be corrected, a pressure that must be relieved. After several bad rolls, surely the dice are primed to land in a more advantageous way. -
2020 WGEA Regional Meeting Abstract Compendium
2020 WGEA Regional Meeting Abstract Compendium Table of Contents Message from WGEA Chair ........................................................................................................... 2 Message from WGEA Conference/ Host Chairs ............................................................................ 3 Special Thanks and Acknowledgments .......................................................................................... 4 WGEA Awards ............................................................................................................................... 5 Innovation Abstracts ....................................................................................................................... 6 Research Abstracts ........................................................................................................................ 85 Small Group, Workshop and Panel Discussion Abstracts .......................................................... 155 List of WGEA Steering Committee members ............................................................................ 273 List of WGEA Planning Committee and Subcommittees members ........................................... 274 2020 WGEA Reviewer List ........................................................................................................ 275 1 Message from WGEA Chair On behalf of the Western Group on Educational Affairs (WGEA) Steering Committee, I welcome you to the WGEA 2020 Annual Spring Meeting, Finding Common Ground. We will highlight the following -
The Status Quo Bias and Decisions to Withdraw Life-Sustaining Treatment
HUMANITIES | MEDICINE AND SOCIETY The status quo bias and decisions to withdraw life-sustaining treatment n Cite as: CMAJ 2018 March 5;190:E265-7. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.171005 t’s not uncommon for physicians and impasse. One factor that hasn’t been host of psychological phenomena that surrogate decision-makers to disagree studied yet is the role that cognitive cause people to make irrational deci- about life-sustaining treatment for biases might play in surrogate decision- sions, referred to as “cognitive biases.” Iincapacitated patients. Several studies making regarding withdrawal of life- One cognitive bias that is particularly show physicians perceive that nonbenefi- sustaining treatment. Understanding the worth exploring in the context of surrogate cial treatment is provided quite frequently role that these biases might play may decisions regarding life-sustaining treat- in their intensive care units. Palda and col- help improve communication between ment is the status quo bias. This bias, a leagues,1 for example, found that 87% of clinicians and surrogates when these con- decision-maker’s preference for the cur- physicians believed that futile treatment flicts arise. rent state of affairs,3 has been shown to had been provided in their ICU within the influence decision-making in a wide array previous year. (The authors in this study Status quo bias of contexts. For example, it has been cited equated “futile” with “nonbeneficial,” The classic model of human decision- as a mechanism to explain patient inertia defined as a treatment “that offers no rea- making is the rational choice or “rational (why patients have difficulty changing sonable hope of recovery or improvement, actor” model, the view that human beings their behaviour to improve their health), or because the patient is permanently will choose the option that has the best low organ-donation rates, low retirement- unable to experience any benefit.”) chance of satisfying their preferences. -
Pat Croskerry MD Phd
Thinking (and the factors that influence it) Pat Croskerry MD PhD Scottish Intensive Care Society St Andrews, January 2011 RECOGNIZED Intuition Pattern Pattern Initial Recognition Executive Dysrationalia Calibration Output information Processor override T override Repetition NOT Analytical RECOGNIZED reasoning Dual Process Model Medical Decision Making Intuitive Analytical Orthodox Medical Decision Making (Analytical) Rational Medical Decision-Making • Knowledge base • Differential diagnosis • Best evidence • Reviews, meta-analysis • Biostatistics • Publication bias, citation bias • Test selection and interpretation • Bayesian reasoning • Hypothetico-deductive reasoning .„Cognitive thought is the tip of an enormous iceberg. It is the rule of thumb among cognitive scientists that unconscious thought is 95% of all thought – .this 95% below the surface of conscious awareness shapes and structures all conscious thought‟ Lakoff and Johnson, 1999 Rational blind-spots • Framing • Context • Ambient conditions • Individual factors Individual Factors • Knowledge • Intellect • Personality • Critical thinking ability • Decision making style • Gender • Ageing • Circadian type • Affective state • Fatigue, sleep deprivation, sleep debt • Cognitive load tolerance • Susceptibility to group pressures • Deference to authority Intelligence • Measurement of intelligence? • IQ most widely used barometer of intellect and cognitive functioning • IQ is strongest single predictor of job performance and success • IQ tests highly correlated with each other • Population -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
Critical Thinking Education and Debiasing
Critical Thinking Education and Debiasing TIM KENYON University of Waterloo Department of Philosophy 200 University Avenue West Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 Canada [email protected] GUILLAUME BEAULAC Yale University Department of Philosophy 344 College St. New Haven, CT. 06511-6629 USA [email protected] Abstract: There are empirical Résumé: Des données empiriques grounds to doubt the effectiveness of nous permettent de douter de a common and intuitive approach to l'efficacité d'une approche commune teaching debiasing strategies in et intuitive pour enseigner des critical thinking courses. We stratégies de correction de biais summarize some of the grounds cognitifs dans les cours de pensée before suggesting a broader critique. Nous résumons certains de taxonomy of debiasing strategies. ces résultats empiriques avant de This four-level taxonomy enables a suggérer une taxonomie plus useful diagnosis of biasing factors étendue de ces stratégies de and situations, and illuminates more correction de biais. Cette taxonomie strategies for more effective bias à quatre niveaux permet un mitigation located in the shaping of diagnostic utile de facteurs causant situational factors and reasoning les biais et elle met en évidence infrastructure—sometimes called davantage de stratégies permettant la “nudges” in the literature. The correction plus efficace de biais, question, we contend, then becomes stratégies situées dans des mesures how best to teach the construction modifiant les infrastructures et les and use of such infrastructures. environnements cognitifs ("nudge" dans la littérature). Nous soutenons que la question porte dès lors sur les meilleures façons d'enseigner la construction et l'utilisation de ces infrastructures. Keywords: Critical thinking, biases, debiasing, education, nudges © Tim Kenyon and Guillaume Beaulac, Informal Logic, Vol. -
The Being of Analogy Noah Roderick Noah Roderick the Being of Analogy
Noah Roderick The Being of Analogy Noah Roderick Noah Roderick The Being of Analogy The Being of Modern physics replaced the dualism of matter and form with a new distinction between matter and force. In this way form was marginalized, and with it the related notion of the object. Noah Roderick’s book is a refreshing effort to reverse the consequences of this now banal mainstream materialism. Ranging from physics through literature to linguistics, spanning philosophy from East to West, and weaving it all together in remarkably lucid prose, Roderick intro- duces a new concept of analogy that sheds unfamiliar light on such thinkers as Marx, Deleuze, Goodman, Sellars, and Foucault. More than a literary device, analogy teaches us something about being itself. OPEN HUMANITIES PRESS Cover design by Katherine Gillieson · Illustration by Tammy Lu The Being of Analogy New Metaphysics Series Editors: Graham Harman and Bruno Latour The world is due for a resurgence of original speculative metaphysics. The New Metaphys- ics series aims to provide a safe house for such thinking amidst the demoralizing caution and prudence of professional academic philosophy. We do not aim to bridge the analytic- continental divide, since we are equally impatient with nail-filing analytic critique and the continental reverence for dusty textual monuments. We favor instead the spirit of the intel- lectual gambler, and wish to discover and promote authors who meet this description. Like an emergent recording company, what we seek are traces of a new metaphysical ‘sound’ from any nation of the world. The editors are open to translations of neglected metaphysical classics, and will consider secondary works of especial force and daring. -
The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives in Random Bernoulli Sequences
UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOT HAND FALLACY: DETECTING STREAKY ALTERNATIVES IN RANDOM BERNOULLI SEQUENCES By David M. Ritzwoller Joseph P. Romano Technical Report No. 2019-05 August 2019 Department of Statistics STANFORD UNIVERSITY Stanford, California 94305-4065 UNCERTAINTY IN THE HOT HAND FALLACY: DETECTING STREAKY ALTERNATIVES IN RANDOM BERNOULLI SEQUENCES By David M. Ritzwoller Joseph P. Romano Stanford University Technical Report No. 2019-05 August 2019 Department of Statistics STANFORD UNIVERSITY Stanford, California 94305-4065 http://statistics.stanford.edu Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives in Random Bernoulli Sequences David M. Ritzwoller, Stanford University∗ Joseph P. Romano, Stanford University August 22, 2019 Abstract We study a class of tests of the randomness of Bernoulli sequences and their application to analyses of the human tendency to perceive streaks as overly representative of positive dependence—the hot hand fallacy. In particular, we study tests of randomness (i.e., that tri- als are i.i.d.) based on test statistics that compare the proportion of successes that directly follow k consecutive successes with either the overall proportion of successes or the pro- portion of successes that directly follow k consecutive failures. We derive the asymptotic distributions of these test statistics and their permutation distributions under randomness and under general models of streakiness, which allows us to evaluate their local asymp- totic power. The results are applied to revisit tests of the hot hand fallacy implemented on data from a basketball shooting experiment, whose conclusions are disputed by Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) and Miller and Sanjurjo (2018a). We establish that the tests are insufficiently powered to distinguish randomness from alternatives consistent with the variation in NBA shooting percentages. -
Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies?
Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo ∗yz September 24, 2015 Abstract We find a subtle but substantial bias in a standard measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The mechanism is a form of selection bias, which leads the empirical probability (i.e. relative frequency) to underestimate the true probability of a given outcome, when conditioning on prior outcomes of the same kind. The biased measure has been used prominently in the literature that investigates incorrect beliefs in sequential decision making|most notably the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy. Upon correcting for the bias, the conclusions of some prominent studies in the literature are reversed. The bias also provides a structural explanation of why the belief in the law of small numbers persists, as repeated experience with finite sequences can only reinforce these beliefs, on average. JEL Classification Numbers: C12; C14; C18;C19; C91; D03; G02. Keywords: Law of Small Numbers; Alternation Bias; Negative Recency Bias; Gambler's Fal- lacy; Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect; Sequential Decision Making; Sequential Data; Selection Bias; Finite Sample Bias; Small Sample Bias. ∗Miller: Department of Decision Sciences and IGIER, Bocconi University, Sanjurjo: Fundamentos del An´alisisEcon´omico, Universidad de Alicante. Financial support from the Department of Decision Sciences at Bocconi University, and the Spanish Ministry of Economics and Competitiveness under project ECO2012-34928 is gratefully acknowledged. yBoth authors contributed equally, with names listed in alphabetical order. -
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT. -
Communication Science to the Public
David M. Berube North Carolina State University ▪ HOW WE COMMUNICATE. In The Age of American Unreason, Jacoby posited that it trickled down from the top, fueled by faux-populist politicians striving to make themselves sound approachable rather than smart. (Jacoby, 2008). EX: The average length of a sound bite by a presidential candidate in 1968 was 42.3 seconds. Two decades later, it was 9.8 seconds. Today, it’s just a touch over seven seconds and well on its way to being supplanted by 140/280- character Twitter bursts. ▪ DATA FRAMING. ▪ When asked if they truly believe what scientists tell them, NEW ANTI- only 36 percent of respondents said yes. Just 12 percent expressed strong confidence in the press to accurately INTELLECTUALISM: report scientific findings. ▪ ROLE OF THE PUBLIC. A study by two Princeton University researchers, Martin TRENDS Gilens and Benjamin Page, released Fall 2014, tracked 1,800 U.S. policy changes between 1981 and 2002, and compared the outcome with the expressed preferences of median- income Americans, the affluent, business interests and powerful lobbies. They concluded that average citizens “have little or no independent influence” on policy in the U.S., while the rich and their hired mouthpieces routinely get their way. “The majority does not rule,” they wrote. ▪ Anti-intellectualism and suspicion (trends). ▪ Trump world – outsiders/insiders. ▪ Erasing/re-writing history – damnatio memoriae. ▪ False news. ▪ Infoxication (CC) and infobesity. ▪ Aggregators and managed reality. ▪ Affirmation and confirmation bias. ▪ Negotiating reality. ▪ New tribalism is mostly ideational not political. ▪ Unspoken – guns, birth control, sexual harassment, race… “The amount of technical information is doubling every two years.