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Economic Integration of Refugees in the Countries of First Asylum Mission: Possible?

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Economic Integration of Refugees in the Countries of First Asylum Mission: Possible? 1 Thinking ahead for Europe Economic Integration of Refugees in the Countries of First Asylum Mission: Possible? MEDAM-EMNES conference CEPS_thinktank www.ceps.eu 2 Thinking ahead for Europe Economic links between the European Union and the southern Mediterranean region Matthias Busse and Nadzeya Laurentsyeva MEDAM-EMNES conference CEPS_thinktank www.ceps.eu 3 Southern Mediterranean – EU links Countries in focus: Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon EU accounts for • 40% of SM trade • 27% of FDI stocks in SM • 36% of SM-born residing abroad • 30% of remittances inflows in SM Southern Mediterranean region 4 as a destination for migrants 10000000 Origin of immigrants residing in SM, 2015 8000000 State of Palestine 6000000 Syria 15% 1% 4000000 Iraq 2% 3% 2000000 Egypt 44% 7% 0 Somalia 1990 1995 2000 2005 2015 Sudan 28% Other immigrants in SM from Syria from Palestine from Iraq Other countries Source: Based on estimates of bilateral migration stocks by the UN Immigrants from Palestine, Iraq, and Syria represent more than 80% of all immigrants residing in the southern Mediterranean countries Strongly affected by the recent war in Syria 5 Main hosting countries in 2015 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 Algeria Egypt Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Tunisia Syria/Iraq/Palestine 2015 Other 2015 2005 Source: Based on estimates of bilateral migration stocks by the UN 6 Ports of illegal migration to the EU Source: Frontex 8 Integration of immigrants in SM countries Why also EU concern? • Global responsibility sharing • Cooperation to prevent irregular migration Possible tools • Development aid, Migration partnership framework since 2016 • Existing trade and migration links with the EU? 9 Migration links between the EU and SM Emigrants from SM in the EU 6000000 Destination regions of SM emigrants, 1% 5000000 2015 Asia 3% 4000000 6% Europe 3000000 Northern America 2000000 Africa 36% 54% 1000000 Oceania 0 Latin America and the 1990 1995 2000 2005 2015 Caribbean Emigrants from SM in EU29 Source: Based on estimates of bilateral migration stocks by the UN 10 Potential to engage diaspora? Number of immigrants in the EU and remittances from the EU, 2015 3000000 1.4 2500000 1.2 1 2000000 0.8 1500000 0.6 Number 1000000 0.4 500000 0.2 Remittances/exports 0 0 Algeria Egypt Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Syria Tunisia Number of immigrants Remittances/exports Source: Based on estimates of bilateral migration stocks by the UN and the World Bank bilateral remittance matrix Note: Remittances to the EU are relative to the total exports from a SM country to the EU 11 Potential to build on existing instruments for legal migration? Composition of legal migration from the SM to the EU, cumulative flows Source: Eurostat [migr_resfirst], data on issued first residence permits with duration >= 6 months 12 Trade links between the EU and SM For the EU the SM region is of less economic importance • 4.5% of EU (external) trade • ~0% of inwards FDI stock • ~1% of outward FDI stock For the SM region the EU is crucial • 40% of trade conducted with EU • 27% of FDI inward stock stems from the EU 13 Euro-Med Trade Breakdown SM exports to the EU SM imports from the EU Food Beverages and tobacco Crude materials (excl. fuels) Mineral fuels Animal and vegetable oils Chemicals Manufactured goods Machinery and transport equipment Miscellaneous manufactured articles Other Source: Based on data from UNCTAD 14 Southern Mediterranean Exports, in % of GDP 45 83.3 40 8.0 7.1 35 59.0 30 79.0 44.5 25 66.7 20 15 36.9 10 54.6 5 0 Tunisia Libya Morocco Algeria Egypt Lebanon Jordan Syria SM region Exports to the EU Exports to non-EU Source: Based on data from UNCTAD 15 Trend of merchandise Euro-Med trade 140 100 90 120 80 100 70 60 80 50 60 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SM exports to the EU (lhs), €bn SM imports from the EU (lhs), €bn EU share exports (rhs) EU share imports (rhs) Source: Based on data from UNCTAD 16 EU’s influence via trade policy • Trade Liberalisation • Association Agreements • Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) • Short-term support olive oil quota for Tunisia • Liberalisation impact on specific sectors • Import competition • Export opportunities • Generating growth and creating jobs? How regional integration leads to youth employment in the Euro- Mediterranean region GEM-E3-MED implementation EMNES-MEDAM Workshop, 08 June, 2017 Rym Ayadi, Professor, HEC Montreal, Founding President EMEA, and Scientific Coordinator, EMNES Table of Contents 1. Unemployment situation in the Euro-Med 2. Regional integration and job creation 3. Regional integration scenarios 4. Impacts of regional integration on employment and youth employment 5. Conclusions 2 Unemployment situation in the MENA region Source: World Economic Forum (2012) 3 Unemployment situation in EU 28 (2015) 25 20 15 Unemployment rate - 2015 10 5 0 Source: own elaboration using ILOs’ data. ISO 3-digit country codes are used to identify the countries. Bulgaria, CYP: Cyprus, CZE: Czech Republic, DEU: Germany, DNK: Denmark, ESP: Spain, FIN: Finland, FRA: France, GBR: United Kingdom, GRC: Greece, HRV:AUT Croatia, HUN: Hungary, IRL: Ireland, ITA: Italy, LTU: Lithuania, LUX: Luxembourg, LVA: Latvia, MLT; Malta, NLD: Netherlands, POL: Poland,BEL PRT: Portugal, ROU: Romania, SVK: Slovak Republic, SVN: Slovenia, SWE: Sweden. BGR CYP CZE DEU DNK ESP EST FIN FRA GBR GRC HRV HUN IRL ITA LTU LUX LVA MLT NLD POL AUT: Austria, BEL: Belgium, BGR: PRT ROU SVK SVN SWE 4 Unemployment situation in South Med (2015) 30 20 Unemployment rate - 2015 10 0 Source: own elaboration using ILOs’ data. ISO 3-digit country codes are used to identify the countries. ALB: Albania, BIH: Bosnia ALBand Herzegovina, DZA: Algeria, EGY: Egypt, ISR: Israel, JOR: Jordan, LBN: Lebanon, LBY: Libya, MAR: Morocco, MNE: Montenegro, MRT: Mauritania, PSE: Palestine, SYR: Syria, TUN: Tunisia. BIH DZA EGY ISR JOR LBN LBY MAR MNE MRT PSE SYR TUN TUR 5 Unemployment of youth in Euro-Med (2015) 80 > 3 times BIH 60 > 2 times LBY ESP GRC MKD MRT SRB HRV ITA PSE MNE 40 > adult EGY JOR TUN CYP ALB PRT DZASYR FRA SVK FIN ROU BGR LBN SWE BELIRL POL MAR Youth Unemployment rate Unemployment Youth LUX HUN LTU 20 SVNTUR GBR LVA CZE MLT EST AUTDNK NLD DEUISR 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Adult unemployment rate Source: own elaboration using ILOs’ data. 6 Key issues (1) • High unemployment rates among the youth have important economic and social consequences: • On the one hand, labour market conditions is one of the most relevant pull factors to explain migration flows from countries to others with better labour prospects. In fact, immigration among youth is clearly increasing and the destination areas are also changing from traditional ones and not only addressing EU countries as the main destination (United Nations, 2016). • On the other hand, the high unemployment rates are also discouraging youth to participate in the labour market (European Training Foundation, 2015b) and, in fact, NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) rates are also very high in the region. For instance, and according to latest estimates of the ILO (2014), the NEET rate for the age group 15-24 in Algeria is 23%, in Egypt is 28%, Israel 16% and 25% in Jordan and Tunisia, while in the European Union is around 12.5%. 7 Stock of emigrants as share of total pop (2013) .2 .15 Stock of emigrants/population - 2013 .1 .05 0 Source: own elaboration from World Bank data. Value for Palestine is 96% (not shown in the figure). ALB BIH DZA EGY ISR JOR LBN LBY MAR MNE MRT SYR TUN 8 TUR Main destination countries of emigrants Source: own elaboration from World Bank Bilateral Migration Matrix 2013 9 Despite the immensity of this human suffering, searching for safety and protection is increasingly perilous. “At sea, a frightening number of refugees and migrants are dying each year; on land, people fleeing war are finding their way blocked by closed borders.” UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi The vast majority of the world’s refugees – nine out of 10 – are hosted in the global South, led by Turkey, Pakistan and Lebanon. Half are children, and half come from just three war-torn countries – Syria, Afghanistan and Somalia. View the Global Trends 2015 report to learn more about those who have been forced to flee. Global refugee and displacement phenomenon 10 Key issues (2) • A striking feature is that education is not a guarantee against unemployment: Ø Data suggest that youth unemployment rate in the region increases consistently with the level of education attained. In countries such as Egypt, Jordan or Tunisia, youngsters having completed their tertiary education have been found two to three times more likely to be unemployed than those with primary education or less (ILO, 2015). Ø This contrasts the situation in most developed and developing regions where unemployment decreases as the level of education rises. Ø The main reason for these high unemployment rates for more educated workers is the existence of skill mismatches in labour markets across the region (Ayadi and El Mehdi, 2013). 11 Key issues (3) • Labour demand remains the prime determinant of how much and what type of jobs are created – but constraints are persistent • First, macroeconomic conditions and the institutional frameworks are not supportive for business development and job creation, as regularly highlighted in the World Bank Doing Business reports or by the World Economic Forum (2016).
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